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3 minutes ago, need2know said:

If the eagles had a good backup last year they would have beaten the Seahawks.   And yes wentz has been hurt 3 out of 4 years.   Its totally the right move.  I would much rather have an upside cheap qb like hurts than some other dart throw draft pick if you need a qb.  Eagles fans are mad at where we picked hurts and say we could have gotten a backup qb later.   Eason, fromm and everyone else is far behind hurts imo.   Hes a great player, leader, person and has shown the ability to get better.   Lead 2 high powered teams to great records.  Who knows if wentz gets hurt again they may have found their next qb in round 2.

The only thing giving me pause is that there's been some work/research analysis done on QBs that aren't first-rounders, and it's not a good hit rate for success. Generally, there's a ton of failure once you're out of the first, meaning that the NFL already puts a premium on QBs so that they really don't miss any, Tom Brady and a few others notwithstanding (Russell Wilson, too).

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There is similar analytics with edge players, but I think they both get to the same point for different reasons. Edge guys, there is a physical minimum you must meet to beat NFL tackles, and if you ha

Just don’t think he has the arm talent to be a reliable starter long term. 

This debacle makes me rethink my vote on the most disfunctional franchise thread.  Drafting hurts in the 2nd last year was already a questionable move, but not going all in on him after trading Wentz

1 minute ago, rockaction said:

The only thing giving me pause is that there's been some work/research analysis done on QBs that aren't first-rounders, and it's not a good hit rate for success. Generally, there's a ton of failure once you're out of the first, meaning that the NFL already puts a premium on QBs so that they really don't miss any, Tom Brady and a few others notwithstanding (Russell Wilson, too).

yeah and others dont like his throwing motion and his ability to read the field is not the best.  right now.  but hes looked better the past 2 seasons.  he gets a bad rap cause he lost his job.  to an amazing top 5 draft pick in tua.  Im a believer.  also a bama fan so I am biased.  But hes a got a great pedigree, work ethic, etc.  everything you want to see in a player that could take some serious next steps.

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31 minutes ago, rockaction said:

The only thing giving me pause is that there's been some work/research analysis done on QBs that aren't first-rounders, and it's not a good hit rate for success. Generally, there's a ton of failure once you're out of the first, meaning that the NFL already puts a premium on QBs so that they really don't miss any, Tom Brady and a few others notwithstanding (Russell Wilson, too).

There is similar analytics with edge players, but I think they both get to the same point for different reasons. Edge guys, there is a physical minimum you must meet to beat NFL tackles, and if you have those traits, the NFL will find you , and overdraft you. QBs, I have a suspicion that QBs taken after the 1st are a lot less likely to have the team commit to them, the way a team really needs to for a QB to succeed. If Minshew is only average this year, he's not guaranteed 2021 the way Daniel Jones is, right? Still, no matter the reason, QBs that go later rarely pan out.  

26 minutes ago, need2know said:

yeah and others dont like his throwing motion and his ability to read the field is not the best.  right now.  but hes looked better the past 2 seasons.  he gets a bad rap cause he lost his job.  to an amazing top 5 draft pick in tua.  Im a believer.  also a bama fan so I am biased.  But hes a got a great pedigree, work ethic, etc.  everything you want to see in a player that could take some serious next steps.

I will always believe people wrote off Hurts when he left Alabama, and it's just confirmation bias for a LOT of evaluators that we've been reading. They're looking for bad. And maybe the NFL is guilty as well. Why was Jordan Love taken over Hurts? I don't get it. 

Every negative I have seen with Hurts, frankly, looks a lot like the same negatives we get every time an athletic running QB appears. Can't read defenses, gets stuck on first read, etc. That's all fixable. And probably overrated. We were told Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson needed YEARS on the bench. Not for nothing, but if you want to find some really stupid takes, go looking at scouting profiles for some really successful QBs that were cursed with the ability to run.  

To me, toughness, accuracy cannot be coached. By ANY accuracy analytics, and I've seen a few, Burrow/Tua/Hurts are in a class all by themselves. Hurts was incredibly accurate, and while that category gets mentioned with Tua/Burrow, you never read that about Hurts as a major strength, it gets mentioned in passing. 

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29 minutes ago, massraider said:

There is similar analytics with edge players, but I think they both get to the same point for different reasons. Edge guys, there is a physical minimum you must meet to beat NFL tackles, and if you have those traits, the NFL will find you , and overdraft you. QBs, I have a suspicion that QBs taken after the 1st are a lot less likely to have the team commit to them, the way a team really needs to for a QB to succeed. If Minshew is only average this year, he's not guaranteed 2021 the way Daniel Jones is, right? Still, no matter the reason, QBs that go later rarely pan out.  

I will always believe people wrote off Hurts when he left Alabama, and it's just confirmation bias for a LOT of evaluators that we've been reading. They're looking for bad. And maybe the NFL is guilty as well. Why was Jordan Love taken over Hurts? I don't get it. 

Every negative I have seen with Hurts, frankly, looks a lot like the same negatives we get every time an athletic running QB appears. Can't read defenses, gets stuck on first read, etc. That's all fixable. And probably overrated. We were told Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson needed YEARS on the bench. Not for nothing, but if you want to find some really stupid takes, go looking at scouting profiles for some really successful QBs that were cursed with the ability to run.  

To me, toughness, accuracy cannot be coached. By ANY accuracy analytics, and I've seen a few, Burrow/Tua/Hurts are in a class all by themselves. Hurts was incredibly accurate, and while that category gets mentioned with Tua/Burrow, you never read that about Hurts as a major strength, it gets mentioned in passing. 

What's bigger to me is how he handled everything thrown at him and came out of it stronger.   When he came back into the sec championship game for a hurt Tua and beat Georgia cold off the bench i was so impressed.   Then he transfers to Oklahoma and puts up those numbers in a totally new environment in one year?   He's underrated and I hope his success continues.

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8 hours ago, need2know said:

What's bigger to me is how he handled everything thrown at him and came out of it stronger.   When he came back into the sec championship game for a hurt Tua and beat Georgia cold off the bench i was so impressed.   Then he transfers to Oklahoma and puts up those numbers in a totally new environment in one year?   He's underrated and I hope his success continues.

Looking at Wentz's contract, which is the biggest factor in assessing Hurts' future, the various paths to Hurts gaining relevance look pretty glum.

  • The most realistic is Hurts outplaying Wentz, and taking the job outright, and Wentz being traded or cut. And THAT seems tough to project. Wentz' contract is such that he's not even a possible cut until two seasons from now, and that would still be 24 mill in dead cap.  Really, three years, they would gain 6 mill in cap space in 2022. If Wentz plays bad enough to be benched or cut in two years time, who is to say that the staff that drafted Hurts is still there? And what are chances Wentz plays that badly? 
  • The quickest way is a Wentz injury, but how likely is a career-ending injury, or even a season-ending? 
  • Hurts gets traded to a team that commits to him--This seems like the most likely for him to be relevant soon, barring a Wentz injury. How long before PHI is willing to move him, and what are chances he showed enough that his value reaches a 1st rounder, or whatever PHI needs to move him? We've seen an influx of young QBs teams have invested in, and we are gonna add two or three more next year. A lot of moving parts needs to click into place for Hurts to be traded to a team, and handed a starting job. 

I'm looking for an avenue for Hurts to help someone's fantasy team in the near future, and it could be three years before you get a decent look at him. That's a roster spot that cold be another QB who appears out of the blue, or comes out in the draft, that has a clearer path to starting. 

He can get stashed on a taxi squad, for a year or two, that's possible, but how high can you take a guy that has a slim chance of seeing the field for two years?

 

I love the move for Philly, a cheap, dynamic backup, but you gotta be willing to roster this guy in fantasy and forget about him for two years. 

Edited by massraider
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4 minutes ago, massraider said:

but you gotta be willing to roster this guy in fantasy and forget about him for two years. 

Bloom said that in his post-draft top 100. Barring injury, he costs a roster spot for a long wait.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Bloom said that in his post-draft top 100. Barring injury, he costs a roster spot for a long wait.

He’s nothing more than a lottery ticket. Or a bad team drafts him, and holds him for a while until they luck into something.

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Or Wentz tears an ACL week 7 and Hurts goes on a fantasy tear as QBs who can run often do. Then your 3rd-4th round rookie pick and taxi squad investment looks genius. 

You just never know. But seeing the 6th round scrub WR types going in my drafts in the 3rd rounds (all my leagues are devy weakened) I gladly took Hurts in the 3rd.

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This is based on nothing but gut feeling, but of all the league's starting QBs, Wentz strikes me as one of the most likely to pull a Luck in the future. He is very family- and faith-oriented and I could see him deciding to get out before his body is totally ruined and devote his time to his charities and such. If Eagles' management also senses this, their rationale for the Hurts pick makes more sense. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

 

Quote

Eagles coach Doug Pederson said No. 53 overall pick Jalen Hurts "needs to learn and pick up our system."

"Early on in this season, teams are going to have to rely on their veterans, and Nate (Sudfeld) is one of those guys for us," Pederson said. "I have a ton of confidence in Nate becoming our backup QB." He also touched on Hurts needing to "learn and pick up" Philadelphia's offensive system. Zoom meetings shouldn't halt any rookie from learning their playbook, but Hurts' lack of on-field reps with the Eagles' surrounding cast could push the second-rounder behind 26-year-old Sudfeld to open the year. This could also halt Hurts' alleged sprinkling of gadget plays on offense.

SOURCE: Zack Berman on Twitter

May 19, 2020, 11:19 AM ET

 

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posted this in the draft thread, and figures it bolongs here also.

 

question to all you drafters about Hurts.

is the team with wentz taking him for a backup.  or are qb hungry other teams throwing a stash dart?

i am a wentz owner and feel having hurts is mandatory.  42, is where i plan on taking him, hopefully.

however if the trend is that he is being drafted more as a handcuff, then i may be able to wait on hurts until 56, and use 42 on some other rb/wr faller.

Edited by grateful zed
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2 hours ago, grateful zed said:

posted this in the draft thread, and figures it bolongs here also.

 

question to all you drafters about Hurts.

is the team with wentz taking him for a backup.  or are qb hungry other teams throwing a stash dart?

i am a wentz owner and feel having hurts is mandatory.  42, is where i plan on taking him, hopefully.

however if the trend is that he is being handcuffed, then i may be able to wait on hem and use that pick on some other rb/wr faller.

42?  What does that mean?

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3 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

3.14 third round, last pick.

fantasypros has him at 39, and im pretty sure gronk and some defs go ahiead of him.

Unless its SF, I think you'll be fine @ 42

I guess I am used to IDP. If its not, you likely need to move up

Edited by Ben & Jerry's
IDP considerations
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2 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

im feel comfortable at 42, but hoping to wait until 56.  :scared:

Just looked at Dynasty ranks for rookie drafts and they have him at 42 haha.  It'll be close but seems like the perfect spot to pick him in for you as a wentz owner.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

Just looked at Dynasty ranks for rookie drafts and they have him at 42 haha.  It'll be close but seems like the perfect spot to pick him in for you as a wentz owner.

yeah, good call.  my team is winning now, and the smart play is to not make  mistakes.  missing him will haunt me, as foles is my only backup.  :(

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1 minute ago, grateful zed said:

yeah, good call.  my team is winning now, and the smart play is to not make  mistakes.  missing him will haunt me, as foles is my only backup.  :(

Oh definitely then if Foles is your only backup.  Curious now if he gets to you at 42, when's your draft?

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Oh definitely then if Foles is your only backup.  Curious now if he gets to you at 42, when's your draft?

i could take him at 28 to be sure. draft is in late sept.

in a pinch, i have oj howard as trade bait that could land me someone like cousins.

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2 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

however, if his inflated adp is caused by owners in my same situation, i could wait on him.

the same anomaly occurs with rb handcuffs, they can have an inflated adp.

I would not risk that at all.  The names ahead of him aren't that impressive either.  If you lose Carson your season is done. 

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Just now, grateful zed said:

i could take him at 28 to be sure. draft is in late sept.

in a pinch, i have oj howard as trade bait that could land me someone like cousins.

Late Sept???  After season starts?

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4 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

however, if his inflated adp is caused by owners in my same situation, i could wait on him.

the same anomaly occurs with rb handcuffs, they can have an inflated adp.


Haha if you're talking about maybe waiting on him, and also talking about moving up for him, just stay where you're at and take him at 42!

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:


Haha if you're talking about maybe waiting on him, and also talking about moving up for him, just stay where you're at and take him at 42!

here is my team, care to rate it?  ;)

http://www68.myfantasyleague.com/2019/options?L=16444&F=0012&O=07

Edited by grateful zed
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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Pretty solid.  So many QB's!  Can't believe you have so much riding on Carson.  Hurts is an absolute must for you.  Is Sudfeld owned?  Looks like Gronk is owned?

luck retired on me, i was hoping for 10 more years out of him.  :hot:

hurts is mandatory for me.

my options are:

1. nothing, hope foles is still starting by my bye week.

2. trade oj howard for a qb2/3.

3. draft burrow at 14 or herberttat 28.

Edited by grateful zed
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40ish seems reasonable but I play mostly 50+ IDP rosters where you can stash players for 2-3 years if you really, really like the taste of that kool-aid. 

I had him penciled in as "reasonable chance" with my 53rd overall pick in a 28 team salary dynasty but only because I own Wentz as my only rostered QB. I did get him there. 

I'll take the upside in my 50+ roster leagues but mostly because the upside is pretty massive and the injury history of Wentz makes him more likely to overcome an absolutely terrible landing spot. 

 

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23 minutes ago, grateful zed said:

luck retired on me, i was hoping for 10 more years out of him.  :hot:

hurts is mandatory for me.

my options are:

1. nothing, hope foles is still starting by my bye week.

2. trade oj howard for a qb2/3.

3. draft burrow at 14 or herberttat 28.

I think you're good with Carson and in the chance he gets hurt, you'll have Hurts who I think could put up some decent fantasy numbers if he was the starter in this offense.  Don't think QB is really a DIRE need for you.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Stashing Hurts feels a lot like stashing Kaepernick did back in the day other than a better established starter in front of him. But things change fast in the NFL and the Eagles have traded backup (and hell, starting) QBs in recent history. And have a QB who has consistently missed games as their franchise QB right now, as good as he's looked.

Athletic 2nd round talent who has the tools but isn't the most polished passer. Lots of potential for fantasy points on the ground. I was thrilled to stash in the 3rd round.

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Stashing Hurts feels a lot like stashing Kaepernick did back in the day other than a better established starter in front of him. But things change fast in the NFL and the Eagles have traded backup (and hell, starting) QBs in recent history. And have a QB who has consistently missed games as their franchise QB right now, as good as he's looked.

Athletic 2nd round talent who has the tools but isn't the most polished passer. Lots of potential for fantasy points on the ground. I was thrilled to stash in the 3rd round.

Completely agree. The high upside is worth it over many of the options in the #30 overall range in rookie drafts. The extension Wentz received last year is rough, but Hurts could still have value in a gadget/slash role. An injury to Wentz makes Hurts skyrocket in value. 

Edited by Flying Elvis
#30 overall, not #50 overall
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Got him with FAAB (3 round rookie draft). Decent stash. There are a few scenarios where I can see him starting regularly. With his talent it’s worth the upside stash in deep bench leagues 

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Somehow I ended up with Hurts in a lot of leagues.  Either via late in the rookie draft or off waivers.  I love low cost lottery tickets, because you never know how things will shake out.  His situation isn't so rosy right now, but that can change on a dime.

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  • 1 month later...

 

Quote

Eagles signed second-round QB Jalen Hurts to a four-year contract.

The team also came to terms with first-round wideout Jalen Reagor. Despite only losing two games as a true freshman and sophomore, Hurts (6’1/222) was unseated by Tua Tagovailoa as Alabama’s starting quarterback, which ultimately led to a transfer to Oklahoma. Under head coach Lincoln Riley, Hurts’ passing motion, comfortability, and efficiency took a massive leap in 2019. He led the nation in YPA (11.5) on non-play action passes, finished with PFF’s No. 4 overall grade, and was the Heisman runner-up to Joe Burrow. On tape, his accuracy is arguably underrated (yet still average), but he must continue to improve his processing and willingness to stay inside the pocket. Luckily, he’s only 21 years old and is by all accounts very coachable. Even if those traits remain weaknesses, Hurts is a valuable runner. He led college football, including running backs, in red zone rushing touchdowns (17) last season and can have a short-yardage role as a backup quarterback. That may be selling him short, however. Hurts has starting-level upside with some development and will slide in as Carson Wentz's direct backup in Philly.

SOURCE: Philadelphia Eagles on Twitter

Jul 20, 2020, 2:51 PM ET

 

 

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Not the biggest fan of his skillset on an NFL team but with a coach like Pederson I can easily see him cleaning some things up enough to be a competent starter if given the chance

I know he played with great talent in college but the guy made big time plays time and time again--certainly has potential

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It's amazing to me that he is only 21 and has accomplished and handled so much Cha get in college.moving schools,different systems, lots of personal stuff.  Starting clearly on the bench with the part of his game that needs improved being teachable, I like that for his prospects going forward.   You can't teach speed or leadership  and sometimes not accuracy or presence, but you can improve mechanics and releases.

And not to wish it or say it's likely because of the past but Wentz is kind of known to miss time.  Not saying hurts takes the job first opportunity and pulls a Brady but it is likely he gets some meaningful work in real games.  

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1 hour ago, Shutout said:

It's amazing to me that he is only 21 and has accomplished and handled so much Cha get in college.moving schools,different systems, lots of personal stuff.  Starting clearly on the bench with the part of his game that needs improved being teachable, I like that for his prospects going forward.   You can't teach speed or leadership  and sometimes not accuracy or presence, but you can improve mechanics and releases.

And not to wish it or say it's likely because of the past but Wentz is kind of known to miss time.  Not saying hurts takes the job first opportunity and pulls a Brady but it is likely he gets some meaningful work in real games.  

I got laughed out of the eagles thread for suggesting he could be the starting QB for the Eagles as early as next year. I'm not saying its likely but I see a path for him to push Wentz out of the way. A key injury to Wentz and a couple Lamar Jackson like performances and look out. 

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4 hours ago, Milkman said:

I got laughed out of the eagles thread for suggesting he could be the starting QB for the Eagles as early as next year. I'm not saying its likely but I see a path for him to push Wentz out of the way. A key injury to Wentz and a couple Lamar Jackson like performances and look out. 

Remember when Lloyd Christmas told Mary Swanson “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?!”?

Well the chance of him starting as early as next year is lower than that. That deal Wentz signed has him locked in as a starter here until at the very earliest 2022

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