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Dynasty & Redraft: RB A.J. Dillon, Packers


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AJ Dillon rushed 21 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16 against the Titans.

With Jamaal Williams sidelined, Dillon was the No. 2 back. He carried 10 times for 51 yards in first half with Aaron Jones out of the game due to injury. Jones returned after halftime, but Dillon salted the game away late with a pair of TDs. This was the most action of the season for Dillon, who had just 24 carries in nine games going into Sunday night. The rookie second-rounder likely played his way into another sizeable workload if Williams doesn’t return in Week 17.

Dec 27, 2020, 11:20 PM ET

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ack88 said:

I’m hoping Jones signs elsewhere next year as I’ve got Dillon for cheap in my main league. 

Well, they didn't draft him in the second round just to have him ride the bench. The writing was on the wall when they made the pick.

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45 minutes ago, Ostro said:

Well, they didn't draft him in the second round just to have him ride the bench. The writing was on the wall when they made the pick.

Sure, but plenty of 2nd round RBs have failed to pan out.  Up until this game Dillon had barely gotten any action at all.  I had the feeling that the Pack wasn't liking what they were seeing in practice, or they didn't feel the need to see what Dillon can do for some other reason, like they plan to keep Jones.  I still don't think I fully understand why they gave him so few carries, plenty of games this year were in the bag in the 4th quarter.  

It sure was nice to see this guy make the most of his first real opportunity.

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12 minutes ago, Willy said:

Sure, but plenty of 2nd round RBs have failed to pan out.  Up until this game Dillon had barely gotten any action at all.  I had the feeling that the Pack wasn't liking what they were seeing in practice, or they didn't feel the need to see what Dillon can do for some other reason, like they plan to keep Jones.  I still don't think I fully understand why they gave him so few carries, plenty of games this year were in the bag in the 4th quarter.  

It sure was nice to see this guy make the most of his first real opportunity.

He was out for at least 6 weeks with a bad case of COVID.

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1 hour ago, Willy said:

Sure, but plenty of 2nd round RBs have failed to pan out.  Up until this game Dillon had barely gotten any action at all.  I had the feeling that the Pack wasn't liking what they were seeing in practice, or they didn't feel the need to see what Dillon can do for some other reason, like they plan to keep Jones.  I still don't think I fully understand why they gave him so few carries, plenty of games this year were in the bag in the 4th quarter.  

It sure was nice to see this guy make the most of his first real opportunity.

With both Jones and Williams as UFAs, that at least one leaves is better than 50/50

There's been some speculation that Atlanta will toss Jones a significant offer and I believe GB does have some cap issues that make at least one RB departure likely.

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1 hour ago, Willy said:

Sure, but plenty of 2nd round RBs have failed to pan out.  Up until this game Dillon had barely gotten any action at all.  I had the feeling that the Pack wasn't liking what they were seeing in practice, or they didn't feel the need to see what Dillon can do for some other reason, like they plan to keep Jones.  I still don't think I fully understand why they gave him so few carries, plenty of games this year were in the bag in the 4th quarter.  

It sure was nice to see this guy make the most of his first real opportunity.

My mistake, I should have said  'They didn't draft him to ride the bench after this season.' and 'The writing was on the wall for Jones/Williams' beyond this year.'

Regardless of whether he was a 2nd rounder or 5th rounder, unless the Packers were going to trade Jones/Williams before this season started, he was gonna be the 3rd string RB. And that's what he's been getting, 3rd string carries.

I wish they would have given him more playing time too, but hey, everyone that drafted him if FF pretty much knew he wasn't gonna do much this year anyways.

The real question is,

Is Dillon gonna be Jones' backup next year?

Is Williams Dillon's backup next year? 

Are they both done in GB, and another RB gets drafted in the 2021 draft?

Based on last night, I'm thinking question 2 or 3.

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1 hour ago, Longtucky Lemmings said:

He was out for at least 6 weeks with a bad case of COVID.

It was indeed a while, but I don't think it was six. Let me check on that. 

It was five. Good call. That's really the reason he's gotten no run. Said the virus was "no joke." He's a bigger guy, too, so it might have really gotten him pretty sick even for his age. So much of this is unspoken. Ryquell Armstead is still on the COVID list from the beginning of the year, though that may be due to family deaths. Nobody is sure because media disclosure isn't really required, if I'm not mistaken.

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If Dillon looks at all the way he did last night next week or during their playoff run you better believe they will be moving in a direction that gets him at least a 50/50 timeshare next year. Why pony up the $$ for AJones when a combo of Dillon/Williams can get it done for cheaper. 

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5 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

If Dillon looks at all the way he did last night next week or during their playoff run you better believe they will be moving in a direction that gets him at least a 50/50 timeshare next year. Why pony up the $$ for AJones when a combo of Dillon/Williams can get it done for cheaper. 

Pass catching. They're such a more diverse offense when they can send Jones on wheel routes and the like. They can't do with Dillon what they can do with Jones and it's not even close. I wouldn't be surprised if they worked out a two year deal with two year club options with Jones and let Williams walk. 

Edited by rockaction
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I think these cold weather, year end games are what drew the Packers to Dillon. He can grind out tough yards and has nimble feet for a big guy. Although not a master of the route tree I don’t think he is a detriment in the passing game and should be able to improve his comfort level over time. It will be an interesting offseason for the Packer RB room.

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32 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Pass catching. They're such a more diverse offense when they can send Jones on wheel routes and the like. They can't do with Dillon what they can do with Jones and it's not even close. I wouldn't be surprised if they worked out a two year deal with two year club options with Jones and let Williams walk. 

Give Dillon a time to learn, after all, he's only rookie who didnt partake any OTA with Packers.  Jones didnt catch much during first two years and he broke out last year.  He did mention that he dedicated his offseason in catching prior to last year's season.  

 

28 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

I think these cold weather, year end games are what drew the Packers to Dillon. He can grind out tough yards and has nimble feet for a big guy. Although not a master of the route tree I don’t think he is a detriment in the passing game and should be able to improve his comfort level over time. It will be an interesting offseason for the Packer RB room.

Agreed... Packers are aiming for seeded #1 throughout the playoff, which means more playing time for Jones, Jamaal, and Dillon.  I think last night's game is good indicator how Packers want to run their offense.  Build up a scoring lead with Rodgers' passing then control the game by rushing while bleeding the clock. 

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Just now, Aznflyer14 said:

Give Dillon a time to learn, after all, he's only rookie who didnt partake any OTA with Packers.  Jones didnt catch much during first two years and he broke out last year.  He did mention that he dedicated his offseason in catching prior to last year's season.  

I totally agree with you about giving Dillon time (I roster him on my main dynasty team - pick 3.01) but some things you can't coach, and Jones's pass catching ability seems to be one of those innate things that isn't achievable through hard work and time alone. He really is good. (And I roster no shares of Jones anywhere. This is sort of a dispassionate observation.)

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12 hours ago, rockaction said:

Pass catching. They're such a more diverse offense when they can send Jones on wheel routes and the like. They can't do with Dillon what they can do with Jones and it's not even close. I wouldn't be surprised if they worked out a two year deal with two year club options with Jones and let Williams walk. 

Dillon looked fine catching the ball this week and that was an unfair knock on him coming out of college--just because BC never threw to him, doesn't mean he can't do it....Jones is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield, but Dillon adds  a new dimension to the offense. BTW, I'm a big Jones fan, but his proclivity to get nicked up and miss time is concerning. He's not the most durable back and the Pack brass would be wise to let him walk and pay either Williams, pay another FA RB, or draft one in May. As most already know, breaking the bank to resign a RB rarely makes sense. Any way you slice it, Dillon has a bright future in GB. 

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6 hours ago, Edgar said:

Dillon looked like an absolute superstar last night. I’ll be buying him everywhere, ideally before the Packers move on from either Jones or Williams or both. 

Sunday night was why Dillon drafters picked him. Jones and Williams blocking him in 2020 but being UFA's after are what created the discount price.

So, good luck..

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3 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Dillon looked fine catching the ball this week and that was an unfair knock on him coming out of college--just because BC never threw to him, doesn't mean he can't do it....Jones is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield, but Dillon adds  a new dimension to the offense. BTW, I'm a big Jones fan, but his proclivity to get nicked up and miss time is concerning. He's not the most durable back and the Pack brass would be wise to let him walk and pay either Williams, pay another FA RB, or draft one in May. As most already know, breaking the bank to resign a RB rarely makes sense. Any way you slice it, Dillon has a bright future in GB. 

While he looked fine on little swing passes...I don't think that is what people are meaning when comparing to someone like Jones who has shown a proclivity to make really good downfield catches as well.

Can Dillon get to that point?  Maybe...but right now that is a large advantage of having a back like Jones in the offense.

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8 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Dillon looked fine catching the ball this week and that was an unfair knock on him coming out of college--just because BC never threw to him, doesn't mean he can't do it....Jones is a tremendous receiver out of the backfield, but Dillon adds  a new dimension to the offense. BTW, I'm a big Jones fan, but his proclivity to get nicked up and miss time is concerning. He's not the most durable back and the Pack brass would be wise to let him walk and pay either Williams, pay another FA RB, or draft one in May. As most already know, breaking the bank to resign a RB rarely makes sense. Any way you slice it, Dillon has a bright future in GB. 

Agreed and I think that's why Packers went ahead and took Dillon earlier than originally projected because of their concern with Jones' durability.  Packers know they need sustained success wth their rushing especially going deep in the playoff.  Beside, Dillon's college experience at BC and playing in NE region with frigid climate give him an edge.  

One more thing, I think Packers will draft another RB... possibly in late draft picks as change of pace.  I'm still dubious on Packers' chance to resign Jamaal Williams.  (Disclaimer: I'm owner of Dillon and Jamaal in dynasty PPR league.) 

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While it isn't that hard for me to see Jones being the better pass catching option than Dillon, statistically Jones is not that good of a receiver compared to other RB despite the bonus of playing with Aaron Rodgers.

His career catch rate is 70.9% which is fine but below the average of 73% for a RB the last time I checked this, and that percentage may have gone up in recent years. Catch rates do seem to be up across the board. His yards per target is 5.6 which is also below average.

So at least based on this it doesn't look like Jones is adding a lot as a receiving option. The Packers have shown a tendency to use WIlliams as a receiver as much if not more than Jones because he is better in pass protection. Williams has a career 78% catch rate and he gains 6.2 tards per target. Both better numbers than Jones.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

While it isn't that hard for me to see Jones being the better pass catching option than Dillon, statistically Jones is not that good of a receiver compared to other RB despite the bonus of playing with Aaron Rodgers.

His career catch rate is 70.9% which is fine but below the average of 73% for a RB the last time I checked this, and that percentage may have gone up in recent years. Catch rates do seem to be up across the board. His yards per target is 5.6 which is also below average.

So at least based on this it doesn't look like Jones is adding a lot as a receiving option. The Packers have shown a tendency to use WIlliams as a receiver as much if not more than Jones because he is better in pass protection. Williams has a career 78% catch rate and he gains 6.2 tards per target. Both better numbers than Jones.

I know sample sizes become adequate at some point, but there seems to be an apples and oranges thing with the routes he runs vs. other RBs. I can't count the amount of times Rodgers is targeting him way down the field, which would lead to a lesser catch rate. The YPT is something I can't really explain, though. More incompletions, maybe? 

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25 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I know sample sizes become adequate at some point, but there seems to be an apples and oranges thing with the routes he runs vs. other RBs. I can't count the amount of times Rodgers is targeting him way down the field, which would lead to a lesser catch rate. The YPT is something I can't really explain, though. More incompletions, maybe? 

That would explain it I guess. I didn't look at adot numbers.

The Packers were without viable WR for some games when Adams was out, and just no good compliment in general. So it wouldn't surprise me if he were running some deeper routes at times. I think the Eagles did some of that with Miles Sanders for similar reason.

If someone has the data I would be interested to know what the average depth of target to a RB is and where Jones fits into that.

I was looking at this which doesn't answer the question but does show that Jones had huge success rates to the deep right side of the field in 2018 and 2019 but he hasn't been targeted that deep in 2020.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Retaining Williams and letting him platoon with Dillon would be the wise move for the Packers and one I imagine they pursue. Let someone else overpay for a talented, but often nicked up Jones. Williams would be the passing/3rd down back.

Edited by FGITLOTR
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2 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Retaining Williams and letting him platoon with Dillon would be the wise move for the Packers and one I imagine they pursue. Let someone else overpay for a talented, but often nicked up Jones. Williams would be the passing/3rd down back.

Sure...as a fan of the team...id love to keep Jones.  And while I hear on radio shows they have negotiated or been negotiating...I don't see how they give him what he wants.  Historically the team has not valued RBs like that (of course, neither does most of the league).  Look at teams who pay up big for RBs historically and how it works out long term.  That is hard to do when you are also paying that much to a QB, now the highest paid LT...and have other free agents at the same time or coming up.

I am also of the opinion its probably best to hold on to Williams with Dillon (especially if we see more of Dillon like this)...and then try to hang on to Linsley or King or extending Alexander...

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Week 17 Dynasty Risers and Fallers: A.J. Dillon flashes incredible upside

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RISER:  RB A.J. DILLON, GREEN BAY PACKERS

It’s hard to take much away from one game of Dillon, but given that he doubled his season-long rushing total in one week, he has to pop up as a riser. Much of his fate will ride on how he is used in the final week of the regular season and throughout the playoffs. If the Packers show a willingness to give him double-digit carries every week, his value could go through the moon. 

Both Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones are free agents at the end of the year, and Jones will likely be asking for a sizable contract. If the Packers let him walk, Dillon will be the presumed starter, increasing his value to the third or fourth round of startup drafts overnight. If the price isn’t too steep, Dillon is worth buying based on his asymmetric upside.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
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A.J. Dillon rushed six times for 27 yards in the Packers' Divisional Round win against the Rams.

Dillon was surprisingly involved for 6-of-33 backfield touches after handling just one carry in Green Bay's must-win Week 17 game against the Bears. He also suffered a potential injury in the final quarter, coming up limp after fumbling the ball (which Aaron Rodgers promptly recovered) before Rodgers iced the game with a 58-yard touchdown to Allen Lazard. Given that near-catastrophic event, Dillon could potentially remain glued to the bench in the Conference Championship round.

Jan 16, 2021, 8:41 PM ET

 

 

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AJ Dillon (quad) will play in the Conference Championship game against the Buccaneers.

Dillon was injured in the second half of Green Bay's Divisional Round win over the Rams but will be available yet again against Tampa Bay. Involved for six carries prior to injury, the rookie is expected to handle a small share of the team's backfield touches behind both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. With Bucs DT Vita Vea surprisingly back in the fold, Dillon (as the clear-cut third option) can be ignored in any two-game DFS slates.

SOURCE: Green Bay Packers on Twitter

Jan 22, 2021, 3:49 PM ET

 

 

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AJ Dillon rushed three times for 17 yards in the Packers' NFC Championship Game loss to the Bucs, adding a 13-yard reception. 

The No. 62 overall pick of the draft, Dillon eclipsed 31 yards rushing only once all season. When he did, it was a memorable 21/124/2 Week 16 effort in the snow against Tennessee. Dillon's early-season problem was Aaron Jones' hot play. His late-season problem was the coronavirus, which laid Dillon low for over a month. A truly massive power back, Dillon lived up to his pre-draft billing as a unique talent even if it was less often than expected. With Jones and Jamaal Williams both headed to free agency, there is a good chance 22-year-old Dillon will be the Pack's lead back in 2021, but a lot needs to happen before then. 

Jan 24, 2021, 8:12 PM ET

 

 

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  • 1 month later...
1 minute ago, zeeshan2 said:

Value has to be insanely high now that Jones is gone

Not sure in a ppr. He is definitely not a fluid receiver so I don’t think he will see a ton of catches. Should be money from the goal line though, he is a wrecking ball.

I think the concern is can he get through a season. He ran a ton at BC and seems to get dinged up pretty easily. 
 

I’m staying away mainly because I think he won’t offer any value where he is going.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:
4 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

Value has to be insanely high now that Jones is gone

Did I miss recent news, was he traded?

No - just not franchise tagged. He could still come back to the Packers, but I’m sure some other team will throw him more money.

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1 minute ago, zamboni said:

No - just not franchise tagged. He could still come back to the Packers, but I’m sure some other team will throw him more money.

I could see him in Miami or TB.  I hope for Miami.  The timeshare in TB would be ugly.  Besides, the money to get him would probably land him in a situation where he will see most of the touches.  People are down on Jones just because he may leave GB.  His value will be great in Miami.

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Today has been weird, watching the reaction to Dillon from a fantasy perspective. Dillon's a massive dude. He has a ridiculous speed and burst score. He's agile. He also went to one of the worst situations in the NFL for a rookie unless free agency happened. So far, it is happening. Everyone is really down on Dillon today, from Twitter to the board, even. I'd really think long and hard about discounting a guy with the freakish athletic talent the guy has for his size.

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36 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Today has been weird, watching the reaction to Dillon from a fantasy perspective. Dillon's a massive dude. He has a ridiculous speed and burst score. He's agile. He also went to one of the worst situations in the NFL for a rookie unless free agency happened. So far, it is happening. Everyone is really down on Dillon today, from Twitter to the board, even. I'd really think long and hard about discounting a guy with the freakish athletic talent the guy has for his size.

Dillon tape

@barackdhouse the guy is 247 lbs. He even catches some passes here. What’s not to like- and vs stacked boxes where the defense knew he was getting it every time. I don’t remember off hand but I think they were on their 3rd string qb all year.

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5 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Dillon tape

@barackdhouse the guy is 247 lbs. He even catches some passes here. What’s not to like- and vs stacked boxes where the defense knew he was getting it every time. I don’t remember off hand but I think they were on their 3rd string qb all year.

Alright. I am staying away until we get through FA and the draft though. I don't think he can't be successful I just think the Packers are stupid. 

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3 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Dillon is easily my favourite 2021 sleeper. I can’t get enough shares of him

How is he a sleeper when he was being drafted in the 4th round of redrafts *before* this news? Don't get me wrong it isn't a huge surprise they're letting Jones go so this upside was already baked in. If people think he is going to go boffo then ok I guess he could be a sleeper in the 3rd if he only climbs there. 

How big of a bump are people talking here and where would folks here take him in redraft today? 

Edited by barackdhouse
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42 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Today has been weird, watching the reaction to Dillon from a fantasy perspective. Dillon's a massive dude. He has a ridiculous speed and burst score. He's agile. He also went to one of the worst situations in the NFL for a rookie unless free agency happened. So far, it is happening. Everyone is really down on Dillon today, from Twitter to the board, even. I'd really think long and hard about discounting a guy with the freakish athletic talent the guy has for his size.

Yeah, I'd be pretty pumped if I had him. I'm a bit sore I didn't get him anywhere last off-season. 

I posted the Henry line earlier mostly as a funny tidbit. This guy's closest comp is the king, and his HC happens to be the very guy who couldn't figure out how to use Henry for 13 weeks as OC? But then maybe the Dillon selection is because LaFleur learned his lesson in TN and now sees the value in a massive, freakishly athletic RB.

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3 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

How is he a sleeper when he was being drafted in the 4th round of redrafts *before* this news? Don't get me wrong it isn't a huge surprise they're letting Jones go so this upside was already baked in. If people think he is going to go boffo then ok I guess he could be a sleeper in the 3rd if he only climbs there. 

How big of a bump are people talking here and where would folks here take him in redraft today? 

I suppose the term “sleeper” is relative, but I believe he outperforms his ADP and works his way into the conversation of next year’s back end of round 1

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8 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

It was high before he was gone. 

I tried to acquire Dillon the last few weeks from a stacked team where he was his RB4, basically was told it would take a top 7 pick at the time. I figured GB would do the smart thing and tag Jones so wasn’t willing to pay it. I figure that price has gone up to a top 3~4 pick now.

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