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RB A.J. Dillon, GB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
jtd13
Footballguy
This is the type of situation where it's typically best to buy after the draft if you're interested. Most owners have already built in some assumption he'll be the unquestioning RB1 there. So the price won't go up that much if that still looks true in May.
Are there actually redraft leagues that are drafting before yesterday? That seems really dumb.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Oh man. That's too bad. I just sat with him, wondering who on earth would really want to buy now before Jones was done with free agency. I honestly figured Jones would go back. Perhaps proactive is the better part of value, eh?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Ah, you got the 2.03 and Dillon for Deebo. Well, that was a good trade. It also helps prove my implicit point about Dillon's value. There wasn't much overreaction in my little world for Dillon's services, really. I don't have enough teams across enough platforms to really address a guy's services outside of particular mindsets.
<Dillion's value The Tahitian Facemask
Footballguy
Kiddnets
Footballguy
If any QB should be allowed to throw a diva fit its A Rodgers....what a terrible job by the GB GM
I think Dillion becomes the short yd specialist and may vulture a lot of TDs from Jones....Id stay clear of that mess now
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dillon may get some goal line vultures but Jones is still the guy and get all the RBs receptions. Nothing really changes for Jones.
Blick
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I have to say that I think we're splitting hairs at this point about goal-line work. If I recall from when I subscribed to ESPN+, Jones got a ton of touchdown opportunities, a statistic they keep. It seemed like Jones got tons of red zone opportunities and has a bit of a nose for the end zone, meaning that he's usually on the plus side of his expected touchdown points per opportunity. Normally, that would mean a regression to the mean, but I don't think it holds in his case. Regardless, next year Jones gets the bulk of the work and renders Dillon's fantasy value much worse than it was a few days ago.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
Poor resource management is hidden when your QB is the league MVP. Remember when the Manning Colts were perennial contenders going 12-4 every year? Then Peyton misses a season with neck fusion and they're instantly the worst team in the league and can draft Luck.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sure it does. Williams may indeed have more fantasy value than Dillon. Both points seem right on the nose. Heck, Gus Edwards of Baltimore in that timeshare with Dobbins might have more value than Dillon. Dillon rosterers don't realize (I am one, and I do realize) that his short and long-term value has pretty much cratered barring anything unforeseen.
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Willy
Footballguy
As a GB fan, I was hoping the Pack would save that cap space to try and keep Linsley. Having spent a high pick on this guy, and now throwing a bunch of coin at a 26 year old RB is, well, not smart cap management. There's a reason teams don't tie up a bunch of money in 26 year old RBs. Is there any position as replaceable as RB? That money should have been used to make a real run at JJ Watt a couple weeks ago, or to keep stud center Corey Linsley.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Jones and I think he's is a better RB than Dillon. I just don't value this position as one my team should tie up a lot of resources in unless we're talking about a dynamic talent like Cook or something. I think I'm being honest and not just viewing it via Dillon owner glasses. I'd likely say the same thing when Dillon's contract is up.
This one is going to leave the Packers worse off than had they let Jones walk.
Edit to add: Obviously, as Rock says above, this craters Dillon's value. He isn't going to be startable unless Jones gets injured. Drops numerous rounds in the draft in all formats. IMO Jones will be the guy and Dillon has no more value than Williams has had the past few years.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Jones and I think he's is a better RB than Dillon. I just don't value this position as one my team should tie up a lot of resources in unless we're talking about a dynamic talent like Cook or something. I think I'm being honest and not just viewing it via Dillon owner glasses. I'd likely say the same thing when Dillon's contract is up.
This one is going to leave the Packers worse off than had they let Jones walk.
Edit to add: Obviously, as Rock says above, this craters Dillon's value. He isn't going to be startable unless Jones gets injured. Drops numerous rounds in the draft in all formats. IMO Jones will be the guy and Dillon has no more value than Williams has had the past few years.
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
They are really ruining Rodgers last years for sure. Why not fire up the weapons instead of building a team for when everyone retires?
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Offered up Parris Campbell and a 3rd for Dillon and a 5th post Jones signing and it was accepted. I needed the depth at RB more than WR.
I agree that nothing really changes for Jones but I do think Dillon takes on basically the role of Jamaal Williams. It might not be for the exact same kinds of touches but I believe that they will still rotate RB's in the same ratio they did last year. Dillon may get more of the short yardage and clock killing work and Jones may pick up some of Williams passing down work but I think in the end it will still be a split similar to what GB always does.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well regression analysis typically is comparing a players previous season to NFL mean and more specifically that players mean.
TD are not a sticky stat at all and there was most definitely regression in the number of TD Jones scored in 2019 (19 TD!) to 2020 where he only scored 11.
You are right that Jones TD per touch ratio is higher than a lot of RB in the league. This is partially because Aaron Rodgers is a good QB and gets the offense in position to score, it is partly because the Packers have lacked other options as good as Jones besides Adams, part of ithat is just because of the high number of TD he scored in 2019 and of course part of it is because Jones is good.
That said I would be looking for more evidence of Dillon being favored in red zone situations before anointing him the goal line RB over Jones who is making a lot of $$ and because of that the Packers will use him a lot in all situations.
I do think its a logical idea to think that Dillon being a bigger RB might be better suited to goal line work than Jones but I will have to see it first.
considering moving my Aaron Jones share for Dillon ++ , but I also think I may be getting a little too cute. I do like Dillon to have some good games (perhaps 2 TD games) although they will be unpredictable without a Jones injury. It is a big value drop from Jones to Dillon and would therefore need good compensation to make the move.
Mark Football
Footballguy
People don't love Aaron Jones, so I don't know how much ++ you'll get. But if you're rebuilding or don't need Jones see what you can get!
tombonneau
Footballguy
Yeah people are really blah on Jones. Drafted AJ last year, was debating shopping him to Jones owner, but maybe I should be doing the inverse. What is Jones fetching on open market?
The Frankman
Footballguy
dcgangstas
Footballguy
True. Dillon's usage has been far less than expected; not getting the type of workload that Jamaal got last year.
At this point, he's simply Aaron Jones insurance, and not someone you can put in a "what the heck" flex role.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
Snap Percentage/Snap Counts
Aaron Jones
Game 1 49%/28
Game 2 69%/45
Game 3 73%/46
A.J. Dillon
Game 1 28%16
Game 2 29%19
Game 3 29%18
Sasgaard
Footballguy
The issue is that Jones is a stud so it's tough to not give him the ball. Secondly, Dillon looks slow to me. I understand he's big so he won't look like Jones but I find him sluggish with his feet. Unless Jones get hurt, I don't see Dillon having any significance. They are not even giving him the ball on goal line work which based on his size, you would think they would. Even there, Jones gets the nod because of his catching abilities on short yard passes.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Jones injury history? He's an NFL rb and looks like he's played 33 of his last 35 games. Probably more but I don't feel like looking into it more.
rockaction
Footballguy
Just went 15/85 yesterday and a catch for sixteen yards. That's a good line.
dipandglide
Footballguy
He’s heating up. I’m guessing he’ll mix in more as the weather turns and season wears on. He’s a great best ball play.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Is there any story behind his increased usage? Was Jones dinged for a bit or were they just mixing him in?
The Frankman
Footballguy
Jones dinged his ankle the week before but I don't believe he did any other damage this week. I think the game was in hand and they wanted to lessen Jones' load. After performing decently this could be a typical workload moving forward provided the game script allows for it.
rockaction
Footballguy
You're my boy, Blue, but I disagree. This is Jones's show when he's healthy. Rodgers wants it that way, he'll likely get it that way. I roster Dillon in one league, so I wish it weren't so, but the story of Dillon's career might wind up being a huge "What could have been?"
He's a pro-quality running back. He good.
