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Dynasty & Redraft: RB A.J. Dillon, Packers


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33 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Yeah I’m not paying a top 5 pick. So not buying him I guess. 

This is the type of situation where it's typically best to buy after the draft if you're interested. Most owners have already built in some assumption he'll be the unquestioning RB1 there. So the price won't go up that much if that still looks true in May.

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18 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

How is he a sleeper when he was being drafted in the 4th round of redrafts *before* this news? Don't get me wrong it isn't a huge surprise they're letting Jones go so this upside was already baked in. If people think he is going to go boffo then ok I guess he could be a sleeper in the 3rd if he only climbs there. 

How big of a bump are people talking here and where would folks here take him in redraft today? 

Are there actually redraft leagues that are drafting before yesterday?  That seems really dumb.

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11 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I gave Deebo Samuel for Dillon and what ended up being the 2.03 because I thought Jones was gone.

Oh man. That's too bad. I just sat with him, wondering who on earth would really want to buy now before Jones was done with free agency. I honestly figured Jones would go back. Perhaps proactive is the better part of value, eh? 

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Oh man. That's too bad. I just sat with him, wondering who on earth would really want to buy now before Jones was done with free agency. I honestly figured Jones would go back. Perhaps proactive is the better part of value, eh? 

It’s still not terrible, but obviously could have been a home run.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

It’s still not terrible, but obviously could have been a home run.

Ah, you got the 2.03 and Dillon for Deebo. Well, that was a good trade. It also helps prove my implicit point about Dillon's value. There wasn't much overreaction in my little world for Dillon's services, really. I don't have enough teams across enough platforms to really address a guy's services outside of particular mindsets.

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2 minutes ago, The Tahitian Facemask said:

And 3rd round

If any QB should be allowed to throw a diva fit its A Rodgers....what a terrible job by the GB GM

I think Dillion becomes the short yd specialist and may vulture a lot of TDs from Jones....Id stay clear of that mess now

 

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1 minute ago, Kiddnets said:

If any QB should be allowed to throw a diva fit its A Rodgers....what a terrible job by the GB GM

I think Dillion becomes the short yd specialist and may vulture a lot of TDs from Jones....Id stay clear of that mess now

 

Dillon may get some goal line vultures but Jones is still the guy and get all the RBs receptions.  Nothing really changes for Jones.

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9 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

If any QB should be allowed to throw a diva fit its A Rodgers....what a terrible job by the GB GM

I think Dillion becomes the short yd specialist and may vulture a lot of TDs from Jones....Id stay clear of that mess now

 

Adams is already the short yardage back. 

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I have to say that I think we're splitting hairs at this point about goal-line work. If I recall from when I subscribed to ESPN+, Jones got a ton of touchdown opportunities, a statistic they keep. It seemed like Jones got tons of red zone opportunities and has a bit of a nose for the end zone, meaning that he's usually on the plus side of his expected touchdown points per opportunity. Normally, that would mean a regression to the mean, but I don't think it holds in his case. Regardless, next year Jones gets the bulk of the work and renders Dillon's fantasy value much worse than it was a few days ago.

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It's hard to imagine but Jamal Williams could end up with more fantasy value than Dillon in 2021 if he lands in a favorable spot.  I personally think he's just another guy, but opportunity matters in fantasy football.

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18 hours ago, Kiddnets said:

so the Packers used their 2020 1st and 2d rd picks on backups?  

They traded their 1st and 4th rounders to trade up for Love, so its even worse. 2nd rounder Dillon a backup. 3rd rounder TE a backup

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11 minutes ago, Edgar said:

They traded their 1st and 4th rounders to trade up for Love, so its even worse. 2nd rounder Dillon a backup. 3rd rounder TE a backup

Thats is just crazy....what a waste

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11 minutes ago, Kiddnets said:

Thats is just crazy....what a waste

Poor resource management is hidden when your QB is the league MVP. Remember when the Manning Colts were perennial contenders going 12-4 every year? Then Peyton misses a season with neck fusion and they're instantly the worst team in the league and can draft Luck.

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

It's hard to imagine but Jamal Williams could end up with more fantasy value than Dillon in 2021 if he lands in a favorable spot.  I personally think he's just another guy, but opportunity matters in fantasy football.

Sure it does. Williams may indeed have more fantasy value than Dillon. Both points seem right on the nose. Heck, Gus Edwards of Baltimore in that timeshare with Dobbins might have more value than Dillon. Dillon rosterers don't realize (I am one, and I do realize) that his short and long-term value has pretty much cratered barring anything unforeseen.

Edited by rockaction
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As a GB fan, I was hoping the Pack would save that cap space to try and keep Linsley.  Having spent a high pick on this guy, and now throwing a bunch of coin at a 26 year old RB is, well, not smart cap management.  There's a reason teams don't tie up a bunch of money in 26 year old RBs.  Is there any position as replaceable as RB?  That money should have been used to make a real run at JJ Watt a couple weeks ago, or to keep stud center Corey Linsley.  

Don't get me wrong, I really like Jones and I think he's is a better RB than Dillon.  I just don't value this position as one my team should tie up a lot of resources in unless we're talking about a dynamic talent like Cook or something.  I think I'm being honest and not just viewing it via Dillon owner glasses.  I'd likely say the same thing when Dillon's contract is up. 

This one is going to leave the Packers worse off than had they let Jones walk. 

 

Edit to add:  Obviously, as Rock says above, this craters Dillon's value.  He isn't going to be startable unless Jones gets injured.  Drops numerous rounds in the draft in all formats.  IMO Jones will be the guy and Dillon has no more value than Williams has had the past few years.  

Edited by Willy
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1 hour ago, Desert_Power said:

I had forgotten some of this. What a debacle. 

They are really ruining Rodgers last years for sure.  Why not fire up the weapons instead of building a team for when everyone retires?

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On 3/14/2021 at 3:17 PM, JohnnyU said:

Dillon may get some goal line vultures but Jones is still the guy and get all the RBs receptions.  Nothing really changes for Jones.

I agree that nothing really changes for Jones but I do think Dillon takes on basically the role of Jamaal Williams.  It might not be for the exact same kinds of touches but I believe that they will still rotate RB's in the same ratio they did last year.  Dillon may get more of the short yardage and clock killing work and Jones may pick up some of Williams passing down work but I think in the end it will still be a split similar to what GB always does.  

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  • 2 months later...
On 3/15/2021 at 9:49 AM, rockaction said:

I have to say that I think we're splitting hairs at this point about goal-line work. If I recall from when I subscribed to ESPN+, Jones got a ton of touchdown opportunities, a statistic they keep. It seemed like Jones got tons of red zone opportunities and has a bit of a nose for the end zone, meaning that he's usually on the plus side of his expected touchdown points per opportunity. Normally, that would mean a regression to the mean, but I don't think it holds in his case. Regardless, next year Jones gets the bulk of the work and renders Dillon's fantasy value much worse than it was a few days ago.

Well regression analysis typically is comparing a players previous season to NFL mean and more specifically that players mean.

TD are not a sticky stat at all and there was most definitely regression in the number of TD Jones scored in 2019 (19 TD!) to 2020 where he only scored 11.

You are right that Jones TD per touch ratio is higher than a lot of RB in the league. This is partially because Aaron Rodgers is a good QB and gets the offense in position to score, it is partly because the Packers have lacked other options as good as Jones besides Adams, part of ithat is just because of the high number of TD he scored in 2019 and of course part of it is because Jones is good.

That said I would be looking for more evidence of Dillon being favored in red zone situations before anointing him the goal line RB over Jones who is making a lot of $$ and because of that the Packers will use him a lot in all situations.

I do think its a logical idea to think that Dillon being a bigger RB might be better suited to goal line work than Jones but I will have to see it first.

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considering moving my Aaron Jones share for Dillon ++ , but I also think I may be getting a little too cute. I do like Dillon to have some good games (perhaps 2 TD games) although they will be unpredictable without a Jones injury. It is a big value drop from Jones to Dillon and would therefore need good compensation to make the move.

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6 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

considering moving my Aaron Jones share for Dillon ++ , but I also think I may be getting a little too cute. I do like Dillon to have some good games (perhaps 2 TD games) although they will be unpredictable without a Jones injury. It is a big value drop from Jones to Dillon and would therefore need good compensation to make the move.

People don't love Aaron Jones, so I don't know how much ++ you'll get. But if you're rebuilding or don't need Jones see what you can get!

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4 hours ago, Mark Football said:

People don't love Aaron Jones, so I don't know how much ++ you'll get. But if you're rebuilding or don't need Jones see what you can get!

Yeah people are really blah on Jones. Drafted AJ last year, was debating shopping him to Jones owner, but maybe I should be doing the inverse. What is Jones fetching on open market? 

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  • 1 month later...
Quote

Packers running backs coach Ben Sirmans said Green Bay will lean on AJ Dillon "a lot more this year."

It would be hard for the Packers to lean on Dillon any less than they did last year. He topped five carries in a game just once, running for 124 yards on 21 totes in Week 16 versus the Titans. Still, the added confidence from his coaching staff is a good sign. Both Sirmans and Aaron Jones have noted that Dillon knows the offense much better entering his second year. Dillon's experiencing catching passes is almost nonexistent so any role increase will come in the form of extra work on early downs. Because of his limited skill set, Dillon projects as an RB4 with breakout potential if he manages to steal away more work than expected from Jones.

RELATED: 

Aaron Jones

SOURCE: Wisconsin State Journal

Jul 19, 2021, 8:57 AM ET

 

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