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2020 Compensatory picks (1 Viewer)

Andy Dufresne

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001105772/article/patriots-lead-teams-with-four-2020-compensatory-picks

Round 3

97. Houston Texans
98. New England Patriots
99. New York Giants
100. New England Patriots
101. Seattle Seahawks
102. Pittsburgh Steelers
103. Philadelphia Eagles
104. Los Angeles Rams
105. Minnesota Vikings
106. Baltimore Ravens

Round 4

139. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
140. Chicago Bears
141. Miami Dolphins
142. Washington Redskins
143. Baltimore Ravens
144. Seattle Seahawks
145. Philadelphia Eagles
146. Philadelphia Eagles

Round 5

178. Denver Broncos
179. Dallas Cowboys

Round 6

212. New England Patriots
213. New England Patriots
214. Seattle Seahawks

Round 7

247. New York Giants
248. Houston Texans
249. Minnesota Vikings
250. Houston Texans
251. Miami Dolphins
252. Denver Broncos
253. Minnesota Vikings
254. Denver Broncos
255. New York Giants

 
menobrown said:
Amazing how much better some teams are at working FA and the comp picks then other teams. 
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Well the comp pick system is designed to award teams who have players leaving their teams for big contracts, which mostly happens to the better teams who cant afford everyone.

As far as SF or KC their time for this will come in years ahead.

Still some good work done by the teams getting the comp picks.

For the Vikings I think that 3rd round pick is for Sheldon Richardson, who the Vikings only had for one season.

 
Dr. Dan said:
I was just pointing out that the successful teams arent on this list. I'd rather be in the Super Bowl than be a "winner" in comp picks. Of course, their time will come too, but being good at gaming the comp pick system hasnt really paid off it seems for most teams
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The Patriots have had plenty of years they went to the SB and still earned a ton of comp picks. Being a winning team and earning a lot of comp picks are not mutually exclusive. 

 
If someone knows how to look up overall team records since 1994 when comp picks came out I'd be interested.

I do know that Baltimore has got the most, Dallas and NE tied for second with Green Bay 4th in most comp picks awarded since that time and I'm guessing since that 1994 era 3 of those teams I just listed have some of the better overall records in the NFL.

 
They need to do away with comp. Picks.  When Patriots lose a bunch of nobodies and get those high of picks something is clearly a clusterdunk.

 
menobrown said:
If someone knows how to look up overall team records since 1994 when comp picks came out I'd be interested.

I do know that Baltimore has got the most, Dallas and NE tied for second with Green Bay 4th in most comp picks awarded since that time and I'm guessing since that 1994 era 3 of those teams I just listed have some of the better overall records in the NFL.
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Code: 
NEP	291	125	0.700
GBP	263	153	0.632
PIT	263	153	0.632
IND	242	172	0.585
DEN	242	174	0.582
BAL	214	169.5	0.558
PHI	232	184	0.558
SEA	228.5	187.5	0.549
MIN	227	189	0.546
DAL	226	190	0.543
KCC	226	190	0.543
NOS	215	201	0.517
SFO	213.5	202.5	0.513
ATL	209.5	206	0.504
LAC	207	209	0.498
TEN	206	210	0.495
MIA	204	212	0.490
CAR	195.5	204.5	0.489
NYG	203.5	212.5	0.489
CHI	196	220	0.471
BUF	191	225	0.459
HOU	131	157	0.455
NYJ	187	229	0.450
TBB	186	230	0.447
LAR	183.5	232.5	0.441
JAC	176	224	0.440
CIN	178.5	237.5	0.429
ARI	176	240	0.423
WAS	175	241	0.421
OAK	169	247	0.406
DET	160.5	255.5	0.386
CLE	117.5	250.5	0.319
 
Dr. Dan said:
I was just pointing out that the successful teams arent on this list. I'd rather be in the Super Bowl than be a "winner" in comp picks. Of course, their time will come too, but being good at gaming the comp pick system hasnt really paid off it seems for most teams
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The 3rd round comp picks list in 2020 is literally full of the "Who's who" of multiple Super Bowl appearances in recent history....but yeah run with the one year sample size of the Chiefs and 49ers not having comp picks as a measuring stick.

 
Dr. Dan said:
How far back are you going in "recent history?"

How many players are still on the 2011 Steelers? 2012 Giants? 2013 Ravens?

There are 3 teams on that list within the last 5 years (10 total teams). New England is an obvious asterisk... for many reasons
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Man you are right.  The Steelers, Ravens, Giants, Seahawks, Patriots, Rams, and Eagles...those teams haven't been among the leaders in Super Bowl appearances since 2000. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
20 years is recent history? 

That's where I walk away from this discussion 
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Thank tha LAWD you are....cuz you post 5,000 times a day and are wrong 4,999 times a day.  The history of comp picks and winning franchises is staring you in the face.  If you think that isn't "Modern history" then show me a list of multiple Super Bowl appearance franchises that aren't on that list outside of the Broncos bringing in Manning during that time span.  Disputing 20 years as not modern is funny when 12 of the last 20 Super Bowls appearances have been from the franchises i mentioned.  What time span do you want to cut this down to to be right???...I have your answer, IT'S ONE F'N YEAR, DOC.

 
Dr. Dan said:
20 years is recent history? 

That's where I walk away from this discussion 

ETA: Of course good teams are going to lose good players and get comp picks. My point is that "winning" the comp system may not be something to thump your chest over. Only one team that you listed had sustained success, and their history is tainted in more than one way. 

If you cant grasp that point then theres no point discussing further
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Considering the comp pick system has been around since 1994 I think a 20 year sample size is acceptable. Now that you can trade those picks (as of like 2 yrs ago) I think it’s even more important to understand how to game that system, but it favors good teams in my opinion. 

If I were taking over as gm of a bad team with cap room I would overpay  to lure the best guys I can on a 1 year deal (being careful not to do this within division to give them comp picks.) The comp pick is assigned based off the following years contract, so you simply trade any vet you have on an expiring contract (that isn’t in the long term plans), be up front with the guys you want to keep and if they aren’t on board try to restructure to a 1 year deal if possible. Target guys who would be favorable to 1yr prove it deals.  Try to move a few current picks for future assets as well if you can get an upgrade (5th this year for a 4th next year etc.) Try tonfarm the system for like 10 comp picks. 
 

Id also find a guy that can kick and tell him to start practice punting, but that’s in another thread...I have some bold ideas on how to manage an nfl team.....

 
Snorkelson said:
Considering the comp pick system has been around since 1994 I think a 20 year sample size is acceptable. Now that you can trade those picks (as of like 2 yrs ago) I think it’s even more important to understand how to game that system, but it favors good teams in my opinion. 

If I were taking over as gm of a bad team with cap room I would overpay  to lure the best guys I can on a 1 year deal (being careful not to do this within division to give them comp picks.) The comp pick is assigned based off the following years contract, so you simply trade any vet you have on an expiring contract (that isn’t in the long term plans), be up front with the guys you want to keep and if they aren’t on board try to restructure to a 1 year deal if possible. Target guys who would be favorable to 1yr prove it deals.  Try to move a few current picks for future assets as well if you can get an upgrade (5th this year for a 4th next year etc.) Try tonfarm the system for like 10 comp picks. 
 

Id also find a guy that can kick and tell him to start practice punting, but that’s in another thread...I have some bold ideas on how to manage an nfl team.....
Click to expand...
I doubt it would be that easy. For starters, any player that would merit a third or fourth round compensatory pick would have to earn $10+ million a year. So how much would a team be willing to over pay to sign that guy to a one year deal? Those top free agents would be looking to cash in for a multi-year deal with tens of millions guaranteed. Would a one year $20 million offer be better than a five year, $80 million offer with $40 million guaranteed?

Lower tier free agents would only fetch last day compensatory picks (if they even qualify). And of course, most free agent signings will be applied to negate free agent player losses. 

So as the GM as a losing team, is adding a couple of 6th and 7th round compensatory picks really going to change the culture of your team?

Perhaps a better strategy would be to trade for players at the deadline on an expiring contracts. But that would involve moving assets, which may go against stockpiling compensatory picks. 

There is a limit as to how many compensatory picks assigned to a single team. The most a team can earn is 4.  At a certain point the extra lower tier guys would not even count. 

The way the better teams have been able to exploit the system is through better player development to have replacement players in place so they can let the incumbent walk to gain the compensatory pick. 

So as the GM, the first thing you need to do is work on developing players and worry about the compensatory picks down the road. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I doubt it would be that easy. For starters, any player that would merit a third or fourth round compensatory pick would have to earn $10+ million a year. So how much would a team be willing to over pay to sign that guy to a one year deal? Those top free agents would be looking to cash in for a multi-year deal with tens of millions guaranteed. Would a one year $20 million offer be better than a five year, $80 million offer with $40 million guaranteed?

Lower tier free agents would only fetch last day compensatory picks (if they even qualify). And of course, most free agent signings will be applied to negate free agent player losses. 

So as the GM as a losing team, is adding a couple of 6th and 7th round compensatory picks really going to change the culture of your team?

Perhaps a better strategy would be to trade for players at the deadline on an expiring contracts. But that would involve moving assets, which may go against stockpiling compensatory picks. 

There is a limit as to how many compensatory picks assigned to a single team. The most a team can earn is 4.  At a certain point the extra lower tier guys would not even count. 

The way the better teams have been able to exploit the system is through better player development to have replacement players in place so they can let the incumbent walk to gain the compensatory pick. 

So as the GM, the first thing you need to do is work on developing players and worry about the compensatory picks down the road. 
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I didn’t know there was a limit, probably why I’m not a gm. However, I think the market for 1 year deals could still be exploited (if you have cap room.) Washington would be in a prime spot to do this. 

 
Snorkelson said:
I didn’t know there was a limit, probably why I’m not a gm. However, I think the market for 1 year deals could still be exploited (if you have cap room.) Washington would be in a prime spot to do this. 
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Generally speaking, the guys that take one year deals are usually guys that are looking for "prove it" deals coming off injuries (generally having to take LESS money not more just to get a shot), guys that are older vets looking to latch on somewhere (older vets don't qualify for comp picks), or guys that didn't pan out and got cut (released players don't qualify for comp picks).

While we fans like to think we have alternative solutions and better strategies, after 26 years, I am pretty sure if there was a way to find untapped resources, someone would have unlocked them by now . . . especially with Bill Belichick in the league.

Yes, it's better to have more draft picks that fewer draft picks. But that's just one piece of the puzzle. And comp picks are probably harder to get on bad teams (those coaches and GM's have a very short timeframe to turn things around, so they pretty much have to make a splash in free agency to keep their jobs . . . thus minimizing any chance of getting a top compensatory pick).

 
Anarchy99 said:
Generally speaking, the guys that take one year deals are usually guys that are looking for "prove it" deals coming off injuries (generally having to take LESS money not more just to get a shot), guys that are older vets looking to latch on somewhere (older vets don't qualify for comp picks), or guys that didn't pan out and got cut (released players don't qualify for comp picks).

While we fans like to think we have alternative solutions and better strategies, after 26 years, I am pretty sure if there was a way to find untapped resources, someone would have unlocked them by now . . . especially with Bill Belichick in the league.

Yes, it's better to have more draft picks that fewer draft picks. But that's just one piece of the puzzle. And comp picks are probably harder to get on bad teams (those coaches and GM's have a very short timeframe to turn things around, so they pretty much have to make a splash in free agency to keep their jobs . . . thus minimizing any chance of getting a top compensatory pick).
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It’s the most copycat groupthink business in the world. 
You’re right of course, but humor me a bit longer in my hypothetical gm hat- 

You in fact could collect expiring contracts, much like Cleveland took Osweilers contract for a pick. 
 

While many players want a long term deal, perhaps the market isn’t favorable this year, ie deep wr class depresses the market. 
 

You make some other great points, and looks like you get the gm job before me.

:kicksrock:

 
Snorkelson said:
It’s the most copycat groupthink business in the world. 
You’re right of course, but humor me a bit longer in my hypothetical gm hat- 

You in fact could collect expiring contracts, much like Cleveland took Osweilers contract for a pick. 
 

While many players want a long term deal, perhaps the market isn’t favorable this year, ie deep wr class depresses the market. 
 

You make some other great points, and looks like you get the gm job before me.

:kicksrock:
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I have pointed out many times that the best thing teams can do is try to dissect the NE operations model and see what each individual franchise could do to emulate what the Patriots do. I have been saying this for years, and while teams don't have the luxury of having a HOF QB for two decades as a focal point, teams could make better business and personnel decisions.

NE has been able to game the compensatory pick system by bringing in guys for 20 cents on the dollar, coaching them up, and then having them sign elsewhere for huge dollars. This will be the third year in a row they will have an offensive lineman leave to sign (potentially) the largest contract ever for that position.

NE has been able to restock the fridge, so to speak, by drafting and signing castaways at several positions well (or hitting on UDFAs). To build a winning team, franchises need to get guys that overproduce their pay. NE has been able to keep doing that . . . although it remains to be seen what they will be able to do post-Brady.

 
Dr. Dan said:
KC and SF dont have any. I find that telling. 
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Why would this be relevant for this year?  Unless you simply mean the best teams didn't lose as many free agents the previous year. Then maybe. 

These picks are from last year's free agency.  Last year's super bowl teams have multiple picks (3 in the 3rd, 5 total). Which just shows the best teams have players other teams probably want to sign. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wouldn't it be more relevant to count the teams that were in the final 4 or final 8 playof teams every year?  Winning a conference championship requires a lot of good fortune, and I think we can all agree that the "best" teams aren't necessarily in the Super Bowl every year.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Generally speaking, the guys that take one year deals are usually guys that are looking for "prove it" deals coming off injuries (generally having to take LESS money not more just to get a shot), guys that are older vets looking to latch on somewhere (older vets don't qualify for comp picks), or guys that didn't pan out and got cut (released players don't qualify for comp picks).
Click to expand...
This is something I learned today is that players over 30 years old do not get the same level of comp pick as one who is younger than that.

The example was a player who the Steelers lost in free agency that otherwise would have netted a 3rd round comp pick, was only awarded a 5th round comp pick because the player was older.

What this is designed to do is compensate teams for losing quality talent in free agency that also has some longevity left in their career.

 
Amazing stat.

----------------------

Kevin Cole@KevinColePFF

Compensatory picks earned over the last 11 years:

  • Baltimore Ravens: 32
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: 0
 
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