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How will CV affect the NFL? (1 Viewer)

The tests are crap, and that is a huge reason why this trainwreck will continue.

You can have Covid and be contagious for days before testing positive.  There is an incredible number of false negatives.  

 
i think they should do best 2 out of 3

@AdamSchefter: The reported positive test on a Saints’ player was rerun and came back negative, per source. The Saints-Lions game is on.
This is where "plowing through" is going to bite them.

Get ready for a lot of positive tests come next thursday for the Saints and Lions.  There are very likely to be a handful or more players on the Saints who currently have Covid, are contagious, but are testing negative for now.  

 
Oh wait they said the original positive guy is now negative?  I read that wrong.  My bad

God these tests are terrible.  So terrible.  Amazing how bad they really are.  It is astounding.   Test the guy again right now and probably get a positive.

 
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Very thoughtful thread from Jene

@JeneBramel: Earlier this week, I questioned whether ATL (no close contacts reported, cleared to play, no subsequent positives) or TEN (cleared to play, ongoing outbreak) was the outlier situation with respect to contact tracing and testing protocols.

1/n

 
Very thoughtful thread from Jene

@JeneBramel: Earlier this week, I questioned whether ATL (no close contacts reported, cleared to play, no subsequent positives) or TEN (cleared to play, ongoing outbreak) was the outlier situation with respect to contact tracing and testing protocols.

1/n
Not saying the NFL protocols are perfect, but even perfect protocols still wont stop the enormous amount of false positive and false negatives from this god awful test.

 
Not saying the NFL protocols are perfect, but even perfect protocols still wont stop the enormous amount of false positive and false negatives from this god awful test.
Aren't false negatives far more common statically with the rapid test? 

 
Makes sense in one regard, but also makes you question how much faith they have in these tests.

@ProFootballTalk: Patriots will travel to Kansas City with two planes: One will carry roughly 20 people who had close contact with Cam Newton, and the other will carry everyone else https://wp.me/pbBqYq-bFzW

 
Thank God these NBC announcers are wearing masks below their noses (Tafoya is about 50 feet away from the nearest person) and hyperventilating trying to do their job.  Covid sucks butt.

 
Thank God these NBC announcers are wearing masks below their noses (Tafoya is about 50 feet away from the nearest person) and hyperventilating trying to do their job.  Covid sucks butt.
They need to try out different masks. They don't need to be difficult to breath through to be effective.

 
They should have gone with a shortened season to allow for makeups and additional BYE weeks potentially.  Why play any games outside of the conference?

 
ProFootballTalk:

Commissioner suggests forfeiture as potential punishment for COVID-19 protocol breaches

The two-page memo sent Monday by the Commissioner to all teams includes a two-paragraph passage that trots out the nuclear option for the league to ensure compliance with all COVID-19 protocols: The forfeiture of games.

“There have been breaches to the protocols and individual players, staff, and clubs have been disciplined as a result,” Goodell writes. “We will not only conduct reviews in cases of multiple positive tests at one club, but the league and union will continue to conduct inspections of club facilities to ensure protocol compliance. If it is determined that club personnel or players failed to have followed the protocols, discipline will be issued and will escalate where noncompliance continues. Protocol violations that result in virus spread requiring adjustments to the schedule or otherwise impacting other teams will result in additional financial and competitive discipline, including the adjustment or loss of draft choices or even the forfeit of a game.”

 
ProFootballTalk  @ProFootballTalk · 53m

NFL, NFLPA have agreed to further protocol changes, including longer onboarding process for free-agent tryouts, bans on gatherings outside the facility, limits on numbers of tryouts per week, and league-wide use of video monitoring to ensure compliance with protocols, per source.

 
Sounds like 2 things:

1) The NFL does not have any viable plan in place in case a team would not be able to play 2 games due to Covid

2) This is a shot across the bow at the Titans with the NFL investigating and believing that the Titans violated league protocols. If their game against the Bills this week can’t be played, it sounds like there’s a very real chance the league may force the Titans to forfeit rather than deal with the consequences of not having a decent plan in place if a team has to miss multiple games.

 
Sounds like 2 things:

1) The NFL does not have any viable plan in place in case a team would not be able to play 2 games due to Covid

2) This is a shot across the bow at the Titans with the NFL investigating and believing that the Titans violated league protocols. If their game against the Bills this week can’t be played, it sounds like there’s a very real chance the league may force the Titans to forfeit rather than deal with the consequences of not having a decent plan in place if a team has to miss multiple games.
If one team has a bunch of Covid and cant play while the other team is ready to roll, I am not opposed to seeing forfeits.  

It's just not ideal for fantasy, unless of course you dont have any of those players

 
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Now Stephon Gilmore is positive.  He 100% had it when he played on Monday night and was contagious.  The NFL protocol is not good.  They really need to halt the season, cut the schedule, and allow for delayed games if they want to finish a season.  They had ample time to see what was working and not working in every other major sport, and they made no meaningful adjustments whatsoever. 

 
Now Stephon Gilmore is positive.  He 100% had it when he played on Monday night and was contagious.  The NFL protocol is not good.  They really need to halt the season, cut the schedule, and allow for delayed games if they want to finish a season.  They had ample time to see what was working and not working in every other major sport, and they made no meaningful adjustments whatsoever. 
Yeah, saw that. I expect the Chiefs positive tests to start coming any day now.

 
And the Titans with two more positives, which puts another game of theirs in jeopardy.  The entire NFL season is at stake right now.  I really think they should shut down a week and reconfigure the schedule -- eliminate non-conference games and where they have already been played, eliminate non-division games 1-for-1.  Building in the ability to reschedule and still have playoffs, that also have the ability to buffer.

 
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Eff. This turned real quick. 

I agree with pausing for a week and putting players in bubbles. Either that or this season is not happening. 

 
And the Titans with two more positives, which puts another game of their in jeopardy.  The entire NFL season is at stake right now.  I really think they should shut down a week and reconfigure the schedule -- eliminate non-conference games and where they have already been played, eliminate non-division games 1-for-1.  Building in the ability to reschedule and still have playoffs, that also have the ability to buffer.
The NFL is investigating possibility that Titans players were gathering outside the facility over the last week per Mark Maske on Twitter.

 
They had ample time to see what was working and not working in every other major sport
Well, baseball speaks for itself.  It's a completely different game than smashing into each other in groups every 30 seconds  for a few hours.  

Basketball has wayyyyyy less players involved, plus they didn't even invite all the teams to the bubble.  Thinking the NFL could do a bubble would be silly.  They would need an entire city quarantined, not to mention protocols for adding players mid season.

Plus, they can have all the rules and protocols in the world, but the players are a bunch of neanderthal imbociles.  Good luck getting everyone to follow any of it.

 
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Well, baseball speaks for itself.  It's a completely different game than smashing into each other in groups every 30 seconds  for a few hours.  

Basketball has wayyyyyy less players involved, plus they didn't even invite all the teams to the bubble.  Thinking the NFL could do a bubble would be silly.  They would need an entire city quarantined, not to mention protocols for adding players mid season.

Plus, they can have all the rules and protocols in the world, but the players are a bunch of neanderthal imbociles.  Good luck getting everyone to follow any of it.
Right.  Which is why they needed a home-city bubble with a shortened season and/or should have been doing game-day testing with better social distancing at practice facilities.  

 
How does the NFL handle the fact that the tests are garbage though?
I thought what they were using was something similar to the South Korean tests from February -- the SK drive-through tests with ~70% accuracy (more false positives, very few false negatives). Are they using something altogether different?

 
Now Stephon Gilmore is positive.  He 100% had it when he played on Monday night and was contagious.  The NFL protocol is not good.  They really need to halt the season, cut the schedule, and allow for delayed games if they want to finish a season.  They had ample time to see what was working and not working in every other major sport, and they made no meaningful adjustments whatsoever. 


Yeah, saw that. I expect the Chiefs positive tests to start coming any day now.
But the Vikings played the Titans right before they all started testing positive and there has not been an outbreak with the Vikings.  That should at least give some hope that game transmission may be harder than some think. 

 
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Thinking the NFL could do a bubble would be silly.  They would need an entire city quarantined, not to mention protocols for adding players mid season.
Why do people keep saying "A" bubble? Like, one single bubble? Nobody is saying they need a schedule where all 32 teams are playing one another.

They could have had a few bubbles with an altered schedule and a second bubble just for the playoffs. If people remember the owners nearly threw a tantrum at the thought of missing the preseason games so they were completely unwilling to bend on having a full schedule as normal for broadcast revenue reasons. That's the real problem here.

 
How does the NFL handle the fact that the tests are garbage though?
Well, if they weren't hell-bent on trying to get a 16 game schedule in 17 weeks like 2020 was your average year they could have had a schedule where AFC teams only play other AFC teams(and NO, not EVERY other team in the AFC) and NFC teams only play NFC teams. Each week they could have alternated an AFC schedule or an NFC schedule and that would have allowed two weeks worth of testing between any team actually having to suit up and play a game. With fewer than 16 games they could have included a bye week once a month so if a game DID need to get moved around before the playoffs it wouldn't have been much less difficult to do so. 

This is all off the top of my head and I'm not getting paid 7 figures to devise a way for a $15 BILLION league to go off the rails. Just about the worst possible plan was, "Well, we will just test and cross our fingers that nobody tests positive". How many sports leagues around the world just assumed that they were going to travel around the country, hold a completely un-altered regular season schedule, and business would run as normal in 2020? THAT is the definition of madness imo and some of us were saying it all summer long.

 
I thought what they were using was something similar to the South Korean tests from February -- the SK drive-through tests with ~70% accuracy (more false positives, very few false negatives). Are they using something altogether different?
I can't say for sure what the South Korea test is but I believe the NFL is using a test with nearly ZERO false positives and between 2% and 37% false negatives. With that many false negatives you really need a high number of negative of tests to be sure someone truly is negative.

The one thing I don't blame the league for is the tests they have at their disposal. But it is up to them how they run the league knowing how accurate or inaccurate the tests are. 

 
They would have to find a way to earn enough money to buy a ticket to a game and then attempt to get close to an opposing player.    Maybe they could do this first. 
What makes you think it would occur at a game? It would be more likely at a hotel, restaurant, airplane, etc.

 
I have to give the NFL owners a great deal more credit than I had previously. They went forward with a plan that almost any thinking person realized would be fraught with problems but..... COINCIDENTALLY it also cost the league the least amount of money. 

Then, when things predictably started going wrong they have pivoted and convinced the general public that individual teams and specific players are to blame. It's unbelievable how gullible some fans/media are. They can't lap this up fast enough. "It's all the TITANS fault! Look how smoothly the schedule worked out in baseball!". JFC.

The owners don't shorten the schedule so they don't lose any of the broadcasting money, they don't invest in bubbles(even if it was just some hotels/busses/stadiums that were closed to the general public), and when the players/teams actually do have the audacity to catch COVID by bouncing back and forth across the country the league has the gall to not even pay the players because they tried to play out this ridiculous plan under a pandemic. It's pretty brilliant, really. 

 
I have to give the NFL owners a great deal more credit than I had previously. They went forward with a plan that almost any thinking person realized would be fraught with problems but..... COINCIDENTALLY it also cost the league the least amount of money. 

Then, when things predictably started going wrong they have pivoted and convinced the general public that individual teams and specific players are to blame. It's unbelievable how gullible some fans/media are. They can't lap this up fast enough. "It's all the TITANS fault! Look how smoothly the schedule worked out in baseball!". JFC.

The owners don't shorten the schedule so they don't lose any of the broadcasting money, they don't invest in bubbles(even if it was just some hotels/busses/stadiums that were closed to the general public), and when the players/teams actually do have the audacity to catch COVID by bouncing back and forth across the country the league has the gall to not even pay the players because they tried to play out this ridiculous plan under a pandemic. It's pretty brilliant, really. 
The NFL has 2 teams struggling with Covid right now. One the NFL forced to jam a bunch of close contacts to a recent positive in a plane together and then stuffed them in a small locker room despite that team’s request for a larger locker room. The other consistently ignored Covid protocols and continued to meet together despite having a bunch of positives and being ordered not to.

While I do agree with you that the NFL has handled this terribly and that their plan from the beginning was garbage, almost all teams have managed to keep this thing at bay so far. IMO, the NFL likely caused the issue in NE by not postponing the Chiefs game, but the Titans issues are wholly on themselves.

But it certainly is a joke that they didn’t create mini bubbles, didn’t build in more byes, didn’t make other schedule adjustments, didn’t account for most predictable situations, etc. Goodell should lose his job over his terrible leadership through this.

 
The NFL has 2 teams struggling with Covid right now. One the NFL forced to jam a bunch of close contacts to a recent positive in a plane together and then stuffed them in a small locker room despite that team’s request for a larger locker room. The other consistently ignored Covid protocols and continued to meet together despite having a bunch of positives and being ordered not to.

While I do agree with you that the NFL has handled this terribly and that their plan from the beginning was garbage, almost all teams have managed to keep this thing at bay so far. IMO, the NFL likely caused the issue in NE by not postponing the Chiefs game, but the Titans issues are wholly on themselves.

But it certainly is a joke that they didn’t create mini bubbles, didn’t build in more byes, didn’t make other schedule adjustments, didn’t account for most predictable situations, etc. Goodell should lose his job over his terrible leadership through this.
Well, we are only a quarter of the way through the schedule so far. Teams had more or less been practicing in their own bubble until Week #1.

Maybe THIS is as bad as it's going to get.... but I would bet against it.

 
A bunch of early 20 somethings doing the right thing?  Yeah, what could go wrong?

Week 4.  I am predicting "something" drastic by week 4.   Not sure what.  Maybe cancelled games, maybe a team forfeiting 3 weeks.  Maybe season cancelled.  Who knows.

The game of football, the mentality of the players who play football, and the larger numbers will make this 100x more difficult to pull off than MLB or the NBA
Hi @ghostguy123 

I try to be a man of my word. I told you I'd buy you a beer if you were wrong. What kind of beer do you like and PM me your address. 

Hats off to the NFL. They absolutely crushed this. You were 100% right, I had the same worries with young athletes and things going wrong. And they surely had rough spots. But in the end, they delivered in a huge way. Well done. 

 
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