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Horses out of the barn: things that may change forever after coronavirus  (1 Viewer)

Otis

Footballguy
What are some things that you think may be permanently changed by this pandemic?  Here are a few that have come to mind for me:

Work from home.  So many of the generation that is still in charge doesn’t really understand work from home. It’s not old school and they can’t get behind it. A lot of industries and companies have embraced it but others have not. But they’ve been forced to do so now. Probably for months. And after that happens, isn’t the horse out of the barn?  Once everyone has shown that they can carry on in their jobs every bit as much remotely, how do you go back?  Just seems like this will result in a dramatic shift for those folks whose jobs can be performed just the same remotely. It’s the nightmare scenario for the anti-work-from-home management folks.

Cruises.  I’ve been pretty vocal about my feelings on these and what a scam I think these floating tin prisons are. A vacation to.... well, the middle of the ocean. Sure, they have drinks and views and sun and everything you can get an at actual beach vacation at an actual place. Anyway, we could debate the merits of these awful things all day, but what I think is clear is I don’t see how this industry bounces back. Like, ever. Airlines and travel will, because the government will and needs to save them. But this?  I just don’t see it. But who knows, I guess if the government props them up, maybe they survive, and people start coming back?

Movie theaters. Some of the studios like Universal Studios announced they would release the upcoming movies direct to home on demand. I’ve always wondered about this. I have little interest in sitting in a room with a couple hundred strangers to watch a movie I’m excited to see. I’d much rather watch at home.  I’d pay double to do so if I could.  Always felt this way and wondered about the theaters’ stranglehold on this.  Well, now, how do you go back?  Yeah someone wouldn’t gouge you anymore on overpriced popcorn and coke, but then again, the studios if they model it right could make just as much money. Maybe more. Feels like a game changer. 

Hygiene. We actually wash our hands now and are mindful about germs, I think in a way we never have been before. Will it change the way we behave about social interaction at least for a while?

What else in society will be forever changed by this whole mess?

 
Flu season - there’s always been the warnings out that you should get your flu shot to help protect those who are vulnerable. It will be taken much more seriously now that everyone know how many deaths happen every flu season.

Social distancing - I think more people will continue social distancing even after we get through this. Less direct skin contact, keeping good distance from each other and avoiding big gatherings.

 
Agree with all of Otis' topics, Ill add the following:

Govt. Preparedness for Pandemics

Reliance on China for Certain Products

Paycheck to Paycheck living and fiscal responsibility for the Middle Class and Upper Middle Class(wishful thinking but one can dream)

Overall Trust of China

Food/Goods Home Delivery

Distrust in Financial Planners and the Stock Market 

Cost/Benefit Analysis of lives lost vs. costs to the economy

Healthcare Centralization

 
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I kind of doubt it.  If the recovery rate stays as high as it has been among the non-elderly, people will rationalize that it was only the old and the already sick who were at risk, and you will hear a lot of "we can't live our lives in fear."

I also have a sneaking suspicion that this will be something that gets more politicized in retrospect. The right will say it was an over-reaction to take these actions, we blew up the economy when we didn't have to, we were manipulated by the media.  The left will call for more preparedness spending in the future, call the doubters anti-science, and away we go.

 
I kind of doubt it.  If the recovery rate stays as high as it has been among the non-elderly, people will rationalize that it was only the old and the already sick who were at risk, and you will hear a lot of "we can't live our lives in fear."

I also have a sneaking suspicion that this will be something that gets more politicized in retrospect. The right will say it was an over-reaction to take these actions, we blew up the economy when we didn't have to, we were manipulated by the media.  The left will call for more preparedness spending in the future, call the doubters anti-science, and away we go.
Same as it ever was. If the virus becomes contained and things return to normal in a month the right will point and say overreaction and the left will point to all the measures we have taken as the reason it was contained. 

 
Cruises will be back. Movies will be back. People will go back to being disgusting and not washing their hands. Savings/retirement balances will continue to be lower than they should be.

I can definitely see an uptick in WFH after all of this most but I think most things in life will go back to normal.

 
. I have little interest in sitting in a room with a couple hundred strangers to watch a movie I’m excited to see. I’d much rather watch at home.  I’d pay double to do so if I could.  Always felt this way and wondered about the theaters’ stranglehold on this. 
Because I, and many others, want to watch a movie in a cinema.  Just because you don't, doesn't mean nobody does.

Besides, how do teens neck in their parents' living rooms?

 
Same as it ever was. If the virus becomes contained and things return to normal in a month the right will point and say overreaction and the left will point to all the measures we have taken as the reason it was contained. 
Thanks for wrapping up several future political threads in one short paragraph.

 
Cruises.  I’ve been pretty vocal about my feelings on these and what a scam I think these floating tin prisons are. A vacation to.... well, the middle of the ocean. Sure, they have drinks and views and sun and everything you can get an at actual beach vacation at an actual place. Anyway, we could debate the merits of these awful things all day, but what I think is clear is I don’t see how this industry bounces back. Like, ever. Airlines and travel will, because the government will and needs to save them. But this?  I just don’t see it. But who knows, I guess if the government props them up, maybe they survive, and people start coming back?
They will suffer, but I cant see going from >25 million passengers a year to gone. The prices will drop significantly at first and people will return. 

 
Listen to Yang:

If you were president right now, how would you design a coronavirus-specific basic income relief plan? 

I would do a flat $1,000 per individual adult and then $500 per child under 18 and do it for three months. I like the earned income tax credit, but it doesn’t capture everyone that it would need to, and you don’t have much time in this kind of crisis. The downsides of being under-inclusive are high, so you’d want to err on the side of completeness if you can. Just say, ‘Look, if you’re an adult you get $1,000, and for every child you get an additional $500.’ That would secure more people’s ability to weather this storm.

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Mitt wants in now too...

 
I agree with Otis that WFH will become a little more normalized.  I don't really think it's going to replace regular office life -- there's too much value in having people physically together -- but I can see it gaining a more solid foothold in certain industries.

I also agree that this is the death knell for movie theaters.  They were on their last legs anyway, and this is the coup de grace.

 
What are some things that you think may be permanently changed by this pandemic?  Here are a few that have come to mind for me:

Work from home.  So many of the generation that is still in charge doesn’t really understand work from home. It’s not old school and they can’t get behind it. A lot of industries and companies have embraced it but others have not. But they’ve been forced to do so now. Probably for months. And after that happens, isn’t the horse out of the barn?  Once everyone has shown that they can carry on in their jobs every bit as much remotely, how do you go back?  Just seems like this will result in a dramatic shift for those folks whose jobs can be performed just the same remotely. It’s the nightmare scenario for the anti-work-from-home management folks.

Movie theaters. Some of the studios like Universal Studios announced they would release the upcoming movies direct to home on demand. I’ve always wondered about this. I have little interest in sitting in a room with a couple hundred strangers to watch a movie I’m excited to see. I’d much rather watch at home.  I’d pay double to do so if I could.  Always felt this way and wondered about the theaters’ stranglehold on this.  Well, now, how do you go back?  Yeah someone wouldn’t gouge you anymore on overpriced popcorn and coke, but then again, the studios if they model it right could make just as much money. Maybe more. Feels like a game changer. 
I worked Full Time from home at my last company for 4 years and my current company has a "Work at home when you need/want to"( Now WFH until further notice) ..
I mentioned in another thread some people have told me straight out they have a hard time concentrating when WFH...  and I guess there are many in the same boat as we have a meeting tomorrow to help people be more productive while working from home..
So strange to me, but then again I've been doing it for years and find myself more productive at home then at work.

As for Movies - I prefer the theater.. Yea, you have to deal with some obnoxious people. But at least while at the Theater, for 2+ hours, you are "lost to the real world"..
When watching at home there is always distractions of others talking, phone calls, the "look at my phone", etc. that distract from the escape.

 
Paycheck to Paycheck living and fiscal responsibility for the Middle Class and Upper Middle Class(wishful thinking but one can dream)
Short term sure.. but long term I don't see this changing the way Americans spend..
Heck, some are in major debt right now from buying up all the :toilet:   paper.. 

 
Cruises.  I’ve been pretty vocal about my feelings on these and what a scam I think these floating tin prisons are. A vacation to.... well, the middle of the ocean. Sure, they have drinks and views and sun and everything you can get an at actual beach vacation at an actual place. Anyway, we could debate the merits of these awful things all day, but what I think is clear is I don’t see how this industry bounces back. Like, ever. Airlines and travel will, because the government will and needs to save them. But this?  I just don’t see it. But who knows, I guess if the government props them up, maybe they survive, and people start coming back?
You and I share the same feelings about cruises.  But I don't hope they go away. In fact, I think they serve an extremely useful purpose.  They keep the hordes of bad tourists away from some of my favorite destinations.  Can you imagine what happens to some of the Caribbean islands without cruise ships? Yes, they may be able to visit and dock for a day easily now but it's a damn site better than them coming in by plane and staying for multiple days. Then again, most of these jabronis are probably the Sandals crowd so at least they'd be contained once there.

 
More online education as universities figure out this is a great way to cut costs.
This one I can definitely see. The online education business is already in a rapid growth phase, and recent events will probably only accelerate it more.

As for human nature/spending, sadly I don't see much of a change when we come out of this. Not a whole lot seemed to change in this regard post-9/11 and post-2008 credit crisis. They'll be some things on the margin, but overall human nature is very hard to change. 

 
Unless we have massive deaths or very famous deaths, not much will change. If we get through this with a “normal” amount of deaths taking place mainly in the elderly population, we’ll all pat ourselves on the back and move on. 
 

 
Unless we have massive deaths or very famous deaths, not much will change. If we get through this with a “normal” amount of deaths taking place mainly in the elderly population, we’ll all pat ourselves on the back and move on. 
 
What constitutes a normal amount of deaths?

 
Sub-2% give or take which is where we’re getting to regardless.  Amount of diagnoses continue to go up exponentially, but deaths aren’t following most cases. 

 
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What constitutes a normal amount of deaths?
Let me expand on where I come from...

I work in healthcare analytics and by and large people are dumb. I can tell someone that with their diabetes and comorbidities, they’re a near certainty to die in the next 5 years or if they’re lucky they’ll just have a massive health event costing them thousands.  The response nearly everytime is “well, my sister weighs more than I do and she’s doing just fine” or some other platitude. 

Humans have a remarkable ability to displace themselves from the reality of the world if it allows them to continue living the way they always have. I don’t need to diet, I’ll be fine.  I don’t need to carpool, the earth is fine.  I don’t need to quarantine, I’ll be fine.  It’s what we do. 

 
One of the perhaps less macro topics I've seen discussed recently is that many industries will get an idea of how valuable their massive business conferences really are.  Thousands of business / industry conferences will be cancelled worldwide over the next 6 months (or longer).  Many of these industries will realize they didn't miss anything, and that the cost isn't worth doing them going forward.

 
I hope public bathroom design will finally be fixed forever. For the love of god.

When in public, especially when eating at a restaurant or snacking at the movies etc, I've always washed my hands. Honestly, even being forced to touch elevator buttons or various keypads throughout the day usually prompts me to wash my hands... so I wash my hands often while in public spaces. Why on earth in 2020 are so many public bathrooms designed so that after you wash your hands you are trapped in a room where the only way out is touching a door handle that has more than likely been touched by 50+ odd strangers that have been handling their crank and very well may not have washed their hands?! A work around in SOME bathrooms is using a paper towel to open the door but more and more bathrooms don't have paper towels anymore. Really, in 2020 bathrooms should have entrances/exits that don't use doors at all but have a privacy wall you simply walk around instead.

And while we are at it...... faucets with handles. Even if by some miracle 100% of people did wash their hands in most restrooms you need to turn off the water by touching a faucet that 100% of the people had dirty hands to turn on in the first place. SOME faucets sense your hands under them to automatically turn the water on and off. Seems reasonable. But it also seemed reasonable in elementary school in the 1980's when they had a foot pedal to turn on the water while you washed your hands. As you walked away the pedal was released and turned off the water. Seems simple enough. Why the F are there still so many bathrooms that require you to use your freshly cleaned hands to turn off a filthy handle?

Anyway, rant over. For now. Simply bathroom design shouldn't be this hard.

 
Work from home.  So many of the generation that is still in charge doesn’t really understand work from home. It’s not old school and they can’t get behind it. A lot of industries and companies have embraced it but others have not. But they’ve been forced to do so now. Probably for months. And after that happens, isn’t the horse out of the barn?  Once everyone has shown that they can carry on in their jobs every bit as much remotely, how do you go back?  Just seems like this will result in a dramatic shift for those folks whose jobs can be performed just the same remotely. It’s the nightmare scenario for the anti-work-from-home management folks.
This is going to be an interesting one for me.  It seems crazy that many workers spend an hour or more on the road each day to get to an office and back, when 90% of their job can be done from home.  The issue ties directly into the environmental concerns, particularly in the many communities in our country where there is no viable public transportation system.  When I picture a normal, twice-daily rush hour in my city, with tens of thousands of people sitting alone in their cars burning fuel 30-40 or more minutes each way, its honestly just absolutely stupid.

Of course, it all comes down to trust.  Whether young or old, if you own a business and have to rely on your hourly staff to remain productive when they are at home, its just natural that you're going to prefer to bring them in to an office where everyone is watching everyone.  The main thing I am looking for in my company as we transition to full-time WFH for most of our staff is how to monitor productivity without being big-brotherish.

 
If they announced a magical total cure tomorrow, I think people would 

- go get a haircut.  Good luck getting a haircut the first week that people are released into the wild. Lines out the door at supercuts/great clips/ etc 

- hit the bars. This is a great time for ugly people who want casual sex. There will be some pent up demand. Cougars everywhere.  

- invite people to their houses - so many people doing spring cleaning right now because they're locked in.  Barbecue season around the corner. Quick come over before the place gets messy again.  

 
Listen to Yang:

If you were president right now, how would you design a coronavirus-specific basic income relief plan? 

I would do a flat $1,000 per individual adult and then $500 per child under 18 and do it for three months. I like the earned income tax credit, but it doesn’t capture everyone that it would need to, and you don’t have much time in this kind of crisis. The downsides of being under-inclusive are high, so you’d want to err on the side of completeness if you can. Just say, ‘Look, if you’re an adult you get $1,000, and for every child you get an additional $500.’ That would secure more people’s ability to weather this storm.

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Mitt wants in now too...
Tulsi Gabbard introduced a bill for this last week.  

 
You guys give a lot of credit to humans.
:goodposting: I think the only thing that may change is the WFH attitudes but that's about it. Peope gonna People man....a bit of distance and people will fall back into the same habits as before.

 
One of the perhaps less macro topics I've seen discussed recently is that many industries will get an idea of how valuable their massive business conferences really are.  Thousands of business / industry conferences will be cancelled worldwide over the next 6 months (or longer).  Many of these industries will realize they didn't miss anything, and that the cost isn't worth doing them going forward.
not disagreeing, but that will cause a massive ripple effect in other industries. 

One of my biggest clients is in the event hosting/continuing education industry and we are having those conversations right now. I personally stand to loose a lot of money annually if they move to an on-line only model. However, they do feel that the face to face interaction is very beneficial to their product. 

 
Of course, it all comes down to trust.  Whether young or old, if you own a business and have to rely on your hourly staff to remain productive when they are at home, its just natural that you're going to prefer to bring them in to an office where everyone is watching everyone.  The main thing I am looking for in my company as we transition to full-time WFH for most of our staff is how to monitor productivity without being big-brotherish.
I'm not so sure about that.

I think it all comes down to measuring and rewarding a level of productivity rather than time spent "working". Culturally we wear the number of hours we work each week as some sort of merit badge. I've worked few hours a week, and I've worked many hours a week. There are so many "10 hour days" that really don't boil down to much more work getting done than a focused 4 hours imo.... and if you are subjected to a career with "meetings" then the non productive time goes up by an order of magnitude. Not saying all meetings are bad and pointless. Just 99%. Oddly, it's almost always by 1% that desperately, DESPERATELY need their opinion or point of view heard. That's all. They just want all work to stop so they have their time to be heard.

Of course I also think there are large portions of work environments that desperately don't want their personal productivity to be quantified or measured in any way for fairly obvious reasons.

 
Handshakes as a greeting will be a thing of the past.

Some companies will realize they don`t need to pay rent on nearly as much office space.

Flying everywhere for a sales call or meeting.  Air travel down, car travel up.  Although if airlines keep prices low that could change.

Going on vacations to Italy, Spain, Europe in general might see a big drop.  At least the next 5 years or longer.

NBA, NHL, games in enclosed stadiums with 15-18K people might see a big decline for a few years. As well as concerts in the same buildings.

 
Things that probably start to go away 

- getting coffee at Starbucks/Dunkin/whatever every day will still be convenient for a lot of people but i expect a lot to get used to making their own this month and not all of them will want to go back to spending 100 bucks a month on macholachos

- all these people signing up for a month of hulu or a month of cbs all access will cancel.  These services will see a big spike in subscriptions and then a huge drop.  Getting new content is expensive already but the pipeline is going to be hurting with so many shows stopping production. Expect some services to merge to combine their subscription bases. 

- weddings - all these spring weddings getting postponed will get rescheduled into fewer available locations which means less supply and higher prices which means more people saying #### it let's elope

 
I'm not so sure about that.

I think it all comes down to measuring and rewarding a level of productivity rather than time spent "working". Culturally we wear the number of hours we work each week as some sort of merit badge. I've worked few hours a week, and I've worked many hours a week. There are so many "10 hour days" that really don't boil down to much more work getting done than a focused 4 hours imo.... and if you are subjected to a career with "meetings" then the non productive time goes up by an order of magnitude. Not saying all meetings are bad and pointless. Just 99%. Oddly, it's almost always by 1% that desperately, DESPERATELY need their opinion or point of view heard. That's all. They just want all work to stop so they have their time to be heard.

Of course I also think there are large portions of work environments that desperately don't want their personal productivity to be quantified or measured in any way for fairly obvious reasons.
I agree with everything you say, just noting that for the old guard, and even much of the younger generation, it’s primarily a trust issue.  Totally agree that a huge part of it, at least initially, is finding a way to measure or monitor productivity rather than measuring or monitoring time in the chair. 

 
Flying everywhere for a sales call or meeting.  Air travel down, car travel up.  Although if airlines keep prices low that could change.
This could be a big one. Many companies may begin to realize - if they didn't already - that with technology, a lot of meetings can be done via Zoom/Skype, etc. and can thus avoid significant travel expenses. No doubt there will need to be a significant amount of face-to-face meetings, but that could be more the exception than the rule. 

IMO airlines are going to take a big hit from reduced business travel no matter how much they try to lower their fares to raise demand..

 
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