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Horses out of the barn: things that may change forever after coronavirus  (1 Viewer)

Public Transportation - as much as people want a rail public transit is not good for a situation like this.  If you don't have a car and they close public transit your screwed.

Moar cars and urban sprawl is clearly the answer from now on.  If anything we should be focusing our efforts to reduce unnecessary vehicles by speeding up drone delivery.

 
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World trade - I can imagine a new world order where countries view many industries more strategically.  Critical industries that the country views as necessary will be a much longer list and push to be able to produce things domestically.  Think that jump out to me are the obvious like  health care products (medicines, medical equipment, masks, etc.) but think the list will be long.  

 
Capella said:
Gross menus in restaurants. I always get up to wash my hands after ordering and touching one of those. Start printing up a 100+ disposable ones a day restaurants! 
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This times infinity.

Also leaving Duty Free with less than the max booze allowable by law.

 
Capella said:
Gross menus in restaurants. I always get up to wash my hands after ordering and touching one of those. Start printing up a 100+ disposable ones a day restaurants! 
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Cheesecake Factory has disinfected their menus every hour since the moment broke out.

 
5-10 years from now, if that, things will be back to where they were.    Only thing I can see is more vaccine funding and eventually that will dwindle as well.

 
Capella said:
Yup. However, that and the thread here prepared me to stock up. 
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Disturbing thought: what if this lasts into the heart of hurricane season, now we're dealing with a pandemic and lack of power?

 
Kal El said:
Disturbing thought: what if this lasts into the heart of hurricane season, now we're dealing with a pandemic and lack of power?
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Can’t even think about that right now but if that did happen we’d go to family in Michigan. 

 
Capella said:
Well their menu is insane but most places could just print it on a sheet of paper. Raise our prices by 5 cents on drinks to cover it. Menus are disgusting. 
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This is funny to me.  You're sitting at a table others have sat at.  Touching the same stuff.  Hell using the same utensils others have stuck in their disgusting mouths.  Having food prepared by strangers in who knows what kind of environment and it's the menus that bother you about eating out? 

 
bostonfred said:
Things that probably start to go away 

- getting coffee at Starbucks/Dunkin/whatever every day will still be convenient for a lot of people but i expect a lot to get used to making their own this month and not all of them will want to go back to spending 100 bucks a month on macholachos

- all these people signing up for a month of hulu or a month of cbs all access will cancel.  These services will see a big spike in subscriptions and then a huge drop.  Getting new content is expensive already but the pipeline is going to be hurting with so many shows stopping production. Expect some services to merge to combine their subscription bases. 

- weddings - all these spring weddings getting postponed will get rescheduled into fewer available locations which means less supply and higher prices which means more people saying #### it let's elope
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There are at least 5 coffee shops within 5 minutes of my house.  Not counting Dunkin Doughnuts, 7-11 and gas stations.

For years my wife and I would both stop on our way to work and between us spent 7-10 dollars a day.    It has been over 5 years since I have been to a shop.    I make my own now before we go to bed.  Set timer for 5am and it is ready when I get up. We like the Kirkland dark at Costco that is 8.99 for a 48oz can.  It lasts about 4-5 weeks of making coffee 7 days a week.

So we went from spending around 2 grand a year on coffee out to around 100 bucks a year.

 
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Redwes25 said:
World trade - I can imagine a new world order where countries view many industries more strategically.  Critical industries that the country views as necessary will be a much longer list and push to be able to produce things domestically.  Think that jump out to me are the obvious like  health care products (medicines, medical equipment, masks, etc.) but think the list will be long.  
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Dunno. People (and companies) still like cheap stuff so it will take pretty draconian measures to ensure compliance with the buy domestic decrees

 
Working from home will gain more traction, but many offices/industries just can't go this route.

Probably see some better self sanitizing practices.

The macro-economy is about to enter a phase of massive unemployment and massive public spending to dig out of it, which will have some long term consequences.  Hoping we finally pull back on our defense spending and get this federal budget back under control.  Only other governmental debt relief would be if this epidemic wipes out enough of the elderly population to make a dent in our social security trends, but I really really hope that doesn't happen.

Life insurance companies will also likely start making disease epidemic coverage into an excluded coverage event.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I agree with Otis that WFH will become a little more normalized.  I don't really think it's going to replace regular office life -- there's too much value in having people physically together -- but I can see it gaining a more solid foothold in certain industries.

I also agree that this is the death knell for movie theaters.  They were on their last legs anyway, and this is the coup de grace.
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Is it technologically feasible to stream PPV and not have the movie pirated/ripped?

 
CletiusMaximus said:
This is going to be an interesting one for me.  It seems crazy that many workers spend an hour or more on the road each day to get to an office and back, when 90% of their job can be done from home.  The issue ties directly into the environmental concerns, particularly in the many communities in our country where there is no viable public transportation system.  When I picture a normal, twice-daily rush hour in my city, with tens of thousands of people sitting alone in their cars burning fuel 30-40 or more minutes each way, its honestly just absolutely stupid.

Of course, it all comes down to trust.  Whether young or old, if you own a business and have to rely on your hourly staff to remain productive when they are at home, its just natural that you're going to prefer to bring them in to an office where everyone is watching everyone.  The main thing I am looking for in my company as we transition to full-time WFH for most of our staff is how to monitor productivity without being big-brotherish.
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I agree with a lot of this, and to some extend with the bolded. But the word I'd use is not trust but performance management. If they don't deliver their targets, replace them (if thay can't be coached up). I don't think you need to be big brotherish in the sense of cameras and surveillance, but you need to be able to have a handle of tasks given and completed (and probably need more ways to measure customer satisfaction)

 
Pipes said:
This is funny to me.  You're sitting at a table others have sat at.  Touching the same stuff.  Hell using the same utensils others have stuck in their disgusting mouths.  Having food prepared by strangers in who knows what kind of environment and it's the menus that bother you about eating out? 
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Utensils are cleaned before each new use. Tables are wiped down. Restaurants have to pass a health inspection. Menus are passed person to person without being wiped except maybe before or after each day’s service. Not the same thing. 

 
Capella said:
Utensils are cleaned before each new use. Tables are wiped down. Restaurants have to pass a health inspection. Menus are passed person to person without being wiped except maybe before or after each day’s service. Not the same thing. 
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You ever work in a restaurant?   Most people would never eat at one if they knew the type of crap that goes on out of sight.   Clean menus would be the least of your concerns.

 
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NutterButter said:
You ever work in a restaurant?   Most people would never eat at one if they knew the type of crap that goes on out of sight.
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I understand. I just find menus disgusting because most Americans are disgusting. If others don’t care to each their own, doesn’t matter to me. 

 
Otis said:
Cruises.  I’ve been pretty vocal about my feelings on these and what a scam I think these floating tin prisons are. A vacation to.... well, the middle of the ocean. Sure, they have drinks and views and sun and everything you can get an at actual beach vacation at an actual place. Anyway, we could debate the merits of these awful things all day, but what I think is clear is I don’t see how this industry bounces back. Like, ever. Airlines and travel will, because the government will and needs to save them. But this?  I just don’t see it. But who knows, I guess if the government props them up, maybe they survive, and people start coming back?
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Cruises are extremely inexpensive, that won't change.  If you go in the low season on some of these boats where they reposition, the cost can be under $100/pp/pd 

It's nearly impossible to get that cost, anywhere.  

Even high season, the costs are insane low on these giant boats.  People have limited money, and a desire to travel.  There's really no better (or any) option.

 
Pipes said:
So you're relying on a dishwasher making $10-$12 an hour and health inspections are a joke in a lot of places.  I'm not bagging on restaurants as I love eating out.  Just puzzled by the menu phobia.  I'm sure there are a lot more places to get germs from in a restaurant than a menu. 
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It’s my thing. Doesn’t have to be yours. It’s ok. 

 
culdeus said:
Cruises are extremely inexpensive, that won't change.  If you go in the low season on some of these boats where they reposition, the cost can be under $100/pp/pd 

It's nearly impossible to get that cost, anywhere.  

Even high season, the costs are insane low on these giant boats.  People have limited money, and a desire to travel.  There's really no better (or any) option.
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Seems like a perfect vacation for kids; tons of other kids to hang with and tons of activities and all for a very affordable price especially if you don't need to pay for airfare.  

 
there are going to be more bugs like this.  new viruses popping up every year.  not all of them will be serious, some may be more serious.  we better figure out a better way to deal with them.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
One of the perhaps less macro topics I've seen discussed recently is that many industries will get an idea of how valuable their massive business conferences really are.  Thousands of business / industry conferences will be cancelled worldwide over the next 6 months (or longer).  Many of these industries will realize they didn't miss anything, and that the cost isn't worth doing them going forward.
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Could go the opposite. Businesses will see the massive losses they took due to Corona and factor not having the conference in as one of the reasons. 

 
Otis said:
Work from home.  So many of the generation that is still in charge doesn’t really understand work from home. It’s not old school and they can’t get behind it. A lot of industries and companies have embraced it but others have not. But they’ve been forced to do so now. Probably for months. And after that happens, isn’t the horse out of the barn?  Once everyone has shown that they can carry on in their jobs every bit as much remotely, how do you go back?  Just seems like this will result in a dramatic shift for those folks whose jobs can be performed just the same remotely. It’s the nightmare scenario for the anti-work-from-home management folks.
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Do you see a hit to office space/commercial real estate?

 
bostonfred said:
Things that probably start to go away 

- getting coffee at Starbucks/Dunkin/whatever every day will still be convenient for a lot of people but i expect a lot to get used to making their own this month and not all of them will want to go back to spending 100 bucks a month on macholachos

- all these people signing up for a month of hulu or a month of cbs all access will cancel.  These services will see a big spike in subscriptions and then a huge drop.  Getting new content is expensive already but the pipeline is going to be hurting with so many shows stopping production. Expect some services to merge to combine their subscription bases. 

- weddings - all these spring weddings getting postponed will get rescheduled into fewer available locations which means less supply and higher prices which means more people saying #### it let's elope
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We're starting to lose weddings now (im an event bartender on the side).  Its not terrible yet, it will be disasterous when the season starts in 6 weeks if it continues.  

 
Not related to this topic really, just thinking what a huge spike in births will be 9 months from now. 

 
tjnc09 said:
Hopefully this overweight nation starts exercising more and eating better.  Stop wasting our precious medical resources and healthcare on preventable diseases.  
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How u doing dude? Man, wow. dude this is like saying "Hopefully all the drug addicts will stop doing drugs." it's hopeless with fast food marketing to kids and being so cheap to begin with. Then you got the business plan of:  get them addicted early -> make them chronically sick -> sell our drugs to them on a permanent, regular basis. CHA CHING. bro you and I woke up and we can afford to live . but some people are poor and ignorant (God bless them). I wish it were a real possibility though brother I really do; as a nation and globally but it'll go way down the ####ter on a global scale before it ever gets better and we go back to the way we were before farming and credit/loans. Anything less would be uncivilized.

 
NutterButter said:
More like a huge spike in divorces.    I'd be going insane if I was home with my ex-wife and young kids for days on end.
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For real.  I was given the option to work from home and I declined.  I absolutely love my family but being with them 24/7 would not end well, especially trying to work from 8ish to 4ish.  I'm better off in my office for at least a handful of hours every day.  I go home and spend quality time with them and the weekends are going to be spent together 100% for the foreseeable future.

 
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