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RB Trey Sermon, 49'ers


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I think it's a good move for Sermon.  I personally don't like Master Teague that much because I believe he's just a rumbler. 

 

 

Former Oklahoma senior RB Trey Sermon transferred to Ohio State.

It's been rumored ever since Sermon entered the transfer portal last week, and now it's "official." The 6-foot, 216-pound tailback ran for 2,076 yards and 22 touchdowns in his three years with the Sooners will averaging 6.1 yards an attempt; usually as the second tailback. He's also caught 36 passes in that timeframe, and may be more involved in the passing game under Ryan Day and the Ohio State offense. Sermon should get plenty of touches, and should battle Master Teague III for the starting gig whenever Ohio State is able to take the field in 2020.

SOURCE: Joey Kaufman on Twitter

Mar 22, 2020, 3:00 PM ET

 

Edited by Joe Bryant
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Ohio State senior RB Trey Sermon carried the ball 31 times for 193 yards with a touchdown and caught four passes for 61 yards in a 49-28 win over Clemson Friday in the Sugar Bowl. 

What a two games it's been for Sermon. The 6-foot-1, 215-pound tailback scorched Northwestern for 331 yards on the ground in the Big Ten title, and while he didn't approach those marks, this is obviously nothing to sneeze at. He also just missed having a long touchdown as he was ruled down on a swing pass. The former Oklahoma tailback has really picked things up, and even if Master Teague III can play in the title game on January 11 against Alabama, it's hard to believe that Sermon won't be the bellcow. NFL scouts have to be impressed with what they've seen from Sermon over these last two contests. 

Jan 1, 2021, 11:59 PM ET

 

 

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Second game in a row that he looks awesome...has had an odd college career, with some highs and lows...not gonna base his value on one game but will really be watching him closely against Alabama...right now his game looks like it could translate very nicely to the NFL.

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Looks like a 3rd roundish pick?

Not an elite athlete but a punishing runner that will likely do well in a committee. Perhaps he lands in Atlanta or Pittsburgh, depending on the flow of RB draftees.

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If Miami doesn't like the value on Harris early, I could see Sermon to them in the later 3rd. He'd basically be what Jordan Howard was supposed to be for them this season, with Gaskin holding down the receiving back role.

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14 minutes ago, Ack88 said:

Looks like a 3rd roundish pick?

Not an elite athlete but a punishing runner that will likely do well in a committee. Perhaps he lands in Atlanta or Pittsburgh, depending on the flow of RB draftees.

He might be more than that, but we don't know because he hasn't ever stayed healthy long enough to say. Regardless of the answer, late 2/early 3 is about right - once the tier drops hit at more valuable positions. 

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I think he did well this year because they didn't play that many games. My friends and I are all happy for him, but the reason he was always RB2 with us is less about talent and more that like every 6 games he was hurt. If that's behind him, I imagine he will be drafted by an NFL GM and tons of fantasy ones.

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Ohio State senior RB Trey Sermon declared for the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Sermon's declaration comes as no surprise given how he finished off the 2020 season. Though he did miss most of the title game, Sermon (6'1/215) was a menace in the two games leading up to the national title game. Sermon ripped off 29 carries for 331 yards and two touchdowns vs Northwestern in the Big Ten title before crushing Clemson in the playoff semifinal with 31 carries for 193 yards and a score. What Sermon lacks in high-end speed, he makes up for with impressive vision and a mean rushing style that lends to squeezing the most out of even the most mundane rushes. Sermon's real concern is injuries, notably the knee injury he suffered at Oklahoma in 2019. Look for Sermon's name to be called sometime early-ish on Day 3. 

SOURCE: Trey Sermon on Twitter

Jan 17, 2021, 12:41 PM ET

 

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This guy is high on Waldman's list, according to Ross Tucker. Tucker claimed that Waldman told him he was the best back in the draft. Watching those Clemson highlights and it's hard to argue against that. He looks like he's floating out there. Whoa. This is actually going to be a good draft class for RBs, IMHO. Maybe not better than last year's, but still value to be had in the second and third round of rookie drafts depending on the NFL Draft or the undrafted landing spots of these guys. 

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I see similarities to Jordan Howard as a prospect, which is not a bad thing. Not sure about his receiving upside, but put this guy in Seattle or Pittsburgh and it's wheels up for his fantasy stock!

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Alabama, Ohio State, Washington pro days: Mac Jones excites; Justin Fields puts on a show

Excerpt:

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Sermon put eye-popping production on tape for scouts in the college postseason, amassing 589 total yards on 67 touches against Northwestern in the Big Ten title game and Clemson in the CFP semifinal before an injury knocked him out early in the national title game against Alabama. On Tuesday, he also posted some impressive numbers for scouts -- a 37-inch vertical jump, a broad jump of 10 feet, 5 inches, a short shuttle time of 4.38 and a three-cone drill clocking at 6.83, per Nagy. Sermon's 40-yard dash times of 4.60 and 4.57, while not spectacular, were fast enough to allay scouting concerns about his speed. 

"He's a violent runner. He'll drop his shoulder, you'll see some stiff-arms," Jeremiah said. "He's just a very physical guy with the ball in his hands. He caught the ball well. He's got soft hands. To me, pass protection is going to be the area where he's going to have to step up and improve."

 

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David Zach

@DavidZach16

Replying to

@HaydenWinks

I have him as the 3rd best in the class in college production when adjusted with SRS/SOS. Also has the best weight adjusted 3-cone of the group leading to what might be the highest Harvard combine metric. Putting together some pretty solid metrics for himself imo

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7 hours ago, rockaction said:

David Zach

@DavidZach16

Replying to

@HaydenWinks

I have him as the 3rd best in the class in college production when adjusted with SRS/SOS. Also has the best weight adjusted 3-cone of the group leading to what might be the highest Harvard combine metric. Putting together some pretty solid metrics for himself imo

3 cone is my go to for assessing rbs. I think there are some good rbs who will be available at the turn/rd 2 of drafts this year.

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On 3/3/2021 at 4:51 AM, rockaction said:

This guy is high on Waldman's list, according to Ross Tucker. Tucker claimed that Waldman told him he was the best back in the draft. Watching those Clemson highlights and it's hard to argue against that. He looks like he's floating out there. Whoa. This is actually going to be a good draft class for RBs, IMHO. Maybe not better than last year's, but still value to be had in the second and third round of rookie drafts depending on the NFL Draft or the undrafted landing spots of these guys. 

Skills and traits aren't Sermon's problem. Staying on the field is. I think he may be the best pure RB in this class, but there's more to being a good RB in our game than just that.

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13 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

What happens if Sermon goes someplace like... Pittsburgh?

He probably shoots up to 1st rd depending on how everything else shakes out.

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1 minute ago, Shawnky said:

He probably shoots up to 1st rd depending on how everything else shakes out.

I agree if it's the second, maybe the third or before. If you're assuming the second round, then yeah. Third and later and I'm not so positive, but I guess so. Third and later might mean they bring in another back or bring back Conner at a reduced rate. I'd still have him rated highly, personally (and I do have him rated highly) but his rookie ADP will reflect his draft capital. 

Also, Pittsburgh likes all-around backs. Sermon only caught about twelve targets in either college or at Ohio St., I believe, so the likelihood of them taking him is diminished. It's not a foregone conclusion they won't, it's just that the profile doesn't seem to fit.

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24 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

What happens if Sermon goes someplace like... Pittsburgh?

If he's a second round pick in the real NFL draft he'll likely be in contention in the 6'ish range in my draft and by in contention where I think he goes. If one of the top 3 RB's land poorly I think he could jump them.

If he's round 3, which is I think is more likely,  I'd recall Vaughn last year who went in round 3 and then proceeded to have an ADP just a notch above real first round picks like Jefferson, Ruggs and Reagor in say FFPC leagues. I'd think he'd likely be a first round lock and might in some drafts still hit that 6-7 type range if he's preferred over one the Bama WR's.

In short in FFPC leagues if he's a second round pick he's a lock mid to high first round pick and if he's a third round pick he should be a mid to late round one guy.

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13 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I agree if it's the second, maybe the third or before. If you're assuming the second round, then yeah. Third and later and I'm not so positive, but I guess so. Third and later might mean they bring in another back or bring back Conner at a reduced rate. I'd still have him rated highly, personally (and I do have him rated highly) but his rookie ADP will reflect his draft capital. 

Also, Pittsburgh likes all-around backs. Sermon only caught about twelve targets in either college or at Ohio St., I believe, so the likelihood of them taking him is diminished. It's not a foregone conclusion they won't, it's just that the profile doesn't seem to fit.

Oh yeah.  I'm assuming rd 3 or above.

 

Was Conner much of a receiver?  I honestly don't know because I've never drafted him.  I've never been a fan.  Before Bell, I don't recall them having much of a pass catching back.  Don't recall Mendenhall or Bettis being part of the passing game.  Was Fast Willie?

Edited by Shawnky
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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If he's a second round pick in the real NFL draft he'll likely be in contention in the 6'ish range in my draft and by in contention where I think he goes. If one of the top 3 RB's land poorly I think he could jump them.

If he's round 3, which is I think is more likely,  I'd recall Vaughn last year who went in round 3 and then proceeded to have an ADP just a notch above real first round picks like Jefferson, Ruggs and Reagor in say FFPC leagues. I'd think he'd likely be a first round lock and might in some drafts still hit that 6-7 type range if he's preferred over one the Bama WR's.

In short in FFPC leagues if he's a second round pick he's a lock mid to high first round pick and if he's a third round pick he should be a mid to late round one guy.

You're probably right. I have 1.04 and 1.05. If Pittsburgh drafts him in the second or third round, he likely doesn't make it past someone like me. All it takes is one person.

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Just now, Shawnky said:

Oh yeah.  I'm assuming rd 3 or above.

Was Conner much of a receiver?  I honestly don't know because I've never drafted him.  I've never been a fan.  Before Bell, I don't recall them having much of a pass catching back.  Don't recall Mendenhall or Berries being part of the passing game.  Was Fast Willie?

Conner is pretty good through the air. He graded lowly at PFF this year for receiving, but he's been considered fine at that phase of the game. He caught 35 of 41 targets this year, so that's not bad at all, considering some of those are likely to be on the QB. In his real full year of 2018, he had 55 receptions and one receiving TD. 

As for the other guys, I don't remember Fast Willie Parker, really. Vaguely. Wasn't too clued in then to his passing prowess. He had no more than 31 catches in his heyday.

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22 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 

Also, Pittsburgh likes all-around backs. Sermon only caught about twelve targets in either college or at Ohio St., I believe, so the likelihood of them taking him is diminished. It's not a foregone conclusion they won't, it's just that the profile doesn't seem to fit.

I know Bucky Brooks, who I think grades RB's better then any other position he grades, labeled him the best RB in screen game in the NFL. What he's basing that on I don't know but I did listen to a long interview with him and  Sermon a few weeks ago and he was going on about how much he think he has to show in the passing game, that it's strength of his, but I guess counter to that is  what's he supposed to say.

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Just now, menobrown said:

I know Bucky Brooks, who I think grades RB's better then any other position he grades, labeled him the best RB in screen game in the NFL. What he's basing that on I don't know but I did listen to a long interview with him and  Sermon a few weeks ago and he was going on about how much he think he has to show in the passing game, that it's strength of his, but I guess counter to that is  what's he supposed to say.

No, I agree with what you're saying about word-of-mouth. People watching tape of him and watching his pro day say he handled the pass catching duties rather easily and proficiently. I'm just going by target share in college, which was a 4.6%, or 21st percentile. His target share this year was greater. It was 8.4%. Still not high, but better. And target share can be a function of coaching or game plans rather than the back himself, I guess. I know it's a useful metric to look at, just not sure how correlated it is to the number of targets running backs jumping from college will see in the pros. 

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12 minutes ago, Shawnky said:

Oh yeah.  I'm assuming rd 3 or above.

 

Was Conner much of a receiver?  I honestly don't know because I've never drafted him.  I've never been a fan.  Before Bell, I don't recall them having much of a pass catching back.  Don't recall Mendenhall or Bettis being part of the passing game.  Was Fast Willie?

I think most of Mendenhall era and some of Willie Parker was when Arians was the OC and Arians did not use his RB's in the passing game a whole lot before David Johnson. I believe before Arians got hooked up with DJ that Mewelde Moore with 46 grabs, as third down complement to Parker that year, was the highest a RB had caught at least while he was OC.

So to your point, I think anyway, is the Steelers have not always used their RB heavily in the passing game. It's a little more then saying just Bell as DeAngelo got some good use and Conner as well but it certainly might be OC and scheme specific. The more consistent approach under Tomlin is more of a bell cow RB, at minimum something that would be confused as being a RBBC.

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