Yes I put a lot of people on my ignore list who don't know how to have a civil conversation instead of "I"m right, you're wrong" or just in general looking for an argument. I see no value in people like your who or need to make people endure the back and forth.
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RB Trey Sermon, Colts (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
woodstock
Footballguy
I was more than civil. Actually, anybody reading will find the civility dropped a notch or three with your first reply, just like with Andy in the QB thing. Please, go ahead. Ignore everyone you deem uncivil. You sound like you just don't like being wrong at all.
Tra la.
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Here is an example of civil. "I'm coming up with different combine and pro day numbers then you. Where are you getting your info from"?
That's not how you came at me and anyone with a brain can see that.
woodstock
Footballguy
All I said was "your site is wrong" and you wrote this. I didn't even put it on you. I simply said your site was. You responded with
"...if you bothered to look before assuming"
Nice touch. Very conducive to conversation. It does not point out that you had Morris running a 4.63 in your post, which is what I was correcting.
I've learned that when someone seems to consistently have a problem with a few different members of a board in short order, either that board is the trouble, or the person isn't necessarily holding themselves out entirely in a manner that's conducive to conversation. Often times, people don't even realize what they're typing because they're so concerned with being right, or so convinced they are, that they use phrases like the above, which read much differently than the person thinks.
I did bother to look. Your times weren't the official times.
And add to that that .02 of a time isn't going to drop them out of speed score range that I was talking about, and you've got really a red herring almost.
You don't like forties. That's fine. I like them when adjusted. Agree to disagree, I guess. But statistically, that will get you to select guys where if I'm competing with you, I celebrate.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Came in here to get my star and do a little more reading on Sermon (here). I usually put a lot of stock in RBs that coaches/GMs move up to get. I liked what I saw about him over the last month and was moving him up my board already before last week. His athletic testing was elite IMO and I'm not going to get into it beyond that. I'm not scared away by the other 5 RBs on the depth chart, including for 2021.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Generally speaking, I find it hard to swallow a methodology that projects a career heavily weighted on an exercise that lasts less than 10 seconds. Feels a lot more like correlation as opposed to causation. Let's talk about another 49ers RB that was drafted in the 3rd round that, like Sermon, was recovering from an ACL tear from the previous year... His combine results were: 217lbs, 4.58 40-time.
I think that guy did alright.
Dunno what you consider the authority on pro day results, but most Ohio state pro-day results I see show Sermon has having clocked 4.6/4.57 on his 40 times, and weighing in at 215lbs... Again, when we're at this level splitting hairs, the details seem almost irrelevant.
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massraider
Footballguy
I am out, especially at this ADP. If you miss out on Sermon and settle for Bateman, Marshall, I think you dodged a bullet.
If Trey Sermon grabs this backfield, and gets 20 touches, he'a an RB1, no doubt.
Why on earth would Kyle Shanahan want to do that? He has the most innovative running game concepts in the NFL. He added Trey Lance at QB, has Mostert, Deebo, and even Aiuyk to snag carries. Why would he put all those toys on a shelf, to feature Sermon, the LEAST likely of all these names to hit a home run? Think abut that for a sec.
If Lance is running an RPO, how long will defenses just sell out on the run, to force Lance to prove he can beat them with his arm? So those RPO, Sermon won't get the ball. They will force the RPO to the 'harder' option.
Long term, Wilson and Mostert are no threat, but they won't be here long term. You WISH they were. Who knows what young little pups the 49ers add to the backfield next year?
If you think he's Dalvin or Chubb, rock on. Talent like that finds a way. But man, doesn't seem like anyone is planting that flag. And if he's not a special talent, there are waaaay too many different ways I could imagine the carries being distributed.
I have 1.08, and if Sermon is there, I am shopping that pick hard.
No problem with the talent, I think path to consistent long term carries is a big projection.
If Trey Sermon grabs this backfield, and gets 20 touches, he'a an RB1, no doubt.
Why on earth would Kyle Shanahan want to do that? He has the most innovative running game concepts in the NFL. He added Trey Lance at QB, has Mostert, Deebo, and even Aiuyk to snag carries. Why would he put all those toys on a shelf, to feature Sermon, the LEAST likely of all these names to hit a home run? Think abut that for a sec.
If Lance is running an RPO, how long will defenses just sell out on the run, to force Lance to prove he can beat them with his arm? So those RPO, Sermon won't get the ball. They will force the RPO to the 'harder' option.
Long term, Wilson and Mostert are no threat, but they won't be here long term. You WISH they were. Who knows what young little pups the 49ers add to the backfield next year?
If you think he's Dalvin or Chubb, rock on. Talent like that finds a way. But man, doesn't seem like anyone is planting that flag. And if he's not a special talent, there are waaaay too many different ways I could imagine the carries being distributed.
I have 1.08, and if Sermon is there, I am shopping that pick hard.
No problem with the talent, I think path to consistent long term carries is a big projection.
joey
Footballguy
But, wait. Aren't we supposed to bet on talent over situation?
(I'm firmly on the fence about Sermon, so half messing
)
massraider
Footballguy
I don't bet on his talent over Bateman or Marshall. I don't dislike the player, it feels like we're trying to shoehorn Sermon into a tier I am not sure exists.But, wait. Aren't we supposed to bet on talent over situation?
(I'm firmly on the fence about Sermon, so half messing
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
When he starts beating them with his arm.
It's not like NDSU runs the option.But you your first point, he's not worth taking before those guys. I'm not worried about what he faces from the depth chart but I am about his head coach. 49er and Patriot backfields are to be avoided.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He does that a ton though. Once he picks a guy that guy's the bellcow. The only frustration we've had with Shanahan backs is he seems to change his underwear too often and a guy that was so productive one game is inexplicably swapped the next. Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jeffrey Wilson - he's turned absolutely mediocre talent into fantasy RB1/2's. Sermon's ADP bakes this risk in. If we knew he was getting 350 touches a year in SFO offense he's the 1.01 every day.
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree with the first few sentences, but not the bolded one. I don't think Shanahan changes his tune as much as it seems that every time one of the guys moves to the top of the depth chart, he gets hurt shortly thereafter and it's next man up. From McKinnon to Coleman to Mostert to Wilson to Hasty, none of these guys seems to be able to sustain a long stretch of games being healthy as the main guy. Perhaps Sermon will break that mold - we'll see.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Fair enough, I guess it's that he never goes back to the original guy that's my biggest frustration. Someone gets a hangnail and it's the Jeffrey Wilson show for the rest of the year (until Wilson has a sore tongue, then it's off to someone else). You kind of need to get all the pieces of the backfield and plug in whichever is the flavor of the moment.
Maybe the draft capital will work in Sermon's favor, maybe it won't. But depending on his price (he just went 18 in an IDP league) I'll see.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
In my one dynasty league I have Mostert, Sermon, and Mitchell so I might be in luck!
I get what you are saying about not just from the RB's but the RB's room only has Sermon and Mitchel under contract past this year.
zamboni
Footballguy
This is a very good point if you're thinking dynasty/keeper. Sure, Shanahan could always bring in a new crop of competitors if Wilson/Mostert, etc. aren't retained, but if Sermon takes the reins he could have a very good spot for the next few years.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You could totally be right, I guess I just don't feel like the fear of a bust there is worthy of not making the pick. Another thing to consider, even if you don't like him and don't get an offer OTC that you like, somebody in your league is going to warm up to him and give you something you like for him. He might have more future trade value than anyone else at that point in the draft.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I agree with this. At 1.08 or later the risk isn't zero but it isn't a bullet either. It is baked in as you say.
I think the thing a lot of people are missing is that the Niners have been ridiculously snake bit with injuries at RB over the last few years, and that impacts the rotation in a chaotic, unpredictable way. Trying to predict a rotation based on that pattern is a fool's game. Blowing it off as Shanahan being difficult to read is too simplistic as well.
They moved up to get him. That means a lot to me. Guess we'll find out soon how this plays out.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed. His ADP seems to be very reasonable if you can get him now and could be a high reward/low risk proposition. But if he shines in training camp, that price will obviously go up.
massraider
Footballguy
Great points in your post. I think my objections are really only like two spots. Bateman and Marshall are in a tier above.
I'm already probably labeled a DeVonta hater, don't wanna go too far here, heh heh.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah they're right there. I've seen people taking Carter before Sermon in redraft this past week. There is a big drop off in that area and I guess it just depends on where those sweet spots are for you (or me or whoever) and any potential trade partners. It is sure to vary from league to league. I think a lot of people will be willing to move up for him though.
I disagree with the bolded at least for last year. Mostert was the guy every game he was healthy to start. Going into every game the obvious guy got the touches (unless he got hurt mid game). There weren't really any out of the blue big games but a lot of that could be because of the injury carousel.......and Sermon fits right into that carousel.
The Captain
Footballguy
I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right?
He has quite a few whiffs, and some bigger I think, than Butler... but he also has a good list of hits as well as some nice value pulls from deeper in the drafts. What's great is he has a pretty consistent process year to year and breaks down the skill categories in such a way that you can pretty easily see why he thinks any given player is good/bad. So you can take that and just look at the tape to see if you agree on a point by point basis and go from there.
His narrative on Sermon is basically that he's a do everything back with the on-field IQ, short area quicks, build, and efficient movement that adds up to a package that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Is that what you/we see in the tape too...
?It'd be interesting to try and find a good comp and watch their pre-draft highlights to see how they compare... whether they are equally uninspiring. Arian Foster maybe? Bell (though he was quite a bit bigger)?
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
The Butler one still hurts... this site single handly raised that kids ADP to the heavens a couple of yrs ago.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Trey Sermon came in 5th with a C- and projected points per game of 11.0 over three years in Dynasty Nerds' Zach David's Z-Score for running backs. It went Harris, Williams, Etienne, Stevenson, and then Sermon.
Linky right here: https://www.dynastynerds.com/predicting-rookie-rb-success-post-nfl-draft-2021-fantasy-football/
Linky right here: https://www.dynastynerds.com/predicting-rookie-rb-success-post-nfl-draft-2021-fantasy-football/
foxco
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I read the writeups and felt like he as a real bias in his comments for Stevenson vs Sermon.
On Stevenson he points out that Michel's 5th year is not picked up and projects possible Harris/Stevenson RB duo in 2022. But on Sermon he never mentions that Mostert and Wilson are on last year of their deals but just openly asks if SF will always be a RBBC, as if NE has not been? I just think if we are looking at their potential long term situations that Sermons is clearly better, to say nothing of short term and talent.
Waldman had him as his #1 RB in this draft...
To note: he revealed it on a recent podcast
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rockaction
Footballguy
Sorry I didn't catch that.
Waldman's never steered me wrong in RB rankings, really the RB rankings are his baby / thing.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, love me some Sermon. Think he'll do just fine in the NFL, provided he doesn't get hurt like every other 49er back, or so it seems.
People keep group thinking and mentioning that Key'Shawn Vaughn as their reason 'why not' Sermon.
I wonder why we're not talking about Alvin Kamara as another 3rd round example to compare to.
Edit: obviously extremes in either direction
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rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, they did do a draft capital breakdown of the last ten years with the overall pick in one article I read. Sermon's company wasn't exactly stellar in terms of production. But yes, he could be another example of a guy overcoming his draft capital. The question becomes: How much do you want to bet on it and what value are you giving up with the pick you take him with?
I spent 2.01 on him, with Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman on the board.
I wouldn't go any earlier and I typically wouldn't draft a 3rd round back in this scenario over those two guys but my faith in Matt Waldman is high and it's the only reason I pulled the trigger in this case.
rockaction
Footballguy
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I love Waldman's effort and I buy the guide almost every year, but, uhh, he and I were both very wrong on Ameer Abdullah. Just to provide a counter example.
I traded Jacobs, Fitzpatrich/Heinicke for 1.11 (Sermon) and 4.11.
I have Mostert and figured getting Sermon gives me the likely lead guy for the foreseeable future in SF and I have never really been a Jacobs guy (I inherited the orphan with Jacobs already on it). I had been trying to move him since January with no luck.
I am happy with this move.
I have Mostert and figured getting Sermon gives me the likely lead guy for the foreseeable future in SF and I have never really been a Jacobs guy (I inherited the orphan with Jacobs already on it). I had been trying to move him since January with no luck.
I am happy with this move.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Guys that look like the next big thing typically don't last until the 3rd round. I think Sermon will be a good NFL back because he's the guy that turns a 3yd run into a 5yd gain. Not flashy and isn't going to jump out at you on film, but it will keep him on the field and keep drives alive. His big runs are not going to come from outrunning the D, but making the safety miss at the 2nd level.
My concerns w/ him are injury-related. I think he looked more explosive at Oklahoma prior to the ACL tear... may explain why he started off slow after transferring to OSU.
