Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Trey Sermon, Colts (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Good info but the only thing I would add is that they never had a bell cow type of back. If the pieces are there for a committee because nobody is good enough to be the guy this is a likely outcome. SF traded up to get a guy they think can be the guy. Time will tell if that is true.Totally agree that last year played out this way... but does an injury free season equate to bellcow usage or more of a 60/40 split kind of thing (which is kind of what the split looked like when everyone was healthy)? Even assuming he takes over as the most heavily used member of the backfield, it's hard to see him being a touch monster like guys in the top tiers. Other than Hyde in 2017, who got 240 carries (59 rec's), no RB has seen more than 153 carries during Shanahan's tenure in SF.
That said... some San Fran RB stats under Shanahan.
Rushes by RB/total team attempts (team rush rank)
*Average of 385 RB rushes/yr under Shanahan.
- 2020: 395/437 (14th)
- 2019: 424/498 (2nd)
- 2018: 364/423 (11th)
- 2017: 358/408 (22nd)
Targets to RB's/% team overall targets under Shanahan:
*Average of 132 RB targets/yr under Shanahan.
- 2020: 144 (24%)
- 2019: 111 (21%)
- 2018: 107 (21%)
- 2017: 166 (28%)
So, just for's projection scenarios using the avg stats of rookies drafted in the 2nd rd from 2007-2020 where: ypc = 4.3, run TD% = 0.031, catch % = 72 (TS career catch %), ypr = 8.2, catch TD% = 0.03
- Low (40/40/20 RBBC)
154/662/5 run 37/52/303/1 receiving
[*]Mid (60/40)
231/993/7 run 55/76/451/1.7 receiving
[*]High (70/30)
270/1161/8 run 66/92/543/2 receiving
This is just a sanity check based on historical RB performances from 2nd rd RB's; it's what a full year of his production could look like to help baseline against other players, not a 2021 projection.
I can see TS having a bit higher ypc and TD rate, but I'm kind of thinking the Mid level might be close to his ceiling based on the opportunity. To hit the Mid level you have to assume: 1) he takes the lead role, 2) he matches the most ever carries Shanahan has given a back in SF, 3) his target share matches his rushing share. That's a lot.
I still like him... and I still don't know where to take him, hah.
(ps - Hyde's 2017 stats: 240/938/8 run 59/88/350/0 receiving)
Last edited by a moderator:
Shawnky
Footballguy
There’s no way of knowing this at this point. The top 3 backs were drafted in spots before Portia and Sermon was only drafted a round after. Not sure the # of spots and don’t really care looking it up. But yes, that Chiefs game was amazing.ffmail4me said:
Last edited by a moderator:
tombonneau
Footballguy
I did exactly this. Already took Sermon at 1.10 in one league and staring at him 1.12 in 14 team league but went Lance. Our league is 1qb but qb friendly and I think he has supreme upside.
Like you I had good qb (Dak, Rodgers) and traded Dak while OTC in draft for RB. Otherwise would have prob have taken Semon again. But I’m believer in Lance and want to root for him.
Sermon ended up going 1.14.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
And this is the great dream of the guy who drafts every 49ers RB.....Gally said:
Last edited by a moderator:
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Already moving up the depth chart.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I've got both in one dynasty league, along with Mostert. Why do you think Mitchell? I kind of assumed they would all just be bumped up a spot. I don't think "Gallman is the #2" holds up for too long and think it's more so just because the others are rookies and it's still very early.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, it doesn't sound stupid. I remember half-kidding that the Jets would keep a watchful eye on the SF backfield. With Wilson out, the team will maybe carry five RBs (Mostert, Gallman, Sermon, Mitchell, Juszczyk) if they so choose. (And I think they just might. They were hurt enough last year to learn that lesson.)
Hasty they'll likely have to find something to do with if they go with Gallman over him.
Last edited by a moderator:
Yes I knew you'd know what I meant, the SF to Jets pipeline is real. The pickups by Jets of SF discards has been minimal so far but I expect them to add a few more via waivers or trade and with the reviews Mitchell's been getting super early I was for sure thinking it's possible the Jets got their hands on Mostert or Wilson-the two RB's the Jet's staff are familiar with.
And not making a joke at all but chances of all 4 of those RB's being healthy after camp seems low to me which should only help them all make the team.
rockaction
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
got sniped on wr's. took sermon at 1.08
:sehorn:
:sehorn:
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If Sermon ran with better pad level had better footwork and lateral agility caught the ball more consistently better contact balance and vision then maybe we could compare him to Portis.
I do think Sermon does most of those things well by the way just not as well as Portis in his prime.
joey
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And now you get to cheer for a 49er! I feel like this is a healing between the fan bases. A coming together for a mutual cause.
Jokes aside, I like the kid & think he’s immediately the best RB on the roster. He’s also a great fit for the Shanny system. I tried to trade into 1.11 to get him & failed.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
most fights i ever saw, at a raider game, was 9ers/raiders.And now you get to cheer for a 49er! I feel like this is a healing between the fan bases. A coming together for a mutual cause.
Jokes aside, I like the kid & think he’s immediately the best RB on the roster. He’s also a great fit for the Shanny system. I tried to trade into 1.11 to get him & failed.
fantasy is funny. it does make you cheer for people, that you ordinarily can't stand.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
By comparison, one of the best times I’ve ever had in my life was in the Black Hole at a Raider’s Game. I didn’t wear any Niners gear, and was asked why I wasn’t wearing Raiders stuff a few times. To one of them I sheepishly said “cuz I’m a niners fan” and the response I got was “yeah, smart not to wear your Niners stuff” and dude bought me a beer for cheering for his team.
I had a blast. That’s an insane experience.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
no no...i had a blast. all just part of the entertainment. raider games are a lot of fun. i'm gonna miss that dump. due to the teams performance on the field, the last 20 or so years, the parking lot was often the best part of the game.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh the tailgating was amazing. I ate so well that day. I was also hammered loooong before I got in, which saved a ton of $ on $14 Coors.
honestly I barely remember taking BART home back to Hayward.
I’m really bummed that Oakland is losing all of its sports teams in my lifetime. I never thought I’d see the day. No doubt the Raiders new stadium is awesome, but it’d be more awesome at Jack London Square.
matuski
Footballguy
I mean he has to earn time against the likes of Mostert and Gallman... not exactly superstar competition.
Shawnky
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same. Mostert is fast but fragile. Sermon’s path to success doesn’t have a kot of impediments, and he’s built for the gig. His history shows he’s a great fit for Shanahan’s system, so it seems almost willfully ignorant for someone to come into a topic where all offseason news has been positive with some half cocked negative statement. Mostert hasn’t been great in short yardage,& Sermon is a great fit for that as well.
I agree - imma trust the coach who’s known for success in the run game with the RB he hand picked for that role.
some people simply like to be contrary for the sake of being contrary. Funny how those types never say a single thing to support their contrary opinions.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Even if it’s RBBC, given Shanahan‘s track record you ought to do well with at least one of those guys.I trust throwing lots of darts.
signed,
Mostert/Sermon/Wilson owner
joey
Footballguy
Short rosters for that FFPC team where I own all 3 and I will say that I wasn’t upset at all when I heard that Wilson might miss the first X games, so I can move him to an IR slot for a bit and not waste 3 slots on SF RBs.
I looked back through Shanahan's history going back to his first gig as offensive coordinator in 2008. In that entire span, he's had a 300 carry rusher once (Alfred Morris in 2012). More recently, he's leaned harder into a RBBC. His first year with the 49ers is the only season a RB has had over 200 carries - in 2018, 2019, and 2020, the leading rusher has had 153, 137, and 123 carries, respectively. So, starting in 2017, the leader in carries has looked like this:
2017: 240
2018: 153
2019: 137 (tied - Coleman & Mosters both had 137)
2020: 123
There are external factors, such as injuries, of course, but this situation is beginning to remind me a lot of the Patriots. The Patriots believe deeply in the running game and so owners have almost always overdrafted their running backs in the hope that someone takes over and becomes a 1st or 2nd round value that they drafted in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th. However, this has rarely ever worked out. The 49ers are similar. Shanahan is an excellent offensive mind and will almost certainly produce a good running game, but that team (or real NFL) success doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy success for an individual player. The 49ers have Mostert, Wilson, Sermon, Gallman, Hasty, and Mitchell. They re-signed Wilson. He is hurt but will be back this season (he had meniscus surgery at the end of May and has a 4-6 month timeline). Gallman was actually quite good last year (4.6 YPC behind a poor line) and they drafted Mitchell as well as Sermon. Of course, there's also the question of how much Lance plays and the fact that he's such a good runner and may take some goal-line opportunities.
I think the 49ers will have an excellent running game this season but they have a lot of depth and it's highly unlikely that anyone runs away with the job. I don't know that either of Mostert or Sermon will be great values, even with an injury to the other.
My projection for Sermon:
122 carries, 549 yards, 4 touchdowns, 25 targets, 18 receptions, 0 touchdowns
2017: 240
2018: 153
2019: 137 (tied - Coleman & Mosters both had 137)
2020: 123
There are external factors, such as injuries, of course, but this situation is beginning to remind me a lot of the Patriots. The Patriots believe deeply in the running game and so owners have almost always overdrafted their running backs in the hope that someone takes over and becomes a 1st or 2nd round value that they drafted in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th. However, this has rarely ever worked out. The 49ers are similar. Shanahan is an excellent offensive mind and will almost certainly produce a good running game, but that team (or real NFL) success doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy success for an individual player. The 49ers have Mostert, Wilson, Sermon, Gallman, Hasty, and Mitchell. They re-signed Wilson. He is hurt but will be back this season (he had meniscus surgery at the end of May and has a 4-6 month timeline). Gallman was actually quite good last year (4.6 YPC behind a poor line) and they drafted Mitchell as well as Sermon. Of course, there's also the question of how much Lance plays and the fact that he's such a good runner and may take some goal-line opportunities.
I think the 49ers will have an excellent running game this season but they have a lot of depth and it's highly unlikely that anyone runs away with the job. I don't know that either of Mostert or Sermon will be great values, even with an injury to the other.
My projection for Sermon:
122 carries, 549 yards, 4 touchdowns, 25 targets, 18 receptions, 0 touchdowns
I don't think Shanny has had a RB the last few years he trusted in the lead role. Last year I think he showed that Mostert was the guy. Every game he was healthy he got the bulk of the carries (unless he got reinjured in game) then Coleman until he got hurt and same with McKinnon and Wilson. Going into each week it was clear who the lead back was. I think that will be the way he will operate this year. Not sure who will start the season as the lead guy but I think Sermon takes over by the end of the season.
I get that narrative but I'd be surprised. Mostert's season high for carries was 17. I think Shanahan wants to use multiple backs and be able to show defenses different looks/styles (speed with Mostert, power/grinder with Sermon etc) and has the depth to do it. This is a good team that is almost certainly playing with an eye towards the postseason and I think Shanahan will also prioritize keeping his backs fresh/healthy, especially in a 17 game regular season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Correct on all points.
Mostert was a fantasy monster on only a few carries so long as he hits that 80 yard TD, and in their 1 cut & go system off play action, those opportunities abound.
Sermon is also adept at that running style, and IMO he’ll he lead dog with Mostert doing his thing. Mostert isn’t a young man, and I project Sermon’s workload closer to 200 touches including at the stripe where they struggled to punch it in many times last year.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's a bug, not a feature. I will say that Gally is right to a degree about the SF backs, and TS Garp is right to a degree about the SF backs. There was, last year, a clear lead in Mostert. Then he got hurt and others filled in.
The years before that, though, it was certainly muddled. Coleman was taking starter snaps in 2019 as late as the Minnesota playoff game until he got hurt. Then Mostert had that huge day against Green Bay. I've looked at this many, many times (before I acquired Mostert in dynasty last year. I've since moved on.) and it's a lot more confusing in years prior. Then you have Atlanta, with Freeman and Coleman splitting a lot of time while Freeman was the worthwhile back to own in fantasy.
In short, there is a lot to like about the backfield for fantasy, but expectations should be tempered a bit by recent history.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, but to Gally’s point, they’ve had a hodge podge of middling RBs. The Coleman that came to SF wasn’t the same that Shanny had in ATL.
IMO, Shanny is a hot hand guy more than a RBBC guy. Mostert was the man, but others came on to give him a breather. Then Mostert got hurt, next man up. Lather, rinse, repeat all the way to the rookie at one point.
Most of the backs Shanny’s had in SF have been incomplete. He hasn’t had anyone with the build/speed/power as Sermon, from what I've seen of his college play.
There’s a legitimate opportunity for Sermon to take a 60-70% touch share in this backfield with Mostert getting work in. I don’t see another back well suited to short yardage or GL work on the roster. Mostert’s not effective in that role at all, and honestly I wouldn’t want them to try it again because he’s a little fragile. He’s best used in the zone blocking scheme where he hits the hole untouched & gets loose for 10-80 yards.
sermon is a banger, and I’m excited to see what he can do. I think he’s a 180-200 touch guy this year.
I’ve been wrong before but if he’s there anywhere past the 7th in redraft I’m likely gonna take a flier on him as a 3rd or 4th RB.
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
From tonight’s FBG email.
”SF - Trey Sermon to make an impact
Source: ESPN.com - Nick Wagoner
San Francisco 49ers RB Trey Sermon 'looks poised to make an impact as a rookie' after making a strong first impression, especially as a receiver out of the backfield, during OTAs and minicamp, according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.
[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]
Raheem Mostert is excellent in the zone running game and a threat to take it to the house on any play, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and the 49ers at least have to have to split the work in the backfield, if not use him as the change of pace with Sermon coming on. Sermon should be the first 49ers running back drafted and he has league winner potential if Mostert breaks down.”
”SF - Trey Sermon to make an impact
Source: ESPN.com - Nick Wagoner
San Francisco 49ers RB Trey Sermon 'looks poised to make an impact as a rookie' after making a strong first impression, especially as a receiver out of the backfield, during OTAs and minicamp, according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.
[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]
Raheem Mostert is excellent in the zone running game and a threat to take it to the house on any play, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and the 49ers at least have to have to split the work in the backfield, if not use him as the change of pace with Sermon coming on. Sermon should be the first 49ers running back drafted and he has league winner potential if Mostert breaks down.”
dipandglide
Footballguy
Crocker was saying Sermon's pass protection is good and should keep him on the field for passing downs (49ers Locked On pod). I like his floor/ceiling combo and will be picking him up everywhere I can in redraft if his cost is modest. I got him on a lot of my dynasty teams in the late 1st, early 2nd.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I tried hard to trade up again to the 1.12 spot to land him after I’d traded to 1.08 for Pitts. Unfortunately 1.12 was a fellow Niners fan, making such a move impossible.
I believe Sermon is the most complete back Shanny has had, and Mostert is 29, so his long-term prospects are clouded, to say the least.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
My league is the same - big 3 backs went within the top 6 and I had to choose between Waddle and Sermon - chose Waddle (consider myself pretty deep at WR) - I just went BPA and upside versus situation. Time will tell. Good luck!
Our situation and league sound similar. I just took him at 1.08 if that makes you feel any better. The 1.05 went Waddle allowing the guy with the 6 & 7 to grab Williams. I'm pretty sure he wanted to walk away with 1RB, 1WR, so I feel like I may have gotten lucky. I have the 1.12 too, but I don't see any way he would've made it there. The day of him going at the end of the first or anywhere in the second seem long gone in 1 QB PPR.
