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RB Trey Sermon, Colts (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
I started trying to trade up to get Sermon at 1.06. I was offering Jacobs plus for the pick and I couldn't get anything done until 1.11 and finally had the offer accepted and got Sermon there. I was going down the list each pick as long as Sermon was available and finally got a taker.
All that to say it is never a bad idea to grab the guy you want when you have the chance in a rookie draft. My only caveat to that is that you take the guy you think is the best player regardless of position in rookie drafts. Don't take Sermon over WR's if you think the WR's are better. The point of a rookie draft is to hit on as many picks as possible. The best way to do that is take the player you think is the best at the time you pick. Don't force positions for a lesser player. For me, I think Sermon is the #2 RB (barely over Williams) behind Harris in this draft.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Jacobs+ for Sermon? That is conviction!Gally said:
Jacobs plus for pick 1.06 because I thought it would take that to get pick 1.06. I ended up getting 1.11 and 4.11 for Jacobs and took Sermon at pick 1.11 and Rountree at 4.11
ETA: I also already had Mostert so Sermon ties up that backfield.
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Skipdog77
Footballguy
I'm leaning the same way in my 1QB PPR. Assuming Harris, Chase, Pitts, Etienne, and Williams will go 1-5 .
Took over a team last season. Feel set at WR for now (Hopkins, Golladay, Aiyuk, Higgins, Ruggs, C. Davis) and Smith and Waddle don't thrill me. Was thinking potentially Lawrence as my QBs right now are Stafford and Tua, and the thought of having a potential 'set it and forget it' guy at the position for the next decade is intriguing. But RBs are always hot commodities in this league, and right now I'm sitting with JT and Mike Davis as my two top options, so not sure I can pass him up. Can start either 1 or 2 RBs a week, and then either 3 or 2 WRs depending on the RBs.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Do you think you actually got better at RB here?
Seems more like a wash to me unless you think Jacobs opportunity is reallly going to dry up because of them adding Drake means a big haircut for his opportunity which I suppose is possible.
This seems like more of a lateral move to me where you get a bit younger but there is also risk as Sermon is unproven.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
From a macro level I think you will be more successful drafting players who were selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft than you will be drafting players selected in the 3rd round ahead of them.
But you know your league and the positional scarcity maybe that would be the right decision for you.
I do think I got better. I think Sermon has a chance to be a top 10 RB and I think Jacobs will not be there anymore.
Plus I hate the Raiders
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You might be right. I have been a critic of Jacobs being a 1st round pick from the beginning. I think his talent level is similar to David Montgomery who was selected in the 3rd round similar to where Sermon was selected.
I am even less of a fan of Drake though, so I am thinking Jacobs holds him off for the most part, however the niche opportunity for Jacobs as a receiver does seem more evident in the Raiders move to add Drake, and perhaps Drake gets more of those opportunities than Jacobs does which caps what Jacobs is capable of for fantasy.
Sermon has Mostert to contend with for opportunities as well though, so I am seeing some form of time share with both teams.
The Raiders had a very good offensive line last year but they blew most of that up in the offseason so that can't be counted on as a plus anymore I dont think.
dipandglide
Footballguy
I'm team buy Jacobs. He's young, talented, and has a solid floor. He's the same age as Najee, has produced decent #'s, and is being given away.
jtd13
Footballguy
I'll take the other side. Give me Sermon over Jacobs. I wasn't a fan of him coming in except for his draft capital, and he hasn't done much to change my mind besides get a big workload (likely due to draft capital) and do just OK with it. Now the raiders have basically confirmed he's locked into that 2 down role. That's fine for fantasy if you're Nick Chubb and have the browns line, but I don't think he's on Chubb's level, and his line is likely a big step down too.
I think it's close with Sermon, and I wouldn't call a late 1st for Jacobs giving him away. Anything less than that and I'll keep him, but I don't see a lot of reason to be excited about Jacobs based on what he's done so far.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I'm a sucker for explosive and breakaway runs, especially breakaway runs, and you just will not get those with Jacobs. Now, Sermon isn't going to outrun guys chasing him, but his long speed is as good as, if not better, than Jacobs, who wouldn't even test for his forty time. That's just what I see on film.
I think Sermon is a better back but for possible durability issues. Was it a bold move to swap Sermon for Jacobs? Yes. Will it be the right call? We'll see, but I have this nagging feeling that Gally was correct to make that decision (I play in his league and was also trying to acquire Sermon at the same time as he was, but had already used my two first rounders in that league and didn't have quite enough to get a deal done. Actually, I fell asleep during a slow draft with an offer on the table for a next year's first, a receiver, and a second round pick to a guy at the 1.10 who then picked when he didn't hear back from me in counter-negotiations, but that's a long story and I'm sort of glad it didn't work out as of now...)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
You make an interesting point but Jacobs is one year older than Sermon as he turned 23 in February and Sermon turned 22 in January.
I don't want RB who are not catching the ball but I do see your point that Jacobs might be a buy low
HW_53
Footballguy
I don't have a lot of background on Sermon other than I feel he looks to be a solid std. format back. Jacobs is a special talent and a redzone lock. He could/should develop his route running and hands to be a better all around back, but the Raiders line did him no favors last year. I'd buy where possible even with Drake there. No dismay to Sermon, but, as of now he is an unknown.
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starks
Footballguy
Your league set up is different, we have to start 2 RB (Mixson, Gibson) would love to start 3 of my WR (AJ Brown, Mike Thomas, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, OBJ). I get the talk about draft pedigree but it's so rare to have RBs drafted in first round (unless you are Jax wtf) and there is such a steep drop after Sermon. I am not high on the top tier of WR past Chase, I would rather grab a WR in the 2nd and/or 3rd. Was thinking about Lawrence but I took Burrow last year.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I had the same question. I see him as a volume guy but not a special talent. Since I had him last year I watched a lot of games and he never jumped out as special to me. He was good but not special.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
5th round ADP? Wow, didn't realize it has risen that much.
In looking at this projection again, I'd probably bump it up to 150 carries, 670 yards and 5 td's. With that said, I'm still trying to envision the scenario where Sermon pays off his current ADP which continues to rise. I think Shanahan wants the running game to feature a speed element, which they have with Mostert. Mitchell will likely be used exclusively as a kick returner to start the season but he's a burner and if Mostert goes down (not unlikely), I think you'll see Mitchell (also a capable receiver) start to pick up some of those carries. Beyond that, Deebo And Aiyuk will likely steal 2-4 rushing TD's and then you have Lance, who is not only a good runner but also a very physical one in the Josh Allen/Cam Newton mold who will almost certainly steal goal line TD's. If Jimmy G somehow keeps the job all year, that would certainly help Sermon's case but that doesn't seem likely. I suppose it's possible that Mostert gets hurt and Shanahan turns over 80% of the running game to Sermon but that would be a surprise.
This isn't a judgment on Sermon's talent; it just seems that between the 49ers depth and the fact that you have Lance/Deebo/Aiyuk taking rushing TD's, I'm not sure there's a significant fantasy friendly role for a power runner here, even one as promising as Sermon.
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Looking at the RB pipeline, it looks like Chubb is the only truly threatening 2022 free agent (Phillip Lindsay is also interesting) and there are maybe 2-3 rookies that seem to profile as fantasy blue chips. I just don’t see San Francisco drafting an RB higher than 88 (Sermon’s pick) or throwing a big contract at Chubb. They’ve had too much success wringing value out of castoffs.
All of which is to say that unless you’re worried about a 49er running back spending spree or Mostert returning for his age 30 season, I see Trey Sermon (with a very cheap Eli Mitchell hedge if you like) going into 2022 as a VERY solid bet to have a higher market value in dynasty. You know how these things go: if Sermon has strong games toward the end of the year (they have Bengals, Falcons, Titans, Texans, Rams in their final 5 weeks), recency bias will do the rest.
In terms of redraft, listen to the JJ Zachariason podcasts this week about breakout RBs. Suuuuuuper interesting findings about higher-ADP running backs in ambiguous backfields.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-late-round-podcast/id1224965828?i=1000528632933
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-late-round-podcast/id1224965828?i=1000529069324
Also, hi everybody! This is my first post.
All of which is to say that unless you’re worried about a 49er running back spending spree or Mostert returning for his age 30 season, I see Trey Sermon (with a very cheap Eli Mitchell hedge if you like) going into 2022 as a VERY solid bet to have a higher market value in dynasty. You know how these things go: if Sermon has strong games toward the end of the year (they have Bengals, Falcons, Titans, Texans, Rams in their final 5 weeks), recency bias will do the rest.
In terms of redraft, listen to the JJ Zachariason podcasts this week about breakout RBs. Suuuuuuper interesting findings about higher-ADP running backs in ambiguous backfields.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-late-round-podcast/id1224965828?i=1000528632933
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-late-round-podcast/id1224965828?i=1000529069324
Also, hi everybody! This is my first post.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Welcoming aboard.
There’s a detailed breakdown of JJZ’s Ambiguous RB1 Theory on NumberFire. I’d recommend reading it to understand the data bc apparently the podcast wasn’t very clear. I’ve seen people misconstruing it all week on a bunch of different platforms.
Cliffnotes: when two RBs from the same team are going outside where we expect to see RB1s (e.g., Rnds 1-4), and excluding late round picks - beyond round 9 - then we have an ambiguous backfield. So when we have two RBs from the same team being drafted Rounds 5-9, does the historical data give us any clues on which one to take?
The criteria being looked at is the hit rate of who will exceed their expected FF production (based on the historical production of each ADP position) by over 100 points; that’s a breakout season. What the data shows is It’s far more likely to happen for the RB1 than the RB2. This sort of aligns with the “wisdom of crowds” theory; IOW, we as a community are actually pretty good at identifying who is going to be the RB1. Barring injury, these silly preseason projections which show near identical production rarely happen. What happens is the RB1 sees the volume and the RB2 becomes a roster clogger. They’re not completely worthless, you can spot start them st the Flex in good matchups/situations. But they’re not often league winners (top 24) and/or ascending at YE when want our FF teams to be peaking.
BTW, the focus here is on ambiguous backfields. Not handcuffs going in the 9th/10th like Dillon, Pollard, Mattison. That’s a losing strategy from a hit rate viewpoint, bc it depends on an injury to a bell cow RB happening. With ambiguous backfields, a guy in a timeshare ends up with a 60/40 split or a crucial role that leads to FF production (GL carries, 3rd down pass catching) in addition to significant volume in neutral situations. We’re also NOT considering RB1s being drafted alone (without a teammate) in the RB DEAD ZONE (rounds late 4th-7th, historically low hit rate.) The Myles Gaskins and Michael Carter”s of the redraft world who wreck your team.
Sermon/Mostert is one of five ambiguous backfields right now. Others I’ve identified are Etienne/Robinson, Edmonds/Connor, Fournette/Jones, J.Williams/Gordon. You could shoehorn a few others in but for the dataset JJ used in this study those best fit the criteria.
In the first four I mention I like Mostert, ETN, Edmonds and Fournette. Not surprisingly each of those are the better pass catcher. I’m a little confused what to do with the Broncos situation. I think the rookie is the better back but Gordon is a very good receiver. With their defense I could see them being in enough neutral situations (within one score either way) I think both could average double digits t touches. Regardless, Im getting all the shares I can of JW this year. Love the situation and they’re going to favor the guy they moved up to take.
Anyway, read the study yourself and draw your own conclusions.
Besides Sermon being the RB2 by ADP, you have Wilson coming back in the second half. Most importantly from a risk standpoint, I can’t trust 49ers backs. Not bc of the insane injury rates (lol sorry SF fans but last year was bonkers) but bc Shanny hasn’t had a 200 attempt RB since Hyde in 2014. Like Sermon’s tape but I think I’m passing in redraft.
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Tanner9919
Footballguy
this ^
Niners under Shanahan have not had a 200 carry RB in a long time. that's not going to change now simply because Sermon is there.
This is the timeshare of timeshares. It will be more frustrating than the NE RB situation.Stay away, in other words.
But draft B. Aiyuk because he's ready to be another Julio Jones in this offense.
Niners under Shanahan have not had a 200 carry RB in a long time. that's not going to change now simply because Sermon is there.
This is the timeshare of timeshares. It will be more frustrating than the NE RB situation.Stay away, in other words.
But draft B. Aiyuk because he's ready to be another Julio Jones in this offense.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
People like Deebo bc he’s the big bodied version of what Aiyuk did when he was having his annual soft tissue problem (6 tears running.) They think they’re getting similsr production two rounds later when in reality their Adot (or tape for that matter) is not even in the same zip code. Deebo’s ADP is 14 above his ranking spot (bc value) while Brandon is within 2 spots of his ranking. But you invest the draft capital in the guy going in the 5th bc he is more talented than the guy going in the 7th.
(there’s also a study on rookie QB’s supporting more than one league winner but that’s another conversation)
Mostert is scary fast, one plant then go is all RB’s need to excel in SF’s excellent scheme. Sermon is a good player but if I’m buying that backfield it’ll be the RB who can house it from anywhere on the field.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think I am following JJ's line of reasoning here.
However what stood out the most to me from his article was this
Running Back Type Total Breakouts Rate
Team RB1 106 10 9.43%
Team RB2 or Worse 518 34 6.56%
Now there were 5 times as many team RB 2 or worse in the sample than team RB 1 being selected, so that is why the breakout rate is higher for those. But there were 3 times as many breakouts from the team RB 2 or worse over the time frame of the sample.
So I'm not sure about you but I sure care about those 34 break out seasons and I want to find as many of these players as I can.
I think the margin of success for the team RB 1 wasn't enough for me to ignore the team RB 2 or worse which sort of seems to be what JJ is focusing on or suggesting.
I don't just say this in reaction to the study but from experience and direct application. The team RB 2 or worse is always cheaper than the team RB 1 is and as such not that big of a loss when they don't pan out (and a lot of them won't pan out) compared to a higher investment in the RB 1 from a ambiguous backfield.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Keep going to where he narrows it to RB2s & RB1s being drafted before pick 108. Finding those 34 (31 in the later rounds) is 1 in 20 proposition.
To help with this problem, instead of looking at Pick 60 and beyond, let's narrow our approach and look at single-digit round picks, or running backs selected between Picks 61 and 108. That represents the start of Round 6 and the end of Round 9 in a 12-team league.
Running Back TypeTotalBreakoutsRate
Team RB1 81 8 9.88%
Team RB2 or Worse 62 3 4.84%
Aha!
Since we know 34 of the 518 team RB2s (or worse) have broken out since 2011, then we also now know that the majority of those breakouts are happening in the double-digit rounds -- just 3 of the 62 team RB2s (or worse) drafted in Rounds 6 through 9 have given us a breakout season over the last decade. That means 31 of the 456 RB2s (or worse) that have been selected in the double-digit rounds have provided a breakout season. That's a 4.8% rate versus a 6.8% rate.
This isn’t a fail safe strategy, we’re just looking for edges. You might be so amazing at finding 31 out 456 that strategy works for you, but I’m gonna focus on finding the 10/106 or 8/81 bc the data is telling me I’ll have a higher chance at hitting a league winner.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yes by 2% but you will need to invest a much higher pick than a guy you are taking in the double digit rounds.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Brother
it is not 2%.
De ambiguous backfield theory:
Draft the RB1, higher hit rate
Draft the RB2, lower hit rate
Remember, the data set is round 6 through 9. We are only discussing ambiguous backfields, where 2 RBs are being selected within that narrow range. There are not less than five examples of those situations in current ADP.
The data is telling you to draft the RB1. The hit rate is nearly 1 in 10 (8/81, 10/106.) If you persist in drafting the RB2 the hit rate is more than 1 in 20 (3/62.) Or if you go into deeper rounds 1 in 15 (31/456.)
There are exceptions, it’s not fool proof. It gives you an edge. No one is good at picking specific Players. We think we are, the reality is we are not. So follow principles and develop strategies which will lead you to a higher probability of success.
it is not 2%.
De ambiguous backfield theory:
Draft the RB1, higher hit rate
Draft the RB2, lower hit rate
Remember, the data set is round 6 through 9. We are only discussing ambiguous backfields, where 2 RBs are being selected within that narrow range. There are not less than five examples of those situations in current ADP.
The data is telling you to draft the RB1. The hit rate is nearly 1 in 10 (8/81, 10/106.) If you persist in drafting the RB2 the hit rate is more than 1 in 20 (3/62.) Or if you go into deeper rounds 1 in 15 (31/456.)
There are exceptions, it’s not fool proof. It gives you an edge. No one is good at picking specific Players. We think we are, the reality is we are not. So follow principles and develop strategies which will lead you to a higher probability of success.
Did JJ indicate when his ADP data was from? I listened to his podcast regarding this but I don't think he indicated.
Ambiguous backfields in June / July from an ADP perspective are much different from Ambiguous backfields in late August.
This is a situation that JJ indicated he was watching (San Fran) in the podcast and stated there that he had Sermon as the back to draft.
1. Interesting aspect of the Ambiguous backfield theory is RB1 vs RB2 is defined by ADP, so if Sermon lands above Mostert in late August after a few more weeks of camp drumbeat, he’s the RB1. The idea is the market actually guesses right, but I imagine the historical ADP data he used pulls from Augusts past rather than July. Just something to keep an eye on!
2. Agree it could remain a timeshare! But since Eli Mitchell is borderline free right now, you can own 100% of the 2022 SF backs more easily now than probably ever again. Also, owning Sermon and Mitchell would make any other back they trade for, draft, or sign more valuable to you than anybody else in your league, which is trade leverage if you can avoid negotiating against yourself.
2. Agree it could remain a timeshare! But since Eli Mitchell is borderline free right now, you can own 100% of the 2022 SF backs more easily now than probably ever again. Also, owning Sermon and Mitchell would make any other back they trade for, draft, or sign more valuable to you than anybody else in your league, which is trade leverage if you can avoid negotiating against yourself.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Easier in dynasty for a team that already has Mostert.
In redraft it’s a tricky one to pull off unless you're picking at a bookend.
I’ve attempted to lock up backfields many times - it always seems like as soon as one goes off the board, someone reaches for the other. Especially when their ADP isn’t that far off. Mostert/Sermon & Williams/Gordon come to mind this year.
When you call out Mostert, chances are good that one of the teams between you & your next pick will be all
and pick Sermon.I see this is more and more likely the closer to the middle you’re picking in a snake redraft format. Less challenging toward the ends, but still only really a lock of picking first or last in a snake.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No doubt - and if health weren’t a concern, I’d be all over Mostert again this year.
last year he was a weekly league winner. 80 yard TDs out of the gate made for a fun player to roster.
Right up until he got hurt.
If the idea in SF is to keep Mostert fresh by RBBC with Sermon, they could both be viable FF backs. In principal I agree - given the choice, go with the one who’s capable of breaking off a TD any time he touches the ball.
Bur that said, I’m not really targeting Mostert this year but I do like Sermon as a RB4 in a later round.
Unfortunately I play in a league with 5 Niner fans. He’ll go higher than I want to take him, I’m certain.
Wow, this runs counter to the (failed) strategy that I've been using forever. I've been choosing to invest in the cheaper of the two options on the assumption that they will have similar production. This definitely changes my thought process going forward.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Same series he did last year on breakout running backs, it’s just he took a deeper dive this year when he updated the data. Historical data is finishing ADP (after 3rd PS game to opening kickoff, actual drafts not mocks.)
Do you remember where JJ said he preferred Sermon? I didn’t hear it on his podcast or the hour long he did on FantasyPros last week, but he’s a frequent guest everywhere.
Anyway, good chance Sermon may flip spots with Mostert. But that event will be driven by several factors that we will pick up along the way over the next six weeks. TC reports, comments from coaches, observations from the writers, impressive plays in preseason.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Similar past strategy and reaction for me as well. Just something to ponder, I’m not married to it, but I like doing what data tells me has better chance of succeeding.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Plus third down work. Everyone loves GL touches but RZ conversion rates / TDs are variable. Gimme the pinball machines getting targets over the big plodders 8 days a week in half/PPR formats.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Getting both Mostert and Sermon in redraft isn't very doable in recent drafts unless you're on an end and willing to take both back to back, which I hate doing. I've been taking Sermon over Mostert at this point. Mostert is no doubt the starter and the proven player, but it's tough to pull the trigger on a 29 year old coming off an 8 game season on a team that says they want to run the ball 500 times. I'll take the young legs and see what happens.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Fair point. The only 49ers RBs who had a N Hines like role - market share above 7.5% - is no longer on the team, McKinnon. Kittle & Samuel pick up the short route work in their system
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Good Grief BL the margin was 2%
Yes this is talking about a very small sample of as you say 4 players over a span of many seasons. So in my view its not strong evidence that one should take the RB 1 by ADP which is what JJ is saying and how you interpret the data.
Another way to do this is to check the hit rate of ADP by round. I would expect that to say that the higher the pick the more likely the player scores more points. But its not that perfect because of all of the variables and unknowns involved. So using a hit rate for that you would have a percentage for each round that your pick gives you return on investment of the price you paid for it.
The higher the pick the higher your hit rate on average.
Well the percentage of hits in round 6-9 is likely higher than hits in rounds after that so what you are risking is of a higher value in round 6-9 than it will be in round 12 and I think that difference would more than compensate for the lower hit rate for a later pick as detailed by JJ.
So is that really the better thing to do?
Personally I like taking good WR or QB in those rounds instead of using those picks on ambiguous backfields. The quality of players at those positions tend to be a lot higher in that draft range than the 1st RB from the team being selected by ADP.
While my odds of hitting on a 2nd or worse RB by ADP in round 12 might be half as much, that gap is made up for by the lower cost of the draft pick.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Math being the way it is though, that's a 20% difference (2% out of 10%). That's meaningful.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yes but I hate the advice being given here to draft the player with the highest ADP especially when there are so many more players hitting from the later parts of the draft than are hitting in the early parts of the draft where using a pick is actually sacrificing a good player you could be taking in that range instead.Instinctive said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’re reading too much into what he posted. It’s basically just showing that the consensus is generally correct when it comes to predicting the winner of RB training camp battles.
