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Really like the way this guy runs. He doesn't have the top-end speed to be an elite RB, but he has plenty of short-area quicks and vision, especially for his size. He runs with power when needed but doesn't seek out contact for the sake of it. And he seems to be a plus blocker. Can't speak to his character, but assuming he has the drive/ethic, I think Sermon will be an above avg starting RB in the league at some point.

He kind of reminds me of Arian Foster. Not saying he will be as good, but his style of running makes me think of prime Foster making jukes when needed, power when needed, and using excellent vision/instinct to rack up yards/scores when given the opportunity to be a lead dawg. Arian didn't need breakaway runs to make his impact, and I think Sermon could be similar if given the right opportunity set.

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I wonder if anyone should tell Mike about this.

There isn't a back in this class that was as good as Portis coming into the league. Before he put on all the muscle/mass for Gibbs he was so explosive...so good...that 5 TD game vs Chiefs...man I love

I changed the title.  Faust reminded me to do this, so thanks @Faust.  It's something I haven't made a priority in the past, but will do so when I see the threads I've created on the front page.

Here's a guy I may be sleeping on and I'm an OSU fan (married into it, stepson graduated from there).  He has great size and I believe he will be an effective inside runner.  He lacks speed, but so do some of the top RBs.  So if he lands in the perfect spot he could be a gem for fantasy.  Now I've got to start paying more attention to him.  How is that collarbone injury?

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Steelers rumored to be interested in him in the third. Makes sense. He's creeping up rookie boards. DLF ADP had him at 27 overall for rookie drafts. He's crept up to 23. Mike Clay has him rated 22nd or 23rd on his board overall for rookie drafts. I think he climbs higher than that after draft day. I'd hope to get him at the beginning to early-middle of the second round by then.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Steelers rumored to be interested in him in the third. Makes sense. He's creeping up rookie boards. DLF ADP had him at 27 overall for rookie drafts. He's crept up to 23. Mike Clay has him rated 22nd or 23rd on his board overall for rookie drafts. I think he climbs higher than that after draft day. I'd hope to get him at the beginning to early-middle of the second round by then.

In the right situation he could justify late round 1 selection. 

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5 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

In the right situation he could justify late round 1 selection. 

Yep. And in some situations, if he justifies a late round one selection, the likelihood is that he creeps up to the mid-round in terms of the top range taken, because there will be outliers (say, someone who has a mid-round pick and doesn't have one until the mid-second) that believe in him for whatever reason (which I would imagine would be due to his position).

Sermon's an interesting case. If he goes to the Steelers, somebody who has a few mid-to-late firsts to burn is potentially going to reach and take him there.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Sermon's an interesting case. If he goes to the Steelers, some sucker who has a few mid-to-late firsts to burn is potentially going to reach and take him there.

If he gets drafted by the Steelers as late as the 3rd round, he will be a 1.08-1.11 rookie ADP by May 15.

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44 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

If he gets drafted by the Steelers as late as the 3rd round, he will be a 1.08-1.11 rookie ADP by May 15.

Yep. That's essentially my point. If he goes in the 3rd to a needy team, his stock is going to rise. Bigly. By the way, I didn't mean sucker pejoratively. I edited that.

Edited by rockaction
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Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline reports that the Pittsburgh Steelers "love" Ohio State RB Trey Sermon.

Pittsburgh has been connected to Alabama RB Najee Harris throughout the evaluation process and there's a real possibility that they use pick No. 24 on the Tuscaloosa standout. If Harris gets swiped earlier, though, Pauline is hearing that Sermon would be in play for Round 2 at pick No. 55. In this scenario -- one where Harris is either drafted prior to Pittsburgh or Pittsburgh simply decides to wait on the position -- Pauline believes offensive line help could be the Day 1 medicine. Some within the organization, per Pauline, view Sermon's feet as akin to those of a young Le'Veon Bell.

SOURCE: Pro Football Network

Apr 27, 2021, 1:12 PM ET

 

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As a dev owner I'm beyond pleased.  Solid draft capital at RB is rare by Shanahan and he's got a track record of riding a guy once he decides on him so Sermon should get strong play immediately.

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6 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

As a dev owner I'm beyond pleased.  Solid draft capital at RB is rare by Shanahan and he's got a track record of riding a guy once he decides on him so Sermon should get strong play immediately.

2022 is my bet but I love the pick. 

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49ers traded up with the Rams to select Ohio State RB Trey Sermon with the No. 88 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

After signing as a four-star recruit, Sermon (6’0/215) played three seasons at Oklahoma as an efficient part-time rusher (6.1 YPC on 339 touts), but an LCL sprain and a depth chart shake-up sent him transferring to Ohio State as a senior. By the end of last season, Sermon looked like one of the class’s top rushers, featuring a quality jump cut and plus contact balance for a player of his stature. He solidified himself as a Day 2 talent after 29-331-2 and 31-193-1 rushing lines against Northwestern and Clemson in must-win contests, but those were his best games by far. He exited college with just three 20-plus carry games and 48 receptions across 45 career contests. Sermon’s tape, 73rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.59 forty with plus agility scores), and yards after contact numbers suggest there’s a ceiling to chase in an inside zone or power rushing scheme, but he is a wild card prospect on the Melvin Gordon to Jay Ajayi spectrum overall. He joins a backfield that already includes Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Wayne Gallman.

RELATED: 

Los Angeles Rams

Apr 30, 2021, 10:50 PM ET

 

 

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Draft grades roundup: Analysts weigh on 49ers selections of RB Trey Sermon, CB Ambry Thomas

Excerpts:

Quote

* Bleacher Report/Brent Sobleski: A for Sermon. "Sermon is made for Kyle Shanahan's zone strength. He will press the hole, make a decisive cut and break would-be tackle attempts," wrote Sobleski. "Shanahan's system has a long history of churning out 1,000-yard rushers even though they aren't household names. Sermon already showed what he can do on the biggest stage in college."

 

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* CBS Sports/Chris Trapasso: B-minus for both Sermon and Thomas. Trapasso on Sermon: "Surprising make-you-miss type because he's a power back. Awesome in a zone-blocking scheme, so it's sensible for 49ers. Just surprised Shanahan went RB this early."

Quote

* Draft Kings/Chet Gresham: A for both Sermon and Thomas. Gresham on Sermon: "Sermon landed in the perfect scheme for his abilities as a one-cut rusher. He's a big, decisive back, who Kyle Shanahan will put in great spots to put up yardage."

Quote

* Draft Wire/Luke Easterling: C-plus for Sermon, B-minus for Thomas. Easterling on Sermon: "Kyle Shanahan keeps reloading his offense, this time with a big, physical running back to help keep things balanced. Sermon had a fantastic 2020 campaign after transferring from Oklahoma, but taking him over North Carolina's Michael Carter is an intriguing decision."


 

Quote

* Sporting News/Vinnie Iyer: A for Sermon, B for Thomas. Iyer on Sermon: "The 49ers needed a big back to support Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. in their superior zone-blocking rushing attack and made a great call in adding more speed, quickness and fundamentals for their scheme. Sermon can be a very effective, unique change of pace."


 

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* WalterFootball.com/Walter Cherepinsky: D for Sermon, B-minus for Thomas.Cherepinsky on Sermon: "I'm surprised the 49ers traded up for a running back in the third round because it seems as though Kyle Shanahan can draft a running back in the eighth round and turn him into a star. Trey Sermon is a powerful runner, but he has poor vision and anticipation, which concerns me. He's also not good in pass protection, which is also a problem."

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* Eric Edholm/Yahoo Sports: B-minus on Sermon, C-plus on Thomas. Edholm on Sermon: " He could grab a starting role before long in San Francisco as a really intriguing fit in their inside- and outside-zone scheme. Sermon has power and surprising burst that was on display in a brilliant Big Ten title game, as well as at various other points at both Oklahoma and Ohio State. What held him back were consistency and health. Fantasy folks, keep an eye on this match."

 

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I think he's better than both Mostert and Wilson, but that backfield will remain a logjam. If Sermon gets the touches, he's an ideal fit and has a top 12 ceiling. Unfortunately, this looks like a three headed monster. Sermon is an ideal developmental prospect because he may not see a significant role in '21, but depending upon the contract status of Wilson and Mostert for '22, has significant upside.

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The future draft capital that the 49ers expended to trade up for Trey Lance also means that they are not using any high picks on running backs as competition for Trey Sermon anytime soon.

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5 minutes ago, killface said:

If he grabs this backfield, and i think he can, he is the number 1 rookie fantasy rb in my books

I don’t agree but I like the take and it’s surely possible it ends up that way.

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6 minutes ago, killface said:

If he grabs this backfield, and i think he can, he is the number 1 rookie fantasy rb in my books

He will be in a timeshare as long as Shanahan is his coach, and you will never be able to predict his workload in a given week.   We know this about Shanahan by now.

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1 minute ago, Alex P Keaton said:

He will be in a timeshare as long as Shanahan is his coach, and you will never be able to predict his workload in a given week.   We know this about Shanahan by now.

This is unfortunately true too.

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Posted (edited)

Part of San Fran's RB log-jam/committee/swap-shop over the past couple of years could just be that they never stay healthy, aren't a 3 down tool, or really aren't that fantastic to begin with.  Sermon could change a lot of this.  

Edited by beef
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12 minutes ago, killface said:

If he grabs this backfield, and i think he can, he is the number 1 rookie fantasy rb in my books

In the words of an old, wise philosopher, don't go chasing waterfalls.

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22 minutes ago, beef said:

Part of San Fran's RB log-jam/committee/swap-shop over the past couple of years could just be that they never stay healthy, aren't a 3 down tool, or really aren't that fantastic to begin with.  Sermon could change a lot of this.  

This!

SF rbs aren't rb by committee by default.  They have 3 years of guys not being able to go three games without injury.

I think Sermon changes this

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2 hours ago, killface said:

They have 3 years of guys not being able to go three games without injury.

I think Sermon changes this

I don't assume past injury history necessarily indicates future injuries. That said, I thought Sermon had trouble staying on the field in college.

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2 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

I don't assume past injury history necessarily indicates future injuries. That said, I thought Sermon had trouble staying on the field in college.

He did indeed, including a knee injury in 2019. Seemed to recover from it well, but was hurt on 1st carry in the championship game.

He was a great pick, but citing injuries to Mostert & others isn’t really on point considering Sermon’s own history.

I believe it’ll be RBBC - short yardage was the biggest need for the Niners, and Sermon should be a high quality option for that. He lacks top end speed, but that’s where Mostert comes in. From what I’ve seen, Sermon will put a foot in the ground and go on 1 cut, which is exactly the Niners style of play. 

By 2022 he should be featured, but ya never know with a shenanigans as HC.

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9 minutes ago, dewaser said:

Really eyeing him at 1.08. Any RB that is plugged into that Shanny Niners offense puts up numbers. I'm very, very intrigued.

Good long term prospect - IMO some FF value in 2021, more in 2022. If you can land him at 8 I think you’re doing well. 

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4 hours ago, killface said:

This!

SF rbs aren't rb by committee by default.  They have 3 years of guys not being able to go three games without injury.

I think Sermon changes this

I think Sermon fits in perfectly with this.  Another injury guy to keep the injury rotation in tact.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Good long term prospect - IMO some FF value in 2021, more in 2022. If you can land him at 8 I think you’re doing well. 

I think 1.08 is about right.  You can move Bateman up or down a spot.  But I think we’ll get good ROI on Sermon.

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9 minutes ago, jm192 said:

I think 1.08 is about right.  You can move Bateman up or down a spot.  But I think we’ll get good ROI on Sermon.

Agreed. 

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6 hours ago, dewaser said:

Really eyeing him at 1.08. Any RB that is plugged into that Shanny Niners offense puts up numbers. I'm very, very intrigued.

I think you can't go wrong there and depending on the draft he may not even last that long

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I don't think he's fast enough for Shanahan and what they like to do. I think he's gonna have stiff competition there with Mostert and Mitchell. Those guys are 4.4 and Sermon is all 4.6 something. I'm not sure that cuts it enough, nor is his pass catching enough to be the true apple of Shanny's eye. I don't even get the Sermon pick. I get the Mitchell pick, but not Sermon to the wide zone. Just...my two cents. 

I have no idea how to read the SF backfield tea leaves, so Sermon is probably a pass for me in the mid-first round. 1.08 is fine, though, I guess. I just wouldn't be too confident in that backfield right now. Mostert, Wilson, Gallman, Sermon, Mitchell, Hasty. 

Someone is seeing the practice squad or getting cut. But who?

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Well now I can't figure this out.  The analysts were just about to cream themselves over Mitchell and how good a fit he is for Shanahan's offense and how "Kyle just found his late round 1k rusher" so what gives with selecting Sermon in the 3rd?

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Hey @JohnnyU - can we get a thread title update on this one? 

We are less interested now in Trey Sermon transferring from Oklahoma to Ohio St. and are more interested in his dynasty & redraft prospects moving forward.

Thanks in advance!

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On 5/1/2021 at 7:59 PM, woodstock said:

I don't think he's fast enough for Shanahan and what they like to do.

Interesting take and I know everyone is trying to build up Mitchell due to his speed on notion that's what Kyle wants but one could argue this system has done more for non-fast RB's then any system that exists. Here are some RB's under Kyle, Mike or Kubiak all running the same system who were highly successful.

Terrell Davis- 4.72

Arian Foster- 4.68

Alfred Morris- 4.63

 

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Interesting take and I know everyone is trying to build up Mitchell due to his speed on notion that's what Kyle wants but one could argue this system has done more for non-fast RB's then any system that exists. Here are some RB's under Kyle, Mike or Kubiak all running the same system who were highly successful.

Terrell Davis- 4.72

Arian Foster- 4.68

Alfred Morris- 4.63

 

Fair enough. Morris ran a 4.61 at his pro day, according to Player Profiler. His is not a combine score. My only caveat is that we'd expect the modern game to reflect increases in time from the mid-nineties for Davis, and that Morris was a plodder in the NFL. Foster sticks out, but I'll respond with this: His speed score is something Football Outsiders has their own name for. It's called the Arian Foster Line because his score was so low that he's the only guy in recent history (from 1999) to have any reasonable success with that sort of height, weight, and forty time. See the below article. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/speed-score-2020

Look at the speed score chart. Sermon will be the only running back other than Arian Foster to have over 700 yards rushing in a year in the pros per his score if he does so. Only 1.3% of all those measured and in the pros within Sermon's range have a speed score that corresponded with over 700 yards rushing. In one year only. So he'd better be Arian Foster. I'm fading Sermon for that reason. His three-cone was great, so that's a different consideration, and even more correlated with success (I do not have those numbers in a handy chart. I think they're propreitary). So there's noise in the data. But the raw speed score news? It's not very positive for Sermon. 

Waldman says his speed corresponds and translates to the NFL -- that from film and proprietary GPS tracking speed measurements, Sermon does have NFL speed. 

I'm not so sure. I really like him, but I've gotta fade him. 

This is a tough year, for sure, for the data guys. I think it's why the NFL passed on so many guys and didn't draft them until late. But that's just my own theory. The point is that Sermon falls outside of norms for speed and success correlations, and it's easier not to take him in the mid-first. 

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

It's not like the NFL made SF draft Sermon. They new what they were getting when they drafted him.

Truth. That also gives me pause. They know what they want. Telling them what they really want sounds stupid. I'm just trying to analyze it from a six person backfield type of deal. That said, they did trade up for him, so there's that to consider. 

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And more to that, Javonte Williams has a speed score that falls within the Sermon range of 90-95, so if you're comparing those two, you've got more noise. 

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Posted (edited)

Alfred Morris NFL combine/pro day results

I have a bunch of fantasy drafts coming up and I'm not here to talk anyone up at this time of year.

So I'll just speak in general terms that for past few years now the average 40 for top 10 RB's defined by both fantasy and rushing has been over 4.55. Sermon is 4.59 but maybe if we adjusted it for combine track he's coming in 4.6'ish range. Ok. He's not a burner but I for one put ZERO stock in the speed score because I think the 40 is no more important then say the vertical in a vacuum and I mean by that is it depends on the RB.

For instance ETN is a 4.44 but he's slower reaching 10 yards then Sermon. Down in and down out which is more critical for the success of someone like Sermon with his game, inside 10 yards or past it? For ETN having a fast 40 is more critical because he's not winning as much IMO inside 10 yards. So if ETN ran a slow 40 it's a major issue, not for Sermon.

I'm not saying this in defense of Sermon in the least but for me I look at 40, vertical, 3 cone and 10 yard splits and I put no more stock in one then the other.  To me 40 measures long speed, the other's are solid measures for burst, acceleration, explosion and change of direction. Again with each RB you like to marry the workout numbers with what you see on tape as confirmation the athletic profile fits what you see and Sermon had elite 10 yard splits, elite 3 cone and borderline elite vertical.

It's crowded AF is SF and last few years I thought SF was worse for trying to predict RB usage then NE ever was so I'm not here stumping to go draft Sermon super high but I am here to say his 40 is not a factor to me.

 

Edited by menobrown
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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

It's crowded AF is SF and last few years I thought SF was worse for trying to predict RB usage then NE ever was so I'm not here stumping to go draft Sermon super high but I am here to say his 40 is not a factor to me.

 

I don't think that was the case last year but that could have been due to injuries.  However, It appeared to me that Mostert was the guy when healthy and available.  In the games he was he got the ball and it wasn't close to other guys.  When he went down that went to Coleman....same for McKinnon, and then same for Wilson.  Last year there wasn't really a surprise game out of someone that was just random like you get from NE.  You knew going in who was going to get the ball and it played out that way unless there was a mid game injury (which could happen to any team).  I thought SF was easy to read last year, although that doesn't mean this year will be.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Alfred Morris NFL combine/pro day results

I have a bunch of fantasy drafts coming up and I'm not here to talk anyone up at this time of year.

So I'll just speak in general terms that for past few years now the average 40 for top 10 RB's defined by both fantasy and rushing has been over 4.55. Sermon is 4.59 but maybe if we adjusted it for combine track he's coming in 4.6'ish range. Ok. He's not a burner but I for one put ZERO stock in the speed score because I think the 40 is no more important then say the vertical in a vacuum and I mean by that is it depends on the RB.

For instance ETN is a 4.44 but he's slower reaching 10 yards then Sermon. Down in and down out which is more critical for the success of someone like Sermon with his game, inside 10 yards or past it? For ETN having a fast 40 is more critical because he's not winning as much IMO inside 10 yards. So if ETN ran a slow 40 it's a major issue, not for Sermon.

I'm not saying this in defense of Sermon in the least but for me I look at 40, vertical, 3 cone and 10 yard splits and I put no more stock in one then the other.  To me 40 measures long speed, the other's are solid measures for burst, acceleration, explosion and change of direction. Again with each RB you like to marry the workout numbers with what you see on tape as confirmation the athletic profile fits what you see and Sermon had elite 10 yard splits, elite 3 cone and borderline elite vertical.

It's crowded AF is SF and last few years I thought SF was worse for trying to predict RB usage then NE ever was so I'm not here stumping to go draft Sermon super high but I am here to say his 40 is not a factor to me.

 

Your site is wrong about Morris and your numbers are wrong about Sermon. His official pro day was a 4.61. You can probably add about .03-.05 to that. I won't argue the rest of it. I've seen that site and it's consistently wrong. Had to correct Johnny U with actual combine times. 

That's great that you won't fade guys due to forty times adjusted for height and weight, which you're neglecting to mention -- it's a different measurement I'm talking about than a pure forty. The top backs might have been running around 4.5 or so, but they're heavy. So, long story short...more points for me!

Edited by woodstock
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3 minutes ago, woodstock said:

Your site is wrong about Morris and your numbers are wrong about Sermon. His official pro day was a 4.61. You can probably add about .03-.05 to that. I won't argue the rest of it. I've seen that site and it's consistently wrong. Had to correct Johnny U with actual combine times. 

 

The times for Sermon and Morris are absolutely correct, and that site listed Morris pro day as 4.61 if you bothered to look before assuming the site was wrong.

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Just now, menobrown said:

The times for Sermon and Morris are absolutely correct, and that site listed Morris pro day as 4.61 if you bothered to look before assuming the site was wrong.

No, they're absolutely wrong and a quick check will determine it. And you're typing it all wrong now, too. You listed Morris as a 4.63 at first. I had him at 4.61. So you're not even following the numbers. Your mind is made up. 

Google, "Trey Sermon, pro day" and get the official time. It's a 4.61. 

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And what are you even arguing about? You are the guy who said being slow in this system was an issue. I then showed you guys who ran slow who excelled and now you are arguing with me that a guy I said was successful in the system despite being slow is slower then I'm saying he is? I mean I'm freaking confused.

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1 minute ago, woodstock said:

No, they're absolutely wrong and a quick check will determine it. And you're typing it all wrong now, too. You listed Morris as a 4.63 at first. I had him at 4.61. So you're not even following the numbers. Your mind is made up. 

Google, "Trey Sermon, pro day" and get the official time. It's a 4.61. 

I verified and suggest you do the same. Looking for an argument and going in all kinds of directions looking for it and you won't get it from me, I'm done with you.

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You're done with an awful lot of people for really minor things. I suggest your attitude might need an adjustment. Either that or at least three people on this board need one. His speed score is still under 95, even if you shave .02 off of his time. That's all I'm saying. 

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  • JohnnyU changed the title to Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers

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