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Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers


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2 minutes ago, woodstock said:

You're done with an awful lot of people for really minor things. I suggest your attitude might need an adjustment. Either that or at least three people on this board need one. His speed score is still under 95, even if you shave .02 off of his time. That's all I'm saying. 

Yes I put a lot of people on my ignore list who don't know how to have a civil conversation instead of "I"m right, you're wrong" or just in general looking for an argument. I see no value in people like your who or need to make people endure the back and forth.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Yes I put a lot of people on my ignore list who don't know how to have a civil conversation instead of "I"m right, you're wrong" or just in general looking for an argument. I see no value in people like your who or need to make people endure the back and forth.

I was more than civil. Actually, anybody reading will find the civility dropped a notch or three with your first reply, just like with Andy in the QB thing. Please, go ahead. Ignore everyone you deem uncivil. You sound like you just don't like being wrong at all. 

Tra la. 

Edited by woodstock
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Just now, woodstock said:

I was more than civil.

 

Here is an example of civil. "I'm coming up with different combine and pro day numbers then you. Where are you getting your info from"? 

That's not how you came at me and anyone with a brain can see that.

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19 minutes ago, menobrown said:

The times for Sermon and Morris are absolutely correct, and that site listed Morris pro day as 4.61 if you bothered to look before assuming the site was wrong.

All I said was "your site is wrong" and you wrote this. I didn't even put it on you. I simply said your site was. You responded with

"...if you bothered to look before assuming"

Nice touch. Very conducive to conversation. It does not point out that you had Morris running a 4.63 in your post, which is what I was correcting.

I've learned that when someone seems to consistently have a problem with a few different members of a board in short order, either that board is the trouble, or the person isn't necessarily holding themselves out entirely in a manner that's conducive to conversation. Often times, people don't even realize what they're typing because they're so concerned with being right, or so convinced they are, that they use phrases like the above, which read much differently than the person thinks. 

I did bother to look. Your times weren't the official times. 

And add to that that .02 of a time isn't going to drop them out of speed score range that I was talking about, and you've got really a red herring almost. 

You don't like forties. That's fine. I like them when adjusted. Agree to disagree, I guess. But statistically, that will get you to select guys where if I'm competing with you, I celebrate. 

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Came in here to get my star and do a little more reading on Sermon (here). I usually put a lot of stock in RBs that coaches/GMs move up to get. I liked what I saw about him over the last month and was moving him up my board already before last week. His athletic testing was elite IMO and I'm not going to get into it beyond that. I'm not scared away by the other 5 RBs on the depth chart, including for 2021. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/3/2021 at 2:22 PM, woodstock said:

Let's get back to Trey Sermon. 

Generally speaking, I find it hard to swallow a methodology that projects a career heavily weighted on an exercise that lasts less than 10 seconds. Feels a lot more like correlation as opposed to causation. Let's talk about another 49ers RB that was drafted in the 3rd round that, like Sermon, was recovering from an ACL tear from the previous year... His combine results were: 217lbs, 4.58 40-time.

I think that guy did alright.

Dunno what you consider the authority on pro day results, but most Ohio state pro-day results I see show Sermon has having clocked 4.6/4.57 on his 40 times, and weighing in at 215lbs... Again, when we're at this level splitting hairs, the details seem almost irrelevant.

Edited by chinawildman
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I am out, especially at this ADP.  If you miss out on Sermon and settle for Bateman, Marshall, I think you dodged a bullet.  

If Trey Sermon grabs this backfield, and gets 20 touches, he'a an RB1, no doubt.  

Why on earth would Kyle Shanahan want to do that? He has the most innovative running game concepts in the NFL. He added Trey Lance at QB, has Mostert, Deebo, and even Aiuyk to snag carries.  Why would he put all those toys on a shelf, to feature Sermon, the LEAST likely of all these names to hit a home run?  Think abut that for a sec.  

If Lance is running an RPO, how long will defenses just sell out on the run, to force Lance to prove he can beat them with his arm?  So those RPO, Sermon won't get the ball. They will force the RPO to the 'harder' option.  

Long term, Wilson and Mostert are no threat, but they won't be here long term. You WISH they were. Who knows what young little pups the 49ers add to the backfield next year? 

If you think he's Dalvin or Chubb, rock on. Talent like that finds a way. But man, doesn't seem like anyone is planting that flag.  And if he's not a special talent, there are waaaay too many different ways I could imagine the carries being distributed. 

I have 1.08, and if Sermon is there, I am shopping that pick hard.  

No problem with the talent, I think path to consistent long term carries is a big projection.  

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1 hour ago, massraider said:

 

No problem with the talent, I think path to consistent long term carries is a big projection.  

But, wait. Aren't we supposed to bet on talent over situation?

(I'm firmly on the fence about Sermon, so half messing :) )

 

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4 hours ago, joey said:

But, wait. Aren't we supposed to bet on talent over situation?

(I'm firmly on the fence about Sermon, so half messing :) )

 

I don't bet on his talent over Bateman or Marshall.  I don't dislike the player, it feels like we're trying to shoehorn Sermon into a tier I am not sure exists.  

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Great pts above. I agree there are wayyyy too many mouths to feed in the running game, and not just from the other RBs. The upside is there but the risk outweighs it IMO. 

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6 hours ago, massraider said:

I am out, especially at this ADP.  If you miss out on Sermon and settle for Bateman, Marshall, I think you dodged a bullet.  

 

If Lance is running an RPO, how long will defenses just sell out on the run, to force Lance to prove he can beat them with his arm?  So those RPO, Sermon won't get the ball. They will force the RPO to the 'harder' option.  

 

When he starts beating them with his arm. :shrug: It's not like NDSU runs the option.

But you your first point, he's not worth taking before those guys. I'm not worried about what he faces from the depth chart but I am about his head coach. 49er and Patriot backfields are to be avoided.

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6 hours ago, massraider said:

I am out, especially at this ADP.  If you miss out on Sermon and settle for Bateman, Marshall, I think you dodged a bullet.  

If Trey Sermon grabs this backfield, and gets 20 touches, he'a an RB1, no doubt.  

Why on earth would Kyle Shanahan want to do that? He has the most innovative running game concepts in the NFL. He added Trey Lance at QB, has Mostert, Deebo, and even Aiuyk to snag carries.  Why would he put all those toys on a shelf, to feature Sermon, the LEAST likely of all these names to hit a home run?  Think abut that for a sec.  

If Lance is running an RPO, how long will defenses just sell out on the run, to force Lance to prove he can beat them with his arm?  So those RPO, Sermon won't get the ball. They will force the RPO to the 'harder' option.  

Long term, Wilson and Mostert are no threat, but they won't be here long term. You WISH they were. Who knows what young little pups the 49ers add to the backfield next year? 

If you think he's Dalvin or Chubb, rock on. Talent like that finds a way. But man, doesn't seem like anyone is planting that flag.  And if he's not a special talent, there are waaaay too many different ways I could imagine the carries being distributed. 

I have 1.08, and if Sermon is there, I am shopping that pick hard.  

No problem with the talent, I think path to consistent long term carries is a big projection.  

He does that a ton though.  Once he picks a guy that guy's the bellcow.  The only frustration we've had with Shanahan backs is he seems to change his underwear too often and a guy that was so productive one game is inexplicably swapped the next.  Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jeffrey Wilson - he's turned absolutely mediocre talent into fantasy RB1/2's.  Sermon's ADP bakes this risk in.  If we knew he was getting 350 touches a year in SFO offense he's the 1.01 every day.

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Inside the 49ers: Is running back Trey Sermon on path to instant impact?

Excerpt:
 

Quote

So the 49ers did, after all, draft a Georgia high school star who transferred to Ohio State and boosted his stock in a playoff rout of Clemson. 

Just not Justin Fields. Say hello, instead, to Trey Sermon. 

Sermon could make the most immediate impact among this 49ers’ draft class. 

Time will tell how he fits into a running back corps already loaded with experienced starters in Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Wayne Gallman. 

Rookie camp opens next week. Before you bookmark him for your fantasy football team, here is what’s to know about Sermon: 

— His 4.57-second 40-yard dash doesn’t fit the profile of 49ers’ speedsters in recent years under Kyle Shanahan. However, a 4.58-second time in 2005 worked out just fine for Frank Gore, the 49ers’ all-time leading rusher. 

Gore, like Sermon, was a third-round pick, as were Hall of Famers Bob St. Clair (1953), Dave Wilcox (’64), Joe Montana (’79) and Terrell Owens (’96). 

— General manager John Lynch on Sermon’s speed: “You may look at his 40 time and say he doesn’t really fit, but sometimes 40 times can be deceiving. What speaks to us is his 10 time (1.49-second 10-yard split) was very good. 

“So you see that burst. You see that ability to stick his foot in the ground, break tackles and hit it in a hurry. And then he’s very adept at making the free safety, the second-level defender miss and he’s really good out of the backfield in the past game as well.”

— Scot McCloughan, a former 49ers general manager who runs his own scouting service, does not envision Sermon as a starter. 

“If you watch (Leonard) Fournette in the playoffs for the Bucs, (Sermon) is going to be like that. He’s going to run the ball when he needs to,” McCloughan told The Athletic. “He’s going to catch the ball and make some plays. But he’s never gonna be fancy. It’s never gonna be “Wow!” type plays. I think he’ll be solid on teams and he’ll be a good No. 2. I imagine he’ll be good in pass pro. He has a big body.” 

— A left-knee injury (lateral collateral ligament) ended his three-year term at Oklahoma, and a separated shoulder ended his college career, that injury coming on the first play of Ohio State’s national championship game. 

And now? “I’m 100 percent,” said Sermon, who also sustained a back fracture his junior year of high school. 

Shanahan said the 49ers tried to avoid health risks this draft, because of the 49ers’ luck the past few years. He added that last season’s injuries “hit us harder than anything, hit us before COVID, and that’s something we can’t do again.” 

— Sermon grew up in the Atlanta suburb of Marietta, and not only did his Sprayberry High School team face Fields (Harrison High), but they shared an area trainer, Charles “Tuna” Burhanan. Fields was among the quarterbacks the 49ers scouted hard before the draft before choosing Trey Lance. 

— That link to Fields helped draw Sermon to Ohio State for “a better opportunity” his senior season. At the same time, Sermon became familiar with the 49ers’ offense, recalling: “I studied it when I was coming to Ohio State, because I know Ohio State runs a lot of outside zone.” 

— In Sermon’s first collegiate road game, he led Oklahoma with 62 rushing yards in a win against host Ohio State (and current 49ers teammate Nick Bosa). Following that game Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield celebrated with a flag plant, which Bosa avenged in their 2019 Browns-49ers matchup. 

— Sermon averaged 9.1 yards per carry over a three-game stretch that included 193 rushing yards plus 61 receiving yards over Clemson in the CFP semifinals.  From his first three years at Oklahoma to last season at Ohio State, all his teams made it to the College Football Playoff. 

— Day 2 curse? The 49ers traded up 14 spots to draft Sermon at No. 88 in the third round. That strategy didn’t pay off with Day 2 picks C.J. Beathard (2017) and Dante Pettis (2018). The 49ers didn’t draft on Day 2 last year, having traded those picks in 2019 for Dee Ford and Emmanuel Sanders. 

— No. 22 is apparently what will adorn his jersey, according to his Instagram story. 

— Sermon was the first running back drafted by the 49ers since Joe Williams, a 2017 fourth-rounder blunder. Both Sermon and Williams ran for over 300 yards in a game their final college seasons, Sermon’s coming against Northwestern in the Big Ten championship for 331 yards. 

— His pro day workout (vertical jump) raised funds for domestic violence survivors. Chief among them is his mother, Dr. Natoshia Mitchell, who has a nonprofit called Arise by Faith. She wrote a book, When My Soul Cried, about her tragic background including the loss of two children, one of whom was murdered by his father (not Trey’s).

— Sermon spoke with 49ers running backs coach Bobby Turner more than any other teams’ coach during the pre-draft process. That’s not a surprise considering Turner’s call log to prospects each spring. But it’s good that Sermon kept Turner company, because the 49ers’ brass was preoccupied with the quarterback hunt.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

He does that a ton though.  Once he picks a guy that guy's the bellcow.  The only frustration we've had with Shanahan backs is he seems to change his underwear too often and a guy that was so productive one game is inexplicably swapped the next.  Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jeffrey Wilson - he's turned absolutely mediocre talent into fantasy RB1/2's.  Sermon's ADP bakes this risk in.  If we knew he was getting 350 touches a year in SFO offense he's the 1.01 every day.

I agree with the first few sentences, but not the bolded one. I don't think Shanahan changes his tune as much as it seems that every time one of the guys moves to the top of the depth chart, he gets hurt shortly thereafter and it's next man up. From McKinnon to Coleman to Mostert to Wilson to Hasty, none of these guys seems to be able to sustain a long stretch of games being healthy as the main guy. Perhaps Sermon will break that mold - we'll see.

Edited by zamboni
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54 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I agree with the first few sentences, but not the bolded one. I don't think Shanahan changes his tune as much as it seems that every time one of the guys moves to the top of the depth chart, he gets hurt shortly thereafter and it's next man up. From McKinnon to Coleman to Mostert to Wilson to Hasty, none of these guys seems to be able to sustain a long stretch of games being healthy as the main guy. Perhaps Sermon will break that mold - we'll see.

Fair enough, I guess it's that he never goes back to the original guy that's my biggest frustration.  Someone gets a hangnail and it's the Jeffrey Wilson show for the rest of the year (until Wilson has a sore tongue, then it's off to someone else).  You kind of need to get all the pieces of the backfield and plug in whichever is the flavor of the moment.

Maybe the draft capital will work in Sermon's favor, maybe it won't.  But depending on his price (he just went 18 in an IDP league) I'll see.

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8 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Fair enough, I guess it's that he never goes back to the original guy that's my biggest frustration.  Someone gets a hangnail and it's the Jeffrey Wilson show for the rest of the year (until Wilson has a sore tongue, then it's off to someone else).  You kind of need to get all the pieces of the backfield and plug in whichever is the flavor of the moment.

Maybe the draft capital will work in Sermon's favor, maybe it won't.  But depending on his price (he just went 18 in an IDP league) I'll see.

In my one dynasty league I have Mostert, Sermon, and Mitchell so I might be in luck!

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2 hours ago, The Show said:

Great pts above. I agree there are wayyyy too many mouths to feed in the running game, and not just from the other RBs. The upside is there but the risk outweighs it IMO. 

I get what you are saying about not just from the RB's but the RB's room only has Sermon and Mitchel under contract past this year.

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26 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I get what you are saying about not just from the RB's but the RB's room only has Sermon and Mitchel under contract past this year.

This is a very good point if you're thinking dynasty/keeper. Sure, Shanahan could always bring in a new crop of competitors if Wilson/Mostert, etc. aren't retained, but if Sermon takes the reins he could have a very good spot for the next few years.

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9 hours ago, massraider said:

If Trey Sermon grabs this backfield, and gets 20 touches, he'a an RB1, no doubt.  I'd settle out of court right now for 15 touches and a high end RB2. I'd love to get an RB1 (and I might) but my range of expectations include being happy with a double instead of a home run. I'm not really sure any of the WRs in that area are going to get me more, at a position I don't really need help at, than what Sermon could give me at RB. Even if it is only a double. But there is absolutely upside for more. 

If Lance is running an RPO, how long will defenses just sell out on the run, to force Lance to prove he can beat them with his arm?  So those RPO, Sermon won't get the ball. They will force the RPO to the 'harder' option.  Yes, Trey Lance will be tested in the NFL. Yes the success of Sermon will be at least somewhat tied to that process. No doubt. 

Long term, Wilson and Mostert are no threat, but they won't be here long term. You WISH they were. Who knows what young little pups the 49ers add to the backfield next year? Ok but not a problem if Sermon is any good. If he actually shows out there and can stay healthy then why is this something to worry about? If he busts he busts. We can say these things about anyone.

If you think he's Dalvin or Chubb, rock on. Talent like that finds a way. But man, doesn't seem like anyone is planting that flag.  And if he's not a special talent, there are waaaay too many different ways I could imagine the carries being distributed. Is it even possible to plant that flag at 1.08? It isn't cheap but it's hardly in the tier(s) where anyone should be expecting anything special.

I have 1.08, and if Sermon is there, I am shopping that pick hard.  But yeah hit me up I'll move up. I'll say this, too, if you don't like him then yes you should probably be shopping here. I like Marshall and Carter and a couple others but 1.08 is maybe(?) too high.

No problem with the talent, I think path to consistent long term carries is a big projection.  Bigger than other RBs available there? And bigger than the projections from the WRs there? Position scarcity being a factor as well. 

You could totally be right, I guess I just don't feel like the fear of a bust there is worthy of not making the pick. Another thing to consider, even if you don't like him and don't get an offer OTC that you like, somebody in your league is going to warm up to him and give you something you like for him. He might have more future trade value than anyone else at that point in the draft.

 

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

He does that a ton though.  Once he picks a guy that guy's the bellcow.  The only frustration we've had with Shanahan backs is he seems to change his underwear too often and a guy that was so productive one game is inexplicably swapped the next.  Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jeffrey Wilson - he's turned absolutely mediocre talent into fantasy RB1/2's.  Sermon's ADP bakes this risk in.  If we knew he was getting 350 touches a year in SFO offense he's the 1.01 every day.

I agree with this. At 1.08 or later the risk isn't zero but it isn't a bullet either. It is baked in as you say.

I think the thing a lot of people are missing is that the Niners have been ridiculously snake bit with injuries at RB over the last few years, and that impacts the rotation in a chaotic, unpredictable way. Trying to predict a rotation based on that pattern is a fool's game. Blowing it off as Shanahan being difficult to read is too simplistic as well.

They moved up to get him. That means a lot to me. Guess we'll find out soon how this plays out. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

I agree with this. At 1.08 or later the risk isn't zero but it isn't a bullet either. It is baked in as you say.

I think the thing a lot of people are missing is that the Niners have been ridiculously snake bit with injuries at RB over the last few years, and that impacts the rotation in a chaotic, unpredictable way. Trying to predict a rotation based on that pattern is a fool's game. Blowing it off as Shanahan being difficult to read is too simplistic as well.

They moved up to get him. That means a lot to me. Guess we'll find out soon how this plays out. 

Agreed. His ADP seems to be very reasonable if you can get him now and could be a high reward/low risk proposition. But if he shines in training camp, that price will obviously go up.

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44 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

You could totally be right, I guess I just don't feel like the fear of a bust there is worthy of not making the pick. Another thing to consider, even if you don't like him and don't get an offer OTC that you like, somebody in your league is going to warm up to him and give you something you like for him. He might have more future trade value than anyone else at that point in the draft.

 

Great points in your post.  I think my objections are really only like two spots.  Bateman and Marshall are in a tier above.

I'm already probably labeled a DeVonta hater, don't wanna go too far here, heh heh.  

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13 minutes ago, massraider said:

Great points in your post.  I think my objections are really only like two spots.  Bateman and Marshall are in a tier above.

I'm already probably labeled a DeVonta hater, don't wanna go too far here, heh heh.  

Yeah they're right there. I've seen people taking Carter before Sermon in redraft this past week. There is a big drop off in that area and I guess it just depends on where those sweet spots are for you (or me or whoever) and any potential trade partners. It is sure to vary from league to league. I think a lot of people will be willing to move up for him though. 

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Fair enough, I guess it's that he never goes back to the original guy that's my biggest frustration.  Someone gets a hangnail and it's the Jeffrey Wilson show for the rest of the year (until Wilson has a sore tongue, then it's off to someone else).  You kind of need to get all the pieces of the backfield and plug in whichever is the flavor of the moment.

Maybe the draft capital will work in Sermon's favor, maybe it won't.  But depending on his price (he just went 18 in an IDP league) I'll see.

I disagree with the bolded at least for last year.  Mostert was the guy every game he was healthy to start.  Going into every game the obvious guy got the touches (unless he got hurt mid game).  There weren't really any out of the blue big games but a lot of that could be because of the injury carousel.......and Sermon fits right into that carousel.

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I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right? 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, The Captain said:

I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right? 

He has quite a few whiffs, and some bigger I think, than Butler... but he also has a good list of hits as well as some nice value pulls from deeper in the drafts. What's great is he has a pretty consistent process year to year and breaks down the skill categories in such a way that you can pretty easily see why he thinks any given player is good/bad. So you can take that and just look at the tape to see if you agree on a point by point basis and go from there. 

His narrative on Sermon is basically that he's a do everything back with the on-field IQ, short area quicks, build, and efficient movement that adds up to a package that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Is that what you/we see in the tape too... 🤷‍♂️?

It'd be interesting to try and find a good comp and watch their pre-draft highlights to see how they compare... whether they are equally uninspiring. Arian Foster maybe? Bell (though he was quite a bit bigger)?

Edited by Adso
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9 hours ago, The Captain said:

I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right? 

The Butler one still hurts... this site single handly raised that kids ADP to the heavens a couple of yrs ago.    

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11 hours ago, The Captain said:

I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right? 

I'm not seeing it with Sermon either. 

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12 hours ago, The Captain said:

I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right? 

Well it was a heck of a landing spot, that should help.

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Trey Sermon came in 5th with a C- and projected points per game of 11.0 over three years in Dynasty Nerds' Zach David's Z-Score for running backs. It went Harris, Williams, Etienne, Stevenson, and then Sermon.

Linky right here: https://www.dynastynerds.com/predicting-rookie-rb-success-post-nfl-draft-2021-fantasy-football/

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Trey Sermon came in 5th with a C- and projected points per game of 11.0 over three years in Dynasty Nerds' Zach David's Z-Score for running backs. It went Harris, Williams, Etienne, Stevenson, and then Sermon.

Linky right here: https://www.dynastynerds.com/predicting-rookie-rb-success-post-nfl-draft-2021-fantasy-football/

Stevenson, wow. Seems bold.

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17 minutes ago, foxco said:

Stevenson, wow. Seems bold.

Waldman liked him, too. Think he had him as RB8 in the draft.

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2 hours ago, foxco said:

Stevenson, wow. Seems bold.

I read the writeups and felt like he as a real bias in his comments for Stevenson vs Sermon.

On Stevenson he points out that Michel's 5th year is not picked up and projects possible Harris/Stevenson RB duo in 2022. But on Sermon he never mentions that Mostert and Wilson are on last year of their deals but just openly asks if SF will always be a RBBC, as if NE has not been? I just think if we are looking at their potential long term situations that Sermons is clearly better, to say nothing of short term and talent.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, rockaction said:

Waldman liked him, too. Think he had him as RB8 in the draft.

Waldman had him as his #1 RB in this draft...

To note: he revealed it on a recent podcast

Edited by ty247
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3 minutes ago, ty247 said:

Waldman had him as his #1 RB in this draft...

To note: he revealed it on a recent podcast

I'm talking about Rhamondre Stevenson. Yes, Sermon was first.

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Just now, rockaction said:

I'm talking about Rhamondre Stevenson. Yes, Sermon was first.

Sorry I didn't catch that.

Waldman's never steered me wrong in RB rankings, really the RB rankings are his baby / thing.

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2 minutes ago, ty247 said:

Sorry I didn't catch that.

Waldman's never steered me wrong in RB rankings, really the RB rankings are his baby / thing.

Yeah, love me some Sermon. Think he'll do just fine in the NFL, provided he doesn't get hurt like every other 49er back, or so it seems.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, love me some Sermon. Think he'll do just fine in the NFL, provided he doesn't get hurt like every other 49er back, or so it seems.

People keep group thinking and mentioning that Key'Shawn Vaughn as their reason 'why not' Sermon.

I wonder why we're not talking about Alvin Kamara as another 3rd round example to compare to.

 

Edit: obviously extremes in either direction

Edited by ty247
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1 minute ago, ty247 said:

People keep group thinking and mentioning that Key'Shawn Vaughn as their reason 'why not' Sermon.

I wonder why we're not talking about Alvin Kamara as another 3rd round example to compare to.

 

Edit: obviously extremes in either direction

Yeah, they did do a draft capital breakdown of the last ten years with the overall pick in one article I read. Sermon's company wasn't exactly stellar in terms of production. But yes, he could be another example of a guy overcoming his draft capital. The question becomes: How much do you want to bet on it and what value are you giving up with the pick you take him with?

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20 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, they did do a draft capital breakdown of the last ten years with the overall pick in one article I read. Sermon's company wasn't exactly stellar in terms of production. But yes, he could be another example of a guy overcoming his draft capital. The question becomes: How much do you want to bet on it and what value are you giving up with the pick you take him with?

I spent 2.01 on him, with Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman on the board.

I wouldn't go any earlier and I typically wouldn't draft a 3rd round back in this scenario over those two guys but my faith in Matt Waldman is high and it's the only reason I pulled the trigger in this case.

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7 minutes ago, ty247 said:

I spent 2.01 on him, with Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman on the board.

I wouldn't go any earlier and I typically wouldn't draft a 3rd round back in this scenario over those two guys but my faith in Matt Waldman is high and it's the only reason I pulled the trigger in this case.

That's awesome. I would take him over those two, also. I think. RBs are so scarce.

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3 hours ago, ty247 said:

Sorry I didn't catch that.

Waldman's never steered me wrong in RB rankings, really the RB rankings are his baby / thing.

I love Waldman's effort and I buy the guide almost every year, but, uhh, he and I were both very wrong on Ameer Abdullah. Just to provide a counter example.

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3 hours ago, mcintyre1 said:

I love Waldman's effort and I buy the guide almost every year, but, uhh, he and I were both very wrong on Ameer Abdullah. Just to provide a counter example.

Anyone besides me remember Cedric Peerman?

That's right, who?

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Quote

49ers running backs coach Bobby Turner said rookie RB Trey Sermon can succeed in Kyle Shanahan's offense. 

Turner, 72, has been a running back whisperer for Kyle and his father, Steve, for decades, determining which backs coming out of college would best fit the Shanahans' zone run scheme. When Turner was Denver's running backs coach in the 1990s, the Broncos drafted Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, and Mike Anderson, all of whom rushed for more than 1,000 yards at least once in their careers. None of the Denver backs were drafted before the fourth round. Turner told The Athletic that while Sermon -- drafted with the 88th pick out of Ohio State -- can improve his "long speed," his size, strength, and acceleration are excellent fits for the Shanahan system. "His reads, his instincts, his ability to communicate and retain — I like all that," Turner said of Sermon. Turner added that Elijah Mitchell, the Niners' sixth round pick out of Louisiana-Lafayette, would be a good fit in the team's rushing attack. The rookies enter a crowded backfield that will be a focal point of fantasy managers' attention this summer. 

RELATED: 

Elijah Mitchell

SOURCE: The Athletic 

May 12, 2021, 9:51 AM ET

 

 

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I traded Jacobs, Fitzpatrich/Heinicke for 1.11 (Sermon) and 4.11.

 

I have Mostert and figured getting Sermon gives me the likely lead guy for the foreseeable future in SF and I have never really been a Jacobs guy (I inherited the orphan with Jacobs already on it).  I had been trying to move him since January with no luck.  

 

I am happy with this move.  

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

Turner, 72, has been a running back whisperer for Kyle and his father, Steve, for decades, determining which backs coming out of college would best fit the Shanahans' zone run scheme. 

I wonder if anyone should tell Mike about this.

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On 5/7/2021 at 6:46 PM, The Captain said:

I don’t know. I’ve watched the Sermon highlight reels where you’re supposed to be impressed by the next great thing but I’m not seeing it. The one thing that brings me back is Waldman saying he’s his #1 guy. Matt whiffed massively a couple years ago with Hakeem Butler as his #1 WR. If he does it again with Sermon it will seriously hurt his brand...so he has to be right...right? 

Guys that look like the next big thing typically don't last until the 3rd round. I think Sermon will be a good NFL back because he's the guy that turns a 3yd run into a 5yd gain. Not flashy and isn't going to jump out at you on film, but it will keep him on the field and keep drives alive. His big runs are not going to come from outrunning the D, but making the safety miss at the 2nd level.

My concerns w/ him are injury-related. I think he looked more explosive at Oklahoma prior to the ACL tear... may explain why he started off slow after transferring to OSU.

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  • JohnnyU changed the title to Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers

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