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Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers


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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Are people drafting Sermon too high?  

I don't think so but I'm one of the ones drafting him whenever/wherever I can. I was hoping at least one RB would emerge as a viable option after the consensus big 3 this year and I like him a *lot* more than a lot of the WRs in that range. I was already moving him up quickly before he got drafted in SF, which I had called the best RB landing spot. I try to do as much research as I can handle on the incoming rookies prior to the NFL draft, but Sermon had been a bit of a blind spot for awhile until about 2 or 3 weeks before the draft when I finally dove into his profile and came away surprised and impressed. Then he landed. You could show me the Gray's Sports Almanac from 2025 that shows D Smith as the next Marvin Harrison and I'd still be tempted to take Sermon first (assuming I didn't get to see his stats). 

That does *not* mean I think Sermon is any kind of lock, but they moved up to get him and I think he will earn a big role with lots of upside. But even if he has a "lead in a committee" floor, I can actually use that on my rosters more than another WR that I will be required to sit a stud for in order to make room in my lineup. 

 

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1 minute ago, kutta said:

Grabbed him at 2.01 after taking R. Moore at 1.09 and Marshall at 1.11. Was happy to see Sermon still there.

Why so high on Rondale Moore?  Who besides Marshall was on the board at 1.09?

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Why so high on Rondale Moore?  Who besides Marshall was on the board at 1.09?

Bateman went at 1.10 and E. Moore at 1.12.

I'll admit R. Moore was a bit of a homer pick (I'm a Cards fan and about half the league is). But I also think if R. Moore hits, he could be huge - lots of short screens and backfield passes. I really see them trying to get him the ball a lot.

Also, my team is pretty decent (Henry, Akers, Gibson, Gaskin, DJ at RB and Adams, Golladay, Kupp, Reagor, Shenault at WR) so I could afford to take the risk on drafting some guys that could really be big if they hit.

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9 minutes ago, kutta said:

Grabbed him at 2.01 after taking R. Moore at 1.09 and Marshall at 1.11. Was happy to see Sermon still there.

Glad it worked out for you and I honestly would have taken them in the reverse order that you did.

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4 minutes ago, joey said:

I took Sermon at 1.8 in FFPC :bag:

Same and he went 7/8 in all 6 of my FFPC drafts so this is normal. I did two non-FFPC regular PPR drafts and he went 5 and 10.

But the way Kutta played it was actually perfect and you and I would have likely messed it up by taking Sermon with the first pick and then not getting one of those WR's, if you wanted one of them.

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1 hour ago, Foosball God said:

1.8 seems high, I got him at 2.2 in my 14 team dynasty.

Who would you take ahead of him?  It's a gosh darn grand canyon dropoff after the first 6-7 players this year.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

Bateman went at 1.10 and E. Moore at 1.12.

I'll admit R. Moore was a bit of a homer pick (I'm a Cards fan and about half the league is). But I also think if R. Moore hits, he could be huge - lots of short screens and backfield passes. I really see them trying to get him the ball a lot.

Also, my team is pretty decent (Henry, Akers, Gibson, Gaskin, DJ at RB and Adams, Golladay, Kupp, Reagor, Shenault at WR) so I could afford to take the risk on drafting some guys that could really be big if they hit.

Never use "big" and Rondale Moore in the same sentence :)

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14 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Who would you take ahead of him?  It's a gosh darn grand canyon dropoff after the first 6-7 players this year.

No it isn't.  The drop off starts at 1.10.  Chase, Harris, Pitts, ETN, Williams, Waddle, Smith, Lawrence, Bateman.  Some could argue for Lance, Marshall, and E Moore too.  Some could argue Carter over Sermon as well.  To me that is a toss up.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

Chase, Harris, Pitts, ETN, Williams, Waddle, Smith, Lawrence, Bateman  Lance, MarshallE Moore Carter Sermon

This is how I see it in 1QB leagues.  Could reasonably argue for Sermon over the Alabama shrimps as well.

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This is how I see it in 1QB leagues.  Could reasonably argue for Sermon over the Alabama shrimps as well.

No way would I take Sermon over Lawrence or either of the Alabama WRs no matter what the format.  I would have a hard time taking him over Lance (even in a 1 qb league).  I wouldn't fault anyone taking him over E Moore or Marshall but may end up even regretting that.

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7 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I'm just not in love with this class as a whole, I generally don't want anyone after Harris, Chase and Pitts. 

Nothing is a sure thing most years.  Not even the 3 you mentioned, especially Harris.

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I traded Fitzpatrick/Heinicke & Jacobs for 1.11 and 4.11 while it was on the clock to take Sermon (I have Mostert).  I am not a fan of Jacobs and see a drop off and figured it was worth moving him to sure up the SF backfield.  I also really like Sermon and was trying to move Jacobs for the pick on the clock starting at 1.06 and it finally hit for the 1.11 and Sermon was still there for me.  I think it was well worth it.  

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When I saw Sermon dropping, I tried to trade up to 1.12 to get him (Offered Lockett)... and he went 1.11 

Alas, no rest for the weary.  

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59 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

There is always someone that needs a QB, Lawrence has got enough hype to be in that range.

Lawrence went at 1.11 in one of my 1QB leagues, guy who took him tried his hardest to trade out of the pick but ultimately stayed put. Watson was his only other QB of note.

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1 hour ago, zed2283 said:

No way Sermon gets out of the first round in "normal" leagues.

His value should be between 1.10 - 2.02.  I feel anything earlier than 1.10 is too high in start 1qb leagues.  Even lower in SF.

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I had the 1.06 and 1.07.  Went Waddle and Sermon.  Tried to trade out of #7 but had crap offers.  Pre draft was thinking Waddle and Bateman until he landed in Baltimore. Happy with Sermon over Smith and Bateman. 

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I love the talent but not in love with the landing spot. I figure Mostert, Wilson, Sermon and Lance is a lot to support in just rushing game alone that does not include Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle in the receiving game. Trey Lance should vulture a lot of goal line opportunities. I was sitting at the 2.3 in a contract keeper league and took Lance over Sermon. I just figure best player ava. at that point. I actually moved back from the 1.9 to 1.12 and picked up the the 2.3.  I was hoping Michael Carter would fall but he went 2.1. So long story short or longer than I intended. I debated best player ava. and selected Trey Lance over Sermon.  1QB league of course.

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11 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

I love the talent but not in love with the landing spot. I figure Mostert, Wilson, Sermon and Lance is a lot to support in just rushing game alone that does not include Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle in the receiving game. Trey Lance should vulture a lot of goal line opportunities. I was sitting at the 2.3 in a contract keeper league and took Lance over Sermon. I just figure best player ava. at that point. I actually moved back from the 1.9 to 1.12 and picked up the the 2.3.  I was hoping Michael Carter would fall but he went 2.1. So long story short or longer than I intended. I debated best player ava. and selected Trey Lance over Sermon.  1QB league of course.

Who did you have at QB already.  Debating Trey Lance over Sermon and some of these wrs in a 1QB for the same reason - BPA.  But I already have Lamar so I'm torn.  

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1 minute ago, facook said:

Who did you have at QB already.  Debating Trey Lance over Sermon and some of these wrs in a 1QB for the same reason - BPA.  But I already have Lamar so I'm torn.  

Which player do you think is the best?  select that guy regardless of your roster.  The goal is to hit on the pick and you have the best chance of doing that by taking the player you think is the best.  If you honestly have them tied then need should be the tie break.  

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35 minutes ago, facook said:

Who did you have at QB already.  Debating Trey Lance over Sermon and some of these wrs in a 1QB for the same reason - BPA.  But I already have Lamar so I'm torn.  

Well, I have Deshaun Watson not under contract. I  can cut/trade or contract him though all my contracts are spoken for but the option is always there. So, I basically have no QB and not a lot of FA quarterbacks to draft however there are some but my first pick in our FA draft is 1.10 so pickings might be slim. I selected Justin Fields with the 1.12 with the idea of selecting the best player ava, at 2.3. I took a long look and really after about 15 players in the whole rookie draft there is really no one else that I liked. It came down to Sermon and Lance as the last 2 players I felt were the best ava. I took Trey Lance.  I do really like Sermon when he is healthy and he will have some monster games in San Fran but those games will be hard to predict and I see this as a running back headache but no denying his talent when he is healthy. Trey Lance's ceiling is huge and he will get some rushing points both in yards and at the goal line. My heart said Sermon my brain said Lance.

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3 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

I love the talent but not in love with the landing spot. I figure Mostert, Wilson, Sermon and Lance is a lot to support in just rushing game alone that does not include Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle in the receiving game. Trey Lance should vulture a lot of goal line opportunities. I was sitting at the 2.3 in a contract keeper league and took Lance over Sermon. I just figure best player ava. at that point. I actually moved back from the 1.9 to 1.12 and picked up the the 2.3.  I was hoping Michael Carter would fall but he went 2.1. So long story short or longer than I intended. I debated best player ava. and selected Trey Lance over Sermon.  1QB league of course.

What is not to love about the landing spot?  The 49ers were already a run heavy team and have now drafted a running QB and that only helps the running game.  Wayne Gallman leads the backfield in career carries with 338.  Gallman could be cut with no cap hit.  Mostert's cap hit if he is cut is less the a half million, and they would save 2.5.  He is competing with two undrafted free agents(Mostert, Jeff Wilson), a 4th round pick (Gallman) and a 6th round pick (Elijah Mitchell).  From a talent perspective, Wilson and Gallman are no threat.  Mostert has proven he can play, but he is 29 years old and injury prone.  Looking at the landscape, I fully expect him to lead the 49ers in rushing this year.  My biggest concern is Mitchell.  I had no problem taking him at 1.7 over Waddle who I'm not a fan of.

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14 hours ago, osubuckeyeman said:

I love the talent but not in love with the landing spot. I figure Mostert, Wilson, Sermon and Lance is a lot to support in just rushing game alone that does not include Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle in the receiving game. Trey Lance should vulture a lot of goal line opportunities. I was sitting at the 2.3 in a contract keeper league and took Lance over Sermon. I just figure best player ava. at that point. I actually moved back from the 1.9 to 1.12 and picked up the the 2.3.  I was hoping Michael Carter would fall but he went 2.1. So long story short or longer than I intended. I debated best player ava. and selected Trey Lance over Sermon.  1QB league of course.

Samuel and Aiyuk also get a lot more carries than “normal” WRs.

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18 hours ago, Shawnky said:

I had the 1.06 and 1.07.  Went Waddle and Sermon.  Tried to trade out of #7 but had crap offers.  Pre draft was thinking Waddle and Bateman until he landed in Baltimore. Happy with Sermon over Smith and Bateman. 

I think the narrative that Smith is in a tier above Sermon is already weakening and Sermon will continue to rise over the summer, especially if Sermon has a great preseason and/or other SF running backs drop out of the picture. 

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29 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

I think the narrative that Smith is in a tier above Sermon is already weakening and Sermon will continue to rise over the summer, especially if Sermon has a great preseason and/or other SF running backs drop out of the picture. 

It is?

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Nero said:

What is not to love about the landing spot?  The 49ers were already a run heavy team and have now drafted a running QB and that only helps the running game.  Wayne Gallman leads the backfield in career carries with 338.  Gallman could be cut with no cap hit.  Mostert's cap hit if he is cut is less the a half million, and they would save 2.5.  He is competing with two undrafted free agents(Mostert, Jeff Wilson), a 4th round pick (Gallman) and a 6th round pick (Elijah Mitchell).  From a talent perspective, Wilson and Gallman are no threat.  Mostert has proven he can play, but he is 29 years old and injury prone.  Looking at the landscape, I fully expect him to lead the 49ers in rushing this year.  My biggest concern is Mitchell.  I had no problem taking him at 1.7 over Waddle who I'm not a fan of.

I see it different.  Shanny likes to use multiple backs and now with Lance at the goal line no thank you. I have seen Cam do that way to many times to buy into that. I could be wrong. I guess I would have to go look at all the stats from the last 5 years to get a better picture of how the ball is split. I actually hate the landing spot. I don't just not like it. I hate it.  I did look at last year and that shows a pretty good split between all the backs some of that might be injury. I'm guessing if you look at the last 5 years the picture would look the same but I'm not going to actually take the time to do that.  Okay, I'll post the last 5 years of stats so we can all look. Looking at the last 5 years 2016 and 2017 Shanny used Hyde as a bell cow back but 2018-2020 for sure has been a committee.  No thanks and double no because of Lance. Hyde is a much different back then Sermon.  I love that they both are Ohio State guys though. :)

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2020/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2019/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2019/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2017/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2016/REG

Edited by osubuckeyeman
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1 hour ago, osubuckeyeman said:

I see it different.  Shanny likes to use multiple backs and now with Lance at the goal line no thank you. I have seen Cam do that way to many times to buy into that. I could be wrong. I guess I would have to go look at all the stats from the last 5 years to get a better picture of how the ball is split. I actually hate the landing spot. I don't just not like it. I hate it.  I did look at last year and that shows a pretty good split between all the backs some of that might be injury. I'm guessing if you look at the last 5 years the picture would look the same but I'm not going to actually take the time to do that.  Okay, I'll post the last 5 years of stats so we can all look. Looking at the last 5 years 2016 and 2017 Shanny used Hyde as a bell cow back but 2018-2020 for sure has been a committee.  No thanks and double no because of Lance. Hyde is a much different back then Sermon.  I love that they both are Ohio State guys though. :)

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2020/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2019/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2019/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2017/REG

https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2016/REG

Barfield’s yards created just came out. Sermon ran 70% zone runs inside/outside… he also studied Shanahan’s offense at OU because their scheme was so similar. He’s gonna eat and you’re gonna be wrong. This is more Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman than it is any of the #### he’s slung at the wall in San Fran so far.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Iceman03 said:

Barfield’s yards created just came out. Sermon ran 70% zone runs inside/outside… he also studied Shanahan’s offense at OU because their scheme was so similar. He’s gonna eat and you’re gonna be wrong. This is more Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman than it is any of the #### he’s slung at the wall in San Fran so far.

Guess we will find out. Because when you make it to the Super Bowl you do NOT run the same running scheme and philosophy, Yes. It's a little bit of sarcasm.

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13 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Guess we will find out. Because when you make it to the Super Bowl you do NOT run the same running scheme and philosophy, Yes. It's a little bit of sarcasm.

Last year they used a specific back each week.  The variation was totally due to injury.  Mostert was the guy when healthy.  Then Coleman then Wilson.  When Mostert got healthy it went back to Mostert until he was reinjured.  SF traded up for Sermon.  I don't think the system is for committees but when you don't have a bell cow that is what happens.  I think Sermon will be given the chance to be a bell cow.  

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13 minutes ago, Gally said:

Last year they used a specific back each week.  The variation was totally due to injury.  Mostert was the guy when healthy.  Then Coleman then Wilson.  When Mostert got healthy it went back to Mostert until he was reinjured.  SF traded up for Sermon.  I don't think the system is for committees but when you don't have a bell cow that is what happens.  I think Sermon will be given the chance to be a bell cow.  

Sounds logical.

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Sounds logical.

Been my take on this situation the whole time as well....as a dynasty Mostert/Wilson owner and recent drafter of Sermon at 1.8. So, I both have experience with this backfield and blinding bias by my RB roster situation. ;) 

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  • JohnnyU changed the title to Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers

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