Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Trey Sermon, Colts (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Foosball God
Foos
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't think so but I'm one of the ones drafting him whenever/wherever I can. I was hoping at least one RB would emerge as a viable option after the consensus big 3 this year and I like him a *lot* more than a lot of the WRs in that range. I was already moving him up quickly before he got drafted in SF, which I had called the best RB landing spot. I try to do as much research as I can handle on the incoming rookies prior to the NFL draft, but Sermon had been a bit of a blind spot for awhile until about 2 or 3 weeks before the draft when I finally dove into his profile and came away surprised and impressed. Then he landed. You could show me the Gray's Sports Almanac from 2025 that shows D Smith as the next Marvin Harrison and I'd still be tempted to take Sermon first (assuming I didn't get to see his stats).
That does *not* mean I think Sermon is any kind of lock, but they moved up to get him and I think he will earn a big role with lots of upside. But even if he has a "lead in a committee" floor, I can actually use that on my rosters more than another WR that I will be required to sit a stud for in order to make room in my lineup.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I've seen him go late 1st round (1.08, 1.09, and 1.11) in my 3 non-devy dynasty leagues.
Foosball God
Foos
JohnnyU
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Bateman went at 1.10 and E. Moore at 1.12.
I'll admit R. Moore was a bit of a homer pick (I'm a Cards fan and about half the league is). But I also think if R. Moore hits, he could be huge - lots of short screens and backfield passes. I really see them trying to get him the ball a lot.
Also, my team is pretty decent (Henry, Akers, Gibson, Gaskin, DJ at RB and Adams, Golladay, Kupp, Reagor, Shenault at WR) so I could afford to take the risk on drafting some guys that could really be big if they hit.
Glad it worked out for you and I honestly would have taken them in the reverse order that you did.
Same and he went 7/8 in all 6 of my FFPC drafts so this is normal. I did two non-FFPC regular PPR drafts and he went 5 and 10.I took Sermon at 1.8 in FFPC
But the way Kutta played it was actually perfect and you and I would have likely messed it up by taking Sermon with the first pick and then not getting one of those WR's, if you wanted one of them.
Who would you take ahead of him? It's a gosh darn grand canyon dropoff after the first 6-7 players this year.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No it isn't. The drop off starts at 1.10. Chase, Harris, Pitts, ETN, Williams, Waddle, Smith, Lawrence, Bateman. Some could argue for Lance, Marshall, and E Moore too. Some could argue Carter over Sermon as well. To me that is a toss up.
This is how I see it in 1QB leagues. Could reasonably argue for Sermon over the Alabama shrimps as well.
Foosball God
Foos
There is always someone that needs a QB, Lawrence has got enough hype to be in that range.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No way would I take Sermon over Lawrence or either of the Alabama WRs no matter what the format. I would have a hard time taking him over Lance (even in a 1 qb league). I wouldn't fault anyone taking him over E Moore or Marshall but may end up even regretting that.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I traded Fitzpatrick/Heinicke & Jacobs for 1.11 and 4.11 while it was on the clock to take Sermon (I have Mostert). I am not a fan of Jacobs and see a drop off and figured it was worth moving him to sure up the SF backfield. I also really like Sermon and was trying to move Jacobs for the pick on the clock starting at 1.06 and it finally hit for the 1.11 and Sermon was still there for me. I think it was well worth it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
His value should be between 1.10 - 2.02. I feel anything earlier than 1.10 is too high in start 1qb leagues. Even lower in SF.
facook
Footballguy
Who did you have at QB already. Debating Trey Lance over Sermon and some of these wrs in a 1QB for the same reason - BPA. But I already have Lamar so I'm torn.
Which player do you think is the best? select that guy regardless of your roster. The goal is to hit on the pick and you have the best chance of doing that by taking the player you think is the best. If you honestly have them tied then need should be the tie break.
Nero
Footballguy
What is not to love about the landing spot? The 49ers were already a run heavy team and have now drafted a running QB and that only helps the running game. Wayne Gallman leads the backfield in career carries with 338. Gallman could be cut with no cap hit. Mostert's cap hit if he is cut is less the a half million, and they would save 2.5. He is competing with two undrafted free agents(Mostert, Jeff Wilson), a 4th round pick (Gallman) and a 6th round pick (Elijah Mitchell). From a talent perspective, Wilson and Gallman are no threat. Mostert has proven he can play, but he is 29 years old and injury prone. Looking at the landscape, I fully expect him to lead the 49ers in rushing this year. My biggest concern is Mitchell. I had no problem taking him at 1.7 over Waddle who I'm not a fan of.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Apple Juice
Footballguy
I think the narrative that Smith is in a tier above Sermon is already weakening and Sermon will continue to rise over the summer, especially if Sermon has a great preseason and/or other SF running backs drop out of the picture.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Shawnky
Footballguy
Barfield’s yards created just came out. Sermon ran 70% zone runs inside/outside… he also studied Shanahan’s offense at OU because their scheme was so similar. He’s gonna eat and you’re gonna be wrong. This is more Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman than it is any of the #### he’s slung at the wall in San Fran so far.I see it different. Shanny likes to use multiple backs and now with Lance at the goal line no thank you. I have seen Cam do that way to many times to buy into that. I could be wrong. I guess I would have to go look at all the stats from the last 5 years to get a better picture of how the ball is split. I actually hate the landing spot. I don't just not like it. I hate it. I did look at last year and that shows a pretty good split between all the backs some of that might be injury. I'm guessing if you look at the last 5 years the picture would look the same but I'm not going to actually take the time to do that. Okay, I'll post the last 5 years of stats so we can all look. Looking at the last 5 years 2016 and 2017 Shanny used Hyde as a bell cow back but 2018-2020 for sure has been a committee. No thanks and double no because of Lance. Hyde is a much different back then Sermon. I love that they both are Ohio State guys though.
https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2020/REG
https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2019/REG
https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2019/REG
https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2017/REG
https://www.49ers.com/team/stats/2016/REG
Last year they used a specific back each week. The variation was totally due to injury. Mostert was the guy when healthy. Then Coleman then Wilson. When Mostert got healthy it went back to Mostert until he was reinjured. SF traded up for Sermon. I don't think the system is for committees but when you don't have a bell cow that is what happens. I think Sermon will be given the chance to be a bell cow.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Been my take on this situation the whole time as well....as a dynasty Mostert/Wilson owner and recent drafter of Sermon at 1.8. So, I both have experience with this backfield and blinding bias by my RB roster situation.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Totally agree that last year played out this way... but does an injury free season equate to bellcow usage or more of a 60/40 split kind of thing (which is kind of what the split looked like when everyone was healthy)? Even assuming he takes over as the most heavily used member of the backfield, it's hard to see him being a touch monster like guys in the top tiers. Other than Hyde in 2017, who got 240 carries (59 rec's), no RB has seen more than 153 carries during Shanahan's tenure in SF.
That said... some San Fran RB stats under Shanahan.
Rushes by RB/total team attempts (team rush rank)
- 2020: 395/437 (14th)
- 2019: 424/498 (2nd)
- 2018: 364/423 (11th)
- 2017: 358/408 (22nd)
Targets to RB's/% team overall targets under Shanahan:
- 2020: 144 (24%)
- 2019: 111 (21%)
- 2018: 107 (21%)
- 2017: 166 (28%)
So, just for
's projection scenarios using the avg stats of rookies drafted in the 2nd rd from 2007-2020 where: ypc = 4.3, run TD% = 0.031, catch % = 72 (TS career catch %), ypr = 8.2, catch TD% = 0.03- Low (40/40/20 RBBC)
154/662/5 run 37/52/303/1 receiving
[*]Mid (60/40)
231/993/7 run 55/76/451/1.7 receiving
[*]High (70/30)
270/1161/8 run 66/92/543/2 receiving
This is just a sanity check based on historical RB performances from 2nd rd RB's; it's what a full year of his production could look like to help baseline against other players, not a 2021 projection.
I can see TS having a bit higher ypc and TD rate, but I'm kind of thinking the Mid level might be close to his ceiling based on the opportunity. To hit the Mid level you have to assume: 1) he takes the lead role, 2) he matches the most ever carries Shanahan has given a back in SF, 3) his target share matches his rushing share. That's a lot.
I still like him... and I still don't know where to take him, hah.
(ps - Hyde's 2017 stats: 240/938/8 run 59/88/350/0 receiving)
Last edited by a moderator:
Shawnky
Footballguy
We don’t know that yet. He’s similar in size. Here’s to wishful thinking.He’s no Portis.
rockaction
Footballguy
I am happy for those that got Sermon. I had a trade going during the time of the 1.10 that included a next year's first, the 2.08, and a reasonable player (probably Mims or Ruggs). I unfortunately fell asleep (our draft was a slow draft, and it was right around 6:30 or so Pacific, so a nap was in order) and the guy went ahead and picked after responding to me and getting no response back. Sermon was gone at the 1.11. :(
I hope he does well. It'll really shore up Waldman's credibility as a film grinder (not that he needs it) and just make for some interesting football.
I hope he does well. It'll really shore up Waldman's credibility as a film grinder (not that he needs it) and just make for some interesting football.
Ya, he’s not Portis but he’s gonna get every opportunity to be the lead back workhorse. I would expect a Freeman/Coleman like split for him and Mostert if SF gets what they want out of him.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
There isn't a back in this class that was as good as Portis coming into the league. Before he put on all the muscle/mass for Gibbs he was so explosive...so good...that 5 TD game vs Chiefs...man I loved watching him....
