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Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers


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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Gally said:

Last year they used a specific back each week.  The variation was totally due to injury.  Mostert was the guy when healthy.  Then Coleman then Wilson.  When Mostert got healthy it went back to Mostert until he was reinjured.  SF traded up for Sermon.  I don't think the system is for committees but when you don't have a bell cow that is what happens.  I think Sermon will be given the chance to be a bell cow.  

Totally agree that last year played out this way... but does an injury free season equate to bellcow usage or more of a 60/40 split kind of thing (which is kind of what the split looked like when everyone was healthy)? Even assuming he takes over as the most heavily used member of the backfield, it's hard to see him being a touch monster like guys in the top tiers. Other than Hyde in 2017, who got 240 carries (59 rec's), no RB has seen more than 153 carries during Shanahan's tenure in SF.

That said... some San Fran RB stats under Shanahan. 

Rushes by RB/total team attempts (team rush rank)

  • 2020: 395/437 (14th)
  • 2019: 424/498 (2nd)
  • 2018: 364/423 (11th)
  • 2017: 358/408 (22nd)

*Average of 385 RB rushes/yr under Shanahan.

Targets to RB's/% team overall targets under Shanahan:

  • 2020: 144 (24%)
  • 2019: 111 (21%)
  • 2018: 107 (21%)
  • 2017: 166 (28%)

*Average of 132 RB targets/yr under Shanahan.

So, just for 🙂's projection scenarios using the avg stats of rookies drafted in the 2nd rd from 2007-2020 where: ypc = 4.3, run TD% = 0.031, catch % = 72 (TS career catch %), ypr = 8.2, catch TD% = 0.03

  • Low (40/40/20 RBBC)
    • 154/662/5 run  37/52/303/1 receiving
  • Mid (60/40)
    • 231/993/7 run  55/76/451/1.7 receiving
  • High (70/30)
    • 270/1161/8 run  66/92/543/2 receiving

This is just a sanity check based on historical RB performances from 2nd rd RB's; it's what a full year of his production could look like to help baseline against other players, not a 2021 projection. 

I can see TS having a bit higher ypc and TD rate, but I'm kind of thinking the Mid level might be close to his ceiling based on the opportunity. To hit the Mid level you have to assume: 1) he takes the lead role, 2) he matches the most ever carries Shanahan has given a back in SF, 3) his target share matches his rushing share. That's a lot.

I still like him... and I still don't know where to take him, hah.

(ps - Hyde's 2017 stats: 240/938/8 run 59/88/350/0 receiving)

Edited by Adso
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I am happy for those that got Sermon. I had a trade going during the time of the 1.10 that included a next year's first, the 2.08, and a reasonable player (probably Mims or Ruggs). I unfortunately fell asleep (our draft was a slow draft, and it was right around 6:30 or so Pacific, so a nap was in order) and the guy went ahead and picked after responding to me and getting no response back. Sermon was gone at the 1.11. :(

I hope he does well. It'll really shore up Waldman's credibility as a film grinder (not that he needs it) and just make for some interesting football.

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8 hours ago, Shawnky said:

Why do I get the feeling he's the next Clinton Portis?  The last great Shanny back I drafted as a rookie in dynasty.

Ya, he’s not Portis but he’s gonna get every opportunity to be the lead back workhorse. I would expect a Freeman/Coleman like split for  him and Mostert if SF gets what they want out of him. 

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6 hours ago, Shawnky said:

We don’t know that yet. He’s similar in size.  Here’s to wishful thinking. 

There isn't a back in this class that was as good as Portis coming into the league. Before he put on all the muscle/mass for Gibbs he was so explosive...so good...that 5 TD game vs Chiefs...man I loved watching him....

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Adso said:

Totally agree that last year played out this way... but does an injury free season equate to bellcow usage or more of a 60/40 split kind of thing (which is kind of what the split looked like when everyone was healthy)? Even assuming he takes over as the most heavily used member of the backfield, it's hard to see him being a touch monster like guys in the top tiers. Other than Hyde in 2017, who got 240 carries (59 rec's), no RB has seen more than 153 carries during Shanahan's tenure in SF.

That said... some San Fran RB stats under Shanahan. 

Rushes by RB/total team attempts (team rush rank)

  • 2020: 395/437 (14th)
  • 2019: 424/498 (2nd)
  • 2018: 364/423 (11th)
  • 2017: 358/408 (22nd)

*Average of 385 RB rushes/yr under Shanahan.

Targets to RB's/% team overall targets under Shanahan:

  • 2020: 144 (24%)
  • 2019: 111 (21%)
  • 2018: 107 (21%)
  • 2017: 166 (28%)

*Average of 132 RB targets/yr under Shanahan.

So, just for 🙂's projection scenarios using the avg stats of rookies drafted in the 2nd rd from 2007-2020 where: ypc = 4.3, run TD% = 0.031, catch % = 72 (TS career catch %), ypr = 8.2, catch TD% = 0.03

  • Low (40/40/20 RBBC)
    • 154/662/5 run  37/52/303/1 receiving
  • Mid (60/40)
    • 231/993/7 run  55/76/451/1.7 receiving
  • High (70/30)
    • 270/1161/8 run  66/92/543/2 receiving

This is just a sanity check based on historical RB performances from 2nd rd RB's; it's what a full year of his production could look like to help baseline against other players, not a 2021 projection. 

I can see TS having a bit higher ypc and TD rate, but I'm kind of thinking the Mid level might be close to his ceiling based on the opportunity. To hit the Mid level you have to assume: 1) he takes the lead role, 2) he matches the most ever carries Shanahan has given a back in SF, 3) his target share matches his rushing share. That's a lot.

I still like him... and I still don't know where to take him, hah.

(ps - Hyde's 2017 stats: 240/938/8 run 59/88/350/0 receiving)

Good info but the only thing I would add is that they never had a bell cow type of back.  If the pieces are there for a committee because nobody is good enough to be the guy this is a likely outcome.  SF traded up to get a guy they think can be the guy.  Time will tell if that is true.

Edited by Gally
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20 hours ago, Gally said:

Last year they used a specific back each week.  The variation was totally due to injury.  Mostert was the guy when healthy.  Then Coleman then Wilson.  When Mostert got healthy it went back to Mostert until he was reinjured.  SF traded up for Sermon.  I don't think the system is for committees but when you don't have a bell cow that is what happens.  I think Sermon will be given the chance to be a bell cow.  

Sure hope so. I love my Buckeye players. I will be rooting for him.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

There isn't a back in this class that was as good as Portis coming into the league. Before he put on all the muscle/mass for Gibbs he was so explosive...so good...that 5 TD game vs Chiefs...man I loved watching him....

There’s no way of knowing this at this point.   The top 3 backs were drafted in spots before Portia and Sermon was only drafted a round after.  Not sure the # of spots and don’t really care looking it up.  But yes, that Chiefs game was amazing. 

Edited by Shawnky
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On 5/18/2021 at 11:57 PM, facook said:

Who did you have at QB already.  Debating Trey Lance over Sermon and some of these wrs in a 1QB for the same reason - BPA.  But I already have Lamar so I'm torn.  

I did exactly this. Already took Sermon at 1.10 in one league and staring at him 1.12 in 14 team league but went Lance. Our league is 1qb but qb friendly and I think he has supreme upside.

Like you I had good qb (Dak, Rodgers) and traded Dak while OTC in draft for RB.  Otherwise would have prob have taken Semon again. But I’m believer in Lance and want to root for him. 

Sermon ended up going 1.14.  

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On 5/20/2021 at 9:51 AM, Gally said:

Good info but the only thing I would add is that they never had a bell cow type of back.  If the pieces are there for a committee because nobody is good enough to be the guy this is a likely outcome.  SF traded up to get a guy they think can be the guy.  Time will tell if that is true.

And this is the great dream of the guy who drafts every 49ers RB.....

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Posted (edited)
On 5/3/2021 at 9:45 AM, Faust said:

Hey @JohnnyU - can we get a thread title update on this one? 

We are less interested now in Trey Sermon transferring from Oklahoma to Ohio St. and are more interested in his dynasty & redraft prospects moving forward.

Thanks in advance!

@JohnnyU

Edited by IHEARTFF
U
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  • JohnnyU changed the title to Trey Sermon: RB 49'ers
Posted (edited)

I changed the title.  Faust reminded me to do this, so thanks @Faust.  It's something I haven't made a priority in the past, but will do so when I see the threads I've created on the front page.

Edited by JohnnyU
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14 hours ago, Shutout said:

The door you just heard opening is for mitchell, not sermon ( helped mitchell more then sermon in this case)

I've got both in one dynasty league, along with Mostert. Why do you think Mitchell? I kind of assumed they would all just be bumped up a spot. I don't think "Gallman is the #2" holds up for too long and think it's more so just because the others are rookies and it's still very early.

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14 hours ago, Shutout said:

The door you just heard opening is for mitchell, not sermon ( helped mitchell more then sermon in this case)

This will sound stupid, but might have even helped Michael Carter.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, menobrown said:

This will sound stupid, but might have even helped Michael Carter.

No, it doesn't sound stupid. I remember half-kidding that the Jets would keep a watchful eye on the SF backfield. With Wilson out, the team will maybe carry five RBs (Mostert, Gallman, Sermon, Mitchell, Juszczyk) if they so choose. (And I think they just might. They were hurt enough last year to learn that lesson.)

Hasty they'll likely have to find something to do with if they go with Gallman over him.

Edited by rockaction
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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

No, it doesn't sound stupid. I remember half-kidding that the Jets would keep a watchful eye on the SF backfield. With Wilson out, the team will maybe carry five RBs (Mostert, Gallman, Sermon, Mitchell, Juszczyk) if they so choose.

Yes I knew you'd know what I meant, the SF to Jets pipeline is real.  The pickups by Jets of SF discards has been minimal so far but I expect them to add a few more via waivers or trade and with the reviews Mitchell's been getting super early I was for sure thinking it's possible the Jets got their hands on Mostert or Wilson-the two RB's the Jet's staff are familiar with.

And not making a joke at all but chances of all 4 of those RB's being healthy after camp seems low to me which should only help them all make the team. 

 

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

And not making a joke at all but chances of all 4 of those RB's being healthy after camp seems low to me which should only help them all make the team.

Yeah, I'm not perfect with how IR and PUP rules work, but I also agree with this.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/20/2021 at 6:27 AM, ffmail4me said:

There isn't a back in this class that was as good as Portis coming into the league. Before he put on all the muscle/mass for Gibbs he was so explosive...so good...that 5 TD game vs Chiefs...man I loved watching him....

If Sermon ran with better pad level had better footwork and lateral agility caught the ball more consistently better contact balance and vision then maybe we could compare him to Portis.

I do think Sermon does most of those things well by the way just not as well as Portis in his prime.

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Quote

NBC Sports Bay Area's Jennifer Lee Chan reports 49ers RB Trey Sermon is "ahead of the curve" at OTAs.

With Raheem Mostert limited for precautionary reasons and Jeff Wilson (knee) absent for the next 4-6 months, Sermon was given all he could handle in first-team reps, "catching passes from Jimmy Garoppolo as well as taking handoffs." He unsurprisingly appeared "ahead of the curve" after studying Kyle Shanahan's outside zone scheme before transferring to Ohio State (a similar offense) and finishing with rushing lines of 29/331/2 and 31/193/1 on national television. San Francisco's backfield averaged the third-most fantasy points as a unit last year and can undoubtedly eclipse that mark between the machination of Sermon, Mostert, Wilson, Wayne Gallman, 2020 UDFA JaMycal Hasty, and 2021 sixth-rounder Elijah Mitchell this season. Unfortunately, it's Sermon who continues to be drafted at a premium (in a timeshare nonetheless) as the overall RB28 ahead of Mostert (RB29).

SOURCE: NBC Sports Bay Area

Jun 13, 2021, 10:26 PM ET

 

 

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6 hours ago, DA RAIDERS said:

got sniped on wr's.  took sermon at 1.08

:sehorn: 

I didn’t get sniped on all the WRs and still went Sermon at 1.08 ;) 

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On 6/13/2021 at 3:57 PM, DA RAIDERS said:

got sniped on wr's.  took sermon at 1.08

:sehorn: 

And now you get to cheer for a 49er! I feel like this is a healing between the fan bases. A coming together for a mutual cause.

:wub: 

Jokes aside, I like the kid & think he’s immediately the best RB on the roster. He’s also a great fit for the Shanny system. I tried to trade into 1.11 to get him & failed. :doh: 

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11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

And now you get to cheer for a 49er! I feel like this is a healing between the fan bases. A coming together for a mutual cause.

:wub: 

Jokes aside, I like the kid & think he’s immediately the best RB on the roster. He’s also a great fit for the Shanny system. I tried to trade into 1.11 to get him & failed. :doh: 

most fights i ever saw, at a raider game, was 9ers/raiders.  

fantasy is funny.  it does make you cheer for people, that you ordinarily can't stand.

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11 minutes ago, DA RAIDERS said:

most fights i ever saw, at a raider game, was 9ers/raiders.  

fantasy is funny.  it does make you cheer for people, that you ordinarily can't stand.

By comparison, one of the best times I’ve ever had in my life was in the Black Hole at a Raider’s Game. I didn’t wear any Niners gear, and was asked why I wasn’t wearing Raiders stuff a few times. To one of them I sheepishly said “cuz I’m a niners fan” and the response I got was “yeah, smart not to wear your Niners stuff” and dude bought me a beer for cheering for his team. 

I had a blast. That’s an insane experience. 

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21 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

By comparison, one of the best times I’ve ever had in my life was in the Black Hole at a Raider’s Game. I didn’t wear any Niners gear, and was asked why I wasn’t wearing Raiders stuff a few times. To one of them I sheepishly said “cuz I’m a niners fan” and the response I got was “yeah, smart not to wear your Niners stuff” and dude bought me a beer for cheering for his team. 

I had a blast. That’s an insane experience. 

no no...i had a blast.  all just part of the entertainment.  raider games are a lot of fun.  i'm gonna miss that dump.  due to the teams performance on the field, the last 20 or so years, the parking lot was often the best part of the game.

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2 minutes ago, DA RAIDERS said:

no no...i had a blast.  all just part of the entertainment.  raider games are a lot of fun.  i'm gonna miss that dump.  due to the teams performance on the field, the last 20 or so years, the parking lot was often the best part of the game.

Oh the tailgating was amazing. I ate so well that day. I was also hammered loooong before I got in, which saved a ton of $ on $14 Coors. :lol:

honestly I barely remember taking BART home back to Hayward. 

I’m really bummed that Oakland is losing all of its sports teams in my lifetime. I never thought I’d see the day. No doubt the Raiders new stadium is awesome, but it’d be more awesome at Jack London Square. 

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ESPN’s Nick Wagoner believes Trey Sermon “looks poised to make an impact as a rookie.”

With Jeff Wilson (knee) out 4-6 months and Raheem Mostert limited, the 49ers got an extended look at Sermon with the starters this offseason. Sermon’s pass catching made a “strong first impression” on the coaching staff, something Wagoner expects to get him on the field early. The Wilson timetable and Mostert’s knee history have Sermon as one of the top running back hedges. The rookie third-rounder could open the year in a committee if he carries his strong OTAs into training camp.

SOURCE: ESPN

Jun 26, 2021, 11:42 AM ET

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Shaq90 said:

I don't see it with Sermon. Not all these kids are going to be superstars.

I mean he has to earn time against the likes of Mostert and Gallman... not exactly superstar competition.

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1 hour ago, Shawnky said:

I'll trust Shanahan on this one.

I trust throwing lots of darts. 
 

signed,

Mostert/Sermon/Wilson owner

;) 

Edited by joey
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1 hour ago, Shawnky said:

I'll trust Shanahan on this one.

Same. Mostert is fast but fragile. Sermon’s path to success doesn’t have a kot of impediments, and he’s built for the gig. His history shows he’s a great fit for Shanahan’s system, so it seems almost willfully ignorant for someone to come into a topic where all offseason news has been positive with some half cocked negative statement. Mostert hasn’t been great in short yardage,& Sermon is a great fit for that as well. 

I agree - imma trust the coach who’s known for success in the run game with the RB he hand picked for that role.

some people simply like to be contrary for the sake of being contrary.  Funny how those types never say a single thing to support their contrary opinions.:shrug: 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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3 minutes ago, joey said:

I trust throwing lots of darts. 
 

signed,

Mostert/Sermon/Wilson owner

;) 

Even if it’s RBBC, given Shanahan‘s track record you ought to do well with at least one of those guys.

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Even if it’s RBBC, given Shanahan‘s track record you ought to do well with at least one of those guys.

Short rosters for that FFPC team where I own all 3 and I will say that I wasn’t upset at all when I heard that Wilson might miss the first X games, so I can move him to an IR slot for a bit and not waste 3 slots on SF RBs. 

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I looked back through Shanahan's history going back to his first gig as offensive coordinator in 2008.  In that entire span, he's had a 300 carry rusher once (Alfred Morris in 2012).  More recently, he's leaned harder into a RBBC.  His first year with the  49ers is the only season a RB has had over 200 carries -  in 2018, 2019, and 2020,  the leading rusher has had 153, 137, and 123 carries, respectively.  So, starting in 2017, the leader in carries has looked like this:

2017: 240

2018: 153

2019: 137 (tied - Coleman & Mosters both had 137)

2020: 123 

There are external factors, such as injuries, of course, but this situation is beginning to remind me a lot of the Patriots.  The Patriots believe deeply in the running game and so owners have almost always overdrafted their running backs in the hope that someone takes over and becomes a 1st or 2nd round value that they drafted in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th.  However, this has rarely ever worked out.  The 49ers are similar. Shanahan is an excellent offensive mind and will almost certainly produce a good running game, but that team (or real NFL) success doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy success for an individual player.  The 49ers have Mostert, Wilson, Sermon, Gallman, Hasty, and Mitchell. They re-signed Wilson. He is hurt but will be back this season (he had meniscus surgery at the end of May and has a 4-6 month timeline). Gallman was actually quite good last year (4.6 YPC behind a poor line)  and they drafted Mitchell as well as Sermon.  Of course, there's also the question of how much Lance plays and the fact that he's such a good runner and may take some goal-line opportunities.  

I think the 49ers will have an excellent running game this season but they have a lot of depth and it's highly unlikely that anyone runs away with the job.  I don't know that either of Mostert or Sermon will be great values, even with an injury to the other.

My projection for Sermon:

122 carries, 549 yards, 4 touchdowns, 25 targets, 18 receptions, 0  touchdowns 

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13 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

I looked back through Shanahan's history going back to his first gig as offensive coordinator in 2008.  In that entire span, he's had a 300 carry rusher once (Alfred Morris in 2012).  More recently, he's leaned harder into a RBBC.  His first year with the  49ers is the only season a RB has had over 200 carries -  in 2018, 2019, and 2020,  the leading rusher has had 153, 137, and 123 carries, respectively.  So, starting in 2017, the leader in carries has looked like this:

2017: 240

2018: 153

2019: 137 (tied - Coleman & Mosters both had 137)

2020: 123 

There are external factors, such as injuries, of course, but this situation is beginning to remind me a lot of the Patriots.  The Patriots believe deeply in the running game and so owners have almost always overdrafted their running backs in the hope that someone takes over and becomes a 1st or 2nd round value that they drafted in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th.  However, this has rarely ever worked out.  The 49ers are similar. Shanahan is an excellent offensive mind and will almost certainly produce a good running game, but that team (or real NFL) success doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy success for an individual player.  The 49ers have Mostert, Wilson, Sermon, Gallman, Hasty, and Mitchell. They re-signed Wilson. He is hurt but will be back this season (he had meniscus surgery at the end of May and has a 4-6 month timeline). Gallman was actually quite good last year (4.6 YPC behind a poor line)  and they drafted Mitchell as well as Sermon.  Of course, there's also the question of how much Lance plays and the fact that he's such a good runner and may take some goal-line opportunities.  

I think the 49ers will have an excellent running game this season but they have a lot of depth and it's highly unlikely that anyone runs away with the job.  I don't know that either of Mostert or Sermon will be great values, even with an injury to the other.

My projection for Sermon:

122 carries, 549 yards, 4 touchdowns, 25 targets, 18 receptions, 0  touchdowns 

I don't think Shanny has had a RB the last few years he trusted in the lead role.  Last year I think he showed that Mostert was the guy.  Every game he was healthy he got the bulk of the carries (unless he got reinjured in game)  then Coleman until he got hurt and same with McKinnon and Wilson.  Going into each week it was clear who the lead back was.  I think that will be the way he will operate this year.  Not sure who will start the season as the lead guy but I think Sermon takes over by the end of the season.

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

I don't think Shanny has had a RB the last few years he trusted in the lead role.  Last year I think he showed that Mostert was the guy.  Every game he was healthy he got the bulk of the carries (unless he got reinjured in game)  then Coleman until he got hurt and same with McKinnon and Wilson.  Going into each week it was clear who the lead back was.  I think that will be the way he will operate this year.  Not sure who will start the season as the lead guy but I think Sermon takes over by the end of the season.

I get that narrative but I'd be surprised. Mostert's season high for carries was 17.  I think Shanahan wants to use multiple backs and be able to show defenses different looks/styles (speed with Mostert, power/grinder with Sermon etc) and has the depth to do it. This is a good team that is almost certainly playing with an eye towards the postseason and I think Shanahan will also prioritize keeping his backs fresh/healthy, especially in a 17 game regular season.

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3 minutes ago, TS Garp said:

I get that narrative but I'd be surprised. Mostert's season high for carries was 17.  I think Shanahan wants to use multiple backs and be able to show defenses different looks/styles (speed with Mostert, power/grinder with Sermon etc) and has the depth to do it. This is a good team that is almost certainly playing with an eye towards the postseason and I think Shanahan will also prioritize keeping his backs fresh/healthy, especially in a 17 game regular season.

Keeping RB's fresh and healthy doesn’t preclude them from being quality fantasy RB's

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36 minutes ago, Gally said:

Keeping RB's fresh and healthy doesn’t preclude them from being quality fantasy RB's

Correct on all points. 

Mostert was a fantasy monster on only a few carries so long as he hits that 80 yard TD, and in their 1 cut & go system off play action, those opportunities abound. 

Sermon is also adept at that running style, and IMO he’ll he lead dog with Mostert doing his thing. Mostert isn’t a young man, and I project Sermon’s workload closer to 200 touches including at the stripe where they struggled to punch it in many times last year. 

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54 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Correct on all points. 

Mostert was a fantasy monster on only a few carries so long as he hits that 80 yard TD, and in their 1 cut & go system off play action, those opportunities abound. 

Sermon is also adept at that running style, and IMO he’ll he lead dog with Mostert doing his thing. Mostert isn’t a young man, and I project Sermon’s workload closer to 200 touches including at the stripe where they struggled to punch it in many times last year. 

That's a bug, not a feature. I will say that Gally is right to a degree about the SF backs, and TS Garp is right to a degree about the SF backs. There was, last year, a clear lead in Mostert. Then he got hurt and others filled in.

The years before that, though, it was certainly muddled. Coleman was taking starter snaps in 2019 as late as the Minnesota playoff game until he got hurt. Then Mostert had that huge day against Green Bay. I've looked at this many, many times (before I acquired Mostert in dynasty last year. I've since moved on.) and it's a lot more confusing in years prior. Then you have Atlanta, with Freeman and Coleman splitting a lot of time while Freeman was the worthwhile back to own in fantasy.

In short, there is a lot to like about the backfield for fantasy, but expectations should be tempered a bit by recent history.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

That's a bug, not a feature. I will say that Gally is right to a degree about the SF backs, and TS Garp is right to a degree about the SF backs. There was, last year, a clear lead in Mostert. Then he got hurt and others filled in.

The years before that, though, it was certainly muddled. Coleman was taking starter snaps in 2019 as late as the Minnesota playoff game until he got hurt. Then Mostert had that huge day against Green Bay. I've looked at this many, many times (before I acquired Mostert in dynasty last year. I've since moved on.) and it's a lot more confusing in years prior. Then you have Atlanta, with Freeman and Coleman splitting a lot of time while Freeman was the worthwhile back to own in fantasy.

In short, there is a lot to like about the backfield for fantasy, but expectations should be tempered a bit by recent history.

Yes, but to Gally’s point, they’ve had a hodge podge of middling RBs. The Coleman that came to SF wasn’t the same that Shanny had in ATL. 

IMO, Shanny is a hot hand guy more than a RBBC guy. Mostert was the man, but others came on to give him a breather. Then Mostert got hurt, next man up. Lather, rinse, repeat all the way to the rookie at one point. 

Most of the backs Shanny’s had in SF have been incomplete. He hasn’t had anyone with the build/speed/power as Sermon, from what I've seen of his college play. 

There’s a legitimate opportunity for Sermon to take a 60-70% touch share in this backfield with Mostert getting work in. I don’t see another back well suited to short yardage or GL work on the roster. Mostert’s not effective in that role at all, and honestly I wouldn’t want them to try it again because he’s a little fragile. He’s best used in the zone blocking scheme where he hits the hole untouched & gets loose for 10-80 yards. 

sermon is a banger, and I’m excited to see what he can do. I think he’s a 180-200 touch guy this year. 

I’ve been wrong before but if he’s there anywhere past the 7th in redraft I’m likely gonna take a flier on him as a 3rd or 4th RB. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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From tonight’s FBG email.

”SF - Trey Sermon to make an impact

Source: ESPN.com - Nick Wagoner

San Francisco 49ers RB Trey Sermon 'looks poised to make an impact as a rookie' after making a strong first impression, especially as a receiver out of the backfield, during OTAs and minicamp, according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Raheem Mostert is excellent in the zone running game and a threat to take it to the house on any play, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and the 49ers at least have to have to split the work in the backfield, if not use him as the change of pace with Sermon coming on. Sermon should be the first 49ers running back drafted and he has league winner potential if Mostert breaks down.”

 

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