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Postponing your rookie draft due to possible big name Supplemental Draft entries? (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

Footballguy
If the NCAA season is cancelled is there a real possibility some big names like Etienne, Hubbard, Chase, Bateman, and others could enter the NFL Supplemental Draft?  If yes, then postponing your fantasy rookie draft to include such players until after the supplemental draft on July 10 is probably a wise move.  The leagues I commish have rules for the supplemental draft, but this situation could be different given the possible big names that could be in it.

Here are the supplemental draft rules from one of my leagues and with the possibility of this being a year very different from year's past, perhaps not having a league supplemental draft and include players in your regular rookie draft is the best move.  What do you think?

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Fantasy Legends 1 Supplemental Draft Rules -

Supplemental Draft: Whenever the NFL has a Supplemental Draft, Fantasy Legends I will also have their own Supplemental Draft approx. 1 week later. The FLL1 Supplemental Draft will be setup in a thread with bids made publicly in an auction style format open for approx. two days. Bids for a player can be made using the team's following season's draft picks still owned (any picks acquired/lost through trade are not eligible to be bid). You may only bid one pick (like the NFL does it). Highest bid gets the player and loses the pick that was bid. Value of the following season's picks will be based on the time frame of the NFL Supplemental Draft. If occurs during off-season or in-season between wk #1 thru #7, than the pick value will be based on the past season's standings. If occurs in-season between wk #8 thru #16, than the pick value will be based on the present season's standings. If a Supplemental player is acquired during wk. #14 thru #16 (our post-season), the player will be frozen and the team will receive a roster exemption.

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I  don't see this working well for devy leagues that have their devy draft separate from their rookie draft,  because some of these leagues still haven't had their regular rookie draft, but may have already had their devy draft and may have already traded their rookie picks  knowing what is currently in the draft pool.  To suddenly have big name players in the rookie pool makes for some unfair situations. This is a tricky situation for devy leagues that have a separate devy draft from their rookie drafts..  Some devy leagues combine their devy and rookie draft into one and IMO they aren't affected. 

Devy Leagues that have a separate devy draft from their rookie draft may be better off using their league Supplemental Draft rules in this case.  In other words,  if your Devy league already has supplemental draft rules and your devy draft is separate from your rookie draft, you're probably better off using it and not try and include any of these players in the rookie draft.

In conclusion:  If your league already has supplemental draft rules do you use it and not include big name players in your rookie draft, or include them and postpone your regular rookie draft until after the supplemental draft?    Non-Devy leagues may choose to do the latter.  Devy leagues may choose the former if they have separate devy draft from their rookie draft, for the sake of fairness.

ETA:  The NFL could even postpone their supplemental draft from July 10 until late August or September to see if the NCAA season is going to be cancelled, thus including big name players if they are eligible. 

 
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I'm personally a fan of delaying rookie drafts until everything settles down and everyone is clear on who exactly is eligible for the NFL draft and Supplemental draft  If the NCAA cancels the season or even just shortens it, I could see several guys who decided not to come out, purposefully make themselves ineligible for college (by signing with agents?) so they can enter the supplemental draft.

 
I was thinking about this recently as well.  Fortunately I don't have any early drafts, but if I did I would be starting a dialogue with my league mates now.  

It's rare that a premiere player comes in the supplemental draft. Only one that comes to mind is Josh Gordon.  But if the college season is compromised there could be multiple premiere guys coming out 

 
Honest question- why would the ncaa cancel but NFL not?
Campus dorms are like cruise ships, as one person in the COVID thread noted. You get that many young people in a place and expect this stuff not to spread like wildfire? This is a great, great question Johnny U. I hadn't even thought of it and had already spent my auction bucks on defense. I'm not sure how our league works this. 

 
Honest question- why would the ncaa cancel but NFL not?
I forgot to mention that they might come out not because of seasons being cancelled, but because of their age when they come out, the CBA, and free agency.

IOW, you might have guys come out if both are cancelled to accrue service time under the CBA, if that's the case that it does accrue (I do not know how that works). Plus, the NFL has more reasons to cancel than college, namely, the billions of dollars at stake. 

eta* I meant to say that college has more reasons to cancel than the NFL, namely, the billions of dollars the NFL stands to lose with no season played. I'm not sure college football brings in the audience the NFL does, though I could be wrong on that. 

 
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If the NCAA cancelled the football season it would not be any time soon and if it happened probably like a July sort of thing. Can't wait that long.

A player can't just choose to enter the supplemental draft, they have to lose their eligibility. Now NFL could amend their rules for such a rare circumstance but that opens up another issue of competitive balance and not sure owners could work this out among themselves. It's one thing for example to slot teams from worst to first in the normal NFL draft, it's another thing to fill up the supplemental draft with a bunch of elite prospects and give those teams a double bonus of sorts for having a horrible 2019 season. Just think a lot of teams picking later in the draft would have an issue with that kind of on the fly rule change.

Also I see zero percent chance the league would allow players that were not eligible to enter this draft, like Chase or Lawrence, to enter the league in 2019. Zero percent. If anything actually transpired to allow some players in that did not enter the regular draft it would only be for players who actually had a choice and chose to remain.

As for dynasty leagues all the leagues I play in have blind bid waivers. So if it should happen that some key players are allowed to enter the NFL draft after the rookie drafts so be it. We all have same amount of waiver money to make a bid. Don't need to delay anything or make any special rules in my leagues, would just make for some interesting blind bid waiver strategy.

 
Well as usual I guess all leagues are different. In the one I commish, we start our rookie draft about a week and a half after the NFL draft. 

So in a typical year, we don't care about the supplemental draft at all because for the possibly one or two interesting players that get added to the pool, they are simply just available for the first waiver run right before week 1.

But if there are big names that come out in a supplemental draft this year because of how atypical this thing is, then yeah maybe we would want to think about postponing our draft. 

I sent a thing out saying that I'm debating about impacts to our FF league but that we would try to mirror what the NFL does as best we can. If they postpone the draft we postpone, etc. But not sure what to think about this supplemental draft wrinkle.

 
Honest question- why would the ncaa cancel but NFL not? 
First of all I think it's unlikely that one is 100% shut down and other other has a "normal" season. But I think there are a lot of things that go into the slim chance the NCAA is cancelled and the NFL season happens.  Both are big business but one has to at least try and operate under umbrella of a university and a lot of factors play into that.

The NCAA tournament cancelled their season. The NBA suspended theirs. NBA season may never continue but when they don't have to consider the student athlete or operate under umbrella of a university you just have more leeway to alter the schedule, play in different cities/venues,  just have a few more options to work with IMO. But say for instance universities are not allowing students back on campus in the fall. I would see no way they can attempt to play football were the NFL would still try to find a way or delay the season out a little.

 
Campus dorms are like cruise ships, as one person in the COVID thread noted. You get that many young people in a place and expect this stuff not to spread like wildfire? This is a great, great question Johnny U. I hadn't even thought of it and had already spent my auction bucks on defense. I'm not sure how our league works this. 
I give credit to Boone22 from my Fantasy Legends 1 league, brought it to my attention.  I just expanded on it.

 
Honest question- why would the ncaa cancel but NFL not? 
I don't think that's the only concern I would have if I were a premiere prospect.  I think there are some schoolsthat are not even close to starting their offseason training and preparations.  One might worry about whether or not they will have time to put their best foot forward?  In CA our schools are closed until at least june. Or what if we get through this wave only to have it pop up again in the fall and they have to close it down early? 

If I were a premiere prospect with all that uncertainty I would consider just taking the sure thing and go pro now.  I don't think it would take a lot of justification.  I have heard it's just as simple as hiring an agent because that means you lose your eligibility.  

Either way I do think we should have a much better idea by 6/1. I don't think there would be much harm in pushing it back a little.  Obviously up to the league to decide but I would hate to have ETN or Chubba just go to bidding bucks.  And if tie breaker is standings that's a huge advantage. I would imagine some would empty bank for that.  Imagine having 1.1 and then having chance to get ETN with no one being able to out bid you. 

 
Teams like the Dolphins that have a stockpile of 2021 picks would be completely screwed if their future potential player targets were available through a supplemental draft.  You can't just rob a team of their draft capital like that.  I've heard similar idiotic things said about future rookie drafts. 

 
Weighted lottery for picks that would become available in your league’s next draft that can’t be traded yet. That way all get a shot at bidding to give up that first rounder.

Not a free additional pick.

 
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We are currently discussing this in a league I am in.  So here is an idea.  Please expand on it, shoot it down, whatever.  I would just like feedback

It is a $500 league.  I am analyzing the logic of this idea with the assumption that Etienne is the only star coming out.  

Every team would have $100 (real money) for a blind bid.  Tie goes to the team that finished worse last year.  You can use the $ to trade for players or picks as well as use them in the blind bid for Etienne.  If you trade your $100 (or any portion) for a player you owe it to the team you traded with (real money).  If that team uses it to pick up Etienne, all of the money spent by the blind bid winner goes into that years winners pool to be paid out at the end of the year.  If it isn't used, the owner keeps the money.

Shoot it down, build it up.  I want to hear opinions
Sounds like that opens up the door even more to tanking, for cash. 

If my team isn't good but I have a few good players, what's to keep me from trading good players for cash and just keeping the money? 

 
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The league I assist commish has the 8th round in mid August, a few months after the 7th is complete. you might find the occasional good player available, last year I was able to pick up Waller in a similar format, this year you could pretty much guarantee Etienne would be that top pick. These picks aren't tradable until after they're made, so the worst team is probably benefiting big time this year.  So be it. (Fwiw, this is also a decent way to be sure everyone can start a kicker, DT, or other positions they might not carry depth and players lose jobs)

If not for those, I'd probably advocate for following the NFL rules, teams forfeit future picks. 

 
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Here's a scenario... asking for a friend

My league will follow normal FAAB. FAAB reset at the beginning of the regular season, so I can spend everything post draft without issue.

Usually I go all in on UDGA.from my rookie draft, leaving myself with 25% FAAB for random roster moves as guys get cut and so forth. 

Not sure what to do this year...  My strong opinion is that the NCAA season will go on in some shape or form as their players are likely to be unaffected. To prevent those who cant help themselves from derailing the point of my post, I'll stop there, and I won't respond to replies focusing on the wrong thing here. 

That being said, I dont think a huge number of players will go into the supplemental draft. In fact, many of them I would be interested in wouldnt even be eligible.

ETN has been mentioned, but he stayed in school due to a 2nd round grade... I cant imagine it being any higher in the supplemental draft, if not maybe lower. 

So... What are you all doing/what would you do in my scenario? Go all in on your UDFAs or hold back? 

I'm likely going to go all in, but save closer to 50% for a possible supplemental draftee. Curious to see what others think. 

When is it?  I also think the season goes forward, but I have read that they might delay the season. That might put us back to square one where some talent foregoes their last season.  

I do think we have a much better idea by 6/1, which is when they usually set the deadline,  I think. If it is sooner rather than later I would just do what I normally do.  If someone like Etienne goes to supplemental draft there's likely to be a team that will have enough to outbid you even if you saved 50 percent. 

By the way...if Etienne really went back because of a second round grade he is an idiot.  Such short shelf lives on RBs. Leaving early means better chance at a good second contract and we just saw how hard it is to crack the 1st round. 

 
Late 1st/early 2ND was too low?  LOL. And the NFL will always be there?  Oh boy.   And what..His ability to go back for his degree will expire? This guy missed the boat.  Hopefully he proves me wrong and stays healthy.  

 
NFL wont allow players who chose to go back.to college to enter the supplemental draft...

you are still only eligible if your last season is in jeopardy due to suspension, grades, or hardship not related to COVID. so at least we can put this to bed!
You need to cite this instead of just declaring it over. These are behind-the-scenes sources saying this, not anything official. Granted, it gives much, much more weight to the thinking that COVID won't affect this thorny issue as much as it could have.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-nfl-wont-open-supplemental-draft-to-more-players-if-college-football-season-is-canceled-182951068.html

 
The rules are the rules, which don't allow guys to just declare willy nilly. I actually think we could have saved a lot of discussion by just finding out the current rules first. 

At this point, with July's declaration deadline looming, there is zero indication the NFL would change the rules.

I also wonder if this would need an NFLPA vote since it would impact them if they changed the rules. 
I didn't know the NFL had in place rules for a pandemic. ;)

 
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The rules are the rules, which don't allow guys to just declare willy nilly. I actually think we could have saved a lot of discussion by just finding out the current rules first. 

At this point, with July's declaration deadline looming, there is zero indication the NFL would change the rules.

I also wonder if this would need an NFLPA vote since it would impact them if they changed the rules. 
I think we live in an era where all kind of exemptions can be made if the right people decide to make it so.

 
I think we live in an era where all kind of exemptions can be made if the right people decide to make it so.
Actually, the NFL can decide any time to grant an exemption for the supplemental draft, and did so with Larry FItzgerald. What will be interesting would be to see how the CBA plays out in the courts if the student-athletes sue to be included and are granted an injunction by a judge. 

This is a lot more nuanced than Dr. BD (all respect) is making it out to be, and I think his general stance on COVID is coloring his perception of the actuality of what the NFL has done and said. 

 
At this point, with July's declaration deadline looming, there is zero indication the NFL would change the rules.
I think there's a 50/50 chance that by the July declaration date we will have clarity as to whether or not there's even going to be a college football season.  That's the decision that drives this, IMO.

 
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/how-the-nfl-supplemental-draft-works-what-when-who-and-more-you-need-to-know-for-2020/

No hard sources, but "sources" are indicating that the SD will be business as usual.  No COVID-related exceptions, just your normal guys that get themselves eligible the old fashioned ways.  Not sure I buy that.

There's zero chance the NFL allows anyone that wouldn't have otherwise been eligible - ie Sophomores/2 years from high school guys.  They do that and they never get the cat back in the bag.  Only guys that have as of today completed three years from high school would even have a shot at it. 

If they do allow other entrants, there's zero chance they change their mechanism.  Teams that trade future picks do so knowing there's a SD every year and those picks are that draft's currency.  They get no mulligan because the class is richer than originally anticipated, especially since this was such a forseeable possibility.

 
Actually, the NFL can decide any time to grant an exemption for the supplemental draft, and did so with Larry FItzgerald. What will be interesting would be to see how the CBA plays out in the courts if the student-athletes sue to be included and are granted an injunction by a judge. 

This is a lot more nuanced than Dr. BD (all respect) is making it out to be, and I think his general stance on COVID is coloring his perception of the actuality of what the NFL has done and said. 
I must be missing something.  Fitzgerald was the 1.03 pick in the 2004 NFL Draft.  What did he have to do with the supplemental draft ?

Now Bernie Kosar is a different story.

 
I must be missing something.  Fitzgerald was the 1.03 pick in the 2004 NFL Draft.  What did he have to do with the supplemental draft ?

Now Bernie Kosar is a different story.
I'm sorry. It wasn't the supplemental. If I'm not mistaken, Larry Fitzgerald did not satisfy the requirements of time out of high school for the draft, and Pete Rozelle exempted him from the rule for no other reason than Rozelle was Fitzgerald's father's friend.  Ah, the link below tells a slightly different story, but it's close. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/06/sports/football-nfl-grants-eligibility-to-fitzgerald-pitt-receiver.html

 
Hankmoody said:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/how-the-nfl-supplemental-draft-works-what-when-who-and-more-you-need-to-know-for-2020/

No hard sources, but "sources" are indicating that the SD will be business as usual.  No COVID-related exceptions, just your normal guys that get themselves eligible the old fashioned ways.  Not sure I buy that.

There's zero chance the NFL allows anyone that wouldn't have otherwise been eligible - ie Sophomores/2 years from high school guys.  They do that and they never get the cat back in the bag.  Only guys that have as of today completed three years from high school would even have a shot at it. 

If they do allow other entrants, there's zero chance they change their mechanism.  Teams that trade future picks do so knowing there's a SD every year and those picks are that draft's currency.  They get no mulligan because the class is richer than originally anticipated, especially since this was such a forseeable possibility.
Agreed. Zero chance anyone other than who could've declared this season will be eligible for the SD. 

As far as anyone eligible in this past class, the NFL has already "leaked" they won't let the pandemic be the sole reason for eligibility. Also, while I get the reluctance to sit out a season, even if the NFL allowed them in, the SD is a risky proposition for top prospects. 

It might be worth it for some lower-tier guys, but it's unlikely any top skill-position prospects from the 2020 class would be willing to roll the dice. Given the state of things & how scouting would be affected, it's especially risky this year. Their draft stock would be even more of an unknown as well as the money that goes along with it.

 
Agreed. Zero chance anyone other than who could've declared this season will be eligible for the SD. 

As far as anyone eligible in this past class, the NFL has already "leaked" they won't let the pandemic be the sole reason for eligibility. Also, while I get the reluctance to sit out a season, even if the NFL allowed them in, the SD is a risky proposition for top prospects. 

It might be worth it for some lower-tier guys, but it's unlikely any top skill-position prospects from the 2020 class would be willing to roll the dice. Given the state of things & how scouting would be affected, it's especially risky this year. Their draft stock would be even more of an unknown as well as the money that goes along with it.
I'd say it's definitely worth it for guys who will be seniors this year and "should" have come out in this draft.  Guys like Etienne, Hubbard, Harris, etc. are essentially losing a year if they don't enter the supplemental draft and the college season is canceled or severely shortened.  Do you really think these guys will go back for another college season and enter the NFL draft as a very old rookie?

 
I'd say it's definitely worth it for guys who will be seniors this year and "should" have come out in this draft.  Guys like Etienne, Hubbard, Harris, etc. are essentially losing a year if they don't enter the supplemental draft and the college season is canceled or severely shortened.  Do you really think these guys will go back for another college season and enter the NFL draft as a very old rookie?
It’s not ideal, but take Etienne. The speculation was he didn’t declare because of a 2nd round grade.

I’m thinking he’s not going to risk falling even farther in the SD, especially given the circumstances.

The first contract is 4 years so money is a big consideration.

 
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It’s not ideal, but take Etienne. The speculation was he didn’t declare because of a 2nd round grade.

I’m thinking he’s not going to risk falling even farther in the SD, especially given the circumstances.

The first contract is 4 years so money is a big consideration.
I understand your perspective but what does he do then?  Go back to school for two more years to play 1 more season of football in the hopes he raises his draft grade from 2nd round to 1st?  And at that point he'd be "almost" 24 when he enters the NFL?  He'd be "almost" 28 at the start of his second NFL contract when the bigger money is available.  Who's going to pay a 28 year old RB good money on a second, long term contract?  His best financial bet would be to "become ineligible" now and enter the Supplemental draft as a 21 year old, even if he's take in the 3rd round, in the hopes that his second contract - at the age of 25, will be more lucrative.

 
I understand your perspective but what does he do then?  Go back to school for two more years to play 1 more season of football in the hopes he raises his draft grade from 2nd round to 1st?  And at that point he'd be "almost" 24 when he enters the NFL?  He'd be "almost" 28 at the start of his second NFL contract when the bigger money is available.  Who's going to pay a 28 year old RB good money on a second, long term contract?  His best financial bet would be to "become ineligible" now and enter the Supplemental draft as a 21 year old, even if he's take in the 3rd round, in the hopes that his second contract - at the age of 25, will be more lucrative.
Two more years?

Etienne would be 22 next season as a rookie if he sits out this year.

His second contract would be as a 26-year old.

 
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Two more years?

Etienne would be 22 next season as a rookie if he sits out this year.

His second contract would be as a 26-year old.
Yes but sitting out the year because of no college football gets him nothing but a year older.  It certainly doesn't change his grade from a 2nd to a first rounder if he were to enter the draft next year after sitting around doing nothing for an entire year.  That's my point...  If there is NO college football, these guys (Seniors) who went back to school get NO benefit.  They can't showcase their skills or improve on their numbers.  All that happens is they get a year older and come out next year after doing nothing for a year.  Do you honestly think not playing football for a year will improve their draft stock?

 
Yes but sitting out the year because of no college football gets him nothing but a year older.  It certainly doesn't change his grade from a 2nd to a first rounder if he were to enter the draft next year after sitting around doing nothing for an entire year.  That's my point...  If there is NO college football, these guys (Seniors) who went back to school get NO benefit.  They can't showcase their skills or improve on their numbers.  All that happens is they get a year older and come out next year after doing nothing for a year.  Do you honestly think not playing football for a year will improve their draft stock?
It doesn't have to improve it, but there's real risk in the SD draft. No upside other than not sitting out & lot of money at stake.

None of these guys are going to be able to come out, anyway (unless they can show hardship not related to the pandemic).

 
The NFL Supplemental Draft, Explained

Excerpt:

In the early stages of the pandemic, some wondered whether this year’s supplemental draft would wind up as a free-for-all, with top 2021 prospects up for grabs. That, apparently, won’t be the case. The NFL decided against making exceptions for players in the event of a delayed or cancelled NCAA season. Meanwhile, college football appears to be moving towards going ahead with the 2020 campaign.

 
Thank god. One landmine avoided. 
They'd already sort of said that the exemptions would not apply to the COVID kids. In other words, you normally get an exemption due to eligibility concerns, etc. from the NFL and that COVID wouldn't qualify. 

That said, it's not over. They may have labor law issues in not instituting the draft like they have previously have. 

I know you said you run a dynasty league or commish it. This #### is all gonna wind up in court. The CBA, everything. That's my prediction. You think they won't fight to the teeth over whether the service time tolls this year? 

Hoo baby.  

 
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Just announced:

There will not be a supplemental draft this year.
That's because they would wind up in Court over their refusal to allow the COVID kids to be eligible.  

They will wind up in court anyway, if you ask me. 

 
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They'd already sort of said that the exemptions would not apply to the COVID kids. In other words, you normally get an exemption due to eligibility concerns, etc. from the NFL and that COVID wouldn't qualify. 

That said, it's not over. They may have labor law issues in not instituting the draft like they have previously have. 

I know you said you run a dynasty league or commish it. This #### is all gonna wind up in court. The CBA, everything. That's my prediction. You think they won't fight to the teeth over whether the service time tolls this year? 

Hoo baby.  
Yeah well they can go to court all they want as long as it doesn't interfere with our 1st waiver run. 

 

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