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Effect Of Best Case Scenario On Trump's Reelection Chances? (1 Viewer)

Effect Of Best Case Scenario On Trump's Reelection Chances?

  • Massive Boost For Trump

    Votes: 23 33.8%
  • Significant Boost For Trump

    Votes: 17 25.0%
  • Minor Boost For Trump

    Votes: 13 19.1%
  • No Effect For Trump

    Votes: 15 22.1%

  • Total voters
    68

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Had a discussion with a friend today and wanted to get your take here.

What effect would an ending of the medical crisis of Covid-19, and a strong economic recovery (unemployment rates and stock market back to around 90% where they were in January) by August 1 have on Trump's chances for reelection in November?

Basically, a best case scenario from this point forward for ending Covid-19 and the for the US Economy.

 
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no affect...lines are drawn and they are getting carved in more and more every day.
Thanks. Can you elaborate in more detail? 

And I don't mean for the hard core political person that is entrenched either for or against him.

I mean for the masses. 

 
Thanks. Can you elaborate in more detail? 

And I don't mean for the hard core political person that is entrenched either for or against him.

I mean for the masses. 
I think polling is pretty clear....his actions don't matter at this point.  Those who hate him hate him and won't vote for him regardless of what he does.  Those who love him love him and will vote for him regardless of what he does.  This is shown in the remarkably consistent approval/disapproval ratings.  It doesn't matter what he's doing.  His disapproval number is the one that changes, but even then it's for a few days and goes back into the 50's.  Approval hovers right around 40%.  I think it might be 45% right now?  I think I saw that.  I see no reason to believe that approval shoots through the roof at any point between now and August.

 
I personally think that whatever one thinks of the President, his approval will, as The Commish points out, climb no higher than 46% in the aggregate, and his chances of re-election have been irredeemably hurt by his response to the virus, which has been one of admitted unpreparedness and vacillation about its severity.

People saw it. They won't forget it. His election chances have been hurt and no recovery is going to get people to remember that they're a few people away from being stuck in place for a month or two again due to late and half measures in response to the disease, down to dismantling the apparatus designed by President Obama to combat something like this from happening.

Cat's out of the bag on this President. No amount of caterwauling gets the claws back in.

 
I think polling is pretty clear....his actions don't matter at this point.  Those who hate him hate him and won't vote for him regardless of what he does.  Those who love him love him and will vote for him regardless of what he does.  This is shown in the remarkably consistent approval/disapproval ratings.  It doesn't matter what he's doing.  His disapproval number is the one that changes, but even then it's for a few days and goes back into the 50's.  Approval hovers right around 40%.  I think it might be 45% right now?  I think I saw that.  I see no reason to believe that approval shoots through the roof at any point between now and August.
Thanks. 

@BobbyLayne I'd be interested in your thought on this as a New Yorker.

 
I am of the belief that the coronavirus will have little impact on Trump's chances of being re-elected. His tactic of always being vague allows him to avoid responsibility and to take credit for positive things while also avoiding blame for negative things.

If 99,999 Americans end up dying, he can claim that he personally saved millions of lives.

If 200,000+ Americans end up dying, he can blame the governors of those states.

He won't lose a significant number of voters either way.

If the economy returns to 90% by August, Trump easily wins in November.

 
And to be clear, for the folks that are saying "no effect", are you saying Trumps chances in November are the same whether unemployment is 5% or if it's 15%?

 
I am of the belief that the coronavirus will have little impact on Trump's chances of being re-elected. His tactic of always being vague allows him to avoid responsibility and to take credit for positive things while also avoiding blame for negative things.

If 99,999 Americans end up dying, he can claim that he personally saved millions of lives.

If 200,000+ Americans end up dying, he can blame the governors of those states.

He won't lose a significant number of voters either way.

If the economy returns to 90% by August, Trump easily wins in November.
I don't think I'm asking this effectively.

If the economy is no better in August than it is today, do you think he wins easily in November?

 
I am of the belief that the coronavirus will have little impact on Trump's chances of being re-elected. His tactic of always being vague allows him to avoid responsibility and to take credit for positive things while also avoiding blame for negative things.

If 99,999 Americans end up dying, he can claim that he personally saved millions of lives.

If 200,000+ Americans end up dying, he can blame the governors of those states.

He won't lose a significant number of voters either way.

If the economy returns to 90% by August, Trump easily wins in November.
I don't think I'm asking this effectively.

If the economy is no better in August than it is today, do you think he wins easily in November?
I think Trump is likely to win whether the economy is good or bad.

If the economy is good, he gets ~350 electoral votes.

If the economy is the same in August as it is right now, he gets ~300 electoral votes.

 
@BobbyLayne I'd be interested in your thought on this as a New Yorker.
N/A

In the five boroughs HRC has 79% of the vote and statewide DJT got less than 37%. Nothing will change here regardless of Covid-19 or economic outcomes.

Agree with @The Commish & @rockaction the die is already cast nationally.

Q for you @Joe Bryant - how is it even possible to have a conversation that starts out about Trump and his response to the pandemic, and from there evolves into a discussion of the best case dream scenario?

 
No way to tell, but I can tell you we went through that here in NO and people stayed angry and reform oriented for years. Having said that NAGIN (!) won reelection and no one thought that was possible. There were some vagaries along with that but it happened. Ultimately the state and city were shaken politically even after recovery. The governor lost and several surrounding parish leaders lost. Some people got arrested. There was hell to pay. I realize the comp isn’t perfect but people won’t forget this.

 
No way to tell, but I can tell you we went through that here in NO and people stayed angry and reform oriented for years. Having said that NAGIN (!) won reelection and no one thought that was possible. There were some vagaries along with that but it happened. Ultimately the state and city were shaken politically even after recovery. The governor lost and several surrounding parish leaders lost. Some people got arrested. There was hell to pay. I realize the comp isn’t perfect but people won’t forget this.
Ray Nagin winning again is what happens when a locality is dominate by a voting bloc, especially a minority one. Usually the area is mismanaged, rife with corruption, and goes to #### soon after. See: D.C. and Marion Barry. Sorry that's the case with N.O., a place you love and I admire, but that seems to be how it is. Corrupt, mismanaged, prison-worthy pols that lord over areas that people wind up fleeing or dying in for no reason.

David Simon can make a million Tremes, a million Wires, a million anything. So long as graft and corruption and socialistic policies rule the day, the localities will look to states to bail them out, the states to the feds, and down the list.

It's a sad state of affairs and goes back to bailing out NYC in the day when it should have been left to bankrupt its own damn self. 

 
I think he was done before the epidemic.

His Party took a bit hit in 18.....as much a referendum on him as the individuals running.

His Party didn't fare very well in 19 special elections.

Biden is pretty inoffensive in the idea that if you were a Centrist.....you weren't going to have your apple cart tipped over if Biden won; unlike potentially Sanders.  

If the economy came back and the epidemic was controlled/eliminated;  that would help him in his re-election chances more than if there wasn't an epidemic/economy peril.

That being said, even if there was near complete recovery health and economy wise.....the uncertainty and fears that most of the country have felt in the past month plus could be effectively used against him. I imagine that if the economy stagnates AND people are hit hard health wise....even Biden is going to take some flak from his Left in regards to increasing/implementing an American safety net.  

 
I think polling is pretty clear....his actions don't matter at this point.  Those who hate him hate him and won't vote for him regardless of what he does.  Those who love him love him and will vote for him regardless of what he does.  This is shown in the remarkably consistent approval/disapproval ratings.  It doesn't matter what he's doing.  His disapproval number is the one that changes, but even then it's for a few days and goes back into the 50's.  Approval hovers right around 40%.  I think it might be 45% right now?  I think I saw that.  I see no reason to believe that approval shoots through the roof at any point between now and August.
I disagree.  Before this whole social distancing thing I talked to a whole lot of people that held their nose at Trump (some of which still voted for him the first time around, but many of which did not) but were plenty excited to pull the lever for him this time around when they looked at their 401k.

If the stock market comes back, no matter how fragile and peace-mealed together it is, these people will rush to the polling stations to keep what they see as their retirement savior in office.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Q for you @Joe Bryant - how is it even possible to have a conversation that starts out about Trump and his response to the pandemic, and from there evolves into a discussion of the best case dream scenario?
The question I asked above was what would a best case scenario from this point forward do to his chances.

Basically, a best case scenario from this point forward for ending Covid-19 and the for the US Economy.
Every situation, has at every point, a best case scenario. Would you agree?

From this point, I would call ending the medical crisis and having a nearly full economic recovery a "best case scenario". Would you agree?

 
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And to be clear, I'm not saying Trump will or won't make any of that happen. 

I'm just asking if it DID happen, how it might affect his chances. 

 
I try to keep an open mind.  Not really a fan of Trump or Biden, both too old for me.

To answer the question though if Trump cured Corona, kept us out of wars and kept the economy going full blast, continues evening trade, those that hate him would still never vote for him. 

On the other hand I know many closet Trumpers.  People who you think would be automatic Dem voters but like the way things were going.  The trades people love Trump and many are minorities.  My in-law are in landscaping and they will vote for Trump even thought they are minority as things have been great for them.

They don`t like all he says but they think he is good for business.   All the regular Joes in their 40s and 50s who need their investments to grow for future retirement will be sleeper Trumpers.   It will be crazy in all ways if he wins again that you can count on.

 
From this point, I would call ending the medical crisis and having a nearly full economic recovery a "best case scenario". Would you agree?
You think that’s within the realm of possibility? We’re 12-18 months away from a vaccine and have no proven therapeutic.

 
You think that’s within the realm of possibility? We’re 12-18 months away from a vaccine and have no proven therapeutic.
I don’t know what’s possible. 

What would you call our best case scenario by August?

 
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rockaction said:
Ray Nagin winning again is what happens when a locality is dominate by a voting bloc, especially a minority one. Usually the area is mismanaged, rife with corruption, and goes to #### soon after. See: D.C. and Marion Barry. Sorry that's the case with N.O., a place you love and I admire, but that seems to be how it is. Corrupt, mismanaged, prison-worthy pols that lord over areas that people wind up fleeing or dying in for no reason.

David Simon can make a million Tremes, a million Wires, a million anything. So long as graft and corruption and socialistic policies rule the day, the localities will look to states to bail them out, the states to the feds, and down the list.

It's a sad state of affairs and goes back to bailing out NYC in the day when it should have been left to bankrupt its own damn self. 
Nagin did go to jail, as did two of his neighboring parish presidents. 

So if we see something similar here, I'll be ok with that end result.

 
I disagree with most of the folks here. If things go great, ESPECIALLY if hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment, and we have a full recovery by November, I think the public rewards Trump with re-election. 

 
Are we assuming a coherent Biden or the current one who can't complete a single sentence without forgetting what he's saying? Because that "either or" seems even more likely to decide the outcome of Nov 3.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I disagree.  Before this whole social distancing thing I talked to a whole lot of people that held their nose at Trump (some of which still voted for him the first time around, but many of which did not) but were plenty excited to pull the lever for him this time around when they looked at their 401k.

If the stock market comes back, no matter how fragile and peace-mealed together it is, these people will rush to the polling stations to keep what they see as their retirement savior in office.
You could be correct and that would be devastating to the country.  Regardless, I can only go on what people are saying via the polling and even in the middle of this fiasco there has been no substantial, long lasting shift in approval/disapproval.  I can see how the scenario you lay out above might make a difference in the popular vote gap, but that's about it.  What you elude to above has to be relative in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn and Ohio most and I don't know that successful stock market will make those areas of the country forget all the broken promises he's racked up over his tenure, but I may be wrong.  We'll have to wait and see.

 
Are we assuming a coherent Biden or the current one who can't complete a single sentence without forgetting what he's saying? Because that "either or" seems even more likely to decide the outcome of Nov 3.
Seems to me that coherence is REALLY low on the priority list of the country as a whole.  Have you listened to our President ever?  I know it provides for a decent "zing" on occasion, but that's really not a selling point of Trump by any meaningful measure.  At best it ends up being a wash for him.

 
Seems to me that coherence is REALLY low on the priority list of the country as a whole.  Have you listened to our President ever?  I know it provides for a decent "zing" on occasion, but that's really not a selling point of Trump by any meaningful measure.  At best it ends up being a wash for him.
If Biden keeps forgetting where he is and losing train of thought mid sentence over and over for the entire nation to witness, you think he's beating an incumbent regardless of what's going on in the world? To get this back to Trump, I'd say Biden only wins with his current incoherence if the worst case scenarios are playing out. Which are definitely possible.

 
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If Biden keeps forgetting where he is and losing train of thought mid sentence over and over for the entire nation to witness, you think he's beating an incumbent regardless of what's going on in the world? To get this back to Trump, I'd say Biden only wins with his current incoherence if the worst case scenarios are playing out. Which are definitely possible.
He didn't lose his train of thought or make any gaffes in the last debate with Bernie, which you and the others overlook since it disproves you meme and talking point that Biden can't put two coherent sentences in a row together. That dog won't hunt come the debates with Trump in the fall, as Joe will do as well then as he just did.

 
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If Biden keeps forgetting where he is and losing train of thought mid sentence over and over for the entire nation to witness, you think he's beating an incumbent regardless of what's going on in the world? To get this back to Trump, I'd say Biden only wins with his current incoherence if the worst case scenarios are playing out. Which are definitely possible.
For many losing his train of thought means he had one in the first place which is a step up from the option sitting in the White House  :shrug:

I get what history tells us about incumbents and all that jazz and under normal circumstances I'd be jumping in the boat with you on this one.  Trump isn't normal.  This situation isn't normal.  This thing should have been the layup crisis necessary to rally the country, but here we are.  It's always been Trump's to lose and he's doing his best to lose it.
 

 
Are we assuming a coherent Biden or the current one who can't complete a single sentence without forgetting what he's saying? Because that "either or" seems even more likely to decide the outcome of Nov 3.
Just a quick note on this; I know this meme is popular with the pro-Trump crowd (and Trump himself tried it out the other day) but I listened to another interview with Biden tonight and it’s just not gonna fly. At all. Dude is sharp, totally gets it, no sign of incoherence at all. You guys might want to move on to something else, this dog won’t hunt. 

 
How in the world will a president under who's watch 100k died, we entered a recession, double digit unemployment, and who ushered in a 40% increase to the debt expect to win?

All the while being the vile human he's always shown himself to be.

He'll get his 35% base, but the moderate dems who crossed to either vote for him or against Hillary are gong to do so again?  Just look at where Biden is crushing Bernie this year where Bernie beat Hillary last time.  In exactly the states that Trump needs to hold.  If Trump wins Michigan, PA, and Wisconsin again this year, then I just won't know what to say. 

 
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If Biden keeps forgetting where he is and losing train of thought mid sentence over and over for the entire nation to witness, you think he's beating an incumbent regardless of what's going on in the world? To get this back to Trump, I'd say Biden only wins with his current incoherence if the worst case scenarios are playing out. Which are definitely possible.
I see Trump supporters state this all the time.  They act like Biden is essentially showing heaving signs of alzheimers.  It's like they're trying to convince themselves that somehow Trump's mental prowess will really set him apart from Biden.

Bizarre is the only word I can think of.  Biden looks and sounds 100x more presidential than the word salad, fight picking Trump.  These daily pressers ain't turning anyone onto Trump other than his base for "owning the fake news"

What a country. 

 
How in the world will a president under who's watch 100k died, we entered a recession, double digit unemployment, and who ushered in a 40% increase to the debt expect to win?

All the while being the vile human he's always shown himself to be.

He'll get his 35% base, but the moderate dems who crossed to either vote for him or against Hillary are gong to do so again?  Just look at where Biden is crushing Bernie this year where Bernie beat Hillary last time.  In exactly the states that Trump needs to hold.  If Trump wins Michigan, PA, and Wisconsin again this year, then I just won't know what to say. 
What do you think the country’s  best case scenario recovery from COVID-19 will do to his chances in November? Which one did you vote for above?

 
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I don’t think a snap back to a January 2020 world changes his January 2020 odds which were roughly 60-40% for him back then. 

 
What do you think the country’s  best case scenario recovery from COVID-19 will do to his chances in November? Which one did you vote for above?
Voted minor boost.  Like many have said, I'd bet 90-95% of the country is set.  That remaining 10%, many of whom crossed and voted against Hillary might think that a swift end to this pandemic with minimal economic damage would look favorable on Trump and would vote for him again. 

 
Trump’s approval rating right now is the best since his opening days even though I and many others think he’s been terrible in this crisis. It’s unfathomable to me that in Joe’s best case scenario that he wouldn’t get additional gains.  

Massive boost.

 
BobbyLayne said:
If I’m understanding you correctly, you’re asking me to answer good, great, or greatest ever?
:confused:  I don’t know what you mean by this, GB.

I’m asking from this point, what effect, if any, would a massive improvement in the  COVID-19 Crisis and the Economic Crisis have on Trump’s chances in November. 

 
Trump’s approval rating right now is the best since his opening days even though I and many others think he’s been terrible in this crisis. It’s unfathomable to me that in Joe’s best case scenario that he wouldn’t get additional gains.  

Massive boost.
Hopefully most people realize that whatever recovery we do see is in spite of Trump, certainly not because of him.

We're going to end up in the top 5 countries for deaths per capita despite receiving ample early evidence and downplaying everything.

His fervent fans my believe all his lies but the majority of the country is woke to him.  How could anyone suggest that the US's response has been anything but bad at best, horrible at worst.  He's hung the states out to dry and has said as much. 

 
If watching this guy speak near daily at these briefings recently doesn’t sink him, nothing will.  And I do not say that couched in some anti-Trump/Republican or pro-Democrat slant, it's nothing more than personal analysis of Trump as a visible and vocal leader.  He can’t speak well, he can’t articulate well, he can’t empathize/sympathize.  He is not a leader of men, just isn’t.  Any honest review of his administration should lead to the conclusion that he isn’t fit for the job.

All that said, he’s got 2 sizable pros on his side for re-election.  One, incumbents are hard to beat.  Two, his opponents are the Democrats who first put Hillary against him and now seem poised to throw Biden against the wall.

 
You could be correct and that would be devastating to the country.  Regardless, I can only go on what people are saying via the polling and even in the middle of this fiasco there has been no substantial, long lasting shift in approval/disapproval.  I can see how the scenario you lay out above might make a difference in the popular vote gap, but that's about it.  What you elude to above has to be relative in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn and Ohio most and I don't know that successful stock market will make those areas of the country forget all the broken promises he's racked up over his tenure, but I may be wrong.  We'll have to wait and see.
After seeing how Wisconsin chose to run their primary yesterday it looks like Republicans are in control in Wisconsin there. Trump will win Wisconsin.

 
After seeing how Wisconsin chose to run their primary yesterday it looks like Republicans are in control in Wisconsin there. Trump will win Wisconsin.
If the republicans are able to suppress the black vote like they did yesterday, Trump will likely win Wisconsin. If everyone has access to voting like normal, Trump's getting crushed in Wisconsin. 

 
This instant 33-66%.  There are only a handful of states that really matter and I don’t think Tuesday’s election in Wisconsin (probably the most important state) helped in.  
Thanks. 

I know these are just estimates. But today, we're saying he's got a 33% chance to win.

In January, we're saying he had a 60% chance to win.

Wouldn't it make sense to say if we could get the COVID-19 Crisis under control and get our economy much closer to where it was in January, Trump might be able to improve his election chances back towards where they were in January? 

 
Thanks. 

I know these are just estimates. But today, we're saying he's got a 33% chance to win.

In January, we're saying he had a 60% chance to win.

Wouldn't it make sense to say if we could get the COVID-19 Crisis under control and get our economy much closer to where it was in January, Trump might be able to improve his election chances back towards where they were in January? 
That’s exactly what I was trying to say (apparently very badly) :thumbup:

 
Just a quick note on this; I know this meme is popular with the pro-Trump crowd (and Trump himself tried it out the other day) but I listened to another interview with Biden tonight and it’s just not gonna fly. At all. Dude is sharp, totally gets it, no sign of incoherence at all. You guys might want to move on to something else, this dog won’t hunt. 
Certainly it flies.  Dan Quayle was a bumbling idiot because of a misspelled word.  Sarah Palin was an idiot bumbling idiot for a couple of her responses to Katie Couric.  People base broad opinions on very small data points.   

 
Certainly it flies.  Dan Quayle was a bumbling idiot because of a misspelled word.  Sarah Palin was an idiot bumbling idiot for a couple of her responses to Katie Couric.  People base broad opinions on very small data points.   
Yep.  And this definitely goes both ways.  Hell, I make it seem like Trump can barely get out an intelligent sentence when that's not the truth.  He certainly rambles and says a lot of stupid things but we do tend to over blow what we perceive as weaknesses in opponents.  

 
Thanks. 

I know these are just estimates. But today, we're saying he's got a 33% chance to win.

In January, we're saying he had a 60% chance to win.

Wouldn't it make sense to say if we could get the COVID-19 Crisis under control and get our economy much closer to where it was in January, Trump might be able to improve his election chances back towards where they were in January? 
I don’t know if this Covid-19 crisis hurts him much. His approval of the handling should be no higher than 30-35% coming from his blind loyal base yet he is hovering around 50 approval despite this slow reaction even just that critical first 10--15 days in March where had the defense protection act been initiated to make the 95 masks would have had a good start for being much more prepared.

 

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