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America 2.0 Reopening the Country


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Main Focus for now is getting the country reopened. I will put forth a couple broader ideas but I want to be crystal clear, this is not the thread to try and convince people the country should stay closed thru Christmas. There's a main CV-19 thread and this is not going to be a duplicate of that discussion. I am eager to hear what the plan is in the Northeast. 

I have a few questions that I would ask folks to think about and there doesn't have to be a right or wrong answer but these would be some of my questions if I could get a press pass for the day. 

-Why aren't companies that can mitigate and operate right now, why are they not allowed to be open? There are companies now, many in the grocery industry that are in plain sight and open while mitigating, why can't other businesses be given the opportunity vs being forced into bankruptcy thru this? Why aren't you(Health Leaders) issuing guidelines to States and localities to help them and encourage governors and mayors there to do so? 

-What happens after we're done hunkering down? Because millions of Americans are going to successfully NOT GET THE VIRUS because they were good boys and girls and followed instructions. Aren't these good hearted law abiding hard working American citizens now highly susceptible to getting the virus after they get the ALL CLEAR from the town crier? Part of this seasonal talk, isn't that really code for how we must live going forward? Don't shake hands, don't touch doorknobs, etc...

-What happens to the healthcare system when unemployment hits 20%? Read that a couple times and let that sink in a bit. 

-How many jobs are ever created or countries prosper out of massive deficit spending? Has that ever been a terrific formula for America moving ahead? 

And so I would ask you between "sippy cup" runs and TV marathons to think a little bit beyond just your immediate position or role in your company, and hopefully you aren't being laid off or furloughed, the new hip term. Wife's hospital let the Foundation know they are going to be about $10Million short on their budget and asked them to add that to their yearly goals now. The fallout and domino effect of all this is truly hard to measure in a few sentences or thoughts, it's very consuming and you'll get a headache if you think too long. 

I'd like to throw a quick shoutout to some folks who have been wonderful thread shepherds through this awful crisis. Folks like GM who fired up a low cost meal thread knowing that not everyone is a fat cat like Otis. For BF and Krista, just good peeps who always are up for some positive bilateral self propulsion and a whole bunch of others who cheer everyone on in these health threads. If you haven't tried the Tecumseh Challenge you're missing out. 

Getting the country open and getting people who are able bodied and the least likely to catch the virus or perish from it, they should be encouraged and allowed to work. I really don't think they are being held back but I don't see Uncle Sam pointing and saying "I Want You". I do think young adults like they have in previous wars, should be leaned on to help out right now. 

Try and find a health care professional or small group and thank them in any way or form that you can. Try to be understanding at highly stressful places like the grocery stores now, especially the workers who are under tremendous pressure. 

What would you like to be doing going forward? If this was an opportunity to re-set the rest of your life or you had wanted to make some changes, I hope you are finding those paths. If you haven't, it's certainly not too late to restructure things that will bring you the most happiness. Some of you are already living those lives, some of you have had those lives turned upside down and some of you will bounce back from this stronger, wiser and yes wealthier long term. 

What businesses can be open fairly safely right now? How would you handle getting folks back to work? 

Stay Safe and Cheers Everyone! 

Edited by Ministry of Pain
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Just now, Ministry of Pain said:

-Why aren't companies that can mitigate and operate right now, why are they not allowed to be open? There are companies now, many in the grocery industry that are in plain sight and open while mitigating, why can't other businesses be given the opportunity vs being forced into bankruptcy thru this? Why aren't you(Health Leaders) issuing guidelines to Sates and localities to help them and encourage governors and mayors there to do so? 

-What happens after we're done hunkering down? Because millions of Americans are going to successfully NOT GET THE VIRUS because they were good boys and girls and followed instructions. Aren't these good hearted law abiding hard working American citizens now highly susceptible to getting the virus after they get the ALL CLEAR from the town crier? Part of this seasonal talk, isn't that really code for how we must live going forward? Don't shake hands, don't touch doorknobs, etc...

 

Regarding the second question, how will you know that they won't get the virus?

Regarding the first question, it is going to be a trade-off of risk/reward, but I'm not sure whether we have the data or medical infrastructure regarding mitigation to make this determination yet.  

But yes, these are the questions that will need to be answered.

 

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2 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Regarding the second question, how will you know that they won't get the virus?

Regarding the first question, it is going to be a trade-off of risk/reward, but I'm not sure whether we have the data or medical infrastructure regarding mitigation to make this determination yet.  

But yes, these are the questions that will need to be answered.

 

Great opening question and the reality is Larry, we won't until there is a vaccine, that would be a logical answer, yes/no? I know we don't have one at the moment but that is why I ask about the seasonal thing...it's going to resurface or it certainly is on the spectrum of possibilities. Are we just going to shut down again in the middle of the Christmas Season? 

What if this had exploded on Thanksgiving Weekend at the height of Black Friday? 

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26 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Great opening question and the reality is Larry, we won't until there is a vaccine, that would be a logical answer, yes/no? I know we don't have one at the moment but that is why I ask about the seasonal thing...it's going to resurface or it certainly is on the spectrum of possibilities. Are we just going to shut down again in the middle of the Christmas Season? 

What if this had exploded on Thanksgiving Weekend at the height of Black Friday? 

The antibody testing is likely to be the key.

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even when there's a vaccine, if the efficacy of that is low like it is some years with the flu vaccine, aren't we still susceptible to an outbreak of some degree.    this virus seems to be more contagious and deadlier then influenza so the risks are a lot higher.   

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What companies do you think could be open and aren't?  

I picked up running shoes, went to the hardware store, went to the grocery store, had multiple deliveries to my house and I'm working from home.   I can't get a tattoo or a haircut right now, but that is about it.   People are getting sprinklers repaired, roofs installed, dogs groomed.  You can go to the church in the morning and pray.  You can kayak and fish in the lake.  Seems like a lot of stuff is still happening.

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4 minutes ago, Nugget said:

What companies do you think could be open and aren't?  

I picked up running shoes, went to the hardware store, went to the grocery store, had multiple deliveries to my house and I'm working from home.   I can't get a tattoo or a haircut right now, but that is about it.   People are getting sprinklers repaired, roofs installed, dogs groomed.  You can go to the church in the morning and pray.  You can kayak and fish in the lake.  Seems like a lot of stuff is still happening.

i think this really depends on the state.

Pretty sure that at least half of that can't happen right now in PA.

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6 minutes ago, Nugget said:

What companies do you think could be open and aren't?  

I picked up running shoes, went to the hardware store, went to the grocery store, had multiple deliveries to my house and I'm working from home.   I can't get a tattoo or a haircut right now, but that is about it.   People are getting sprinklers repaired, roofs installed, dogs groomed.  You can go to the church in the morning and pray.  You can kayak and fish in the lake.  Seems like a lot of stuff is still happening.

 I wish that was the case in NJ.  All parks are closed.

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24 minutes ago, Roy L Fewks said:

More like America 1.1, followed by another outbreak, followed by another shutdown, followed by America 1.2, followed by another outbreak, followed by another shutdown, etc.

 

17 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Is there really any doubt that’s what’s gonna happen. 

🤔

I wish I could disagree but it feels like it could go that way. It's possible it doesn't but there are going to be large portions of the population that are not going to want to take a step forward for a while. Everywhere is a potential germ hub where people gather or pass thru in droves like grocery stores. 

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4 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Regarding the second question, how will you know that they won't get the virus?

Regarding the first question, it is going to be a trade-off of risk/reward, but I'm not sure whether we have the data or medical infrastructure regarding mitigation to make this determination yet.  

But yes, these are the questions that will need to be answered.

 

I thought this article was pertinent to our discussion so I'm linking it. I believe many of the health care professionals are right that we will need to distance for a while. As an example, some of the bigger stores are doing up one aisle and down the next, 1-way aisles better way to say it. I don't believe they are doing this for a 2 week run. 

Florida Surgeon General-1 Year Social Distancing

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One of the many side effects will be local and state government losing millions in revenue and taxes causing massive shortfalls in their budgets and of course the first thing they will do is lay off lots of people and then do things we all grew to love in the '08/'09 thru about '12-'13 run in this country where people were expected to smile as their paychecks were cut by 10-20% and then for those lucky enough to get up and work every day, you lucky folks now get to over 2-3-4 positions with one person as many companies and elected leaders are announcing hiring freezes thru the end of the year, fun fun fun. 

2,100 Cities-Budget Shortfalls

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3 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

i think this really depends on the state.

Pretty sure that at least half of that can't happen right now in PA.

I’m in Pa

He pretty much nailed it from what I’ve seen

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3 hours ago, Nugget said:

What companies do you think could be open and aren't?  

 I can't get a tattoo or a haircut right now, but that is about it.   

Been thinking about this....if I wear a mask and she wears a mask....why can't I get a haircut?

(Full disclosure: clippers came yesterday and dreading getting a haircut from my wife)

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7 minutes ago, Statorama said:

Been thinking about this....if I wear a mask and she wears a mask....why can't I get a haircut?

(Full disclosure: clippers came yesterday and dreading getting a haircut from my wife)

If ti were that simple, why cant we stop social distancing as long as everyone wears a mask? I mean, its worked pretty well in China over the years. 

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2 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

If ti were that simple, why cant we stop social distancing as long as everyone wears a mask? I mean, its worked pretty well in China over the years. 

I'm not saying order the bat nachos at Chili's, just two people figuring out a way to not breathe on each other.

Online reservations, touchless thermometers, masks and gloves....seems like a haircut is doable?  I'm sure hairdressers could use the revenue.

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31 minutes ago, Statorama said:

I'm not saying order the bat nachos at Chili's, just two people figuring out a way to not breathe on each other.

Online reservations, touchless thermometers, masks and gloves....seems like a haircut is doable?  I'm sure hairdressers could use the revenue.

Might be in the first wave of businesses that are allowed to reopen.   Provided everyone does what they're supposed to, seems reasonable.  Problem is that a lot of people don't.   In NJ, you're required to wear masks in stores.  Of course there are people that don't and of course there are businesses that aren't enforcing it b/c well ya know,  people are going be people.  

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Opening up the country is like trying to sneak out of a little kids bedroom when they fall asleep. If you do it too soon, it will take longer. You have to let them get into a deeper sleep first, because if you rush out and they wake up you have to start all over again. Faster to wait 10 minutes for them to be sound asleep, than to try and leave after 3 minutes and have them wake up and spend 20 minutes trying to get them asleep again. If you open the country too soon, there will be stronger outbreaks that will require more shelter in place, probably for a longer duration than just waiting a bit longer after the first time.

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8 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Hardware stores are open 

I’ve seen church signs that say they are open from 7-7 for prayer, but they are not having services afaik 

hmm, maybe different counties have different sensitivities.  I'm in Montgomery, so lots of stuff was shut down early.  I guess to be fair, I haven't tried to do much besides get food and beer, so really not totally sure.

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4 hours ago, NutterButter said:

even when there's a vaccine, if the efficacy of that is low like it is some years with the flu vaccine, aren't we still susceptible to an outbreak of some degree.    this virus seems to be more contagious and deadlier then influenza so the risks are a lot higher.   

https://cdn.iflscience.com/images/610d4613-1b63-5db1-8203-aa881b3f8c09/content-1488280999-animation-7.gif

This is a really good gif showing what different levels of herd immunity look like. 

There are three main things that make you immune to a disease - natural immunity, having had the virus before, and vaccination.  

A year from today, many people will already have gotten the virus. If there's a vaccine in place, then an outbreak won't be nearly as contagious. 

Some people may still get it, but doctors are working to improve testing in asymptomatic people to cut the time it takes to identify a case and quickly quarantine them. 

If fewer people have it, they don't spread it as easily before they're tested, and they can be isolated immediately after they test positive,  and the symptoms can be treated more effectively when someone is sick, the issue will be largely under control.  It's a multi pronged attack.  

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6 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

How many jobs are ever created or countries prosper out of massive deficit spending? Has that ever been a terrific formula for America moving ahead? 

You’re going to have to define “massive” here. 
We regularly run $1 Trillion deficits and it appears to have been a terrific formula for America. 

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13 minutes ago, FairWarning said:

Factories should open.

This is a big one. I don’t know the answer to what is right but living in the Midwest I won’t consider America “open” until factories are back open. It’s hard to do your job without spreading it but it seems hard to imagine them really staying closed for several months until we have a firm grasp on it. Tough call. 

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5 hours ago, Nugget said:

.  You can kayak and fish in the lake.  Seems like a lot of stuff is still happening.

Just kayaked in the Tennessee River Saturday. 🤷‍♂️ Other than school, parks, sitting at the bar and vacation there isn't a whole lot I can't do. It's just a matter of how.

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5 minutes ago, cheese said:

This is a big one. I don’t know the answer to what is right but living in the Midwest I won’t consider America “open” until factories are back open. It’s hard to do your job without spreading it but it seems hard to imagine them really staying closed for several months until we have a firm grasp on it. Tough call. 

It would depend on the factory also.  An assembly line full of cars, maybe not.  The 10-person shop making parts for GM or Ford, why not?  We could get creative, have two shifts and split the workforce to limit exposure whenever possible.

 

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7 minutes ago, cheese said:

This is a big one. I don’t know the answer to what is right but living in the Midwest I won’t consider America “open” until factories are back open. It’s hard to do your job without spreading it but it seems hard to imagine them really staying closed for several months until we have a firm grasp on it. Tough call. 

It's been a long time since I've been in a factory. Aren't many things automated? Shouldn't people be wearing protective clothing anyway?

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1 minute ago, dorno said:

In my area including the factory I work at we are all considered essential and have been working as usual. Hell, I've been working so much overtime the wife barely recognizes me. I've already worked more overtime this year than the last five combined. 

Food?

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13 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

It's been a long time since I've been in a factory. Aren't many things automated? Shouldn't people be wearing protective clothing anyway?

The automotive plants still can have 5k workers in one factory. Eye protection, safety vest, and steel-toed boots some places but not exactly ppe that is designed to not spread a virus to the people touching parts or tools right after you do or standing right next to you. 
 

I think smaller plants may have an easier time if they can maybe tape off areas or create space between employees on the line.  We might gloves being more common but I don’t know how much that helps. 

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28 minutes ago, cheese said:

The automotive plants still can have 5k workers in one factory. Eye protection, safety vest, and steel-toed boots some places but not exactly ppe that is designed to not spread a virus to the people touching parts or tools right after you do or standing right next to you. 
 

I think smaller plants may have an easier time if they can maybe tape off areas or create space between employees on the line.  We might gloves being more common but I don’t know how much that helps. 

Makes sense.. I'd just think they could implement these measures somewhat easily given resources.

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2 hours ago, bostonfred said:

 

db1-8203-aa881b3f8c09/content-1488280999-animation-7.gif

This is a really good gif showing what different levels of herd immunity look like. 

There are three main things that make you immune to a disease - natural immunity, having had the virus before, and vaccination.  

A year from today, many people will already have gotten the virus. If there's a vaccine in place, then an outbreak won't be nearly as contagious. 

Some people may still get it, but doctors are working to improve testing in asymptomatic people to cut the time it takes to identify a case and quickly quarantine them. 

If fewer people have it, they don't spread it as easily before they're tested, and they can be isolated immediately after they test positive,  and the symptoms can be treated more effectively when someone is sick, the issue will be largely under control.  It's a multi pronged attack.  

I assume this gif is talking about a vaccine with 100% effectiveness (like the polio vaccine) for those that can be vaccinated (whatever that percentage of the population that may be).   Herd immunity is great at protecting those that can't get vaccinated if almost everyone else gets vaccinated and that vaccine is highly effective.  I also assume that we're talking about a virus in covid 19 that varies from season to season so having had it before isn't nearly as beneficial.   Currently, roughly 45% of the population gets the flu vaccine with it having an rough average effectiveness of 50%   Do we make the vaccine compulsory?   You'd think it would be common sense to get it, but not even half the country gets the flu vaccine even though roughly 20k to 60k people die each year from the flu.   Maybe the higher fatality rate (flu is at .1%, is this still roughly at 1% so 10x as deadly?) will compel more people to practice common sense.   Even if everyone that could get it does, if the effectiveness is near the flu vaccine and the fatality rate is still roughly 10x as the flu, during years where the effectiveness is way down like in 2014 where the flu vaccine was only 19% effective, there's gonna be years where multiple 100k's people will die assuming that we don't go into some nationwide lock down every time some hot spot emerges in some part of the country.

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21 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

I assume this gif is talking about a vaccine with 100% effectiveness (like the polio vaccine) for those that can be vaccinated (whatever that percentage of the population that may be).   Herd immunity is great at protecting those that can't get vaccinated if almost everyone else gets vaccinated and that vaccine is highly effective

Did you even click on the gif?

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2 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Did you even click on the gif?

I did.  It doesn't say how effective the vaccine they're referring to; it just says the coverage.    Like I said polio is 100% effective while flu is 50%.   Just b/c you get the flu vaccine doesn't mean you can't get the flu.

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1 hour ago, FairWarning said:

It would depend on the factory also.  An assembly line full of cars, maybe not.  The 10-person shop making parts for GM or Ford, why not?  We could get creative, have two shifts and split the workforce to limit exposure whenever possible.

 

The 10 person shops will be closed until GM and Ford open up.  They have no one to ship their parts to.

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3 minutes ago, bcat01 said:

The 10 person shops will be closed until GM and Ford open up.  They have no one to ship their parts to.

Maybe the factories in China will be open.    This was all a part of their master plan to win the trade war.

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2 hours ago, FairWarning said:

Factories should open.

Hallmark is closed at this point for a total of 5 weeks - with the re-opening maybe pushed out further.  First 2 weeks paid, next three furloughed employees.  Greeting cards might not be essential.

Berry plastics hasn't closed - even when they had a confirmed employee with Covid-19.  The sanitized his building and let the other two run. They make the plastic cups for fast food joints and sports teams.

Our largest call center shut down for 2 days as there was a false claim of Covid - an employee didn't want to come in.  But they are taking medicare and ACA calls.

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30 minutes ago, NutterButter said:

I did.  It doesn't say how effective the vaccine they're referring to; it just says the coverage.    Like I said polio is 100% effective while flu is 50%.

Right so the reason i shared that gif specifically was to show how the rates of infection change the spread. 

I agree with what you're saying about adoption and effectiveness but we only care about actual immunity. We don't care how people became immune, we just care about how many are actually immune. 

So if 50 percent of people get a vaccine that's 50 percent effective or 100 percent get a vaccine that's 25 percent effective it's basically the same thing.

But there are also millions, and probably tens of millions, of people that will have gotten this by the time a vaccine is released.  Adding in some unknown percent of natural immunity, we have a larger population who are immune than the vaccine alone.

Still, to get true herd immunity you'd need effectiveness that we likely won't get from a vaccine or natural/ acquired immunity, so what we care about is slowing the rate of spread. 

And where that's especially relevant is if people also remain quarantined or socially distant. We're basically stimulating herd immunity by removing contact with infectable people instead of making more people uninfecctable. 

The multiplier effect of fewer contacts with sick people, and a smaller percentage of whom get infected when they do make contact, means that we should end up with isolated pockets. And then instead of everyone in quarantine, it's only people who are at risk, while the rest just need to practice social distancing.  

That's the end game imo. Containment with occasional outbreaks. 

As for your second point about this mutating, we obviously don't know what the future will bring but early results suggested that while this might be seasonal (meaning it is easier to catch it in the spring and fall than the summer) and it mutates (meaning there are several current strains), it's not mutating so fast that there will be another novel strain to deal with next year.  The flu is unusually nasty like that.  This might be too, in which case you're right that the situation is a lot worse.  

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6 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Right so the reason i shared that gif specifically was to show how the rates of infection change the spread. 

I agree with what you're saying about adoption and effectiveness but we only care about actual immunity. We don't care how people became immune, we just care about how many are actually immune. 

So if 50 percent of people get a vaccine that's 50 percent effective or 100 percent get a vaccine that's 25 percent effective it's basically the same thing.

But there are also millions, and probably tens of millions, of people that will have gotten this by the time a vaccine is released.  Adding in some unknown percent of natural immunity, we have a larger population who are immune than the vaccine alone.

Still, to get true herd immunity you'd need effectiveness that we likely won't get from a vaccine or natural/ acquired immunity, so what we care about is slowing the rate of spread. 

And where that's especially relevant is if people also remain quarantined or socially distant. We're basically stimulating herd immunity by removing contact with infectable people instead of making more people uninfecctable. 

The multiplier effect of fewer contacts with sick people, and a smaller percentage of whom get infected when they do make contact, means that we should end up with isolated pockets. And then instead of everyone in quarantine, it's only people who are at risk, while the rest just need to practice social distancing.  

That's the end game imo. Containment with occasional outbreaks. 

As for your second point about this mutating, we obviously don't know what the future will bring but early results suggested that while this might be seasonal (meaning it is easier to catch it in the spring and fall than the summer) and it mutates (meaning there are several current strains), it's not mutating so fast that there will be another novel strain to deal with next year.  The flu is unusually nasty like that.  This might be too, in which case you're right that the situation is a lot worse.  

Ok, I'm at least glad that what I said made some sense.   That's not always the case.    The quarantining and contact tracing will certainly play a significant part in tackling this in ways that we currently don't with influenza.   Its going to be interesting to see the process that's implemented to handle the contact tracing and whether there becomes a reluctance to report that you're sick knowing the disruption that it could cause to the the lives of the people that you recently came in contact with.   The mutation of it in a way similar to the flu is really the lynch pin of my biggest concern and this potential false hope with a vaccine.   Hopefully that's not the case.

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I'm 45 and assume I'll be dead pretty soon.  I have asthma and hypertension.  Also have had C-diff so as soon as I pick Corona up I'm toast.  I paid last month's mortgage but probably won't bother anymore.  The good news for my wife and kids is that I have a nice insurance policy. 

My plan is and has been getting my other affairs in order.  I'm trying to get all my film/slides/cd media switched to digital format.  Finishing the basement.  Gonna start writing a book for the kids for after I'm gone.  Giving away possessions and telling wife about the things that are important to me.  I don't want them in a dumpster when I die.  That's it for now.  

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31 minutes ago, PIK95 said:

I'm 45 and assume I'll be dead pretty soon.  I have asthma and hypertension.  Also have had C-diff so as soon as I pick Corona up I'm toast.  I paid last month's mortgage but probably won't bother anymore.  The good news for my wife and kids is that I have a nice insurance policy. 

My plan is and has been getting my other affairs in order.  I'm trying to get all my film/slides/cd media switched to digital format.  Finishing the basement.  Gonna start writing a book for the kids for after I'm gone.  Giving away possessions and telling wife about the things that are important to me.  I don't want them in a dumpster when I die.  That's it for now.  

Uhhh, pik, you need to talk to somebody man. You could have another 45 great years. I know times are hard, but you can get through this. 

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Any plan to open back up should center around antibody testing and extensive continued screening.

1. Start by testing all health care workers and essential workers with significant public contact.

2. Those who are test negative will have regular screenings for temperature and symptoms as well as decreased patient/customer contact when possible.

3. Those that display symptoms or a temperature are sent home on paid leave. Anyone who tests positive for active CV is sent home for a minimum of 2 weeks paid leave. The paid leave in both cases is paid/reimbursed by the federal government provided that the business follows the screening and quarantine protocols.

4. Evaluate the industries that have been mandated to close or severely restrict operations. Rank them based on economic impact, ability to maintain proper social distance and necessity of being open/meet in person.

5. Start opening industries back up a rolling basis with businesses coming back with a fraction of their staff and gradually working back up to full staff. Everyone gets antibody tests and regular screening/work restrictions if negative.

6. Maintain a lot of what we’re currently doing - social distancing, extensive cleaning, face masks and hand hygiene. Keep some of the rule changes such as alcohol delivery and promote WFH.

7. Continue to limit large gathering for the foreseeable future.

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1 hour ago, PIK95 said:

I'm 45 and assume I'll be dead pretty soon.  I have asthma and hypertension.  Also have had C-diff so as soon as I pick Corona up I'm toast.  I paid last month's mortgage but probably won't bother anymore.  The good news for my wife and kids is that I have a nice insurance policy. 

My plan is and has been getting my other affairs in order.  I'm trying to get all my film/slides/cd media switched to digital format.  Finishing the basement.  Gonna start writing a book for the kids for after I'm gone.  Giving away possessions and telling wife about the things that are important to me.  I don't want them in a dumpster when I die.  That's it for now.  

You're a good dude pik. Stay safe and talk with someone. I get the feeling, but you're probably going to be okay even if you did get the virus.

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5 hours ago, huthut said:

Opening up the country is like trying to sneak out of a little kids bedroom when they fall asleep. If you do it too soon, it will take longer. You have to let them get into a deeper sleep first, because if you rush out and they wake up you have to start all over again. Faster to wait 10 minutes for them to be sound asleep, than to try and leave after 3 minutes and have them wake up and spend 20 minutes trying to get them asleep again. If you open the country too soon, there will be stronger outbreaks that will require more shelter in place, probably for a longer duration than just waiting a bit longer after the first time.

As I stated up top and I really appreciate your POV, it's not a debate about when we re-open. Some of the country and certain sectors or businesses should be open right now. If workers can be trimming gardens and people can still play golf without a golf cart then the beaches should be open to those who can follow social distancing. Other businesses outside of just big retail grocery stores can mitigate and operate, give them the opportunity and give people who want to work an opportunity to go out and do that. 

-Duly noted Hut, do not agree with the analogy at all. I do think schools should remain closed until the Fall, outside of that I am not down with using children as a way to explain how adults need to react and behave. Protect them by keeping the schools closed, maybe some parents will enjoy home schooling or at least appreciate the job teachers do when they drop them off in the morning every day. As far as some folks are concerned, little Susie or little Johnny can cry themselves to sleep and quickly adapt. Again using children to tug on heart strings is reserved for other threads, we're dealing with adults that can make decisions for themselves. 

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5 hours ago, bostonfred said:

https://cdn.iflscience.com/images/610d4613-1b63-5db1-8203-aa881b3f8c09/content-1488280999-animation-7.gif

This is a really good gif showing what different levels of herd immunity look like. 

There are three main things that make you immune to a disease - natural immunity, having had the virus before, and vaccination.  

A year from today, many people will already have gotten the virus. If there's a vaccine in place, then an outbreak won't be nearly as contagious. 

Some people may still get it, but doctors are working to improve testing in asymptomatic people to cut the time it takes to identify a case and quickly quarantine them. 

If fewer people have it, they don't spread it as easily before they're tested, and they can be isolated immediately after they test positive,  and the symptoms can be treated more effectively when someone is sick, the issue will be largely under control.  It's a multi pronged attack.  

There are scenarios where there isn’t widespread immunity. 

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