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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Justin Herbert, Chargers


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Looked like a legit NFL QB to me. Went head to head with Mahomes and almost pulled it out. 

It's Mahomes 2.0 for sure. Congrats if you drafted him.

Very happy I got him late 2nd in a orphan dynasty league that only has Brees at QB. Got that hole fixed quickly.

10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

The concern this week is not that Herbert can't have his way just a lot of worry that ultra conservative Lynn will turtle up if/when they get up. I feel like Herbert is going to need to have a big first half.

Great point! Lynn is easily the worst coach in the league. He needs to go badly. 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

The concern this week is not that Herbert can't have his way just a lot of worry that ultra conservative Lynn will turtle up if/when they get up. I feel like Herbert is going to need to have a big first half.

You are over estimating the Chargers here.  They will find a way to make it close.  I will be shocked if it isn't. 

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4 hours ago, The Show said:

Great point! Lynn is easily the worst coach in the league. He needs to go badly. 

Mike McCarthy is still coaching and so is some guy named Adam Gase who's coaching opposite Lynn this week 

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5 hours ago, Jail said:

You are over estimating the Chargers here.  They will find a way to make it close.  I will be shocked if it isn't. 

Jets plus the pts is the lock of the week. Lynn will find a way to !?&$ it up. 

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8 minutes ago, The Show said:

You might regret that. 

I almost did last week because of the weather in GB...glad I didn't.

I also might regret sitting a guy that keeps putting up 300 yards and 3 TDs (or 2 passing and one rushing like last week).  I may still change things (if Davante can't go and Lazard).  But if they are up...the guy is putting up an MVP year...has been money all year long.  I know Herbert has been good too.  The swing for Herbert will be if I think his upside for a big big week is higher...risk vs reward type of thing after getting a whopping 3 points of Zane G last night.

 

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10 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

after getting a whopping 3 points of Zane G last night.

I hate chasing kicker duds. Just to commiserate. Nothing like getting a high-profile kicker in a prolific offense and they go on to score a measly three touchdowns but otherwise operate in fits and starts.

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I hate chasing kicker duds. Just to commiserate. Nothing like getting a high-profile kicker in a prolific offense and they go on to score a measly three touchdowns but otherwise operate in fits and starts.

Yeah...understand that...had several moves could have made playing kicker matchups...but liked this matchup and that offense to at least get a FG or two.  Seems they only crossed midefield when they scored TDs last night.  Painful to watch when you have a team's kicker.

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4 hours ago, sho nuff said:

I almost did last week because of the weather in GB...glad I didn't.

I also might regret sitting a guy that keeps putting up 300 yards and 3 TDs (or 2 passing and one rushing like last week).  I may still change things (if Davante can't go and Lazard).  But if they are up...the guy is putting up an MVP year...has been money all year long.  I know Herbert has been good too.  The swing for Herbert will be if I think his upside for a big big week is higher...risk vs reward type of thing after getting a whopping 3 points of Zane G last night.

 

I'm in the same boat have Rodgers as well as Herbert. Theres a few games I wish I had put him in over Rodgers but they were also tougher match ups for Herbert and Rodgers is having an MVP like season again. I'm in the top 3 but tied for 2nd in my keeper league on a PTS advantage. If I was in first and guaranteed bye I might play around and started Herbert. 

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1 hour ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I just did bench Rodgers at last minute earlier today and went with Herbert.  This kid is amazing.  

I realize it was the Jets he was up against today but he did look very very good. The Chargers don’t have much of a running game right now either which is helping inflate his numbers. Where does Herbert rank among the elite QBs going forward?

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13 minutes ago, The Show said:

I realize it was the Jets he was up against today but he did look very very good. The Chargers don’t have much of a running game right now either which is helping inflate his numbers. Where does Herbert rank among the elite QBs going forward?

I'd only have Mahomes ahead of him in dynasty.

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I know we're all enamored with the statistical results, the big arm, the downfield dominance, the vision, the consistency, all that...

It's his mental toughness that really stands out at his age for me. He has the same thing that Tom Brady had when he took over for Drew Bledsoe, ice in his veins. My only concern is that I wonder if Covid and the limited crowds when going on the road has made more of an impact on him in this regard relating to mental toughness. But that concern is minute for me in this very moment. Amazing player.

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On 11/23/2020 at 1:24 PM, Stat Correction said:

Will likely push Kyler for the second QB off the draft board next season.

I was just thinking the same thing. Do we see regression or progression for him next year? Great division for shootouts and you gotta figure Ekeler only helps him even more. 

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3 minutes ago, The Show said:

I was just thinking the same thing. Do we see regression or progression for him next year? Great division for shootouts and you gotta figure Ekeler only helps him even more. 

Regression. He's on a 16 game pace for 4800/39. I doubt he will remain on that pace for the rest of this season, much less in 2021. Too many factors in play, such as:

  • Changes in offensive supporting cast - Henry is a UFA after the season; Mike Williams is playing on an expensive 5th year option; only 4 OL under contract next season, and one is Trai Turner, who can be released with zero dead cap to free up $11.5M in cap space - overall, changes could be negative or neutral
  • Changes in defensive and special teams supporting cast - both units could improve, reducing necessity for Herbert to carry the team and attempt as many passes 
  • Changes in coaching staff and thus offensive scheme - IMO likelihood is high for coaching change; who knows what the effect will be on Herbert, impossible to predict at this point
  • Second year - opposing coaches have more film, better defensive schemes against, etc.
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On 11/23/2020 at 2:24 PM, Stat Correction said:

Will likely push Kyler for the second QB off the draft board next season.

I think you're too optimistic.  Mahomes might have a say in that and there are other quality QBs too.   And, regardless of Herbert's true talent level, there will be enough doubt based on a limited track record to push him down some.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Regression. He's on a 16 game pace for 4800/39. I doubt he will remain on that pace for the rest of this season, much less in 2021. Too many factors in play, such as:

  • Changes in offensive supporting cast - Henry is a UFA after the season; Mike Williams is playing on an expensive 5th year option; only 4 OL under contract next season, and one is Trai Turner, who can be released with zero dead cap to free up $11.5M in cap space - overall, changes could be negative or neutral
  • Changes in defensive and special teams supporting cast - both units could improve, reducing necessity for Herbert to carry the team and attempt as many passes 
  • Changes in coaching staff and thus offensive scheme - IMO likelihood is high for coaching change; who knows what the effect will be on Herbert, impossible to predict at this point
  • Second year - opposing coaches have more film, better defensive schemes against, etc.

All of this seems reasonable but if we’re going to state the negatives how about some positives? Gaining experience, getting more comfortable, game slowing down for him, acquiring an actual head coach, and getting back arguably the best receiving RB in the NFL to name a few. 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Regression. He's on a 16 game pace for 4800/39. I doubt he will remain on that pace for the rest of this season, much less in 2021. Too many factors in play, such as:

  • Changes in offensive supporting cast - Henry is a UFA after the season; Mike Williams is playing on an expensive 5th year option; only 4 OL under contract next season, and one is Trai Turner, who can be released with zero dead cap to free up $11.5M in cap space - overall, changes could be negative or neutral
  • Changes in defensive and special teams supporting cast - both units could improve, reducing necessity for Herbert to carry the team and attempt as many passes 
  • Changes in coaching staff and thus offensive scheme - IMO likelihood is high for coaching change; who knows what the effect will be on Herbert, impossible to predict at this point
  • Second year - opposing coaches have more film, better defensive schemes against, etc.

I would guess slight regression, mostly because he's been so damn good so far that it's hard to get much better. That said, there are legit counters to every one of your points:

  • Williams is under contract for next year, and Henry isn't a huge piece of the offense so he can be replaced (if necessary). They are in good shape with cap space, according to Over The Cap they have the 8th most heading into next year. He'll still have Allen and Ekeler should be back healthy. Overall, changes are just as likely to be positive as they are to be neutral or negative
  • Both units could improve, or they could stay the same or get worse
  • Any coaching changes seems more likely to have a positive effect than a negative one
  • Sure, but he also gets a full offseason to prepare instead of a covid-plagued one
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On 11/23/2020 at 1:24 PM, Stat Correction said:

Will likely push Kyler for the second QB off the draft board next season.

 

39 minutes ago, DropKick said:

I think you're too optimistic.  Mahomes might have a say in that and there are other quality QBs too.  

I was assuming Mahomes would be first, with Herbert potentially pushing Kyler for #2.

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1 hour ago, Stat Correction said:

I was assuming Mahomes would be first, with Herbert potentially pushing Kyler for #2.

Sorry, misread that... key point is people will have lots of pessimism - regression, not sneaking up on teams, etc.   Don't have to be valid but I see him in the 6-10 range.

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9 minutes ago, DropKick said:

Sorry, misread that... key point is people will have lots of pessimism - regression, not sneaking up on teams, etc.   Don't have to be valid but I see him in the 6-10 range.

After the painfully obvious sophomore-season regression of Lamar, I can appreciate the pessimism. 

That said, I pray that you are correct about Herbert going in the 6-10 range of QB's next season.

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Figured it was time to come here and say, as one of Herbert's biggest detractors before the season, that I was totally wrong.

Kid is legit.  He deserves to be on a better team.

He will be. They're close. Few pieces. New head coach.

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14 hours ago, The Show said:

All of this seems reasonable but if we’re going to state the negatives how about some positives? Gaining experience, getting more comfortable, game slowing down for him, acquiring an actual head coach, and getting back arguably the best receiving RB in the NFL to name a few. 

Fair points, though a coaching staff change may or may not be positive for his statistics.

14 hours ago, humpback said:

Williams is under contract for next year, and Henry isn't a huge piece of the offense so he can be replaced (if necessary). They are in good shape with cap space, according to Over The Cap they have the 8th most heading into next year. He'll still have Allen and Ekeler should be back healthy. Overall, changes are just as likely to be positive as they are to be neutral or negative

Comments:

  • Yes, Williams is under contract for next year on his 5th year option, meaning the team has to pay him ~$14M. As a Chargers fan, IMO he isn't worth it, and dedicating that to him on top of Allen's big contract invests too much cap space in the WR position. That said, I think the most likely outcome is Williams is back, and the team may very well try to sign him to a multi-year contract to lower that 2021 cap number.
  • Disagree on Henry. He is currently in the top 6 in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving first downs among NFL TEs this season. He is #5 on the team in snaps, behind Herbert and 3 OL, and he is #2 in receptions and receiving first downs and #3 in receiving yards and receiving TDs. Among Chargers players with at least 10 targets on the season, only Jalen Guyton has a higher NFL passer rating when targeted... yes, Henry's is better than Allen, Williams, and everyone else. I assume they will re-sign Henry, which impacts the next point.
  • They are in good 2021 cap shape relative to the rest of the league, but it's not going to go as far as it might seem, as I posted here. It could definitely help, but the most likely outcome is that any improvement around Herbert on offense will likely need to come through the draft... but, if they are not drafting high enough to take T Sewell, which seems likely at this point, they will probably go Edge and CB with their early picks. Agree that this is an unknown, though, so hard to predict definitively at this time.
  • Agree that Ekeler's return will be a positive for sure.
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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Fair points, though a coaching staff change may or may not be positive for his statistics.

Comments:

  • Yes, Williams is under contract for next year on his 5th year option, meaning the team has to pay him ~$14M. As a Chargers fan, IMO he isn't worth it, and dedicating that to him on top of Allen's big contract invests too much cap space in the WR position. That said, I think the most likely outcome is Williams is back, and the team may very well try to sign him to a multi-year contract to lower that 2021 cap number.
  • Disagree on Henry. He is currently in the top 6 in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving first downs among NFL TEs this season. He is #5 on the team in snaps, behind Herbert and 3 OL, and he is #2 in receptions and receiving first downs and #3 in receiving yards and receiving TDs. Among Chargers players with at least 10 targets on the season, only Jalen Guyton has a higher NFL passer rating when targeted... yes, Henry's is better than Allen, Williams, and everyone else. I assume they will re-sign Henry, which impacts the next point.
  • They are in good 2021 cap shape relative to the rest of the league, but it's not going to go as far as it might seem, as I posted here. It could definitely help, but the most likely outcome is that any improvement around Herbert on offense will likely need to come through the draft... but, if they are not drafting high enough to take T Sewell, which seems likely at this point, they will probably go Edge and CB with their early picks. Agree that this is an unknown, though, so hard to predict definitively at this time.
  • Agree that Ekeler's return will be a positive for sure.
  • When your current coaches are bad, the odds of a coaching change being positive are pretty high. I can't fathom any new coach coming in and saying "I know that Herbert kid had one of the best rookie seasons ever, but I'm going to put the shackles on him this year".
  • The point is Williams' $14M salary is already accounted for in their 2021 cap space, so any extension to lower that number can only be a positive.
  • That includes week 1 with Tyrod, which was his 2nd best game of the year. In the 9 games with Herbert, Henry is averaging 4 catches for 40 yards and .33 TDs per game. That's replaceable if he doesn't re-sign, and if he does it will likely be at something similar to his current cap hit. Good player, but certainly not crushing if he leaves.
  • That's the thing, cap space is all relative. When they have more money to spend than ~75% of their competition, that gives them an advantage in signing better/more players. Heck, ~1/3rd of the league is projected to have negative cap space right now, certainly seems like there's going to be a lot more cap casualties than normal this offseason. There's no reason to believe they won't spend that money or high draft picks on offense, that's completely TBD right now.
  • IMO adding Ekeler is a bigger positive than (potentially) losing Henry. If they keep Henry or find someone similar it would be a huge net positive.
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Chargers QB ‘Herbie’ is fully loaded and rolling (November 7)

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Never mind the cute Volkswagen Beetle of Disney movie fame. The NFL has its own “Herbie,” who’s fully loaded and fast becoming a star.

Less than two months into his NFL career, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is turning heads around the league. It might not be an overstatement to say he’s off to one of the most promising starts by a rookie quarterback in this or any other generation.

Or hadn’t you heard? Herbert still is flying somewhat under the radar as the 2020 NFL season hits the midway point.

Yet by almost any measure, the 22-year-old, pimply faced native of Oregon has performed far above his experience level, far beyond preseason expectations, and far ahead of nearly any rookie NFL quarterback you can name off the top of your head.

He’s one of the hottest QBs in the league right now, period.

Since the beginning of October the 6-foot-6, 237-pounder has thrown 13 touchdown passes — as many as Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay (even after his four-TD night Thursday at San Francisco) and more than the 12 thrown by both the leading NFL MVP candidate, Russell Wilson of Seattle, and reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City.

Also, Herbert’s 13 TDs in October and early November nearly double those thrown both Drew Brees of New Orleans and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson of Baltimore (seven apiece), and are more than twice as many as Herbert’s only QB competition so far for NFL offensive rookie of the year: No. 1 overall draft pick Joe Burrow of Cincinnati (who has six).

Only a resurgent Tom Brady of Tampa Bay has thrown more touchdown passes (14) since September ended than Herbert.

Another milestone? Herbert has thrown for at least three TDs in each of his last four games, a rookie feat previously accomplished by only one player: Houston’s Deshaun Watson in 2017.

Pick your favourite QB stat and Herbert, the No. 6 overall draft pick this past April, ranks among the NFL’s best this season. Since his emergency ascension to starter in Week 2 Herbert is fourth in pass yards per game (303.3), seventh in touchdowns (15), eighth in passer rating (104.5, just ahead of Brady and just behind Brees), 10 th in yards per attempt (8.0), 12 th in fewest interceptions (five) and 12 th in completion percentage (67.4).

In the clutch Herbert has been even better. He has a 71.7% completion percentage and 98.9 passer rating in fourth quarters, plus a scintillating 116.2 passer rating on third downs; only Mahomes (nine) and Brady (eight) have thrown more third-down TD passes than Herbert’s seven, but Brady and Mahomes have played in eight games whereas Herbert has played in just six.

Mind-blowing, really.

These are all highly unlikely accomplishments for any rookie, let alone one who had no May or June system-acclimation practices, no preseason games in August, and a condensed summer training camp in which he got few first-team reps (because Tyrod Taylor was the Chargers’ intended starter).

Is Herbert for real? Can he be that good? Most importantly, can he sustain it?

Before Herbert’s sixth NFL game last Sunday — a 31-30, last-play loss at Denver — I spoke with Greg Cosell, NFL Films senior producer and one of the most respected analysts of quarterback play anywhere, inside or outside the league.

“If you’re just talking about all the physical and athletic traits you would like to see in an NFL quarterback in today’s game, he checks every single box,” Cosell said. “He’s big, he’s physically imposing, he’s got a big arm but he can throw with touch, he can run, he’s highly athletic. And he’s competitive. He’s tough. I think that’s in your DNA; you can’t teach a guy to stand in there and deliver and take a shot. So he’s got all the traits.

“Now you get into those other things. What will happen as teams start to do more (complicated) things defensively? How will he handle that? We don’t know the answer. So I could sit here and say, ‘Well, he’s going to come down to earth,’ but he’s really talented. If you wanted to build a quarterback in a laboratory, he’s kind of that guy … There’s nothing not to like.”

Cosell said he asked a respected league talent evaluator the following question: “What’s the difference between Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence?”

Lawrence is the superstar Clemson University quarterback viewed as the likeliest No. 1 overall selection in next April’s NFL Draft — maybe a generational talent.

“The guy I spoke to said, ‘Actually, Herbert’s more talented.’ ”

How about that?

The Chargers’ plan for 2020 was to start Taylor and see what happens. They had no desire to rush Herbert. Fate, however, intervened.

Literally minutes before kickoff in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs — the Chargers’ home-field debut at $5-billion SoFi Stadium — Taylor suddenly couldn’t play. A mis-injected painkiller needle punctured one of his lungs.

Grab your helmet, kid, you’re going in. And in Herbert went. He hasn’t come out since, even after Taylor’s full recovery a few weeks later. How could Chargers coaches yank him? After his fourth pro start Herbert had nearly outdueled Mahomes (in a 23-20 overtime loss), Brady (two weeks later in a 38-31 loss) and Brees (eight days after that in a 30-27 loss).

The Chargers are 1-5 since Herbert took over, yes, but none of those defeats are on him; L.A. has scored 31, 30, 39 and 30 points since September.

In every game Herbert routinely makes smart decisions and defence-deflating plays, even when flushed from the pocket, left or right. His two TD throws in the final minute of the first half at Denver last Sunday were textbook, time-extending plays.

Few rookies have ever got it all together as quickly as Herbert. Almost everyone is surprised.

Cosell said back in the winter he wasn’t sure, based on Herbert’s game tape at the University of Oregon, whether he could be a “true anticipation thrower,” which is mandatory in the pro game. That is, a passer often must not wait for the receiver to get open; you throw him open.

“There were throws he was a little late on in college that, in the NFL, could become an increasing problem,” Cosell said. “I thought that at times, too, his ball placement was not as precise as it needed to be.”

But for the most part those issues have not been detectable in Herbert’s pro work, Cosell said.

“Chargers coaches have done a really good job with him,” Cosell said, in reference to offensive-minded head coach Anthony Lynn, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and quarterbacks coach Pep Hamilton.

One thing that cannot be coached into Herbert, or any QB, is what one might call athletic fearlessness. Herbert has it, and Cosell said it radiates in his performances.

“I think that’s in your DNA as well,” Cosell said. “I don’t think you can teach a guy to WANT to make really tough throws — challenging throws, tight-window throws, throws where the degree of difficulty is much higher. You can show guys how to do that on film, and you can talk about it in practice, but I think when you get into the game, guys either turn it loose or don’t.”

Of course, the downside to such fearlessness can be a high interception count, or low completion rate. Neither has afflicted Herbert thus far.

“I think he will have a game coming up where he throws maybe three picks,” a prescient Cosell said last week, “because he is so willing to turn it loose. He’ll misread something somewhere along the line.”

As it happened, Herbert got picked off by the Broncos on his very first throw last Sunday — a forced throw, his first of two interceptions on the day.

What impressed veteran Chargers offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga — long-time right tackle in front of Rodgers in Green Bay — is that Herbert just shook it off.

“He didn’t shy away from anything,” Bulaga said this week. “He went right back at it … You don’t see him get shy once those negative things happen. And that’s a good sign for a young guy, (whether) it’s a quarterback or any position. I think he’s done a great job, and it’s been fun to see him grow from week to week.”

For his part, Herbert this week said:

“Adversity’s going to happen. I’m going to make a bunch of mistakes in a game, I’m going to throw incompletions and interceptions. It’s all about how you react to that. And there’s so much football to played, so much time left, that you can’t harp on or dwell on one play. You have to move on, and find a way to get back after it and make up for that play.”

Bulaga was asked to compare Herbert to a young Rodgers.

“I’m not going to compare Herbie and Aaron. I’m just not going to do that. But I’ll say this. Justin has shown so much poise, from that first start against Kansas City til now, in just his growth and comfort not only once the ball is in his hands, but in the huddle and taking control of things. Seeing that growth has been fun, and seeing his confidence grow.”

Herbie?

“That’s what I call him,” Bulaga said. “I don’t know if that’s what everyone else calls him. It’s quick and it’s easy. … I think there was a movie called Herbie Fully Loaded… So, Herbie Fully Loaded. Why not?”

It sure fits.

 

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Justin Herbert completed 31-of-52 passes for 316 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in Los Angeles' 27-17 Week 12 loss to Buffalo.

It was an historic play-calling performance from Anthony Lynn, who showed complete incompetence with multiple wasted timeouts in both halves, a handful of elementary (and of course, failed) runs up the gut on 4th-and-short situations, and worst of all, a running back carry from inside the five-yard line with zero timeouts and only :20 seconds remaining while trailing by 10 at the end of regulation. Lynn kept fantasy players happy by keeping Austin Ekeler on the field for 25-of-34 backfield touches and a team-high 30.7% target share in the latter's first game back from injury, but inserted Josh Kelley (7/35/1) at inopportune times and ultimately lost this one with his own poor decision-making during early downs and, quite frankly, every minute of the game. Herbert will keep afloat in fantasy on a weekly basis due to his own elite skillset, but managers should expect these blips on the radar as long as Lynn is at the helm. Expect the Chargers to get vehemently out-coached in Week 13 against the Patriots.

- Rotoworld

he mad

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On 11/25/2020 at 1:38 PM, humpback said:

When your current coaches are bad, the odds of a coaching change being positive are pretty high. I can't fathom any new coach coming in and saying "I know that Herbert kid had one of the best rookie seasons ever, but I'm going to put the shackles on him this year".

Coaching change can be good, neutral, or bad for a QB, from a statistical/fantasy perspective. I wouldn't expect a bad outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility.

On 11/25/2020 at 1:38 PM, humpback said:

The point is Williams' $14M salary is already accounted for in their 2021 cap space, so any extension to lower that number can only be a positive.

Yes, pretty sure this is aligned with my post.

On 11/25/2020 at 1:38 PM, humpback said:

That includes week 1 with Tyrod, which was his 2nd best game of the year. In the 9 games with Herbert, Henry is averaging 4 catches for 40 yards and .33 TDs per game. That's replaceable if he doesn't re-sign, and if he does it will likely be at something similar to his current cap hit. Good player, but certainly not crushing if he leaves.

IMO you are pretty far off base if you think the Chargers have any intention of letting Henry walk. Of course, they could justifiably fire both HC Lynn and GM Telesco any time now, so we don't know how their replacements would view Henry. I'd be very surprised if he isnt' back.

On 11/25/2020 at 1:38 PM, humpback said:

That's the thing, cap space is all relative. When they have more money to spend than ~75% of their competition, that gives them an advantage in signing better/more players. Heck, ~1/3rd of the league is projected to have negative cap space right now, certainly seems like there's going to be a lot more cap casualties than normal this offseason. There's no reason to believe they won't spend that money or high draft picks on offense, that's completely TBD right now.

Yes and no. They still have to pay their draft picks and PPE players, account for the practice squad, and reserve cap space for 2021 injury replacements. Then they have to account for how they fill the remaining positions on the roster, whether via internal or external free agents. Sure, hopefully the free agent market will be depressed, which could help them. IMO it depends a lot upon whether or not Telesco and/or Lynn are back, since their views obviously heavily influence free agent decisions.

On 11/25/2020 at 1:38 PM, humpback said:

IMO adding Ekeler is a bigger positive than (potentially) losing Henry. If they keep Henry or find someone similar it would be a huge net positive.

I agree, today. But Ekeler and Henry obviously play different positions. Ekeler will ensure good quality RB play, as long as he is healthy. But the team also needs good quality TE play. If they let Henry go, who will provide that?

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6 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Coaching change can be good, neutral, or bad for a QB, from a statistical/fantasy perspective. I wouldn't expect a bad outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility.

Yes, pretty sure this is aligned with my post.

IMO you are pretty far off base if you think the Chargers have any intention of letting Henry walk. Of course, they could justifiably fire both HC Lynn and GM Telesco any time now, so we don't know how their replacements would view Henry. I'd be very surprised if he isnt' back.

Yes and no. They still have to pay their draft picks and PPE players, account for the practice squad, and reserve cap space for 2021 injury replacements. Then they have to account for how they fill the remaining positions on the roster, whether via internal or external free agents. Sure, hopefully the free agent market will be depressed, which could help them. IMO it depends a lot upon whether or not Telesco and/or Lynn are back, since their views obviously heavily influence free agent decisions.

I agree, today. But Ekeler and Henry obviously play different positions. Ekeler will ensure good quality RB play, as long as he is healthy. But the team also needs good quality TE play. If they let Henry go, who will provide that?

Henry is replaceable in my opinion. He had a couple of really bad drops out there today. His skills seem like they could be replaced quite easily. Zach Ertz for a year or 2 comes to mind. 

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9 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Coaching change can be good, neutral, or bad for a QB, from a statistical/fantasy perspective. I wouldn't expect a bad outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility.

Yes, pretty sure this is aligned with my post.

IMO you are pretty far off base if you think the Chargers have any intention of letting Henry walk. Of course, they could justifiably fire both HC Lynn and GM Telesco any time now, so we don't know how their replacements would view Henry. I'd be very surprised if he isnt' back.

Yes and no. They still have to pay their draft picks and PPE players, account for the practice squad, and reserve cap space for 2021 injury replacements. Then they have to account for how they fill the remaining positions on the roster, whether via internal or external free agents. Sure, hopefully the free agent market will be depressed, which could help them. IMO it depends a lot upon whether or not Telesco and/or Lynn are back, since their views obviously heavily influence free agent decisions.

I agree, today. But Ekeler and Henry obviously play different positions. Ekeler will ensure good quality RB play, as long as he is healthy. But the team also needs good quality TE play. If they let Henry go, who will provide that?

Remember, we're discussing expectations for regression or progression from this year, so we're trying to compare what next year will look like relative to this year. Pretty much any change can be good, neutral, or bad, you just seem to be focused more on the bad so I countered some of your points. That said, when something is currently bad, a change has more likelihood of having a positive impact than a negative one. Let's put it this way, there isn't much room to go down in terms of coaching, but plenty of room to go up (and could go up massively if they bring in some hotshot offensive mind). So of course we can't know what impact there will be (just like we can't with any of these changes), but the odds of a coaching change being either neutral or positive>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative in this case. Sure, negative is within the realm of possibility, but seems pretty unlikely considering the current low baseline.

Not sure why you really brought up Williams's cap number then since it's already accounted for. Any extension has an extremely high chance of lowering that number, so the odds of that being positive>>>>>>neutral>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative compared to the status quo.

Again, cap space is all relative, and everyone else has to do those things as well. The FA market is going to be dictated by how much teams have to spend, and the fact of the matter is they are in a better position than ~75% of the league. So, chance of that being positive>>>>>>>neutral>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative. If Telesco and/or Lynn are back, that would be neutral, and if they're gone, that's positive/neutral>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative as well because of the very low current baseline.

I never even hinted that I think the Chargers have any intention of letting Henry walk, just said that it wouldn't be crushing to Herbert's prospects if they did. Yes, they play different positions, but again, we're comparing next year to this year. They didn't have Ekeler for the vast majority of this season and likely will for next year so that is likely to be a big boost. Worst case scenario they lose Henry and replace him with a complete nobody, but even if that happens I think the addition of Ekeler would more than offset the loss of Henry. That's very unlikely to happen, most likely is both are back, which would be a huge plus. Next most likely is Ekeler is back and Henry is replaced with a decent TE, which would still be a positive (compared to so far this year without Ekeler). I like Henry, but think you are too high on him- he isn't elite. IMO they could get ~85% of his production out of several guys who will be available in the offseason for a lot cheaper, but like you said, he'll probably be back so it's moot.

Obviously this is all speculation at this point, I just think when you look at everything in context, his overall situation next year is much more likely to be neutral to positive than negative when compared to this year.

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What's the deal with the change to Chargers' offensive identity with return of Austin Ekeler?  I noticed the galling tendency by Herbert on targeting Ekeler with short passes.  Herbert does best when spreading the passes to every receiver especially Keenan Allen. For whatever reason, they went away in their last game vs. Bills. 

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4 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

What's the deal with the change to Chargers' offensive identity with return of Austin Ekeler?  I noticed the galling tendency by Herbert on targeting Ekeler with short passes.  Herbert does best when spreading the passes to every receiver especially Keenan Allen. For whatever reason, they went away in their last game vs. Bills. 

I watched every minute of that game and was thinking the same. I’m thinking it’s just a one off and Herbert will retreat back to what he was. You never know with Lynn though. 

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5 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

What's the deal with the change to Chargers' offensive identity with return of Austin Ekeler?  I noticed the galling tendency by Herbert on targeting Ekeler with short passes.  Herbert does best when spreading the passes to every receiver especially Keenan Allen. For whatever reason, they went away in their last game vs. Bills. 

Play calling was awful in that game. Several up the gut runs with Ekeler on 4th and 2 and then that final drive was bizarre with the play calling, clock management with no timeouts. 

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30 minutes ago, Teezee said:

Bill going to try and confuse the hell out of him this week. Like an NFL initiation

Agreed.  Except I think Flores already initiated him a few weeks ago.  I'm sure he'll see a lot of the same confusing last second look changes.  It will be good to see if Herbert can improve now that he has seen it. 

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