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QB Justin Herbert, LAC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Well, they've lost plenty of times before after having a lead so hopefully not. And the Jets were serviceable on offense against NE before the bye.
DJackson10
Footballguy
Mike McCarthy is still coaching and so is some guy named Adam Gase who's coaching opposite Lynn this weekThe Show said:
sho nuff
Footballguy
I almost did last week because of the weather in GB...glad I didn't.
I also might regret sitting a guy that keeps putting up 300 yards and 3 TDs (or 2 passing and one rushing like last week). I may still change things (if Davante can't go and Lazard). But if they are up...the guy is putting up an MVP year...has been money all year long. I know Herbert has been good too. The swing for Herbert will be if I think his upside for a big big week is higher...risk vs reward type of thing after getting a whopping 3 points of Zane G last night.
rockaction
Footballguy
I hate chasing kicker duds. Just to commiserate. Nothing like getting a high-profile kicker in a prolific offense and they go on to score a measly three touchdowns but otherwise operate in fits and starts.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Yeah...understand that...had several moves could have made playing kicker matchups...but liked this matchup and that offense to at least get a FG or two. Seems they only crossed midefield when they scored TDs last night. Painful to watch when you have a team's kicker.
DJackson10
Footballguy
I'm in the same boat have Rodgers as well as Herbert. Theres a few games I wish I had put him in over Rodgers but they were also tougher match ups for Herbert and Rodgers is having an MVP like season again. I'm in the top 3 but tied for 2nd in my keeper league on a PTS advantage. If I was in first and guaranteed bye I might play around and started Herbert.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
So I guess he didn't completely lose his mojo with the haircut?
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I just did bench Rodgers at last minute earlier today and went with Herbert. This kid is amazing.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I realize it was the Jets he was up against today but he did look very very good. The Chargers don’t have much of a running game right now either which is helping inflate his numbers. Where does Herbert rank among the elite QBs going forward?
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I don’t play in dynasty but having watched Herbert every week I agree with you. This kid is sensational
Teezee
Footballguy
I know we're all enamored with the statistical results, the big arm, the downfield dominance, the vision, the consistency, all that...
It's his mental toughness that really stands out at his age for me. He has the same thing that Tom Brady had when he took over for Drew Bledsoe, ice in his veins. My only concern is that I wonder if Covid and the limited crowds when going on the road has made more of an impact on him in this regard relating to mental toughness. But that concern is minute for me in this very moment. Amazing player.
It's his mental toughness that really stands out at his age for me. He has the same thing that Tom Brady had when he took over for Drew Bledsoe, ice in his veins. My only concern is that I wonder if Covid and the limited crowds when going on the road has made more of an impact on him in this regard relating to mental toughness. But that concern is minute for me in this very moment. Amazing player.
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Will likely push Kyler for the second QB off the draft board next season.
I was just thinking the same thing. Do we see regression or progression for him next year? Great division for shootouts and you gotta figure Ekeler only helps him even more.
Tau837
Footballguy
Regression. He's on a 16 game pace for 4800/39. I doubt he will remain on that pace for the rest of this season, much less in 2021. Too many factors in play, such as:
- Changes in offensive supporting cast - Henry is a UFA after the season; Mike Williams is playing on an expensive 5th year option; only 4 OL under contract next season, and one is Trai Turner, who can be released with zero dead cap to free up $11.5M in cap space - overall, changes could be negative or neutral
- Changes in defensive and special teams supporting cast - both units could improve, reducing necessity for Herbert to carry the team and attempt as many passes
- Changes in coaching staff and thus offensive scheme - IMO likelihood is high for coaching change; who knows what the effect will be on Herbert, impossible to predict at this point
- Second year - opposing coaches have more film, better defensive schemes against, etc.
Tau837
Footballguy
DropKick
Footballguy
I think you're too optimistic. Mahomes might have a say in that and there are other quality QBs too. And, regardless of Herbert's true talent level, there will be enough doubt based on a limited track record to push him down some.
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All of this seems reasonable but if we’re going to state the negatives how about some positives? Gaining experience, getting more comfortable, game slowing down for him, acquiring an actual head coach, and getting back arguably the best receiving RB in the NFL to name a few.
I would guess slight regression, mostly because he's been so damn good so far that it's hard to get much better. That said, there are legit counters to every one of your points:
- Williams is under contract for next year, and Henry isn't a huge piece of the offense so he can be replaced (if necessary). They are in good shape with cap space, according to Over The Cap they have the 8th most heading into next year. He'll still have Allen and Ekeler should be back healthy. Overall, changes are just as likely to be positive as they are to be neutral or negative
- Both units could improve, or they could stay the same or get worse
- Any coaching changes seems more likely to have a positive effect than a negative one
- Sure, but he also gets a full offseason to prepare instead of a covid-plagued one
Stat Correction
Footballguy
I was assuming Mahomes would be first, with Herbert potentially pushing Kyler for #2.
DropKick
Footballguy
Sorry, misread that... key point is people will have lots of pessimism - regression, not sneaking up on teams, etc. Don't have to be valid but I see him in the 6-10 range.
Stat Correction
Footballguy
After the painfully obvious sophomore-season regression of Lamar, I can appreciate the pessimism.
That said, I pray that you are correct about Herbert going in the 6-10 range of QB's next season.
Dizzy
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
The chargers have been in the "they're close" range for a few years now. They need to stay healthy first.
Tau837
Footballguy
Fair points, though a coaching staff change may or may not be positive for his statistics.
Comments:
- Yes, Williams is under contract for next year on his 5th year option, meaning the team has to pay him ~$14M. As a Chargers fan, IMO he isn't worth it, and dedicating that to him on top of Allen's big contract invests too much cap space in the WR position. That said, I think the most likely outcome is Williams is back, and the team may very well try to sign him to a multi-year contract to lower that 2021 cap number.
- Disagree on Henry. He is currently in the top 6 in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving first downs among NFL TEs this season. He is #5 on the team in snaps, behind Herbert and 3 OL, and he is #2 in receptions and receiving first downs and #3 in receiving yards and receiving TDs. Among Chargers players with at least 10 targets on the season, only Jalen Guyton has a higher NFL passer rating when targeted... yes, Henry's is better than Allen, Williams, and everyone else. I assume they will re-sign Henry, which impacts the next point.
- They are in good 2021 cap shape relative to the rest of the league, but it's not going to go as far as it might seem, as I posted here. It could definitely help, but the most likely outcome is that any improvement around Herbert on offense will likely need to come through the draft... but, if they are not drafting high enough to take T Sewell, which seems likely at this point, they will probably go Edge and CB with their early picks. Agree that this is an unknown, though, so hard to predict definitively at this time.
- Agree that Ekeler's return will be a positive for sure.
- When your current coaches are bad, the odds of a coaching change being positive are pretty high. I can't fathom any new coach coming in and saying "I know that Herbert kid had one of the best rookie seasons ever, but I'm going to put the shackles on him this year".
- The point is Williams' $14M salary is already accounted for in their 2021 cap space, so any extension to lower that number can only be a positive.
- That includes week 1 with Tyrod, which was his 2nd best game of the year. In the 9 games with Herbert, Henry is averaging 4 catches for 40 yards and .33 TDs per game. That's replaceable if he doesn't re-sign, and if he does it will likely be at something similar to his current cap hit. Good player, but certainly not crushing if he leaves.
- That's the thing, cap space is all relative. When they have more money to spend than ~75% of their competition, that gives them an advantage in signing better/more players. Heck, ~1/3rd of the league is projected to have negative cap space right now, certainly seems like there's going to be a lot more cap casualties than normal this offseason. There's no reason to believe they won't spend that money or high draft picks on offense, that's completely TBD right now.
- IMO adding Ekeler is a bigger positive than (potentially) losing Henry. If they keep Henry or find someone similar it would be a huge net positive.
Faust
MVP
The Frankman
Footballguy
he mad
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Tau837
Footballguy
Coaching change can be good, neutral, or bad for a QB, from a statistical/fantasy perspective. I wouldn't expect a bad outcome, but it is within the realm of possibility.
Yes, pretty sure this is aligned with my post.
IMO you are pretty far off base if you think the Chargers have any intention of letting Henry walk. Of course, they could justifiably fire both HC Lynn and GM Telesco any time now, so we don't know how their replacements would view Henry. I'd be very surprised if he isnt' back.
Yes and no. They still have to pay their draft picks and PPE players, account for the practice squad, and reserve cap space for 2021 injury replacements. Then they have to account for how they fill the remaining positions on the roster, whether via internal or external free agents. Sure, hopefully the free agent market will be depressed, which could help them. IMO it depends a lot upon whether or not Telesco and/or Lynn are back, since their views obviously heavily influence free agent decisions.
I agree, today. But Ekeler and Henry obviously play different positions. Ekeler will ensure good quality RB play, as long as he is healthy. But the team also needs good quality TE play. If they let Henry go, who will provide that?
Henry is replaceable in my opinion. He had a couple of really bad drops out there today. His skills seem like they could be replaced quite easily. Zach Ertz for a year or 2 comes to mind.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Lynn is soooooooooo bad.
Not crazy about the matchup vs NE this week but at least they are at home I guess and Herbert probably compares favorably to anything available on waivers. Playoff schedule still looks great.
Remember, we're discussing expectations for regression or progression from this year, so we're trying to compare what next year will look like relative to this year. Pretty much any change can be good, neutral, or bad, you just seem to be focused more on the bad so I countered some of your points. That said, when something is currently bad, a change has more likelihood of having a positive impact than a negative one. Let's put it this way, there isn't much room to go down in terms of coaching, but plenty of room to go up (and could go up massively if they bring in some hotshot offensive mind). So of course we can't know what impact there will be (just like we can't with any of these changes), but the odds of a coaching change being either neutral or positive>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative in this case. Sure, negative is within the realm of possibility, but seems pretty unlikely considering the current low baseline.
Not sure why you really brought up Williams's cap number then since it's already accounted for. Any extension has an extremely high chance of lowering that number, so the odds of that being positive>>>>>>neutral>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative compared to the status quo.
Again, cap space is all relative, and everyone else has to do those things as well. The FA market is going to be dictated by how much teams have to spend, and the fact of the matter is they are in a better position than ~75% of the league. So, chance of that being positive>>>>>>>neutral>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative. If Telesco and/or Lynn are back, that would be neutral, and if they're gone, that's positive/neutral>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>negative as well because of the very low current baseline.
I never even hinted that I think the Chargers have any intention of letting Henry walk, just said that it wouldn't be crushing to Herbert's prospects if they did. Yes, they play different positions, but again, we're comparing next year to this year. They didn't have Ekeler for the vast majority of this season and likely will for next year so that is likely to be a big boost. Worst case scenario they lose Henry and replace him with a complete nobody, but even if that happens I think the addition of Ekeler would more than offset the loss of Henry. That's very unlikely to happen, most likely is both are back, which would be a huge plus. Next most likely is Ekeler is back and Henry is replaced with a decent TE, which would still be a positive (compared to so far this year without Ekeler). I like Henry, but think you are too high on him- he isn't elite. IMO they could get ~85% of his production out of several guys who will be available in the offseason for a lot cheaper, but like you said, he'll probably be back so it's moot.
Obviously this is all speculation at this point, I just think when you look at everything in context, his overall situation next year is much more likely to be neutral to positive than negative when compared to this year.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
What's the deal with the change to Chargers' offensive identity with return of Austin Ekeler? I noticed the galling tendency by Herbert on targeting Ekeler with short passes. Herbert does best when spreading the passes to every receiver especially Keenan Allen. For whatever reason, they went away in their last game vs. Bills.
I watched every minute of that game and was thinking the same. I’m thinking it’s just a one off and Herbert will retreat back to what he was. You never know with Lynn though.
johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
Play calling was awful in that game. Several up the gut runs with Ekeler on 4th and 2 and then that final drive was bizarre with the play calling, clock management with no timeouts.
Agreed. Except I think Flores already initiated him a few weeks ago. I'm sure he'll see a lot of the same confusing last second look changes. It will be good to see if Herbert can improve now that he has seen it.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Ekeler back to a 1st round value in dynasty? 
