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Dynasty & Redraft: QB Justin Herbert, Chargers


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11 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I noticed the same thing.  What's the point if not taking advantage of Herbert's cannon arm? 

The trend is not our friend right now. Three games in a row of middling results.

I know Herbert owners have been spoiled previously, but now it seems like somebody has stolen his ceiling. There's no more bombs away going on. And, he's not running either. Maybe this has to do with Ekeler's return. Maybe not.

Either way, I'm considering other options. I'd be shocked if he can't pull out a 250-2-1 against LV, but that D almost invites you to run the ball they are so horrible. Lynn will accept that invitation.

Game is Thursday night as well.

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2 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

The trend is not our friend right now. Three games in a row of middling results.

I know Herbert owners have been spoiled previously, but now it seems like somebody has stolen his ceiling. There's no more bombs away going on. And, he's not running either. Maybe this has to do with Ekeler's return. Maybe not.

Either way, I'm considering other options. I'd be shocked if he can't pull out a 250-2-1 against LV, but that D almost invites you to run the ball they are so horrible. Lynn will accept that invitation.

Game is Thursday night as well.

Their offensive line is a disaster right now. I don't know if you've noticed, but they can't handle a straight 4 man rush anymore. The pocket is collapsing milliseconds after the snap on almost every play. That's why they've gone more conservative with the play calling, there's not enough protection time to do much else, and they don't seem to want to approach max protect for whatever reason.

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On 12/14/2020 at 1:26 PM, Gr00vus said:

Their offensive line is a disaster right now. I don't know if you've noticed, but they can't handle a straight 4 man rush anymore. The pocket is collapsing milliseconds after the snap on almost every play. That's why they've gone more conservative with the play calling, there's not enough protection time to do much else, and they don't seem to want to approach max protect for whatever reason.

I guess LV has 4 defensive starters out. That's good.

On the flip side, LAC K. Allen and M. Williams are GTDs. That's bad. Although T. Johnson and Guyton can fill in decently I suppose.

I was able to pick up Hurts and somebody dumped T. Hill (as it looks like Brees will be out again). Thinking about both of those options now.

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2 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

I guess LV has 4 defensive starters out. That's good.

On the flip side, LAC K. Allen and M. Williams are GTDs. That's bad. Although T. Johnson and Guyton can fill in decently I suppose.

I was able to pick up Hurts and somebody dumped T. Hill (as it looks like Brees will be out again). Thinking about both of those options now.

i woke up to the news of allen and williams being game time decisions 
now considering carr over herbert 

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1 minute ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Yep.  I have Hurts in over Herbert for now.  Prolly overthinking it.

Picked up Hurts earlier this week, but more for next week's matchup against Dallas if I'm lucky enough to get there. Also have T. Hill.

Really going Hurts over Herbert?

I feel like Herbert has a solid floor at minimum this week. Say, 15 pts with something like 225-2-1, but I'm questioning the ceiling now minus K. Allen and M. Williams. 

Hurts could have a huge ceiling, but I worry about his floor. AZ will have film on him now and they have had decent defensive games. That said, their trouble with running QBs is well documented.

Right now, I'm toiling with Herbert vs. T. Hill, but have Hurts as a distant third option.

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5 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Picked up Hurts earlier this week, but more for next week's matchup against Dallas if I'm lucky enough to get there. Also have T. Hill.

Really going Hurts over Herbert?

I feel like Herbert has a solid floor at minimum this week. Say, 15 pts with something like 225-2-1, but I'm questioning the ceiling now minus K. Allen and M. Williams. 

Hurts could have a huge ceiling, but I worry about his floor. AZ will have film on him now and they have had decent defensive games. That said, their trouble with running QBs is well documented.

Right now, I'm toiling with Herbert vs. T. Hill, but have Hurts as a distant third option.

I'm not sure, GB.  In fairness if Keenan Allen is announced as active, I think I will pivot back to Herbert.  I mean Hurts went for 100+ on the ground against a really good D.. Idk.

 

 

 

 

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Some decent analysis from FantasyPros weekly primer. They share the concern for the O lineman being out and the tendency to check down since Ekeler has been back:

 

Justin Herbert: Since when did Herbert become a check-down artist? Sure, he completed 36-of-44 passes against the Falcons last week, but they went for just 5.5 yards per attempt. He averaged just 5.3 air yards per attempt, which was the fourth-lowest mark among quarterbacks last week. It may have had something to do with them trying to build his confidence back up after that horrific outing against the Patriots. It also could’ve had something to do with Mike Williams getting hurt on their first drive. We must keep everything in mind moving forward, but it seems like the return of Ekeler has toned down the downfield passing in this offense. The Raiders fired their defensive coordinator last week, which stems from the fact that they’ve allowed 30.1 points per game to their opponents, which is the third-highest total in the league. It’s odd that they did it during a shortened week where they only have four days to prepare for. The Chargers run a play every 28.4 seconds in a neutral gamescript, which ranks as the third-highest number, so when you see the Raiders allow the sixth-most fantasy points per offensive play, you have the recipe for success. You also add in a game with a 54.5-point total and it should pique your interest. The Raiders have faced 36.2 pass attempts per game (7th-most) while Herbert has now thrown at least 42 passes in seven of his last eight games, so the volume and floor should be intact. The downside is that Herbert hasn’t used his legs at all as of late. After rushing for 183 yards and three touchdowns in his first nine games, he’s actually scored negative points on the ground over the last three games. But given his volume through the air combined with the fact that the Raiders have allowed 9-of-13 quarterbacks throw for at least 7.73 yards per attempt should be enough to get him into the QB1 conversation, though he’s in the lower end of that territory with his lack of mobility and unwillingness to push the ball down the field lately. If there’s one thing that’s concerning, it’s that he is likely going to be without two starting offensive linemen, as both Bryan Bulaga (he’s OUT) and Trai Turner suffered head injuries.

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5 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Some decent analysis from FantasyPros weekly primer. They share the concern for the O lineman being out and the tendency to check down since Ekeler has been back:

 

Justin Herbert: Since when did Herbert become a check-down artist? Sure, he completed 36-of-44 passes against the Falcons last week, but they went for just 5.5 yards per attempt. He averaged just 5.3 air yards per attempt, which was the fourth-lowest mark among quarterbacks last week. It may have had something to do with them trying to build his confidence back up after that horrific outing against the Patriots. It also could’ve had something to do with Mike Williams getting hurt on their first drive. We must keep everything in mind moving forward, but it seems like the return of Ekeler has toned down the downfield passing in this offense. The Raiders fired their defensive coordinator last week, which stems from the fact that they’ve allowed 30.1 points per game to their opponents, which is the third-highest total in the league. It’s odd that they did it during a shortened week where they only have four days to prepare for. The Chargers run a play every 28.4 seconds in a neutral gamescript, which ranks as the third-highest number, so when you see the Raiders allow the sixth-most fantasy points per offensive play, you have the recipe for success. You also add in a game with a 54.5-point total and it should pique your interest. The Raiders have faced 36.2 pass attempts per game (7th-most) while Herbert has now thrown at least 42 passes in seven of his last eight games, so the volume and floor should be intact. The downside is that Herbert hasn’t used his legs at all as of late. After rushing for 183 yards and three touchdowns in his first nine games, he’s actually scored negative points on the ground over the last three games. But given his volume through the air combined with the fact that the Raiders have allowed 9-of-13 quarterbacks throw for at least 7.73 yards per attempt should be enough to get him into the QB1 conversation, though he’s in the lower end of that territory with his lack of mobility and unwillingness to push the ball down the field lately. If there’s one thing that’s concerning, it’s that he is likely going to be without two starting offensive linemen, as both Bryan Bulaga (he’s OUT) and Trai Turner suffered head injuries.

Thanks man.  Love The Primer.

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Mike W appears to be out, and Keenan sounds gimpy at best.  Yikes.  15 targets for Ekeler incoming.
 

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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Chargers are "concerned" it won't have Keenan Allen (hamstring) available for Week 15 against the Raiders.

Schefter adds that Allen is likely to be limited even if he is cleared to play. With Mike Williams (back) also expected to sit, both Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton will be thrust into Los Angeles' starting lineup outside of Hunter Henry. Johnson, who most recently recorded 6/55/1 off the bench for Williams in Sunday's win over the Falcons, suddenly becomes an intriguing WR2/3 play in season-long playoffs since the Raiders will be without 4-5 key starters on defense. Allen is a worrisome option who likely isn't worth risking in a must-win fantasy matchup.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

Mike W appears to be out, and Keenan sounds gimpy at best.  Yikes.  15 targets for Ekeler incoming.
 

 

Not good.

I wonder if with Allen and Williams out if the game plan gets even more conservative. Even Henry is gimpy. If Herbert passes turn into Ekeler / Ballage runs...ugh.

Keep flipping back to 4 defensive starters being out though. Guyton and even T. Johnson have filled in nicely.

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I think the o/u is still over 50 because the Raiders are rolling out a skeleton defensive, fired their def coord on a short week, Rob Marinelli (interim def coord) did not design this scheme and now he has to run it on a short week.

So, the expectation from Vegas is that there will be points as LAC also finds ways to lose.  A TNF matchup with no defensive maintains Herbert's outlook even if he loses Allen, who would help in the short passing attack.  Ty Johnson and Guyton would upgrade Herbert's downfield shots.

If you're a better, I don't see how Raiders are 3 point favorites with this defense.  This is a must win game for the Raiders in the playoff hunt + no defense + Herbert's arm = points.

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6 minutes ago, steelwind said:

I think the o/u is still over 50 because the Raiders are rolling out a skeleton defensive, fired their def coord on a short week, Rob Marinelli (interim def coord) did not design this scheme and now he has to run it on a short week.

So, the expectation from Vegas is that there will be points as LAC also finds ways to lose.  A TNF matchup with no defensive maintains Herbert's outlook even if he loses Allen, who would help in the short passing attack.  Ty Johnson and Guyton would upgrade Herbert's downfield shots.

If you're a better, I don't see how Raiders are 3 point favorites with this defense.  This is a must win game for the Raiders in the playoff hunt + no defense + Herbert's arm = points.

You obviously haven’t seen Lynn coach a game. I would be SHOCKED if the Raiders don’t win this game. 

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5 minutes ago, The Show said:

You obviously haven’t seen Lynn coach a game. I would be SHOCKED if the Raiders don’t win this game. 

Agree with you.  Just saying it can still go either way and with Vegas projecting Raiders to win by 3 they agree.  But for fantasy we don't care about who wins.

We only care that the Raiders will roll out a skeleton defensive with a backup def coordinator on a short week.  In fact, part of Herbert's recency bias is the fact that he hasn't been running.  I think he should have plenty of running opps tonight.  Did you know the Raiders put some defensive backs as linebackers last week vs Jonathan Taylor?  That's how decimated they are.

FYI who is Rob Marinelli?  He was the Dallas Cowboys def coordinator.  As a Dallas resident let me tell you he STOINKS.

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Facing Eckler so don’t know how I feel about that. He will get a ton of volume but also extra attention. Has to be the #1 focal point in stopping.
I picked up Johnson and with a decimated WR corp may start him. He looked really good last week and should get downfield shots against a bad defense. I’ve seen Allen when less than 100% and he becomes a decoy at best of not limping off in the first quarter. So be default it becomes Eckler and Henry short and Johnson likely downfield. All you need is to connect on 1......

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4 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

Facing Eckler so don’t know how I feel about that. He will get a ton of volume but also extra attention. Has to be the #1 focal point in stopping.
I picked up Johnson and with a decimated WR corp may start him. He looked really good last week and should get downfield shots against a bad defense. I’ve seen Allen when less than 100% and he becomes a decoy at best of not limping off in the first quarter. So be default it becomes Eckler and Henry short and Johnson likely downfield. All you need is to connect on 1......

I'm facing Ekeler as well (along with Henry). 

As I debate Herbert, I almost want to sit him just so I can root against all things LAC offense.

Irrational decision making process as usual at the most important time of the year.

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I'm really not sure what to do. I think if Allen plays at all, I'll keep Herbert in (other options are Hill and Baker - both feel shaky). I'm less worried about who Herbert is throwing to, more concerned about how he's been turned into a screen passer. This will be a huge Ekeler game. Raiders defense is appealing but you know there's nothing old school Anthony Lynn would rather do than run the ball down their throats all game.

Ultimately, the prospect of a high scoring game and Carr potentially being able to keep pace in a projected shootout has me leaning Herbert. The Brees stuff spooks me with Hill and I'm not a huge fan of the matchup. I trust Baker the most (weirdly), but the Giants have been really tough over the past month. 

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9 hours ago, steelwind said:

I think the o/u is still over 50 because the Raiders are rolling out a skeleton defensive, fired their def coord on a short week, Rob Marinelli (interim def coord) did not design this scheme and now he has to run it on a short week.

So, the expectation from Vegas is that there will be points as LAC also finds ways to lose.  A TNF matchup with no defensive maintains Herbert's outlook even if he loses Allen, who would help in the short passing attack.  Ty Johnson and Guyton would upgrade Herbert's downfield shots.

If you're a better, I don't see how Raiders are 3 point favorites with this defense.  This is a must win game for the Raiders in the playoff hunt + no defense + Herbert's arm = points.

As stated earlier, Oak D stoinks with Marinelli.  What's funny is Lynn's incompetency lead to Bagley's missed 51 yard FG and we got padded stats in OT.  Herbert delivers high end QB1 numbers for week 15.

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Justin Herbert completed 22-of-32 passes for 314 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Chargers' 30-27, Week 15 overtime win over the Raiders, adding four carries for 14 yards and an additional score. 

You had to watch this one to believe it. Herbert walked off the Raiders with a quarterback sneak with 1:32 remaining in overtime one play after losing a fumble. The Chargers recovered it in the end zone, but due to the "Holy Roller" rule (Google it), it was not a score. Herbert's late heroics came after an incomprehensible fourth quarter where he attempted — this is not a joke — one pass as Michael Badgley missed his eighth and ninth field goal attempts of the year. Before that, Herbert relentlessly worked connections with Hunter Henry and Jalen Guyton as Keenan Allen could barely move thanks to his hamstring injury. It was a needed showing out basically without his best receiver on the heels of his recent slump. Cruising toward ending 2020 with the rookie touchdown record — he has already tied Baker Mayfield at 27 — Herbert catches the Broncos in Week 16. 

Dec 17, 2020, 11:42 PM ET

 

 

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9 hours ago, steelwind said:

As stated earlier, Oak D stoinks with Marinelli.  What's funny is Lynn's incompetency lead to Bagley's missed 51 yard FG and we got padded stats in OT.  Herbert delivers high end QB1 numbers for week 15.

His stats weren't really padded, they were just shifted from what should have been the 4th qtr. due to said incompetence.

Kid's legit.

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Good to see him throwing down the field again last night. Thought for sure it was going to be dump off city.

TD plunge late was icing on the cake. Good start to the semis.

And wow did I dodge a bullet. Was on one foot or the other possibly benching him for T. Hill. I'd be on suicide watch this morning after seeing Herbert put up 27 and then Brees announced the starter a few minutes ago.

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

Good to see him throwing down the field again last night. Thought for sure it was going to be dump off city.

TD plunge late was icing on the cake. Good start to the semis.

And wow did I dodge a bullet. Was on one foot or the other possibly benching him for T. Hill. I'd be on suicide watch this morning after seeing Herbert put up 27 and then Brees announced the starter a few minutes ago.

That is exactly what happened to me. Wanted a piece of a running qb in a potential shootout at home and not on a thursday.

Not feeling good today, but was at least able to pick up Brees. Could cost me everything...

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This makes Herbert look even more impressive.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#pbwrteam

Team Pass Block Win Rate

1. Green Bay Packers, 74%
2. Cleveland Browns, 71%
3. Arizona Cardinals, 68%
4. Buffalo Bills, 64%
5. Kansas City Chiefs, 63%
6. New Orleans Saints, 63%
7. Seattle Seahawks, 62%
8. Los Angeles Rams, 62%
9. Indianapolis Colts, 61%
10. Baltimore Ravens, 61%
11. New England Patriots, 60%
12. Philadelphia Eagles, 59%
13. Atlanta Falcons, 58%
14. Las Vegas Raiders, 58%
15. Washington Football Team, 58%
16. Minnesota Vikings, 57%
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 57%
18. Houston Texans, 56%
19. Chicago Bears, 56%
20. Detroit Lions, 54%
21. San Francisco 49ers, 54%
22. Carolina Panthers, 54%
23. Tennessee Titans, 54%
24. Denver Broncos, 54%
25. Dallas Cowboys, 52%
26. Jacksonville Jaguars, 52%
27. Miami Dolphins, 50%
28. Cincinnati Bengals, 50%
29. Pittsburgh Steelers, 49%
30. New York Jets, 49%
31. New York Giants, 46%
32. Los Angeles Chargers, 45%

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On 12/14/2020 at 10:26 AM, Gr00vus said:

Their offensive line is a disaster right now. I don't know if you've noticed, but they can't handle a straight 4 man rush anymore. The pocket is collapsing milliseconds after the snap on almost every play. That's why they've gone more conservative with the play calling, there's not enough protection time to do much else, and they don't seem to want to approach max protect for whatever reason.

 

5 hours ago, themeistersinger said:

This makes Herbert look even more impressive.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#pbwrteam

Team Pass Block Win Rate

1. Green Bay Packers, 74%
2. Cleveland Browns, 71%
3. Arizona Cardinals, 68%
4. Buffalo Bills, 64%
5. Kansas City Chiefs, 63%
6. New Orleans Saints, 63%
7. Seattle Seahawks, 62%
8. Los Angeles Rams, 62%
9. Indianapolis Colts, 61%
10. Baltimore Ravens, 61%
11. New England Patriots, 60%
12. Philadelphia Eagles, 59%
13. Atlanta Falcons, 58%
14. Las Vegas Raiders, 58%
15. Washington Football Team, 58%
16. Minnesota Vikings, 57%
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 57%
18. Houston Texans, 56%
19. Chicago Bears, 56%
20. Detroit Lions, 54%
21. San Francisco 49ers, 54%
22. Carolina Panthers, 54%
23. Tennessee Titans, 54%
24. Denver Broncos, 54%
25. Dallas Cowboys, 52%
26. Jacksonville Jaguars, 52%
27. Miami Dolphins, 50%
28. Cincinnati Bengals, 50%
29. Pittsburgh Steelers, 49%
30. New York Jets, 49%
31. New York Giants, 46%
32. Los Angeles Chargers, 45%

:yes:

:cry:

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Basically his value in the short-term hinges on whether they have the sense to fire Lynn. I'm not sure what the sentiment is around the team, but you can't trust NFL teams to do logical things. If Lynn leaves and they get a real coach in there who isn't beholden to an old-school run game, then Herbert can be a top 3-5 dynasty QB with upside.

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I dont care the fact that Chargers are winning three consecutive games.  And on whether is it saving HC Anthony Lynn from the firing squad.  I still think Chargers completely overhaul their coaching staff especially the one who is competent to handle all three phases (offense, defense, AND special teams) AND situational football as well.  Also, Chargers def need to overhaul their medical and training staff to preserve their players' health.  We simply cannot afford to lose Herbert. 

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11 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I dont care the fact that Chargers are winning three consecutive games.  And on whether is it saving HC Anthony Lynn from the firing squad.  I still think Chargers completely overhaul their coaching staff especially the one who is competent to handle all three phases (offense, defense, AND special teams) AND situational football as well.  Also, Chargers def need to overhaul their medical and training staff to preserve their players' health.  We simply cannot afford to lose Herbert. 

Lynn has to go and go fast. He is holding Herbert back badly. They won the last 2 weeks despite Lynn not because of him. 

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11 hours ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I dont care the fact that Chargers are winning three consecutive games.  And on whether is it saving HC Anthony Lynn from the firing squad.  I still think Chargers completely overhaul their coaching staff especially the one who is competent to handle all three phases (offense, defense, AND special teams) AND situational football as well.  Also, Chargers def need to overhaul their medical and training staff to preserve their players' health.  We simply cannot afford to lose Herbert. 

Agree.

Lynn almost blew it again yesterday calling a pass play on third down when Herbert got sacked. Unbelievable. Just run the ball, kill some clock, and kick it.

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I hate to break it to you guys, but I think Lynn will return. I think that is the wrong decision, but that is what I expect.

But I'm not sure it is necessarily bad for Herbert. This coaching staff got him to 4034/28/10 passing and 225/4 rushing in 14 games as a rookie with a COVID-impacted offseason/preseason/regular season. He is QB9 and QB10 in both total points and ppg in my two dynasty leagues. That is pretty impressive given the circumstances. The Athletic beat writer for the Chargers cites Herbert's impressive rookie performance as one of the reasons he expects Lynn to be back.

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On 12/28/2020 at 10:49 AM, Just Win Baby said:

I hate to break it to you guys, but I think Lynn will return. I think that is the wrong decision, but that is what I expect.

But I'm not sure it is necessarily bad for Herbert. This coaching staff got him to 4034/28/10 passing and 225/4 rushing in 14 games as a rookie with a COVID-impacted offseason/preseason/regular season. He is QB9 and QB10 in both total points and ppg in my two dynasty leagues. That is pretty impressive given the circumstances. The Athletic beat writer for the Chargers cites Herbert's impressive rookie performance as one of the reasons he expects Lynn to be back.

I really hope this is a joke. I watched every minute of every Charger game this year and Lynn is a complete embarrassment of a head coach. The brain dead mistakes he makes are inexcusable.

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On 12/28/2020 at 11:49 AM, Just Win Baby said:

I hate to break it to you guys, but I think Lynn will return. I think that is the wrong decision, but that is what I expect.

But I'm not sure it is necessarily bad for Herbert. This coaching staff got him to 4034/28/10 passing and 225/4 rushing in 14 games as a rookie with a COVID-impacted offseason/preseason/regular season. He is QB9 and QB10 in both total points and ppg in my two dynasty leagues. That is pretty impressive given the circumstances. The Athletic beat writer for the Chargers cites Herbert's impressive rookie performance as one of the reasons he expects Lynn to be back.

Been hearing this a lot lately. Wouldn't be the end of the world for Herbert owners since he's been good enough even with Lynn being awful, but would much prefer a change.

Back to back extremely disappointing seasons for the Chargers would certainly seem to point to making a change, but they did just extend him so I could see them (mistakenly) bringing him back.

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10 hours ago, The Show said:

I really hope this is a joke. I watched every minute of every Charger game this year and Lynn is a complete embarrassment of a head coach. The brain dead mistakes he makes are inexcusable.

I wish it was a joke. It's not. The Chargers beat reporter for the Athletic has been writing for a couple weeks now that he expects Lynn and Telesco back.

2 hours ago, Ronnie Mack said:

Start at the top- Mark my word, in off season Dean Spanos (wants out) will sell the team that Alex handed to him

No he won't. Unlike many NFL franchise owners, the Chargers are the family business for the Spanos family. There are several family members in prominent positions throughout the organization. 

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