Los Angeles is coming off their bye week. Even if the offensive struggles got most of the headlines in a Week 6 blowout, one has to imagine Brandon Staley spent plenty of time during the week away tinkering with ideas for plugging this gaping defensive hole. The thesis of Staley’s defense centers around the idea of limiting big passing plays and baiting teams into taking short gains; both through the air and on the ground.
If that means ceding some yards on the ground, that’s fine under this style of defense. But you can’t be this bad.
You can’t be the stone worst run defense in the NFL.
The problem is the Chargers aren’t fully staffed out on the d-line to run this system quite yet and injuries have set in. Losing linebacker Kenneth Murray has proven to be a big problem. If you’re going to bait teams into the running and short-passing games, you need to bring down players in the open field on first contact. The Chargers rank sixth in the NFL in missed tackles ... despite already having their bye.
This Achilles heel for the Chargers defense has the potential to cripple the offense, as well. We saw it against Baltimore.
The Ravens dominated the time of possession battle, 38:07 to 21:53. Even with their stable of elder backs, they were able to sit on the ball and run all over the Chargers. That led to the usually efficient Justin Herbert-led offense playing behind the eight-ball. Usually, Herbert and co. are masters of the later downs (he ranks third in EPA per play on third and fourth downs) but that’s a tough way to live.
The Chargers converted three of 12 third downs and just one of four fourth-down attempts against the Ravens.
Look, no one is panicking about the Chargers offensive players in fantasy and they’re quite likely still one of the best teams in the AFC. However, we’d prefer this team playing in a positive or neutral game script because it’s clear their weakness in run defense is so bad it can curtail the entire operation. One lost possession due to a third or fourth down failure can lead to long stretches of game-time without the ball if the other team is just establishing the run.
Of course, all the Chargers' problems will disappear if Justin Herbert plays like a man possessed. The bleeding run defense creates a pretty thin margin for error. But Herbert is the kind of quarterback who obliterates all typical margins. It’s still an interesting test-case week for him against one of the few teams who foiled him as a rookie. A far inferior Patriots team to this one cracked the Chargers, 45-0, and delivered Herbert his worst game as a pro by a mile with a 7.0 QBR.
We should keep a close eye on how this game starts. If we see Herbert and co. whiff on a couple late-down attempts in the first few drives and Damien Harris is running all over a defense Staley was unable to shore up during the bye, we could be headed for a sticky situation as the day goes on.
