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QB Justin Herbert, LAC


Faust

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9 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Are you able to look at historic SOS and see how predictive PFF’s preseason rankings were?

I have argued for years that preseason SOS is less than worthless and it takes at least 4-6 weeks into the season for them to be predictive. 

This.

I remind myself every summer we don’t actually know who’s good and who’s bad yet. Individuals are easier but O-line is mostly about health and building cohesion. Defenses and passing attacks are up/down. Things change fast in this league and personnel shifts, coaching changes, et al, take awhile to shake out.

Last year was such an aberration statistically. 1400 TDs, an all-time record (by over 100,) Record low - by a good margin - offensive penalties, meaning more sustained drives. No crowds. All that makes for a more challenging evaluation this year.

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

I remind myself every summer we don’t actually know who’s good and who’s bad yet.

I always ignore SOS analyses - if anyone thinks they know who will be a favorable/unfavorable opponent, he/she is kidding him/herself.

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8 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

This.

I remind myself every summer we don’t actually know who’s good and who’s bad yet. Individuals are easier but O-line is mostly about health and building cohesion. Defenses and passing attacks are up/down. Things change fast in this league and personnel shifts, coaching changes, et al, take awhile to shake out.

Last year was such an aberration statistically. 1400 TDs, an all-time record (by over 100,) Record low - by a good margin - offensive penalties, meaning more sustained drives. No crowds. All that makes for a more challenging evaluation this year.

Great points. I think SOS analysis often gets a bad rep because it's frequently lazy - solely looking at last year's data, not factoring in off-season changes and often not even differentiating between pass and run. However, I do think some SOS work can be helpful.  As a starting point, I generally look at the extremes - games against defenses we can confidently say will be horrible (Houston, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Detroit) and defenses we can confidently say will be very tough (LAR, Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay).

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  • 1 month later...
  • Faust changed the title to QB Justin Herbert, Chargers
Quote

Justin Herbert completed 31-of-47 passes for 337 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' 20-16 Week 1 win against Washington. 

Herbert sliced and diced the vaunted Washington defense with ease throughout. The second-year quarterback was clutch on third downs, completing 13 of 16 passes for 160 yards and converting 11 first downs. He continually threw receivers open and faced little pressure from the Football Team's front seven. Herbert's day would have been far better if not for a controversial fumble near the end zone and an end zone drop by Mike Williams. Herbert picked up where he left off in his historic rookie campaign. He'll be a locked-in top-5 QB next week against the Cowboys.

 

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  • Faust changed the title to QB Justin Herbert, LAC
57 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:
1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

2 TD passes taken off the board today

  • 42 yarder to Donald Parham (holding)
  • 2 yards to Cook (illegal shift)

Also a phantom forward progress to move them out of reasonable scoring distance.

 

Phantom calls didn't cause Herbert to throw 3 interceptions in the first 2 games, on pace for 25+. He has been great in some ways, but surprisingly careless on rare occasions.

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Justin Herbert completed 31-of-41 passes for 338 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the Chargers 20-17, Week 2 loss to the Cowboys.

Herbert posted a solid fantasy outing but his day could have been monstrous were it not for a few mistakes. He had two touchdowns called back by penalties and one of his interceptions came in end zone. The Chargers also had a pair of drives end in red zone field goals. A lot of things broke against Herbert and he still topped 300 yards and found paydirt once. For an off day, that's pretty good. Los Angeles has dialed up 88 pass attempts for him through two games and he's been willing to go deep frequently. All of this points to gaudy yardage totals and plenty of touchdown potential in the future. Look for a bounceback performance from the second-year passer in his Week 3 outing versus the Chiefs. 

Sep 19, 2021, 9:10 PM ET

 

 

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