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QB Justin Herbert, LAC


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9 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Are you able to look at historic SOS and see how predictive PFF’s preseason rankings were?

I have argued for years that preseason SOS is less than worthless and it takes at least 4-6 weeks into the season for them to be predictive. 

This.

I remind myself every summer we don’t actually know who’s good and who’s bad yet. Individuals are easier but O-line is mostly about health and building cohesion. Defenses and passing attacks are up/down. Things change fast in this league and personnel shifts, coaching changes, et al, take awhile to shake out.

Last year was such an aberration statistically. 1400 TDs, an all-time record (by over 100,) Record low - by a good margin - offensive penalties, meaning more sustained drives. No crowds. All that makes for a more challenging evaluation this year.

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

I remind myself every summer we don’t actually know who’s good and who’s bad yet.

I always ignore SOS analyses - if anyone thinks they know who will be a favorable/unfavorable opponent, he/she is kidding him/herself.

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8 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

This.

I remind myself every summer we don’t actually know who’s good and who’s bad yet. Individuals are easier but O-line is mostly about health and building cohesion. Defenses and passing attacks are up/down. Things change fast in this league and personnel shifts, coaching changes, et al, take awhile to shake out.

Last year was such an aberration statistically. 1400 TDs, an all-time record (by over 100,) Record low - by a good margin - offensive penalties, meaning more sustained drives. No crowds. All that makes for a more challenging evaluation this year.

Great points. I think SOS analysis often gets a bad rep because it's frequently lazy - solely looking at last year's data, not factoring in off-season changes and often not even differentiating between pass and run. However, I do think some SOS work can be helpful.  As a starting point, I generally look at the extremes - games against defenses we can confidently say will be horrible (Houston, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Detroit) and defenses we can confidently say will be very tough (LAR, Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay).

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  • Faust changed the title to QB Justin Herbert, Chargers
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Justin Herbert completed 31-of-47 passes for 337 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' 20-16 Week 1 win against Washington. 

Herbert sliced and diced the vaunted Washington defense with ease throughout. The second-year quarterback was clutch on third downs, completing 13 of 16 passes for 160 yards and converting 11 first downs. He continually threw receivers open and faced little pressure from the Football Team's front seven. Herbert's day would have been far better if not for a controversial fumble near the end zone and an end zone drop by Mike Williams. Herbert picked up where he left off in his historic rookie campaign. He'll be a locked-in top-5 QB next week against the Cowboys.

 

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  • Faust changed the title to QB Justin Herbert, LAC
57 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:
1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

2 TD passes taken off the board today

  • 42 yarder to Donald Parham (holding)
  • 2 yards to Cook (illegal shift)

Also a phantom forward progress to move them out of reasonable scoring distance.

 

Phantom calls didn't cause Herbert to throw 3 interceptions in the first 2 games, on pace for 25+. He has been great in some ways, but surprisingly careless on rare occasions.

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Justin Herbert completed 31-of-41 passes for 338 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the Chargers 20-17, Week 2 loss to the Cowboys.

Herbert posted a solid fantasy outing but his day could have been monstrous were it not for a few mistakes. He had two touchdowns called back by penalties and one of his interceptions came in end zone. The Chargers also had a pair of drives end in red zone field goals. A lot of things broke against Herbert and he still topped 300 yards and found paydirt once. For an off day, that's pretty good. Los Angeles has dialed up 88 pass attempts for him through two games and he's been willing to go deep frequently. All of this points to gaudy yardage totals and plenty of touchdown potential in the future. Look for a bounceback performance from the second-year passer in his Week 3 outing versus the Chiefs. 

Sep 19, 2021, 9:10 PM ET

 

 

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Justin Herbert completed 26-of-38 passes for 281 yards and four touchdowns in the Chargers' 30-24, Week 3 win over the Chiefs, adding four carries for 16 additional yards. 

Herbert's 38 attempts were actually a season low, but he finally regressed to the touchdown mean with his four scores. His TD strikes went for four, 16, 20 and four yards, with the latter two going to a white-hot Mike Williams. The first four-yarder was an improvisational jump pass to Keenan Allen. Herbert continued to show ridiculous ball placement and appear like he is taking a step forward on his truly elite rookie campaign. There was a scary moment where Herbert jammed his throwing hand, but he literally shook it off and did not miss a play. The Raiders are a mouthwatering Week 4 matchup. 

 

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Justin Herbert completed 25-of-38 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns in the Chargers' 28-14, Week 4 win over the Raiders Monday night.

Herbert did virtually all of his damage in the first half, going 20-of-25 for 175 yards and the three touchdowns before the break. Herbert's touchdowns all came in the red zone with four-, 10-, and 14-yard hookups to Donald Parham, Jared Cook, and Austin Ekeler. One throw Herbert would've liked to have back was a would-be 82-yard touchdown to Mike Williams that Herbert badly overthrew when CB Damon Arnette was absolutely roasted off the line. With the Chargers up just 21-14 in the fourth quarter, Herbert completed a 4th-and-2 throw to Jared Cook to keep the drive going and get Ekeler into the end zone again later to give the Chargers a lead they wouldn't relinquish after the momentum was tilting in the Raiders' favor. Herbert has a perfect 7:0 TD:INT mark in wins over the Chiefs and Raiders the last two weeks. The 3-1 Chargers host the Browns in Week 5.

Oct 4, 2021, 11:51 PM ET

 

 

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Justin Herbert completed 23-of-39 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and an interception in the Chargers' 34-6, Week 6 loss to the Ravens. 

Herbert crashed back down to earth after last Sunday's scintillating affair, posing a season low for yardage even as the Chargers spent the entire afternoon playing from behind. The story of the day was the Chargers' reversal of fortune on fourth down, where they went 1-for-4. They turned it over on downs from their own 39 and 19-yard line, with the latter failure coming in the third quarter and essentially ending the game. They were already losing 24-6, so it was a sensible gambit. It just didn't work. Herbert has had some accuracy issues creep in of late, but nothing of a systematic variety. Just tough games in a tough league. Mike Williams' knee issue surely did not help this afternoon. Still looking like an MVP contender on the whole, Herbert gets the Chargers' bye before a tough Week 8 date with a Patriots defense that eradicated the Bolts in a 45-0 2020 victory. That game, of course, was with Anthony Lynn instead of Brandon Staley on the sideline.

- NBC SportsEDGE

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Week 8 Fantasy Football Stats: Chargers' run D holding Justin Herbert back?

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Los Angeles is coming off their bye week. Even if the offensive struggles got most of the headlines in a Week 6 blowout, one has to imagine Brandon Staley spent plenty of time during the week away tinkering with ideas for plugging this gaping defensive hole. The thesis of Staley’s defense centers around the idea of limiting big passing plays and baiting teams into taking short gains; both through the air and on the ground.

If that means ceding some yards on the ground, that’s fine under this style of defense. But you can’t be this bad.

You can’t be the stone worst run defense in the NFL.

The problem is the Chargers aren’t fully staffed out on the d-line to run this system quite yet and injuries have set in. Losing linebacker Kenneth Murray has proven to be a big problem. If you’re going to bait teams into the running and short-passing games, you need to bring down players in the open field on first contact. The Chargers rank sixth in the NFL in missed tackles ... despite already having their bye.

This Achilles heel for the Chargers defense has the potential to cripple the offense, as well. We saw it against Baltimore.

The Ravens dominated the time of possession battle, 38:07 to 21:53. Even with their stable of elder backs, they were able to sit on the ball and run all over the Chargers. That led to the usually efficient Justin Herbert-led offense playing behind the eight-ball. Usually, Herbert and co. are masters of the later downs (he ranks third in EPA per play on third and fourth downs) but that’s a tough way to live.

The Chargers converted three of 12 third downs and just one of four fourth-down attempts against the Ravens.

Look, no one is panicking about the Chargers offensive players in fantasy and they’re quite likely still one of the best teams in the AFC. However, we’d prefer this team playing in a positive or neutral game script because it’s clear their weakness in run defense is so bad it can curtail the entire operation. One lost possession due to a third or fourth down failure can lead to long stretches of game-time without the ball if the other team is just establishing the run.

Of course, all the Chargers' problems will disappear if Justin Herbert plays like a man possessed. The bleeding run defense creates a pretty thin margin for error. But Herbert is the kind of quarterback who obliterates all typical margins. It’s still an interesting test-case week for him against one of the few teams who foiled him as a rookie. A far inferior Patriots team to this one cracked the Chargers, 45-0, and delivered Herbert his worst game as a pro by a mile with a 7.0 QBR.

We should keep a close eye on how this game starts. If we see Herbert and co. whiff on a couple late-down attempts in the first few drives and Damien Harris is running all over a defense Staley was unable to shore up during the bye, we could be headed for a sticky situation as the day goes on.

 

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1 hour ago, Houston turmOiler said:

So apparently, if Mike Williams can't get open, this guy can't do anything. He's been awful today. He was awful against Baltimore. He's been good in 3 games. He's been a disappointment in the the other 4, a below-average fantasy QB. Certainly not an every week starter.

 

Not sure if anyone has greater peaks and valleys.

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1 hour ago, Houston turmOiler said:

So apparently, if Mike Williams can't get open, this guy can't do anything. He's been awful today. He was awful against Baltimore. He's been good in 3 games. He's been a disappointment in the the other 4, a below-average fantasy QB. Certainly not an every week starter.

He’s gotta let Williams win some contested balls 

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On 10/31/2021 at 7:05 PM, Houston turmOiler said:

So apparently, if Mike Williams can't get open, this guy can't do anything. He's been awful today. He was awful against Baltimore. He's been good in 3 games. He's been a disappointment in the the other 4, a below-average fantasy QB. Certainly not an every week starter.

You were saying?

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47 minutes ago, humpback said:

You were saying?

So this was a good week. It doesn't change the fact that he's still been very up-and-down for fantasy. But it was encouraging to see him have success with Williams only catching 2 passes. He made very good use of his 3 TEs as a group. Allen was constant. Let's hope there are a lot more of these performances going forward than ones like the previous 2 games.

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Justin Herbert completed 32-of-38 passes for 356 yards and two touchdowns, scrambling five times for 14 yards and a rushing score in Los Angeles' 27-24 Week 9 win over the Eagles.

Herbert completed a career-high 84% of his passes against Philly, simultaneously registering his 12th career 300-yard game, two more than any other quarterback through two seasons in NFL history — Patrick Mahomes and Dan Marino each had 10. It was a show for the ages following the team's letdown against the Patriots as Herbert completed 9-of-10 throws for 137 yards and two scores from play-action and 17-of-18 when getting the ball out of his hands within 2.5 seconds from snap to throw, finding Mike Williams for a 49-yard gain and using his legs to cap off a fourth-quarter drive to put the Chargers up 24-17 in the final 15 minutes. The Chargers converted two fourth-and-1 situations on their game-winning drive to eventually put this one to bed. Managers should again consider Herbert a middle-of-the-road QB1 in a tasty matchup in Week 10 against the Vikings.

- NBC SportsEDGE

 

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9 hours ago, Houston turmOiler said:

So this was a good week. It doesn't change the fact that he's still been very up-and-down for fantasy. But it was encouraging to see him have success with Williams only catching 2 passes. He made very good use of his 3 TEs as a group. Allen was constant. Let's hope there are a lot more of these performances going forward than ones like the previous 2 games.

Pretty much your entire premise is wrong IMO. He's done well when Mike Williams hasn't (and vice versa), so that is off base, and he's top 5 in ppg this year which is far from a "below average starter"

Mahomes, Allen, Brady, Dak, Rodgers, Lamar, Murray- all of them have at least one stinker, most have had multiple. Are they "certainly not every week starters" too?

Bottom line, no one is immune to a dud here and there, but Herbert is one of the best young QBs in the game today (both in real and FF terms).

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3 hours ago, humpback said:

Pretty much your entire premise is wrong IMO. He's done well when Mike Williams hasn't (and vice versa), so that is off base, and he's top 5 in ppg this year which is far from a "below average starter"

Mahomes, Allen, Brady, Dak, Rodgers, Lamar, Murray- all of them have at least one stinker, most have had multiple. Are they "certainly not every week starters" too?

Bottom line, no one is immune to a dud here and there, but Herbert is one of the best young QBs in the game today (both in real and FF terms).

Well that statement was also before yesterday, and I acknowledged that it was nice to see him have success using his TEs in particular without Williams having a big game. It showed an adjustment for which I was hoping. Why wait a week later to chime in? Nobody argued then.. Previously his 2 games over 30 pts. in my league Williams went 7-122-2 and 8-165-2. Yesterday that changed. 

Herbert has had 4 pretty underwhelming games from a fantasy standpoint. It's not just one. Before yesterday, his fantasy numbers were subpar in more games. Now he has 4 good. These numbers are my league, where you really need your QB to be over 20 and hopefully at least mid-20s.

Weeks 1, 2, 6, and 8. 

WAS 16.38

DAL 17.72

BAL 13.00

NE 17.82

If it was one or two duds I would understand. But it was 4 out of 7 and that was kind of alarming. I'm just hoping for more consistency and less valleys like these. In fantasy, he's my QB and I love watching him get hot. I just didn't think he'd be lousy in over half his games when I made the statement.

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1 hour ago, Houston turmOiler said:

Well that statement was also before yesterday, and I acknowledged that it was nice to see him have success using his TEs in particular without Williams having a big game. It showed an adjustment for which I was hoping. Why wait a week later to chime in? Nobody argued then.. Previously his 2 games over 30 pts. in my league Williams went 7-122-2 and 8-165-2. Yesterday that changed. 

Herbert has had 4 pretty underwhelming games from a fantasy standpoint. It's not just one. Before yesterday, his fantasy numbers were subpar in more games. Now he has 4 good. These numbers are my league, where you really need your QB to be over 20 and hopefully at least mid-20s.

Weeks 1, 2, 6, and 8. 

WAS 16.38

DAL 17.72

BAL 13.00

NE 17.82

If it was one or two duds I would understand. But it was 4 out of 7 and that was kind of alarming. I'm just hoping for more consistency and less valleys like these. In fantasy, he's my QB and I love watching him get hot. I just didn't think he'd be lousy in over half his games when I made the statement.

Your "hot take" was so bad it wasn't worth a response. I only posted now because I thought it was pretty funny how Herbert just destroyed every one of your talking points in his very next game. Most were obviously false even before this game.

Again, if you look at the other top QBs, they've all had game(s) in that range or lower, heck most of them did yesterday- Herbert crushed every one of the top 5 ranked QBs this week. Variance happens, but when you're counting ~18 point games as "duds" or "lousy", you're really stretching to try and push a narrative.

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13 minutes ago, humpback said:

Your "hot take" was so bad it wasn't worth a response. I only posted now because I thought it was pretty funny how Herbert just destroyed every one of your talking points in his very next game. Most were obviously false even before this game.

Again, if you look at the other top QBs, they've all had game(s) in that range or lower, heck most of them did yesterday- Herbert crushed every one of the top 5 ranked QBs this week. Variance happens, but when you're counting ~18 point games as "duds" or "lousy", you're really stretching to try and push a narrative.

Not trying to push any narrative. No need to be rude. He sucked and wasn't delivering what fantasy managers were hoping in over half his games, up to that point. There was no stretching. Yesterday he was good again. Hope it continues. He's my QB, and I'm sure I wasn't the only one disappointed in those results from those weeks. Simple as that.

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50 minutes ago, Houston turmOiler said:

Not trying to push any narrative. No need to be rude. He sucked and wasn't delivering what fantasy managers were hoping in over half his games, up to that point. There was no stretching. Yesterday he was good again. Hope it continues. He's my QB, and I'm sure I wasn't the only one disappointed in those results from those weeks. Simple as that.

He didn't suck in over half his games which destroys your point.  Horrible take by you.

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On 11/7/2021 at 7:16 PM, humpback said:

You were saying?

And another week tells another story. Which sucks for me, because he's my starting QB. I really like him as a player, and the sky is the limit for him. But right now week-to-week is maddening for fantasy. I don't think it's because he's a bad QB at all. When he's hot and things are rolling he's as good as anyone. I just don't know why his variance is so extreme, or so often (as far as scoring fantasy points). 

One thing that appealed to me in our redraft league was looking at his consistency last season. Last year (excluding Week 1 when Taylor started), he only had 4 games scoring less than 20 points in our league. His big games this year are pretty awesome. KC, CLE, and PHI were great at well over 30 points. He was pretty strong against the Raiders too at 27.28 pts.

Unfortunately this season he's already had 5 games out of 9 below 20 points. It's much harder to win fantasy games in our league with QB performances like that in our league. I think he's a much better QB than that. That kind of variance this often is kind of disappointing. I know everyone has down games. He's probably not even playing badly if you watch the coach's tape back. He looks like a top 5 QB when watching, but it's just not happening often enough right now in regard to fantasy points... 

 

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14 minutes ago, Houston turmOiler said:

And another week tells another story. Which sucks for me, because he's my starting QB. I really like him as a player, and the sky is the limit for him. But right now week-to-week is maddening for fantasy. I don't think it's because he's a bad QB at all. When he's hot and things are rolling he's as good as anyone. I just don't know why his variance is so extreme, or so often (as far as scoring fantasy points). 

One thing that appealed to me in our redraft league was looking at his consistency last season. Last year (excluding Week 1 when Taylor started), he only had 4 games scoring less than 20 points in our league. His big games this year are pretty awesome. KC, CLE, and PHI were great at well over 30 points. He was pretty strong against the Raiders too at 27.28 pts.

Unfortunately this season he's already had 5 games out of 9 below 20 points. It's much harder to win fantasy games in our league with QB performances like that in our league. I think he's a much better QB than that. That kind of variance this often is kind of disappointing. I know everyone has down games. He's probably not even playing badly if you watch the coach's tape back. He looks like a top 5 QB when watching, but it's just not happening often enough right now in regard to fantasy points... 

 

This year he has had a lot of bad luck with receivers going down inside the 5 and then they run it in.  This Herbert owner is not concerned at all.

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1 hour ago, Houston turmOiler said:

And another week tells another story. Which sucks for me, because he's my starting QB. I really like him as a player, and the sky is the limit for him. But right now week-to-week is maddening for fantasy. I don't think it's because he's a bad QB at all. When he's hot and things are rolling he's as good as anyone. I just don't know why his variance is so extreme, or so often (as far as scoring fantasy points). 

One thing that appealed to me in our redraft league was looking at his consistency last season. Last year (excluding Week 1 when Taylor started), he only had 4 games scoring less than 20 points in our league. His big games this year are pretty awesome. KC, CLE, and PHI were great at well over 30 points. He was pretty strong against the Raiders too at 27.28 pts.

Unfortunately this season he's already had 5 games out of 9 below 20 points. It's much harder to win fantasy games in our league with QB performances like that in our league. I think he's a much better QB than that. That kind of variance this often is kind of disappointing. I know everyone has down games. He's probably not even playing badly if you watch the coach's tape back. He looks like a top 5 QB when watching, but it's just not happening often enough right now in regard to fantasy points... 

 

FFS. How did Wilson, Brady, Lamar, Wentz and Rodgers do this week?

This is a silly. Variance happens, there are several reasons for it but not worth getting into it with you- if you're unhappy with his ups and downs then trade him for someone you think will have less of them. Then at least you can stop making silly statements and complaining about one of the best young QBs in the game.

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27 minutes ago, humpback said:

FFS. How did Wilson, Brady, Lamar, Wentz and Rodgers do this week?

This is a silly. Variance happens, there are several reasons for it but not worth getting into it with you- if you're unhappy with his ups and downs then trade him for someone you think will have less of them. Then at least you can stop making silly statements and complaining about one of the best young QBs in the game.

That's the whole point. He's one of the best young QBs in the game. The variance and frequency of his mediocre to poor fantasy games is kind of shocking right now. Not sure why that makes you so angry. It's a discussion forum. Chill.

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The Chargers didn't do him any favors (for this season) by pairing him up with a rookie NFL head coach. He has a learning curve as well, and they've lost some winnable games. Most teams do, but it seems to happen more with the Chargers imo. 

 

Now, maybe the coach and QB will have a great decade together. But for now, Herbert and Staley are having growing pains together instead. It's a talented team that will continue to struggle. Might make the playoffs, though. 

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Seems to me his mediocre performances are a product of bad days by the offensive line, they're allowing way too much pressure. It doesn't always translate directly into sacks, but there are too many plays where the pocket is collapsing pretty quickly and he has no time or space to operate effectively. It correlates with the ability of the defensive coordinators / HC ability to disguise where the rush is coming from - the Charger's OL is having problems identifying who to block too often.

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Justin Herbert completed 30-of-41 passes for 382 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick, adding 90 yards on nine carries in the Chargers' Week 11 win over the Steelers.

Herbert flashed his multi-dimensional skill set tonight with an array of scrambles, and he finished with a season-high 90 rushing yards against the Steelers. He was also brilliant as a passer, hooking up for touchdowns twice through the air with Austin Ekeler and once with Mike Williams on what ended up being the game-winning touchdown. Herbert faces a stingy Broncos defense in Week 12, but he remains a QB1 for fantasy purposes despite that.

Nov 21, 2021, 11:47 PM ET

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
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Justin Herbert completed 22-of-39 passes for 236 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the Chargers' 34-28, Week 15 overtime loss to the Chiefs, adding five carries for 16 yards and an additional score. 

Herbert's interception came on a first quarter batted ball. While solid, Herbert's night could have been something else entirely had his pass catchers not dropped at least four touchdowns. The Chargers also kept dialing up the wrong play on fourth down, failing one time after another. Astoundingly, the Chargers got inside the Chiefs' five-yard line and came away with zero points three different times. That is how you lose a ballgame to the twice-defending AFC champions. As usual, Herbert wowed the internet with 1-2 absolute laser beams, including his fourth quarter touchdown strike to Keenan Allen in a maze of traffic. Playing at a near-MVP level, Herbert has a fantasy semifinals smash spot in the Texans. 

Dec 17, 2021, 12:09 AM ET

 

 

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