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2020 Draft: Don't be surprised if... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter daveR
- Start date
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
somebody trades up to #2 for a QB
Soulfly3
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Because if you think you have a franchise QB you don't **** around and take a chance someone else moves up to #2. You go one spot higher to guarantee you get your guy. Multiple teams are without a franchise QB in striking distance.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
perhaps. i just dont see WAS (or any team for that matter) passing on what most consider a generational college talent.
i get the point tho... but youd have to overpay the point of ludicrousy, i imagine
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
......the Lion's screw this up.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
I'm gonna go with a very unpopular choice: After Burrow, the QBs are in for long night...
My thinking is this:
1. 4 OTs will go in the top 12. Some teams may even trade up for them.
2. There are several stud defensive players that will also go top 12. (Young, Okudah, Brown, Simmons, and maybe Kinlaw) . Let's say 4 in the top 12.
3. There are 2-3 WRs that will go top 12. Let's leave Ruggs out and say 2 WRs.
**NOTE** That is Burrow + 10 other players that are top talents and make an immediate impact on a team
4. Now, how many teams drafting in the top 20 need a QB? MIA definitely. Probably JAX and LAC but JAX will likely go 0-16 and get Lawrence next year. MIA and LAC know other teams drafting high are set at QB. So why not wait until later to pick a QB.
5. Tua has been hurt and Hebert, while strong armed, has question marks.
6. Neither is likely to start this year in a COVID environment with maybe no training camp or preseason.
7. The teams that pick late and do need a QB (PIT, NE, maybe NO) have nothing to trade to get into the top 15 picks
So for those reasons, I'm thinking Tua and Hebert fall into the teens. And through trades maybe MIA, LAC or JAX get them there rather that using their high picks on players that are unlikely to make an impact in 2020.
Probably all wrong, but it's my draft night projection.
My thinking is this:
1. 4 OTs will go in the top 12. Some teams may even trade up for them.
2. There are several stud defensive players that will also go top 12. (Young, Okudah, Brown, Simmons, and maybe Kinlaw) . Let's say 4 in the top 12.
3. There are 2-3 WRs that will go top 12. Let's leave Ruggs out and say 2 WRs.
**NOTE** That is Burrow + 10 other players that are top talents and make an immediate impact on a team
4. Now, how many teams drafting in the top 20 need a QB? MIA definitely. Probably JAX and LAC but JAX will likely go 0-16 and get Lawrence next year. MIA and LAC know other teams drafting high are set at QB. So why not wait until later to pick a QB.
5. Tua has been hurt and Hebert, while strong armed, has question marks.
6. Neither is likely to start this year in a COVID environment with maybe no training camp or preseason.
7. The teams that pick late and do need a QB (PIT, NE, maybe NO) have nothing to trade to get into the top 15 picks
So for those reasons, I'm thinking Tua and Hebert fall into the teens. And through trades maybe MIA, LAC or JAX get them there rather that using their high picks on players that are unlikely to make an impact in 2020.
Probably all wrong, but it's my draft night projection.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
Taylor is the 3rd RB taken
Tua falls, hard, but doesnt hurt himself
Tua falls, hard, but doesnt hurt himself
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
This is going to be a really interesting draft. There seems to be really high demand for QBs, OLs, and WRs so it won't surprise me to see a lot of trading up/down as teams try to outposition each other.
All of which means don't be surprised if blue chip D prospects like Simmons, Okuda, or Brown slide out of Top 10 picks.
All of which means don't be surprised if blue chip D prospects like Simmons, Okuda, or Brown slide out of Top 10 picks.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
I think this is true. But I wonder if the virtual communication is going to allow this to work smoothly.
The Dolphins have a ton of picks to use. They could easily outbid any other team. If anybody did move to two it would be them. It may not be as ludicrous as you might think since I doubt other teams would be willing to get into a bidding war. It's highly unlikely to happen but it could.
-OZ-
Footballguy
The bidding would be against Chase Young (unless he goes 1). That alone requires the offer to be along the lines of the RG3 deal. Or maybe Ricky Williams.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I agree!
The Dolphins owner is almost 80 and this could be his last chance to get that franchise QB in his lifetime. They have a ton of picks. It wouldn't surprise if they were willing to over pay assuming they were in love with the QB. I think Tua still goes high.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Funnily enough, I think you are both right.
No question that with each warroom now a cluster of individual team stakeholders connected with each other, and at least one of them with NFL central to pass along picks, there is going to be a ton of room for things to go sideways. I imagine that's how the NFL will set it up as each warroom likely has at least 5-10 people, and the NFL would likely want to preserve integrity by connecting with 32 POCs on each team than a huge room of well over 160 individuals. Actually interested in how this is specifically going to be set up.
This said, I see equal probability of tech misfiring, or the threat of tech misfiring preventing draft day trading with the volume we may have seen in the past.
On the other hand, with the league also willing to stop the clock, I can also see teams claiming to suffer from a tech outage (whether that's true or not) to take advantage of time stoppages to give them more time to finalize deals.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I've seen some talk about Simmons not specializing in any one single position (e.g. ILB, OLB, S) and thus teams wanting to avoid the possibility of him not fitting to their defensive need.
Me? I think all that is just smokescreen to get him to fall. But it's an interesting point about Simmons' skill set. The best team he could go to is one with a defensive coordinator who is progressive and can utilize his versatility.
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Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
What is different about picking up the phone to call another GM while at the draft vs picking up the phone at home to call?
The biggest issue, IMO, will be the GMs being able to Skype with their scouts and staff. Not GM to GM. To my knowledge the process of trading is the same... pick up a phone
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Redskins negotiating:
See here's a comp for you. This one time, this team traded 3 firsts and a second for the number 2 pick. That seems like a fair baseline.
-OZ-
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
This is a fair point.
How does BB knock out the WiFi to the other 31 teams except for his calls?
BINGBING
Footballguy
All these teams claiming they are on 1999 AOL dial-up like they can't make this work (even though we were all doing live mock drafts on our computers in 2001) will lead to a franchise sabotaging the draft and cutting off their connection in order to field trade offers for their pick.
I think the biggest concern is that they are going to get hacked by Bill Belichick.
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
Dude, it's Redskins... need we say more? However, I think Redskins would make a rare smart decision to stick with Chase Young to make their defensive line even more dominant.
A few days leading up to the NFL Draft have been nothing but smokescreen and lies generating by good folks around the league.
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Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Ruggs is the 2nd WR taken
OAK, PHI, DEN, MIN and N.O. all go WR in Round 1
Jordan Love slips to Round 2
OAK, PHI, DEN, MIN and N.O. all go WR in Round 1
Jordan Love slips to Round 2
Deamon
Footballguy
I would actually be quite surprised at all of those. Not really the 2nd, I think more than 5 WR's are going to go. No way Love slips that far... gotta thing someone would trade up into spot 31/32 for him at that point.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Spike
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Don't he surprised if Darrynton Evans goes ahead of CEH.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
Final top 16 mock. And true to my earlier comment QBs will fall, and I have them falling here way beyond where others have them going. And if I'm wrong, who the hell cares 
1. CIN – Joe Burrow, QB – kind of an obvious pick at this point
2. WAS – Chase Young, DE – despite the best intents to trade this pick, nothing emerges and WAS takes the best pass rusher on the board. WAS probably source of the draft package they were offered anyway. Don’t see anyone moving up this high.
3. DET – Isaiah Simmons, LB - All kinds of stuff could happen here. They really need Simmons more than Okudah and just re-signed some lower tier CBs. To me that’s a sign they’ve locked in on the all-purpose Simmons over Okudah.
4. NYG – Tristan Wirfs, OT – Okudah in play here but I think they end up going OT. Whether that is Wills, Wirfs or Thomas.
5. MIA – Jedric Wills, OT – Obviously Tua is in play here. But primary need is to build an OL so a QB can succeed.
6. TB (from LAC for 14, 71, and OJ Howard) – Andrew Thomas, OT – I think the Bucs are in the trade up game. They need a starter at OT now, not later. If they wait for 14 there’s nothing left. I don’t see how they can trade for Trent cause his salary is too high for their cap. I could see them trying to get to #2 or 3 to pick their preferred OT.
7. CAR - Derrick Brown, DT – Desperate need for an interior run stuffer.
8. ARI – Jeffrey Okudah, CB – I think they intend to trade this pick if the top 3 OTs are gone. But with Okudah falling, they get a good piece on D for a few years if nobody moves up
9. DEN (from JAX for 15 and 46) – Jerry Jeudy, WR – DEN can’t wait around at 15 for a WR. The top 3 will be gone. JAX will have a top 3 pick next year. No need to rush for a QB.
10. MIN (from CLE for 22 and 25, CLE returns #74) - Cee Dee Lamb, WR – MIN really needs an impact WR. They will need to trade up to get one.
11. NYJ – Mekti Beckton, OT – pick of need. Worry about this guy staying in shape though. I could see them trading this pick if the QBs are here. Maybe a team like NE would try to move up. This appears to be the last OT of top 15 value though.
12. LV – Henry Ruggs, WR – Having been leaped by 2 other teams after WRs, LV takes the next top tier WR on board
13. MIA (from SF for 18 and 56) – Tua Tagovailoa, QB – MIA trades to get back up above LAC to snag their preferred QB, and pays very little to do so. And MIA has another 1st round pick. By picking OT earlier, they did this right.
14. LAC – Justin Hebert, QB – The guy is gonna slide. I think he could be excellent. Very athletic. But he’s in Aaron Rodgers draft day land. Not enough teams need him. Too many question marks.
15. JAX – Javon Kinlaw, DT – Major need and they need lots of picks to rebuild the mess the Khans have created.
16. ATL – CJ Henderson, CB – Definite need. Could see them move up if they are worried about a team taking him. Could also see them move up for Simmons or Okudah if they fall.
1. CIN – Joe Burrow, QB – kind of an obvious pick at this point
2. WAS – Chase Young, DE – despite the best intents to trade this pick, nothing emerges and WAS takes the best pass rusher on the board. WAS probably source of the draft package they were offered anyway. Don’t see anyone moving up this high.
3. DET – Isaiah Simmons, LB - All kinds of stuff could happen here. They really need Simmons more than Okudah and just re-signed some lower tier CBs. To me that’s a sign they’ve locked in on the all-purpose Simmons over Okudah.
4. NYG – Tristan Wirfs, OT – Okudah in play here but I think they end up going OT. Whether that is Wills, Wirfs or Thomas.
5. MIA – Jedric Wills, OT – Obviously Tua is in play here. But primary need is to build an OL so a QB can succeed.
6. TB (from LAC for 14, 71, and OJ Howard) – Andrew Thomas, OT – I think the Bucs are in the trade up game. They need a starter at OT now, not later. If they wait for 14 there’s nothing left. I don’t see how they can trade for Trent cause his salary is too high for their cap. I could see them trying to get to #2 or 3 to pick their preferred OT.
7. CAR - Derrick Brown, DT – Desperate need for an interior run stuffer.
8. ARI – Jeffrey Okudah, CB – I think they intend to trade this pick if the top 3 OTs are gone. But with Okudah falling, they get a good piece on D for a few years if nobody moves up
9. DEN (from JAX for 15 and 46) – Jerry Jeudy, WR – DEN can’t wait around at 15 for a WR. The top 3 will be gone. JAX will have a top 3 pick next year. No need to rush for a QB.
10. MIN (from CLE for 22 and 25, CLE returns #74) - Cee Dee Lamb, WR – MIN really needs an impact WR. They will need to trade up to get one.
11. NYJ – Mekti Beckton, OT – pick of need. Worry about this guy staying in shape though. I could see them trading this pick if the QBs are here. Maybe a team like NE would try to move up. This appears to be the last OT of top 15 value though.
12. LV – Henry Ruggs, WR – Having been leaped by 2 other teams after WRs, LV takes the next top tier WR on board
13. MIA (from SF for 18 and 56) – Tua Tagovailoa, QB – MIA trades to get back up above LAC to snag their preferred QB, and pays very little to do so. And MIA has another 1st round pick. By picking OT earlier, they did this right.
14. LAC – Justin Hebert, QB – The guy is gonna slide. I think he could be excellent. Very athletic. But he’s in Aaron Rodgers draft day land. Not enough teams need him. Too many question marks.
15. JAX – Javon Kinlaw, DT – Major need and they need lots of picks to rebuild the mess the Khans have created.
16. ATL – CJ Henderson, CB – Definite need. Could see them move up if they are worried about a team taking him. Could also see them move up for Simmons or Okudah if they fall.
Dez
Footballguy
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