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20 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Let's say June/July/August normally gets an owner $30k for his house. Now his prices are going to fall this summer for sure, how much, who knows? But let's say 15%, so now he gets $25k (assuming almost 100% occupied), and then his house is occupied at 65% to what normally happens every summer.

An owner can go through hell to try and pick up 60-70% of a normal summer if lucky, or he can capitulate, take the safety net, and move on. I need to find those owners, and they def exist. 

They're already booked, they started booking up before the Corona Virus happened.  Sure there will be cancellations but it'll be a week here and there, not a three month period height of season.  If you're wanting to do this you're looking at 2021 not this summer.

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28 minutes ago, Buckychudd said:


They're already booked, they started booking up before the Corona Virus happened.  Sure there will be cancellations but it'll be a week here and there, not a three month period height of season.  If you're wanting to do this you're looking at 2021 not this summer.

Unemployment is going to top 20% in May while we have a pandemic raging. I'm not trying to be a #### here, but cancellations will be more than here or there. I'm a good consumer, honestly one of the best, and that's not to be arrogant, but I'm excellent at looking at the macro picture and coming to the most logical conclusion... That's why I'm efficiently sitting in a castle near Disney as opposed to an apartment in NYC right now (and was doing so 2 weeks before the world officially collapsed). And I'm not trying to be a ####, and I'm truly sorry that this season will prob suck for you (along with almost any other property-for-income owner out there), I really wish it wouldn't, but there is no getting around the facts of what is happening right now, and how it will impact these types of business owners.

The situation in Disney isn't Apples to Apples with a beach house, obviously. The demand won't go off a cliff like it did here, but it will fall aggressively based on the first sentence in this post, that's basically a fact. Personally, if I was an owner and someone came along that could guarantee 50% of what I normally get, I'd consider it.

I gave you the numbers already; maybe you run at 70% occupied (I would consider this very lucky!) at a discount of 15% to 2019 rates. Could be just a little better, but also could be much much worse depending on things shake out. 

I'm in a development right now where houses would go for $10-$20k a month during spring break. In a conversation I had with an owner jogging by my house (we kept a good distance from each other), only 10 houses are full-time residents, the other 90 are businesses. There are maybe 15 houses in this neighborhood currently occupied. So the owner of the house I have until June took my offer, while every other house here produces $0. He was the smart business owner, I was the smart consumer.

I wish you the best this summer; you sound smart enough to hopefully financially plan to take a slight hit on this house this summer. Unfortunately, it will not be the same as 2019 unless something drastic happens in the next 6 weeks. 

ETA: I believe 2021 could be a strong bounce-back candidate where the savvy owners come out stronger and the dumber ones get hurt. 

Edited by fantasycurse42
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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Unemployment is going to top 20% in May while we have a pandemic raging. I'm not trying to be a #### here, but cancellations will be more than here or there. I'm a good consumer, honestly one of the best, and that's not to be arrogant, but I'm excellent at looking at the macro picture and coming to the most logical conclusion... That's why I'm efficiently sitting in a castle near Disney as opposed to an apartment in NYC right now (and was doing so 2 weeks before the world officially collapsed). And I'm not trying to be a ####, and I'm truly sorry that this season will prob suck for you (along with almost any other property-for-income owner out there), I really wish it wouldn't, but there is no getting around the facts of what is happening right now, and how it will impact these types of business owners.

The situation in Disney isn't Apples to Apples with a beach house, obviously. The demand won't go off a cliff like it did here, but it will fall aggressively based on the first sentence in this post, that's basically a fact. Personally, if I was an owner and someone came along that could guarantee 50% of what I normally get, I'd consider it.

I gave you the numbers already; maybe you run at 70% occupied (I would consider this very lucky!) at a discount of 15% to 2019 rates. Could be just a little better, but also could be much much worse depending on things shake out. 

I'm in a development right now where houses would go for $10-$20k a month during spring break. In a conversation I had with an owner jogging by my house (we kept a good distance from each other), only 10 houses are full-time residents, the other 90 are businesses. There are maybe 15 houses in this neighborhood currently occupied. So the owner of the house I have until June took my offer, while every other house here produces $0. He was the smart business owner, I was the smart consumer.

I wish you the best this summer; you sound smart enough to hopefully financially plan to take a slight hit on this house this summer. Unfortunately, it will not be the same as 2019 unless something drastic happens in the next 6 weeks. 

ETA: I believe 2021 could be a strong bounce-back candidate where the savvy owners come out stronger and the dumber ones get hurt. 

Let me know what you find.  You can get something like what Drunken Cowboy posted, but I don't think you're getting to the beach.

My take is the season will be a little worse than normal but not significantly so.  People are still going to vacation and they're more likely to go to a relatively uncrowded beach than NYC, Vegas, overseas, or Orlando.  Prices for most of the summer are already locked with the bookings that happened pre-Corona.  For the cancellations, sure folks will give you a deal for a week here and there but they're not going to kick renters out to book you at a huge discount.

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53 minutes ago, Buckychudd said:

Let me know what you find.  You can get something like what Drunken Cowboy posted, but I don't think you're getting to the beach.

My take is the season will be a little worse than normal but not significantly so.  People are still going to vacation and they're more likely to go to a relatively uncrowded beach than NYC, Vegas, overseas, or Orlando.  Prices for most of the summer are already locked with the bookings that happened pre-Corona.  For the cancellations, sure folks will give you a deal for a week here and there but they're not going to kick renters out to book you at a huge discount.

I'm going to start looking Mid-May, it's way too early right now... This thread provided a ton of places to search, thanks everyone. I'll eventually report back with my findings.

My family, we're like a group of Nomads right now. If we return to NYC, it won't be for more than a year or two.  

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Unemployment is going to top 20% in May while we have a pandemic raging. I'm not trying to be a #### here, but cancellations will be more than here or there. I'm a good consumer, honestly one of the best, and that's not to be arrogant, but I'm excellent at looking at the macro picture and coming to the most logical conclusion... That's why I'm efficiently sitting in a castle near Disney as opposed to an apartment in NYC right now (and was doing so 2 weeks before the world officially collapsed). And I'm not trying to be a ####, and I'm truly sorry that this season will prob suck for you (along with almost any other property-for-income owner out there), I really wish it wouldn't, but there is no getting around the facts of what is happening right now, and how it will impact these types of business owners.

The situation in Disney isn't Apples to Apples with a beach house, obviously. The demand won't go off a cliff like it did here, but it will fall aggressively based on the first sentence in this post, that's basically a fact. Personally, if I was an owner and someone came along that could guarantee 50% of what I normally get, I'd consider it.

I gave you the numbers already; maybe you run at 70% occupied (I would consider this very lucky!) at a discount of 15% to 2019 rates. Could be just a little better, but also could be much much worse depending on things shake out. 

I'm in a development right now where houses would go for $10-$20k a month during spring break. In a conversation I had with an owner jogging by my house (we kept a good distance from each other), only 10 houses are full-time residents, the other 90 are businesses. There are maybe 15 houses in this neighborhood currently occupied. So the owner of the house I have until June took my offer, while every other house here produces $0. He was the smart business owner, I was the smart consumer.

I wish you the best this summer; you sound smart enough to hopefully financially plan to take a slight hit on this house this summer. Unfortunately, it will not be the same as 2019 unless something drastic happens in the next 6 weeks. 

ETA: I believe 2021 could be a strong bounce-back candidate where the savvy owners come out stronger and the dumber ones get hurt. 


This isn’t directed at you but the current landscape of what happening to a lot of neighborhoods in America.... 

The place where you live should’t even be called a a neighborhood. It’s an apartment complex. Just like an apartment complex, the renters DGAF. 
 

Just a gross trend all around. 
 

 

 

ETA - Oh, I agree with your line of thinking on finding a vacation spot. If I’m an owner of one of those apartment houses I’d go for a bird in the hand to cover my butt for the year. 

Edited by STEADYMOBBIN 22
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I have a friend with a place a couple hundred yards off the beach in Pine Knoll Shores. It doesn't have a pool, but is only a couple hundred yards from the beach. I have stayed there a bunch of times. It is a nice place. If you want me to out you in touch with him, let me know.

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  • 1 month later...
On 4/23/2020 at 3:16 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

I'm going to start looking Mid-May, it's way too early right now... This thread provided a ton of places to search, thanks everyone. I'll eventually report back with my findings.

My family, we're like a group of Nomads right now. If we return to NYC, it won't be for more than a year or two.  

Any luck?  My place booked solid this summer.

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On 4/23/2020 at 11:38 AM, Buckychudd said:

So are you talking specifically North and South Carolina?

In NC I've stayed all over the Outer Banks from Duck to Ocracoke, 12-15 times.  Emerald Isle, Atlantic Beach, Oak Island, Carolina and Kure beach, Oak Island.  I have a house on Topsail Island that I'm at right now.

In SC I've done Myrtle, Sullivan's Isle & Isle of Palms near Charleston (and visited most of the others around Charleston), Harbor Island, Hilton Head, and Daufuskie Island.

Most are pretty uncrowded, exceptions being Myrtle, and to a lesser extent the Wilmington, Charleston, and Hilton Head beaches and maybe Nags Head in OBX.

Problem is for the time-frame you're talking about you're going to have a tough time finding open rentals.  Honestly you're going to have to go inland for a two month rental 6 weeks out.

just saw this post, where on topsail are you?  i’m here RIGHT NOW....omg!

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On 4/23/2020 at 12:55 PM, E-Z Glider said:

Put me in the camp of gonna be tough to find a place. I suspect more people will be vacationing locally this summer rather than flying, and I'm guessing the beach houses will book up quick as soon as the green light is given. Every beach town up and down the coast will be packed.

Seems to be coming to fruition.

Wish we had reservations for OBX instead of "down the shore" this summer. I think I could socially distance anywhere in OBX. I think its gonna be a ####-show in Joisey. Not sure if we're gonna go or not yet.  :kicksrock:

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3 hours ago, Buckychudd said:

Any luck?  My place booked solid this summer.

We changed strategies. It was interesting looking at the date of when I created this thread....

Our intentions were to head up the coast and land in NYC by early September. Instead, we went south and I think we're going to move to Palm Beach. 

Congrats on filling up for the summer!!

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23 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

We changed strategies. It was interesting looking at the date of when I created this thread....

Our intentions were to head up the coast and land in NYC by early September. Instead, we went south and I think we're going to move to Palm Beach. 

Congrats on filling up for the summer!!

👍

Not super familiar with Palm Beach, hope you enjoy.

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On 6/2/2020 at 11:06 AM, E-Z Glider said:

Seems to be coming to fruition.

Wish we had reservations for OBX instead of "down the shore" this summer. I think I could socially distance anywhere in OBX. I think its gonna be a ####-show in Joisey. Not sure if we're gonna go or not yet.  :kicksrock:

Yeah, we booked June reservations in February for Indian Rocks Beach FL (between Clearwater and St. Pete Beach). Canceled them during Lockdown. Waited until reopening was officially official.  Had to spend a couple hundred extra on a slightly nicer place since Top 3 choices were gone. Still plenty of places there though since this is their low season. (High season is snowbirds plus Spring Training - November thru April).  Socially distancing shouldn't be too bad if we do takeout. Biggest thing to do there is sunset on the beach.

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On 4/23/2020 at 1:02 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

But this is to my point. If the place is vacant during those times, the owner gets killed. If I can't find one for $15k, I'll just stay in Disney.

I don't understand how these places will be swarmed when unemployment currently sits between 15 & 20%. 

Unemployment isn’t that high. Plenty of open jobs. Once the $1000 benefits run out it will fall like a rock. Speaking of which, you are now competing for beach homes with couples making $100k on unemployment and that have nothing to do

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8 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Unemployment isn’t that high. Plenty of open jobs. Once the $1000 benefits run out it will fall like a rock. Speaking of which, you are now competing for beach homes with couples making $100k on unemployment and that have nothing to do

13.5%, from a call over 6 weeks ago, not bad. 

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