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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Antonio Gibson, Washington


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On 12/23/2020 at 5:12 PM, FGITLOTR said:

I’m not comfortable starting him in my championship. Those injuries linger and he could easily play a few snaps and get hurt again. 

Hard to play him unless you need upside.  Its too bad as its a great matchup.

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https://twitter.com/BenStandig/status/1306342615940562945?s=19 From the offensive coordinator:   On Antonio Gibson: "His role will continue to grow" On Peyton Barber snap coun

In Canton. Yes.  

I think it's very risky. Crowded backfield, franchise instability. But the payoff is a three down back that can catch bombs.  His per touch numbers in college break all models. His highlights include

So who's rolling the dice with Gibson? My other options aren't great in Gallman, Edwards, or Ito Smith. Obviously if healthy Gibson is the pick but who knows with the foot? Gallman the best volume choice? I might roll the dice with Gibson. Not helpful he's the late game though compared to my other options.

Edited by Shatner!
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22 minutes ago, Shatner! said:

So who's rolling the dice with Gibson? My other options aren't great in Gallman, Edwards, or Ito Smith. Obviously if healthy Gibson is the pick but who knows with the foot? Gallman the best volume choice? I might roll the dice with Gibson. Not helpful he's the late game though compared to my other options.

Of those choices is go Gibson. Gallman split work last week and the other guys aren't very exciting to me. Obviously you run the risk of playing limited snaps but I'd take that risk in your case.

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44 minutes ago, Shatner! said:

So who's rolling the dice with Gibson? My other options aren't great in Gallman, Edwards, or Ito Smith. Obviously if healthy Gibson is the pick but who knows with the foot? Gallman the best volume choice? I might roll the dice with Gibson. Not helpful he's the late game though compared to my other options.

If he plays I’m putting him in over Zeke/Pollard.  I need to swing for the fence.

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1 hour ago, Shatner! said:

So who's rolling the dice with Gibson? My other options aren't great in Gallman, Edwards, or Ito Smith. Obviously if healthy Gibson is the pick but who knows with the foot? Gallman the best volume choice? I might roll the dice with Gibson. Not helpful he's the late game though compared to my other options.

Have him in over Gallman right now. 

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Washington RB Antonio Gibson (toe) is expected to play in week 16 against the Panthers.

Gibson has been since Week 13 when he hurt his toe on the first drive and did not return. He logged a full week of limited practices and should be in line to resume seeing a massive workload. The Football Team is expected to be without Terry McLaurin and could also be down Alex Smith for Week 16. That likely pushes them toward a run-heavy approach, furthering the volume for Gibson. Once made active, he'll immediately become a low-end RB1.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Dec 27, 2020, 8:14 AM ET

 

 

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1 minute ago, PizzaDeliveryGuy said:

Not in love with it. Deciding between 2 of M. Davis, Gibson, Johnson actually.

 

Reason to start Johnson...When targeted, wide receivers have had success against the Colts, as highlighted by the 9.28 yards per target, which ranks as the second-highest number in the league behind only the Lions. There have been 21 different wide receivers who've seen more than five targets against the Colts (we know Johnson is getting that), and 18 of them finished with at least 10.2 PPR points, while 11 of them finished with 15-plus PPR points. (FantasyPros)

Edited by JoeSteeler
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Not sure what to make of this recent tweet about Gibson warming up??

https://twitter.com/Mitch_Tischler/status/1343273613919715328?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Edit: Gibson officially Active, according to Matthew Berry. Lamar Miller Inactive, so that potentially bodes well for their confidence in Gibson. We shall see....

https://twitter.com/MatthewBerryTMR/status/1343280439075737603?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Edited by Stat Correction
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For those of us playing in week 17, what gives with Gibson? Are they just resting him so he can carry the rock 25 times in this game if they don't fall behind?

I've got Carson or him in my flex (good problem to have) and I really want to play AG, but would need some assurance by the afternoon that he is playing. 

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Washington RB Antonio Gibson (toe) is preparing to play in Week 17 against the Eagles.

Washington is playing for the coveted NFC East title and a playoff berth. All they need is a win over the Eagles and they make the postseason. They are expected to have Gibson, QB Alex Smith, and WR Terry McLaurin all back in the starting lineup this week. Gibson returned to the field last week but was playing without McLaurin or Smith. He saw 10 carries and four targets while J.D. McKissic saw four carries and ten targets. Gibson slots in as an RB2 in what could be the final game of his rookie season. This is the first time all three will be active since Week 13. 

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Jan 3, 2021, 8:59 AM ET

 

 

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Antonio Gibson rushed 14 times for 31 yards in Washington's Wild Card loss to the Buccaneers.

In the regular season, Gibson rushed for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns on 170 carries (4.7 YPC) while adding 36-247-0 on 44 targets as a receiver. It took a few weeks to get the early-down work to himself, but once he did, Gibson was a weekly upside RB2. Despite being a gadget player in college, Gibson is on a bellcow trajectory in the NFL. He should take big leaps with more in-game reps next season and possibly could supplant J.D. McKissic as Washington's third-down back. If that happens, Gibson could flirt with RB1 numbers next season, particularly if Washington can find stability at quarterback. He has prime David Johnson-level upside.

Jan 10, 2021, 12:18 AM ET

 

 

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  • 2 months later...

Awfully quiet thread for a guy that is ranked as high as he is coming into this season. Gotta bump just a little bit for Fitzmagic. TD upside just went up a small notch. He is already going 2nd/3rd round of redrafts and came off at 3.06 in my SF startup a few days ago as the 10th RB off the board. Before Henry, Ettienne and CEH and right after Dobbins and Harris.

He really took over the job in the last half of the season and I expect him to really feast this year. I don't know how much room there really is to bump him now that I've looked at this closer. But in a crappy WFT offense I would peg him for 6-9 TDs, now I think he is a lock for double digits with upside for ~15.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

I think his peak upside is slightly capped by Curtis Samuel, as they tend to have overlapping skillsets in some areas. 

But even with that, he's going to be the primary RB and should be a good bet to match or exceed the 10 TDs he had last year.

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5 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I think his peak upside is slightly capped by Curtis Samuel, as they tend to have overlapping skillsets in some areas. 

But even with that, he's going to be the primary RB and should be a good bet to match or exceed the 10 TDs he had last year.

I've heard this in more than one spot. I don't really get it though. Aren't all pass catching RBs overlapped somewhat by receivers? Or am I missing the point?

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14 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I've heard this in more than one spot. I don't really get it though. Aren't all pass catching RBs overlapped somewhat by receivers? Or am I missing the point?

Curtis Samuel was used as a WR and RB at Ohio State.  It was very odd (to me anyway) when Carolina drafted him and CMC.  It was like they picked the same guy twice.

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36 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I've heard this in more than one spot. I don't really get it though. Aren't all pass catching RBs overlapped somewhat by receivers? Or am I missing the point?

No, I don't think you're missing the point.  But for all the people who are salivating over the possibility that Gibson is CMC 2.0, they had to get a little bit of piss in their corn flakes when Rivera brought in a guy who he has a history with.

I'm not saying that Samuel is going to play RB2 and get 100 carries, but every game he should get a few of those high-value plays where he lines up in the backfield and runs a route or gets a screen pass.  That's going to be enough to limit the peak of what Gibson could accomplish.  If they signed more of a traditional guy as their WR2, this wouldn't even be in consideration.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

No, I don't think you're missing the point.  But for all the people who are salivating over the possibility that Gibson is CMC 2.0, they had to get a little bit of piss in their corn flakes when Rivera brought in a guy who he has a history with.

I'm not saying that Samuel is going to play RB2 and get 100 carries, but every game he should get a few of those high-value plays where he lines up in the backfield and runs a route or gets a screen pass.  That's going to be enough to limit the peak of what Gibson could accomplish.  If they signed more of a traditional guy as their WR2, this wouldn't even be in consideration.

Weren't CMC and Samuel on the same team the last few seasons?

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Weren't CMC and Samuel on the same team the last few seasons?

Yeppers.

Samuel is a problem for any WR not named Terry.

Gibson had 11 TDs (I think?) and averaged 4.7 ypc playing with Haskins.
He was a 3rd rounder entering a crowded backfield. 
He is now the man. 
And has traded up at QB.  

Buy buy buy buy buy buy buy 

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I am excited for Gibson but also all I hear from every which way is "buy buy buy" which tells me maybe people should be selling? 

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3 hours ago, tangfoot said:

No, I don't think you're missing the point.  But for all the people who are salivating over the possibility that Gibson is CMC 2.0, they had to get a little bit of piss in their corn flakes when Rivera brought in a guy who he has a history with.

I'll be the first big Gibson fan to say I really don't see that. I know I know, what a stretch to say a guy isn't going to be the best FF running back in years. I do see a workhorse back that is an electric playmaker who will get lots of targets, despite Samuel's presence. My biggest concern is that McKissic is still there. I mentioned this when this all came up before but I had it in my head that he had been released. He eats into Gibson's targets more than Samuel, but my rose colored glasses say that Gibson was a rookie and that the share will be more favorable this year. But it gives me pause that McKissic is still there.

Samuel helps McLaurin and the WR corps (who else is there - Sims and Sims?) much much more than he hurts Gibson, IMO. My take is that the offense as a whole should get small bumps for Fitz *and* for bringing in Samuel. This only helps Gibson. If Logan Thomas picks up where he left off and if Fitz can be the slinger that he usually is, this offense should actually be really good.

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25 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I am excited for Gibson but also all I hear from every which way is "buy buy buy" which tells me maybe people should be selling? 

I honestly doubt anyone is really selling. I sold one share with my future 1st for Russell Wilson in FFPC SF and I think that was basically at cost for each of them. But I only did it because I had 3 other stud RBs already - otherwise I would have kept him. For anyone that is selling it isn't going to be low. 

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Just now, barackdhouse said:

Washington defense is also really good. Could be some short fields and positive game scripts. I really think his TD upside is immense. 

In terms of upside, we all know he came into college as a WR.  I think we are well within our rights to feel like his passing game upside takes a seat to no one.  Expecting CMC numbers is silly, and not sure I've seen anyone say that.  

McLaurin is the only volume guy on the team. Samuel has never been a target hog.  I own Samuel.  I wish he was good enough to be a threat to Gibson. There is obviously going to be spell backs who catch the rock, but there is no obvious impediments to Gibson getting a lot of targets.  

I was pretty disappointed he didn't get more run in the passing game, especially once he was the lead dog, but that was just being greedy. 

I'll be looking for coachspeak this summer one way or the other.  

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23 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I honestly doubt anyone is really selling. I sold one share with my future 1st for Russell Wilson in FFPC SF and I think that was basically at cost for each of them. But I only did it because I had 3 other stud RBs already - otherwise I would have kept him. For anyone that is selling it isn't going to be low. 

Exactly, he is the guy everyone is saying to buy who nobody is selling. Which means if you did try to sell, you are likely getting a big return coming. 

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39 minutes ago, massraider said:

I was pretty disappointed he didn't get more run in the passing game, especially once he was the lead dog, but that was just being greedy. 

I'll be looking for coachspeak this summer one way or the other.  

So he was getting consistent targets early in the season while he learned the run fits. Then he took over and still got a healthy target share, but I think his turf toe injury kind of capped him after that. His last fully healthy game in week 12 he had 7 targets. Through 11 games at that point he was on a 57 target 16 game pace. For a rookie RB learning the position in a pandemic that is pretty encouraging.

If he only maintains that pace this year with him dominating the running work, I'm very much on board. There is a universe where a 2nd year RB gets more targets than his first year as well. He isn't CMC but I don't think top 5 dynasty back is out of the question by this time next year. There are at least a few older stud RBs that are going to fall in value.

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51 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Exactly, he is the guy everyone is saying to buy who nobody is selling. Which means if you did try to sell, you are likely getting a big return coming. 

The other thing is that people who are holding player x that everyone is talking about (positively), are more likely to be in love with them and not want to sell in the first place. If *you* drafted the rookie, and the rookie blew up on *your* team, then you're the *one* person in your league who is most likely to be intimately aware of it. Others can sniff around but buying low just isn't going to happen.

Other rookies that didn't blow up on someone's team, like CEH, might be a different story. But the expectations based on draft capital are huge because those two guys production weren't terribly dissimilar. Biggest difference was Gibson had 11 TDs. But their futures are almost identical in my book, but I can arguably buy low on CEH because owners who drafted him hate him whereas Gibson owners are likely in love. Even though they might be basically the same RB in terms of production.

Edited by barackdhouse
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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

Exactly, he is the guy everyone is saying to buy who nobody is selling. Which means if you did try to sell, you are likely getting a big return coming. 

In February, in an FFPC superflex best ball dynasty, I traded Calvin Ridley and a 2022 1st for Gibson and the 2.08. I thought it was pretty even. It's often difficult to trade for RBs in FFPC leagues.

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I dont think Curtis Samuel is any more of a threat to Gibsons targets than he was to CMC. Samuel is a constraint player who can play RB thats true but the way he has been used by Rivera before it did not prevent CMC from having 100+ targets. Similar OC in Norv Turners son known to feed the RB more than any other coach I can think of.

Samuel should help Gibson be more open on certain plays and formations where the defense has to respect counters built into the play for Samuel.

I do think Gibson should take a step forward in his 2nd season as he has earned more trust from the coaches that hopefully reduces McKissic involvement in the passing game. I think it was too much to put on Gibsons plate as a rookie but the intent of the coaches is to have Gibson handle as much as he can.

Edited by Biabreakable
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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Attempting to acquire from a guy that finished last and his first pick is 2.10. Will report back.

Didn't work. I offered 1.6, 2.1, 3.12, and third next year for Gibson and the 2.10.

He said he'd need more than the 1.6 to move Gibson. My offer was a little light, but it looked to me like two starters for one. But I'm sure he'll be good with Gibson and...uh..Javian Hawkins or whatever.

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11 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Didn't work. I offered 1.6, 2.1, 3.12, and third next year for Gibson and the 2.10.

He said he'd need more than the 1.6 to move Gibson. My offer was a little light, but it looked to me like two starters for one. But I'm sure he'll be good with Gibson and...uh..Javian Hawkins or whatever.

You need the 3rd RB to fall to you, and go somewhere sexy.

Of course, if he goes somewhere sexy, he ain't falling to 1.06, right?

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10 minutes ago, massraider said:

You need the 3rd RB to fall to you, and go somewhere sexy.

Of course, if he goes somewhere sexy, he ain't falling to 1.06, right?

That's only if you have to replace an RB with an RB at that spot. But this guy's team was the worst in the league last year - and it shows. About all he has is Gibson - and I have both his 1.1 and 2.1.

What he needs to do is turn something worth a dollar into two things that add up to a buck fifty, even if that means they're worth eighty and seventy cents a piece.

This gets into a discussion about roster construction that probably belongs elsewhere.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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