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RB Antonio Gibson, WAS


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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

For me its not really a question of how talented the players are compared to each other but a question about a rookie RB opportunity to catch passes.

I think it helps that the coaching staff is the same as the staff that gave McCaffrey 113 targets as a rookie but I think the competition is too crowded for Gibson to have that many snaps and opportunities.

That said receptions to RB has been going up in recent years, I was more conservative about this possibility before McCaffrey than I am now.

Good catch Terpman22 as I missed Sanders reaching the 50 reception threshold last year. I think that puts Sanders in good company as far as his ability as a receiver goes.

ETA missing Barkleys rookie season from that list as well.

Kamara also. 

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3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Went 25, 26, 19, 24 in my drafts, none by me.  Too rich for my blood and I

Hank?? You there, bud???

eta* He went 28th in ours and I was desperately hoping he'd fall to me at 30 after I took Dillon with 25. Some guy traded up and nabbed him.  

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On 6/6/2020 at 9:18 PM, Biabreakable said:

70 receptions seems very optimistic to me.

Since 2000 these are the RB who had 50 receptions or more in their rookie seasons:

LaDanian Tomlinson 74 targets 59 receptions.

Reggie Bush 121 targets 88 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey 113 targets 80 receptions.

Tariik Cohen 71 targets 53 receptions.

Duke Johnson 74 targets 61 receptions.

Guivanni Bernard 71 targets 56 receptions.

Thats it. I think 70 targets could be in the cards but not 70 receptions.

This list is way off. There are actually 16 players who did it. Based on this data, i would say that is probably a 50% chance at least one RB in this rookie class gets at least 50 receptions in 2020. Now that being said, CEH is probably the most likely but I would maintain that it would not be that surprising if it were Gibson.


Games    Receiving
Rk    Player    Year    Age    Draft    Tm    Lg    G    GS    Tgt    Rec    Yds    Y/R    TD    Y/G    Ctch%    Y/Tgt
1    Saquon Barkley    2018    21    1-2    NYG    NFL    16    16    121    91    721    7.92    4    45.1    75.2%    5.96
2    Reggie Bush    2006    21    1-2    NOR    NFL    16    8    121    88    742    8.43    2    46.4    72.7%    6.13
3    Alvin Kamara    2017    22    3-67    NOR    NFL    16    3    100    81    826    10.20    5    51.6    81.0%    8.26
4    Christian McCaffrey    2017    21    1-8    CAR    NFL    16    10    113    80    651    8.14    5    40.7    70.8%    5.76
5    Matt Forte    2008    23    2-44    CHI    NFL    16    16    76    63    477    7.57    4    29.8    82.9%    6.28
6    Nyheim Hines    2018    22    4-104    IND    NFL    16    4    81    63    425    6.75    2    26.6    77.8%    5.25
7    Edgerrin James*    1999    21    1-4    IND    NFL    16    16    82    62    586    9.45    4    36.6    75.6%    7.15
8    Duke Johnson    2015    22    3-77    CLE    NFL    16    7    74    61    534    8.75    2    33.4    82.4%    7.22
9    LaDainian Tomlinson*    2001    22    1-5    SDG    NFL    16    16    74    59    367    6.22    0    22.9    79.7%    4.96
10    Jahvid Best    2010    21    1-30    DET    NFL    16    9    80    58    487    8.40    2    30.4    72.5%    6.09
11    Giovani Bernard    2013    22    2-37    CIN    NFL    16    0    71    56    514    9.18    3    32.1    78.9%    7.24
12    Tarik Cohen    2017    22    4-119    CHI    NFL    16    4    71    53    353    6.66    1    22.1    74.6%    4.97
13    Kareem Hunt    2017    22    3-86    KAN    NFL    16    16    63    53    455    8.58    3    28.4    84.1%    7.22
14    Trent Richardson    2012    22    1-3    CLE    NFL    15    15    70    51    367    7.20    1    24.5    72.9%    5.24
15    Miles Sanders    2019    22    2-53    PHI    NFL    16    11    63    50    509    10.18    3    31.8    79.4%    8.08
16    Steve Slaton    2008    22    3-89    HOU    NFL    16    15    59    50    377    7.54    1    23.6    84.7%    6.39
 

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10 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah my PFR search failed. Sorry about that.

No worries it’s a good discussion all around and I’ve enjoyed reading through this thread. 50-70 receptions as a rookie is a difficult feat. You have to not only be a really talented receiver but also land in a spot where the coaching staff will take advantage of that skill. I’d separate him pretty quickly from CMC and Saquon as those guys were extremely polished guys coming out. And he’s not in a system that you know will have a high end receiving back like Bush and Kamara. It’s clear he will enter the league with elite receiving skills for a back. Despite the obvious difference in size between him and Cohen that might be the best usage comp as a rookie. Cohen was on a team with an early down back and not a whole lot else on offense. Gibson’s size gives him a much much higher ceiling though. If something were to happen to Guice again...
 

He’s just such a wildcard with such a bizarre profile. How does a guy with his size, speed, power, elusiveness, and efficiency only get 71 touches? And he scored 12 tds. And in Juco he only got 93 touches...and scored 16 times on them! When I think of a guy who went the juco route I always perceive him to be older for some reason but Gibson isn’t, he’s still a couple weeks shy of 22.

I don’t buy that the Washington backfield is crowded. Barber and McKissic are just dudes. ADP probably is just that as well. Love is coming off a difficult recovery from a major injury. Guice has a lot of talent IMO but he’s one of the lesser established starters out there. Heck, there are 3 more established starters in his division alone along with Kamara CMC Jones Dalvin in the conference. The situation at rb there isn’t really all that daunting compared to the rest of the league. 

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On 6/8/2020 at 4:31 PM, Cobbler1 said:

No worries it’s a good discussion all around and I’ve enjoyed reading through this thread. 50-70 receptions as a rookie is a difficult feat. You have to not only be a really talented receiver but also land in a spot where the coaching staff will take advantage of that skill. I’d separate him pretty quickly from CMC and Saquon as those guys were extremely polished guys coming out. And he’s not in a system that you know will have a high end receiving back like Bush and Kamara. It’s clear he will enter the league with elite receiving skills for a back. Despite the obvious difference in size between him and Cohen that might be the best usage comp as a rookie. Cohen was on a team with an early down back and not a whole lot else on offense. Gibson’s size gives him a much much higher ceiling though. If something were to happen to Guice again...
 

He’s just such a wildcard with such a bizarre profile. How does a guy with his size, speed, power, elusiveness, and efficiency only get 71 touches? And he scored 12 tds. And in Juco he only got 93 touches...and scored 16 times on them! When I think of a guy who went the juco route I always perceive him to be older for some reason but Gibson isn’t, he’s still a couple weeks shy of 22.

I don’t buy that the Washington backfield is crowded. Barber and McKissic are just dudes. ADP probably is just that as well. Love is coming off a difficult recovery from a major injury. Guice has a lot of talent IMO but he’s one of the lesser established starters out there. Heck, there are 3 more established starters in his division alone along with Kamara CMC Jones Dalvin in the conference. The situation at rb there isn’t really all that daunting compared to the rest of the league. 

I think its good to look at what players have done before to get a sense of how realistic a prognostication might be.

I can counter that logic as well because Gibson might be used as a WR at times and get additional targets that way. It is possible and the coaches have already stated an intent to use him in multiple ways.

Rookie WR do not typically get a lot of targets either, that usually takes a year, sometimes longer for them to reach their full potential, part of it just about the team they are on and the competition around them that determines their opportunity.

I do not expect as much from a player in their rookie seasons. Even RB who are the most ready to play right away for any position historically perform better on average  in their 2nd to 6th seasons than they do in their rookie season.

As far as his competition, I think Guice is a really good RB should he be healthy. I also will not bet against Peterson getting carries until he is actually out of the league, although he is no real threat to Gibson getting passing opportunities. That would be Love and McKissic and I do like Gibsons chances to earn playing time over them.

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  • 3 weeks later...
10 minutes ago, KChusker said:

Realistic ceiling comparison?

I was thinking David Johnson but not sure

The NFL is closer to position less football than ever before--just not sure the Redskins are the team that's going to lead the breakthrough

I understand. But Carolina was never a pillar of hope. Look what they did with CMC.

 

I feel bad in a bit for him. Guy gives it his all. Probably won’t sniff winning team. But money is good. 

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3 hours ago, Blackbear said:

He’s a lot like cmc or Ekeler. CMC bulked up. But fifty fifty guy. Like those. 

Ekeler actually could be a nice career arc comp. He’s got 2 years with Guice, Ekeler had his first 2 years with Melvin then got a few games to start during the holdout. Gibson should get a chance to flash as a receiving threat out of the backfield like Ekeler did early on. He is a lot bigger so he may have more early down upside ala David Johnson but he’s so raw there who knows. Style wise I see some DJ when he runs and the background as a receiver is there.

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Washington signed No. 66 overall pick RB/WR Antonio Gibson to a four-year contract.

Coach Ron Rivera compared Gibson's skill set to Christian McCaffrey's. He's expected to be manufactured touches all over the fueld. Gibson was underutilized at Memphis but arguably the most efficient player in the entire country (15.6 yards per touch). PFF credited him with 16 broken tackles on 33 carries and 17 broken tackles on 38 receptions. Nevertheless, his lack of total production (77 career offensive touches) makes him difficult to project. Gibson ran with power and elusiveness with the ball in his hands but is extremely raw. His vision is a potential concern as a running back, and he didn’t look like a natural receiver when he lined up in the slot, though his 4.39 speed makes him an intriguing, versatile depth option who has special teams experience. Gibson averaged an elite 28.0 yards on his 23 kickoff returns. Gibson is a high-upside weapon for an offense that was short on them. 

Jul 22, 2020, 4:48 PM ET

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

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Antonio Gibson has been cross-training at both running back and receiver.

This was expected given how Gibson was used in college. Washington views Gibson as a running back, but his best path to rookie snaps may be as a receiver. Gibson’s versatility should get him on the field, but he projects more as a multi-position backup than true X-factor.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jul 31, 2020, 6:04 PM ET

 

 

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9 hours ago, Faust said:

 

Antonio Gibson has been cross-training at both running back and receiver.

This was expected given how Gibson was used in college. Washington views Gibson as a running back, but his best path to rookie snaps may be as a receiver. Gibson’s versatility should get him on the field, but he projects more as a multi-position backup than true X-factor.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jul 31, 2020, 6:04 PM ET

I tend to shy away from players who play multiple positions for the reason of "jack of all trades, but master at none" philosophy.  Not saying Gibson can't be very good, just saying I tend to look at these types of players with a skeptical eye.  I hope he finds his niche and excels at it.

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I tend to shy away from players who play multiple positions for the reason of "jack of all trades, but master at none" philosophy.  Not saying Gibson can't be very good, just saying I tend to look at these types of players with a skeptical eye.  I hope he finds his niche and excels at it.

Agreed, but I think it’s a plus with Gibson, long-term. He’s really a unique talent because those types are usually much smaller (lighter). 
 

They drafted him as a RB & that’s where he’ll make his mark. Gibson could be one of those guys who excels at the pro level with little production in college. 
 

I love his upside, bit quite a bit is still unknown at this point. 

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The Washington Post reports Derrius Guice was arrested Friday on domestic violence-related charges.

The charges include three counts of assault and battery, destruction of property, and one count of strangulation — a felony charge. It's the latest blow to Guice, who missed 11 games to knee setbacks last year after losing his entire rookie year to ACL surgery. Guice is facing at least a six-game suspension under the NFL's domestic violence policy and is in danger of getting released. Guice's off-field issues clear a path to snaps for Bryce Love and rookie Antonio Gibson.

SOURCE: Washington Post

Aug 7, 2020, 6:25 PM ET

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cobbler1 said:

Haha. I was planning to target Gibson in my redrafts. How high does he rise now? 5th-6th?

Depends what his position is classified as. If he gets RB/WR, I think he could go in the 5th for sure.

Where does he go in rookie drafts now? I can see him being a 1st rounder.

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Washington’s Fantasy Outlook Following Derrius Guice’s Release

Excerpt:

Quote

Antonio Gibson instantly comes to mind when thinking of who can benefit the most following Guice’s release. The rookie out of Memphis was one of the most talked-about under the radar prospects coming into the season, which saw his ADP climb in rookie drafts. When someone who only had 33 rushing attempts is getting comparisons to David Johnson (when he was good), you start to pay attention.

Since the start of the offseason, I have said that Gibson is one of the best pass-catchers of this whole running back class. The only players I put in his category are Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift. Gibson saw the majority of his touches split out as a wide receiver, and given Ron Rivera’s love to get running backs in space via the pass, you have to be excited for what can happen. 

Gibson currently is going as RB52, but this will rise swiftly following today’s news. Even with an inflated ADP, Gibson could give a massive return on investment for fantasy football owners selecting him for bench depth. 

 

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9 hours ago, travdogg said:

Depends what his position is classified as. If he gets RB/WR, I think he could go in the 5th for sure.

Where does he go in rookie drafts now? I can see him being a 1st rounder.

Looking at redraft guys like Swift and Akers with more draft capital are going late 5. He really shouldn’t go ahead of them. In dynasty, yeah he’s probably in the 11-15 range now. 

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27 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Still not high on him. He's not really a RB. He's a WR that runs bad routes with a RB title. I can understand being excited about his situation but I just don't like the skill set. 

He's got a couple things going for him, he has great speed, burst and fluidity; he can make defenders miss pretty easily. 

But he lacks the subtly, like proper technique or instincts for either rb or wr. Very possible he's a better athlete than a football player.

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32 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

He's got a couple things going for him, he has great speed, burst and fluidity; he can make defenders miss pretty easily. 

But he lacks the subtly, like proper technique or instincts for either rb or wr. Very possible he's a better athlete than a football player.

Christine Michael 2.0?

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Christine Michael 2.0?

A lot of fair points being made. I don’t see much of a comparison to Michael in that Gibson has a  higher floor in ppr, given that he’s an elite receiver for a RB. Maybe he doesn’t ever become enough of a runner to be an every down back but he should be able to contribute as a satellite back. A souped up Chris Thompson or Tarik Cohen would be intriguing.

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Quote

Charles Robinson @CharlesRobinson

Notable that Sharp had a lot to say about Washington RB Antonio Gibson in this pod. Worth a listen in the wake of the Derrius Guice release.

Quote

Terez A. Paylor @TerezPaylor

In our 2020 NFL Preview with @SharpFootball we cover all the topics below - plus a must-listen fantasy sleeper segment at 35:25 - and much more! @CharlesRobinson

@YahooSports NFL Podcast ⬇️

pod.link/1423422627

https://twitter.com/charlesrobinson/status/1292082349639970816?s=21

https://twitter.com/terezpaylor/status/1291737634591703041?s=21

 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Christine Michael 2.0?

Good analogy, but I think in style he's more like Cordarrello Patterson. We'll see if Gibson can put it together a little better. At least Patterson turned out not completely useless in the NFL, although a bum in fantasy. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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He's is either going to be some sort of mild star, a Percy Harvin type, or he's going to be useless in FF. Guice getting cut does not add even a little value for Gibson imo. If he realizes his talent he'll get on the field either way, but he's not a guy who will play just because the Washington Football Team needs some one to carry the ball. That's Peyton Barber or Adrian Peterson.

Edited by cloppbeast
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24 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Good analogy, but I think in style he's more like Cordarrello Patterson. We'll see if Gibson can put it together a little better. At least Patterson turned out not completely useless in the NFL, although a bum in fantasy. 

Oh no that's not what I'm thinking. CP should have switched positions. He was an elite runner. Mega-elite. 

 

I do agree they both lack route running skills. 

Edited by Milkman
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2 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

He's is either going to be some sort of mild star, a Percy Harvin type, or he's going to be useless in FF. Guice getting cut does not add even a little value for Gibson imo. If he realizes his talent he'll he get on the field either way, but he's not a guy who will play just because the Washington Football Team needs some one to carry the ball. That's Peyton Barber or Adrian Peterson.

Guice getting cut adds a BUNCH of value to Gibson. It's not rocket science. In fact, his ADP will likely take a big jump.

Super-high ceiling, but there's still a lot of projecting to do with him & just exactly how he'll be used & how much of his raw ability can be fulfilled.

Gibson was a great pick for those who took a chance on him. He makes an ideal 2nd round pick in dynasty leagues (before the Guice news). I got him at pick 17 right after the NFL draft, which was a quite a bit higher than his ADP, but I wanted to make sure I landed him, especially since I had other 2nd-rounders.

 

Edited by Football Jones
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3 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

He's is either going to be some sort of mild star, a Percy Harvin type, or he's going to be useless in FF. Guice getting cut does not add even a little value for Gibson imo. If he realizes his talent he'll he get on the field either way, but he's not a guy who will play just because the Washington Football Team needs some one to carry the ball. That's Peyton Barber or Adrian Peterson.

I don't see the Christine Michael analogy at all as Gibson has much more hip fluidity and quickness.  I see no resemblance to Corderelle.  Harvin is the guy he most reminds me of although he is bigger and able to take more of a pounding. Another comp might be Ty Montgomery.

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Antonio Gibson, WAS

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