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Will Tom Brady throw for 5000 yards this season?


Will Tom Brady throw for more than 5000 yards this season?   

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19 hours ago, Deamon said:

Why would an upgrade in QB mean more passing yards?  I think it will mean less.  Tampa was forced to throw the ball a lot by playing from behind... Tom won't be.

:goodposting:

This is obviously being underrated by some who are expecting 5K+. IMO he has virtually no chance at that many yards.

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This is obviously being underrated by some who are expecting 5K+. IMO he has virtually no chance at that many yards.

Here are the yearly passing totals for Arians teams (HC or OC) . . . 01 CLE - 3154 02 CLE - 3665 03 CLE - 3116 07 PIT - 3418 08 PIT - 3607 09 PIT - 4496 10 PIT - 3890 11 PIT - 4333

I'm glad the NFC has to deal with him for the next decade.  

On 5/4/2020 at 7:41 AM, FF Ninja said:

I'm just so curious if Arians will be able to adapt his vertical offense to Brady's dink and dunk arm. 

I am actually thinking it will go the opposite way.  I think Arians will hand TB the playbook and TB will study and adjust the playbook to his style of calling plays.  I don't think this is going to be as hard as people are thinking.  TB is 20 years in the league.  He is a coach on the field.  He is more than capable of calling his own plays.   

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21 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

:goodposting:

This is obviously being underrated by some who are expecting 5K+. IMO he has virtually no chance at that many yards.

Look at the schedule and tell me how many of those games Tampa is going to be leading comfortably on and why is the running game suddenly going to become Tampa's strength? 

Also, if you watched Tampa games last year, BA never took his foot off the gas on offense.  

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2 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Look at the schedule and tell me how many of those games Tampa is going to be leading comfortably on and why is the running game suddenly going to become Tampa's strength? 

Also, if you watched Tampa games last year, BA never took his foot off the gas on offense.  

How many of those Tampa games are they going to be down big and throwing from behind in the 2nd half?

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2 hours ago, Deamon said:

So even PFF (who is the highest out there on Brady's numbers this year) has him under 5000.

Let the hype train begin.  A little under 10% believe.  I think Brady did this with a plan. 

 

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2 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Let the hype train begin.  A little under 10% believe.  I think Brady did this with a plan. 

 

Did what with a plan? 

Again, even the people who are hyping his passing stats the MOST have him below the 5000.  5000 seems very, very, very unlikely.  The fact that 10% of people in here think there's a 51% chance he hits 5000 yards shocks me.  But I'm assuming some just hit yes for the heck of it.

FBG top 4 staffers have him at 4200 4600 4200 4600.  All of those are a long ways off of 5000.  That's an extra couple games.

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11 hours ago, Deamon said:

Did what with a plan? 

Again, even the people who are hyping his passing stats the MOST have him below the 5000.  5000 seems very, very, very unlikely.  The fact that 10% of people in here think there's a 51% chance he hits 5000 yards shocks me.  But I'm assuming some just hit yes for the heck of it.

FBG top 4 staffers have him at 4200 4600 4200 4600.  All of those are a long ways off of 5000.  That's an extra couple games.

Plan? Brady went to Tampa because he knows what he needs out of an offense and he wants to go out with a bang.  His legacy changes completely if he wins a Super Bowl in Tampa.  If he sets offensive records.  To show that it was him in NE, not Bill.  And he ran a hurry up, gas pedal to the ground offense before. 

And I know where the staffers have him at.  That is why I posted early.  I have a feeling those estimates are going to be fluid as we head to the season.  I am happy to start the hype train.   

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I voted no.  Close call though.  He has had an awful set of weapons for about 5-6 years in NE.  Ever since BB ran Moss out of town.  Gronk and Edelman were good, but that's less weapons that he will have in TB.  And his OL in NE was full of holes.  But still, 5000 yards is a lot for a guys who has only done it once in 20 years and is 43 yrs old.    I'm also not sure Brady will be asked to throw as much as Winston was cause they won't be losing so much.  I'd say 4,400 if he stays healthy

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5 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Plan? Brady went to Tampa because he knows what he needs out of an offense and he wants to go out with a bang.  His legacy changes completely if he wins a Super Bowl in Tampa.  If he sets offensive records.  To show that it was him in NE, not Bill.  And he ran a hurry up, gas pedal to the ground offense before. 

And I know where the staffers have him at.  That is why I posted early.  I have a feeling those estimates are going to be fluid as we head to the season.  I am happy to start the hype train.   

Ya sure I agree on all of the above.  Doesn't mean he hits 5000.

This seems like it has turned into a "Will TB have an amazing season or not" poll.  You can be on the hype train, be all pumped on Tom's talents and how good they will do this year, but still think that he won't be the top passing QB in the league (I doubt more than 1 hits 5000 yards this year).  I don't think you and some of the others are realizing just how rare 5000 is.  Outside of Brees there has been SEVEN 5000 yard passing seasons in NFL history. 

I think Tom will do better than almost everyone thinks, and STILL don't think he will hit 5000.

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I am sure I will get flamed no mater what I post, as I have been tabbed as both the biggest Brady lover and Brady hater by different people. I hate to ever agree with Eli Manning, but I think it will be tougher for Brady than people are making it out to be. Brady's numbers have been dropping the last few years. Many will point to the rest of the NE offense and not Brady as the cause for this, and I am not sure I am 100% on board with that conclusion.

Here were his annual passer rating numbers: 2016: 112.2, 2017: 102.8, 2018: 97.7, 2019: 88.0
Here were his PFF rating scores (and rankings): 2016: 98.0 (1), 2017: 95.5 (1), 2018: 90.7 (5), 2019: 80.4 (10)

I watched all of NE's games last season, and IMO, Brady was not as sharp as in prior seasons. Maybe that's because he knew he was leaving after the season, the lack of talent, injuries, play calling  . . . who knows. He had 4 strong games at the beginning of the season, but really struggled over the second half of the season . . . which BTW was when his OL was healthy and played the best it did all season.

Week 09: 80.4 rating, 6.2 YPA
Week 10: 67.3 rating, 4.6 YPA
Week 11: 70.8 rating, 5.1 YPA
Week 12: 85.9 rating, 6.9 YPA
Week 13: 63.3 rating, 4.7 YPA
Week 14: 86.6 rating, 4.4 YPA
Week 15: 111 rating, 8.2 YPA 
Week 16: 88.4 rating, 7.6 YPA
Playoff: 59.4 rating, 5.6 YPA

Over that stretch, Brady had a 56.5% completion, 5.9 YPA, and 78.5 passer rating. To put things into perspective, here's where Brady would have ranked in those categories if he had performed at that level over the entire season:

Completion%: 32 out of 32 qualified QB, YPA: 32 out of 32 qualified QB, Passer Rating: 31 out of 32 qualified QB (Andy Dalton was at 78.3)

By comparison, let's look at Peyton Manning's 2014 season, where his YEARLY TOTALS looked good (66.2% completion, 4,727 passing yards, 39 TD, 15 INT, 7.9 YPA, 101.5 passer rating). But his second half of the season numbers didn't look anywhere near as good. Over his final 8 games: 62.7% completion, 84.6 passer rating, 6.9 YPA. Like I just spelled out for Brady, had Manning produced like that over the entire season:

Completion%: 21 out of 32 qualified QB, YPA:  27 out of 32 qualified QB, Passer Rating: 23 out of 32 qualified QB

We all know what happened to Manning the following year at 39 . . . playing with the same great batch of offensive players he did the season before.

I get it . . . Brady hasn't had multiple neck surgeries. He's moving to a team with more weapons. It's potentially the greatest collection of offensive talent he's ever played with. But it doesn't change he will be 43 years old. Playing with an entirely different set of players (except Gronk). In a new system. Without the demanding standards of BB. Potentially with very little ramp up or practice time. IMO, there's a reason BB didn't want Brady (not the other way around), and it's not just about money (NE could have figured out a way to get under the cap if they actually wanted him).

I don't believe 2020 Tom Brady is anywhere near 2007 Tom Brady, and that's the offensive comparison I have seen people making. I hope I'm wrong, as I love Brady. I really do hope he does well in Tampa. But I think he and the Bucs will have a lot of bumps along the way and things may not play out in the way some people are predicting. IMO, at 43, Brady is an average QB with good weapons. I don't think he will come anywhere near 5,000 passing yards. I think he will be a lot closer to 4K than 5K (if he plays 16 games).

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David, the next time i see someone call u a Brady lover will be the first time, u keep posting the same bradys all done stuff over and over again. I just don't see the brady falling off the cliff ala manning, he is not dealing with the nerve damage which changed changed the way he had to throw. There is other speculation as well that im not going to get into here.

U focus on reduced numbers the 2nd half of one yr and say "who knows" well apparently u do since u keep claiming the same thing over and over. Tuffer 2nd half schedule right? both fullbacks gone right? Sanu high ankle sprain right? Edelman a shell of himself right? No TE right? All of those are facts that make a pretty strong case as to why his performance might fall off and u shrug ur shoulder and say "who knows, maybe it was injuries or wanting leave town. Then after ignoring all of that you say you hope ur wrong, i think for whatever reason maybe u hope ur right, maybe its the serious man love u have for stidham "who knows".

Yes the virus is a legitimate concern for why things could be more difficult switching to a new team, u get no argument from me on that. I am arguing your he can't play anymore argument based on the 2nd half of last yr. I also won't quibble with you on him not reaching 5k passing yds but for different reasons. I feel he is more than capable but it is much more likely they won't need to and agree he will likely be closer to 4k. I see tampa playing a lot more conservatively thatn they did last yr and I think their def could be decent.

I dont know who if anyone is arguing brady is 2007 brady but it sure as heck aint me. I think he is still a top qb, how are we ranking them? PFF had 10th last yr and u think he was dreadful. I think he will go to tampa and have a good yr but whats a good yr? If tampa goes to the playoffs for the first time in 15+ yrs is that a good yr?

Anyway, its all good David i agree with you on many if not most things but dumping on brady aint one of em.

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27 minutes ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

David, the next time i see someone call u a Brady lover will be the first time, u keep posting the same bradys all done stuff over and over again. I just don't see the brady falling off the cliff ala manning, he is not dealing with the nerve damage which changed changed the way he had to throw. There is other speculation as well that im not going to get into here.

U focus on reduced numbers the 2nd half of one yr and say "who knows" well apparently u do since u keep claiming the same thing over and over. Tuffer 2nd half schedule right? both fullbacks gone right? Sanu high ankle sprain right? Edelman a shell of himself right? No TE right? All of those are facts that make a pretty strong case as to why his performance might fall off and u shrug ur shoulder and say "who knows, maybe it was injuries or wanting leave town. Then after ignoring all of that you say you hope ur wrong, i think for whatever reason maybe u hope ur right, maybe its the serious man love u have for stidham "who knows".

Yes the virus is a legitimate concern for why things could be more difficult switching to a new team, u get no argument from me on that. I am arguing your he can't play anymore argument based on the 2nd half of last yr. I also won't quibble with you on him not reaching 5k passing yds but for different reasons. I feel he is more than capable but it is much more likely they won't need to and agree he will likely be closer to 4k. I see tampa playing a lot more conservatively thatn they did last yr and I think their def could be decent.

I dont know who if anyone is arguing brady is 2007 brady but it sure as heck aint me. I think he is still a top qb, how are we ranking them? PFF had 10th last yr and u think he was dreadful. I think he will go to tampa and have a good yr but whats a good yr? If tampa goes to the playoffs for the first time in 15+ yrs is that a good yr?

Anyway, its all good David i agree with you on many if not most things but dumping on brady aint one of em.

If PFF had Brady QB1 after 5 weeks last year and QB25 the rest of the year to end the season at QB10, yes, he ended the year as a Top 10 QB. As I pointed out in the Brady thread, the QBs PFF ranked just after Brady were pretty bunched together, meaning with even a little additional drop off Brady would have been average vs. other starters.

Lots of people are buying into the narrative that NE had no weapons. A better way to phrase It would be Brady didn’t like his weapons. Harry could have been used more. Meyers could have been used more. What about Dorsett? He did great early on. Or White? Or Burkhead out of the backfield? Yes, Edelman being banged up was a big issue. But look back at the teams from the early to mid 2000s. Those weapons were worse. Brady made it clear he didn’t want to work with what he had to work with last year.

The reason I am more down on Brady than others is IMO his play has slipped, his skills have diminished some, and his attitude is not what it used to be. I know you don’t agree with a lot of that. But I am also concerned things can change quick for a 43 year old QB. I have listed any number of reasons why things may not work out smoothly. That doesn’t mean I have anything against Brady. Go back and read what I had to say about him in the Brady thread where I said he had the best stretch for a QB ever and the best stretch of QBs in the playoffs in the 4th quarter of games ever. Anything can happen. Hopefully things don’t get messed up and we get a chance to see.

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

If PFF had Brady QB1 after 5 weeks last year and QB25 the rest of the year to end the season at QB10, yes, he ended the year as a Top 10 QB. As I pointed out in the Brady thread, the QBs PFF ranked just after Brady were pretty bunched together, meaning with even a little additional drop off Brady would have been average vs. other starters.

Lots of people are buying into the narrative that NE had no weapons. A better way to phrase It would be Brady didn’t like his weapons. Harry could have been used more. Meyers could have been used more. What about Dorsett? He did great early on. Or White? Or Burkhead out of the backfield? Yes, Edelman being banged up was a big issue. But look back at the teams from the early to mid 2000s. Those weapons were worse. Brady made it clear he didn’t want to work with what he had to work with last year.

The reason I am more down on Brady than others is IMO his play has slipped, his skills have diminished some, and his attitude is not what it used to be. I know you don’t agree with a lot of that. But I am also concerned things can change quick for a 43 year old QB. I have listed any number of reasons why things may not work out smoothly. That doesn’t mean I have anything against Brady. Go back and read what I had to say about him in the Brady thread where I said he had the best stretch for a QB ever and the best stretch of QBs in the playoffs in the 4th quarter of games ever. Anything can happen. Hopefully things don’t get messed up and we get a chance to see.

Brady faded over the 2nd half of last season big time.  People who say he was 10th last year I agree is a bit exaggerated.  Probably middle of the row (You could also look at QB rating which has him near the end of the starting qb's last year).  With the improved weapons and possible Oline, I could see him getting a nice boost this year into the QB5-QB10 range.  I even  optimistically put him at the higher end of that closer to the QB5, which puts him no where close to the 5000 being debated here.  Those 14 Yes voters are attention seekers :P

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16 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

If PFF had Brady QB1 after 5 weeks last year and QB25 the rest of the year to end the season at QB10, yes, he ended the year as a Top 10 QB. As I pointed out in the Brady thread, the QBs PFF ranked just after Brady were pretty bunched together, meaning with even a little additional drop off Brady would have been average vs. other starters.

Lots of people are buying into the narrative that NE had no weapons. A better way to phrase It would be Brady didn’t like his weapons. Harry could have been used more. Meyers could have been used more. What about Dorsett? He did great early on. Or White? Or Burkhead out of the backfield? Yes, Edelman being banged up was a big issue. But look back at the teams from the early to mid 2000s. Those weapons were worse. Brady made it clear he didn’t want to work with what he had to work with last year.

The reason I am more down on Brady than others is IMO his play has slipped, his skills have diminished some, and his attitude is not what it used to be. I know you don’t agree with a lot of that. But I am also concerned things can change quick for a 43 year old QB. I have listed any number of reasons why things may not work out smoothly. That doesn’t mean I have anything against Brady. Go back and read what I had to say about him in the Brady thread where I said he had the best stretch for a QB ever and the best stretch of QBs in the playoffs in the 4th quarter of games ever. Anything can happen. Hopefully things don’t get messed up and we get a chance to see.

Referring to the bolded above: This is where we widely diverge and imo you go way off the deep end. The "narrative" as you dismissively call it is simply pointing out the obvious fact of the matter. Ya, brady doesn't like ####ty receivers who are inexperienced, drop the ball, dont run the right route and don't fight for the ball. 

But don't take my word for it, lets go back to wk13; u know, right around the time u insist brady became the problem. Its wk13 and every1 should b on the same page by now so let NFLs Mike Giardi report what he and i refer to as facts and you choose to dismiss as nothing more than "narrative". Keep in mind THIS IS WEEK13!!!!


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001083275/article/tom-brady-patriots-receivers-struggling-to-get-on-same-page

"So does Brady have a right to be upset? Thirteen weeks into the 2019 NFL season, his receivers are still struggling to get on the same page with him, leading to trust issues nearly across the board.

It started early in Houston. Rookie N'Keal Harry is the first first-round wide receiver Bill Belichick and the braintrust have selected since they arrived in Foxborough two decades ago. The pass catcher is chiseled out of stone -- 6-foot-2, 230 pounds. Yes, Harry missed the better part of summer camp and the regular season with an assortment of lower-leg injuries, but his big body paid dividends almost immediately upon his return, with a beautiful back-shoulder touchdown catch in the rain against Dallas. But in the opening quarter on Sunday night, he got schooled on a simple slant, costing the Patriots the football.

Harry ran the slant versus veteran Bradley Roby. With his power, Harry needed a good plant and acceleration to the spot, using his body to shield the Texans corner away from the ball. Instead, Roby made a subtle grab of Harry's jersey at the top of his route, which threw the entire process off because Harry didn't fight through it. That resulted in a softer route from the rookie, which allowed Roby to cut in front and come up with the interception. Harry had been heavily involved in the game plan to start. He would see the field for just 10 plays the remainder of the contest.

"I mean, I guess I could've used my body more," Harry told reporters postgame."


Meyers - UDFA Rookie (who i like but has a ways to go with re to running the right routes and drops) 


"Brady had his first on-the-field eruption just a few minutes later, screaming "Go!" in Jakobi Meyers' general direction as the Patriots tried to convert a third-and-6. Pressure moved Brady off his spot in the pocket, but the 20-year veteran deftly maneuvered to create a clear passing lane. Meyers, the undrafted rookie, had run a speed or quick out in the right flat but had a defender on his back shoulder, trailing the play. Brady gestured for Meyers to turn it up the field, but instead, the youngster stopped and worked his way back to his quarterback. Brady fired the ball down the sideline to where he wanted Meyers.

"He was trying to tell me to turn up and go," Meyers said. "I don't know honestly what I thought in the moment. I tried to push up, come back, give him a target. We were just on different pages."

"Just on different pages" is something that's not acceptable to Brady at this point in the season, and it's no doubt why he got really animated on the sideline after the play."


Phillip Dorsett

"There wasn't nearly enough improvement as the game wore on. Another example came near the end of the first half with the Patriots at midfield. Brady signaled to both Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett. Edelman got the memo. Dorsett either didn't see it or didn't know what it meant. Brady ended up launching the ball some 50 yards down the field to no one. Dorsett had run a stop instead of what appeared to be a visual request via a hand signal to run some sort of double move."

 

This is wk13 and yet in your opinion it is bradys fault, bad attitude, can't play anymore blah, blah and not the chicken #### he has in wk13 to work with.

Use Harry more as if its bradys fault he was inj most of the yr, doesn't fight for the ball and the HC effectively benches him?

Use Meyers more as if its bradys fault in wk13 when the udfa rookie still isn't sure where to go?

Use Dorsett more as if its bradys fault in wk13 Dorsette doesn't know where to go?

It is also of course fact (not narrative) that sanu & edelman were hurt badly in 2nd half and the tes were trash coming in day1 and going out. Everyone knew the pats were hurting at wr, thats why they signed AB and when that fell thru Sanu. You know all this is ftrue and yet u dismiss it as narrative.

 

James White  and throwing to the RBs

I will close with your suggestion that brady could/should have used his rbs "more" as I think it is illustrative of just how far removed from reality your opinion re brady has become.

James White was 5th in the nfl for receptions by a rb; how much more is he supposed to use him?

The patriots were the #2 team in the nfl targeting their rbs; how much more could he have used them?

As I said before, I like you David and most often agree with you but not buying the "brady had talent around but just didn't want to use it" narrative you are selling here. Again we agree on much and i don't deny there has been some drop off in skills but if u want to throw out numbers and ask questions like you did above, i'm going to respond. I freely admit I am biased with brady and my man love for him knows no bounds. I know the end is nigh but i can't help but feel ur reports of his nfl skills death are a bit premature. Its all good man; we shall see.

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56 minutes ago, NE_REVIVAL said:

Referring to the bolded above: This is where we widely diverge and imo you go way off the deep end. The "narrative" as you dismissively call it is simply pointing out the obvious fact of the matter. Ya, brady doesn't like ####ty receivers who are inexperienced, drop the ball, dont run the right route and don't fight for the ball. 

But don't take my word for it, lets go back to wk13; u know, right around the time u insist brady became the problem. Its wk13 and every1 should b on the same page by now so let NFLs Mike Giardi report what he and i refer to as facts and you choose to dismiss as nothing more than "narrative". Keep in mind THIS IS WEEK13!!!!


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001083275/article/tom-brady-patriots-receivers-struggling-to-get-on-same-page

"So does Brady have a right to be upset? Thirteen weeks into the 2019 NFL season, his receivers are still struggling to get on the same page with him, leading to trust issues nearly across the board.

It started early in Houston. Rookie N'Keal Harry is the first first-round wide receiver Bill Belichick and the braintrust have selected since they arrived in Foxborough two decades ago. The pass catcher is chiseled out of stone -- 6-foot-2, 230 pounds. Yes, Harry missed the better part of summer camp and the regular season with an assortment of lower-leg injuries, but his big body paid dividends almost immediately upon his return, with a beautiful back-shoulder touchdown catch in the rain against Dallas. But in the opening quarter on Sunday night, he got schooled on a simple slant, costing the Patriots the football.

Harry ran the slant versus veteran Bradley Roby. With his power, Harry needed a good plant and acceleration to the spot, using his body to shield the Texans corner away from the ball. Instead, Roby made a subtle grab of Harry's jersey at the top of his route, which threw the entire process off because Harry didn't fight through it. That resulted in a softer route from the rookie, which allowed Roby to cut in front and come up with the interception. Harry had been heavily involved in the game plan to start. He would see the field for just 10 plays the remainder of the contest.

"I mean, I guess I could've used my body more," Harry told reporters postgame."


Meyers - UDFA Rookie (who i like but has a ways to go with re to running the right routes and drops) 


"Brady had his first on-the-field eruption just a few minutes later, screaming "Go!" in Jakobi Meyers' general direction as the Patriots tried to convert a third-and-6. Pressure moved Brady off his spot in the pocket, but the 20-year veteran deftly maneuvered to create a clear passing lane. Meyers, the undrafted rookie, had run a speed or quick out in the right flat but had a defender on his back shoulder, trailing the play. Brady gestured for Meyers to turn it up the field, but instead, the youngster stopped and worked his way back to his quarterback. Brady fired the ball down the sideline to where he wanted Meyers.

"He was trying to tell me to turn up and go," Meyers said. "I don't know honestly what I thought in the moment. I tried to push up, come back, give him a target. We were just on different pages."

"Just on different pages" is something that's not acceptable to Brady at this point in the season, and it's no doubt why he got really animated on the sideline after the play."


Phillip Dorsett

"There wasn't nearly enough improvement as the game wore on. Another example came near the end of the first half with the Patriots at midfield. Brady signaled to both Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett. Edelman got the memo. Dorsett either didn't see it or didn't know what it meant. Brady ended up launching the ball some 50 yards down the field to no one. Dorsett had run a stop instead of what appeared to be a visual request via a hand signal to run some sort of double move."

 

This is wk13 and yet in your opinion it is bradys fault, bad attitude, can't play anymore blah, blah and not the chicken #### he has in wk13 to work with.

Use Harry more as if its bradys fault he was inj most of the yr, doesn't fight for the ball and the HC effectively benches him?

Use Meyers more as if its bradys fault in wk13 when the udfa rookie still isn't sure where to go?

Use Dorsett more as if its bradys fault in wk13 Dorsette doesn't know where to go?

It is also of course fact (not narrative) that sanu & edelman were hurt badly in 2nd half and the tes were trash coming in day1 and going out. Everyone knew the pats were hurting at wr, thats why they signed AB and when that fell thru Sanu. You know all this is ftrue and yet u dismiss it as narrative.

 

James White  and throwing to the RBs

I will close with your suggestion that brady could/should have used his rbs "more" as I think it is illustrative of just how far removed from reality your opinion re brady has become.

James White was 5th in the nfl for receptions by a rb; how much more is he supposed to use him?

The patriots were the #2 team in the nfl targeting their rbs; how much more could he have used them?

As I said before, I like you David and most often agree with you but not buying the "brady had talent around but just didn't want to use it" narrative you are selling here. Again we agree on much and i don't deny there has been some drop off in skills but if u want to throw out numbers and ask questions like you did above, i'm going to respond. I freely admit I am biased with brady and my man love for him knows no bounds. I know the end is nigh but i can't help but feel ur reports of his nfl skills death are a bit premature. Its all good man; we shall see.

That was.... a lot.

So do you think he throws for 5k?

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I seriously doubt he hits 5k, but there's room for some high-flying shenanigans out in Tampa this year.

Per PFF:

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – No. 1 WR Strength of Matchup Schedule

Yep, arguably the league’s best wide receiver duo draws the No. 1 schedule for wide receivers. They’ll also be catching passes from some guy named Tom Brady, who draws the No. 6 schedule for quarterbacks. Evans and Godwin get top-12 matchups in a whopping 10 of 16 games thanks to a favorable divisional schedule along with matchups against the Vikings, Giants and Raiders.

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2 hours ago, Deamon said:

That was.... a lot.

So do you think he throws for 5k?

No, I did address that in the post prior to the last. Not that I don't think he is capable but because I think Tampas def will be pretty good and factor in covid and it will be hard to implement a new system and hit the ground running. So no knock on him but considering the situation it seems high. I do think he will likely have a damn good yr but 5k seems high given the circumstances imho.  

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On 5/12/2020 at 3:46 PM, Anarchy99 said:

I am sure I will get flamed no mater what I post, as I have been tabbed as both the biggest Brady lover and Brady hater by different people. I hate to ever agree with Eli Manning, but I think it will be tougher for Brady than people are making it out to be. Brady's numbers have been dropping the last few years. Many will point to the rest of the NE offense and not Brady as the cause for this, and I am not sure I am 100% on board with that conclusion.

Here were his annual passer rating numbers: 2016: 112.2, 2017: 102.8, 2018: 97.7, 2019: 88.0
Here were his PFF rating scores (and rankings): 2016: 98.0 (1), 2017: 95.5 (1), 2018: 90.7 (5), 2019: 80.4 (10)

I watched all of NE's games last season, and IMO, Brady was not as sharp as in prior seasons. Maybe that's because he knew he was leaving after the season, the lack of talent, injuries, play calling  . . . who knows. He had 4 strong games at the beginning of the season, but really struggled over the second half of the season . . . which BTW was when his OL was healthy and played the best it did all season.

Week 09: 80.4 rating, 6.2 YPA
Week 10: 67.3 rating, 4.6 YPA
Week 11: 70.8 rating, 5.1 YPA
Week 12: 85.9 rating, 6.9 YPA
Week 13: 63.3 rating, 4.7 YPA
Week 14: 86.6 rating, 4.4 YPA
Week 15: 111 rating, 8.2 YPA 
Week 16: 88.4 rating, 7.6 YPA
Playoff: 59.4 rating, 5.6 YPA

Over that stretch, Brady had a 56.5% completion, 5.9 YPA, and 78.5 passer rating. To put things into perspective, here's where Brady would have ranked in those categories if he had performed at that level over the entire season:

Completion%: 32 out of 32 qualified QB, YPA: 32 out of 32 qualified QB, Passer Rating: 31 out of 32 qualified QB (Andy Dalton was at 78.3)

By comparison, let's look at Peyton Manning's 2014 season, where his YEARLY TOTALS looked good (66.2% completion, 4,727 passing yards, 39 TD, 15 INT, 7.9 YPA, 101.5 passer rating). But his second half of the season numbers didn't look anywhere near as good. Over his final 8 games: 62.7% completion, 84.6 passer rating, 6.9 YPA. Like I just spelled out for Brady, had Manning produced like that over the entire season:

Completion%: 21 out of 32 qualified QB, YPA:  27 out of 32 qualified QB, Passer Rating: 23 out of 32 qualified QB

We all know what happened to Manning the following year at 39 . . . playing with the same great batch of offensive players he did the season before.

I get it . . . Brady hasn't had multiple neck surgeries. He's moving to a team with more weapons. It's potentially the greatest collection of offensive talent he's ever played with. But it doesn't change he will be 43 years old. Playing with an entirely different set of players (except Gronk). In a new system. Without the demanding standards of BB. Potentially with very little ramp up or practice time. IMO, there's a reason BB didn't want Brady (not the other way around), and it's not just about money (NE could have figured out a way to get under the cap if they actually wanted him).

I don't believe 2020 Tom Brady is anywhere near 2007 Tom Brady, and that's the offensive comparison I have seen people making. I hope I'm wrong, as I love Brady. I really do hope he does well in Tampa. But I think he and the Bucs will have a lot of bumps along the way and things may not play out in the way some people are predicting. IMO, at 43, Brady is an average QB with good weapons. I don't think he will come anywhere near 5,000 passing yards. I think he will be a lot closer to 4K than 5K (if he plays 16 games).

agree with all of this. Maybe he ends up being the Nolan Ryan of football and can still throw a proverbial no-hitter at 44. But at 43, the body starts to break down a bit for most folks. And all the diet, training, fitness, yoga, meditation, and money can't stop it, you can only slow it down at best. He just has to play smart and stay healthy and he will put up a decent season. 

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Brady will be running the Arians offense. I’m sure that Brady will have plenty of input, but he is not bringing the Patriot offense to Tampa Bay.

From PFT:

“Buccaneers quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen told Bob Kravitz of TheAthletic.com that Brady has been open to learning a new system in Tampa Bay after a career in New England, and seems to fit what they are looking for.

Christensen worked with Peyton Manning in his prime in Indianapolis, and said this transition is different than when Manning went to Denver for a final act and took his playbook with him.

“You’re right, Peyton took his playbook and his way of doing things and when he looked at possible destinations in free agency, one of his priorities was to find a place where he could keep things the same,” Christensen said. “I’m sure there were some little changes, but for the most part, it was the vernacular he was used to. I think what we’ll see here [in Tampa] is Bruce’s offense with a Brady influence. Bruce wants to keep the offense the same. We did some good things last year….

Of course, Arians’ offense is significantly different than what Brady’s been running, and there will be more demands on the six-time champion to move the ball downfield more than he did a year ago. Christensen has seen nothing to suggest that’s an issue.

“I looked at every pass he threw for the last four years,” he said of Brady. “It was interesting because you had the possibility of [Drew] Brees, [Philip] Rivers, [Andy] Dalton, all those guys had a chance of becoming available, so we looked at all of them. And I’m telling you, anybody who says he’s lost arm strength, all I know is I must have missed something. Remember, they didn’t have those kinds of receivers [in New England] who could get deep. It wasn’t about anything that he couldn’t do….

 

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19 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

Christensen has seen nothing to suggest that’s an issue.

“I looked at every pass he threw for the last four years,” he said of Brady. “It was interesting because you had the possibility of [Drew] Brees, [Philip] Rivers, [Andy] Dalton, all those guys had a chance of becoming available, so we looked at all of them. And I’m telling you, anybody who says he’s lost arm strength, all I know is I must have missed something. Remember, they didn’t have those kinds of receivers [in New England] who could get deep. It wasn’t about anything that he couldn’t do….

This is the opinion I share.  

Why do people think that Arian's offense is so different from the offense Brady ran when the Pats had the superior talent at WR? The Pats offense would mutate to the talent on the roster.  I can remember pedal to the metal Pats offenses.  And I think that is how TB wants to go out.  Not dinking and dunking to 5'10" slot receivers. 

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2 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

This is the opinion I share.  

Why do people think that Arian's offense is so different from the offense Brady ran when the Pats had the superior talent at WR? The Pats offense would mutate to the talent on the roster.  I can remember pedal to the metal Pats offenses.  And I think that is how TB wants to go out.  Not dinking and dunking to 5'10" slot receivers. 

This is not the opinion I share (we can all have differing opinions). I have watched just about every pass TB has ever thrown, and IMO last year he suffered a significant drop off. There were plenty of times where a receiver was open and Brady missed him. The group think explanation was the receiver was the one in the wrong place, which I don't fully buy into. I remember multiple times where receivers were open on intermediate or deeper routes and Brady flat out missed them. If we go back to the year with Cooks, Cooks got open quite a bit downfield and passes were underthrown that would have been TD's if thrown properly . . . and several others were underthrown enough that PI was called to save the outcome of the play.

Last year there were several times when Dorsett or Edelman got behind defenders and Brady threw passes that were airmailed, well behind the receiver, or otherwise uncatchable. Over the past couple of years, Brady took to throwing passes inches off the ground to avoid any chance of interceptions . . . which several times hit receivers in the hands and were recorded as drops (but would have been very difficult receptions) . . . and more importantly, could have resulted in big plays on crossing routes if the passes were chest high (with guys open and running away from defenders).

Who knows what to believe, but it was reported that the Raiders were interested in Brady until Gruden looked at 2 years worth of game film and thought better of it. Brady over the years went from someone that threw to the open man to concentrating on one or two guys and ignoring most everyone else. Yes, it's true that he did not have great options to throw to last year, but I remember multiple times where guys not named Edelman were open and Brady would not even look at them. 

The NE offense has been predicated on guys having multiple hot reads on every play, and players were expected to have all of those options embedded in their brains to end up in the right spot. If Arians' system is not set up like that, or if Brady can't get all of the Tampa offense to think like he does, there is a decent chance things don't work out well on multiple plays per game. Another thing to consider is Arians wanted Winston to chuck the ball downfield and hope for the best. That has not been Brady's style . . . and the last few years those types have thrown have usually only come off of play action. I am guessing most teams would be happy to let Tampa run the ball and worry about pass coverage. I don't know enough about Arians to know how much or how effective he's used play action . . . but that's been the way Brady has gotten bigger plays. Who knows what will happen when risk adverse Brady won't throw 50/50 balls 40 yards down field? Will he look underneath instead? Will the line hold up while he dances around?

And that last thing that may prove to be the most important one. NE limited exposure and hits to Brady by having him get rid of the football in two seconds. Deeper routes require more time to throw, and Brady is the poster boy for standing in the pocket. Brady went from being the most lethal QB against the blitz to one of the least effective QBs against the blitz over the last few years. My fear for TB12 is him getting crushed by a 300-pound D-lineman and not getting off the mat.

I also expect that Brady will have more picks than usual when guys don't run the route he expects them to based on defensive coverage. So if Evans or Godwin think they are supposed to run a 15-yard square out past the sticks and Brady expects them to cut the route short at 8 yards, I can easily see there being mix ups that result in interceptions.

So yes, it is absolutely true that the Tampa weapons are infinitely better than the options last year in NE. But there are plenty of reasons to wonder how well things will work out in Tampa. And Brady is going to be 43.

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The predictions that he'll fall off the performance cliff are not aging well. He's in line for a wonderful year, barring injury from getting hit on dropbacks (as opposed to typical aging injuries).

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Just now, rockaction said:

The predictions that he'll fall off the performance cliff are not aging well. He's in line for a wonderful year, barring injury from getting hit on dropbacks (as opposed to typical aging injuries).

Did anyone project that he'd fall off a huge cliff?  I think this thread was just about over or under 5000 and the under voters are still looking like the smart ones.

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Did anyone project that he'd fall off a huge cliff?  I think this thread was just about over or under 5000 and the under voters are still looking like the smart ones.

Yeah, look right above you. You've got guys saying he'll be like Johnny Unitas or Joe Namath on the Rams.

eta* Seriously. It's literally right above your comment. You'll take the time to correct mine but won't even read the thread? Jeez.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, look right above you. You've got guys saying he'll be like Johnny Unitas or Joe Namath on the Rams.

 

True, I suppose there are a few haters who thought he would drop off.

Most of the thread is saying NO though to the crazy thought that he'd throw 5000 yards.  He's killing it, and will likely keep getting better, but I still don't think 5k is happening.

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Just now, Deamon said:

True, I suppose there are a few haters who thought he would drop off.

Most of the thread is saying NO though to the crazy thought that he'd throw 5000 yards.  He's killing it, and will likely keep getting better, but I still don't think 5k is happening.

There were at least two on this page alone.

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Just now, dcgangstas said:

And 41 TD passes.    Didn't see 5000, but that's still a hell of a season statistically.  

Yep I always thought he'd have a good year.  As did others.  The poll and whole reason for this thread was over/under 5000 passing yards.

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56 minutes ago, Capella said:

I remember anarchy ripping Brady all summer pretty good. Haven’t seen him in any of these threads lately. 

Oh yeah, he was sold on Belichick's decision and that it was New England that wanted Brady gone.

That looks like a big oops right now. 

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8 hours ago, rockaction said:

Oh yeah, he was sold on Belichick's decision and that it was New England that wanted Brady gone.

That looks like a big oops right now. 

It doesn’t change that Brady didn’t want to be in NE and made that clear. I still think they are fine with him gone. Brady in NE wouldn’t make that much difference this year given that their offense is struggling and their defense isn’t what it was last year. Brady wouldn’t have the turnovers, but they would still be mediocre on offense. We saw what they were at the end of the year with Edelman banged up. It would have been more of the same. 

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

It doesn’t change that Brady didn’t want to be in NE and made that clear. I still think they are fine with him gone. Brady in NE wouldn’t make that much difference this year given that their offense is struggling and their defense isn’t what it was last year. Brady wouldn’t have the turnovers, but they would still be mediocre on offense. We saw what they were at the end of the year with Edelman banged up. It would have been more of the same. 

Yes, but you blamed that poor offense on Brady and said Tampa wouldn’t work out for him. I mean we’re all wrong all the time, god knows I am, but you were pretty adamant on this. I guess more than anything I’m curious if you’ve come around on him for this year and next. 

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