Will Tom Brady throw for 5000 yards this season?

[Anarchy99 6,136]

Just now, Capella said:

Yes, but you blamed that poor offense on Brady and said Tampa wouldn’t work out for him. I mean we’re all wrong all the time, god knows I am, but you were pretty adamant on this. I guess more than anything I’m curious if you’ve come around on him for this year and next. 

I addressed this in the plant your flag thread. I thought TB the team would struggle the first 6-8 games (like they did the first few weeks). They clicked faster than I thought (and avoided getting TB the QB killed in the process). 

I also thought Josh McDaniels talk about how mad scientist he was going to be with Cam would give a boost to the offense (which it did the first few weeks). Then the COVID stuff caused NE to miss two weeks of practice and they so far have not recovered. Edelman being hurt isn’t helping. 

Certainly Brady is doing better than I initially expected, and if he had the numbers he has this year in any other season that might put him near the top of the QB food chain. But in this crazy year of no defense, he ranks 10th in QB rating, 18th in QBR, and 11th in passing yards per game. 

IIRC, I believe I said Brady would be smack dab middle of the road at QB (so like QB16). He’s currently 10th in terms of fantasy PPG. Still a lot of football to be played, but fantasy QB8-10 the rest of the way seems possible. 

[Capella 29,521]

17 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I addressed this in the plant your flag thread. I thought TB the team would struggle the first 6-8 games (like they did the first few weeks). They clicked faster than I thought (and avoided getting TB the QB killed in the process). 

I also thought Josh McDaniels talk about how mad scientist he was going to be with Cam would give a boost to the offense (which it did the first few weeks). Then the COVID stuff caused NE to miss two weeks of practice and they so far have not recovered. Edelman being hurt isn’t helping. 

Certainly Brady is doing better than I initially expected, and if he had the numbers he has this year in any other season that might put him near the top of the QB food chain. But in this crazy year of no defense, he ranks 10th in QB rating, 18th in QBR, and 11th in passing yards per game. 

IIRC, I believe I said Brady would be smack dab middle of the road at QB (so like QB16). He’s currently 10th in terms of fantasy PPG. Still a lot of football to be played, but fantasy QB8-10 the rest of the way seems possible. 

I didn’t know QBR even existed anymore. 
 

PFF has him as the third-best QB, a hair behind Rodgers and he leads the league in big-time throws which is how they measure significant passes. 
 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/grades/position/qb

 

[Ministry of Pain 5,383]

4.000+ yds and 40+TDs which if he throws 40...he did toss 50 once but he usually is somewhere between 28-35 consistently if you look at his entire career. 

I definitely can see the age on him creeping in but he still has the best football mind at QB in the NFL even if his body can't quite keep up now. 

I'll even juice this with a projection or proclamation...NFC East you must be kidding, North-We just crushed the Packers, West has good teams but nobody is a juggernaut, both Seattle and Arizona can be scored on all night long. I'm running out of teams that Brady and the Bucs cannot take down in the post season as long as crummy weather doesn't play a huge factor. 

Bucs in the NFCC for sure and Super Bowl could be in their future. '02 and '20

[Grahamburn 1,973]

"We?"

[Deamon 5,326]

13 hours ago, rockaction said:

Oh yeah, he was sold on Belichick's decision and that it was New England that wanted Brady gone.

That looks like a big oops right now. 

I'm not sure its a big oops.  With their weapons, I see Brady in NE as MAYBE a first round playoff exit at best.  Pats aren't really huge losers here in this whole deal.  Brady is a huge winner, and the Pats may be somewhat flush or maybe slight losers. Brady needed a new start, he was getting stale in NE and knew that and wanted out.

Sometimes a split doesn't have to have a winner and a loser.  Andy Reid leaving Philly for example worked out for both sides.  Some people need fresh starts to revive their careers and staying in the same situation would be bad for both parties.

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

5 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I definitely can see the age on him creeping in but he still has the best football mind at QB in the NFL even if his body can't quite keep up now.

This is just silly hyperbole. What basis is there to say that Brady's "football mind" is better than that of Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Roethlisberger, et al.? Answer: none.

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

9 hours ago, Ministry of Pain said:

I'll even juice this with a projection or proclamation...NFC East you must be kidding, North-We just crushed the Packers, West has good teams but nobody is a juggernaut, both Seattle and Arizona can be scored on all night long. I'm running out of teams that Brady and the Bucs cannot take down in the post season as long as crummy weather doesn't play a huge factor. 

Seattle has played a lot of games/snaps without Jamal Adams, one of the best defensive players in the league. He will be back. They have also played a lot without multiple other strong players in the secondary. So their defense should get better going forward... which could impact the notion that Seattle "can be scored on all night long".

IMO Seattle is the primary roadblock for Tampa, and today I would favor Seattle in a notional NFCCG matchup, assuming no major new health issues for either team the rest of the way.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Just Win Baby

[Capella 29,521]

48 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Seattle has played a lot of games/snaps with Jamal Adams, one of the best defensive players in the league. He will be back. They have also played a lot with multiple other strong players in the secondary. So their defense should get better going forward... which could impact the notion that Seattle "can be scored on all night long".

IMO Seattle is the primary roadblock for Tampa, and today I would favor Seattle in a notional NFCCG matchup, assuming no major new health issues for either team the rest of the way.

Fwiw, DVOA has Tampa #1 in the league, miles ahead of Seattle who is #9 and third in their own division. 
 

Tampa is substantially ahead of everybody actually. 

[Ghost Rider 6,203]

1 minute ago, Capella said:

Fwiw, DVOA has Tampa #1 in the league, miles ahead of Seattle who is #9 and third in their own division. 
 

Tampa is substantially ahead of everybody actually. 

Six teams have lost less games than the Bucs, yet they are substantially ahead of everybody?  Okay.  Stats are fun, and style points (see: DVOA) would matter a lot if this were college ball, but wins and losses are what matter the most in the NFL.  I think the Bucs will be one of the top NFC teams down the stretch, but it's premature to say they are substantially better than everyone else.

[Capella 29,521]

2 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

Six teams have lost less games than the Bucs, yet they are substantially ahead of everybody?  Okay.  Stats are fun, and style points (see: DVOA) would matter a lot if this were college ball, but wins and losses are what matter the most in the NFL.  I think the Bucs will be one of the top NFC teams down the stretch, but it's premature to say they are substantially better than everyone else.

I’m just posting what the website says. Take it up with them. They also have Tampa has a top-10 defense since 1990. 

[Ghost Rider 6,203]

Just now, Capella said:

I’m just posting what the website says. Take it up with them. They also have Tampa has a top-10 defense since 1990. 

Okay, but if we are going to start posting in the Shark Pool what any website says, that will open up a can of worms, no?  

[rockaction 23,055]

1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is just silly hyperbole. What basis is there to say that Brady's "football mind" is better than that of Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Roethlisberger, et al.? Answer: none.

Six rings versus one, one, one, two?

[Capella 29,521]

1 hour ago, Ghost Rider said:

Okay, but if we are going to start posting in the Shark Pool what any website says, that will open up a can of worms, no?  

Doesn’t seem any different than any other data point. DVOA is pretty well-respected around the league. Obviously it’s up to the individual to decide whether it has merit or not. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Capella

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

2 hours ago, rockaction said:

4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is just silly hyperbole. What basis is there to say that Brady's "football mind" is better than that of Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Roethlisberger, et al.? Answer: none.

Six rings versus one, one, one, two?

Right, because those rings were all due to Brady's "football mind"? That's what you are saying? No credit to the greatest football coach of all time? [Updates notebook.]

I know you're smarter than this, GB.

[Ministry of Pain 5,383]

4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

This is just silly hyperbole. What basis is there to say that Brady's "football mind" is better than that of Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Roethlisberger, et al.? Answer: none.

As someone else mentioned and it was one of the things I thought of...6 rings buddy and he's 43...believe me, lifelong Phinsfan, in general I detest the little (bleep) but it is what it is. 

[Ministry of Pain 5,383]

What teams are better than the TB Bucs in the NFC right now? It sure isn't the Saints or Panthers, nobody in the East or North, tell me which team is going to whip the Bucs in the West? I'm not saying they couldn't but who is going to have a legit chance to beat the Bucs if they can keep their offense together going into the playoffs? Meaning as long as Brady doesn't get hurt. 

37-34 showed no defense, 24-10 vs Chicago? Wasn't impressed

Edited October 28, 2020 by Ministry of Pain

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

2 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

As someone else mentioned and it was one of the things I thought of...6 rings buddy and he's 43...believe me, lifelong Phinsfan, in general I detest the little (bleep) but it is what it is. 

I stand by calling your comment silly. YMMV

[Ministry of Pain 5,383]

Just now, Just Win Baby said:

I stand by calling your comment silly. YMMV

Your not hurting my feelings, if you want to say Brady doesn't have a great NFL mind, a High Football IQ, you're welcome to it but I think you're projecting that word at this point. Not sure why you want to come at me over a simple little comment but it seems someone feels slighted, I've had probably 1,000 posts this season, maybe I'm over shooting, 500+ and you haven't bantered back and forth with me once that I can recall so to belittle a post with no backing tonight, seems a little odd or off. 

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

Tampa is 1-2 vs. teams with winning records and 4-0 against other teams.

Tampa is 1-1 vs. teams in the top 13 in points allowed and 4-1 against teams outside the top 13.

Tampa is 3-2 vs. teams in the top 13 in yards allowed and 2-0 against teams outside the top 13.

Tampa is 2-2 on the road and 3-0 at home.

 

They might turn out to be great, but it's a bit premature to say that now. Sample size is too small. 

[rockaction 23,055]

8 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Right, because those rings were all due to Brady's "football mind"? That's what you are saying? No credit to the greatest football coach of all time? [Updates notebook.]

I know you're smarter than this, GB.

As for the bolded, I'd say at least twice he was the beneficiary of other teams' head coaches and quarterbacks being twice as stupid or not as stubborn as he is. I think Brady audibles out of that awful Paul Richardson/Seattle call and he never, ever snaps the ball so early in the play clock like Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn did with the Falcons. By the third quarter of that game, my palooka brother was pointing out how early the Falcons were snapping the ball and seething about it. "Do they want New England to come back?"

So yeah, there's two instances when he was the beneficiary of other teams' quarterbacks not having the game wherewithal or stones to change the play than he did, at least.

Also, I get what you're saying, and yeah, I'm not making sweeping comments about how he's literally a better football mind and that the rings are proof, but where else do we find that proof in the pudding? Outside of the pudding? We're likely to never know. I'm betting on Brady, hands-down because of the evidentiary rings and that he ran a no-huddle for so darn long (at least ten years) that we can presume it.

 

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

2 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

Your not hurting my feelings, if you want to say Brady doesn't have a great NFL mind, a High Football IQ, you're welcome to it but I think you're projecting that word at this point. Not sure why you want to come at me over a simple little comment but it seems someone feels slighted, I've had probably 1,000 posts this season, maybe I'm over shooting, 500+ and you haven't bantered back and forth with me once that I can recall so to belittle a post with no backing tonight, seems a little odd or off. 

I didn't say Brady doesn't have a great NFL mind, so don't mischaracterize what I posted. So classic around here.

I also didn't "come at you" or "belittle" your post with "no backing". Reread what I posted.

I said that his "football mind" is not greater than many of his great contemporaries. It's not an objective thing. It's a subjective thing. If you can't see that, and can't see that Brady's success with the Patriots had to do with more than just his "football mind" (e.g., Belichick, ownership, etc.), then I don't know what to tell you.

[Just Win Baby 2,583]

Just now, rockaction said:

As for the bolded, I'd say at least twice he was the beneficiary of other teams' head coaches and quarterbacks being twice as stupid or not as stubborn as he is. I think Brady audibles out of that awful Paul Richardson/Seattle call and he never, ever snaps the ball so early in the play clock like Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn did with the Falcons. By the third quarter of that game, my palooka brother was pointing out how early the Falcons were snapping the ball and seething about it. "Do they want New England to come back?"

So yeah, there's two instances when he was the beneficiary of other teams' quarterbacks not having the game wherewithal or stones to change the play than he did, at least.

Also, I get what you're saying, and yeah, I'm not making sweeping comments about how he's literally a better football mind and that the rings are proof, but where else do we find that proof in the pudding? Outside of the pudding? We're likely to never know. I'm betting on Brady, hands-down because of the evidentiary rings and that he ran a no-huddle for so darn long (at least ten years) that we can presume it.

Good post. I'm not saying Brady's football mind isn't great, and he is inarguably the GOAT. Just a bit tired of the hyperbole attached to him. I don't think another QB, like, say, Brees, would have won as many Super Bowls as Brady did if they were swapped and Brees was in New England... but I also think there is zero chance that Brady would have come close to the same number of rings with Belichick. I get kind of tired of the Brady hype as if it was all him and there were no other contributing factors. (Not saying you have represented this, but many have/do.)

[Ministry of Pain 5,383]

8 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I didn't say Brady doesn't have a great NFL mind, so don't mischaracterize what I posted. So classic around here.

I also didn't "come at you" or "belittle" your post with "no backing". Reread what I posted.

I said that his "football mind" is not greater than many of his great contemporaries. It's not an objective thing. It's a subjective thing. If you can't see that, and can't see that Brady's success with the Patriots had to do with more than just his "football mind" (e.g., Belichick, ownership, etc.), then I don't know what to tell you.

This exchange we're having is a lot sillier, I'm done discussing what was an easy comment to understand. 

Cheers

[JPPT1974 3]

Would not be surprised but then again at age 43, would be as really can't tell ya.

[rockaction 23,055]

Just now, Just Win Baby said:

Good post. I'm not saying Brady's football mind isn't great, and he is inarguably the GOAT. Just a bit tired of the hyperbole attached to him. I don't think another QB, like, say, Brees, would have won as many Super Bowls as Brady did if they were swapped and Brees was in New England... but I also think there is zero chance that Brady would have come close to the same number of rings with Belichick. I get kind of tired of the Brady hype as if it was all him and there were no other contributing factors. (Not saying you have represented this, but many have/do.)

Thanks. We're in way more agreement than I think I'm letting on here. It's a very subjective judgment based on limited evidence, to be sure. The six rings thing comes from a really weird abstract place where I view rings the same way I view traditional wisdom and its critics. Sometimes you point to the ultimate working of a thing as evidence that the parts are working well. In other words, if a society is generally prosperous and happy, willy-nilly replacing the pieces that make it so are foolish because the society is generally prosperous and happy. One should always be skeptical of tradition, but realize its place in maintaining a good society. 

That's probably a little too political subforum for this, but it's really the same way I look at the rings. Limited evidence of the superiority of the pieces from which it was created.

[barackdhouse 2,038]

On pace for ~4350 yards. Drunken math done in my head. Think that's right. 

[barackdhouse 2,038]

I like GB to make good adjustments if they rematch. AZ is my 1 seed right now but Tampa is a solid 2. Not talking about how they'll finish just my power rank if you will.