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Actual Deaths From Covid-19 vs Reported Deaths (1 Viewer)

Do you believe the number of Americans dying from COVID-19 is more, less, or about the same as the r

  • Actually Are More Deaths Than Are Being Reported

    Votes: 107 66.9%
  • About The Same

    Votes: 22 13.8%
  • Actually Are Less Deaths Than Are Being Reported

    Votes: 31 19.4%

  • Total voters
    160

Joe Bryant

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I apologize for what may sound like a callous question but I read a news story today and thought it was important as it relates to this. I hope you know me well enough to know I'd never minimize any death from any cause. 

Please don't google first. Here is the question: "Do you believe the number of Americans dying from COVID-19 is more, less, or about the same as the reported number?"

 
Seems implausible that COVID deaths are being over counted. I'd be curious to hear someone make the case.

 
Not sure.  When States are counting presumptive COVID cases without a positive test result I have little faith that the numbers are accurate.  

 
Seems implausible that COVID deaths are being over counted. I'd be curious to hear someone make the case.
Agreed...if anything they are undercounted.  However, I'm not of the belief that deaths should be the focus to begin with.  They are certainly a tragedy and I am not attempting to minimize them in any fashion but given where we're at, it's my belief that it's going to be awhile before we get accurate numbers with respect to deaths.  For example, it's been discovered that in my state (Florida) some counties aren't counting people who died here if they weren't from here.  If you died in Orange county but were from North Carolina, you aren't counted as a death in Florida.  If there is not a standard by which all states are measured, there is room for over and under reporting and given our human nature and our desire to impress, I'm willing to bet the inaccuracies will almost always show in the under reporting side.

To answer your question though, that's how they COULD be over counted.  If two different states counted the same person because of gray areas created by the states.  I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.

Where I think a large number of "under reported" would come from is in states where this was likely here before we even knew it was a thing.  I am confident people died of this virus well before we knew it was here.  How many?  We'll never know.

 
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I think there are a lot of people who are recovering from covid that will have lasting issues that take years off their life, people are dying of kidney failures/heart failure and have covid, what do you count that as? Does it count for both categories? I think ultimately the death toll will be higher than the actual count, but I think those deaths and lost years because someone’s system is wrecked should count. 

 
Not just America ...I think worldwide is underreported.

There is too much incentive at every level for numbers to be low (here from Mayors to Governors and up...similar at levels in other countries)

 
Seems implausible that COVID deaths are being over counted. I'd be curious to hear someone make the case.
I'm seeing this posted/shared all over facebook that there are more deaths being attributed to COVID than there really should be 

 
Seems implausible that COVID deaths are being over counted. I'd be curious to hear someone make the case.
The arguement would be that, since many dying from COVID have other health issues, those other issues are what cause the death.

 
Really seems like the math here is fairly simple.  We have historical records of total deaths in a given region by month.  Compare the historical trend for March and April to March and April of 2020.  If anything, I suspect that undercounts the COVID-related deaths, as deaths from auto accidents would be down significantly during that time.

 
If I had to guess I’d say the actual number of cases is 10x and the actual number of deaths is 1.5-2x

 
I think the evidence is pretty overwhelming that the covid deaths are being under-reported.

I don't think its intentional, or nefarious, just a difficulty in tracking and testing.  But, actual deaths in march/april are much higher than normal - even when taking out reported covid deaths.  So, either there are more actual covid deaths (likely) or people are not getting the proper treatment for other issues as a result of healthcare resources devoted to covid cases.

 
The arguement would be that, since many dying from COVID have other health issues, those other issues are what cause the death.
Right. Basically anyone who dies with COVID symptoms is being counted as a COVID death. 

Seems most people on this board disagree with that. I think its quite possible its true.

 
I'm seeing this posted/shared all over facebook that there are more deaths being attributed to COVID than there really should be 
Sure. That's a mixture of uninformed speculation and purposeful disinformation.

Google "excess deaths covid" and read any of a number of excellent articles showing how the pandemic toll is being underrepresented by the official statistics.

 
FYI, The Atlantic's Ed Yong (who has been the single most indispensable reporter covering this pandemic) made a point in his most recent article that I've heard elsewhere: Comparing Covid deaths to deaths from seasonal flu is apples-to-oranges:

Deaths are hard to tally in general, and the process differs among diseases. The CDC estimates that flu kills 24,000 to 62,000 Americans every year, a number that seems superficially similar to the 58,000 COVID-19 deaths thus far. That comparison is misleading. COVID-19 deaths are counted based either on a positive diagnostic test for the coronavirus or on clinical judgment. Flu deaths are estimated through a model that looks at hospitalizations and death certificates, and accounts for the possibility that many deaths are due to flu but aren’t coded as such. If flu deaths were counted like COVID-19 deaths, the number would be substantially lower. This doesn’t mean we’re overestimating the flu. It does mean we are probably underestimating COVID-19.

 
FYI, The Atlantic's Ed Yong (who has been the single most indispensable reporter covering this pandemic) made a point in his most recent article that I've heard elsewhere: Comparing Covid deaths to deaths from seasonal flu is apples-to-oranges:
Exactly. In the case of the H1N1 pandemic, the posterior estimate of mortality from that pandemic was seven times higher than the number of deaths that were contemporaneously reported.

I am sure the multiplier will be nowhere as high for Covid-19, but it is definitely > 1.

 
This seems like the most probable situation to me too.  Mistakes both way roughly meet somewhere in the middle.
miscounting equally in both directions seems highly unlikely to me.  the mechanisms would be completely different.

 
I apologize for what may sound like a callous question but I read a news story today and thought it was important as it relates to this. I hope you know me well enough to know I'd never minimize any death from any cause. 

Please don't google first. Here is the question: "Do you believe the number of Americans dying from COVID-19 is more, less, or about the same as the reported number?"
True fatalities are undercounted in almost every country. (scroll about 1/3 down)

I've seen similar charts for US states, but couldn't find it quickly.

 
miscounting equally in both directions seems highly unlikely to me.  the mechanisms would be completely different.
Sure.  It certainly isn’t equal imo. But the middle still is roughly the most accurate number imo.  

 
I voted same.  Not cause I believe in any accuracy, rather I think there is miscounting on both sides
When you say "miscounting on both sides" - can you elaborate what you mean?

Who are the sides?  What/where are the counts?

The best estimates I have seen for covid deaths don't come from either side of the political spectrum - its a simple comparison to typical deaths in previous years.  Certainly there could be some minor variances year-to-year - but generally speaking the amount of deaths over an averaged normal are much higher than the covid death counts this year.

The difference over "normal" is the best estimate of deaths related to the covid pandemic.

 
Sinn Fein said:
When you say "miscounting on both sides" - can you elaborate what you mean?

Who are the sides?  What/where are the counts?

The best estimates I have seen for covid deaths don't come from either side of the political spectrum - its a simple comparison to typical deaths in previous years.  Certainly there could be some minor variances year-to-year - but generally speaking the amount of deaths over an averaged normal are much higher than the covid death counts this year.

The difference over "normal" is the best estimate of deaths related to the covid pandemic.
No.  I can't

Edited.

 
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Sinn Fein said:
When you say "miscounting on both sides" - can you elaborate what you mean?

Who are the sides?  What/where are the counts?

The best estimates I have seen for covid deaths don't come from either side of the political spectrum - its a simple comparison to typical deaths in previous years.  Certainly there could be some minor variances year-to-year - but generally speaking the amount of deaths over an averaged normal are much higher than the covid death counts this year.

The difference over "normal" is the best estimate of deaths related to the covid pandemic.


Well that's got to be very hard to quantify this year, right? There's been a huge fundamental change in how we live our lives from previous years. I would think that likely has affected our death rates.

 
No.  I will not.  If you cant figure what I meant out on your own I'm sorry.  You seem like a smart guy.  But I am so NOT getting into this game with you.
Wow. He asked a legit question and backed it up with evidence. Not sure why you would acted all persnickety. 

 
RedmondLonghorn said:
That is empirically not the way it actually works.
Again I’m not saying the number is exactly accurate.  Theres no way for any of us to know that, to many variables that aren’t accurate.  I’m just saying the with the unknowns on either side the reported is likely the most accurate number.  

 
Well that's got to be very hard to quantify this year, right? There's been a huge fundamental change in how we live our lives from previous years. I would think that likely has affected our death rates.
No.  Not really - at least from a big picture standpoint.

Big picture, you assume excess deaths over average are related to covid19 - as that has become the one major difference in previous years.  And really - we are looking at impact here - the excess deaths are a result of the impact of covid19.

Sort of like flu deaths - nobody actually documents and accounts for each individual flu death, instead, its a mathematical formula based on a number of factors in any given flu season.

 
Again I’m not saying the number is exactly accurate.  Theres no way for any of us to know that, to many variables that aren’t accurate.  I’m just saying the with the unknowns on either side the reported is likely the most accurate number.  
No. The best estimate is the difference between recent mortality and historical averages. And that difference, right now, is significantly larger than the official estimates of Covid-19 deaths. So even with lower deaths from traffic accidents, workplace injuries, and homicides, many more people are dying right now than the official Covid-19 death count suggests. 

 
No.  Not really - at least from a big picture standpoint.

Big picture, you assume excess deaths over average are related to covid19 - as that has become the one major difference in previous years.  And really - we are looking at impact here - the excess deaths are a result of the impact of covid19.

Sort of like flu deaths - nobody actually documents and accounts for each individual flu death, instead, its a mathematical formula based on a number of factors in any given flu season.
But there have to be more than that, right? For example - the last few years there have been 37k traffic deaths per year. Surely that is going to go down this year. Plus people are just staying home - not going out. How does that affect the death rate? 

Seems like there are a lot of variables.

 
But there have to be more than that, right? For example - the last few years there have been 37k traffic deaths per year. Surely that is going to go down this year. Plus people are just staying home - not going out. How does that affect the death rate? 

Seems like there are a lot of variables.
There are a lot of variables, which is why the excess deaths analysis is so useful.

As of a few weeks ago, per the CDC, when there were approximately 39,000 officially reported deaths due to Covid-19, there had been over 66,000 excess deaths over normal in the US since January 1st. So, something slightly less than double the official estimate.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

This is based on provisional data, so it isn't going to be 100% accurate. Typically, epidemiologists don't finalize their modeling for this stuff until 18-24 months after an event, because death reporting takes a while to be finalized nationally. So these estimates are likely to rise over time.

 
Sinn Fein said:
When you say "miscounting on both sides" - can you elaborate what you mean?

Who are the sides?  What/where are the counts?
I assume the "sides" are "over counting" and "under counting". 

 
No. The best estimate is the difference between recent mortality and historical averages. And that difference, right now, is significantly larger than the official estimates of Covid-19 deaths. So even with lower deaths from traffic accidents, workplace injuries, and homicides, many more people are dying right now than the official Covid-19 death count suggests. 
Not gonna get into a long projected argument here today about something none of us can be certain about, no matter how strongly we feel. The variables are just too broad and the data set is just not clear.  
But have a good day and stay safe.  

 
There are a lot of variables, which is why the excess deaths analysis is so useful.

As of a few weeks ago, per the CDC, when there were approximately 39,000 officially reported deaths due to Covid-19, there had been over 66,000 excess deaths over normal in the US since January 1st. So, something slightly less than double the official estimate.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

This is based on provisional data, so it isn't going to be 100% accurate. Typically, epidemiologists don't finalize their modeling for this stuff until 18-24 months after an event, because death reporting takes a while to be finalized nationally. So these estimates are likely to rise over time.
But to @whoknew's point, let's say that over that same period, there would have been (to pick a random number) 5K deaths from car accidents that didn't happen this year. So that 66K in extra deaths from coronavirus is really 71K, although maybe if the virus can be "credited" for saving those lives that should net out.

I have no idea how this works, just think it's interesting.

 
But to @whoknew's point, let's say that over that same period, there would have been (to pick a random number) 5K deaths from car accidents that didn't happen this year. So that 66K in extra deaths from coronavirus is really 71K, although maybe if the virus can be "credited" for saving those lives that should net out.

I have no idea how this works, just think it's interesting.
Sure, if anything the additional deaths are probably understated for that reason.

In a full retrospective review in the future lower incidence of things like traffic deaths can be modeled with reasonable accuracy. On the fly,. they can't.

 
Not gonna get into a long projected argument here today about something none of us can be certain about, no matter how strongly we feel. The variables are just too broad and the data set is just not clear.  
But have a good day and stay safe.  
This isn't about feelings, nor does it need to be about arguing.

You suggested that the most reasonable presumption is that the reported Covid-19 deaths are approximately accurate. I simply pointed out that view is factually incorrect.

 
This isn't about feelings, nor does it need to be about arguing.

You suggested that the most reasonable presumption is that the reported Covid-19 deaths are approximately accurate. I simply pointed out that view is factually incorrect.
Cool. We simply don’t agree. No problem. 

 

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