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Actual Deaths From Covid-19 vs Reported Deaths


Do you believe the number of Americans dying from COVID-19 is more, less, or about the same as the reported number?  

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Haven't been in this thread in a while...it's one of the more painful ones to read.  Well done!  That said, am I the only one here who feels this thread should really just be @jm192 informing us how things actually work in hospitals and how they come to the numbers and classifications.  I personally want to thank you for explaining to us how that stuff works.  It helps cut down on the nonsense and identify those who are peddling such nonsense.  It makes scrolling and reading that much easier moving forward, so :thanks:

Then there is also @Rich Conway 's question that has gone unanswered for weeks.  Is anyone from the "these are grossly exaggerated numbers and can't be trusted" crew going to attempt to explain the average difference that we see today?  It's fine to say "it's not because of COVID" for whatever conspiratorial reasons you want to lay out there.  The question remains "if not COVID then what?"

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It isn't opinion that far more Americans have died over normal than the Covid-19 tallies account for.  It isn't opinion that these excess deaths appeared at the same time as Covid-19. It isn

Denying reality is pretty much SOP for Trump. That so many other folks readily go along with it is something I have trouble wrapping my head around. But it is definitely a thing.

Really seems like the math here is fairly simple.  We have historical records of total deaths in a given region by month.  Compare the historical trend for March and April to March and April of 2020. 

I was leaning towards deaths being undercounted but didn't feel too strongly about it as I didn't see much data backing it up. With the recent news coming out of Georgia and Florida though, I now feel pretty confident in saying that the death toll is being underreported.

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2 minutes ago, Bucsfan5493 said:

I was leaning towards deaths being undercounted but didn't feel too strongly about it as I didn't see much data backing it up. With the recent news coming out of Georgia and Florida though, I now feel pretty confident in saying that the death toll is being underreported.

The worst part is that there's no legitimate reason to underreport deaths. Any fudging of data makes the person doing so look a lot worse than if we got the data by itself.

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4 hours ago, The Commish said:

The question remains "if not COVID then what?"

The disingenuous answer I expected to see but haven't yet is that "the media (boo! hiss!) scared people with other problems out of going to the hospital."

Which is silly but someone at FOX will think of it before long.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Hooligan said:

The disingenuous answer I expected to see but haven't yet is that "the media (boo! hiss!) scared people with other problems out of going to the hospital."

Which is silly but someone at FOX will think of it before long.

Maybe....problem there is that "gap" was there the whole time the leaders of this country were poo-pooing the severity of this thing.  We hadn't even gotten to the "1-2 million deaths could happen with no change in behavior" stage.  We were at the "it's only 15 cases and next week we'll be back to zero" stage.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Hooligan said:

The disingenuous answer I expected to see but haven't yet is that "the media (boo! hiss!) scared people with other problems out of going to the hospital."

Which is silly but someone at FOX will think of it before long.

Yeah, those STUPID Fox News people making such DUMB arguements!!!!!

A study in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology did find that nine major hospitals saw a 38% drop in emergency visits for a particular kind of heart attack in March. That suggests that people really are delaying or avoiding medical care, which could mean that some of them die of preventable causes. 

 

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1 hour ago, jon_mx said:

Yeah, those STUPID Fox News people making such DUMB arguements!!!!!

A study in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology did find that nine major hospitals saw a 38% drop in emergency visits for a particular kind of heart attack in March. That suggests that people really are delaying or avoiding medical care, which could mean that some of them die of preventable causes. 

 

Why are you calling Fox New people stupid?  :confused: 

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14 hours ago, jon_mx said:

Yeah, those STUPID Fox News people making such DUMB arguements!!!!!

A study in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology did find that nine major hospitals saw a 38% drop in emergency visits for a particular kind of heart attack in March. That suggests that people really are delaying or avoiding medical care, which could mean that some of them die of preventable causes. 

 

Literally from the article you linked, "However, data on excess deaths in the United States over the past several months suggest that COVID-19 deaths are probably being undercounted rather than overcounted."

Also, note the paragraph immediately following the section you mentioned:

"But non-COVID conditions probably don’t explain most excess deaths, Faust said. Only a portion of heart attack visits would have represented lives saved, he said, because doctors must treat perhaps 10 patients to save one life. And other causes of death—such as motor vehicle accidents—are down."

@jon_mx - I don't expect this from the myriad of #justaflubros here, but you're smart enough to know that the excess death numbers are correct here, and that COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted, if you take off the political lens for a few minutes and you're honest with yourself.

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52 minutes ago, Rich Conway said:

Literally from the article you linked, "However, data on excess deaths in the United States over the past several months suggest that COVID-19 deaths are probably being undercounted rather than overcounted."

Also, note the paragraph immediately following the section you mentioned:

"But non-COVID conditions probably don’t explain most excess deaths, Faust said. Only a portion of heart attack visits would have represented lives saved, he said, because doctors must treat perhaps 10 patients to save one life. And other causes of death—such as motor vehicle accidents—are down."

@jon_mx - I don't expect this from the myriad of #justaflubros here, but you're smart enough to know that the excess death numbers are correct here, and that COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted, if you take off the political lens for a few minutes and you're honest with yourself.

Not too mention I think it's difficult to extrapolate excess deaths because of non-visits especially when you consider 71% of emergency room visits are avoidable.  Maybe the down turn is just that...

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/study-71-of-ed-visits-unnecessary-avoidable.html

 

 

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3 hours ago, Rich Conway said:

Literally from the article you linked, "However, data on excess deaths in the United States over the past several months suggest that COVID-19 deaths are probably being undercounted rather than overcounted."

Also, note the paragraph immediately following the section you mentioned:

"But non-COVID conditions probably don’t explain most excess deaths, Faust said. Only a portion of heart attack visits would have represented lives saved, he said, because doctors must treat perhaps 10 patients to save one life. And other causes of death—such as motor vehicle accidents—are down."

@jon_mx - I don't expect this from the myriad of #justaflubros here, but you're smart enough to know that the excess death numbers are correct here, and that COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted, if you take off the political lens for a few minutes and you're honest with yourself.

I was just posting from a well balanced article which points out that there are real factors leading to undercounting and overcounting.   The article leaned towards undercounting, but it is far from conclusive.  The impact from people afraid to get treatment could be larger than thought.  I would suspect that multiple factors play a role in many or perhaps in most cases and that the virus sped up deaths.  If that happened, we will start to see the number of death dip below the expected death rates in the coming months.  

If you really want to take off the political goggles, you would see it is a more complex issue.  

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2 hours ago, killface said:

Not too mention I think it's difficult to extrapolate excess deaths because of non-visits especially when you consider 71% of emergency room visits are avoidable.  Maybe the down turn is just that...

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/study-71-of-ed-visits-unnecessary-avoidable.html

 

The particular numbers I pointed out concern heart attacks.  I seriously doubt those fall into the avoidable visits. 

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42 minutes ago, jon_mx said:

I was just posting from a well balanced article which points out that there are real factors leading to undercounting and overcounting.   The article leaned towards undercounting, but it is far from conclusive.  The impact from people afraid to get treatment could be larger than thought.  I would suspect that multiple factors play a role in many or perhaps in most cases and that the virus sped up deaths.  If that happened, we will start to see the number of death dip below the expected death rates in the coming months.  

If you really want to take off the political goggles, you would see it is a more complex issue.  

It was a pretty reasonable article, agreed.  There are many things about COVID that are complex.  The simple question of "is the current official tally of actual COVID-related deaths undercounted or overcounted" isn't complex.  Between the math of excess deaths and the historical knowledge that pandemics are virtually always revised upwards afterward, the answer really isn't debatable.  We can discuss how much it's undercounted, but make no mistake, the current official tally is undercounted, the end.

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Given the decline in some of the usual sources of death, I think excess deaths are also possibly under counting true COVID deaths.

i.e. 73,000 excess deaths YTD as of April 18th vs 53,000 known COVID deaths suggests we're under counting COVID by 20,000. 

But if all other sources of death are down, say, 3,000 due to immobility and other changes to society, COVID deaths would actually be 76,000 vs the reported total of 53,000.

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:lmao: an "expert" also predicted these deaths:

2001 - foot and mouth disease.  Predicted: 150,000.  Actual: 200

2002 - BSE/mad cow.  Predicted: 50,000.  Actual: 177

2005 - Bird Flu.  Predicted: 150 MILLION.  Actual: 282

2009 - Swine Flu.  Predicted: 65,000.  Actual: 457

COVID - 2.2 American deaths.  Actual: Probably about 20,000

 

 

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On 5/22/2020 at 9:32 AM, tjnc09 said:

NY sent at least 4,300 infected COVID patients back into nursing homes.  Sounds like a great way to have the worst fatality rate in the nation.

No one says you have to be smart to run a city.

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9 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

 

COVID - 2.2 American deaths.  Actual: Probably about 20,000

 

 

Do you think the virus is going to disappear tomorrow? And FYI, we have already surpassed by 5 fold "about 20,00"

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On 5/24/2020 at 6:09 PM, the moops said:

Do you think the virus is going to disappear tomorrow? And FYI, we have already surpassed by 5 fold "about 20,00"

~3 million Americans die every year.  It’s really quite easy to create an unverified list of 100k deaths when the criteria is “probable” COVID death with no actual positive test, gun shot wounds, drug overdoses, alcohol related deaths, head injuries, heart attacks etc etc etc

 

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45 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

~3 million Americans die every year.  It’s really quite easy to create an unverified list of 100k deaths when the criteria is “probable” COVID death with no actual positive test, gun shot wounds, drug overdoses, alcohol related deaths, head injuries, heart attacks etc etc etc

 

Conspiracy theory thread is down the hall

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On 5/24/2020 at 11:43 AM, tjnc09 said:

:lmao: an "expert" also predicted these deaths:

2001 - foot and mouth disease.  Predicted: 150,000.  Actual: 200

2002 - BSE/mad cow.  Predicted: 50,000.  Actual: 177

2005 - Bird Flu.  Predicted: 150 MILLION.  Actual: 282

2009 - Swine Flu.  Predicted: 65,000.  Actual: 457

COVID - 2.2 American deaths.  Actual: Probably about 20,000

 

 

I can't speak to any of the sources other than the COVID one.  It was a single prediction from a somewhat concerning source that didn't jibe with anything else being presented at the time.  Our leadership seemed to like this source though and decided to convey it to the nation without really giving the other multitude of projections a second glance.  That this prediction is even known in any meaningful way to us as citizens is shameful.  Should never have been given the oxygen it was given.

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59 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I can't speak to any of the sources other than the COVID one.  It was a single prediction from a somewhat concerning source that didn't jibe with anything else being presented at the time.  Our leadership seemed to like this source though and decided to convey it to the nation without really giving the other multitude of projections a second glance.  That this prediction is even known in any meaningful way to us as citizens is shameful.  Should never have been given the oxygen it was given.

It’s the same “expert” :mellow:   “Experts” are as big of a joke as everyone else.

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4 hours ago, the moops said:

Conspiracy theory thread is down the hall

No worries.  People scared of the flu can hide inside their home every year until their ultimate demise.  I would say that’s not a great way to live life, but the only people who are still scared are those enjoy staying inside on the Internet anyways.

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30 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

It’s the same “expert” :mellow:   “Experts” are as big of a joke as everyone else.

Not sure what you mean here.  I went to look to see if this source that keeps being touted for the 2 million weighed in on the others.  I don't see a forecast from them on the others.  Can you help me out?

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USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 29% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

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32 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Not sure what you mean here.  I went to look to see if this source that keeps being touted for the 2 million weighed in on the others.  I don't see a forecast from them on the others.  Can you help me out?

It’s Neil Ferguson - the expert epidemiologist who has never been right about anything. Despite his own predictions, COVID scared him so much that he encouraged a married woman to break quarantine so he could hook up with her.

When someone posts a link to a trash piece from NY Times about “experts”, it’s hilarious to me.

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3 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 27% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

Yes, most people believe it is real and an indication of how poorly we’ve done controlling it.

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13 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 29% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

you do realize the 100K could be correct but the 29%  could be incorrect right?

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3 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Yes, most people believe it is real and an indication of how poorly we’ve done controlling it.

The deaths are, sadly, way under counted. States are counting Covid deaths as other things such as pneumonia, and Florida is really bad... off by about 4,000 or more.

This thread and the posts within have better links to sift through.

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18 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 29% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

Its likely higher.

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34 minutes ago, tonydead said:

Well there’s a few reasons. First of all, they may have been a known positive before being shot. They also could do it to notify family that they may have been exposed. Also it may change how they treat the body to reduce exposure to those involved.

Your latest ‘gotcha’ suggests that 13% of the deaths there may not be true COVID deaths. If that were to remain consistent across the nation, we would be around 85k deaths, not really changing much as far as I’m concerned.

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18 minutes ago, Challenge Everything said:

The deaths are, sadly, way under counted. States are counting Covid deaths as other things such as pneumonia, and Florida is really bad... off by about 4,000 or more.

This thread and the posts within have better links to sift through.

The snowbird thing could be big too. If they’re not counted in Florida, are the getting counted in their home state? Considering many would fall into the high risk categories, that could be significant. Makes me wonder if Arizona is doing the same thing.

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On 5/20/2020 at 3:09 AM, killface said:

Not too mention I think it's difficult to extrapolate excess deaths because of non-visits especially when you consider 71% of emergency room visits are avoidable.  Maybe the down turn is just that...

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/study-71-of-ed-visits-unnecessary-avoidable.html

 

 

I think the bulk of the ER downturn is people who are avoiding covid, but probably had no business visiting the ER in the first place. I say this based on the conspicuous absence of ER "frequent flyers" at my hospital. That being said, a small percentage of people are avoiding needed care, including some of the heart attacks and strokes that are unaccounted for.

Although hospital admin won't like it, hopefully the pandemic helps curb ED utilization going forward.

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37 minutes ago, Biff84 said:

Well there’s a few reasons. First of all, they may have been a known positive before being shot. They also could do it to notify family that they may have been exposed. Also it may change how they treat the body to reduce exposure to those involved.

Your latest ‘gotcha’ suggests that 13% of the deaths there may not be true COVID deaths. If that were to remain consistent across the nation, we would be around 85k deaths, not really changing much as far as I’m concerned.

Also, trauma patients often cannot give a history to determine if they have signs/symptoms of covid. From an infection control standpoint, any unreliable historian should probably be tested.

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1 hour ago, The Commish said:

Not sure what you mean here. 

The point is to attack any information that conflicts with what dear leader is propagating. Science and data are just alternative facts

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

It’s Neil Ferguson - the expert epidemiologist who has never been right about anything. Despite his own predictions, COVID scared him so much that he encouraged a married woman to break quarantine so he could hook up with her.

When someone posts a link to a trash piece from NY Times about “experts”, it’s hilarious to me.

At this point i have no idea what's going on... think I'm done here... yikes

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 29% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

Oh man

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 29% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

You know I think you would have convinced me with 1 more rolling laughing emoji.  3 no, but 4 definitely.  

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22 minutes ago, Challenge Everything said:

I'm a two emoji, kind of guy, myself. Three changes everything. I have to dress different, act different, and grow a moustache.

I completely understand. 3 laughing emojis is a powerful statement and hard to resist, but I’m holding firm until I see 4. At that point I’ll be to weak to fight it.  

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3 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

USA has 4% of the world’s population and one of the most advanced healthcare systems, but 29% of the world’s “COVID” deaths.  How does any single person actually believe 100k is real? :lmao: :lmao::lmao:

I have to give you props on one hell of a fishing job here. You hooked more than a few. Well done.

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4 hours ago, Biff84 said:

Yes, most people believe it is real and an indication of how poorly we’ve done controlling it.

Makes sense.  The USA has done a worse job than the majority of developing countries that have the worst health care systems in the world.  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, tjnc09 said:

Makes sense.  The USA has done a worse job than the majority of developing countries that have the worst health care systems in the world.  

 

 

Or maybe it is possible that the developing countries don't actually have the ability to report the numbers accurately or don't want to? Oh and China is lying; that is a big factor in this. 

Spain, UK, Italy, France and Germany have a combined 134,000 deaths. Combined, their population is pretty close to that of the US 323M vs 328M. 

You think Europe is in on the conspiracy also?

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