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Top 28 Rookies 2020


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1 minute ago, Dr. BD said:

You're arguing without realizing you're arguing against yourself 

 I made my point stop stealing other peoples flawed arguments.  Which one is it then?  This class isn't talented or those classes weren't talented?  Basing it strictly on top 10 picks seems like a Dr Dan take so of course.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

And those guys are all superstars...  justifying they're high draft capital

Super stars dont come out every year. But when they do, teams realize it and will try to spend high draft capital on them. Of course, they arent 100% hit rates but top talent will go high no matter what. Draft capital is the best predictor we have... cant believe you're arguing against that... 

So only 5 superstars at RB and WR in the past 15 years, cuz they only get drafted in the top 10....GOT IT.  Do you understand how many franchises have went 10-20 years without taking a RB or WR in the top 10????...wait of course you don't.

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14 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Its entirely possible Shenault could be an extremely overqualified Jamison Crowder, with infinitely more RAC skills. Could also see him getting put in a Jordan Reed-like role as an isolation option on the interior. Both of which have been very useful, especially in PPR leagues.

I don't think its fair to assume that how Colorado used Shenault is A) The only way to use him, or B) The best way to use him. 

I'm probably an outlier, but I could very much argue Shenault over Aiyuk, Jefferson, and maybe even Reagor. 

He is nothing like Crowder.  Not even a little bit.

If you're looking for a Gruden related comp, Pierre Garcon isn't bonkers.  Shenault would have to develop a lot in his releases and route runninh to achieve that, but physically they are similar.

Crowder?  It the words of Chris Carter...Come on, man

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34 minutes ago, EBF said:

Over/under on any JAX coaching regime is what? 2-3 years?

If you like the player, I wouldn't let the current staff sway you too much.

I'd almost be relieved to see Shenault in a more limited role, as he took a lot of punishment on rushing attempts that he probably didn't need to be handling.

The flipside of the Jeudy/Ruggs/Waddle type of situation is where one guy is so far and away the best weapon his team that they actually over-utilize him.

Sure, Jay won't be there more than a couple years, but whats Shenaults value going to be after two years of being a dull Swiss army knife?  

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21 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Thats not what I said at all. In fact, I even clarified it for you further on that same post.

 

Forest for the trees Bingbing...

Not all superstars are top 10 picks, but many top 10 picks have superstar potential

Are you suggesting that we should not consider draft capital when evaluating talent? 

I just think that drawing the line at top 10 is silly, especially since most franchises have learned that you don't need to use high draft capital on RB's.  Ten years ago...heck...three years ago Jonathan Taylor may have been a top 10 pick.  If Gettleman didn't have Barkley he would have been capable of doing it once again.  I'm just saying I won't judge a draft class based on the top 10 because a lot of bad teams makes those moves and more often than not set those players up to fail.

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On 5/7/2020 at 2:44 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

I think we fantasy footballers convince ourselves that guys aren't very talented when they're not Saquon Barkley-like obviously talented.

It's like comparing Elle Macpherson to Anna Kendrick. Ones a Hall of Famer but the other will do just fine, thank you.

Not sure I would say Anna is a Hall of Famer...

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18 hours ago, EBF said:

Draft position correlates with success. The top two dynasty backs right now (Barkley and CMC) were top 10 picks.

A player picked in the top 10 has a higher chance at an elite/Pro Bowl/HoF type of career than a player picked in any other range of the draft. This isn't even a controversial point. It's backed up by decades of data. There's no room for debate or discussion here because it's statistical fact.

Feel free to show your evidence to back this statement up.

Here is an article looking at this using the top 10 cut off.

According to the authors calculations a top 10 RB is 18% more likely to have a 1000 yard rushing season and so on showing that a top 10 RB has better odds of producing than just a 1st round RB does.

For the WR there is barely any difference though.

@ZWK maybe you could add your thoughts on the probabilities of a top 10 pick compared to just a 1st round pick?

18 hours ago, EBF said:

Top 10 picks have the highest chances of developing into elite pros and a significant chunk of elite pros were top 10 picks.

I don't think this is true. There are too few top 10 picks to fill out top performers.

18 hours ago, EBF said:

The reason why we didn't see a RB go int the top 10 this year like Barkley and McCaffrey is not because nobody needs a RB, but rather because none of the RBs in this draft convinced teams they had that level of talent. That doesn't mean none of these guys can have elite pro careers, but to suggest that Edwards-Helaire and Taylor are on the same level as the likes of Peterson/McFadden/Richardson/Fournette/McCaffrey/Barkley as draft prospects is not backed up by any consensus in the scouting community or what NFL teams did during the actual draft.

Actually Johnathan Taylor is a superior prospect to Leonard Fournette is just about every measurable way you could think of, college production, combine ect. except for the draft position.

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Feel free to show your evidence to back this statement up.

I think I'll pass on that opportunity. I'm not interested in spending hours compiling data to prove something that everyone who studies rookie classes understands. Generically, higher NFL draft slot = higher odds of success. This does not mean that it will work out that way in every specific instance. We're talking about probabilities, not guarantees. It's like poker. AA is a better hand than 22. This does not mean that 22 will never beat AA. Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles had better careers than Darren McFadden, but on average you would say a top 10 RB is going to yield a higher expected value than a 3rd round RB. 

 

8 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Actually Johnathan Taylor is a superior prospect to Leonard Fournette is just about every measurable way you could think of, college production, combine ect. except for the draft position.

I had some concerns about Fournette even before he came into the league and he was not the top RB prospect in my 2017 rankings even though he was the first back picked. I think people saw stuff that wasn't really there with him, but that's beside the point. Whether or not he actually turned into an elite back, the league viewed him as an elite RB prospect. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong, but historically the prospects that they treat as elite talents yield better careers than those selected on day two, even if there are some Ronnie Browns and Trent Richardsons in there.

What makes FF different from poker is that we're not just flipping coins here. There are reasons why people like Fournette and Richardson underwhelmed and why later picks like Sproles and Charles outproduced their draft capital, so it's possible to stare into that void and maybe derive some valid conclusions that allow you to perform better than random chance. That's part of the appeal of FF for me. Still, we know from history that if all you do is sit there and use the NFL draft order as your guide, you're probably going to do better than someone who just constantly pays over the odds with day three sleepers. Draft position is one of the few objective variables with predictive value and there's no real need to debate that because any cursory look at results will show the same relationship.

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Thanks for doing this every year EBF. I really enjoy it. You seem to have a real knack at identifying breakouts at wide receiver in particular. JuJu, Deebo, A.J. Brown, and I think Brandon Marshall come to mind though I'm sure there are others.

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3 minutes ago, runner06 said:

Thanks for doing this every year EBF. I really enjoy it. You seem to have a real knack at identifying breakouts at wide receiver in particular. JuJu, Deebo, A.J. Brown, and I think Brandon Marshall come to mind though I'm sure there are others.

Thanks.

I'm not shy about tooting my own horn when I've earned it. JuJu, Deebo, AJ Brown, Allen Robinson, and Tyreek are players that I championed early.

I also can't take credit where I don't deserve it. I wasn't high on Marshall (though that was a LONG time ago now) and completely whiffed on Hopkins, Kupp, Godwin, and others.

I've had some notable false-positives like Kevin White, Chris Harper, DeAndre Smelter, etc.

Par for the course I guess. I just try to learn from past mistakes.

I think the key thing with the rookie draft is not only to have some subjective preferences about which players you like and which you want to avoid, but also to make sure that whatever pick you're spending on a player roughly matches up with the generic characteristics. For example, if you think Jalen Hurts is the best player in this draft (I don't, I'm just using a random example), that doesn't mean you need to spend the 1st pick on him. Take him a few spots higher than his ADP and if you're right, you got a steal. If you're wrong, you probably didn't hurt your team too much.

I'd say nailing the draft is less about having perfect overall rankings and more about identifying 1-2 guys in each ADP range who have solid odds of hitting. If your targets pan out then it doesn't really matter what happens with the players you avoided/ignored. I've been fortunate the past few years to have a lot of those guys break the right way for me (JuJu, Deebo, Andrews, Mahomes, Tyreek) whereas in years past I haven't always been so lucky (Smelter, M Dyer, K White, and others who flopped).

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37 minutes ago, EBF said:

I think I'll pass on that opportunity. I'm not interested in spending hours compiling data to prove something that everyone who studies rookie classes understands. Generically, higher NFL draft slot = higher odds of success. This does not mean that it will work out that way in every specific instance. We're talking about probabilities, not guarantees. It's like poker. AA is a better hand than 22. This does not mean that 22 will never beat AA. Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles had better careers than Darren McFadden, but on average you would say a top 10 RB is going to yield a higher expected value than a 3rd round RB. 

This isn't a new conversation for us. I was hoping you might have something interesting to add here.

I am also talking about probabilities and the point of discussion was how much better a top 10 pick is compared to a 11th to 32nd round selection at the same position.

We do know from looking at historical success that the higher the pick the higher chance of success that player has, however when we are comparing say pick 8 to pick 12 that difference exists but it isn't that big of a difference to say the guys picked at 8 are elite while the guys picked at 12 are not.

At least not in my opinion. So I think you are over stating the difference. 

I wasn't talking about players drafted after the 1st round, but yes obviously there have been many successful players who were not 1st round picks.

37 minutes ago, EBF said:

 

I had some concerns about Fournette even before he came into the league and he was not the top RB prospect in my 2017 rankings even though he was the first back picked. I think people saw stuff that wasn't really there with him, but that's beside the point. Whether or not he actually turned into an elite back, the league viewed him as an elite RB prospect. Sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong, but historically the prospects that they treat as elite talents yield better careers than those selected on day two, even if there are some Ronnie Browns and Trent Richardsons in there.

What makes FF different from poker is that we're not just flipping coins here. There are reasons why people like Fournette and Richardson underwhelmed and why later picks like Sproles and Charles outproduced their draft capital, so it's possible to stare into that void and maybe derive some valid conclusions that allow you to perform better than random chance. That's part of the appeal of FF for me. Still, we know from history that if all you do is sit there and use the NFL draft order as your guide, you're probably going to do better than someone who just constantly pays over the odds with day three sleepers. Draft position is one of the few objective variables with predictive value and there's no real need to debate that because any cursory look at results will show the same relationship.

Yeah I am always trying to learn more.

Your perspective about the overall talent of this draft class seems different to me than anyone else and so I have been trying to figure out why that is. Maybe I learn something I never thought of before.

I think the depth of this draft class is comparable to 2014 at WR. You did not have Watkins and Evans who were top 10 picks, but you still had 3 WR picked in the teens. I haven't looked at them both side by side closely enough to compare them, but I think 2020 is close or maybe better than 2014 for WR prospects.

I would say the 2020 RB are better than the 2014 RB class.

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23 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

@ZWK maybe you could add your thoughts on the probabilities of a top 10 pick compared to just a 1st round pick?

My generic rookie rankings try to do this. So does Chase's AV draft value chart, across positions.

In general I'd expect there to be pretty meaningful dropoff in talent between (say) pick 7 and pick 20, on average, regardless of position. If historical data over the past 20 years don't match that at some position, I'd guess that a large chunk of that is random variation and small sample sizes. Similar to how it's presumably just random chance that 6th round QBs have done better than 5th round QBs - I would not expect that apparent trend to continue over the next 20 draft classes.

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On ‎5‎/‎6‎/‎2020 at 8:13 PM, EBF said:

 

 

- These are intended as rankings for generic PPR leagues where QB/TE are relatively devalued. If those positions are stressed in your league, these rankings don't necessarily apply.

 

- I spent very little time evaluating QBs this year. QB is the position that takes the most time to evaluate. I think you need to watch 3-4 full games, and I'm simply not willing to put in that work anymore. I'm being upfront about it instead of pretending like I know these QBs really well. Where I rank them here is based on a combination of their generic traits, the small sample that I watched myself, and my sense from other scouting reports.
 

- Overall, I am relatively down on this draft class. I think most of these guys are not as talented as you would expect given their draft slots, but some of them will inevitably hit big.
 

FIRST TIER

 

1. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs - The first RB off the board is also the first name on my board. In a draft full of mysteries, this is one of the few guys who looks like a safe projection. He's a short, but powerful back with good agility and balance. The 4.6 40 time is a bit of an eyesore, but he broke plenty of long runs in college and his high marks in the vertical leap and broad jump suggest he has some fast-twitch explosiveness. The player comparison I would make is Mark Ingram. Both are compact, elusive backs with enough explosiveness. With Mahomes in town, stopping the run will be an afterthought for opposing defenses. I like CEH's chances of locking up the starting job and becoming a perennial top 10-15 RB in FF. He's not Barkley or Peterson in terms of talent, but he's solid and worthy of top 30 overall consideration in startup drafts. Nice synergy of talent and opportunity.  Darren Sproles comp in a great offense.  To me not worth the 1.1

 

2. RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts - He's the second coming of Ryan Mathews: a prodigious height/weight/speed/explosiveness athlete with just okay agility and cutting skills. He's not going to be LeSean McCoy or Darren Sproles in terms of cuts, but the combination of size and sheer straight-line speed is special. Marlon Mack has been better than I expected, but Taylor has a higher ceiling and should eventually be the main guy for the Colts. I expect multiple 1,000+ yard rushing seasons in his career. He's as close to a franchise back as you'll find in this draft. My #1 overall player and not really close.  I see Shaun Alexander.

 

SECOND TIER

 

3. WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys - His reputation is that he's explosive, but I would actually say play speed is his biggest weakness. He's not super fast off the line and has to earn yards through RAC and guile. His speed will not scare NFL DBs. There's a natural comparison to DeAndre Hopkins in terms of body type and play style, but it's important to note that Hopkins has about 15 pounds on Lamb despite being the same height or even a little shorter. Lamb has some 'tweener qualities. He's not blazing fast and he's not a truly big receiver. I'm not sure he's a #1 guy in the NFL. For what it's worth, Oklahoma's offense is also notorious for inflating WR production and yielding ovedrafted NFL busts. I think he carries more bust risk than the consensus would indicate. That being said, there is still plenty to like. Though not big, he has a strong lower body and is very agile in space. Very athletic. He can cut on a dime and creates problems for defenders with his quickness. You can envision him being successful as a high-volume possession WR working the middle of the field. If it works out, you are getting a Tyler Boyd or Keenan Allen type of performer. - Hopkins 2.0.  My favorite WR

 

4. RB JK Dobbins, Ravens - A nice synergy of situation and talent. Nobody will confuse Dobbins for LaDainian Tomlinson. He is a second tier talent without the special something of an elite pro back, but he's an efficient runner with solid versatility, size, power, quickness, and speed. I think what you're getting is basically another Austin Ekeler, and in a potentially high-scoring Baltimore offense, that could be very valuable. We know that RBs who catch passes are gold in PPR leagues, and Dobbins roughly fits that mold. The main risk stems from long-term JAG and RBBC possibility. Dobbins is good, but he's not great, and if the Ravens find themselves in position to draft a true franchise back in the next year or two, he could quickly become a niche weapon ala James White. I like him, but as much for the situation as the actual talent. For a long-term approach, look at a WR here instead. Faster Mark Ingram

 

5. WR Henry Ruggs, Raiders - He's an interesting one because his strengths/weaknesses profile is very clear. We all know he is fast. He has the most vertical explosiveness of any WR in this draft. Teams will constantly have to respect his speed and one mistake can become a 60 yard play. He's a much better pure WR than other track types like Marquise Goodwin and Ted Ginn were at this stage of their development. He has natural hands and is an okay (not great) route runner. The question marks relate to size and possession skills. He is not big and does not profile as a guy who could obviously handle 90 receptions without breaking down. He can be bullied and pushed off routes. His lack of plus size limits some of his ceiling in the possession game. Faster-than-quick. He has just average lateral quickness. So what are you really getting here? Some say he's a bust risk, but I think he has a high floor. His speed and athleticism will be good for 800-900 yards per season in bombs and big plays. The question is whether or not he can be more than just a deep threat. It may be scheme and situation dependent, but in a worst case scenario you are getting another Will Fuller. In a best case he could be Isaac Bruce. I shade more towards the low end of that range, but he's probably falling too far in rookie drafts considering he was the first WR selected and he has a compelling overall set of skills. He may be a high-floor/low-ceiling FF WR3, and not the boom-or-bust pick people make him out to be. Lazy to say Desean Jackson 2.0.  But his production in his prime will mirror Jackson in his.

 

6. WR Jerry Jeudy, Broncos - A truly odd prospect who evokes no immediate NFL comparison. He's very lean, with a thin lower body. His play style involves a lot of violent plants and cuts, using active legs and feet to create space. Jeudy is functionally quick as a route runner, but it doesn't always look pretty. He's not smooth in the way that other successful thin NFL receivers like AJ Green, Chad Johnson, and Reggie Wayne were. However, he has quality speed and was a prolific college player, holding down the #1 role in an Alabama offense that featured 3-4 future pro WRs. The Broncos liked him enough to spend a mid 1st on him, and he projects as an instant starter opposite Sutton. Working in a complementary role means Jeudy won't have to shoulder the sole burden of beating top corners. I wouldn't necessarily bet against him, but he has body type and play style red flags that make him difficult to project. Calvin Ridley meets Allen Robinson.  Nice player, but with targets being limited with the amount of weapons. Id rather have Jefferson.

 

7. WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings - On the lean side, but sneaky athletic, with some suddenness in his routes and movement that evoke memories of people like AJ Green and Reggie Wayne. On first blush I wasn't blown away by anything he does, but I liked him more as I watched more of him, and the draft slot suggests a strong evaluation by the league. His best football may be ahead of him and you can envision him slotting into a downfield passing game as a high-end 1B. AJ Green and Reggie Wayne are great comps for Jefferson. My #2 WR.

 

8. WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers - Big guys with RAC skills usually translate pretty well to the next level. Aiyuk's skill set, style, and role are very well-defined. He's a solidly-built possession WR who can handle a high volume of targets and create yards after the catch with his open field running ability. He's a B+ version of Michael Crabtree or Hakeem Nicks. Like those guys, he will probably be more of a "1B" type of option in the NFL instead of a dominant #1 who can carry a passing attack on his shoulders, but I like the overall skill set and think he's a high-floor prospect with a decent ceiling.  Larger early Randle Cobb.  Impressive in open field

 

9. WR Jalen Reagor, Eagles - When you look at the overall combination of speed, strength, explosiveness, RAC ability, and size, he's the most athletic WR in this draft. He reminds me more of Tyreek Hill than Henry Ruggs does, even though Ruggs is the one who draws most of the Hill comparisons from evaluators. Like Hill, Reagor is a shorter-than-ideal explosive weapon with deceptive strength and return man, catch-and-run, and deep threat skills. He'll be a useful weapon for Philly out of the box handling gadget plays and short throws, but his long-term FF ceiling will probably depend on whether or not he can become consistently effective as an outside WR. Right now he's spotty in that department. I view him as a boom-or-bust prospect with a high ceiling and a very wide range of potential outcomes. Not the choice if you are looking for a safe pick, but at some point the upside is too tantalizing to pass up. I think more TY Hilton Than Tyrke. 

 

10. RB D'Andre Swift, Lions - Swift offers a lot of positives, but there's something missing for me to consider him an elite franchise back. He has a compact frame with versatility, okay cutting skills, and enough speed. He's not a GREAT athlete, but he's a pretty good one. He can catch passes out of the backfield and was consistently productive in a tough conference. He's fully capable of thriving in spurts. I think he's going to have an Eddie Lacy type of career where he has stretches of high level productivity that fool people into thinking he's a top tier franchise back, but I don't think he's going to be a guy that we look back on 5-6 years from now as a smash hit. He wasn't a first round pick and he's not a first round talent. If you draft him, hope he breaks into the lineup quickly and consider selling high when his value spikes. If you need a RB, I do think you can take him higher than this (maybe in the 5-6 slot if he's still there). Kerryon is not a monster, but could be a big enough obstacle to slow down the immediate jackpot potential. Swift is my #2 RB on talent alone, but went to the worst situation. Swift reminds me of Devonte Freeman without the dreads.

 

11. QB Joe Burrow, Bengals - The book on him is that he's a smart QB with average physical tools, but good command of the offense and football IQ. I get a Matt Ryan vibe, meaning high-floor leader who may not have a top, top ceiling. The late-bloomer factor is a little frightening and he played with an elite supporting cast at LSU, but most view him as a future franchise QB and potentially a star at the NFL level. The sense I get is that he's more of an Eli/Ryan #1 than a Luck/Peyton #1, meaning quality starter but not necessarily a top 5 NFL QB. Totally agree, more Eli than Peyton.

 

12. QB Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins - A better pure athlete than Burrow, he has the speed and mobility to evade the rush and buy extra time. Injuries have been a problem, but he has a compact and solid body type. I watched the 2019 LSU game and he had active feet in the pocket and was moving through progressions when his first option was covered. Accuracy looks solid. His production was off the charts, though some of that may be attributed to his supporting cast. Evaluators seem to have Burrow as the clear #1 in this draft, but a part of me does wonder if a healthy Tua might have made it a compelling debate. He looks like a potential franchise QB with a high ceiling. Smaller Steve Young.  I know its lazy because they are both lefty.  But both are super athletic and both are precise throwers of the football


13. RB Cam Akers, Rams - I used to play in devy leagues that drafted HS players and Akers is one of the last high schoolers I ever scouted. He was a big-time recruit. I liked him back then, I liked him after his freshman season at FSU, and I'm still intrigued now. The first big positive is his overall athleticism. He has the physical look of an NFL player, with quality explosiveness and fluidity packed into a solid frame. His speed is above average and he can make nice east-west cuts. The problem is that his performance never lived up to what you would expect from someone with his athletic talent. He had a pedestrian YPC throughout his college career and was shockingly ineffective at creating big plays. Year after year they would feed him carries without much to show for it. His supporting cast and coaching were far from ideal and it may simply be that his low production is a byproduct of his bad environment, but even on a poor team with little help, you would expect a difference-maker to show up more in the box scores. The story of his college career is that he should've been much better than he really was. That's scary. It gives him a latent bust vibe. While he's a jack-of-all-trades with no glaring athletic weaknesses, it's also true that he's not dominant in any way. His speed is good, not elite. His moves are okay, but not great. He's solid, but not overwhelmingly powerful. The fear is that he's another Tre Mason, a compact and athletic back who simply isn't special enough in any way to really dominate at the next level. There's a Devonta Freeman type of upside if some coaching staff can figure out how to unlock the talent here, but the track record of Akers underwhelming is terrifying. Probably a bust, so proceed with caution, but the draft slot/situation/tools can't be completely ignored.   I Couldn't disagree more on bust factor. Thomas Jones of the Cardinals circa 2005. Every year someone was going to take his job, he lasted over a decade.

 

THIRD TIER

 

14. WR Michael Pittman, Colts - Tall with above average strength, Pittman has good quickness in his routes and gets out of breaks well for a big WR. He doesn't have the special qualities of a true #1 WR in the NFL. His RAC skills and downfield game are just average, but he can make a steady living as a reliable #2 target. In a friendly scheme there's the upside to have a TJ Houshmandzadeh type of impact, but this is not an elite talent with strong #1 potential. A safe pick and high floor guy who is unlikely to become a star.  Laquon Treadwell 2.0

 

15. WR Devin Duvernay, Ravens - Of the day two WRs, this is the guy whose tape really won me over. People talk about him like he's an undersized slot WR, but that's misguided. He's only 5'10", but he's rocked up at 200+ pounds, looking less like a jitterbug slot WR and more like a scaled-down version of Andre Johnson. His BMI is in the 28+ range, which is VJax/Dez/Fitzgerald territory. In other words, he is BIG. He ran 4.39 at the combine and 10.3 in the 100m in HS, so the height/weight/speed combo is freaky. Duvernay is a straight-line powerhouse. He will threaten people off the line and can make big plays downfield. On the downside, his route running is just average. I watched some of his Senior Bowl 1v1 reps and he struggled to consistently beat the corners there. You see flashes of good routes in his games, but he's not consistently dominant in this department. Texas utilized him heavily on screens, but he's more fast than elusive. His open field moves are nothing special. Overall though, he just looks like an NFL player and Harbaugh was so excited to draft him that he was literally fist-pumping while making the selection. The presence of weapons like Andrews, Dobbins, Brown, and Lamar on this Ravens team means Duvernay will be low on the list of defensive priorities. Baltimore can play to his strengths and use him as a chess piece to create mismatches. I'm intrigued, but he was a four year player at a major AAA program, went to the Senior Bowl, and still fell all the way to WR17 in this draft and the 92nd pick. What's more likely: That he's a hidden gem or that he's just not that good? The answer is probably in the middle. I don't think he's a top tier prospect or a can't-miss talent, but I'm going to be a huge buyer at his ADP and would recommend looking at him in the 15-20 range of your PPR rookie drafts. There's real upside here to be a contributing starter on a high-powered offense and to flirt with top 20-30 FF WR seasons.  Steve Smith Sr Carolina comp.

 

16. RB Antonio Gibson, Redskins - The upside play of the day two RBs. He has jaw-dropping tools on paper and the Redskins spent a high pick on him. He's a solid 220+ pounds with 4.3x speed. He's versatile and can catch passes. So what's not to like? Well, there is a very big difference between flashing talent on a handful of carries and actually being a full-time RB. The nightmare scenario is that Gibson is merely a stockier and faster Ty Montgomery, a 'tweener with intriguing athletic tools who doesn't actually have a pro position. I don't think he can play WR in the NFL. Like Montgomery, Gibson shows some tightness in his cuts and movement. He's tightly-wound and doesn't have true east-west cutting ability. That can be the kiss of death for RBs in the NFL because the demands of the position are very high. Rosier lenses are going to have dreams of the next Alvin Kamara, another college RBBC guy with versatile skills who went on to huge pro success. At times, some of what Gibson does reminds me of other plus-size, plus-speed, mediocre-cuts NFL backs like Mendenhall and Hunt. There's a scenario where he sticks. If you want to swing for the fences, there's a huge ceiling here, but my guess is that he ultimately won't make it as a featured back in the NFL. It's a big jump from flashing in college spot duty to being a consistently productive pro runner and the pure run skills may not be there.  Reminds me of Cordarrelle Patterson.

 

17. WR Chase Claypool, Steelers - Workout warrior type whose functional athleticism on the football field isn't as impressive as the raw numbers would suggest. He has an elite frame and excellent stopwatch speed. Actual play speed is good, but not great. He's not a bad athlete. He's just not a great one. He's not elusive, not a threat after the catch and runs mediocre routes. It feels lazy to compare him to another Notre Dame WR, but there are actually a lot of similarities between him and Miles Boykin. Both have Pro Bowl frames and workout numbers, but don't dominate on the football field in the way that you would expect. Claypool gets bonus points for being drafted a lot higher than Boykin was. Overall, he looks like a catch-and-fall #2 target who can potentially have some decent seasons as a second option. Extreme optimists may see parallels between him and Vincent Jackson, and he may have a little more upside than I've given him credit for here, but Jackson was a prolific return man at Northern Colorado while Claypool is not a creative player with the ball in his hands. David Boston Comp. 

 

18. WR KJ Hamler, Broncos - His appeal is that he's impossible to cover. His instant speed and quickness will be a nightmare for defenders all day. He can create yards on short throws or simply beat people downfield. His tape is electric. However, there are plenty of negatives to go along with the positives that he provides. He has a tiny frame and will never be well-suited to a high target volume. He has spotty hands. He goes to a team that presumably has two guys locked into the depth chart ahead of him (Sutton and Jeudy) and another (Fant) who should vulture a lot of looks. You get the sense that there won't be a big enough slice of the pie to make Hamler relevant. He's a niche player in the mold of John Brown or Titus Young. The absolute ceiling is DeSean Jackson. How much are you willing to pay for a guy whose best case scenario is probably being an FF WR2-3?  Tavon Austin Comp.

 

FOURTH TIER

 

19. WR Denzel Mims, Jets - Tall, but not bulky. Fast, but not quick. Mims presents an unusual set of traits. People will characterize him as a "big" WR because he's 6'3", but he's light for his height. A strider who doesn't have elite quickness or route ability. What I like about him is his feisty competitiveness at the catch point. He has good contested catch skills and more possession game than you would expect from a WR with a 25.9 BMI. He's a funky collection of disparate parts, but there's an outside chance of a Michael Gallup or even Marques Colston type of outcome where he becomes a productive system player. Shorter Plaxico Burress

 

20. QB Justin Herbert, Chargers - Herbert is athletically in the same mold as Carson Wentz, with a tall frame, good mobility, and noticeable arm strength. He's a four year college player with a wealth of starting experience. He's considered more of an enigma than Burrow or Tagovailoa, but his overall statistical production at Oregon was not bad. However, from the game I watched (2019 vs. Auburn) much of his production was manufactured via simple play calls, and he looked a little more panicky when forced to improvise. Lots of QBs have the physical ability to thrive in the NFL. It is typically the mental aspects that separates the successes from the failures, and that's where Herbert is most suspect. The overall vibe I get from Herbert is of a player with plus tools and questionable intangibles, who has a high ceiling, but also a much lower floor than the QBs selected ahead of him. Think Jake Plummer with the Cardinals

 

21. RB Zack Moss, Bills - Compact build, carrying a lot of bulk on a 5'9" frame. Not a plodder and has okay feet and adjustment ability behind the line of scrimmage. When he gets into his stride, he runs a bit tight and doesn't have natural open-field cutting skills. A little more explosive than his modest 40 time would indicate, he showed some big play flair in college, but is still just average in this department. A useful part of a rotation at the next level, but doesn't have obvious starter-level talent. With Singletary already in the fold, it's hard to envision him as an immediate home run, and the overall ability level may not justify extended patience. 2019 Marshawn Lynch Comp.  Slow, but powerful.

 

22. WR Laviska Shenault, Jaguars - Very bulky for his height. He's a few cheeseburgers away from being a TE. Speed and mobility are just average. His ability to consistently win on the edge with routes and speed is suspect. He looks more comfortable working the middle of the field. Unique guy. He's a big target who can move a bit, but may be too much of a 'tweener to hold down a relevant full-time WR role. I'd feel more comfortable if he had a more conventional set of skills, but it's hard to say exactly what he is, and purely as a WR his mobility may not be enough. I did not like him as much as most scouting report like him. I lean towards him busting, but there's a high ceiling if I'm wrong. I see Anquan Boldin in his game.

 

23. QB Jordan Love, Packers - The book on him is that he's a raw, but athletic QB who needs extensive work on decision-making, reads, and consistency. He should get at least a year to develop in GB before he's thrown to the wolves, which is nice. People compare him to Kaepernick. Seems like a decent pick if you need a high-upside backup QB for your dynasty team, but don't assume he will pan out. Patrick Mahomes starter kit. Love the arm talent, but does he have Ryan Leaf head?

 

24. WR Tee Higgins, Bengals - I don't really see it happening for Higgins, a stringy WR who lacks the precise route technique and athleticism needed to thrive in the NFL with his body type. He has the same body as AJ Green without any of the route running or fluid athleticism that make Green special. I think he's the Zay Jones of this class, an overdrafted wispy WR who lacks the right athletic parts to thrive against pro corners. Marquise Colston Comp. 

 

25. RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers - He's not bad, but I think ultimately he's just a body in the NFL. There are so many guys like this that his value is tied to the immediate opportunity and any future draft or free agency period will represent a big threat to his value. If you're in desperate need of RB2 production right away then maybe you can steal a good season or two here, but I'm betting against him being an enduring starter. The Zac Stacy regen. - 100% agree on Zac Stacy opportunity starter.  When Brady is gone, so will Vaughn

 

26. WR Van Jefferson, Rams - Like the other Jefferson, appears to be a jack-of-all trades with a modest ceiling and no glaring weaknesses. Probably just a complementary target in the NFL. The most compelling thing about him is the combination of the late 2nd round draft slot and the friendly situation with the Rams, who have made some less-than-perfect WRs look very good. Over-aged without a huge upside. Geronimo Allison Comparable.  Not sure he is better than the #3 they have now Josh Reynolds

 

27. TE Devin Asiasi, Patriots - Everything he does is smooth. He runs nice routes and is a threat after the catch. Not a truly explosive athlete and doesn't have the special traits of a top tier Pro Bowl NFL TE, so the FF ceiling may be modest. Speed is good, but not elite. Not a jump ball monster in the red zone. There's a high floor and he can become a 700-800 yard TE in the NFL, but this isn't a guy who's going to win your league for you. Consider him much higher than this in TE-premium. In standard formats, look at him in the 20-30 range if you need long-term TE depth. One of the safer picks in this tier, but not a guy who is likely to carry you. Another Mercedes Lewis ......JAG..

 

28. RB AJ Dillon, Packers - Once again, it feels lazy to compare a player to another prospect from the same school, but he really is the second coming of Andre Williams (Boston College/NY Giants). Hulking frame with nice north-south burst, but a very heavy and deliberate running style. Not an elusive or sudden player. He will get tattooed frequently in the NFL. This type of back is a bit of a dinosaur in today's league, so the most likely scenario is RBBC duty and fading into obscurity. - More Brandon Jacobs than Derrick Henry

 

OTHERS:

QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles - I didn't really evaluate him. Nothing to add beyond the generic draft slot.

RB Darrynton Evans, Titans - Too small. Gadget player.

RB Joshua Kelley, Chargers - JAG-y to me, like Paul Perkins all over again.

RB Anthony McFarland, Steelers - He shows flashes and could have spurts of value. Long-term, you'd bet against him ever being the guy. Alex Collins-like.

WR Lynn Bowden, Raiders - It's really tough to make the jump from "slash" player to full-time WR and I think the odds are against him.

WR Bryan Edwards, Raiders - Labors in his routes and may struggle to create space at the next level. I wasn't wowed by him.

WR Quintez Cephus, Lions - Ugly 40 time, but competitive possession WR who could fight for snaps. Relatively good value for day 3.

WR Joe Reed, Chargers - Athletic traits are intriguing. 6' 220 and he can move in space. Probably just a return man in the NFL though. Limited WR production.

WR Quez Watkins, Eagles - Has some decent athletic qualities, but probably not worth a roster spot unless your league is ultra deep.

TE Cole Kmet, Bears - I was not impressed and will be fading him at his ADP.

TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos - Doesn't play up to his 40 speed, but a unit with upside. Good value and worthy of a stash.

 

Love the analysis.  We differ a bit, but I loved the read.  My comps in bold...

Edited by Sgt. Ryan
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20 hours ago, ZWK said:

My generic rookie rankings try to do this. So does Chase's AV draft value chart, across positions.

In general I'd expect there to be pretty meaningful dropoff in talent between (say) pick 7 and pick 20, on average, regardless of position. If historical data over the past 20 years don't match that at some position, I'd guess that a large chunk of that is random variation and small sample sizes. Similar to how it's presumably just random chance that 6th round QBs have done better than 5th round QBs - I would not expect that apparent trend to continue over the next 20 draft classes.

You linked the trade value chart both times.

What is the projected career VBD difference between a WR at pick 8 compared to pick 12?

Is this difference enough that one could say the WR selected at pick 8 is a elite prospect based on draft position while a WR selected at pick 12 is not?

I know there is an expected advantage, I just want to know how much?

From another post I can see pick 7 is projected to provide 232 VBD while pick 11 is worth 212 VBD so 20 VBD is significant. I am not sure it is a difference that would cause me to proclaim the top 10 WR as elite while the WR selected in the teens are not.

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

You linked the trade value chart both times.

What is the projected career VBD difference between a WR at pick 8 compared to pick 12?

Is this difference enough that one could say the WR selected at pick 8 is a elite prospect based on draft position while a WR selected at pick 12 is not?

I know there is an expected advantage, I just want to know how much?

From another post I can see pick 7 is projected to provide 232 VBD while pick 11 is worth 212 VBD so 20 VBD is significant. I am not sure it is a difference that would cause me to proclaim the top 10 WR as elite while the WR selected in the teens are not.

Oops, generic rookie rankings link should go here. My generic estimate for a WR at pick 8 vs. 12 is 227 VBD vs. 208 VBD. So the later guy is worth 92% as much as the earlier guy. By Chase's draft value chart, pick 12 is worth 88% as much as pick 8.

Generic VBD says that this class is strong on the whole but weak at the top. The total sum of the generic VBD for the top 200 picks in the NFL draft is the second largest since 2014, and is 111% of the 2014-19 average. The sum of the top 4 players by estimated generic VBD is the second smallest since 2014, and is just 80% of the 2014-19 average. It's strong on the whole mainly because of the large number of WR+RB drafted in the first 3 rounds. It's weak at the top mainly because of the lack of RBs through most of the first round, as RBs drafted early have the highest generic VBD.

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On 5/6/2020 at 9:13 PM, EBF said:

 

- Overall, I am relatively down on this draft class. I think most of these guys are not as talented as you would expect given their draft slots, but some of them will inevitably hit big.

 

First I want to say thank you for posting this.  It is a lot of work and anytime you put out your own personal rankings you put your self up for criticism for those who don't view things the same on certain players.

Only thing I wanted to say is interesting this line here how you are down on a class which has been hailed for the past year plus as being one of the best upcoming classes in recent memory some saying with the RB's comparable to the 2017 class with a mix of the WR's comparable to the 2014 class.

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Just now, Dez said:

First I want to say thank you for posting this.  It is a lot of work and anytime you put out your own personal rankings you put your self up for criticism for those who don't view things the same on certain players.

Only thing I wanted to say is interesting this line here how you are down on a class which has been hailed for the past year plus as being one of the best upcoming classes in recent memory some saying with the RB's comparable to the 2017 class with a mix of the WR's comparable to the 2014 class.

I said it previously, but what it really lacks is headliner talent.

I'm actually going through right now and studying more all-22 footage of the WRs. Quite a few of these guys are solid. I like Lamb, Jefferson, Ruggs, Reagor, Aiyuk. Will they all hit? No, but I see talent and potential with all of them. Similarly, the next tiers have some decent prospects. I think Pittman, Duvernay, Shenault, and even Mims have a chance to be 1,000 yard NFL WRs. The QB class is solid. The TE class, while lacking headliners, has some guys who could be decent. I'm not high on the RB class, but there are 2-3 plug-and-play starters for next year.

I would not deny that it's a deep draft. I just got Hamler with the 31st pick in a PPR rookie draft. Warts aside, the fact that you can get a high day 2 WR prospect so deep into a rookie draft for a WR-heavy FF league just shows that there are a lot of live bodies in the pool this year. Someone is going to fall to you in the 20-30 range, and it's probably going to be a better prospect than what you'll usually find there.

I still don't see can't-miss elite startup talent though. When guys like Crabtree, Blackmon, Dez, Demaryius, and K White (woops) were in the draft, I would've paid a premium to get them. I don't see that guy this year. I would rate any WR in this class below where I had those aforementioned names in previous years. Can some of them step up and have a great career like Keenan Allen or Michael Thomas? Sure, but there's nobody I want to trade up into the 1.03 spot to grab and the guys in 1.01-1.02 aren't any better than the typical value you're looking at there.

So, my take is...light at the top...lots of depth. Good year to contemplate trading down if you don't already have the 1.01 or 1.02. Good year to grab extra 2nd-3rd round picks. Bad year to be sitting at 1.03-1.05, hoping to find a difference-maker talent.

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17 hours ago, EBF said:

So, my take is...light at the top...lots of depth. Good year to contemplate trading down if you don't already have the 1.01 or 1.02. Good year to grab extra 2nd-3rd round picks. Bad year to be sitting at 1.03-1.05, hoping to find a difference-maker talent.

In terms of the wow factor, I think we primarily lost out on that when Etienne decided to stay in school.  My take on the draft is that there is a very deep pool of Tier 2 talent that would be 3-5 players in a normal year.  In this draft it stretches to 8 or 10 if you squint your eyes and look sideways.

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Small update:

I was on the clock at 1.10 in a league tonight where Ruggs and Aiyuk were clearly the top RB/WR prospects remaining. My board says I should have taken Ruggs, but on the clock I had some difficulty pulling the trigger. I like a lot of what he does. He's athletic, has elite vertical speed, and good hands. His frame is a little slight, but what bothers me is some separation issues on 1v1 routes where he lacks suddenness. A good example is this play here. He's not a plodder or a sluggish player, but he has a little bit of that Kevin White pigeon-toed thing where he looks very fluid, but is actually a lot more comfortable running vertically than cutting or breaking. The very thing that makes some players fast (the long stride) can be liability in terms of shiftiness and lateral movement.

I ended up surprising myself and taking Aiyuk. Maybe I simply flubbed this and will look back on this 3-4 years from now as a clear mistake, but if I'm going to put these rankings out there then I want to make sure they accurately reflect my thinking. Of all the various aspects that go into WR play (size, speed, hands, etc), probably the #1 trait that I look for is elasticity and suddenness in movement and routes. The ability to generate separation in tight windows can be critical for NFL WRs and this is an area where Aiyuk is very promising. He's an elite-level open field runner for a WR and can win on short throws against tight 1v1 coverage. That bodes well for his potential to be a high-volume reception machine in PPR formats.

So, to summarize a few recent changes:

- Shenault up from 22nd overall to 14th overall, slightly ahead of Pittman and Duvernay.

- Ruggs down from 5th to 8th or 9th. I still like him at his 10-12 ADP, but mid-first feels too high.

I'm still having a tough time with that crowded group of first round WRs and will be doing more work there soon to see if I can find some further differentiation. I have the 1.05 pick in an upcoming draft and I really need to land a decent player there, so I'll be going through that group again closely. I find it to be a very challenging group because everybody is good, but nobody is perfect.

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Interesting. I tried to trade down from 1.06 to the late first to take Ruggs because mid-first felt too high, too. Ultimately, it's too fine a feat to do that and potentially miss out on the player, so I would up taking him at six, but I kind of know what you're saying.

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The class is deep, but I think only at WR. But it's SO deep at WR, it makes the whole class deep.  

Quote

Over the past five seasons, 28 receivers finished inside the Top 10 in PPR positional scoring. Eliminating Edelman, because he was a QB in college:

26 of 27 players were at least 5-10

22 of 27 players were at least 190-pounds

26 of 27 players had a College Dominator Rating of at least 30-percent

25 of 27 players had a Breakout Age of 20 years old or younger

24 of 27 players averaged 13 or more YPR in college

23 of 27 players had an Athleticism Score of 95 or higher

18 of 27 came from a Power 5 Conference school

You only need to look at last year's rookie picks, to see how many WR fell short of these thresholds. Highly drafted rookies.

If I am in a position to get Taylor/CEH/Dobbins I will, but beyond that, I am pounding WR this year. 

Bryan Edwards, as a late 2nd. Gandy-Golden/Tyler Johnson as late 3rds. Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins as afterthoughts. Davis and Hodgins both have nice analytic profiles, young established QB, and only one WR in front of them that is long term competition for targets.  Guys like Quintez Cephus, Hightower, Coulter and on to undrafted guys like Callaway.  All these guys hit a lot of the thresholds above. 

There are a LOT of WR in this draft worth taking a long look at. RB gets light quick, then gets empty quick. 

Considering that we can count on the vast majority not working out, I'd rather have multiple of these WRs later in the draft, than take an Eno Benjamin or Jake Fromm. 

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7 hours ago, massraider said:

The class is deep, but I think only at WR. But it's SO deep at WR, it makes the whole class deep.  

You only need to look at last year's rookie picks, to see how many WR fell short of these thresholds. Highly drafted rookies.

If I am in a position to get Taylor/CEH/Dobbins I will, but beyond that, I am pounding WR this year. 

Bryan Edwards, as a late 2nd. Gandy-Golden/Tyler Johnson as late 3rds. Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins as afterthoughts. Davis and Hodgins both have nice analytic profiles, young established QB, and only one WR in front of them that is long term competition for targets.  Guys like Quintez Cephus, Hightower, Coulter and on to undrafted guys like Callaway.  All these guys hit a lot of the thresholds above. 

There are a LOT of WR in this draft worth taking a long look at. RB gets light quick, then gets empty quick. 

Considering that we can count on the vast majority not working out, I'd rather have multiple of these WRs later in the draft, than take an Eno Benjamin or Jake Fromm. 

Agree it's super deep but I don't have any WR in this draft rated higher than I had Courtland Sutton when he was coming out. Still I think you are correct it's the deepest draft at WR I can ever remember and last year was an amazing class itself. 

Having said that a RB2>WR2 and it's not close. Even in a start 3 WR format. The WR market is flooded (20-30 deep)and the RB landscape is barren after the first 10 or so. I see a scenario where teams spread the ball around so much we really don't have much of a difference between WR2-WR3-WR4 in the future. Most teams are starting to stack 2-3 good WR on their team and the ball is getting spread around. 

It's all about the RB again imo.......oh and having an elite TE is a huge advantage. TE depth is very hard to come by too. 

If I have a slightly lower grade on a RB then a WR I'm drafting the RB. 

 

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After the top two, this RB class looks like a huge bag of "meh" to me. Based on the ADP I'm seeing in my leagues, Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Vaughn, Moss, Gibson, and Dillon are going above WRs who are probably superior talents in a vacuum. I'm fading basically all those guys at their ADP in favor of loading up on Aiyuk, Shenault, etc. Even if you think RB > WR in general, the player still has to be a certain quality to justify the gap. You wouldn't want to pass on Larry Fitzgerald for Kevin or Julius Jones just because they play a position that you deem more valuable. Been there. Done that. Not worth it. To me, the talent has to be in the same tier.

For example, Aiyuk was the 25th pick in the draft, but always goes behind CEH (32nd), Swift (35th), Taylor (42st), Akers (52nd), and Dobbins (55th) in my drafts.

Who's really the value here? I would say Aiyuk in the 10-14 range is a much more appealing proposition than Swift or Akers in the top 5-7. That feels like need-based drafting. If you smash it out of the park and find the next LeVeon, Rice, McCoy, Gore, or Charles then you're going to love that selection, but it usually doesn't break that cleanly for those fringe prospects and you're going to end up with a lot of Kenny Irons, Bishop Sankey, and David Montgomery when you could've had a quality first round WR talent.

If everyone is reaching for RBs above their level then the play is not to follow the crowd, but actually to scoop up all the QB/WR/TE talent that's being ignored. 

Due to some trades, I had 5 picks in the 11-36 range of a recent rookie draft and ended up with exactly 0 RBs from those choices. If you can't get one of the top 2-3 guys, I don't think there's good ROI at RB. The play might be to look into the veteran pool instead of grabbing a marginal rookie because he has a day 1 starting opportunity.

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What EBF said.  

I'll overload at WR, and trade for RB, if I have to.  Looking at my previous dynasty drafts, it's a constant, every year, teams reaching for backs, and stripping any depth they have, with nothing to show for their entire draft a year later. 

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Appreciate the write up and forthcoming approach EBF!

We all have "our guys" in rookie drafts, and end up with them in multiple leagues. I agree this is a draft to load up on WRs early an often.

I've done 8 rookie drafts so far and have three starting today. Not a single QB taken so far. A couple late fliers at TE  (Asiasi and Trautman). My favorite later RB has been Kelley, so a few shares. I'll edit the post for my WRs after this weekend's drafts

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22 minutes ago, EBF said:

After the top two, this RB class looks like a huge bag of "meh" to me. Based on the ADP I'm seeing in my leagues, Dobbins, Swift, Akers, Vaughn, Moss, Gibson, and Dillon are going above WRs who are probably superior talents in a vacuum. I'm fading basically all those guys at their ADP in favor of loading up on Aiyuk, Shenault, etc. Even if you think RB > WR in general, the player still has to be a certain quality to justify the gap. You wouldn't want to pass on Larry Fitzgerald for Kevin or Julius Jones just because they play a position that you deem more valuable. Been there. Done that. Not worth it. To me, the talent has to be in the same tier.

For example, Aiyuk was the 25th pick in the draft, but always goes behind CEH (32nd), Swift (35th), Taylor (42st), Akers (52nd), and Dobbins (55th) in my drafts.

Who's really the value here? I would say Aiyuk in the 10-14 range is a much more appealing proposition than Swift or Akers in the top 5-7. That feels like need-based drafting. If you smash it out of the park and find the next LeVeon, Rice, McCoy, Gore, or Charles then you're going to love that selection, but it usually doesn't break that cleanly for those fringe prospects and you're going to end up with a lot of Kenny Irons, Bishop Sankey, and David Montgomery when you could've had a quality first round WR talent.

If everyone is reaching for RBs above their level then the play is not to follow the crowd, but actually to scoop up all the QB/WR/TE talent that's being ignored. 

Due to some trades, I had 5 picks in the 11-36 range of a recent rookie draft and ended up with exactly 0 RBs from those choices. If you can't get one of the top 2-3 guys, I don't think there's good ROI at RB. The play might be to look into the veteran pool instead of grabbing a marginal rookie because he has a day 1 starting opportunity.

I don't neccesarily disagree. Just feel if it's close you have to take the RB that might be an RB1-2. 

 

I like several backs in that ADP range. I'm not passing Julio Jones level prospect here. Tons of 1st round WR have flopped lately. Kevin White/Corey Coleman come to mind. 

 

Def not saying you take a RB when you have a WR graded much higher but positional value does come into play here given the current WR/RB landscapes. 

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47 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Aiyuk seems like a weird line in the sand to draw. He might be good, but it's not obvious.

That applies to every prospect in this draft?

Love me some Aiyuk though. One of the players who I liked right away when I saw him, and who has grown on me throughout the process.

"Big-with-RAC-skills" is a species of WR prospect that tends to translate well (i.e. Crabtree, Blackmon, Nicks, JuJu, Deebo, AJ Brown) and he's cut from a similar cloth. The instant juice after the catch is Crabtree-like and you don't often find 28+ BMI WRs who have this type of mobility with the ball in their hands. Feel like he could be the Michael Thomas/JuJu/A-Rob/Adams/Deebo of this draft as a 8-12 ADP guy who presents a quality skill set with few major weaknesses.

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7 minutes ago, EBF said:

That applies to every prospect in this draft?

Love me some Aiyuk though. One of the players who I liked right away when I saw him, and who has grown on me throughout the process.

"Big-with-RAC-skills" is a species of WR prospect that tends to translate well (i.e. Crabtree, Blackmon, Nicks, JuJu, Deebo, AJ Brown) and he's cut from a similar cloth. The instant juice after the catch is Crabtree-like and you don't often find 28+ BMI WRs who have this type of mobility with the ball in their hands. Feel like he could be the Michael Thomas/JuJu/A-Rob/Adams/Deebo of this draft as a 8-12 ADP guy who presents a quality skill set with few major weaknesses.

Yeah he's another Deebo but he's on a team that already has a Deebo. I like him too but he landed bad. You're not concerned with that? Where's his targets coming from? Seems like a frustrating WR to own that will go off here and there but you can't figure out when. 

 

Seemed weird to me SF drafted him. Almost like they want to have this rotation at WR where they are all interchangeable and you never know where the ball is going.....

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6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah he's another Deebo but he's on a team that already has a Deebo. I like him too but he landed bad. You're not concerned with that? Where's his targets coming from? Seems like a frustrating WR to own that will go off here and there but you can't figure out when. 

Not an issue for me at his ADP. If you whittle your list down to all the perfect prospects who have a perfect situation, your list will have 0 names on it.

Draft players you like at prices that make sense and let that stuff take care of itself.

Look at the AJ Brown discussion from last year's rankings:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/775843-top-29-rookies-2019/

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5 minutes ago, EBF said:

Not an issue for me at his ADP. If you whittle your list down to all the perfect prospects who have a perfect situation, your list will have 0 names on it.

Draft players you like at prices that make sense and let that stuff take care of itself.

Look at the AJ Brown discussion from last year's rankings:

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/775843-top-29-rookies-2019/

Yeah EBF respect all the work you put into this. Glad to see you posting more. I'm not saying perfect landing spot. It just looks like a bad spot to me. I do like the player. 

What's his ADP? Like 2.03 or something. I'd def draft him at a certain point just don't like the overlap with him and Deebo. 

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23 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Ruggs was drafted before all of them. If we are going to go based off draft capital isnt he the best value out there?

Sure, but if all we are doing here is drafting based on NFL draft position then there's no need to make rankings at all.

What I do is a mixture of weighing my subjective opinion with the objective variables.

I'm not saying you need to take Aiyuk ahead of Akers/Swift/Dobbins etc, but the fact that he was a higher pick is something that should give you pause if you're sitting on the clock at 1.06 dialing up that Akers or Swift pick. Moreover, the fact that his rookie ADP is significantly lower alters the debate from "Is he more valuable than those guys?" to "Is he more valuable than those guys, factoring in what it takes to acquire them?" Because if the talent/value are similar and he's cheaper to obtain, he starts to look like the more appealing property.

Part of this discussion though is what causes players to become high picks vs. what qualities make someone valuable in FF? We know that Tua and Burrow were top 10 picks in part because we know the NFL puts a premium on the QB position, something that differs drastically from most FF leagues. So even though we know these guys have a lofty NFL draft slot, we're comfortable taking them behind Dobbins, Swift, Taylor, Reagor, etc in our FF drafts because we think their NFL draft value is not a perfect mirror of their FF value.

The argument for taking guys like Akers and Swift high is that they have more valuable FF roles than people like Aiyuk and Pittman, even though they were lower draft picks. I get that. I just don't entirely agree. That's also part of why the community has Ruggs lower than his WR1 status would dictate. There's an understanding in the community that the NFL puts an inflated value on deep threat capabilities, and that prospects of this ilk tend to be overdrafted by the NFL relative to their FF value (i.e. Marquise Goodwin, Phillip Dorsett, Troy Williamson, Tavon Austin, Ted Ginn, DHB, John Ross, Will Fuller, etc).

This is how you can look at Ruggs and say, "Yes, he was the first WR drafted, but no he is not the most valuable FF prospect". You're arguing that his particular species of WR doesn't offer the same return as someone like Lamb or Aiyuk. Is that fair? I don't know. I like Ruggs more than I liked most of those other "deep threat" types and I think he offers solid value at his rookie ADP. At the same time, if I feel like the projection of what Aiyuk will be is a better fit with what tends to create top FF value, then that's how I can say "draft position is important, but here's why you should override it in this case" without being a total hypocrite.

Edited by EBF
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I'm def taking Dillion over Aiyuk at 2.03. I see Aiyuk as a depreciating asset as soon as you draft him and Dillion's value seems like it will go up as the season goes on knowing he'll be the 1st/2nd/GL back for GB next year. 

I can come back and get Aiyuk next offseason at a 50% discount if I like what I see. Dillion will be tough to trade for when Jones is gone. 

Edited by Milkman
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7 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I can come back and get Aiyuk next offseason at a 50% discount if I like what I see. Dillion will be tough to trade for when Jones is gone. 

Heard this before re: AJB and JuJu.

If he's good, you may not get a better buy window than now. Early 2nd is already a low entry price for a WR prospect of this caliber. If you don't believe in the player then that's your call, but if you're waiting around for a lower price then you're probably being a bit too thrifty.

If he hits the highest part of his range then he could be an impact rookie and once these guys flash they become very hard to acquire (see: Metcalf, JuJu, M Thomas). Your call ultimately, but I'm buying all day at his ADP over here. He is not particularly expensive.

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11 minutes ago, EBF said:

Heard this before re: AJB and JuJu.

If he's good, you may not get a better buy window than now. Early 2nd is already a low entry price for a WR prospect of this caliber. If you don't believe in the player then that's your call, but if you're waiting around for a lower price then you're probably being a bit too thrifty.

If he hits the highest part of his range then he could be an impact rookie and once these guys flash they become very hard to acquire (see: Metcalf, JuJu, M Thomas). Your call ultimately, but I'm buying all day at his ADP over here. He is not particularly expensive.

Yeah I don't disagree with your logic. I just feel different about his production this year. Good talk bro! Keep doing your thing!

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I guess I've lost the narrative here and don't understand what you're saying.

Are you advocating a) taking Aiyuk in the 5-7 range because he's better than the 2nd tier RBs and people shouldn't draft on need or b) he's just a really good deal at his ADP?

I like him at his ADP and think his "true" value might be top 6-7 in this class, but you probably don't need to take him that high.

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I lean toward agreeing with EBF about this class overall being a bit of a disappointment. I think for me  what contributes to that thought is: 1) the expectations for this class were very high going back to even two years ago 2) there are a ton of “solid” prospects meshed together presenting a deep pool, however most are missing ingredients that you want to see at the top tier.

“Elite/generational” are overused descriptions. However even the top guys in this class are missing enough from their prospect profile to give me the feeling that they will have a hard time reaching that upper tier status. It would not surprise me if in a couple years we look back and say a Shenault/Aiyuk/Pittman-type guy ends up being the top long term asset. I think the difference between top picks and almost through the second round is thinner than I can ever remember. This makes this class very difficult to rank for me. 

Bottomline is I love the depth and think there will be many solid players from this group. I don’t love the top tier though and think the real value is at the end of the first through the second as I really don’t see enough of a difference between top 15-18 guys as I would like.

Edited by King of the Jungle
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37 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Bottomline is I love the depth and think there will be many solid players from this group. I don’t love the top tier though and think the real value is at the end of the first through the second as I really don’t see enough of a difference between top 15-18 guys as I would like.

For me there's a break right at 11/12.

I'm comfortable with Ruggs and Pittman at the end of the first. They both have historical analytics they are battling for fantasy relevance, but then again, it's the end of the 1st. And the trends they are battling aren't insurmountable.  Physically, there are no questions. 

Right after that, I am not thrilled. Tua/Burrow/Aiyuk/Higgins/Mims/Shenault.  Meh. They are all better than average 2nd rounders, but 2.02 and 2.8 and 2.12 are all pretty close as far as I am concerned. Great year to own the 2nd round. And there are players worth taking all the way through the 4th round.  

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4 hours ago, massraider said:

For me there's a break right at 11/12.

I'm comfortable with Ruggs and Pittman at the end of the first. They both have historical analytics they are battling for fantasy relevance, but then again, it's the end of the 1st. And the trends they are battling aren't insurmountable.  Physically, there are no questions. 

Right after that, I am not thrilled. Tua/Burrow/Aiyuk/Higgins/Mims/Shenault.  Meh. They are all better than average 2nd rounders, but 2.02 and 2.8 and 2.12 are all pretty close as far as I am concerned. Great year to own the 2nd round. And there are players worth taking all the way through the 4th round.  

Don’t get me wrong, I have tiers as well. I just think the talent is closer throughout this draft compared to others. It actually wouldn’t surprise me if someone from the Aiyuk/Higgins/Mims/Shenault tier ended up being the top liner of the class long term as I think each of them offer their own unique top end qualities. 100% agree with you about the second round, great value there this year.

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5 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I lean toward agreeing with EBF about this class overall being a bit of a disappointment. I think for me  what contributes to that thought is: 1) the expectations for this class were very high going back to even two years ago 2) there are a ton of “solid” prospects meshed together presenting a deep pool, however most are missing ingredients that you want to see at the top tier.

“Elite/generational” are overused descriptions. However even the top guys in this class are missing enough from their prospect profile to give me the feeling that they will have a hard time reaching that upper tier status. It would not surprise me if in a couple years we look back and say a Shenault/Aiyuk/Pittman-type guy ends up being the top long term asset. I think the difference between top picks and almost through the second round is thinner than I can ever remember. This makes this class very difficult to rank for me. 

Bottomline is I love the depth and think there will be many solid players from this group. I don’t love the top tier though and think the real value is at the end of the first through the second as I really don’t see enough of a difference between top 15-18 guys as I would like.

Agreed. They way I ranked them this year was to look at their path to targets/usage. Are they the 3rd option at best on their team this year or do they have a path to starting and being the teams #1/#2 option. The guys that landed in bad spots will have their value depreciate almost immediately and it will continue to drop as the year goes on. If I like what I see on the limited usage i do get to see and their opportunity is going to grow in the near future I will trade for them later. 

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I agree with the general sentiment of the depth this year. I didn’t stock up on 2nd round picks this year but that’s what basically seemed to happen to me in terms of the value that fell to me in the 3rd and 4th in one FFPC draft earlier this month. 
 

  • 1.12 Michael Pittman WR IND
  • 3.1 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA
  • 3.12 Shenault WR JAX
  • 4.1 Herbert QB SD
  • 4.11 Eno Benjamin RB AZ
  • 4.12 Claypool WR PIT
  • 5.1 Trautman TE NO

I'm glad I had lots of darts to throw in the 3rd/4th rounds and, honestly, if just 1 WR and 1 QB hit, I’ll be more than satisfied (especially with the shallow rosters on FFPC)

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Agreed. They way I ranked them this year was to look at their path to targets/usage. Are they the 3rd option at best on their team this year or do they have a path to starting and being the teams #1/#2 option. The guys that landed in bad spots will have their value depreciate almost immediately and it will continue to drop as the year goes on. If I like what I see on the limited usage i do get to see and their opportunity is going to grow in the near future I will trade for them later. 

This is a problem I have with Shenault. There are guys there, WRs that have all shown something. I'm not saying Cole and Westbrook are world beaters, but they have produced a bit. This isn't like Mims in NY. Add in an injury history, Shenault (supposedly) being a raw route runner, questions at QB, overall disaster of the organization, and I would need this guy to fallllllll for me to get stoked. And at that point, I would hope someone might trade for him. 

There is a scenario where he's just so magic with the ball, the team makes it a point to get him involved. RPO, screen game, etc. I could see some big games from him over the course of a season. But I have a lot of problems with his game and situation.  

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