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Official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Iota

Mjolnirs

By Mjolnirs,
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SoBeDad

SoBeDad 2,243

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3 hours ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

11 am update shows the more western track.

Still going to go out and buy a couple 5 gallon fuel tanks today. Good to have when something stronger comes along. I tend to pick up 1-2 additional items every season. 

11am National Hurricane Center

Likely just a 1-2 day rain event. Yes, preparation for possible storm later in the year. For many people who live near the coast, will their friends and families want them to join in a closed environment for up to 24 hours?

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Henry Ford

I don’t post much here anymore, but we are alive, our home is standing, we still have power, and our neighbors are safe.     Going to go assist the Cajun Navy through the weekend. There are goi

worrierking

You would think that any normal person who just survived a Category 4 Hurricane in the midst of the worst global pandemic of the last 100 years would feel somewhat invincible right now (especially sin

worrierking

Power came back on last night.  In Rita in 2005, I was one of the last to get power on day 19 after the storm.  This time, for Laura, I am one of the first to get power back on at day 12.

PIK95

PIK95 3,073

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3 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Likely just a 1-2 day rain event. Yes, preparation for possible storm later in the year. For many people who live near the coast, will their friends and families want them to join in a closed environment for up to 24 hours?

I heard the last Euro model had it strengthen and go east coast?

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Senor Schmutzig

Senor Schmutzig 460

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Can definitely see the elongated, oval shape of this before it picks a lane later today/tomorrow.

Storm formerly knows as Invest 92L but most likely changing to TS Isiahseshaeasa

These graphics never get old to me. Just a cool view from the top. I feel like a space guy in the ISS...

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Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain 5,392

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Native Floridian, have been thru Andrew in Miami, several others more recently that have skirted or brushed with the Florida Coast, Mathew sat 50 miles out from Jupiter a couple years back before skirting up the Coast and there is a pattern to many of these storms. 

The ones I fear the most are usually the ones that somehow form in the Gulf or the Lower Caribbean and come up from the South and just cut thru the State of Florida...the one out there right now as an example is likely just a Tropical Storm which can still devastate an area for a short period of time, but most of the Atlantic Storms have a lot of ample time to be prepared. 

I am very concerned that a Cat 3-4-5 Storm with days to prepare and news scaring everyone 24-7 leading up to it that supplies which usually are low, but with CV19 already keeping inventory low on many items, it could get very ugly for South Florida and all of Florida if a big storm were to actually plow through the State. We took a big hit from the one a couple years back that hit the Keys and then came on shore around Naples I believe, it was a Cat 5 for a while and then weakened a bit. 

I just went outside to run 3 miles and it was 88 with a breeze, that's not terrible for this time of year in Florida, makes me think we are not going to sustain a really big hit and here is why I say that...when it is so HOT and HUMID here but we can't get rain to cool things off and that is a reflection of very hot water temperatures, right now I can't say that we are truly suffering. We just had a huge dose of rain over Florida over the last week or two, some humongous storms, in fact I had our power knocked out on Friday last weekend with a crack of lightning about 10:00pm and knocked out power to 250 residents, darndest thing the building across from ours was still up and going. 

Doesn't feel like the right time for a big storm from a weather predictor however things can change and it's only July, let's talk in a couple weeks. That storm out there might be a bigger problem for the Gulf Coast once it shifts past Florida, the tracking model has already moved further West since yesterday. 

Cheers!

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kodycutter

kodycutter 858

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18 hours ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

11 am update shows the more western track.

Still going to go out and buy a couple 5 gallon fuel tanks today. Good to have when something stronger comes along. I tend to pick up 1-2 additional items every season. 

11am National Hurricane Center

5am ticks East, can use same link above as NHC updates it. 

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Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs 1,014

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The good news is that these early models often shift east on these type storms.  By Saturday the projections will hopefully all be offshore.

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kodycutter

kodycutter 858

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11am NHC guidance indicates that details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain due to Isaias's interaction with Hispaniola (mountainous area).    TS or Hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida later today.

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JaxBill

JaxBill 6,736

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@JackSillin: Lots of complex interactions still to sort out regarding the future of #Isaias but the range of possible outcomes has narrowed significantly. 

This afternoon's blog post digs deep into the question marks that still remain: https://blog.weather.us/tropical-storm-isaias-likely-to-threaten-the-east-coast-as-a-hurricane-this-weekend/

#TSIsaias #FLwx #NCwx #MAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1288962587007365120/photo/1

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PIK95

PIK95 3,073

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2 hours ago, JaxBill said:

@JackSillin: Lots of complex interactions still to sort out regarding the future of #Isaias but the range of possible outcomes has narrowed significantly. 

This afternoon's blog post digs deep into the question marks that still remain: https://blog.weather.us/tropical-storm-isaias-likely-to-threaten-the-east-coast-as-a-hurricane-this-weekend/

#TSIsaias #FLwx #NCwx #MAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1288962587007365120/photo/1

Yeah, that track suxors beach balls from where I'm sitting in Rhody.  2020...

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Osaurus

Osaurus 8,938

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It’s starting to get some dry air penetration  so hopefully it weakens more. 
 

ETA: The Weather Channel calling this thing CovidCane 2020 is absurd. :crazy:

Edited by Osaurus
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Senor Schmutzig

Senor Schmutzig 460

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49 minutes ago, JShare87 said:

In Southeast Florida wondering if I should put my shutters up for this one. 

Port St. Lucie? Keep me posted how things are up there later in the day. Should get some wind and rain. Heading up to Melbourne on Monday as long as things aren’t washed out. 

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SoBeDad

SoBeDad 2,243

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A stiff breeze in Miami Beach, ~25 mph, and last night's high tide about a foot above normal. Nobody is putting up shutters, given the latest news that the storm shrunk a little and should stay well easy of Dade and Broward.

Great visual from a data scientist, Olivier Lacan, of the view of Isaias from satellite images:

https://mobile.twitter.com/olivierlacan/status/1289447550194315264?cxt=HHwWgMCjneLthOUjAAAA

 

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Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs 1,014

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Looking like a warm up for the rest of the season. First "watch" of the season went up yesterday, and first "warning" went up this morning.

I'll spend some time this afternoon putting away items from the yard and lashing down the furniture on the deck.  Outside of that, not a lot of storm prepping going on.  Although, I did see a notice on FB that our city was making sandbags available.  I'm sure newbies to the area will be on a heightened alert, but no "gotta get the milk and bread" mentality from the locals.

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Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs 1,014

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Most Models keeping it offshore here as it passes by.  That's a good thing for us.

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kodycutter

kodycutter 858

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Looks quiet this week, thankfully.   However...2020 forecast - extremely active - 24 named storms.    Stay prepared.

 

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. To date, the season is about two weeks ahead of record pace and it's only one third of the way through. On Wednesday, the news became more concerning as the research team at Colorado State University (CSU) — the standard bearer for seasonal forecasts — released the most dire forecast in their 37-year history.

Labeling the 2020 hurricane season "extremely active," the team is now predicting 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes — each figure about double that of a normal season. If the forecast proves accurate, 2020 would be the second most active Atlantic hurricane season, behind only the record-shattering 2005 season which brought Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma

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Doug B

Doug B 6,580

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7 minutes ago, Mjolnirs said:

Josephine

That particular track makes it look like it will curve away from land and weaken below even depression-strength in short order. Could maybe be a rainmaker somewhere on the East Coast if it gets pushes westward, I suppose.

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Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs 1,014

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3 hours ago, kodycutter said:

Invest 98 has turned into TD #13.  

The ones that come in low like this worry me.  Since the models generally tend to shift right as time progresses, when they start this low, that right shift usually leads to an east coast hit.

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kodycutter

kodycutter 858

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52 minutes ago, Mjolnirs said:

The ones that come in low like this worry me.  Since the models generally tend to shift right as time progresses, when they start this low, that right shift usually leads to an east coast hit.

Yup.   Models have been odd this season.  Euro model is still showing nothing.   

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culdeus

culdeus 7,254

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2 minutes ago, kodycutter said:

Yup.   Models have been odd this season.  Euro model is still showing nothing.   

Levi got into this a little bit, the reasons are (obviously) complex.  With the demise of Cat6 I pretty much just watch his videos to get a sense of what will ultimately happen.   

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bcat01

bcat01 276

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4 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Levi got into this a little bit, the reasons are (obviously) complex.  With the demise of Cat6 I pretty much just watch his videos to get a sense of what will ultimately happen.   

What happened to Cat6?  I noticed there are no posts since June.

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Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs 1,014

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1 hour ago, kodycutter said:

Looking like a real possibilty that we will have two hurricanes in the gulf at the same time.  

This would be a first

Wish we could just teleport these to the California fires.   

 

I expect nothing less from 2020.

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Nathan R. Jessep

Nathan R. Jessep 5,686

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4 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Hey Louisiana, is it better to be on the East side of a storm or the West side of a storm?

Louisiana: "Hold My Beer."

The 2 storms are basically forecasted to give us a big hug. IJS

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culdeus

culdeus 7,254

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9 hours ago, JaxBill said:

So I'm thinking today might be a good day to top off your gas tank. Figuring oil companies will use these storms as an excuse to ratchet up prices over weekend.

You actually drive places?  

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