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Official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Iota


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I don’t post much here anymore, but we are alive, our home is standing, we still have power, and our neighbors are safe.     Going to go assist the Cajun Navy through the weekend. There are goi

You would think that any normal person who just survived a Category 4 Hurricane in the midst of the worst global pandemic of the last 100 years would feel somewhat invincible right now (especially sin

Power came back on last night.  In Rita in 2005, I was one of the last to get power on day 19 after the storm.  This time, for Laura, I am one of the first to get power back on at day 12.

2 hours ago, JaxBill said:

@RyanMaue: After 2-hours of nothing, we are now off to the races with Hurricane Sally as the storm intensifies again.  9:54 PM ET

The eye is now closed off on radar & pressure will surely be dropping. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1305687004508815361/photo/1

Looks ragged as hell now. Eye is open on the South side. Best I've seen is a 3/4 eyewall. Right now it's probably 1/4 - 1/2.

 

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4 hours ago, scottybo said:

Looks ragged as hell now. Eye is open on the South side. Best I've seen is a 3/4 eyewall. Right now it's probably 1/4 - 1/2.

It’s lost 15 mph sustained wind speed since you posted this. Sally might limp ashore as a tropical storm. Still bringing plenty of rain, though.

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2 hours ago, Doug B said:

It’s lost 15 mph sustained wind speed since you posted this. Sally might limp ashore as a tropical storm. Still bringing plenty of rain, though.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-1019A-SALLY_timeseries.png

Pressure still going down.  Need to see how she wakes up.  Not entirely uncommon to see a little wobble before dawn even ots.

 

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Pensacola/Mobile getting dumped on while this storm barely moves

@JackSillin: Lots of discussion of #Sally's inner core this morning but it's the rainband east of the center that's causing most of the problems on land.

This is the type of rain band that produces extreme rainfall (>12") with frequent embedded tornadoes.

Watch out #Pensacola #FLwx! https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305836911353831425/photo/1

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Looks like any storm chaser in Gulf Shores/ Orange Beach are there for the duration

 

@BaldwinEMA: Gulf Shores is closing the Hwy. 59 bridge  and Hwy. 59 South from Fort Morgan to the beach. Orange Beach closed Foley Beach Express toll bridge + Perdido Pass bridge. If you are on the island, you will not be able to get off the island until the bridges reopen. #HurricaneSally

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33 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

Looks like any storm chaser in Gulf Shores/ Orange Beach are there for the duration

 

@BaldwinEMA: Gulf Shores is closing the Hwy. 59 bridge  and Hwy. 59 South from Fort Morgan to the beach. Orange Beach closed Foley Beach Express toll bridge + Perdido Pass bridge. If you are on the island, you will not be able to get off the island until the bridges reopen. #HurricaneSally

I was wondering if Jeff would make the trip because the winds wouldn't be putting on a show, but he's there. 

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Seems like Orange Beach took a direct hit at Cat 2 strength.  Wasn't as bad as if it had gone straight up Mobile Bay.   The streamers last night were pretty funny.  

Teddy is starting to look like a really big deal though.

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My parents are in Foley, just north of Gulf Shores. Luckily they stayed in a motel last night (they have been full-timing in an RV for the past 16 years) but are without power and apparently have an inch of water on the floor.  They are waiting to see what the back half of the storm brings before determining next steps. Apparently their RV is intact but no power there either. They have a generator but not sure how long that will last. 

Edited by Senor Schmutzig
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NWS Phoenix

@NWSPhoenix

Hurricane Sally is forecast to drop as much as 30 inches of rain over parts of Alabama/Florida! That is almost as much as the grand total rainfall measured at Phoenix Sky Harbor since Jan 01st 2015 (30.92 inches)! A lot of rain! #alwx #flwx #azwx #cawx @NWSMobile

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1 hour ago, Shula-holic said:

We have a place under construction in Orange Beach.  1st floor was still largely concrete and unfinished, glad they decided to save that for last given this.

Let me know when it is done, been looking for a free place to stay down there!

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7 hours ago, culdeus said:

Seems like Orange Beach took a direct hit at Cat 2 strength.  Wasn't as bad as if it had gone straight up Mobile Bay.   The streamers last night were pretty funny.  

Teddy is starting to look like a really big deal though.

Good friend lives on the bay in OB...scary night last night with winds up to 125 mph, which shook his 2 story house...along with the waves hitting the first floor, which included a mancave that's been ruined.  Called 911 when smoke detectors went off and they smelled gas at 3 AM...911 said to call back at sunrise!  Street still completely underwater, and 1 death that he's aware of on his street.

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7 hours ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

My parents are in Foley, just north of Gulf Shores. Luckily they stayed in a motel last night (they have been full-timing in an RV for the past 16 years) but are without power and apparently have an inch of water on the floor.  They are waiting to see what the back half of the storm brings before determining next steps. Apparently their RV is intact but no power there either. They have a generator but not sure how long that will last. 

Heard from my parents and they were able to secure a non-soggy room so that's good. I'm surprised that anything was available considering the workers and relief help that is going to be streaming in. Going to stay one more night there, even without electricity, as the roads are difficult to manage. My dad doesn't get around too easily so I'm okay with that.

They seem to be in good spirits and taking things in stride. 

My dad when I asked him earlier how things were going: "at about 4am, the wind blew in and broke the hallway door leading to outside and water began driving up the hallway.It came into our room and we have about an inch of water on the floor. Other than that, we are quite comfortable on our island bed." :lmao:

They were able to get in touch with the manager of the RV park and he said their RV was still standing so that's good. 

 

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2 hours ago, Senor Schmutzig said:

Heard from my parents and they were able to secure a non-soggy room so that's good. I'm surprised that anything was available considering the workers and relief help that is going to be streaming in. Going to stay one more night there, even without electricity, as the roads are difficult to manage. My dad doesn't get around too easily so I'm okay with that.

They seem to be in good spirits and taking things in stride. 

My dad when I asked him earlier how things were going: "at about 4am, the wind blew in and broke the hallway door leading to outside and water began driving up the hallway.It came into our room and we have about an inch of water on the floor. Other than that, we are quite comfortable on our island bed." :lmao:

They were able to get in touch with the manager of the RV park and he said their RV was still standing so that's good. 

 

Crazy. Serious question though if they have an RV and this is been coming for a few days why didn’t they just drive further inland and find an RV park up away from the coast?

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Lost part of my roof and lots of stuff torn up on the north side at my place.  Feel lucky, though.  Pictures from Ft. Morgan are devastating.  Checked all the bouys last night and the one on Ft. Morgan saw the highest winds by far.  Couple hour stretch of 80+ sustained and 105 gusts.  

2020 simply cannot end soon enough.  What a ####ty year.

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13 hours ago, mr roboto said:

Crazy. Serious question though if they have an RV and this is been coming for a few days why didn’t they just drive further inland and find an RV park up away from the coast?

Valid question. Truthfully, I didn't want them to do that. My dad is a bit stubborn in his old age and while they have been living the RV life for the past 16 years, the past 3-4 years they haven't really moved it from Gulf Shores. It used to be the place they would spend the summer but the last couple of years, it has been their permanent, year-round home. If I/they thought that packing up and moving the RV was a valid option at this point, they would have done it. I'm kind of glad they didn't. There are a lot of growing reasons as to why. 

I am actually in the final stages of purchasing a permanent place for them in Florida (more hurricanes!) to be closer to family and move away from that RV once and for all. RV's just aren't meant to be lived in year-round for 16 years. Plus, my dad isn't very mobile anymore so the simpler the move (to a motel), the better. 

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

Euro model has a storm developing in the Gulf, getting decent strong and taking dead aim at NOLA by next Wednesday at 990mb. I suppose this is what is being called 90L right now.    

A cold front is coming through the northern Gulf over the next few days ... I'm betting on the still-too-early Euro model being wrong with specific landfall predictions six days out. Aside from that ... 990 mb would likely just be a blustery, rainy day. Isolated flooding rains would be in play, but we get plenty of that without the help of tropical systems.

Granted, these spaghetti models are from last night, but as of 12 hours ago ... there wasn't exactly much of a consensus read on this thing.

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County power outages reached 150,000 out of 200,000 customers at one point. I was one of the lucky 50,000 that never lost power. This is no Katrina or even Ivan, but it's pretty damn close to Ivan.

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21 hours ago, Doug B said:

A cold front is coming through the northern Gulf over the next few days ... I'm betting on the still-too-early Euro model being wrong with specific landfall predictions six days out. Aside from that ... 990 mb would likely just be a blustery, rainy day. Isolated flooding rains would be in play, but we get plenty of that without the help of tropical systems.

Granted, these spaghetti models are from last night, but as of 12 hours ago ... there wasn't exactly much of a consensus read on this thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxE475WyJ-I&t=151s

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1 minute ago, Doug B said:

tl;dw ... but within the first few minutes after your time stamp, the video didn't seem to indicate a specific threat to the New Orleans area. Does the video ever get to that?

I mean it's still more than a week out.  Models break down after 5 days. That's the section that shows how it could track into LA though.  

It doesn't look to be much of a problem unless it goes full harvey on areas of the Texas coast.

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On 9/16/2020 at 4:00 PM, gump said:

Good friend lives on the bay in OB...scary night last night with winds up to 125 mph, which shook his 2 story house...along with the waves hitting the first floor, which included a mancave that's been ruined.  Called 911 when smoke detectors went off and they smelled gas at 3 AM...911 said to call back at sunrise!  Street still completely underwater, and 1 death that he's aware of on his street.

My friend was interviewed by NPR...

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57 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I mean it's still more than a week out.  Models break down after 5 days. That's the section that shows how it could track into LA though.  

It doesn't look to be much of a problem unless it goes full harvey on areas of the Texas coast.

I am worried about exactly this.

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21 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

This is the 2nd time in 15 years that we've run out of names. Maybe it's time to start using Q, U, X, Y and Z?

Americans complain about not being able to pronounce some of the names now, can you imagine how bad that would get?

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52 minutes ago, Mjolnirs said:

Americans complain about not being able to pronounce some of the names now, can you imagine how bad that would get?

Maybe honor more african american names?

Quandarious

Udonis

Xavier

Youseekah (actually interviewed someone with this name)

Zion

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Only about 70% of power has been restored here from Laura.  Now we might get heavy rains from Beta.  It doesn't look likely that we will get a strong wind event, but could have major rainfall and we can't handle it now.  Ditches and drainage laterals are full of Laura debris.  It will take months to clear it. We could have major flooding issues if we get big rains.  Crap.  I have worked 32 straight days and now we go back into panic mode.  I was hoping to get my yard finally cleaned up this afternoon.  Tree guy is removing the neighbor's oak that smashed our deck right now. I'll probably end up working all day. 

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6 hours ago, Otis said:

Man, global warming is brutalizing the gulf coast.  There’s like a hurricane or tropical storm there at least once a week now it seems. 

Actually the funny part is global warming makes steering ridges a lot stronger, so you will end up with about the same landfall count while more storms just go out to sea.  This is true for conus but Asia is a different story, and more complex.  Global warming will make hurricanes different, but maybe not different worse.   The flooding effects and fire effects will be felt much worse and already are 

You can though envision a day though where two super strong ridges pin a storm like Laura mid gulf to get to something absurd deep.  

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Still no power back from Sally for me, or at least not last night. Stayed with a friend in Daphne who got it back yesterday. About to head home. Need a new roof and some siding was damaged, but it wasn’t too bad, and I definitely needed a new roof anyway. 

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Power back. Guess cleaning the garage clean-up will have to wait for another day. Pulled 5 small stumps in the rain today because what the hell else was there to do? Insurance adjuster will be here in the morning, and since I broke the steering in the truck on Friday, I gotta see if the diesel mechanic is up and running so I can get a tow. 2020 can kiss my fat ###.

Haven't even been able to pull up Tropical Tidbits to see where Beta is heading, but I've heard Texas. There's also this little #### wad crossing the Florida peninsual into the GOM I've heard about. 

Gonna get day drunk and watch football.

Any of that stuff heads my way, and I'm going to get mom's generator in B'ham. Going to get that handled for myself at Christmas.

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  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

it's not over yet; Tropical Depression forecasted to enter the Gulf

Yep, Gamma is here

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