Official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Iota

[culdeus 7,392]

Models are converging on more or less a Cat 2 hitting SE Louisiana.  The news is all over Trump Corona stuff, but I mean this is not good.

[Mjolnirs 1,020]

3 hours ago, culdeus said:

Models are converging on more or less a Cat 2 hitting SE Louisiana.  The news is all over Trump Corona stuff, but I mean this is not good.

No it is not.  I know how nerve racking it is when one or two of those threaten us.  This pounding of the Gulf coast is just crazy.  I feel for everyone down there.

[scottybo 284]

[Mjolnirs 1,020]

Delta

Since the tradition is to retire names of storms that become major storms and cause severe damage, what happens if Delta ramps up and does that?
Can you retire a letter of the Greek alphabet?

[culdeus 7,392]

14 hours ago, Mjolnirs said:

Delta

Since the tradition is to retire names of storms that become major storms and cause severe damage, what happens if Delta ramps up and does that?
Can you retire a letter of the Greek alphabet?

No. They have already clarified this.  

[culdeus 7,392]

Also it sounds like if they were ever to run out of greek letters the plan would be to cycle thru them again with a 2.  Like Alpha2 Beta2 electric boogalo

[JaxBill 6,833]

@JackSillin: A couple interesting notes from the latest NHC advisory on #Delta. 
-It's tiny! Hurricane-force winds only extend 20 miles from the eye
-Now expected to strengthen into a 120kt (140mph) Category Four hurricane before landfall in #Cancun.
-Now expected to remain a Cat 3 into #LAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313493762912518145/photo/1

[sho nuff 16,898]

10 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

@JackSillin: A couple interesting notes from the latest NHC advisory on #Delta. 
-It's tiny! Hurricane-force winds only extend 20 miles from the eye
-Now expected to strengthen into a 120kt (140mph) Category Four hurricane before landfall in #Cancun.
-Now expected to remain a Cat 3 into #LAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313493762912518145/photo/1

Yeah we are watching this one...in Miramar Beach...may be cutting our week short leaving late Friday vs Saturday and having to drive through its remnants.

[scottybo 284]

35 mph tropical depression 30 hours ago.

Now 130 mph Cat 4 hurricane.

Fastest intensification from depression to Cat 4 on record.

Edited October 6, 2020 by scottybo

[Cowboysfan8 7,742]

My wife is in Cancun 

🙄

[worrierking 1,436]

Latest track moving closer to me in SW LA.  Lots of people here still don't have cable and internet from Laura.  I worked 40 straight days and just had my first decent weekend since before the storm. I am not sure I can take the stress of another one.  Crap.

[culdeus 7,392]

The track forecasting is going to be quite complex with gamma in the mix.  From an intensity standpoint you want the thing to go as East as possible.  The more west it is the stronger it will be both for the fact that it will be out over warmer water longer, and slower facing (or having faced) less steering from the ridge over TX right now.  

[culdeus 7,392]

It's really strange how they have no warnings or surge forecasts up yet, and this thing hits in two days.  Layfayette is the current landfall prediction but the variance in this could be tremendous.

[Doug B 6,768]

26 minutes ago, culdeus said:

It's really strange how they have no warnings or surge forecasts up yet, and this thing hits in two days.  Layfayette is the current landfall prediction but the variance in this could be tremendous.

Check out Section 3 from the NHC's Hurricane Delta advisory (from 4 a.m. CDT today).

With the delay in surge forecasts, they may be trading 12-18 hours of earlier notification for greater accuracy of surge heights and locations. Just speculation on my part ... but it seems reasonable that even this "late", the specifics may not yet be known of just where this thing is going and how much water it will be pushing when it gets there.

Edited October 7, 2020 by Doug B

[Doug B 6,768]

NHC making my point: the 10 a.m. CDT track update shifted projected landfall another 30 miles westward, in eastern Cameron Parish. As a point of comparison, Hurricane Laura came in over western Cameron Parish.

[sho nuff 16,898]

7 hours ago, Doug B said:

NHC making my point: the 10 a.m. CDT track update shifted projected landfall another 30 miles westward, in eastern Cameron Parish. As a point of comparison, Hurricane Laura came in over western Cameron Parish.

Were they waiting to see how it reacted back over water after going through Cancun?

Hoping everyone stays safe there in LA...we were fortunate as we are here on the Florida Panhandle til the weekend.

[Doug B 6,768]

1 hour ago, sho nuff said:

Were they waiting to see how it reacted back over water after going through Cancun?

Perhaps. Early this morning, for instance, they wouldn't have yet known that Delta would weaken back down to a marginal Cat 1 after crossing the Yucatan.

Some specific surge warnings have apparently gone out to some communities in SW Louisiana, even if they aren't making national news. Many low-lying areas without levee protection are now under a mandatory evacuation order.

[culdeus 7,392]

Could dial in exactly Laura's track with harder slice post landfall

[Desert_Power 803]

That's a big storm

[worrierking 1,436]

Last day for us to prepare.  I'm working now, will head home and try to get everything inside or locked down after lunch.  My ditch is still full of Laura debris.  I need to clear it as well as I can for drainage.  I have a bunch of sheet metal from my neighbor a block away that blew into my yard in Laura.  I need to get it in my garage so it doesn't fly through the air slicing everything in its path like a veg-o-matic (or my two-iron). This sucks.

[ChiefD 19,198]

21 minutes ago, worrierking said:

Last day for us to prepare.  I'm working now, will head home and try to get everything inside or locked down after lunch.  My ditch is still full of Laura debris.  I need to clear it as well as I can for drainage.  I have a bunch of sheet metal from my neighbor a block away that blew into my yard in Laura.  I need to get it in my garage so it doesn't fly through the air slicing everything in its path like a veg-o-matic (or my two-iron). This sucks.

Be safe out there. 

[Doug B 6,768]

4 hours ago, worrierking said:

Last day for us to prepare.  I'm working now, will head home and try to get everything inside or locked down after lunch.  My ditch is still full of Laura debris.  I need to clear it as well as I can for drainage.  I have a bunch of sheet metal from my neighbor a block away that blew into my yard in Laura.  I need to get it in my garage so it doesn't fly through the air slicing everything in its path like a veg-o-matic (or my two-iron). This sucks.

Silver lining: Delta's going to come in with a lot less windspeed than Laura. Hopefully that will help mitigate the effects.

[guru_007 793]

https://twitter.com/doceotors/status/1313945130240442370

"Just to give everyone an idea of the damage we haven't recovered from yet. This is an aerial shot of Lake Charles. Look at the blue tarps on all those roofs!"

[culdeus 7,392]

Delta is a big girl compared to Laura.  

[culdeus 7,392]

Weakening quite a bit, but the windfield is expanding.  This is probably not a good situation as areas with damage will still see 100mph winds throwing debris everywhere, and the storm surge will be broader than Laura and still rather strong for a Cat2ish type landfall based on the nature of the windfield.

 

[worrierking 1,436]

I'm settled in at work for the duration.  Wife is in North Texas and my cat will endure another storm under the bed at home.  She will hiss at me for a week after the storm, but she's too high-strung to handle an evacuation.

Drippy rain right now.  Winds 25ish.  

[Ron Swanson 2,913]

3 minutes ago, worrierking said:

I'm settled in at work for the duration.  Wife is in North Texas and my cat will endure another storm under the bed at home.  She will hiss at me for a week after the storm, but she's too high-strung to handle an evacuation.

Drippy rain right now.  Winds 25ish.  

Good luck. Stay safe.

[Doug B 6,768]

3 hours ago, worrierking said:

I'm settled in at work for the duration.  Wife is in North Texas and my cat will endure another storm under the bed at home.  She will hiss at me for a week after the storm, but she's too high-strung to handle an evacuation.

Drippy rain right now.  Winds 25ish.  

Delta's moving fast and its windspeed is going to drop some more as it starts to get closer to the coast and incorporate dry air from over land. Think you guys will be a lot better off with this one than with Laura. Good luck.

[Shula-holic 2,304]

On 10/6/2020 at 12:02 PM, Cowboysfan8 said:

My wife is in Cancun 

🙄

Hopefully wherever she was they took care of her.  I still follow the resort on Facebook that we went to down there two years ago.  They put all the guests on a bus for 5 hours to Merida.  Some had to stay in some real dumps, showers that wouldn't work, etc.  Sent them with a cheese sandwich in a paper bag and one bottle of water.  They did finally bus them back to the CUN airport and those who were supposed to stay longer they put up at another resort.  They aren't reopening themselves until Monday.

[Cowboysfan8 7,742]

6 hours ago, Shula-holic said:

Hopefully wherever she was they took care of her.  I still follow the resort on Facebook that we went to down there two years ago.  They put all the guests on a bus for 5 hours to Merida.  Some had to stay in some real dumps, showers that wouldn't work, etc.  Sent them with a cheese sandwich in a paper bag and one bottle of water.  They did finally bus them back to the CUN airport and those who were supposed to stay longer they put up at another resort.  They aren't reopening themselves until Monday.

Oof

There weren’t enough seats on bus for my wife’s group (5 women) so they were sent a taxi van. 
One hour ride to an empty school. The staff went also. Cooked steaks for dinner. Fruit and yogurt etc for breakfast then back to the resort that afternoon.

No AC and slept on lounge chairs but could have been much worse for sure 

[worrierking 1,436]

House is fine.  Cat is fine.  Lots of flooding is the worst aspect of the storm. Wind damage is not that bad.  Most tarps came off, so those houses likely took in water again.  

[Mjolnirs 1,020]

On 10/10/2020 at 10:15 AM, worrierking said:

House is fine.  Cat is fine.  Lots of flooding is the worst aspect of the storm. Wind damage is not that bad.  Most tarps came off, so those houses likely took in water again.  

That just sucks.

[Mjolnirs 1,020]

TD 27

At least it isn't in the Gulf.

[Doug B 6,768]

1 hour ago, Mjolnirs said:

TD 27

At least it isn't in the Gulf.

Here fishie fishie.

[Joe Summer 9,489]

Tropical Storm Zeta was named a few hours ago. It's expected to make landfall at Louisiana on Wednesday.

[Osaurus 9,057]

6 hours ago, Joe Summer said:

Tropical Storm Zeta was named a few hours ago. It's expected to make landfall at Louisiana on Wednesday.

Been a rough season for LA folks. 

[Drunken Cowboy 1,421]

52 minutes ago, Osaurus said:

Been a rough season for LA folks. 

I was about to post the same thing. If with this many storms, it is crazy how many they are getting. 

[Kal El 3,822]

Louisiana can't buy a break this year. This is what, the 6th one projected to hit them in about 4 months? 

[Mjolnirs 1,020]

Damn!

Zeta

[culdeus 7,392]

Zeta looks likely to hit Louisiana as a weak Cat 1 in a few days, but the models have an additional formation, that will....yes hit Louisiana.  

Should have Hurricane Zeta at the next advisory, has the wind speeds and pressure.  

[Nathan R. Jessep 5,761]

40 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Zeta looks likely to hit Louisiana as a weak Cat 1 in a few days, but the models have an additional formation, that will....yes hit Louisiana.  

Should have Hurricane Zeta at the next advisory, has the wind speeds and pressure.  

link to that one?

[culdeus 7,392]

37 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

link to that one?

Gfs at 270ish hours.  Latest has it going well east.  It's 10+ days out.  My farts are better forecast at 10 days for track.  

[scottybo 284]

4th storm to impact the area this season. 35 more days until the season is "over".

[Doug B 6,768]

21 minutes ago, scottybo said:

4th storm to impact the area this season. 35 more days until the season is "over".

Louisiana is a wide state. The other two biggish storms, Laura and Delta, hit SW Louisiana but left alone everything east of Lafayette. In fact, we in N.O. had nice weather when those two were coming ashore.

There was a TS Cristobal at some point that passed over SE Louisiana. I have no specific recall of it. Probably a blustery, rainy day and no more than that. Maybe it passed at night.

Now this one, Zeta ... yeah, we're probably gonna get it close to New Orleans. Looks like it will be a fast mover, though, and not all that powerful. Wind, rain, not much street flooding if any (but if any streets get water, you know the video will be all over the national news to show how N.O. is "getting wiped out").

[culdeus 7,392]

Conditions aren't right for this thing to be strong at landfall.  

[culdeus 7,392]

It's going to get moving so fast it's not out of question it makes it to Atlanta as a very low Cat 1.   

[culdeus 7,392]

the east side of the eye has much stronger winds than the west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

 

[2Young2BBald 528]

I am working Hurricane Sally in AL and staying in Mobile a block off Mobile Bay. There is some serious sand bagging being done around here. It’ll be interesting to see just what the surge does here. You can feel the moisture coming in the air too. 

[Nathan R. Jessep 5,761]

Good grief. Sudden ramp up to Cat-2 as it nears the coast.  Stay safe, south LA peeps!! 

[worrierking 1,436]

I am not in the cone of uncertainty for this one.  I don't exactly know how to act.