culdeus 7,254 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Models are converging on more or less a Cat 2 hitting SE Louisiana. The news is all over Trump Corona stuff, but I mean this is not good. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mjolnirs 1,014 Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 3 hours ago, culdeus said: Models are converging on more or less a Cat 2 hitting SE Louisiana. The news is all over Trump Corona stuff, but I mean this is not good. No it is not. I know how nerve racking it is when one or two of those threaten us. This pounding of the Gulf coast is just crazy. I feel for everyone down there. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottybo 279 Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mjolnirs 1,014 Posted October 5, 2020 Author Share Posted October 5, 2020 Delta Since the tradition is to retire names of storms that become major storms and cause severe damage, what happens if Delta ramps up and does that? Can you retire a letter of the Greek alphabet? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 14 hours ago, Mjolnirs said: Delta Since the tradition is to retire names of storms that become major storms and cause severe damage, what happens if Delta ramps up and does that? Can you retire a letter of the Greek alphabet? No. They have already clarified this. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Also it sounds like if they were ever to run out of greek letters the plan would be to cycle thru them again with a 2. Like Alpha2 Beta2 electric boogalo 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JaxBill 6,736 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 @JackSillin: A couple interesting notes from the latest NHC advisory on #Delta. -It's tiny! Hurricane-force winds only extend 20 miles from the eye -Now expected to strengthen into a 120kt (140mph) Category Four hurricane before landfall in #Cancun. -Now expected to remain a Cat 3 into #LAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313493762912518145/photo/1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sho nuff 16,560 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 10 minutes ago, JaxBill said: @JackSillin: A couple interesting notes from the latest NHC advisory on #Delta. -It's tiny! Hurricane-force winds only extend 20 miles from the eye -Now expected to strengthen into a 120kt (140mph) Category Four hurricane before landfall in #Cancun. -Now expected to remain a Cat 3 into #LAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1313493762912518145/photo/1 Yeah we are watching this one...in Miramar Beach...may be cutting our week short leaving late Friday vs Saturday and having to drive through its remnants. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottybo 279 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) 35 mph tropical depression 30 hours ago. Now 130 mph Cat 4 hurricane. Fastest intensification from depression to Cat 4 on record. Edited October 6, 2020 by scottybo Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cowboysfan8 7,623 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 My wife is in Cancun 🙄 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
worrierking 1,392 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Latest track moving closer to me in SW LA. Lots of people here still don't have cable and internet from Laura. I worked 40 straight days and just had my first decent weekend since before the storm. I am not sure I can take the stress of another one. Crap. 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 The track forecasting is going to be quite complex with gamma in the mix. From an intensity standpoint you want the thing to go as East as possible. The more west it is the stronger it will be both for the fact that it will be out over warmer water longer, and slower facing (or having faced) less steering from the ridge over TX right now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 It's really strange how they have no warnings or surge forecasts up yet, and this thing hits in two days. Layfayette is the current landfall prediction but the variance in this could be tremendous. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, culdeus said: It's really strange how they have no warnings or surge forecasts up yet, and this thing hits in two days. Layfayette is the current landfall prediction but the variance in this could be tremendous. Check out Section 3 from the NHC's Hurricane Delta advisory (from 4 a.m. CDT today). With the delay in surge forecasts, they may be trading 12-18 hours of earlier notification for greater accuracy of surge heights and locations. Just speculation on my part ... but it seems reasonable that even this "late", the specifics may not yet be known of just where this thing is going and how much water it will be pushing when it gets there. Edited October 7, 2020 by Doug B Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 NHC making my point: the 10 a.m. CDT track update shifted projected landfall another 30 miles westward, in eastern Cameron Parish. As a point of comparison, Hurricane Laura came in over western Cameron Parish. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sho nuff 16,560 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 7 hours ago, Doug B said: NHC making my point: the 10 a.m. CDT track update shifted projected landfall another 30 miles westward, in eastern Cameron Parish. As a point of comparison, Hurricane Laura came in over western Cameron Parish. Were they waiting to see how it reacted back over water after going through Cancun? Hoping everyone stays safe there in LA...we were fortunate as we are here on the Florida Panhandle til the weekend. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 hour ago, sho nuff said: Were they waiting to see how it reacted back over water after going through Cancun? Perhaps. Early this morning, for instance, they wouldn't have yet known that Delta would weaken back down to a marginal Cat 1 after crossing the Yucatan. Some specific surge warnings have apparently gone out to some communities in SW Louisiana, even if they aren't making national news. Many low-lying areas without levee protection are now under a mandatory evacuation order. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Could dial in exactly Laura's track with harder slice post landfall Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Desert_Power 506 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 That's a big storm Quote Link to post Share on other sites
worrierking 1,392 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Last day for us to prepare. I'm working now, will head home and try to get everything inside or locked down after lunch. My ditch is still full of Laura debris. I need to clear it as well as I can for drainage. I have a bunch of sheet metal from my neighbor a block away that blew into my yard in Laura. I need to get it in my garage so it doesn't fly through the air slicing everything in its path like a veg-o-matic (or my two-iron). This sucks. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ChiefD 18,491 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, worrierking said: Last day for us to prepare. I'm working now, will head home and try to get everything inside or locked down after lunch. My ditch is still full of Laura debris. I need to clear it as well as I can for drainage. I have a bunch of sheet metal from my neighbor a block away that blew into my yard in Laura. I need to get it in my garage so it doesn't fly through the air slicing everything in its path like a veg-o-matic (or my two-iron). This sucks. Be safe out there. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 4 hours ago, worrierking said: Last day for us to prepare. I'm working now, will head home and try to get everything inside or locked down after lunch. My ditch is still full of Laura debris. I need to clear it as well as I can for drainage. I have a bunch of sheet metal from my neighbor a block away that blew into my yard in Laura. I need to get it in my garage so it doesn't fly through the air slicing everything in its path like a veg-o-matic (or my two-iron). This sucks. Silver lining: Delta's going to come in with a lot less windspeed than Laura. Hopefully that will help mitigate the effects. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
guru_007 757 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 https://twitter.com/doceotors/status/1313945130240442370 "Just to give everyone an idea of the damage we haven't recovered from yet. This is an aerial shot of Lake Charles. Look at the blue tarps on all those roofs!" Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 Delta is a big girl compared to Laura. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Weakening quite a bit, but the windfield is expanding. This is probably not a good situation as areas with damage will still see 100mph winds throwing debris everywhere, and the storm surge will be broader than Laura and still rather strong for a Cat2ish type landfall based on the nature of the windfield. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
worrierking 1,392 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 I'm settled in at work for the duration. Wife is in North Texas and my cat will endure another storm under the bed at home. She will hiss at me for a week after the storm, but she's too high-strung to handle an evacuation. Drippy rain right now. Winds 25ish. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ron Swanson 2,767 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, worrierking said: I'm settled in at work for the duration. Wife is in North Texas and my cat will endure another storm under the bed at home. She will hiss at me for a week after the storm, but she's too high-strung to handle an evacuation. Drippy rain right now. Winds 25ish. Good luck. Stay safe. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 hours ago, worrierking said: I'm settled in at work for the duration. Wife is in North Texas and my cat will endure another storm under the bed at home. She will hiss at me for a week after the storm, but she's too high-strung to handle an evacuation. Drippy rain right now. Winds 25ish. Delta's moving fast and its windspeed is going to drop some more as it starts to get closer to the coast and incorporate dry air from over land. Think you guys will be a lot better off with this one than with Laura. Good luck. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Shula-holic 2,216 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 On 10/6/2020 at 12:02 PM, Cowboysfan8 said: My wife is in Cancun 🙄 Hopefully wherever she was they took care of her. I still follow the resort on Facebook that we went to down there two years ago. They put all the guests on a bus for 5 hours to Merida. Some had to stay in some real dumps, showers that wouldn't work, etc. Sent them with a cheese sandwich in a paper bag and one bottle of water. They did finally bus them back to the CUN airport and those who were supposed to stay longer they put up at another resort. They aren't reopening themselves until Monday. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cowboysfan8 7,623 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 6 hours ago, Shula-holic said: Hopefully wherever she was they took care of her. I still follow the resort on Facebook that we went to down there two years ago. They put all the guests on a bus for 5 hours to Merida. Some had to stay in some real dumps, showers that wouldn't work, etc. Sent them with a cheese sandwich in a paper bag and one bottle of water. They did finally bus them back to the CUN airport and those who were supposed to stay longer they put up at another resort. They aren't reopening themselves until Monday. Oof There weren’t enough seats on bus for my wife’s group (5 women) so they were sent a taxi van. One hour ride to an empty school. The staff went also. Cooked steaks for dinner. Fruit and yogurt etc for breakfast then back to the resort that afternoon. No AC and slept on lounge chairs but could have been much worse for sure Quote Link to post Share on other sites
worrierking 1,392 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 House is fine. Cat is fine. Lots of flooding is the worst aspect of the storm. Wind damage is not that bad. Most tarps came off, so those houses likely took in water again. 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mjolnirs 1,014 Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 On 10/10/2020 at 10:15 AM, worrierking said: House is fine. Cat is fine. Lots of flooding is the worst aspect of the storm. Wind damage is not that bad. Most tarps came off, so those houses likely took in water again. That just sucks. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mjolnirs 1,014 Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 TD 27 At least it isn't in the Gulf. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Mjolnirs said: TD 27 At least it isn't in the Gulf. Here fishie fishie. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Joe Summer 9,489 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Tropical Storm Zeta was named a few hours ago. It's expected to make landfall at Louisiana on Wednesday. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Osaurus 8,939 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 6 hours ago, Joe Summer said: Tropical Storm Zeta was named a few hours ago. It's expected to make landfall at Louisiana on Wednesday. Been a rough season for LA folks. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Drunken Cowboy 1,368 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 52 minutes ago, Osaurus said: Been a rough season for LA folks. I was about to post the same thing. If with this many storms, it is crazy how many they are getting. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kal El 3,691 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Louisiana can't buy a break this year. This is what, the 6th one projected to hit them in about 4 months? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mjolnirs 1,014 Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 Damn! Zeta Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Zeta looks likely to hit Louisiana as a weak Cat 1 in a few days, but the models have an additional formation, that will....yes hit Louisiana. Should have Hurricane Zeta at the next advisory, has the wind speeds and pressure. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nathan R. Jessep 5,686 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, culdeus said: Zeta looks likely to hit Louisiana as a weak Cat 1 in a few days, but the models have an additional formation, that will....yes hit Louisiana. Should have Hurricane Zeta at the next advisory, has the wind speeds and pressure. link to that one? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 37 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said: link to that one? Gfs at 270ish hours. Latest has it going well east. It's 10+ days out. My farts are better forecast at 10 days for track. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
scottybo 279 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4th storm to impact the area this season. 35 more days until the season is "over". Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Doug B 6,580 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, scottybo said: 4th storm to impact the area this season. 35 more days until the season is "over". Louisiana is a wide state. The other two biggish storms, Laura and Delta, hit SW Louisiana but left alone everything east of Lafayette. In fact, we in N.O. had nice weather when those two were coming ashore. There was a TS Cristobal at some point that passed over SE Louisiana. I have no specific recall of it. Probably a blustery, rainy day and no more than that. Maybe it passed at night. Now this one, Zeta ... yeah, we're probably gonna get it close to New Orleans. Looks like it will be a fast mover, though, and not all that powerful. Wind, rain, not much street flooding if any (but if any streets get water, you know the video will be all over the national news to show how N.O. is "getting wiped out"). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Conditions aren't right for this thing to be strong at landfall. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 It's going to get moving so fast it's not out of question it makes it to Atlanta as a very low Cat 1. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
culdeus 7,254 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 the east side of the eye has much stronger winds than the west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
2Young2BBald 515 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I am working Hurricane Sally in AL and staying in Mobile a block off Mobile Bay. There is some serious sand bagging being done around here. It’ll be interesting to see just what the surge does here. You can feel the moisture coming in the air too. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nathan R. Jessep 5,686 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Good grief. Sudden ramp up to Cat-2 as it nears the coast. Stay safe, south LA peeps!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
worrierking 1,392 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I am not in the cone of uncertainty for this one. I don't exactly know how to act. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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