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Van Jefferson WR *New Look* LA Rams


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Didn't see a thread. Seems like a good value, but not sure if he can be an outside WR? Looks like they think he is a hybrid Kupp/Woods guy. Currently the plan is for him to learn all 3 positions. Guessing with Kupp possibly on the way out after this season, thinking he could be in line for a nice role next season. Word is good hands, really good route runner, not "fast" but a good savvy type that knows how to get open. I am a fan.

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He's so cheap, I own him almost everywhere now. Polished, good ball skills, faster than people think, good draft capital.  No idea why this guy is falling to the 3rd round of most rookie drafts,

The more I look at things, I really like him.   Kupp may leave after this year, right? Jefferson looks like the real deal.  Could have a helluva role in a great offense next year.  

Positives: Strong senior bowl week.  Regarded as one of the better router runners in the draft, polished,  speed to go along with route running. Negatives: older and college production left you w

Just now, foxco said:

Yeah, grabbed him in the 3rd in my 2 rookie drafts, like his long term Potential, may need patience. 

Agreed. He's going late 2, early 3 in the PPR rookie drafts I have had so far (4). I'm still in the "wait til year 3" group as far as WR patience is concerned, so that's no problem here. Still waiting for Will Fuller to break out in a few leagues lmao

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Rams selected Florida WR Van Jefferson with the No. 57 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

A 2016 Freshman All-SEC team member, Jefferson (6'1/200) transferred from Ole Miss to Florida in 2018, starting all 26 games in Gainesville as a redshirt junior and senior. Son to an NFL wide receivers coach (Shawn Jefferson) who also played 13 years with the Detroit Lions, Van doesn't lack any fundamentals, details, and specifics of playing the position. His production, on the other hand, just wasn't there as he totaled fewer than 700 receiving yards in every year throughout his college career. His reliable hands (13 drops on 267 career targets) and quickness will be his best friends at the next level as he develops as a 23-year-old rookie.

Apr 24, 2020, 9:07 PM ET

 

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ESPN.com's Matt Bowen believes that Florida WR Van Jefferson has the best hands of anyone at his position group in this draft class. 

"Jefferson is one of the top route runners in this class, with pro-ready traits in that department," Bowen wrote. "But he also showcases strong hands at the point of attack, allowing him to snag the ball in tight windows." Jefferson (6'1/200) was unable to take part in the NFL Scouting Combine due to a Jones fracture that required surgery, but it's well-known what he can do as a pass-catcher. If there's an issue for him heading into this week's draft it's the depth of the receiver position, which likely limits his ceiling to going on Day 2. Whoever lands Jefferson will be getting a polished route-runner who also displayed consistent catching ability as a collegian.

SOURCE: ESPN Insider

Apr 21, 2020, 6:34 PM ET

 

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Speaking with The Athletic's Bob McGinn, one scout said Florida WR Van Jefferson plays with "a lot more speed than I thought he had." 

Being that Jefferson (6'1/200) is the son of former NFL WR and current WR coach, it is no surprise Jefferson is a crisp, nuanced route runner coming out of college. What is surprising to one scout, however, is how athletic Jefferson proved to be. "He’s got serious juice. He can break people off and get open," one scout said of the former Gator. Unfortunately, Jefferson never got to work out at the NFL Combine due to a foot injury/surgery, so we do not have the numbers that could have further explored Jefferson's athletic potential. Jefferson was ranked 11th among wide receivers in McGinn's poll of NFL execs and scouts. 

SOURCE: The Athletic

Apr 16, 2020, 3:50 PM ET

 

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NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compares Florida WR Van Jefferson to Tennessee Titans WR Adam Humphries.

Jefferson (6'1/200) is a bit of a do-it-all type, according to Zierlein. Jefferson is a "versatile, skilled receiver who has played all three receiver spots but is likely to do most of his damage from the slot." Though not the best athlete, Jefferson is a detailed technician with the "foot quickness for complex routes." Jefferson may not do a whole lot to threaten defenses with explosive plays, but as far as moving the chains, Jefferson is a great option as a reliable No.3.

SOURCE: NFL.com

Mar 13, 2020, 12:07 PM ET

 

 

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FWIW when we were doing our SP 3 round mock draft, I was drafting for the Vikings and I did not select a WR until the 3rd round.

I was hoping to get Bryan Edwards or Tyler Johnson there, but both were gone so I selected Jefferson as he seemed to be the WR left that really knew what he was doing as far as running routes and getting open.

I have watched a lot of rookie WR this year and Van Jefferson is very polished and ready to play.

It is fair to question his upside. We don't have combine metrics for him and it seems he may have been playing with a foot injury that may have hampered him. He did have the fastest recorded time at the senior bowl FWIW. He did that before they discovered the foot injury.

I was a little surprised he was drafted as high as he was. That is another positive sign for him.

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He's so cheap, I own him almost everywhere now.

Polished, good ball skills, faster than people think, good draft capital.  No idea why this guy is falling to the 3rd round of most rookie drafts, but I will take it.

Then again I am a Gators homer so maybe I'm not looking at him objectively.

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Why Van Jefferson is a Great Option for the Minnesota Vikings

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Or you can ask Stingley’s teammate, potential first round pick Kristian Fulton. He called Van Jefferson possibly the toughest receiver he faced, and that included premier talent like Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Devonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle.

Some nice cut up example plays.

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58 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

He's so cheap, I own him almost everywhere now.

Polished, good ball skills, faster than people think, good draft capital.  No idea why this guy is falling to the 3rd round of most rookie drafts, but I will take it.

Then again I am a Gators homer so maybe I'm not looking at him objectively.

Question being a Gator homer...what is up with his stats?  He had a very productive freshman year at Ole Miss then his numbers remained pretty much in the same ballpark for the next three.

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

He's so cheap, I own him almost everywhere now.

Polished, good ball skills, faster than people think, good draft capital.  No idea why this guy is falling to the 3rd round of most rookie drafts, but I will take it.

Then again I am a Gators homer so maybe I'm not looking at him objectively.

Yeah, I got him in nearly all of my drafts in the mid 3rd or later. I'm not super excited about him, but I wasn't about McClaurin last year either when I got him in the 4th everywhere. When in doubt, I'll bank on real NFL draft slot over whatever I think I saw in a guy.

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12 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

He's so cheap, I own him almost everywhere now.

Polished, good ball skills, faster than people think, good draft capital.  No idea why this guy is falling to the 3rd round of most rookie drafts, but I will take it.

Then again I am a Gators homer so maybe I'm not looking at him objectively.

He didn't have any love before the draft in fantasy circles that I saw. This thread was just created after all. These are the guys i target in rookie drafts, a 2nd round talent had sometimes in the 3rd of a rookie draft. Pretty sure it's better to trust the professionals.

Not that it matters, but I liked what I saw from him too. Looks like he gets open easily.

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Most very down on him, particularly analytics types but when u see a 2nd rd pick still there in the late rds it makes sense to take a chance on him. Had little interest in him but did get him in 5th rd of a fpc rookie draft and 19th rd of a fpc bb dynasty draft that is still going on now. Not much to lose imho.

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Own him everywhere too. He always seems to be the last of the 2nd/3rd round WRs taken. It’s his stats, they suck. But the Rams obviously like him, he looks good on tape and there a decent chance Kupp leaves after this year and his a perfect fit for that slot role. For the price, he’s a steal imo. 

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4 hours ago, massraider said:

This guy should change his name to Tape v Analytics.

 

By the way: 

Why is it, exactly, that there is no discussion of fantasy metrics in the Shark Pool?  Very weird.

 

Player Profiler - Van Jefferson WR

There are no workout metrics to discuss for Van Jefferson; however, his college dominator, target share, and breakout age metrics don’t bode well for his probability of becoming a top fantasy football producer.

 

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11 hours ago, massraider said:

This guy should change his name to Tape v Analytics.

 

By the way: 

Why is it, exactly, that there is no discussion of fantasy metrics in the Shark Pool?  Very weird.

Its basically because he didn't produce enough yards and catches at the college level compared to other prospects. He doesn't meet things like breakout age or market share. He is an older rookie who will turn 24 in July. Did not declare for the draft as a JR because not good enough production to get a high recommendation.

As far as combine metrics we have nothing there either since they discovered he had a jones fracture in his foot during XRays and he elected to have surgery to fix it and did not do any of the drills. I already mentioned that he was timed as fast at the senior bowl, before he knew he had the injury.

So putting this all together, maybe it seems less weird that he didn't have a thread already? There wasn't much to talk about regarding him unless you watched him and thought he was good.

Pick 57 is a pretty high investment and counters concerns people may have about his college stats and age in my view, although some may still want to follow the analytics concerning him.

I think he is less interesting for fantasy football than he is for real football. Maybe he is only a Adam Humphries or Tajae Sharpe type of WR prospect.

 

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He's actually a better version of Josh Reynolds compared to when he was a prospect.  I don't particularly like him a lot but he'll have a role for a few years, then he'll get pushed down a depth chart.  I tend to stay away from 2-3 year role players (in my own eval), especially at WR, unless it's deep dart throw in the 4th or later.  The RB's you can make a case for because if they hit they're instantly somewhat valuable, the WR's if they slightly produce they just linger.  In rookie drafts he gets pushed down be almost every single RB taken and even some UDFA guys I had ahead of him prior to the draft.  

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Positives: Strong senior bowl week.  Regarded as one of the better router runners in the draft, polished,  speed to go along with route running.

Negatives: older and college production left you wanting more.

I could have cut and pasted the comments above and used it to describe Van Jeffereson or Terry McLaurin last year.

 

Edited by menobrown
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8 hours ago, Faust said:
28 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

 

As far as combine metrics we have nothing there either

There are no workout metrics to discuss for Van Jefferson;

We got this though.

Florida WR @VanJefferson12 couldn’t run the 40 at Combine (foot injury) but @ZebraTechnology had him as fastest player at the @seniorbowl with max speed of 21.05 mph, which is faster than Devin Duvernay (20.90/4.39), Denzel Mims (20.26/4.38), and Antonio Gibson (20.15/4.39).

ETA the above was a tweet from Jim Nagy.

Edited by menobrown
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40 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Its basically because he didn't produce enough yards and catches at the college level compared to other prospects. He doesn't meet things like breakout age or market share. He is an older rookie who will turn 24 in July. Did not declare for the draft as a JR because not good enough production to get a high recommendation.

I know why the analytics guys don't like him.  I do know that the 'tape' guys do like him.  That was my point, where people stand on him depends on what side of the fence they are on.  

Here's my red flag:  When listing off pros and cons, and really early in the argument it's: Well, the Rams took him there, they must really like him, I am worried.  (It's like Chase Claypool. Pros: 1. OMG, Combine  2. Steelers are really good at drafting WR.  I'm out.)  Draft capital matters when deciding between Isaiah Hodgins and Van Jefferson. Don't be dumb, take the 2nd round pick. But a 3rd round WR? I'll take my chances that the Rams reached dramatically. 

 

You could avoid this guy SIMPLY because of how old he is, and have a strong case, backed up by data. Not to mention that Jefferson as a 2nd rounder was a dramatic reach, going by consensus. Not really sure why the Rams aren't getting dragged. He was a coach's son? Big deal.  That was a reach.

 

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9 minutes ago, massraider said:

I know why the analytics guys don't like him.  I do know that the 'tape' guys do like him.  That was my point, where people stand on him depends on what side of the fence they are on.  

Here's my red flag:  When listing off pros and cons, and really early in the argument it's: Well, the Rams took him there, they must really like him, I am worried.  (It's like Chase Claypool. Pros: 1. OMG, Combine  2. Steelers are really good at drafting WR.  I'm out.)  Draft capital matters when deciding between Isaiah Hodgins and Van Jefferson. Don't be dumb, take the 2nd round pick. But a 3rd round WR? I'll take my chances that the Rams reached dramatically. 

 

You could avoid this guy SIMPLY because of how old he is, and have a strong case, backed up by data. Not to mention that Jefferson as a 2nd rounder was a dramatic reach, going by consensus. Not really sure why the Rams aren't getting dragged. He was a coach's son? Big deal.  That was a reach.

 

Yeah I agree that Jefferson is a terrific example of the dichotomy between analytics and just watching the player do football things.

I have been on both sides of that although I am still more comfortable with analytics than I am my own subjective opinion of watching the players. Most of my time here in the SP I would have people telling me to actually watch the players, although recently I had someone think I do not look at the numbers? rotfl

I care about the Vikings. I would not have picked Jefferson for them if I didn't think he could start. They need a WR to start. I believe in Van Jeferson being able to do that. I still would have taken Tyler Johnson ahead of Van Jefferson because he produced a ton more at the college level. 

I am not sure if I understand your red flag completely?

The Rams have done all the analytics that we could do and then some. They came to the conclusion that Van Jefferson was worth a 2nd round pick, pick 57 to be exact. They selected him before Denzel Mims is the real eye opener to me. I think Mims is a better overall player, has more upside than Jefferson, but it may be that Jefferson fits what they want to do on offense than Mims does. They like to run a lot of stuff horizontally.

I don't think the draft pick invalidates the other concerns about Jeffersons production. I do not find myself agreeing with things the Rams do in the draft either. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that they know about the college production age and so on yet still valued him enough to make him a 2nd round pick.

One thing to consider with the current situation of training camp and so on being up in the air, I think a player like Jefferson is more ready to contribute right away than most of the WR in the 2020 draft class. What I question is Jeffersons upside as a stat producer for fantasy football, because he didn't do that much in college. The Rams have different goals in how they use their draft picks than we do.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Positives: Strong senior bowl week.  Regarded as one of the better router runners in the draft, polished,  speed to go along with route running.

Negatives: older and college production left you wanting more.

I could have cut and pasted the comments above and used it to describe Van Jeffereson or Terry McLaurin last year.

 

That’s why I’m pausing and maybe giving him another look since I missed on McLaurin in dynasty last year. 

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35 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

Difference being Wash passing targets were wide open and Rams have established trio of pass catchers already, so he’d be 4th barring injury. 

Agree on this, which is why we may need to be patient this year. I think if he shows well Kupp may not be re-signed and he could slide into his role.

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He reminds me more of Robert Woods than he does Cooper Kupp.

Kupp has been a target hog and highly productive at the college and pro level.

Rams personnel groupings are almost all 3 WR or 2 WR 2 TE according to this no other team has as many white spaces for different personnel groupings as the Rams in 2019.

I was reading some interesting stuff about how the Patriots used a 6-1 alignment against the Rams running game and play action in the SB and then almost every team they played last season used the same thing against them. Its still a 4-3 defense but the ends play inside shade while the outside LB cover the outside gaps. Its a defense that is really popular in college football right now as well.

The Rams answer to this was to play 2 TE. The defense has worked against them. They need to find ways to counter it.

Anyhow if the Rams still use 3 WR sets as their primary formation, there is opportunity for Jefferson to work his way into that rotation, even if Reynolds is ahead of him right now.

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19 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He reminds me more of Robert Woods than he does Cooper Kupp.

 

I've seen this, and also seen him compared to a combo of the two, which I think is a good thing. 

IIRC both Kupp and Reynolds are free agents next season, so there's opportunity for sure. 

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Positives: Strong senior bowl week.  Regarded as one of the better router runners in the draft, polished,  speed to go along with route running.

Negatives: older and college production left you wanting more.

I could have cut and pasted the comments above and used it to describe Van Jeffereson or Terry McLaurin last year.

 

McLaurin at least tested bonkers to bring some hype, Jefferson was what the 4th or 5th best WR at the senior bowl and had hype from coach speak from his father?  And McLaurin was on a very crowded Ohio State team with C. Samuel, Campbell, Dobbins, KJ Hill for a few years.  

Jefferson was crowded during his freshman and sophomore years with AJ Brown and Metcalf at Ole Miss, but at Miami?  You'd think he learn something from those 2 but in his last 2 years at Miami with very little competition didn't do much.  All I'm saying is that you can see how McLaurin fell under the radar a bit and after the combine it picked up a little.  Jefferson has underwhelmed at every single stop during his 4 years in college and his pre-draft process.  

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Just now, Zyphros said:

McLaurin at least tested bonkers to bring some hype, Jefferson was what the 4th or 5th best WR at the senior bowl and had hype from coach speak from his father?  And McLaurin was on a very crowded Ohio State team with C. Samuel, Campbell, Dobbins, KJ Hill for a few years.  

Jefferson was crowded during his freshman and sophomore years with AJ Brown and Metcalf at Ole Miss, but at Miami?  You'd think he learn something from those 2 but in his last 2 years at Miami with very little competition didn't do much.  All I'm saying is that you can see how McLaurin fell under the radar a bit and after the combine it picked up a little.  Jefferson has underwhelmed at every single stop during his 4 years in college and his pre-draft process.  

Jefferson getting clocked at over 21 MPH means more to me than running a fast 40 at the combine. You may not agree, that's ok.  Calling him the 4th or 5th best WR is purely subjective and nothing in my evaluation of him has a thing to do with what his father says and for that matter  I had no idea his father said anything. FWIW he got on my radar before the Senior Bowl when I heard Krisitan Fulton in an interview in January get asked who was the most difficult WR he faced  and he said Van Jefferson. So I started digging into him, he was even my 28th round special in FFPC best balls back in January before he broke his foot and I got irked.

McLaurin underwhelmed his entire college career. So did Van Jefferson at Ole Miss and  Florida(not Miami). But at least Jefferson had a bigger target share which to me is pretty relative to maximizing the situation you were in but to be fair the talent around does matter and McClaurin had more to contend with. You say Jefferson did  nothing but relative to that pitiful passing game he played on I thought he did better then McLaurin. But now we are target share vs the quality of people you got to share targets with debate, could go on and on with but hard really to know what the other might have done in if they switched position.  Just fair to say both underwhelmed.

Different programs, QB's and schemes makes comparing players in college difficult. But I stand on what I said earlier. Like McLaurin Jefferson is a fast runner with top notch route running skills ,  both unimpressed in college and neither gets much hype from dynasty people.  Between the two one of them managed to still make it to round two of a loaded WR class despite coming off a broke foot but I don't even read to much into that, players are like Ice Cream, different flavors for different teams. But I'm still surprised that once the Rams made a fairly sizeable investment via draft capital in Jefferson his hype and ADP remain super low. I personally think he's the best value among rookie WR's in dynasty drafts and I say that knowing my drafts are almost over and he went late 3rd-into late 4th in all my drafts.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

LOts of junk on your roster? lol. I can't wait 3 years on JJAW for example

Funny bc guys like you dropped DJ Chark last year with strategies like this while I scooped him up for free.

Edited by Terpman22
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Even if you like Jefferson, where do you rank him in this  WR group?  I'm not sure there is too much variance in his value, even if you don't like him.  

I'm pretty sure I lean towards the analytics side, and I still would take him over Hamler and Claypool.  Maybe in a tier with Edwards. 

Anyone like him  more than Shenault? Mims? These are all 2nd rounders. If not, I'm not sure the Jeferson truthers and haters are too different in where he falls. 

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54 minutes ago, massraider said:

Even if you like Jefferson, where do you rank him in this  WR group?  I'm not sure there is too much variance in his value, even if you don't like him.  

I'm pretty sure I lean towards the analytics side, and I still would take him over Hamler and Claypool.  Maybe in a tier with Edwards. 

Anyone like him  more than Shenault? Mims? These are all 2nd rounders. If not, I'm not sure the Jeferson truthers and haters are too different in where he falls. 

I would put him right behind Mims.  But in my league there were 13 picks between Mims and Jefferson, so that is a lot of other guys that slotted in between.

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This has been a really good thread to read. Lots of good info from good posters. I don’t have much that’s different from the consensus- really really good route runner, good hands. Questions about his athletic ability. I don’t see good speed on tape but the senior bowl time helps some. I’m more of a production guy myself but the lack there is somewhat offset by his draft capital. It seems usually these low production/high capital guys are high end athletes who haven’t yet figured out the more skilled aspects to translate that on to the field but he doesn’t fit that mold. Interesting guy to break down. I could see a style similar to Diontae Johnson. I see the Woods comps. A high end comp could be Keenan Allen.

 

The perceived crowded landing spot I think is a big factor in his falling in drafts but as mentioned that clears out quickly. Kupp, Reynolds, Everett are FAs after this year and Woods the year after that. Good chance they lose 3 of those 4 the next couple years.

 

I have him at 19 in my overall rankings. Just behind Edwards. Ahead of my boy Tyler Johnson because I can’t ignore going 3 rounds earlier. I got him at 30 in the only draft I’ve done so far.

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17 hours ago, massraider said:

Even if you like Jefferson, where do you rank him in this  WR group?  I'm not sure there is too much variance in his value, even if you don't like him.  

I'm pretty sure I lean towards the analytics side, and I still would take him over Hamler and Claypool.  Maybe in a tier with Edwards. 

Anyone like him  more than Shenault? Mims? These are all 2nd rounders. If not, I'm not sure the Jeferson truthers and haters are too different in where he falls. 

Given the draft capital and the situation, he moved up from about WR18 to WR10 in my rankings after the NFL draft.  I took him at 3.1 in one draft and he went 3.6 in my other draft. 

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It's unclear if we should take being the son of a NFL WR and WRs coach to be a good sign or a bad sign. The story where it's a bad sign is that he had the training to do some of the things that coaches & scouts like to see in practice and on tape, but that wasn't enough to translate into particularly good performance and now he's much closer than most rookie WRs are to being maxed out on savvy or polish. I'm reminded of 2nd round WR Brian Robiskie, who had a similar background and this scouting report:

Quote

It's no surprise this Buckeye appears to have very good knowledge of the game, being the son of long-time NFL player and coach Terry Robiskie. While Brian Robiskie has the reliable route-running and hands one might expect considering his father's tutelage, he has built his own reputation as a surprisingly fluid athlete for a prospect of his size.

Robiskie took a major step in his climb from special teams ace as a freshman to star receiver in 2007 when he caught 55 catches for 935 yards (17.0-yard avg.) and 11 touchdowns in his junior season. His production as a senior declined (42-535-8) due to changes in Ohio State's offense, but a solid week of practice at the Senior Bowl reassured scouts that Robiskie, while not the game-breaker of some of his peers, may be the most NFL-ready receiver of the 2009 draft. Had an arm span of 31 1/2 inches and a hand span of 9 5/8 inches at the combine.

Except Robiskie's junior year was actually good.

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Drafted Tyler Johnson ahead of him in our draft at 4.07, in between Duvernay at 4.06 and Jefferson at 4.08. That Jefferson fell so far surprised me, but I was really scared away by his college production on two quality teams.

It'a an IDP league where you start nine guys on defense, in case anyone is wondering why those three are so low. Move it up about 3/4 round if you want just offensive guys. 

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Jared Goff compared second-round rookie WR Van Jefferson to Cooper Kupp.

Goff's full quote, "He's been really impressive and has done a good job. It reminds me a lot of when Kupp was a rookie. He was just so far ahead of where a rookie kind of should be." Jefferson was a mildly shocking second-round pick due to his age (24) and questionable college production, but he's someone scouts have talked up because of his route running and the fact that his dad was a 13-year NFL veteran. The Rams have 126 available targets with Brandin Cooks traded and others missing, but Jefferson is merely competing for the No. 3 receiver role with Josh Reynolds at this point. Jefferson could become an intriguing name next offseason if Kupp isn't re-signed.

Aug 18, 2020, 9:01 PM ET

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

There's your puff piece to sell for whatever you can get

There should be other opportunities in the next couple years to sell higher as Kupp, Woods, Reynolds, Everett all reach the end of their deals. Unless you think he just isn’t good in which case I wouldn’t think he’d be on that many rosters of people with that opinion of him. 

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