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2020 College football thread - It's the offseason, yo.


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On 1/12/2021 at 9:19 AM, gump said:

From a Sales perspective, it was surprisingly solid. Obvious retail channels like Dept Stores who weren’t open struggled, and generally brick and mortar was soft especially around college towns...but E-com was massive and overall the year was good enough to keep most vendors afloat...all expecting a big ‘21. Bama was bigger than LSU via E-com, so while OSU would have been huge it’s still a solid end to the craziest year ever.

Lowest rated BCS or CFB title game ever, by a substantial margin. Complete ratings disaster. 
 

“There's no sugar-coating the number, 18.7M is far below any BCS or CFP title game. The previous low was the USC blowout of Oklahoma in the 2005 edition at 21.419M. ”

The sport will be fine (since they don’t pay players!) and they will still make their money but the sport is now stagnant and not growing any further. 

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After paying his dues, my son gets to finally officially cover Gator football. @alligatorSports: Football writer @Bfarrell727 breaks down DC Todd Grantham's two-pronged defensive strategy and how

There is also great optimism outside Michigan that the deal gets wrapped up soon. 

Between Notre Dame and Dabo today Jesus has to really be rethinking his corporate sponsorships......

14 hours ago, culdeus said:

When do they take that number? I punched out at halftime like I assume many did

If they are Nielsen numbers, probably total number of people that spent at least 15 minutes.  Each person that they in their survey group counts for about 100k people in the US.

If it was from ESPN app/web, then ESPN would have control and probably use every IP that started watching at any time during the game.

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53 minutes ago, Capella said:

Lowest rated BCS or CFB title game ever, by a substantial margin. Complete ratings disaster. 
 

“There's no sugar-coating the number, 18.7M is far below any BCS or CFP title game. The previous low was the USC blowout of Oklahoma in the 2005 edition at 21.419M. ”

The sport will be fine (since they don’t pay players!) and they will still make their money but the sport is now stagnant and not growing any further. 

Think of the alienated fanbases in the recent 10 years.

Nebraska, Michigan, every single Pac10 team maybe less Oregon, Every Big12 team less OU.  

How do you as a fan of those teams feel or get engaged in the process knowing it's hopeless.  There's a whole network dedicated to a team that hasn't been relevant since the Bush administration.  The landscape has shifted so fast in the last 10 years, that you can't really get motivated to care to see if this year it's Bama or someone else.  

I feel like the whole thing about college football that was fun, was there was parity across the mid-levels and the regional rivalries meant more.  Now you try to incorporate national games with the playoffs and the regional stuff has lost meaning except that it can derail a title run.  

It's why the NFL has a broad fan base.  There's a sense that you can win.  If you are a fan of Michigan or Texas, do you really feel like you are in that position?  

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56 minutes ago, Capella said:

Lowest rated BCS or CFB title game ever, by a substantial margin. Complete ratings disaster. 
 

“There's no sugar-coating the number, 18.7M is far below any BCS or CFP title game. The previous low was the USC blowout of Oklahoma in the 2005 edition at 21.419M. ”

The sport will be fine (since they don’t pay players!) and they will still make their money but the sport is now stagnant and not growing any further. 

The ratings were very low no question.  But are you going to use the pandemic year to project the future of this sport (and presumably all sports)?  I think I'll wait before using the most unusual year of our lifetime as a barometer for future success.  To put it in perspective, even though the numbers were way down, here's what the top broadcast shows had to offer:

On the broadcast networks, The Bachelor led primetime with 4.74 million viewers and the Good Doctor returned with 4.06 million viewers. Outside of college football coverage, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show was the most watched cable show with 4.22 million viewers. The first hour of WWE Monday Night Raw on USA (0.62) and Cuomo Prime Time on CNN (0.58) led the non-football offerings in the 18-49 demographic.

If you put a nail in college football, what would you say for the rest of TV?  With the continued growth of cord cutting, ratings have and will continue to lose power.  There are other factors to be considered.

Now, I can agree that it is arguable that nearly all sports have reached a zenith in their popularity and future growth will likely fluctuate between flat and small increases/decreases on an annual basis.  But I wouldn't use the ratings results of one game in a pandemic as the crux of my argument.

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The Big 3 make up 80% of the US sports business.  They're all massive, and aren't really planning domestic growth.  The growth opp is Internationally...and College has less of one there than the NFL and MLB.  That's really just Americana brands like Texas, and pockets like Notre Dame in Ireland.

No one is really concerned about the College business, especially with NIL rights kicking in soon.  There will reductions in campuses and sports but not in the big schools. I think it's just moving pieces of the pie from school to school and segment to segment.

For example, traditional retail is way down due to Covid obviously.  But the E-Com numbers are way up, including CFP Champ...with is currently running +60+% to LSU '20, +150+% to Clemson '19, and even +80+% to Bama's last one in '18.

 

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4 minutes ago, gump said:

The Big 3 make up 80% of the US sports business.  They're all massive, and aren't really planning domestic growth.  The growth opp is Internationally...and College has less of one there than the NFL and MLB.  That's really just Americana brands like Texas, and pockets like Notre Dame in Ireland.

No one is really concerned about the College business, especially with NIL rights kicking in soon.  There will reductions in campuses and sports but not in the big schools. I think it's just moving pieces of the pie from school to school and segment to segment.

For example, traditional retail is way down due to Covid obviously.  But the E-Com numbers are way up, including CFP Champ...with is currently running +60+% to LSU '20, +150+% to Clemson '19, and even +80+% to Bama's last one in '18.

 

With respect to your profession, e-com is not an accurate measure of a sport’s currently popularity. Of course Alabama fans are buying championship gear, that doesn’t really measure at all.  

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46 minutes ago, Corporation said:

The ratings were very low no question.  But are you going to use the pandemic year to project the future of this sport (and presumably all sports)?  I think I'll wait before using the most unusual year of our lifetime as a barometer for future success.  To put it in perspective, even though the numbers were way down, here's what the top broadcast shows had to offer:

On the broadcast networks, The Bachelor led primetime with 4.74 million viewers and the Good Doctor returned with 4.06 million viewers. Outside of college football coverage, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show was the most watched cable show with 4.22 million viewers. The first hour of WWE Monday Night Raw on USA (0.62) and Cuomo Prime Time on CNN (0.58) led the non-football offerings in the 18-49 demographic.

If you put a nail in college football, what would you say for the rest of TV?  With the continued growth of cord cutting, ratings have and will continue to lose power.  There are other factors to be considered.

Now, I can agree that it is arguable that nearly all sports have reached a zenith in their popularity and future growth will likely fluctuate between flat and small increases/decreases on an annual basis.  But I wouldn't use the ratings results of one game in a pandemic as the crux of my argument.

Why would the assumption be that these fans come back post-covid? TVs still work during a pandemic. 

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

With respect to your profession, e-com is not an accurate measure of a sport’s currently popularity. Of course Alabama fans are buying championship gear, that doesn’t really measure at all.  

It's just an example of moving pieces of the total around.  E-Com should settle around a third of the total.  Brick and mortar expects the College business to be back to pre-Covid numbers by late '21 and definitely '22.

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20 minutes ago, Capella said:
1 hour ago, Corporation said:

The ratings were very low no question.  But are you going to use the pandemic year to project the future of this sport (and presumably all sports)?  I think I'll wait before using the most unusual year of our lifetime as a barometer for future success.  To put it in perspective, even though the numbers were way down, here's what the top broadcast shows had to offer:

On the broadcast networks, The Bachelor led primetime with 4.74 million viewers and the Good Doctor returned with 4.06 million viewers. Outside of college football coverage, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show was the most watched cable show with 4.22 million viewers. The first hour of WWE Monday Night Raw on USA (0.62) and Cuomo Prime Time on CNN (0.58) led the non-football offerings in the 18-49 demographic.

If you put a nail in college football, what would you say for the rest of TV?  With the continued growth of cord cutting, ratings have and will continue to lose power.  There are other factors to be considered.

Now, I can agree that it is arguable that nearly all sports have reached a zenith in their popularity and future growth will likely fluctuate between flat and small increases/decreases on an annual basis.  But I wouldn't use the ratings results of one game in a pandemic as the crux of my argument.

Why would the assumption be that these fans come back post-covid? TVs still work during a pandemic. 

NFL ratings (overall, not a 1 game sample size) fell from 17.9 million in 2015 to 14.9 million in 2017 (a 16.8% drop). Ratings rebounded to 16.5 in 2019.  In 2020, ratings were down another 7%, and according to Sportico ratings were down for the NFL playoff games 25% on Saturday and 20% on Sunday.  I'm not arguing that college football is bigger than the NFL because it is clearly not.  TVs work during a pandemic for NFL football as well but we've seen large declines.  As I also mentioned, I'm not sure how much more room for there is for any top line sport to grow, they are in the business of maintenance and attracting the next generation to stay steady.  But I'm not ready to say these sports are done because of ratings in a pandemic.  Links for stats:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/289979/nfl-number-of-tv-viewers-usa/

https://twitter.com/crupicrupicrupi/status/1349016470605463553

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11 minutes ago, Corporation said:

NFL ratings (overall, not a 1 game sample size) fell from 17.9 million in 2015 to 14.9 million in 2017 (a 16.8% drop). Ratings rebounded to 16.5 in 2019.  In 2020, ratings were down another 7%, and according to Sportico ratings were down for the NFL playoff games 25% on Saturday and 20% on Sunday.  I'm not arguing that college football is bigger than the NFL because it is clearly not.  TVs work during a pandemic for NFL football as well but we've seen large declines.  As I also mentioned, I'm not sure how much more room for there is for any top line sport to grow, they are in the business of maintenance and attracting the next generation to stay steady.  But I'm not ready to say these sports are done because of ratings in a pandemic.  Links for stats:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/289979/nfl-number-of-tv-viewers-usa/

https://twitter.com/crupicrupicrupi/status/1349016470605463553

Right but the nfl is #1, the nfl and #2 they have parity. Like @culdeus mentioned above, if you are a fan of an irrelevant CFB program that hasn’t won anything in two decades like say, Florida, what point is there for you to continue watching these games?

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23 minutes ago, Capella said:

Right but the nfl is #1, the nfl and #2 they have parity. Like @culdeus mentioned above, if you are a fan of an irrelevant CFB program that hasn’t won anything in two decades like say, Florida, what point is there for you to continue watching these games?

I understand.  I'm trying to tell all the young people around here to really enjoy this, because this is a once in a lifetime blip with the dynasty at Alabama.  6 in 12 years is just unbelievable.  I believe parity will return (people were writing off Saban after the blowout loss to Clemson and missing the CFB last year).  This is just a most unusual time. Don't forget the decades we were an also ran with our various Mike coaches (DuBose, Price, Shula).  Things will turn around but I'm enjoying the ride while it lasts.

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14 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

You ever look at his NFL stats?  They're Craig Krenzel level bad.

Your joke sensor is broken GB. 

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19 hours ago, Corporation said:

I understand.  I'm trying to tell all the young people around here to really enjoy this, because this is a once in a lifetime blip with the dynasty at Alabama.  6 in 12 years is just unbelievable.  I believe parity will return (people were writing off Saban after the blowout loss to Clemson and missing the CFB last year).  This is just a most unusual time. Don't forget the decades we were an also ran with our various Mike coaches (DuBose, Price, Shula).  Things will turn around but I'm enjoying the ride while it lasts.

There is no doubt of this...Saban is a mile ahead of everyone else at this point as the GOAT.  We'll never see anything like this again.  I liked this article about how he 'broke' the game by flipping his offensive philosophy, and warned everyone he was going to do it.

But Florida, Texas, USC, Michigan will all be back at the top at some point too.

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I watched about 30 total seconds of non-CFP bowl games this year, down from probably 20-30 hours during a normal season. Everything just felt weird this time around with the cancelations and I didn't bother to put much thought into who was actually playing, which matchups were worth watching, etc. 

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22 hours ago, culdeus said:

If you are a fan of Michigan or Texas, do you really feel like you are in that position?  

Can't speak for Texas, but #### no as a Michigan fan/grad....but that has nothing to do with the "setup"....it's the consistently stupid decisions the athletic department makes as they apparently think this is still 1980.

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32 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Can't speak for Texas, but #### no as a Michigan fan/grad....but that has nothing to do with the "setup"....it's the consistently stupid decisions the athletic department makes as they apparently think this is still 1980.

Texas is more or less one generational qb from being in that same situation.  

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On 1/13/2021 at 10:06 AM, culdeus said:

Think of the alienated fanbases in the recent 10 years.

Nebraska, Michigan, every single Pac10 team maybe less Oregon, Every Big12 team less OU.  

How do you as a fan of those teams feel or get engaged in the process knowing it's hopeless.  There's a whole network dedicated to a team that hasn't been relevant since the Bush administration.  The landscape has shifted so fast in the last 10 years, that you can't really get motivated to care to see if this year it's Bama or someone else.  

I feel like the whole thing about college football that was fun, was there was parity across the mid-levels and the regional rivalries meant more.  Now you try to incorporate national games with the playoffs and the regional stuff has lost meaning except that it can derail a title run.  

It's why the NFL has a broad fan base.  There's a sense that you can win.  If you are a fan of Michigan or Texas, do you really feel like you are in that position?  

I think of them and laugh 

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Last three margins, 28, 17, 28. Five of the last six CFB Championships had Alabama in them. While those things may be ok with Alabama fans, it has to be turning off casual viewers. COVID or not, ratings for that game were not going to be good. And on the whole, unless things change, I'd expect them to remain low until they do.

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On 1/13/2021 at 12:32 PM, Capella said:

 if you are a fan of an irrelevant CFB program that hasn’t won anything in two decades like say, Florida, what point is there for you to continue watching these games?

It's actually been 12 years, so really only one decade, but I know complex math like rounding isn't something they teach at FSU.😜

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20 minutes ago, scorchy said:

It's actually been 12 years, so really only one decade, but I know complex math like rounding isn't something they teach at FSU.😜

I believe we have crossed two decades now. :)

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40 minutes ago, Desert_Power said:

Ouch. Sounds like they are in quite some trouble at Ol Rocky Top. You hate to see it.

And to think they had a shot a Greg Schiano.  I mean, if you can bring Rutgers back from the dead, think what he could've done at UT.

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2 hours ago, SHIZNITTTT said:

REPORT: SEC Teams Have Spent $177.88 Million Buying Out Coaches Since Alabama Hired Nick Saban

UT will be on their 7th head coach alone during the Saban tenure at Bama.

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Pruitt isn’t going down without a fight:

Brett McMurphy⁦‪@Brett_McMurphy‬⁩

Statement provided to ⁦‪@Stadium‬⁩ from attorney Michael Lyons representing former Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt 

pic.twitter.com/mAgCsaOC6S

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On 1/18/2021 at 4:32 PM, Joe Bryant said:

Kevin Steele seems to be the guy lots of people here are talking about for the UT job. 

Sheesh. 9-36 (1-31 in conference play) during his one chance at head coaching. 

Sadly, that sounds about right. 

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did a twitter search on "Heupel" and I'm not sure what's funnier to me- the Vols fans who think their program is above the hire or the UCF fans happy to see him go, like their program deserves better 

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7 minutes ago, JaxBill said:

did a twitter search on "Heupel" and I'm not sure what's funnier to me- the Vols fans who think their program is above the hire or the UCF fans happy to see him go, like their program deserves better 

I know a lot of UCF fans in person and I can tell you, they are shocked he got the job. They all wanted him fired after last year. 

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55 minutes ago, Capella said:

I know a lot of UCF fans in person and I can tell you, they are shocked he got the job. They all wanted him fired after last year. 

I get that he's a definite step down from Frost but the mythical National title has gone to their heads. Some of them  believe they're a preeminent program that deserves and will draw a top notch coach.  Like this 

 

@UCFSportsInfo: UCF made Scott Frost, UCF made Josh Heupel

Who's the next guy that will benefit from being the UCF Head Coach?

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