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6.30.20 Your Guess On Chances The NFL Gets In 10 Regular Season Games


"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"  

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Just a headsup - Keep this 100% civil and cool here with zero snark or shots or victory laps.   

Is this a Political Forum thread now? If not, keep the Trump stuff out.

I'll say 100% for 10+ games. If it comes to it, I could see NFL players(and coaches etc.) being separated from the the public entirely. If the cost of doing that is still beaten out by the money made

Interesting developments with the implementation of the testing protocol. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/players-will-receive-daily-covid-19-tests-for-first-two-weeks-of-camp

One thing that's notable is that the players' union is actually winning here. Maybe the disease has humanized the players as people who are at risk, with families and loved ones at risk, and the owners can't just run over them the way they do in most negotiations. It will be interesting to see how that plays out as things start to get real. Thursday!

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On 7/7/2020 at 4:45 PM, Gally said:

Baseball has other issue that are hindering their start back up.  Primarily the big #### show between the owners and players.  That has been probably a bigger obstacle and the virus for baseball's problems in starting back up. 

I’m more convinced every day that zero games played is more likely than 10. I think I underestimated American incompetence. Even trump is changing his tune on masks, it’s only going to get worse and I don’t see how you can play football in the middle of this. 

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10 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

I’m more convinced every day that zero games played is more likely than 10. I think I underestimated American incompetence. Even trump is changing his tune on masks, it’s only going to get worse and I don’t see how you can play football in the middle of this. 

Yet MLB is doing just fine.  Less players but some world.

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1 hour ago, nittanylion said:

Right out of the gate, 59 Players have tested positive for C19. Not an auspicious start.

More than 2500 players will be in training camps. It is unclear what percentage have been tested, but 59 positives is around 2% of the total number of players. Doesn't seem like a big deal without more info.

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6 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

More than 2500 players will be in training camps. It is unclear what percentage have been tested, but 59 positives is around 2% of the total number of players. Doesn't seem like a big deal without more info.

Small number but this is about more than testing positive.  It is also about what happens when they are win camp or season and test positive.  How does it affect other players and coaches?  How does it impact product on the field?  And may most importantly, what about all the security and vendors and media, etc that surround the NFL?  

I'm not sure what this number means by itself.  Definitely better than 400 or something but this may be picking poison and dying a slow death.  

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19 hours ago, Dez said:

Yet MLB is doing just fine.  Less players but some world.

MLB, NHL and NBA are all doing great and it's my belief showing that it's actually safer in the teams facilities then normal outside world.

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3 hours ago, nittanylion said:

Right out of the gate, 59 Players have tested positive for C19. Not an auspicious start.

I have heard it posited that this number is cumulative to date, and not representative of current, active cases. 

Can anyone confirm or deny that?

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2 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Scott Wapner (CNBC) just reported that their remains a significant disagreement over money.  NFLPA wants to be paid for full season even if it ends up shortened.

Utterly ridiculous demand from the NFLPA.

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I am guessing the NFL is going to get in all 16 games.  Look at what the NBA did.  They are basically for the most part having almost all teams play their entire season and playoffs it just paused for 4+ months.  If for some reason the NFL has to stop mid season don't you think they will do the same thing ?  Why would they just throw their hands up in the air after 6 weeks and say season cancelled.  They would just push it back like the NBA and start again at some point.   Sure it sets everything else back like the NFL Draft and other stuff but that beats scrapping a season.  The NBA has pushed the NBA Draft back like 4-5 months.  It still is going to go on.

MONEY MONEY MONEY is why the NFL is going to have a season.

 

Over 50% predicted 5 games or less this year.  If this was a betting site I would be slamming the over 10 games and getting great odds based on what everyone else is betting.

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8 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

More than 2500 players will be in training camps. It is unclear what percentage have been tested, but 59 positives is around 2% of the total number of players. Doesn't seem like a big deal without more info.

1.2% of the American population has COVID (cumulative cases).

The NFL trending higher than a national situation that is widely perceived to be out of control is not encouraging.

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5 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

1.2% of the American population has COVID (cumulative cases).

The NFL trending higher than a national situation that is widely perceived to be out of control is not encouraging.

Not even close to a valid comparison.

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55 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:
1 hour ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

1.2% of the American population has COVID (cumulative cases).

The NFL trending higher than a national situation that is widely perceived to be out of control is not encouraging.

Not even close to a valid comparison.

Agreed. Let's test virtually 100% of the US population if you want to compare. I'd bet the cumulative number for the US is far closer to 4 or 5%

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54 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

1.2% of the American population has COVID (cumulative cases).

The NFL trending higher than a national situation that is widely perceived to be out of control is not encouraging.

Widely perceived by whom?  1.2% is NOT of the American population.  It's 1.2% of the American population who cared enough/were forced to be tested.  There are thousands who were asymptomatic that were positive.  Weird, huh?

It's all Blue vs Red.  Most of the NFL owners are Red at least economically.  They'll figure out a way to play 16.

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They’ll play at least 12. If there are major breakouts on teams they’ll rent hotels in each city and create 32 bubbles if they have to. The tv money is too much. 

Edited by Capella
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Football (Soccer) games in Europe have run for over a month now without any issues, many teams playing two games a week. Granted, teams are smaller, about 25 players first team on the roster, rather than the 53 on a NFL team, but there's many more teams here - 92 professional teams in the English league pyramid alone.  

Numerous tests have been conducted during that time with a few coming back positive, but this didn't stop games from being played. I'm not clear how each team dealt with a postive result, but there hasn't been any news of multiple players from one team. 

https://www.premierleague.com/news/1670563

So, I'd think that if common sense is followed, a professional sport in the USA should be no different from the rest of the world. 

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4 minutes ago, kerpow said:

Football (Soccer) games in Europe have run for over a month now without any issues, many teams playing two games a week. Granted, teams are smaller, about 25 players first team on the roster, rather than the 53 on a NFL team, but there's many more teams here - 92 professional teams in the English league pyramid alone.  

Numerous tests have been conducted during that time with a few coming back positive, but this didn't stop games from being played. I'm not clear how each team dealt with a postive result, but there hasn't been any news of multiple players from one team. 

https://www.premierleague.com/news/1670563

So, I'd think that if common sense is followed, a professional sport in the USA should be no different from the rest of the world. 

The people almost openly rooting for the NFL to fail, ignore things like this. In fairness a country like Germany handled the pandemic far better than we did, but in England it was just as much out of control and the EPL is doing fine. While football is more physical than soccer there is plenty of contact and closeness on the soccer pitch and these teams are also traveling from stadium to stadium.

Of course I'm  still not 100% convinced this NFL season goes off without a hitch,  but I do think as long as they are willing to accept that some people will get sick (just like people that have to work at Walmart and restaurants will) and get better it's not so far fetched that we see a full season.

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17 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Utterly ridiculous demand from the NFLPA.

Based on the terms of the CBA, the NFL never installed a policy as to what happens if there is an abbreviated season based on unforeseen circumstances. As the language reads currently, if the league plays even one game. the players are entitled to a full season of pay (remember, contracts become guaranteed for the entire season for all players on the Week 1 roster).

The league would have to negotiate with the NFLPA to create a Plan B (after the fact) to avoid paying players their full salaries no matter how many games are played this year. The only real "out" for the league is if no games are played at all, in which case teams would not be obligated to pay player salaries at all (it gets more complicated for player with guaranteed money due).

Of course, the league could push back and threaten to dramatically reduce the salary cap amount for next year, so the players do have an incentive to amend the CBA or create an alternative short term solution. But as things stand now, the players would be entitled to full pay if nothing changes.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The people almost openly rooting for the NFL to fail, ignore things like this. In fairness a country like Germany handled the pandemic far better than we did, but in England it was just as much out of control and the EPL is doing fine. While football is more physical than soccer there is plenty of contact and closeness on the soccer pitch and these teams are also traveling from stadium to stadium.

Of course I'm  still not 100% convinced this NFL season goes off without a hitch,  but I do think as long as they are willing to accept that some people will get sick (just like people that have to work at Walmart and restaurants will) and get better it's not so far fetched that we see a full season.

Part of the issue is that if the U.S. as a whole had responded to the virus as many other countries did, the virus would not still be a major problem. Also, soccer has been playing in front of empty arenas, while most NFL teams are planning to have 15,000-20,000 people in attendance. There is also a lot more distance to cover to play all the NFL games compared to most European soccer leagues. And soccer really hasn't tried playing in hot spots.

I agree with your premise that IF people take things more seriously AND they stay diligent and vigilant for 6 months, then the season could go on with (hopefully) only minor flare ups or issues. However, we are months and months into the pandemic and that hasn't really been the case (and much of that time, a lot of people were staying indoors and not traveling). So I am hoping for the best (but expecting things to go sideways at some point).

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2 hours ago, kerpow said:

Football (Soccer) games in Europe have run for over a month now without any issues, many teams playing two games a week. Granted, teams are smaller, about 25 players first team on the roster, rather than the 53 on a NFL team, but there's many more teams here - 92 professional teams in the English league pyramid alone.  

Numerous tests have been conducted during that time with a few coming back positive, but this didn't stop games from being played. I'm not clear how each team dealt with a postive result, but there hasn't been any news of multiple players from one team. 

https://www.premierleague.com/news/1670563

So, I'd think that if common sense is followed, a professional sport in the USA should be no different from the rest of the world. 

Uhhhhhhhh there are major differences between the US and the rest of the world when it comes to covid, common sense being pretty close to the top of the list. 

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

But as things stand now, the players would be entitled to full pay if nothing changes.

My speculation :tinfoilhat: is that owner(s) could have leaked the standoff expecting the public would react unsympathetically to player demands. Wapner has relationships with at least two owners  --- Snyder and Tepper.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

What difference does distance make? Especially since NFL teams use chartered flights.

Because they will be travelling across the country to places that are hot spots, no longer hot spots, or yet to be hit hard by the virus. So if the EPL is only playing relatively close to each other in England and things have mostly died down, they are less like to pick up the virus and spread it around. (IIRC, there were 769 newly reported infections in the UK yesterday . . . there were 72,000 new cases in the US.)

If an NFL team played in a hot spot (let's use ARI, CAL, TEX, or FLA as examples) and then move on to DEN, IND, KC, etc., that could help fuel an outbreak in a new location. And obviously the more the teams went to a hot spot, the greater the chances someone might get infected.

I still the think the best way to get a full season in would have been to go the bubble route, picking a remote area to import all the teams and players and having all the games played in that general region. But that appears to never have been a real consideration by the NFL.

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57 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Because they will be travelling across the country to places that are hot spots, no longer hot spots, or yet to be hit hard by the virus. So if the EPL is only playing relatively close to each other in England and things have mostly died down, they are less like to pick up the virus and spread it around. (IIRC, there were 769 newly reported infections in the UK yesterday . . . there were 72,000 new cases in the US.)

If an NFL team played in a hot spot (let's use ARI, CAL, TEX, or FLA as examples) and then move on to DEN, IND, KC, etc., that could help fuel an outbreak in a new location. And obviously the more the teams went to a hot spot, the greater the chances someone might get infected.

I still the think the best way to get a full season in would have been to go the bubble route, picking a remote area to import all the teams and players and having all the games played in that general region. But that appears to never have been a real consideration by the NFL.

OK, I follow on hot spots. I still say distance has nothing to do with it. Doesn't matter if the chartered flights fly 100 miles or 1000 miles... they get on the plane at point A and get off at point B.

As for the idea of a bubble for the NFL, it isn't really feasible. NFL teams travel with 140 people to road games. That is ~4500 people and does not include referees, league officials, media, or any of the people needed to support stadium operations, practice facilities, etc. An NFL bubble would need to include a large number of fields, practice facilities, meeting space, training rooms, medical facilities, etc., and probably well over 15K people. Maybe 20K, 25K, not sure. (And that is assuming you isolate all of the bubble people away from their families for the duration and have zero fans in attendance.)

They don't have time (or money) to construct such facilities, so where could that possibly be found in a "remote area" and be staffed appropriately? What the NBA is doing isn't even close to what the NFL would require.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

OK, I follow on hot spots. I still say distance has nothing to do with it. Doesn't matter if the chartered flights fly 100 miles or 1000 miles... they get on the plane at point A and get off at point B.

As for the idea of a bubble for the NFL, it isn't really feasible. NFL teams travel with 140 people to road games. That is ~4500 people and does not include referees, league officials, or any of the people needed to support stadium operations, practice facilities, etc. An NFL bubble would need to include a large number of fields, practice facilities, meeting space, training rooms, medical facilities, etc., and probably well over 15K people. Maybe 20K, 25K, not sure. (And that is assuming you isolate all of the bubble people away from their families for the duration.)

They don't have time (or money) to construct such facilities, so where could that possibly be found in a "remote area" and be staffed appropriately? What the NBA is doing isn't even close to what the NFL would require.

They probably would not have had to construct anything, as they could have picked a spot with several neighboring colleges that regularly house tens of thousands of students. Those schools would already have stadiums for games and plenty of fields to practice. Of course, they would have had to get the schools to go along with it (unlikely), which would have likely meant having all students go online learning for a semester.

But to get everyone onboard and agree to stay there for 4-6 months would have been highly improbably (families likely would not want to stay at a college for months and months). I'm not sure if the bubble concept would have been impossible, but it would be improbable or impractical.

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30 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:
37 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

As for the idea of a bubble for the NFL, it isn't really feasible. NFL teams travel with 140 people to road games. That is ~4500 people and does not include referees, league officials, or any of the people needed to support stadium operations, practice facilities, etc. An NFL bubble would need to include a large number of fields, practice facilities, meeting space, training rooms, medical facilities, etc., and probably well over 15K people. Maybe 20K, 25K, not sure. (And that is assuming you isolate all of the bubble people away from their families for the duration.)

They don't have time (or money) to construct such facilities, so where could that possibly be found in a "remote area" and be staffed appropriately? What the NBA is doing isn't even close to what the NFL would require.

They probably would not have had to construct anything, as they could have picked a spot with several neighboring colleges that regularly house tens of thousands of students. Those schools would already have stadiums for games and plenty of fields to practice. Of course, they would have had to get the schools to go along with it (unlikely), which would have likely meant having all students go online learning for a semester.

OK, but what you are describing is not a "remote area," which was part of what I responded to in your earlier post. To find a "spot with several neighboring colleges that regularly house tens of thousands of students and have stadiums for games" implies selecting a major city.

31 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

But to get everyone onboard and agree to stay there for 4-6 months would have been highly improbably (families likely would not want to stay at a college for months and months). I'm not sure if the bubble concept would have been impossible, but it would be improbable or impractical.

We agree that it is not a feasible concept.

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I think this notion of allowing ~20,000 fans in some stadiums and not others is a major barrier to this season getting started. I have no idea if the players union is talking about this, but I am not sure I can be convinced that number is a reasonable one. 

Now it has been mentioned that there would/could be a competitive imbalance because of this, but that's not the point I'm concerned with. My concern is that it isn't freaking safe with anything remotely close to that number of people attending. There is no way social distancing will be maintained, even assuming widespread mask compliance is in effect, which is a dubious assumption. The commish and or union is going to need to put the kabash on fans in the stands. The reduced numbers being thrown around are absurdly high. Mmmmmmaybe a couple thousand people. 

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20K people in the stands means you also are running concessions and putting a whole different class of worker at risk. It's one of the things I expected, given that everyone shares TV revenues but the teams get stadium revenues, but it makes everything a lot riskier.

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58 minutes ago, CalBear said:

20K people in the stands means you also are running concessions and putting a whole different class of worker at risk. It's one of the things I expected, given that everyone shares TV revenues but the teams get stadium revenues, but it makes everything a lot riskier.

Imagine putting people to work when they’re desperate for it.

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Sounds like money might derail this whole thing as they are talking now about delaying or canceling training camp if they can't work out the economic side.  Baseball crashed and burned for a long time before they worked out something so this is not a good thing.

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11 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Imagine putting people to work when they’re desperate for it.

The places which are succeeding against COVID-19 have paid people to stay home. It's a lot cheaper to do that than to treat people for COVID.

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I think its more about the fans than the players. Having even 15k people at a game would be absolutely nuts right now. If the NFL is willing to play behind closed doors, empty stadiums, I can't see any problems. Watch games on TV as the majority of fans do. It's only for one season, one hopes.

I would say its a bit weird watching a game without any fans. Some networks here give you the option to turn on or off piped crowd noises over the broadcast. They've obviously got some clever software that adjusts the artificial fan noise to align with what's happening in the game. That said, after 10 mins or so you forget about it as you're more focused on game play and commentary.

It will probably impact the NBA more as the fans sit so much closer to the court so will be more much more apparent to TV viewers.

 

Edited by kerpow
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On 7/22/2020 at 9:00 PM, Capella said:

They’ll play at least 12. 

12 games is a good fallback number to shoot for if the league gets to the point where they feel the regular season must be delayed.

The way the calendar works out, there are five Sundays in both November 2020 and January 2021. A 12-game regular season could start as late as Sunday November 1st and run through Sunday January 17th with no byes (or Sunday January 24th with one regular-season bye). The playoffs would take four consecutive weekends, with the weekend of January 24th being skipped if the regular season had no bye. That would put the Super Bowl on either Sunday February 21st or 28th depending on specific decisions made about byes. Either way, that would get a 12-game regular season plus playoffs and Super Bowl completed before the end of February and in time to avoid bleeding into the next league year.

Furthermore, turning a 16-game schedule into a 12-game schedule can be straightforward -- simply drop the inter-conference games.

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7 minutes ago, Doug B said:

12 games is a good fallback number to shoot for if the league gets to the point where they feel the regular season must be delayed.

The way the calendar works out, there are five Sundays in both November 2020 and January 2021. A 12-game regular season could start as late as Sunday November 1st and run through Sunday January 17th with no byes (or Sunday January 24th with one regular-season bye). The playoffs would take four consecutive weekends, with the weekend of January 24th being skipped if the regular season had no bye. That would put the Super Bowl on either Sunday February 21st or 28th depending on specific decisions made about byes. Either way, that would get a 12-game regular season plus playoffs and Super Bowl completed before the end of February and in time to avoid bleeding into the next league year.

Furthermore, turning a 16-game schedule into a 12-game schedule can be straightforward -- simply drop the inter-conference games.

Exactly. And by that point if it gets bad they’ll go to 32 bubbles. 

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16 hours ago, Dez said:

Sounds like money might derail this whole thing as they are talking now about delaying or canceling training camp if they can't work out the economic side.  Baseball crashed and burned for a long time before they worked out something so this is not a good thing.

Anybody have a link for this? Not asking in a an aggressive way - I just want something to show the Owners in the Dyn League I run. All I can find is a yahoo! story, and I'm not a fan of sourcing them. Thanks!

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

12 games is a good fallback number to shoot for if the league gets to the point where they feel the regular season must be delayed.

The way the calendar works out, there are five Sundays in both November 2020 and January 2021. A 12-game regular season could start as late as Sunday November 1st and run through Sunday January 17th with no byes (or Sunday January 24th with one regular-season bye). The playoffs would take four consecutive weekends, with the weekend of January 24th being skipped if the regular season had no bye. That would put the Super Bowl on either Sunday February 21st or 28th depending on specific decisions made about byes. Either way, that would get a 12-game regular season plus playoffs and Super Bowl completed before the end of February and in time to avoid bleeding into the next league year.

Furthermore, turning a 16-game schedule into a 12-game schedule can be straightforward -- simply drop the inter-conference games.

Changing the schedule from 16 to 12 games would have to happen before the season started. There are out of conference games starting in Week 2. To make things more complicated, there are weeks where the weekly schedule has divisional, conference, and out of conference games. Obviously it becomes problematic once games have been played to decide to roll with in conference games only.

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3 minutes ago, nittanylion said:

Anybody have a link for this? Not asking in a an aggressive way - I just want something to show the Owners in the Dyn League I run. All I can find is a yahoo! story, and I'm not a fan of sourcing them. Thanks!

NFL owners might consider halting training camps if there’s no deal on economics with players

Report: NFL, NFLPA Could Delay Training Camp Start Without Financial Deal

As talks get contentious, NFL team owners open to 'all options' in next 72 hours – including halting training camp

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Sounds like there were strides made tonight on the economic front.

The players' board of representatives voted to adopt the proposed changes to the CBA by a count of 29-3, according to a statement from the NFLPA.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-nflpa-agree-to-revised-cba-salary-cap-details-training-camp-timeline-roster-size-and-more-to-know/

 

 

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On 7/22/2020 at 8:50 PM, menobrown said:

MLB, NHL and NBA are all doing great and it's my belief showing that it's actually safer in the teams facilities then normal outside world.

The NBA is trying to keep track of ~360 players inside a bubble. Even then they couldn't stop a guy from sneaking out to a strip club on the way back from a funeral....

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-investigating-clippers-pg-lou-williams-trip-to-strip-club-after-exiting-bubble-003443762.html

This is before one NBA regular season game could resume.

But the NFL is going to keep track of ~1500 players traversing the "normal outside world" every week to get from one team facility to the next? If I were a multi-millionaire I could sit in the house associated with that type of income and with the toys associated with that type of income and feel much safer than anybody traveling with 140 co-workers around the country every week. 

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11 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

The NBA is trying to keep track of ~360 players inside a bubble. Even then they couldn't stop a guy from sneaking out to a strip club on the way back from a funeral....

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-investigating-clippers-pg-lou-williams-trip-to-strip-club-after-exiting-bubble-003443762.html

This is before one NBA regular season game could resume.

But the NFL is going to keep track of ~1500 players traversing the "normal outside world" every week to get from one team facility to the next? If I were a multi-millionaire I could sit in the house associated with that type of income and with the toys associated with that type of income and feel much safer than anybody traveling with 140 co-workers around the country every week. 

He went to Magic City for dinner.

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1 minute ago, Mystery Achiever said:

And now 12 Marlins players, 2 Marlins coaches test positive. Phillies and Marlins games for tonight both postponed.

Phillies and NYC also postponed.

This is a sobering reality check to what was otherwise seemed like positive movement from other sports re-opening.

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11 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Phillies and NYC also postponed.

This is a sobering reality check to what was otherwise seemed like positive movement from other sports re-opening.

Lowering my guess to 0%, unless they implement some sort of bubble like NBA. And even then I’m skeptical. 

too many billions on the line for them to not try though. 

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