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6.30.20 Your Guess On Chances The NFL Gets In 10 Regular Season Games


"What percent chance do you think it is that NFL will get at least 10 regular season games in?"  

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Just a headsup - Keep this 100% civil and cool here with zero snark or shots or victory laps.   

Is this a Political Forum thread now? If not, keep the Trump stuff out.

I'll say 100% for 10+ games. If it comes to it, I could see NFL players(and coaches etc.) being separated from the the public entirely. If the cost of doing that is still beaten out by the money made

Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is dealing with myocarditis after contracting COVID. Just a reminder that just because these guys are young, doesn’t mean complications short of death can’t result. Given the high BMI of a lot of NFL players I truly fear for their safety. 

Edited by fruity pebbles
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I don't remember where I voted originally but I'm changing my vote to 0% chance that they get 10 games in.  I don't think they'll cancel the season before it's even started though.  There's too much money out there for them not to at least try but 10 games sounds like a very tall order

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The latest baseball news doesn't make me feel good but I am still stick with football will get 10+ games in. 

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The backlash to the Marlins deciding to play when they knew they were infected is going to have ripple effects. I have never been one to believe that either MLB or the NFL gives a crap about the safety of players, but these stories make it just too obvious. 

So, assume the same thing happens for an NFL team; a player's test from yesterday comes back positive 90 minutes before game time. What do you do? Probably the same thing the Marlins did, pull the player, play the game, and hope for the best. And what happens? Probably the same thing that happened to the Marlins.

COVID-19 doesn't care how much money there is to be made. It doesn't care about your political or religious affiliations. It just does its thing; infect people at a high rate via respiratory droplets. That's the reality we're living in. Until community spread is controlled, sports are not going to be able to operate. 

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60% still for me

 

NFL has one huge advantage over the MLB in that there is a week+ between games and not a day.

Don't get why people are ignoring this. The testing lag is much less of a factor

 

And really the MLB was a Marlins issue more than it was a structural problem

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How are players allowed to leave their hotel when they are on the road in Baseball? They request that they stay but don't demand it. That's insane. I think the players think that as long as nobody has tested positive they can fist bump and get close to each other. Hopefully, this will serve as a lesson and these guy's will do a better job of following safety measures. I'll be curious to see where they trace this back to. It' seems to me that baseball is way too nonchalant about how they are doing things. There are no room for errors(no pun intended).

I think the NFL has the advantage of being able to learn from the mistakes of the sports being played now. Hopefully, they will have the fast result tests by the time the season starts. 

If I was a fan of baseball I may be panicking a bit but I don't think it's time to panic yet for football.

I'm actually going to up my percentage to 55%.

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3 hours ago, KChusker said:

60% still for me

 

NFL has one huge advantage over the MLB in that there is a week+ between games and not a day.

Don't get why people are ignoring this. The testing lag is much less of a factor

 

And really the MLB was a Marlins issue more than it was a structural problem

 

Are you forgetting about short week TNF? 

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12 minutes ago, the spanker said:

 

Are you forgetting about short week TNF? 

That's still 4 days. That kind of lag is rare for testing results. The MLB ones so far have been 2 or 3 days at most

And if it did emerge as a possible issue doubt the NFL has any problems pushing TNF back to Sunday

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3 hours ago, KChusker said:

And really the MLB was a Marlins issue more than it was a structural problem

What happened with the Marlins is that the incentives were put on display. Every team, in every sport, wants to play, and even more so if they're going to insanely sell spectator tickets. Will they same-day cancel a game because they got back a positive test result? Only if they're absolutely, positively required to. And we already know how poorly the NFL looks out for player health.

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7 minutes ago, CalBear said:

What happened with the Marlins is that the incentives were put on display. Every team, in every sport, wants to play, and even more so if they're going to insanely sell spectator tickets. Will they same-day cancel a game because they got back a positive test result? Only if they're absolutely, positively required to. And we already know how poorly the NFL looks out for player health.

That's why you need strict protocols/punishments

NFL may not have player health as a priority but when at stake is the occurrence of season (and the revenue for owners and players alike)--they will do what is needed

Doesn't guarantee it will be enough but they have a ton of incentive to do everything possible to have a season

And the NFL has time still (somewhat) on their side:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html

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1 hour ago, KChusker said:

That's why you need strict protocols/punishments

NFL may not have player health as a priority but when at stake is the occurrence of season (and the revenue for owners and players alike)--they will do what is needed

Doesn't guarantee it will be enough but they have a ton of incentive to do everything possible to have a season

I thought they had a ton of incentives and plenty of time(since April) to come up with a plan to play these games in some sort of bubbles. Maybe a bubble for each division(or at the very least conference?). But that would have required them changing the schedule and the owners really didn't even want to give up on preseason games.

The problem with simply saying "strict protocols/punishments" is all that's needed is the teams would have to impose these strict punishments on TEAMS. The owners have no problem with strict punishments on players but when it comes to the owners feeling the strict punishment I don't think they have much taste for holding one another accountable.

The owners have been looking squarely at the short-term bottom line this entire offseason and I doubt that suddenly changes. I just don't think the owners have it in them to think critically on this topic. It took a month or more to talk them out of having preseason games. Completely out of touch with the realities of what's going on out in the real world...... and to be honest if I was a billionaire maybe I'd be similarly out of touch. When do you think was the last time any of them wandered into a grocery store with a mask on? The problem is the owners live in bubbles and that contributes to the reason they can't see that the players that should be playing in bubbles. In all sports.

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2 hours ago, KChusker said:

That's why you need strict protocols/punishments

NFL may not have player health as a priority but when at stake is the occurrence of season (and the revenue for owners and players alike)--they will do what is needed

Doesn't guarantee it will be enough but they have a ton of incentive to do everything possible to have a season

And the NFL has time still (somewhat) on their side:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html

Looks very naive atm.
 

I’m surprised to see redrafts are still going. Even if the season goes it’s going to be a giant cluster###k.

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3 hours ago, Mongidig said:

I think the NFL has the advantage of being able to learn from the mistakes of the sports being played now. Hopefully, they will have the fast result tests by the time the season starts. 

To me the disadvantages of football far outweigh the advantages.

- Huge traveling circus of over 100 people for each and every team is easily the biggest problem. It's tough to keep tabs on a dozen or two dozen guys, the idea of 100+ guys(beyond just the players) making good decisions off the field seems daunting to me.

- At any given point in a game there could be a short yardage situation..... which means a pile of 22 guys. It's just the shear number of people on the sidelines of an NFL game. We aren't talking about ~10 bench players/coaches/trainers in the NFL.

- Specialty positions that are difficult to replace. It's one thing if an NBA team is forced to play a 6'9" guy at C because your C tests positive just before the game. Or a long reliever is forced to replace the starting P last minute.  It's a whole different problem if your QB tests positive before the start of the game and your entire game plan runs through that single player.

The owners will kvetch for months on end because they can't sell $10 beers so they will say they are losing their shirts, the fans will complain because the quality of the product may be the lowest that we've seen in our lifetimes, and in the end the players and coaches are taking all the risks with nobody really appreciating the exercise. The only winners might be the networks that will have a captive audience and will still probably get good ratings no matter how bad the quality of play is on the field. Netflix hasn't suddenly gotten better content in 2020.

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34 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Looks very naive atm.
 

I’m surprised to see redrafts are still going. Even if the season goes it’s going to be a giant cluster###k.

I'm surprised as well. I have no motivation to study fantasy football right now. Maybe in a month conditions will be better and I'll do some cramming. There will never be a point this year when you can feel comfortable with your team. 

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Four more Marlins positive.  Only one of Phillies, so far - attendant in visitor locker room. If that holds, could be encouraging evidence that it is not spreading in-game/on-field. Though it would not fully project  to NFL given difference in contact.

No game tonight, but seems like they are going to NY for those games.

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6 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Four more Marlins positive.  Only one of Phillies, so far - attendant in visitor locker room. If that holds, could be encouraging evidence that it is not spreading in-game/on-field. Though it would not fully project  to NFL given difference in contact.

No game tonight, but seems like they are going to NY for those games.

I personally think the baseball games aren’t the problem. It’s the travelling that’s the issue. Football is a whole different beast.

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On 7/27/2020 at 3:22 PM, CalBear said:

COVID-19 doesn't care how much money there is to be made. It doesn't care about your political or religious affiliations. It just does its thing; infect people at a high rate via respiratory droplets. That's the reality we're living in. Until community spread is controlled, sports are not going to be able to operate. 

I have been saying this for months. I am conservative politically, and cannot believe the degree to which this has been politicized and ignored. It's. A. Virus. It. Doesn't. Care. It doesn't care about your vacation plans. It doesn't care that you love your sister and want to just give her a hug. It doesn't care if you're liberal or conservative, agnostic or atheist.

It could give a rat's ### about any of that.

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48 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, so figured this was as good a place as any. Interesting article at OTC: The Impact of the Covid Rules on the Salary Cap and NFL Contracts

There is some complexity that figures into a player's decision to opt out.

This is the best thing I've seen for dynasty players concerned about their guys and what to do with them. 

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3 hours ago, rockaction said:

This is the best thing I've seen for dynasty players concerned about their guys and what to do with them. 

Even if the virus disappeared from the face of the Earth before the 2021 season, this will have ripple effects for at least as few seasons. Teams are and will act in the now and the situation is so fluid, weird things will happen in relation to the personnel and makeup of teams.

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I'm changing my vote from 55% to 6% 

What is going on in baseball is a reminder that players and staff simply can't be trusted to do the right thing regarding staying safe. The NFL will be an embellished version of Baseball. I don't see how they pull this off without creating some type of bubble alternative. 

The NFL would have to push back the season to a point where the infections are way down and the ability to have quick result tests are way up. I still have a glimmer of hope. I hope these idiots in baseball don't ruin if for football. If anything goes bad inside the football and hockey bubbles we can probably forget about it. 

I would put the over/under at about 6 games played this year. I'd bet the under.

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I saw a stat that the NFL actually has about 5-6 times Less contact during a game than the NHL so it might be worth watching them to see how it goes also (I don't watch NHL so I have no clue how they are handling things). 

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2 minutes ago, Shutout said:

I saw a stat that the NFL actually has about 5-6 times Less contact during a game than the NHL so it might be worth watching them to see how it goes also (I don't watch NHL so I have no clue how they are handling things). 

NHL is in a bubble,  so there will be no comparison. 

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2 minutes ago, Shutout said:

I saw a stat that the NFL actually has about 5-6 times Less contact during a game than the NHL so it might be worth watching them to see how it goes also (I don't watch NHL so I have no clue how they are handling things). 

IMO, not the same. NHL is doing the bubble concept. Different animal as far as I am concerned. 

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, not the same. NHL is doing the bubble concept. Different animal as far as I am concerned. 

Yep.  I was just educated on that..  agree.  Can't really compare.  Thanks

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On 7/27/2020 at 5:23 PM, KChusker said:

60% still for me

 

NFL has one huge advantage over the MLB in that there is a week+ between games and not a day.

Don't get why people are ignoring this. The testing lag is much less of a factor

 

And really the MLB was a Marlins issue more than it was a structural problem

Agreed that the week between games matters. But what do you do for practice?

1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

IMO, not the same. NHL is doing the bubble concept. Different animal as far as I am concerned. 

I really don't get why all sports don't do the bubble. I'm not sure it totally works but it's better than the current alternative.

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21 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Agreed that the week between games matters. But what do you do for practice?

I really don't get why all sports don't do the bubble. I'm not sure it totally works but it's better than the current alternative.

In my opinion, open air is a key to avoiding this thing. So if NFL was to do a bubble, it should be no fans. And in open air stadiums. And if an nfl team is in a dome scenario with airexchanger... seek to nearby quality open air college facility and subsidize local college. Dorms there. And kids aren’t going on campus given the latest statistics. 

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  • 1 month later...
5 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Curious to see how this would go now if re-voted.  Seems a lot of people were saying there was even a 0% chance the season would happen at all. 

Some people thrive off doom

They were the same sorts saying the NBA bubble was a guaranteed disaster and the season should be cancelled

If the MLB is going the NFL will be fine

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12 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Curious to see how this would go now if re-voted.  Seems a lot of people were saying there was even a 0% chance the season would happen at all. 

Don’t jinx it. Things are going smoothly. I finally allowed myself to get excited I’m going to go knock on every piece of wood in the house. 

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45 minutes ago, Deamon said:

Curious to see how this would go now if re-voted.  Seems a lot of people were saying there was even a 0% chance the season would happen at all. 

It would be interesting. I was one of those doom and gloomers who said zero per cent. I'm much more optimistic now since there's football on the horizon and it appears to be happening, but really nothing has objectively changed other than that so I'm not sure whether that optimism is warranted. The real challenge will be when travel ramps up and there are multiple positive tests or mini outbreaks. Maybe that won't happen but it still seems unlikely to me. 

Still, I'm excited that we are where we are. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 7/22/2020 at 8:45 PM, Dez said:

I am guessing the NFL is going to get in all 16 games.  Look at what the NBA did.  They are basically for the most part having almost all teams play their entire season and playoffs it just paused for 4+ months.  If for some reason the NFL has to stop mid season don't you think they will do the same thing ?  Why would they just throw their hands up in the air after 6 weeks and say season cancelled.  They would just push it back like the NBA and start again at some point.   Sure it sets everything else back like the NFL Draft and other stuff but that beats scrapping a season.  The NBA has pushed the NBA Draft back like 4-5 months.  It still is going to go on.

MONEY MONEY MONEY is why the NFL is going to have a season.

 

Over 50% predicted 5 games or less this year.  If this was a betting site I would be slamming the over 10 games and getting great odds based on what everyone else is betting.

Knock on wood I am feeling pretty good about this prediction when most of you here felt we might not have a season.

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1 hour ago, Dez said:

Knock on wood I am feeling pretty good about this prediction when most of you here felt we might not have a season.

>>This is one of the first major tests of the NFL’s COVID-19 protocols, with this move coming 24 hours before a game. Contact tracing comes next.<<

https://mobile.twitter.com/bylindsayhjones/status/1309921509217955841

>>We have placed CB AJ Terrell on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Edmond Robinson has been elevated to the active roster as a COVID replacement. We have also elevated Tyler Hall and Delrick Abrams to the 53-man roster.<<

https://mobile.twitter.com/AtlantaFalcons/status/1309915442325192707

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43 minutes ago, Gawain said:

I was just thinking how surprised I was by the nfl getting three weeks in without a positive test 

Not here but then again I voted 100% in this poll.

More players have been impacted by season ending injuries 

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6 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Rapid testing should give results soon for the rest of the team. He was tested Friday before practice and the results came back sometime today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1309917794507644928

I wonder how long it will take to get the results back from "rapid testing". The CHI/ATL game was scheduled to be one of the early games so it seems like it would be fairly easy to push it back if need be.

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6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

It's kinda weird that we're going into week 3 tomorrow and nows the first in season covid case.

That was my thought as well. It was my understanding that "false positives" weren't really all that uncommon which is why sports leagues required multiple negative tests before returning. In the FFA NFL/Covid thread someone mentioned that there 14k+ negative tests between week1 and week2. If that's the case then in the first three weeks there were something like 39,999/40,000 negative Covid tests. It's just kind of amazing that there haven't been any false positives when you are talking about testing in those numbers.

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