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2021 rookie drafts IF no 2020 season? (1 Viewer)

matttyl

Footballguy
May have been discussed previously/elsewhere, but I didn’t see anything on the front page.  What are dynasty leagues going to do about 2021 rookie picks *if* there isn’t a 2020 season? Just give the first pick to the same team that had it this past draft?  Lottery?

 
I think I'd break it into two or three tiers based on the 2020 draft.

That is... picks 1-6 and 7-12 or 1-4, 5-8, 9-12.

Then either randomize it (which could be fun, draw cards or something) or base it off of head to head/all play records from the last 3-5 years.

So the bad teams still pick at or near the top, mid in mid, and good last. But it doesn't guarantee someone getting pick 1, for example, two years in a row - although it could happen.

Maybe just do that for the first round and then completely randomize the remaining rounds.

Or more simply, average everyone's records for "X" number of years.

 
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I'm thinking of keeping the same draft order as this year for rd1 and using the reverse order in all the other rounds, so the team that had 2020 1.01 gets 2021 1.01, 2.12, 3.12, and 4.12.

A more radical option is to try to divide up all the draft picks into bundles that have roughly equal value, and let the team who drafted first this year have first choice of their bundle. So maybe the team that gets pick 1 wouldn't have their second pick until pick 33, and the team that picks 12th would get three picks in the typical "second round" range (13-24), and the worst team of the 2019 season gets to choose which of those options (or the other 10 bundles) they want.

 
A more radical option is to try to divide up all the draft picks into bundles that have roughly equal value, and let the team who drafted first this year have first choice of their bundle. So maybe the team that gets pick 1 wouldn't have their second pick until pick 33, and the team that picks 12th would get three picks in the typical "second round" range (13-24), and the worst team of the 2019 season gets to choose which of those options (or the other 10 bundles) they want.
I ran some numbers on this for a 12-team 5-round draft, and here are 12 bundles of picks that are fairly balanced according to the draft value chart that I was using:

1, 40, 45, 56, 58
2, 29, 42, 46, 60
3, 22, 39, 51, 57
4, 21, 32, 47, 59
5, 20, 30, 43, 54
6, 19, 31, 41, 44
7, 18, 28, 35, 55
8, 17, 27, 37, 49
9, 16, 26, 34, 52
10, 15, 25, 33, 53
11, 14, 24, 36, 50
12, 13, 23, 38, 48

 
I will push for the same draft order from 2020 to be used.  In my 10 team league, I’ve had the 1.10 or 1.09 for the past three years, there are a couple teams real strong teams and a couple that are lousy.  I wouldn’t want one of the stronger teams to get an early pick, just doesn’t seem good for the league, that’s why I’ll push for using the previous draft order.   If the league was more balanced, then I would probably go a different route, maybe some sort of weighted lottery.

 
I think I'd break it into two or three tiers based on the 2020 draft.

That is... picks 1-6 and 7-12 or 1-4, 5-8, 9-12.

Then either randomize it (which could be fun, draw cards or something) or base it off of head to head/all play records from the last 3-5 years.

So the bad teams still pick at or near the top, mid in mid, and good last. But it doesn't guarantee someone getting pick 1, for example, two years in a row - although it could happen.

Maybe just do that for the first round and then completely randomize the remaining rounds.

Or more simply, average everyone's records for "X" number of years.
I was thinking of doing this--it's pretty straightforward for casual owners to understand.  Maybe do the average wins over the past 5 seasons, but then make the 2021 draft (if 2020 doesn't happen) serpentine?  I dunno...

 
I was thinking have everyone rank all the other teams rosters. Average them all, and that’s the order. Maybe reverse the 3rd round. 

 
In the FFPC I think they need to have draft order based on points scored in the regular season the previous year.  They can't really use the 2020 draft order because they have a play for your pick system and example in 1 of my leagues last year the best regular season team in points scored was very unlucky and missed the playoffs by 1 VP but then went on to win the #1 pick.  So now if no season the best team on paper gets the #1 pick in back to back years.  That makes little sense.  If you at least use last years regular season point scored you get a true value of how good a team is.

 
The more I've been weighing various scenarios the more I think the season is just gonna be cancelled and we'll end up bumping to 2021, and will have to figure out this question. 

Some sort of aggregate of previous finishes or last seasons points, as described by Dez above, seems reasonable. 

 
I think I'd break it into two or three tiers based on the 2020 draft.

That is... picks 1-6 and 7-12 or 1-4, 5-8, 9-12.

Then either randomize it (which could be fun, draw cards or something) or base it off of head to head/all play records from the last 3-5 years.

So the bad teams still pick at or near the top, mid in mid, and good last. But it doesn't guarantee someone getting pick 1, for example, two years in a row - although it could happen.

Maybe just do that for the first round and then completely randomize the remaining rounds.

Or more simply, average everyone's records for "X" number of years.
Was looking to post the same question as the OP.  I agree that you don't want the best teams in the league to end up with the top picks, but at the same time, using the same order two years in a row could also be a major advantage.

I think I like the above option the best, with the two tiers being the playoff teams and non-playoff teams. Maybe instead of doing full serpentine, doing a reverse order within each tier for the 2nd round. 

For example, in a 10 team league with 6 playoff teams:

Teams 1-4 in one random order generator, and teams 5-10 in the other.  In this example, let's say the order came out as follows:  2, 1, 4, 3 and 7,6,5, 10, 9, 8.  In this case, round 2 would be: 3-4-1-2-8-9-10-5-6-7.  And round 3 would be the same as round 1.

Thoughts? I know it is a little complicated.

 
Good ideas here.  One issue I’ll have in my league is that many of the picks have already been traded between teams.  So owners will have specific incentives for one idea over another.  I’m looking for something simple that no one can really argue against.  I like the idea of having all the teams rank the league from top to bottom and go from there.  

 
We have a plan in place to take the last 3 years draft orders and average them to create a 2021 draft order.

 
Use this years rookie draft order next year is lazy and terrible, IMO.  Imagine all the players that helped teams get the lower picks that will have completely lost value by the 2021 season.   

I'm not sure there is a fair way but maybe use the DLF dynasty ADP next spring and determine the strength of a roster and rank those teams 1-12.   Then 1-4 can determine the top four picks, 5-8 the next four picks, and 9-12 the final four picks.

 

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