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Pick-a-Player -- 2.01 (Chubb, Jones, Mixon) (1 Viewer)

Given the scenario below, who would you select?

  • Nick Chubb

    Votes: 46 47.4%

  • Aaron Jones

    Votes: 10 10.3%

  • Joe Mixon

    Votes: 35 36.1%

  • Other/None of these three

    Votes: 6 6.2%
  • Total voters
    97
Clayton Gray

Clayton Gray

Just call me Carlton
Staff member
It is time to make another decision in the Pick-a-Player series. Every couple of days, we'll give you a situation and ask you to pick one of three players.

A few days later, the results will be published on the Footballguys website along with select comments from this thread.

So, let's get to it

It's the 2.01 pick in 12-team, non-PPR redraft, and you grabbed Josh Jacobs at the 1.12. Would you select Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, or Joe Mixon? Or would you pass on all three?

 
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I didn't read the non-ppr part until I voted, so maybe that would swing me to Chubb. I voted Mixon. 

 
Position 8 feels like a major tier drop off, where any player you pick at 8 feels like a reach. To me the obvious first 7 would be the consensus top 4 RB from last year + Cook, Henry, and Michael Thomas, then players feel a little indistinguishable between picks 8-20 where they all have upside, but also risks that could prevent them from reaching their upside. 

Out of the 3 options here, I like Jones the most. He is involved in the passing game with the occasional receiver route so he could be on the field for some 2 RB sets, and I see Dillon eating into Williams touches more than Jones. While there is discussion on whether he can sustain his TD rate, he has had a high TD/touch ratio since he has been in the league so I don't think it is due to one fluke year. It feels like his main weakness has always been the baffling play calling of the GB OC, such as last year when they were at 1st and 1 and did not run the ball once.

Unfortunately for Mixon, he is still a Bengal with a weak offensive line, and although there are a lot of expectations for Burrow, even a good rookie QB season tends to be mid-tier relative to all QBs. I don't think their offense will be prolific enough for Mixon to be worth a first round pick, and they could be playing from behind quite a bit. 

For Chubb I am just uncomfortable with Hunt in the mix as probably the best #2 RB on a team, as well as being the primary receiving back.

I still think Mixon and Chubb are good players who I would be happy to grab in the mid 2nd round, but 8 feels awfully rich for their perceived flaws in my eyes.

Rank order:

  1. Jones
  2. Chubb
  3. Mixon
 
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Tough without context of who is off the board. 

I would take M. Thomas or Barkley if available.  Of course they're gone, but would depend who was left.  I think maybe the 'other' category should be taken away.

Of the three, it's a clear toss up between Mixon and Chubb.... should be fairly split.  And don't think anyone will take Jones.

 
Also, reading the instructions it says it is pick #13 and you already grabbed a RB, while I assumed the title meant it was pick #8? It does not really change my answer for the rank order of those 3, but if I already had a RB I would potentially consider Hill or Julio Jones if they were available.

 
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@Clayton Grayhuthut has pointed out your title needs to reflect that it's the 2.01 pick rather than the 1.08 pick from last poll.

Just FYI.

 
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Mixon easily for me.

I'd take him over Cook/Jacobs even and have him equal to Kamara

But it seems I am a bigger Burrow believer than most

 
I am confused. Wasn't the last poll you did also for pick 1.08 with Adams and Hill with Mixon as options?

Is there any congruity between these polls? Wouldn't it be better to do a poll for pick 1.08 state who is gone and give people more than 3 choices instead of doing multiple polls about the same draft position?

In the OP you say this is now pick 2.01 perhaps that is meant to be in the poll title?

In any case these polls seem random and the assumption that people took Josh Jacobs at pick 12 seems odd since you were including Mixon in the 1.08 poll.

How about some structure and method to this?

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
Chubb week 10-17: RB 20 in STD PPG

Mixon week 10-17: RB 5 in STD PPG

Jones week 10-17: RB 3 in STD PPG

Given Jones stands to regress his TDS, and has Dillon, the choice is clear to me. 
 

Anyone taking Chubb is chasing points 
Click to expand...
Don't those numbers suggest you'd be chasing points with Mixon and Jones?

Mixon especially.  The recency bias is strong on him.  RB34 after 8 weeks last year, and didn't have a rushing TD until week 11. Against JAX he racked up 4 yards for an entire game.  He was unstartable. 

That guy won't be on any of my teams this year.

 
davearm said:
Don't those numbers suggest you'd be chasing points with Mixon and Jones?

Mixon especially.  The recency bias is strong on him.  RB34 after 8 weeks last year, and didn't have a rushing TD until week 11. Against JAX he racked up 4 yards for an entire game.  He was unstartable. 

That guy won't be on any of my teams this year.
Click to expand...
RB34 until the Bengals figured out he's their best weapon and upgraded their offense

Don't be the guy passing on Henry last year for Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman because the team only learned he is their best weapon in the second half of the year while the others had a history of fantasy production

 
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first off, I am not taking Jacobs at 1.12... I would take Mixon, then seriously look at WRs but still looking for best valued player.  it would depend on the starting requirements (maybe), and I am taking the best valued player regardless of position.  So, I picked none of the above as I would have taken Mixon already.  

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
Chubb week 10-17: RB 20 in STD PPG

Mixon week 10-17: RB 5 in STD PPG

Jones week 10-17: RB 3 in STD PPG

Given Jones stands to regress his TDS, and has Dillon, the choice is clear to me. 
 

Anyone taking Chubb is chasing points 
Click to expand...
I think Chubb's numbers before and after Hunt arrived had more to do with TD variance than Hunt stealing work. Chubb had a really low rate of converting goal line opportunities into TDs after Hunt returned, despite getting more goal line opportunities after Hunt returned compared to the 1st half of the season. IIRC Chubb barely lost any rushing opportunities after Hunt returned, but he did lose almost targets per game. His with-Hunt rushing pace last year was 288/1382/4.

I found a site that tracks goal line carries by week a few months back when I was looking into it. I don't have time to search for it now, but will check later. 

I think if Chubb is still averaging 18 carries a game like he did with Hunt there last year, a better OL, less crappy TD luck, and a more competent coaching staff push him into top 10 pretty easily in standard. 

 
In this scenario, I take Mixon. He has the best shot at a top 5 season of the three, as Chubb has Hunt taking some away and Jones won’t repeat his TD numbers from last year. That said, I would have taken a Mixon/Chubb combo at the turn instead of Jacobs as I don’t see the upside in the Las Vegas offense to get Jacobs to the elite level numbers. 

 
Duckboy said:
In this scenario, I take Mixon. He has the best shot at a top 5 season of the three, as Chubb has Hunt taking some away and Jones won’t repeat his TD numbers from last year. That said, I would have taken a Mixon/Chubb combo at the turn instead of Jacobs as I don’t see the upside in the Las Vegas offense to get Jacobs to the elite level numbers. 
Click to expand...
Same. Well said

 
I chose Jones. I think he is a slight favorite in total yardage even in standard and more of a td scorer compared to both. Even with td regression. Chubb, would be a clear favorite, if not for Hunt. In games last season when Hunt was playing Chubb didn’t produce as much. Therefore, I wouldn’t go Chubb. Mixon would be a second for me. However, I haven’t seen him used as much in passing downs. And he has a rookie QB. The rookie Qb might be outstanding making Mixon a great value if tds pops go up. But for me, I would go with ARodgers lead passing team and proven AJones... his ypc is exceptional. All around a safe and solid pick without much worry of a clunker... of the three. 

 
I’m in the minority who chose AJones as well. 

In non-PPR I like his TDs, lack of competition for early down touches & home run ability as well as the chunk plays. 

I think Chubb is significantly overvalued with the presence of Hunt, and Mixon is a bit hard to trust not knowing what we’ll get out of the new-look Cinci offense. 

 
Duckboy said:
In this scenario, I take Mixon. He has the best shot at a top 5 season of the three, as Chubb has Hunt taking some away and Jones won’t repeat his TD numbers from last year. That said, I would have taken a Mixon/Chubb combo at the turn instead of Jacobs as I don’t see the upside in the Las Vegas offense to get Jacobs to the elite level numbers. 
Click to expand...
:goodposting:  

This, based on the limited info provided. I voted Mixon in the previous 1.8 poll. That was PPR, but IMO Mixon's standing rises in non-PPR.

@Clayton Gray, if you are going to include an other option, you really need to state the players who have already been drafted to inform that option. Enjoying the threads, though, thanks for doing them.

 
Its about a coin flip between Chubb and Mixon.  

I get it, Kareem Hunt knocks Chubb down.  But I think it's a bit overstated.  Chubb had 144 rushes and 12 receptions in 8 games with Hunt.  For simplicity sake, he double it for this season to extrapolate it and you've got 288 rushes, 24 receptions.  

I think the Browns offense makes some strides in 2020.  Beckham should be 100% from the sports hernia.  That plus imporvements to the line should have Baker playing closer to his 2018 form.  If they can stay on the field longer, Chubb can find himself still pushing to 300 rushes and 20 something catches.  He can still challenge for the rushing title.  He had 10 TD's 2 years ago and 8 last year.  If the offense takes a step forward--10-12 TD's seems reasonable.  

I understand Mixon wins in the passing game.  Mixon wins in the passing game over Henry too, but people still like Henry.  I think Chubb out-rushes Mixon by a couple of hundred yards and scores more TD's.  

It's close, but if non-PPR, Chubb.  

As soon as you hit half-PPR-->Mixon.

 
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I will go with Mixon but it's close between him and Chubb.  Jones is a distant 3rd here.....no way he can repeat his TD production from last year and Dillon should eat into his carries, or at least limit Jones from getting a bigger share of the pie.  Personally I think Mixon has the most upside of the 3.

 
GordonGekko said:
Clayton,

On an aside, here are some things FBG needs to do to stay relevant
Click to expand...
Thanks for sharing the feedback there. As Clayton said, Sigmund is working on some new guidance for leagues on how to handle rosters and such. We're also looking at how we best serve readers with "replacements" type info diving down into more fringe players that might be called up if needed to fill a spot. It's going to be an interesting year for sure. 

 
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