This_Guy Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 We were really gumming up the Stock thread so.......... On 10/17/2019 at 10:20 AM, chet said: Boom or bust with this one: CYDY. Biotech drug maker awaiting FDA approval for new HIV drug among other things. Here's an article from Seeking Alpha that came out last month. FYI: Stocks that trade @ ~$0.34 are more likely to go to $0 than $1. I think this will be an exception. On 7/21/2020 at 3:21 PM, chet said: I am trying to understand today's PR and calculate some p-values based on the numbers. Placebo had 28 participants and 11 SAEs for a success rate of 17/28. Drug had 56 participants and 8 SAEs for a success rate of 48/56. Here are the inputs and result from a two proportion hypothesis test. It returns a p-value of ~0.0078 which is very significant. However, this doesn't tell the entire tale because some patients had more than one SAE so the total number of placebo patients who had an SAE was 6/28 and total drug patients with an SAE was 5/56. I don't know how to adjust for the above--anyone have a suggestion. Anyone have a suggestion? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayrok Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Is there any traction to this ticker? Does the company have a strong CEO and good fundamentals? Will need to look a bit more into this, sounds promising. Thanks for the tip. 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
This_Guy Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Jayrok said: Is there any traction to this ticker? Does the company have a strong CEO and good fundamentals? Will need to look a bit more into this, sounds promising. Thanks for the tip. Opinions on the CEO are........mixed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyToughGuys Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drunken slob Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capella Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 💰 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Pump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adonis Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Ironically, soon we may be able to buy it at the October 2019 price first mentioned by Chet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyToughGuys Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 just doubled the number of threads I follow here nowadays. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BassNBrew Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said: Pump Dump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaz McNulty Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Where would the stock be right now if Nadar had said last week: " we will have the safety data out next week, and hope to have the efficacy data out the following week". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrow1 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 :boatloads: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aaron Rudnicki Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 black dot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unckeyherb Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 gulp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayrok Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Chaz McNulty said: Where would the stock be right now if Nadar had said last week: " we will have the safety data out next week, and hope to have the efficacy data out the following week". Probably 6.70 to 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matuski Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chaz McNulty said: Where would the stock be right now if Nadar had said last week: " we will have the safety data out next week, and hope to have the efficacy data out the following week". Seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adonis Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Are we poor yet? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Czervik Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Maybe we get some help from Dr Yo being on Dr Drew at 6pm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capella Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 So say all the results are promising and all with the efficacy and the serious trials but they still move to stage 3 and continue the serious. What are the predictions for the stock price? A stage 3 for M/M means another 3-4 months and a chance to be passed up by some other drug - I might want to cash in at that point. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capella Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Al Czervik said: Maybe we get some help from Dr Yo being on Dr Drew at 6pm? Is this the rantes not panties guy? Gonna guess no. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeBaGeL Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) I told the wife we were going to be lambo shopping tonight and she is not disappointed. Just put in an order. Edited July 21, 2020 by FreeBaGeL 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Vermeil Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adonis Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Capella said: 2 minutes ago, Al Czervik said: Maybe we get some help from Dr Yo being on Dr Drew at 6pm? Is this the rantes not panties guy? Gonna guess no. He uses that hashtag on twitter, so maybe. He's also a BP follower. Has no other news he can present, just a remix of what BP's said, what the data shows, and what he hopes to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantasycurse42 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 So everyone is scared again You guys talk mad ####. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaganwildcats Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capella Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, fantasycurse42 said: So everyone is scared again You guys talk mad ####. Nobody is scared, just baffled at the incompetence Edited July 21, 2020 by Capella Edit: well you’re scared 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matuski Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Did they mention uplisting recently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluto Blutarsky Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantasycurse42 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Capella said: Nobody is scared, just baffled at the incompetence To understand this right; my constant frustration with NP is fear, but everyone else is just confusion? Understood. ETA: He does really suck Edited July 21, 2020 by fantasycurse42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don't Noonan Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Did we do it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matuski Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Also, please dont kill the stock thread. CYDY wasn't the only winner there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⚡DEADHEAD⚡ Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 $5k on some budgeto fake-### BS video instead of $5k on a technical proofreader. Boggles the mind. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiefD Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 sigh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Are we rich yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantasycurse42 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Just now, ⚡DEADHEAD⚡ said: $5k on some budgeto fake-### BS video instead of $5k on a technical proofreader. Boggles the mind. What really frustrates me is he could just create a video and post it on Twitter... Like we're all sitting around and watching SuperStonk Proactive NY Investor in the background. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantasycurse42 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Is there going to be Q & A at this stockholder meeting tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golf Guy 69 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, Al Czervik said: Maybe we get some help from Dr Yo being on Dr Drew at 6pm? Only if the "cool beens" rally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⚡DEADHEAD⚡ Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Scott Kelly is the Chairman of the Board. Does he not see what we see? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adonis Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Stepping back, not much has changed. They've done a poor job managing expectations, but I've been in this due to the science from the beginning. I'm sticking around until the science has a chance to shine. Today's data, while not done as well as it should have been done, still showed good scientific merit. The results are there. Results from previous studies are there. There's nothing different really between today and yesterday's BP talk that affects the potential for the drug. Perhaps we have a case of hyper-focus on the missed expectations, and we're allowing that to overshadow the drug itself, which time and time again when it speaks, it's powerful. The other folks doing the speaking on behalf of leronlimab either do it many favors (like BP) or can cause some short term stock harm like NP. But the science is unchanged, the trials are ongoing, and results are coming. None of that is any different today than it was weeks ago. Just our expectations weren't met, and like kids at christmas who didn't get what they wanted, we have all of the feels. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caesar Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, adonis said: Stepping back, not much has changed. They've done a poor job managing expectations, but I've been in this due to the science from the beginning. I'm sticking around until the science has a chance to shine. Today's data, while not done as well as it should have been done, still showed good scientific merit. The results are there. Results from previous studies are there. There's nothing different really between today and yesterday's BP talk that affects the potential for the drug. Perhaps we have a case of hyper-focus on the missed expectations, and we're allowing that to overshadow the drug itself, which time and time again when it speaks, it's powerful. The other folks doing the speaking on behalf of leronlimab either do it many favors (like BP) or can cause some short term stock harm like NP. But the science is unchanged, the trials are ongoing, and results are coming. None of that is any different today than it was weeks ago. Just our expectations weren't met, and like kids at christmas who didn't get what they wanted, we have all of the feels. I still believe that Red Rider BB gun is hiding behind the leg lamp. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamny Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 🚤 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polish Hammer Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 :reluctant sehorn: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFBayDuck Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, Al Czervik said: Maybe we get some help from Dr Yo being on Dr Drew at 6pm? I think we're going to need Dr. Bunsen Honeydew and Dr. Teeth to chime in to really push us over the top. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guinis72 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chet Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) Quote I am trying to understand today's PR and calculate some p-values based on the numbers. Placebo had 28 participants and 11 SAEs for a success rate of 17/28. Drug had 56 participants and 8 SAEs for a success rate of 48/56. Here are the inputs and result from a two proportion hypothesis test. It returns a p-value of ~0.0078 which is very significant. However, this doesn't tell the entire tale because some patients had more than one SAE so the total number of placebo patients who had an SAE was 6/28 and total drug patients with an SAE was 5/56. I don't know how to adjust for the above--anyone have a suggestion. Anyone have a suggestion? Come on--there are some bright people here. Let's figure this out. In the placebo group, you have 28 patients who produced a total of 11 SAEs. In the drug arm, you have 56 patients who produced a total of 8 SAEs. To be clear, you DON'T want SAEs. So what is the probability that the drug influenced a better outcome? Edited July 21, 2020 by chet corrected a mistake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantasycurse42 Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, chet said: Come on--there are some bright people here. Let's figure this out. In the placebo group, you have 28 patients who produced a total of 11 SAEs. In the drug arm, you have 56 patients who produced a total of 6 SAEs. To be clear, you DON'T want SAEs. So what is the probability that the drug influenced a better outcome? Aren’t there 8 total SAEs in 5 patients in the control? ETA: I agree with you, there has to be some statistical significance here. Edited July 21, 2020 by fantasycurse42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluto Blutarsky Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, chet said: Come on--there are some bright people here. Let's figure this out. In the placebo group, you have 28 patients who produced a total of 11 SAEs. In the drug arm, you have 56 patients who produced a total of 8 SAEs. To be clear, you DON'T want SAEs. So what is the probability that the drug influenced a better outcome? @caustic is the math guru iirc Edited July 21, 2020 by Bluto Blutarsky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chet Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said: Aren’t there 8 total SAEs in 5 patients in the control? ETA: I agree with you, there has to be some statistical significance here. Yes. Error fixed. Thx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[icon] Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 In for all the dollars Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BassNBrew Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 @This_Guy Could we please get a cytodyn reference in the title and maybe a description about it curing Covid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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