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***OFFICIAL CYDY/Leronlimab Thread***


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  We were really gumming up the Stock thread so..........

On 10/17/2019 at 10:20 AM, chet said:

Boom or bust with this one:  CYDY.  Biotech drug maker awaiting FDA approval for new HIV drug among other things.  Here's an article from Seeking Alpha that came out last month.

FYI:  Stocks that trade @ ~$0.34 are more likely to go to $0 than $1.  I think this will be an exception.

 

 

  

On 7/21/2020 at 3:21 PM, chet said:

I am trying to understand today's PR and calculate some p-values based on the numbers.  Placebo had 28 participants and 11 SAEs for a success rate of 17/28.  Drug had 56 participants and 8 SAEs for a success rate of 48/56.

Here are the inputs and result from a two proportion hypothesis test.  It returns a p-value of ~0.0078 which is very significant.  However, this doesn't tell the entire tale because some patients had more than one SAE so the total number of placebo patients who had an SAE was 6/28 and total drug patients with an SAE was 5/56.  

I don't know how to adjust for the above--anyone have a suggestion.  Anyone have a suggestion?

 

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1 minute ago, Jayrok said:

Is there any traction to this ticker?  Does the company have a strong CEO and good fundamentals?  Will need to look a bit more into this, sounds promising.  Thanks for the tip. 

Opinions on the CEO are........mixed.

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1 minute ago, Chaz McNulty said:

Where would the stock be right now if Nadar had said last week:

" we will have the safety data out next week, and hope to have the efficacy data out the following week".

Probably 6.70 to 7.  

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So say all the results are promising and all with the efficacy and the serious trials but they still move to stage 3 and continue the serious. What are the predictions for the stock price? A stage 3 for M/M means another 3-4 months and a chance to be passed up by some other drug - I might want to cash in at that point. Thoughts?

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1 minute ago, Capella said:
2 minutes ago, Al Czervik said:

Maybe we get some help from Dr Yo being on Dr Drew at 6pm? :shrug:

Is this the rantes not panties guy? Gonna guess no.

He uses that hashtag on twitter, so maybe.  He's also a BP follower.

Has no other news he can present, just a remix of what BP's said, what the data shows, and what he hopes to see.

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2 minutes ago, Capella said:

Nobody is scared, just baffled at the incompetence 

To understand this right; my constant frustration with NP is fear, but everyone else is just confusion? Understood. 

ETA: He does really suck

Edited by fantasycurse42
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Just now, DEADHEAD said:

$5k on some budgeto fake-### BS video instead of $5k on a technical proofreader. Boggles the mind.

What really frustrates me is he could just create a video and post it on Twitter... 

Like we're all sitting around and watching SuperStonk Proactive NY Investor in the background. 

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Stepping back, not much has changed.  They've done a poor job managing expectations, but I've been in this due to the science from the beginning.  I'm sticking around until the science has a chance to shine.

Today's data, while not done as well as it should have been done, still showed good scientific merit.  The results are there.  Results from previous studies are there.  There's nothing different really between today and yesterday's BP talk that affects the potential for the drug.

Perhaps we have a case of hyper-focus on the missed expectations, and we're allowing that to overshadow the drug itself, which time and time again when it speaks, it's powerful.  The other folks doing the speaking on behalf of leronlimab either do it many favors (like BP) or can cause some short term stock harm like NP.

But the science is unchanged, the trials are ongoing, and results are coming.  None of that is any different today than it was weeks ago.  Just our expectations weren't met, and like kids at christmas who didn't get what they wanted, we have all of the feels.

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4 minutes ago, adonis said:

Stepping back, not much has changed.  They've done a poor job managing expectations, but I've been in this due to the science from the beginning.  I'm sticking around until the science has a chance to shine.

Today's data, while not done as well as it should have been done, still showed good scientific merit.  The results are there.  Results from previous studies are there.  There's nothing different really between today and yesterday's BP talk that affects the potential for the drug.

Perhaps we have a case of hyper-focus on the missed expectations, and we're allowing that to overshadow the drug itself, which time and time again when it speaks, it's powerful.  The other folks doing the speaking on behalf of leronlimab either do it many favors (like BP) or can cause some short term stock harm like NP.

But the science is unchanged, the trials are ongoing, and results are coming.  None of that is any different today than it was weeks ago.  Just our expectations weren't met, and like kids at christmas who didn't get what they wanted, we have all of the feels.

I still believe that Red Rider BB gun is hiding behind the leg lamp.

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Quote

 

I am trying to understand today's PR and calculate some p-values based on the numbers.  Placebo had 28 participants and 11 SAEs for a success rate of 17/28.  Drug had 56 participants and 8 SAEs for a success rate of 48/56.

Here are the inputs and result from a two proportion hypothesis test.  It returns a p-value of ~0.0078 which is very significant.  However, this doesn't tell the entire tale because some patients had more than one SAE so the total number of placebo patients who had an SAE was 6/28 and total drug patients with an SAE was 5/56.  

I don't know how to adjust for the above--anyone have a suggestion.  Anyone have a suggestion?

 

Come on--there are some bright people here.  Let's figure this out.  

In the placebo group, you have 28 patients who produced a total of 11 SAEs.

In the drug arm, you have 56 patients who produced a total of 8 SAEs.

To be clear, you DON'T want SAEs.  So what is the probability that the drug influenced a better outcome?

Edited by chet
corrected a mistake
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4 minutes ago, chet said:

Come on--there are some bright people here.  Let's figure this out.  

In the placebo group, you have 28 patients who produced a total of 11 SAEs.

In the drug arm, you have 56 patients who produced a total of 6 SAEs.

To be clear, you DON'T want SAEs.  So what is the probability that the drug influenced a better outcome?

Aren’t there 8 total SAEs in 5 patients in the control?

ETA: I agree with you, there has to be some statistical significance here. 

Edited by fantasycurse42
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17 minutes ago, chet said:

Come on--there are some bright people here.  Let's figure this out.  

In the placebo group, you have 28 patients who produced a total of 11 SAEs.

In the drug arm, you have 56 patients who produced a total of 8 SAEs.

To be clear, you DON'T want SAEs.  So what is the probability that the drug influenced a better outcome?

@caustic is the math guru iirc 

Edited by Bluto Blutarsky
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