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***OFFICIAL CYDY/Leronlimab Thread*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter This_Guy
- Start date
The Blue Baron
Footballguy
After a night of reflection, I am still on the sidelines; however, I hope the FDA shows compassion in guiding CytoDyn on the best path forward. The CEO needs to stay off the Kool Beens and focus on the tasks at hand. From the information available, certainly appears more patients will need to be enrolled in critical. The age factor is intriguing but I’m not even sure if this is legal? Could you advise a patient, “I’m sorry you’re over 65, you can’t enroll in our trial?” Then you also have to work in factors of overall health. All because you’re over 65 doesn’t mean, you may not be in better health than someone under 65. I don’t even know if they could have designed the original trial to maintain the balance for age?
In any case, if they believe LL can help, they should publish all the mortality in % and numbers everyone can understand, increase trial sites, and wrap this up in a few months. If it stretches on until the end of the year or early next year, it will likely be a case of too little, too late. I wonder how long the trial would have taken to fill up if they imposed age restrictions? If anything, this proves the company is too small without the experience to moves things forward. I’m watching from the stands. The 2nd PR, the vague 1st PR, the appearance on the Kool Beens, and, everything yet to pass is the equivalent of watching Fran Tarkenton in a mad scramble trying to find the time and space to make one last gasp Hail Mary pass with no time left on the clock.
· If Pfizer CEO, Albert Bourla, made an appearance on the Kool Beans pitching his product, his board would likely demand his resignation the next morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CwsfdY5o08
In any case, if they believe LL can help, they should publish all the mortality in % and numbers everyone can understand, increase trial sites, and wrap this up in a few months. If it stretches on until the end of the year or early next year, it will likely be a case of too little, too late. I wonder how long the trial would have taken to fill up if they imposed age restrictions? If anything, this proves the company is too small without the experience to moves things forward. I’m watching from the stands. The 2nd PR, the vague 1st PR, the appearance on the Kool Beens, and, everything yet to pass is the equivalent of watching Fran Tarkenton in a mad scramble trying to find the time and space to make one last gasp Hail Mary pass with no time left on the clock.
· If Pfizer CEO, Albert Bourla, made an appearance on the Kool Beans pitching his product, his board would likely demand his resignation the next morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CwsfdY5o08
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Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
I'll be happy to get out at 2.75.
Capella
Footballguy
Extremely true, especially your last sentence about the kool beans part. Just flat out embarrassing.
Capella
Footballguy
I would guess tomorrow AM would be the worst time to sell in the next few weeks.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
How low will you go before deciding to hold on? If it gaps down to 1.80, would you sell?
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I wonder if NP gets in trouble for his pumping and 3 digit comments. It would be a tough pill to swallow if you were a new investor looking at a company that just finished its phase 3 trial and the CEO is talking like this after viewing the data.
Capella
Footballguy
Jmo but I would never sell at those levels. May as well hold for the year, see if it gets better and if not, take the tax write off in December. Just the way I am going to approach it, unless you have gains to lock in there is no reason to sell now.
Capella
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If there was any regulatory body that was actually worth a damn then I don't see how he wouldn't be in jail for like 15 different things.
I’ve been thinking that $3.25 or thereabouts is my number. I’m selling a majority of my shares above and holding below. And I’m a buyer under $1.50, or so.
Capella
Footballguy
unckeyherb
Footballguy
So i assume this thing is going to gap down at the open? Or are there enough buyers convinced of the 24% info that it will see a slight uptick at the bell? The mood here suggests the former; on other boards the latter.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
My friend wrote the following:
To All:
I'm sure all of you believe me when I tell you this has been a busy and confusing weekend re Cytodyn.
To begin, I was 100% correct in my evaluation of the first press released Fri night.
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate the second press release combine them and present what in my opinion will happen during the next 60 days.
Leronlimab ( herein called DRUG) works on critically ill Covid patients. No "if's buts, or maybe's" it works!!!!!
1) Within the next few days the FDA and Cytodyn will agree on a protocol to administer the drug to 140 criticall patients suffering from Covid. The end point ( result that the test will determine) will be based on the following
Discharge alive: In addition, patients who received leronlimab demonstrated an improved probability of "discharged alive" at Day 28 .
Based on the test just completed the drug was better than the placebo by 166%
This new test will be successful. This new test results on the critically ill will be completed within a month. Results of the new test will be reported to us soon after.If all goes well we will know that we either will have an approved drug or a EUA approval within 6-8 weeks at best.
This disease is not going away!. The need for a powerful drug that will save lives will be around for many years.
The % of population that will refuse the drug will be over 10%. Magnify that worldwide, and you have a significant population that will need this drug. 6-8 weeks is a miniscule time to wait at this point in the development of this living saving drug.
Now you ask yourself the question Why doesn't the FDA approved this drug immediately to save lives?
The short answer- they still might give the drug "conditional approval" in the very near future.
They should!!! but don't count on it! why not?
Trail just completed was a trial for critical and ssevere patients
1) SEVERE IS NOT SYNONYMOUS WITH SERIOUS IN THE MEDICAL FIELD. IT IS MUCH LESS SERIOUS THAN CRITICAL. PLEASE KEEP THAT IN MIND.
Rather than going into complex reasoning it is sufficient to say the second press release wanted us to understand that under certain circumstances if we adjust age issues the drug was successful even for those with severe conditions.
The FDA does not do that. In their mind the test was for Critical and Severe and when you combine them the total score for the drug did not pass their testing requirements .
Here are the critical points
) The drug is in a class all by itself. There is nothing close to it to save lives for critically ill patients.
2) The drug will be approved for critical patients sooner rather than later
3)The drug will be in great demand for many years to come.
I have been an investor for too many years.
I know the "Ups and down's" of a stock especially in the bio tech field.
I have been an investor in this company for close to 8 years. Am I tired of management and their inability to get this wonder drug across the "finish line" you bet I am.
This set back is nothing unusual, happens all the time in the bio tech field. In fact we are now "ZERO IN"on the exact application that will allow us to be very successful.
Cancer Nash HIV and a host of other promising applications are still close to happening with this drug
Conclusion --In my opinion not sure what direction the stock will take tomorrow morning. Many people think the stock will be much lower. It is truly irrelevant as to your investment in Cytodyn if there is a lower price. For all the reasons I mentioned above, Monday is not the time to sell shares . Only my opinion
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Been thinking the same thing. It also could deteriorate further because I have no idea if the HIV BLA is something that they are even close to or what the real issue is there.
I'm definitely counting the possibility that they may never get a drug to market.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
They still have a carrot. Nothing is clear. I don't see the stock below 3, but what do I know.
chet
Footballguy
He'd be really smart to do a partnership but I just don't think he's smart enough to realize that. He's an arrogant narcissist.
Capella
Footballguy
Yup.
Let’s say best case this thing does play out like the email - what’s the share price looking like? Covid is going to be significantly diminished in 2 months and I can’t imagine market sentiment is going to be jumping at the prospect of a covid stock.
Not saying it couldn’t go to 10-20 there but the idea of this thing ever being a rocket ship seems to be long gone. Imo.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
At this point, I've got no faith in the guy. It's not that they missed the endpoint either, but give a little transparency please. We just went through a dog and pony show for the last six weeks, where there was nothing behind the curtain.
I'm trying not to look at it too emotionally and make a rational decision but if I can't trust the guy at all, it seems stupid for me to have any money tied into it any longer. Can cut the loss here and not have to think about it any longer.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
If you don't want to look emotionally, there is only one thing that should matter. Are they going to be able to sell the drug or not.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
At this point, I lean no. Has Nader given any indication that HIV is close. You know he would have by now if he had good news to share.
Covid is a big crapshoot and it's at least 4-6 months away.
generactor
Footballguy
In a call last August or September Nader admitted that the price structure of the Vyera licensing deal for HIV in the US essentially killed any chance for a partnership on other indications. There is a price floor in the Vyera contract which extends to any indication, I believe it's somewhere around $40K - $60K annually per patient, that bigger pharma balked at. So the Vyera deal, which sounded kind of decent when it was signed, has been a hindrance. There has been talk of licensing outside the US but nothing ever came of it.
And yeah, obviously Nader sees himself as a bigtimer. He probably could have made a deal with a larger pharma for HIV but he went with the rinky dink, formerly run by Martin Shkreli, currently getting sued by everybody Vyera because Cytodyn will keep a much bigger slice of the pie if they ever have HIV revenue than a bigger pharma would take. But as a tradeoff, he got essentially nothing up front where a bigger pharma would have made sure Cytodyn was well capitalized to go for HIV approval.
Leronlimab and Nader are one and the same and he's made sure nobody is in a position to do anything about it. The Board never has. Past shareholders votes on contentious issues have always gone Nader's way so I'm not sure even a decent buyout offer would have the votes to pass.
Steeler
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
It's going to zero within a year. Sell and toss the money that's left in PLTR, IPOE, or UUUU.
Buying for a swing trade?
I'd call that optimistic.
Nope. it will bounce back. Probably best to sell at the open and then buy back lower if you want to hold it.
They bought a #### pile of LL and are locked in a contract to purchase more. The only way they stay afloat is if they further dilute. This is either going to be a 7 cent stock with 5 billion shares outstanding or bankrupt. CYDY is currently a 2.5 billion dollar market cap stock. That's the same market cap as Fulgent which had 33 million in sales last year.
Actually, FLGT's revenue in 2020 (last year) was over $400M and their market cap is $2.2B. I believe their 2021 forecast is $800M in sales. CYDY being worth more with the info from Friday night is crazy.
Capella
Footballguy
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
This may be true, but It will take some time before this happens. This stock has been predictable and fairly easy to take profit from. So why not do as this wise man once said regarding NP.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Good luck. This stock has throw me more curveballs than any other. I just haven't been nearly as success as some of you trading it.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I generally only trade in the first 15 minutes because it has been doing the same thing in 9 out of 10 days when there is no news.
chet
Footballguy
The PRs and interview of this weekend have proven a few things:
I am disappointed that the results don't merit an immediate approval but what's another 2-3 months? i will be adding on extreme weakness.
- Nader is an incompetent clown who needs to be replaced; and
- The drug works for critical patients.
I am disappointed that the results don't merit an immediate approval but what's another 2-3 months? i will be adding on extreme weakness.
Capella
Footballguy
I’m not convinced with this guy leading the ship they’ll ever get an EUA, but I am convinced there is money to be made off the share price tomorrow.
chet
Footballguy
I respectfully disagree with your contention that COVID will be gone in two months. Vaccines and therapeutics will help but with the mutations, and the idiots refusing vaccine, COVID will be around for years if not forever. Like the flu, which kills on average 60K people/year in the US, COVID will claim a similar amount. I think we will progress from being in a pandemic to having another virus to deal with where we get a vaccination annually which will be +/- effective depending on the year. There will be a demand for this drug for the foreseeable future IMO.
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Zegras11
Footballguy
I agree with this.
Also, I know of several people having long hauler issues locally (and Norman Chad from WSOP) and I read a few weeks back that I think that number is around 15% of people that had Covid are having issues later on with their lungs.
chet
Footballguy
It's unproven, but Dr. Patterson has said he believes 30% of COVID victims suffer from chronic COVID. He knows more about long haulers than anyone in the world. He has hundreds of blood samples from patients and thousands waiting to be tested. Through machine learning he has developed a long hauler index which quantifies the magnitude of the affliction. If you have friends or family suffering from this have them go here.
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Capella
Footballguy
Oh it’s going to be endemic — but I doubt covid gets 60k a year. This vaccines target the virus better than the flu vax does. People will come around on the vaccines when they see a loved one die or whatever.
There will be demand for this drug and anything that works on covid, just not to the point where if this got approval 6 months ago or something. They missed an opportunity there.
Zegras11
Footballguy
yep, I've sent everyone there. Norman Chad was grateful.
I have chronic bronchitis from two blood clots in my lungs from 2009. It's brutal the 1-2 per year when it flares up. From what I've read the long haulers are having it much worse in a lot of cases. I'm 12 hours away from getting my first shot.
chet
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Hopefully covid dissipates and this stock still makes a lot of money and helps a lot of people - I do think long haulers is the key to any future cydy may have, but a trial for that almost seems impossible to me. How do you even begin to design the endpoints?
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I hope your right, but this seems very optimistic. We won't really know until next flu (Covid) season. We should see numbers going down into summer. I guess next September/October we will be able to see the effectiveness of the vaccines.
chet
Footballguy
Zegras11
Footballguy
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=2898306747110237&ref=watch_permalink
Start listening at the 5:19 mark.
Start listening at the 5:19 mark.
