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Given What We Know Right Now, Ezekiel Elliott Might Be The Right First Overall Pick In Redraft


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He's already had COVID. McCaffrey and Barkley have not tested positive yet, or have at least had it kept private. But you have to assume potential for missed games into projections for the season. If the protocol is a minimum of seventeen days, then that's at least two games potentially missed by those guys.

Any discussion points here would be welcome.

Edited by rockaction
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Yes, Elliot should very much be considered as the 1.01 in redraft. 
 

Look at this as a potential 2 game suspension (most likely scenario) for both CMC and Barkley. If they are going into the season with that impending at any given time, similar to Zeke in 2018, then how much would you drop them in your rankings? 
 

They could catch it during the fantasy playoffs or even right before. Absolutely, it’s a huge risk that doesn’t exist with Zeke

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Just now, Johnny B. Goode said:

Yes, Elliot should very much be considered as the 1.01 in redraft. 
Look at this as a potential 2 game suspension (most likely scenario) for both CMC and Barkley. If they are going into the season with that impending at any given time, similar to Zeke in 2018, then how much would you drop them in your rankings? 
They could catch it during the fantasy playoffs or even right before. Absolutely, it’s a huge risk that doesn’t exist with Zeke

I'm waiting to cue the guy that accurately says we don't know he can't get it again. And that guy would be right. We don't know.

Zeke should be by far and away the 1.01 in everyone's rankings right now, given what we know. Shouldn't even be a question, really, but I'm interested in any debate about numbers or strategy here. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

I'm waiting to cue the guy that accurately says we don't know he can't get it again. And that guy would be right. We don't know.

If we are going to believe science and not hysteria, the scientists say it’s very unlikely to catch it a second time, and those who have tested positive a second time likely either are false positives or there is still some trace of virus in them from the first infection.

You can get chicken pox twice, mono twoce, etc. I’m sure it’s possible, but knowing what we know already it’s extremely unlikely

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

just because Elliot has had the virus before does not make him less susceptible to getting it again.

The president of Brazil has had it twice already.

There he is! 

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3 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

If we are going to believe science and not hysteria, the scientists say it’s very unlikely to catch it a second time, and those who have tested positive a second time likely either are false positives or there is still some trace of virus in them from the first infection.

You can get chicken pox twice, mono twoce, etc. I’m sure it’s possible, but knowing what we know already it’s extremely unlikely

This is true. So how much do we fade Elliott given that uncertainty? I say it's highly unlikely. But to go at this season ceteris paribus with this info (his positive test) would be losing the sharp edge on things. 

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

LINK

As usual people believe what they want to believe. Especially about things they do not know about.

I didn't disagree with you. I'm not sure about what the bur in your saddle is. If you read the thread, I'm calling you right. But most scientists put the likelihood low. How do you figure that in? I say you have to proceed with consensus, not anecdotal evidence. 

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

LINK

As usual people believe what they want to believe. Especially about things they do not know about.

He tested positive on July 7 and didn’t announce consecutive negative tests until 3 weeks later.

Do you really believe he caught a disease twice in 3 weeks? Or is it more likely he continued to have the same infection? 

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And yes, scientific consensus has been right most often in this disease's trajectory, not the story of Mary Lou and the Who that one Knew. But what almost every country but ours has done. Follow scientific consensus about spreading a virus. Masks, distance, etc.

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12 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I didn't disagree with you. I'm not sure about what the bur in your saddle is. If you read the thread, I'm calling you right. But most scientists put the likelihood low. How do you figure that in? I say you have to proceed with consensus, not anecdotal evidence. 

I feel that the whole topic is a troll job then. Sorry for responding to it at all.

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28 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I feel that the whole topic is a troll job then. Sorry for responding to it at all.

That makes no sense. Everyone that is doing redraft should be aware of this.

I've seen you in other threads lately and hope you're okay. I have no idea why you'd be calling this a troll job. It's pretty factual. If you use math, Ezekiel should be your first overall pick in redraft. RIght now, consensus has it as McCaffrey in a first tier, Barkley in a second or with Kamara and Zeke, or Kamara and Zeke in a third by themselves.

How is that trolling?

I have a good mind to use some foulness but will refrain.

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30 minutes ago, rockaction said:

That makes no sense. Everyone that is doing redraft should be aware of this.

I've seen you in other threads lately and hope you're okay. I have no idea why you'd be calling this a troll job. It's pretty factual. If you use math, Ezekiel should be your first overall pick in  redraft. RIght now, consensus has it as McCaffrey in a first tier, Barkley in a second or with Kamara and Zeke, or Kamara and Zeke in a third by themselves.

How is that trolling?

I have a good mind to use some foulness but will refrain.

Your line up won’t get zero when they sit out for covid. You will play your back ups. So likely you lose 5 or 6 points per game out. So this would be 18 points or so for 3 weeks. So in my ppr leagues this means CMC is still 47 points up after taking off that 18 points. And Elliot would effectively be ahead of Barkley by 6 points. So I think I would Go CMC and deliberate a bit on Barkley vs Zeke. Unless I am thinking about this wrong. 

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Just now, Blackbear said:

Your line up won’t get zero when they sit out for covid. You will play your back ups. So likely you lose 5 or 6 points per game out. So this would be 18 points or so for 3 weeks. So in my ppr leagues this means CMC is still 47 points up after taking off that 18 points. And Elliot would effectively be ahead of Barkley by 6 points. So I think I would Go CMC and deliberate a bit on Barkley vs Zeke. Unless I am thinking about this wrong. 

Good point. I would argue dropping from CMC to a RB3 is larger than 5-6 points though 

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If CMC or Barkley were suspended for 2 games to start the year I would still probably take either over Zeke.  Barkley has outscored Zeke by 2ppg over the last two years despite playing injured last year and CMC has outscored Zeke by 6.5ppg over the same span.  Those are big differences.

To put that into context Zeke has outscored Leonard Fournette by 1.5ppg over the last two years.  Surely people would take 14 games of Zeke over 16 of Fournette, so why would that not be the case to get Barkley/CMC over Zeke?  And that's not even accounting for my personal worry that Zeke takes a step back this year as we've seen recently of guys in his situation in their mid-20's with a big workload who just got paid their monster contract.

The wildcard of course is if those 2 games come during the fantasy playoffs, which would be crushing.  But I think the odds of that are fairly low, I think we'll likely see the biggest issues with it spreading early on, and that also doesn't account for the potential that they miss 0 games.  In terms of timing, any one of them could just as easily tweak their ankle in week 12 and miss the fantasy playoffs.

 

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3 minutes ago, Blackbear said:

Your line up won’t get zero when they sit out for covid. You will play your back ups. So likely you lose 5 or 6 points per game out. So this would be 18 points or so for 3 weeks. So in my ppr leagues this means CMC is still 47 points up after taking off that 18 points. And Elliot would effectively be ahead of Barkley by 6 points. So I think I would Go CMC and deliberate a bit on Barkley vs Zeke. Unless I am thinking about this wrong. 

Very good point. But in PPR in my league (I'm thin at RB) I think I drop a little more than that with McCaffrey out. I happen to roster Zeke in this league, which got me thinking about his value and why I started this thread.

Not to troll.

I'm thinking about his value because I've been getting offers (really grotesquely bad ones) for Elliott right now. 

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5 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Good point. I would argue dropping from CMC to a RB3 is larger than 5-6 points though 

Ok, well maybe then if we use 10 points then it means CMC still better than Zeke by 35 points. And Zeke better than Barkley by 18 points.

So maybe I would swap Zeke into 2nd spot.

I think the league should do an antibody test and tell us who has already had it. 😀

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1 minute ago, Blackbear said:

Ok, well maybe then if we use 10 points then it means CMC still better than Zeke by 35 points. And Zeke better than Barkley by 18 points.

So maybe I would swap Zeke into 2nd spot.

I think the league should do an antibody test and tell us who has already had it. 😀

Or get some leaks on if any are having players on hydroxy all year. 2020... the ultimate insider year

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9 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Very good point. But in PPR in my league (I'm thin at RB) I think I drop a little more than that with McCaffrey out. I happen to roster Zeke in this league, which got me thinking about his value and why I started this thread.

Not to troll.

I'm thinking about his value because I've been getting offers (really grotesquely bad ones) for Elliott right now. 

My third is Gurley, and fourth is Conner. So that is why I was thinking 6.

It is a good point though. I wish I knew if others got it already.

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4 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Or get some leaks on if any are having players on hydroxy all year. 2020... the ultimate insider year

Ya know. What if players were like screw it, let’s try to get it early so it won’t impact my season. How crazy that would be, but if you had a team do that and get over it now. They may have a huge advantage of not being interrupted during the season costing their teams wins. No doubt Belichick had a crop duster fly over top of the practice field today saying “we really had to do something about the mosquitos, sorry guys”. 🙈🤣😀

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

He's already had COVID. McCaffrey and Barkley have not tested positive yet, or have at least had it kept private. But you have to assume potential for missed games into projections for the season. If the protocol is a minimum of seventeen days, then that's at least two games potentially missed by those guys.

Any discussion points here would be welcome.

Don't troll the hot sauce guy, he's salivating at the chance to comment about sick babies in texas and get this locked.

In terms of the topic, I think you could put him in the conversation of Barkley for sure.  I think CMC's upside is just too big to drop him below Zeke.  Even though Zeke is less likely to miss games, I wouldn't bump him quite to the #1 spot, but it wouldn't be crazy if you want to play it safe.

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25 minutes ago, Deamon said:

🤣

Oh man, not this garbage again.

Why is it garbage? Honest question. No doubt he has had antibodies develop but we don't know how long those last. Maybe it's actually a disadvantage to get it earlier? No one on this thread has any idea whether or not Zeke can get it again (or whether he will have no ill-effects from having already had it).

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Just now, RushHour said:

Why is it garbage? Honest question. No doubt he has had antibodies develop but we don't know how long those last. Maybe it's actually a disadvantage to get it earlier? No one on this thread has any idea whether or not Zeke can get it again (or whether he will have no ill-effects from having already had it).

You must be new here. We've had 3 threads locked already because of the same discussions. Not one person said it was impossible to get it again...  but almost nobody has. So yes, the facts, and doctors, both suggest LESS (not no) chance of acquiring it a 2nd time. 

Anyways let's keep this on football, if you wanna see discussions on the odds someone can get it twice, take a look through the other locked threads. 

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5 minutes ago, Deamon said:

You must be new here. We've had 3 threads locked already because of the same discussions. Not one person said it was impossible to get it again...  but almost nobody has. So yes, the facts, and doctors, both suggest LESS (not no) chance of acquiring it a 2nd time. 

Anyways let's keep this on football, if you wanna see discussions on the odds someone can get it twice, take a look through the other locked threads. 

The first post in the thread seems to assume this, even if not explicitly stated. Otherwise, why make a thread suggesting that Zeke won't miss games/time, while other RBs will?

Anyway, I don't have any interest in back and forth about these issues and I guess we agree on that. I wasn't aware there were locked threads. If so, perhaps this didn't need a new thread. 

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6 minutes ago, RushHour said:

The first post in the thread seems to assume this, even if not explicitly stated. Otherwise, why make a thread suggesting that Zeke won't miss games/time, while other RBs will?

Anyway, I don't have any interest in back and forth about these issues and I guess we agree on that. I wasn't aware there were locked threads. If so, perhaps this didn't need a new thread. 

Agreed prob didn't need a new one.  Don't think I saw anywhere saying he won't miss time, just that he's less likely. That is the common believe among scientists. Even if it's a tiny bit more resistant than someone who hasn't had it, we should be looking for any and every edge here, even if it's small. 

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On 7/28/2020 at 10:00 PM, Deamon said:

Agreed prob didn't need a new one.  Don't think I saw anywhere saying he won't miss time, just that he's less likely. That is the common believe among scientists. Even if it's a tiny bit more resistant than someone who hasn't had it, we should be looking for any and every edge here, even if it's small. 

Am new here. Agreed we should be looking for every edge, but, cant discuss covid effects?  That makes no sense. 

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4 hours ago, WinnST00 said:

Am new here. Agreed we should be looking for every edge, but, cant discuss covid effects?  That makes no sense. 

There's threads in the other fbg forums about Covid's effect on the NFL.  Unfortunately here it turns into talk about babies in Texas who have Covid.  Most common thoughts out there are that you can get it again, but it's LESS COMMON than getting it a first time.  So the Original Poster has a valid point that Zeke could be considered #1 now since he had it.  However, the thread will just turn into another $hit$how of non-zeke talk and will be locked.

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I think this doesn't move the needle that much.

To put some rough guesses out there, let's say that a typical player has a 10% chance of getting covid during the season, and on average someone who gets covid will miss 4 games. That's 0.4 missed games in expectation, or 1/40th of a season.

So that shouldn't change your rankings very much.

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9 hours ago, Deamon said:

There's threads in the other fbg forums about Covid's effect on the NFL.  Unfortunately here it turns into talk about babies in Texas who have Covid.  Most common thoughts out there are that you can get it again, but it's LESS COMMON than getting it a first time.  So the Original Poster has a valid point that Zeke could be considered #1 now since he had it.  However, the thread will just turn into another $hit$how of non-zeke talk and will be locked.

People around here that predictable huh?  

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On 7/28/2020 at 10:26 PM, rockaction said:

He's already had COVID. McCaffrey and Barkley have not tested positive yet, or have at least had it kept private. But you have to assume potential for missed games into projections for the season. If the protocol is a minimum of seventeen days, then that's at least two games potentially missed by those guys.

Any discussion points here would be welcome.

I have #2 overall in a redraft and was thinking of this exact same thing....

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2 hours ago, notoriousbill said:

I have #2 overall in a redraft and was thinking of this exact same thing....

Tough call.  I wouldn't boost him above CMC so if CMC is there you gotta take him.  But tough call between him and Barkley.  I'd prob still lean Barkley if your league is PPR.... if its standard I'd maybe take Zeke.

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