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11 hours ago, Steeler said:

Whenever I get eliminated from this contest I stop caring about my roster and never follow up to see "what if" I made the cut in the week I was eliminated - literally have never done it - until just now.  And I should have continued to not care about it because I discovered I would still be alive had I not missed the cut in week 5

:cry:

:kicksrock:

I torture myself every year, all the way til the playoff contest.  I try to learn for the following year.  I have come to realize a few things:

1) I am good at picking D's
2) I suck at picking QB's
3) I always threaten to try an 18-man roster and never do it

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I have some good news about Calcomatic.com - I was able to get the MFL data to work!!!!!!    Big props to @Alberta Clipper for doing all the leg work/research/setup on the MFL side of things! How

I went through this thread and counted 67 entries to make @Joe Bryant noon ET cut off.  Here they are, by page number of this thread: 1 - @dbc925 2 - @-OZ-  @Milkman  @Stray Doug  @barackdhouse

Started the week with 32 left from Joe's extra contest.  Here is how they finished the week (cut was 121.15)... @BroadwayG  173.80 @Go DC Yourself  165.45 @Kujjie  161.25 @themeanmachine  160.75

2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I torture myself every year, all the way til the playoff contest.  I try to learn for the following year.  I have come to realize a few things:

1) I am good at picking D's
2) I suck at picking QB's
3) I always threaten to try an 18-man roster and never do it

To paraphrase Mr. Sigmund Bloom, any strategy works if you pick the right players. This contest is fun to follow because there are so many ways to get into the final rounds. I love the data-based summaries of who's won in the past, but sometimes a contrarian strategy is the lineup that earns the prizes. 

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11 hours ago, MikesVikes said:

I’m surprised that we already have a cutoff for the week. The first half isn’t even complete.

QB
19.01% own Russell Wilson = 26.05 pts
14.65% own Kyler Murray = 26.95 pts
Overall, 31.88% of all remaining teams own one of these guys (only 9 entries own both).  Actually, for these studs, these scores suck.  Wilson has only 1 worse game (last week), and Murray's worst game prior was 31.40.  Still, since nearly a third of all teams scored at least 26 points, these guys are the biggest line movers.

RB
16.44% own Chase Edmonds = 12.90 pts
11.88% own Chris Carson = 0.00 pts
2.57% own Kenyan Drake = 14.00 pts
1.39% own Carlos Hyde = 16.50 pts
0.20% own Rashaad Penny = 0.00 pts
Three RB's scored well, but 2 of them are rare.  Edmonds did the heavy lifting here.

WR
24.16% own DK Metcalf = 13.60 pts
10.89% own Tyler Lockett = 21.70 pts
9.70% own Christian Kirk = 9.00 pts
5.54% own Larry Fitzgerald = 14.20 pts
4.36% own DeAndre Hopkins = 10.10 pts
1.58% own Andy Isabella = 1.60 pts
I thought the Wilson/Lockett/Metcalf trifecta was more common, but only 5 entries left have them all.

TE
6.14% own Greg Olsen = 5.00 pts
2.97% own Will Dissly = 2.50 pts
You have to be common or score well to make a difference, and these guys did neither.

K
5.74% own Jason Myers = 9.10 pts
2.97% own Zane Gonzalez = 3.00 pts
At least a few Myers owners are relatively happy.

D
15.45% own SEA defense = 3.00 pts
8.12% own ARI defense = 3.00 pts
112 entries own at least one of these teams, but for their sake, I hope they own other D's.

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With only 2 games left, my ghost entry is looking good...

QB - Watson - 38.80
RB1 - Gibson - 16.90
RB2 - Gore - 14.10
WR1 - Allen - 36.50
WR2 - Thielen - 32.30
TE - Goedert - 21.10
Flex1 - Akins - 15.80
Flex2 - Fitzgerald - 14.20
K - Boswell - 12.10
D - CIN - 4.00
Total - 205.80

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Cut line at 153.95 heading into the LAR/TB finale.  Ownership numbers are:

QB - Brady (86 = 17.03%), Goff (28 = 5.54%)
I didn't take the time to go through each roster to see what other QB's the Brady & Goff owners have, but Brady is quite common and could push the line.

RB - Brown (52 = 10.30%), Akers (38 = 7.52%), Jones (26 = 5.15%), McCoy (9 = 1.78%), Henderson (5 = 0.99%), Fournette (2 = 0.40%)
Last week, the Rams couldn't decide, so they gave Akers 10 touches and 8 each for Brown & Henderson.  TB gave Rojo 23 carries.

WR - Woods (36 = 7.13%), Kupp (30 = 5.94%), Evans (21 = 4.16%), Godwin (16 = 3.17%), Reynolds (7 = 1.39%), Brown (3 = 0.59%)
Not a ton of commonality here, because none started out in the top 30.  A few explosive guys here.

TE - Gronkowski (30 = 5.94%), Higbee (19 = 3.76%), Everett (14 = 2.77%), Brate (6 = 1.19%)
Alot of double digit scores already from some of the most common TE's.  Gronk is currently the 15th most common TE, while Higbee sits at 23rd, Everett at 30th, and Brate is 37th.  I have a feeling many teams will be using TE's as flexes this week.

K - Gay (3 = 0.59%)
The only contest kicker started on one team and is now on the other.  Coach McVay won't reveal who is kicker is until the last minute, but it may be Gay.  Either way, Gay is so rare he won't matter.

D - TB (70 = 13.86%), LAR (55 = 10.89%)
Only 5 of the remaining teams own both D's, which means 120 entries may be using the scores from these D's.  My guess is these 2 D's will move the line the most if they reach double digits.

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2 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

My ghost entry is taunting me and probably will be above the cutline this week as well.

Sloman's a 0 so it's done at 171.25

Good luck to those still sweating The Turk for real!!!

-QG

Taunting?  Try this on for size - my ghost entry would be in first place over 210 right now!

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Well, if I mathed correctly, my ghost entry would have finished at 163.60 this week.  Currently above the cut but that may change by the time the game tonight ends.  It will soften the blow of missing the week 10 cut by less than a TD...

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9 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Cut line at 153.95 heading into the LAR/TB finale.  Ownership numbers are:

QB - Brady (86 = 17.03%), Goff (28 = 5.54%)
I didn't take the time to go through each roster to see what other QB's the Brady & Goff owners have, but Brady is quite common and could push the line.

RB - Brown (52 = 10.30%), Akers (38 = 7.52%), Jones (26 = 5.15%), McCoy (9 = 1.78%), Henderson (5 = 0.99%), Fournette (2 = 0.40%)
Last week, the Rams couldn't decide, so they gave Akers 10 touches and 8 each for Brown & Henderson.  TB gave Rojo 23 carries.

WR - Woods (36 = 7.13%), Kupp (30 = 5.94%), Evans (21 = 4.16%), Godwin (16 = 3.17%), Reynolds (7 = 1.39%), Brown (3 = 0.59%)
Not a ton of commonality here, because none started out in the top 30.  A few explosive guys here.

TE - Gronkowski (30 = 5.94%), Higbee (19 = 3.76%), Everett (14 = 2.77%), Brate (6 = 1.19%)
Alot of double digit scores already from some of the most common TE's.  Gronk is currently the 15th most common TE, while Higbee sits at 23rd, Everett at 30th, and Brate is 37th.  I have a feeling many teams will be using TE's as flexes this week.

K - Gay (3 = 0.59%)
The only contest kicker started on one team and is now on the other.  Coach McVay won't reveal who is kicker is until the last minute, but it may be Gay.  Either way, Gay is so rare he won't matter.

D - TB (70 = 13.86%), LAR (55 = 10.89%)
Only 5 of the remaining teams own both D's, which means 120 entries may be using the scores from these D's.  My guess is these 2 D's will move the line the most if they reach double digits.

You are probably right about the TEs, especially if Higbee scores tonight. My Akins scored 15.8 and even Herndon scored 12.2 this weekend. Josh Jacobs scored 12.9 and just cleared Herndon's score for me. It will be interesting to see how many Dalvin owners get the boot this weekend since there are only 24 of us right now.

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2 hours ago, MikesVikes said:

It will be interesting to see how many Dalvin owners get the boot this weekend since there are only 24 of us right now.

Considering he scored well (24.50), you would assume his survival rate for the week would be very good.  Don't know how the line will move tonight, but for now, only 2 Cook owners are below the line with no players going tonite.  A few more are sure to fall under as soon as the line starts moving (247th & 248th place have no players), while a few more need monster scores from their players.
 

 

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9 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Any guesses how many points the line moves? I’m only up about 35 spots on the cut line. My ship likely sailed.  Wanted 3 more weeks of fun watching! 

2.56 is my guess.  How much buffer do you currently have?

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The final cut is gonna be a tad higher.  Damien Harris and Matt Gay are not being credited in calcomatic.  The team in 263rd place has Gay and will make the finals.  There may be others, but that is just one team I found quickly.

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Before we say congrats to the Three Musketeers, let's say goodbye to @cstruk and @stuckinthemuck.  Getting 9 pts from your last upright QB in week 11 is not how you want to end your season.  Sorry Cstruk.  As for Stuck in the muck, getting past week 11 with all his Giants was gonna be hard enough, but he missed the cut by only a few points.

CONGRATS to the Three Musketeers!!!!!!!!!!!!
@gobrowns33 - Team # 100246
Big Ben is surely gonna be your Most VALUABLE Player for the next three weeks.  Let's hope he hones in on Eric Ebron.  Best of luck, Brownie!

@4th&inches - Team # 103205
Akers scored his 1st NFL TD tonite.  Fingers crossed and hope it's a sign of things to come.  RB corps scares me, but looking good otherwise.

@Raging weasel - Team # 103462
25-player roster whose highest dollar player is Jonathan Taylor ($21).  Fun fact - every contest winner has had at least 2 players over $21.

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5 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Before we say congrats to the Three Musketeers, let's say goodbye to @cstruk and @stuckinthemuck.  Getting 9 pts from your last upright QB in week 11 is not how you want to end your season.  Sorry Cstruk.  As for Stuck in the muck, getting past week 11 with all his Giants was gonna be hard enough, but he missed the cut by only a few points.

CONGRATS to the Three Musketeers!!!!!!!!!!!!
@gobrowns33 - Team # 100246
Big Ben is surely gonna be your Most VALUABLE Player for the next three weeks.  Let's hope he hones in on Eric Ebron.  Best of luck, Brownie!

@4th&inches - Team # 103205
Akers scored his 1st NFL TD tonite.  Fingers crossed and hope it's a sign of things to come.  RB corps scares me, but looking good otherwise.

@Raging weasel - Team # 103462
25-player roster whose highest dollar player is Jonathan Taylor ($21).  Fun fact - every contest winner has had at least 2 players over $21.

Only the 3rd time I've ever made it this far and not sure how considering the hot garbage my WRs are.

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My first time in the playoffs as well and this contest is always the highlight of my season despite me generally bowing out early. Thanks also to the regular posters in this thread. The superstitious side of me couldn't bring myself to jump in until the turk left the building.  Can't say this is my favorite contest team ever but Kelce has dragged me through 11 weeks so far.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2020/103082.php

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Laviska Shenault did it!  With only a single catch for 5 yards in the last 4 weeks, he managed to last the entire contest with a higher than average weekly survival rate.  While I dunno about previous years, I do know he is the only one to do it this year.

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2 hours ago, Smack Tripper said:

Wow made it through for the first time!  

So how does scoring work now?  Still your best lineup from each of the next three weeks for a cumulative total?

Exactly.  Congrats.  What's your team number so we can follow?

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This is also the first time I've made it to the next level. I've had great teams in the past but missed out. My MVP this year is Wilson and Dalvin Cook. My clutch player is Philip Rivers who somehow decided to score 35 points during Wilson's bye week in week six. I made the cut that week by less than 9 points. Many of my stud players were also on bye that week. In fact Chris Thompson's three points counted and Marvin's 2.8 points also counted that week. I had no RB, WR or TE bench scoring that week.

However week five was the closest to cut for me. 4.15 points. That was also the week Brandon Cooks scored 30.1 points, well above his normal week. There isn't much difference between a team that makes it and a team that doesn't most of the time.

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3 hours ago, Smack Tripper said:

Wow made it through for the first time!  

So how does scoring work now?  Still your best lineup from each of the next three weeks for a cumulative total?

Anybody know? This is also my first time making it this far and was wondering the same thing.

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Just now, top dog said:

Anybody know? This is also my first time making it this far and was wondering the same thing.

Same scoring like every week, add up weeks 12 thru 14 for total.  Congrats, and what's your team number?

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44 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Exactly.  Congrats.  What's your team number so we can follow?

Thanks!   Feels like a major dragon slayer just to do it once!   Been a big process of trial and error and if you make a mistake it takes a year to fix it!  But it also helps to be lucky!
 

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2020/105671.php

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57 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Laviska Shenault did it!  With only a single catch for 5 yards in the last 4 weeks, he managed to last the entire contest with a higher than average weekly survival rate.  While I dunno about previous years, I do know he is the only one to do it this year.

I knew the shark move was to rooster him :(

-QG

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Despite scoring 19 points in week 11, the last remaining Michael Thomas owners perished.  I am not gonna thumb through every roster for the last 20 years, but I will assume Thomas just became the most common player ever to become extinct.  He started with 1153 owners.  He was on 11.28% of all entries!

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Ownership numbers for the finals

QB
Roethlisberger - 77
Wilson - 54
Rivers - 44
Brady - 42
Cousins - 41
Fitzpatrick - 35
Burrow - 32
Carr - 32
Murray - 31
Rodgers - 29
Minshew - 28
Newton - 28
Bridgewater - 26
Prescott - 21
Stafford - 21
Goff - 18
Brees - 16
Tannehill - 16
Lock - 12
Mahomes - 12
Watson - 11
Tagovailoa - 10
Garoppolo - 9
Darnold - 7
Mayfield - 7
Allen - 6
Haskins - 6
Jones - 6
Ryan - 6
Taylor - 6
Dalton - 5
Herbert - 5
Hill - 4
Trubisky - 4
Jackson - 3
Winston - 3
Love - 2
Hurts - 1
Wentz - 1
Foles - 0
Mariota - 0
Stidham - 0

# of teams with 1 QB - 3
# of teams with 2 QB's - 76
# of teams with 3 QB's - 135
# of teams with 4 QB's - 33
# of teams with 5 QB's - 5
Fun fact - The overall contest survival rate is 2.46%.  The survival rate of those with just 1 QB is 2.68%, while having 2 QB's brings you down to 2.00%.

Least spent - $18 (3-way tie among the teams with just 1 QB - 2 have Murray, 1 has Watson)
Most spent - $63 (Mahomes, Wilson, Brady, Trubisky)

 

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11 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Before we say congrats to the Three Musketeers, let's say goodbye to @cstruk and @stuckinthemuck.  Getting 9 pts from your last upright QB in week 11 is not how you want to end your season.  Sorry Cstruk.  As for Stuck in the muck, getting past week 11 with all his Giants was gonna be hard enough, but he missed the cut by only a few points.

CONGRATS to the Three Musketeers!!!!!!!!!!!!
@gobrowns33 - Team # 100246
Big Ben is surely gonna be your Most VALUABLE Player for the next three weeks.  Let's hope he hones in on Eric Ebron.  Best of luck, Brownie!

@4th&inches - Team # 103205
Akers scored his 1st NFL TD tonite.  Fingers crossed and hope it's a sign of things to come.  RB corps scares me, but looking good otherwise.

@Raging weasel - Team # 103462
25-player roster whose highest dollar player is Jonathan Taylor ($21).  Fun fact - every contest winner has had at least 2 players over $21.

1st time making it this far. I already feel like a winner :D

Thanks for continuing to send the weekly updates for everyone, @TheWinz

Good luck all!

 

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