Footballguys Subscriber Contest is LIVE

[Shaunz33 110]

23 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Last year, TEN gave up 90 fantasy points to opposing D's
8 INT's x 2 points = 16 points
56 sacks x 1 point = 56 points
9 fumbles lost x 2 points = 18 points

First 6 games with Mariota = 37 points = 6.2 per game
Last 10 games with Tannehill = 53 points = 5.3 per game

I haven't finished counting, but my guess is that TEN is very close to the middle of the pack.  If you look at Tannehill's first 6 years in Miami, it's reasonable to believe he can keep his INT's down in 2020.  He averaged over 3 sacks a game last year, and that he may not be able to improve on.

From what I can see so far, I would consider them an average team for a D to face.

Oops I meant take Tenn D for $3. Their weeks 12-14 (contest finals) they play Ind, Cle, Jax. 

[TheWinz 2,923]

1 minute ago, Shaunz33 said:

Oops I meant take Tenn D for $3. Their weeks 12-14 (contest finals) they play Ind, Cle, Jax. 

No problem, haha.  I am doing the math regardless.  I considered using Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule for opposing D's, but it doesn't work for the subscriber contest scoring.  This contest doesn't take yardage or scoring into account at all.  I have decided to create my own Strength of Schedule, and from what I can tell after only doing 8 teams, the Saints are gonna be the worst team to face, once again.  I will let you know how IND, CLE, and JAX fare.

[BassNBrew 10,571]

7 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

and from what I can tell after only doing 8 teams, the Saints are gonna be the worst team to face, once again.  I will let you know how IND, CLE, and JAX fare.

Until Brees gets hurt or Covided and Winston is starting 

[Shaunz33 110]

9 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

No problem, haha.  I am doing the math regardless.  I considered using Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule for opposing D's, but it doesn't work for the subscriber contest scoring.  This contest doesn't take yardage or scoring into account at all.  I have decided to create my own Strength of Schedule, and from what I can tell after only doing 8 teams, the Saints are gonna be the worst team to face, once again.  I will let you know how IND, CLE, and JAX fare.

Yeah Will be interesting who has easiest for those 3 weeks. 

[TheWinz 2,923]

25 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Until Brees gets hurt or Covided and Winston is starting 

Ain't that a hoot.  They could go from the worst team to face to the best  

[Stinkin Ref 1,298]

On 8/20/2020 at 7:54 PM, TheWinz said:

This is why you post your teams.  Nice to have a 2nd set of eyes

Uhhh.....isn’t the point to try  beat everyone else.....why would you help point out flaws in somebody else’s lineup...

ive never really understood that in here

Edited August 22, 2020 by Stinkin Ref

[TheWinz 2,923]

4 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

Uhhh.....isn’t the point to try  beat everyone else.....why would you help point out flaws in somebody else’s lineup...

ive never really understood that in here

Very fair question.  I think the reason people offer advice in here is in the hopes that a regular poster wins.  If you don't want to post your submission, but want a 2nd  set of eyes, feel free to PM any number of regulars in here.  I am sure they will give it a once over for you. 

[TheWinz 2,923]

And @Stinkin Ref I forgot to give you my pro tip for the contest - take Philip Rivers  

[Stinkin Ref 1,298]

1 minute ago, TheWinz said:

Very fair question.  I think the reason people offer advice in here is in the hopes that a regular poster wins.  If you don't want to post your submission, but want a 2nd  set of eyes, feel free to PM any number of regulars in here.  I am sure they will give it a once over for you. 

I still don’t get it....and maybe that’s just me but there is literally no reason to help anybody out....sure it might be nice if my mom wins if i don’t or whatever....but if my mom has a putt to win 35G and if she makes it that means I don’t win 35G....I’m sure as hell not giving her a read....honestly it benefits me to give her wrong info....

I get having some discussion and FBG probably likes to see the traffic in the thread and why @Joe Bryant liked your post but all the helping makes no business sense....good chance the people that aren’t “regular posters” are still checking in here and getting the benefit of you pointing out the “flaws”...

[Stinkin Ref 1,298]

And if the non regular posters pony up the $35 or whatever to be in the contest.....this is probably the one thread they do take a look at since it happens every year...

[Stinkin Ref 1,298]

I think people sometimes want to try and show how smart they are and how in depth they have plotted the strategies and just can’t help themselves and feel the need to share it with everybody and get some online pats on the back or something....

[TheWinz 2,923]

2 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I think people sometimes want to try and show how smart they are and how in depth they have plotted the strategies and just can’t help themselves and feel the need to share it with everybody and get some online pats on the back or something....

I agree with you 100%.  Now can you do me a favor and like my post?  I want to raise my reputation score.

[TheWinz 2,923]

10 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

And if the non regular posters pony up the $35 or whatever to be in the contest.....this is probably the one thread they do take a look at since it happens every year...

And no, the non regulars typically don't post their rosters in here, so I doubt they spend time combing through the thread.  And if they do, wouldn't that make them regulars?

[Stinkin Ref 1,298]

22 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

And no, the non regulars typically don't post their rosters in here, so I doubt they spend time combing through the thread.  And if they do, wouldn't that make them regulars?

If I am non “regular” and I pony up $ to FBG to play in their contest....once I do subscribe, I am definitely coming in this thread to gather the free intel and strategy and work that you do for me.....and are so happy to share.....(its up to me how much credit I give it)....and the entire time, I do not post anything, let alone my possible “real” lineup...because  I may help YOU out by doing so if you see my lineup....if I do decide to post a little something, it will be so hopefully you  give me even more information that will help me....and I will in turn try and steer you away from anything that might be remotely helpful to you.....

and winz when I say you....I am not actually meaning you....just anybody in general that “helps” other people or points out flaws...

Edited August 22, 2020 by Stinkin Ref

[TheWinz 2,923]

4 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

If I am non “regular” and I pony up $ to FBG to play in their contest....once I do subscribe, I am definitely coming in this thread to gather the free intel and strategy and work that you do for me.....and are so happy to share.....(its up to me how much credit I give it)....and the entire time, I do not post anything, let alone my possible “real” lineup...because  I may help you out by doing so if you see my lineup....if I do decide to post, it will be so hopefully you do give me more information that will help me....and I will in turn try and steer you away from anything that might remotely helpful to you.....

Are you gonna post your lineup or what?

[Stinkin Ref 1,298]

3 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Are you gonna post your lineup or what?

.....sure what the hell....

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $27
QB - Drew Lock - DEN/8 - $8
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/10 - $34
RB - Raheem Mostert - SF/11 - $20
RB - Kareem Hunt - CLE/9 - $17
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - A.J. Green - CIN/9 - $16
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Emmanuel Sanders - NO/6 - $11
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/10 - $10
WR - Sammy Watkins - KC/10 - $10
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF/11 - $5
WR - Kendrick Bourne - SF/11 - $3
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/9 - $15
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/7 - $6
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

[TheWinz 2,923]

This is for @Shaunz33, so @Stinkin Ref please disregard.

The combo of IND, CLE and JAX isn't as tasty as you'd think.  More to come...

[TheWinz 2,923]

3 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

.....sure what the hell....

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $27
QB - Drew Lock - DEN/8 - $8
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/10 - $34
RB - Raheem Mostert - SF/11 - $20
RB - Kareem Hunt - CLE/9 - $17
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - A.J. Green - CIN/9 - $16
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Emmanuel Sanders - NO/6 - $11
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/10 - $10
WR - Sammy Watkins - KC/10 - $10
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF/11 - $5
WR - Kendrick Bourne - SF/11 - $3
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/9 - $15
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/7 - $6
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

I kinda like your team.

QB - When you take a top stud like Mahomes, you expect to use him nearly every week, so his week 10 bye is just about the most important thing, along with weeks 12-14.  Lock is on the road vs the Raiders week 10, and that is considered a tasty matchup.  Mahomes and Lock mesh well.

RB - I like Zeke, as he is a ball hog.  Follow Jerick McKinnon for updates on the backfield split in SF.  Maybe 2020 Chubb/Hunt can be the 2017 Kamara/Ingram.  As for your last 2 RB's, you do know their combined age is 72, right?  I think you are a bit light here.

WR - I like them.  And their bye week conflicts don't scare me.

TE - Pretty strong at TE.  Maybe even a few weeks where you use all 3 of their scores.

PK - Two guys that shouldn't lose their jobs.  I would actually prefer 3 for $2, but are there 3 kickers for $2 that you won't have to worry about?

TD - They mesh well.  Would consider swapping out the Raiders for the Giants.  They have a great game vs Joe Burrow in week 12, while KC is facing Brady, and ARI is facing Belichick.

[Joe Bryant 10,303]

8 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I still don’t get it....and maybe that’s just me but there is literally no reason to help anybody out....sure it might be nice if my mom wins if i don’t or whatever....but if my mom has a putt to win 35G and if she makes it that means I don’t win 35G....I’m sure as hell not giving her a read....honestly it benefits me to give her wrong info....

I get having some discussion and FBG probably likes to see the traffic in the thread and why @Joe Bryant liked your post but all the helping makes no business sense....good chance the people that aren’t “regular posters” are still checking in here and getting the benefit of you pointing out the “flaws”...

I do think that's one thing that separates us from a lot of sites. Our people here have always been open to helping. 

At the very least, it makes good discussion. 

I totally get the idea though of not wanting to share. That's a big deal in the DFS space with some people. We've always been adamant the other way though. 

And thanks for sharing your lineup...  

As tough as these prices are though, I'd imagine teams today will look quite a bit different at final lock. Have fun. 

[BassNBrew 10,571]

9 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

.....sure what the hell....

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $27
QB - Drew Lock - DEN/8 - $8
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/10 - $34
RB - Raheem Mostert - SF/11 - $20
RB - Kareem Hunt - CLE/9 - $17
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - A.J. Green - CIN/9 - $16
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Emmanuel Sanders - NO/6 - $11
WR - Mecole Hardman - KC/10 - $10
WR - Sammy Watkins - KC/10 - $10
WR - Cole Beasley - BUF/11 - $5
WR - Kendrick Bourne - SF/11 - $3
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/9 - $15
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/7 - $6
PK - Randy Bullock - CIN/9 - $3
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/10 - $4
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2
TD - Las Vegas Raiders - LV/6 - $2

I like it. May just use it to win first place. Now that would be funny

[barackdhouse 2,039]

Hey @TheWinz good stuff as usual. On choosing defense(s), if we don't get points for scoring or yardage, might we aim for teams with shootout matchups? The more passing and plays ran the more likelihood for sacks and pick 6s no? 

Are there defense combos in those playoff weeks that would project to be part of shootouts?

[TheWinz 2,923]

56 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Hey @TheWinz good stuff as usual. On choosing defense(s), if we don't get points for scoring or yardage, might we aim for teams with shootout matchups? The more passing and plays ran the more likelihood for sacks and pick 6s no? 

Are there defense combos in those playoff weeks that would project to be part of shootouts?

That is a great point!  Remember the KC/LAR game in week 11 two years ago?  Final score was 54 to 51, and there were 8 sacks, 4 lost fumbles, 3 INT's, and 3 defensive TD's.  Both D's scored well on that Monday night game, and I was cut from the contest.  

As for the question, I started crunching numbers and will get back to you.  I can say though, you gotta expect fireworks in week 12 when KC goes down to TB.

[JamieMurphy 419]

No Bryce Love...he could have been a sneaky bargain.

[SeniorVBDStudent 730]

On 8/21/2020 at 9:03 PM, TheWinz said:

Will do.  Gimme a few minutes..

It's funny because I took his post to mean look at Tenn as a defense that plays sloppy offenses.

Edited August 23, 2020 by SeniorVBDStudent
:honda:

[TheWinz 2,923]

3 hours ago, JamieMurphy said:

No Bryce Love...he could have been a sneaky bargain.

Always a few folks left off.  This year FBG didn't even try to figure out the kicker battles.  They simply offered whoever was the projected starter when they opened the contest.  I think Catanzaro was homeless about 30 minutes after the contest started.

[TheWinz 2,923]

20 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Hey @TheWinz good stuff as usual. On choosing defense(s), if we don't get points for scoring or yardage, might we aim for teams with shootout matchups? The more passing and plays ran the more likelihood for sacks and pick 6s no? 

Are there defense combos in those playoff weeks that would project to be part of shootouts?

Sorry it took some time, but I was crunching.  I went back to last year's contest and charted all fantasy pts by D's, then charted all fantasy points given up by O's.  I then compared those numbers to actual game scores to see if there was a strong correlation to shootouts.  Surprisingly, there really wasn't, with the exception of the Bucs.  Turns out most high scoring games aren't so much shootouts as they are blowouts.

[ConstruxBoy 1,137]

Here's my entry:

 

QB - Josh Allen - BUF/11 - $16
QB - Joe Burrow - CIN/9 - $11
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/8 - $5
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/11 - $35
RB - Miles Sanders - PHI/9 - $28
RB - Latavius Murray - NO/6 - $12
RB - Chris Thompson - JAX/7 - $5
RB - Benny Snell - PIT/8 - $4
WR - Amari Cooper - DAL/10 - $23
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Jalen Reagor - PHI/9 - $10
WR - Danny Amendola - DET/5 - $5
WR - K.J. Hamler - DEN/8 - $4
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Blake Jarwin - DAL/10 - $9
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/7 - $6
TE - Jordan Akins - HOU/8 - $3
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/10 - $3
PK - Greg Joseph - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $3
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2

Total value: 250

 

As with last year, heavy on guys I want to watch (Bills and Penn State alums). May work in Singletary and Diggs for the former. Think that Godwin and Robinson are too expensive at WR for the latter. Usually add CAR guys for my third want to watch team but the week 13 Bye is no bueno. 

Good luck to all.  

[Hot Sauce Guy 8,910]

I still don't believe anyone's posted lineups. 

 

[TheWinz 2,923]

11 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Here's my entry:

 

QB - Josh Allen - BUF/11 - $16
QB - Joe Burrow - CIN/9 - $11
QB - Dwayne Haskins - WAS/8 - $5
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/11 - $35
RB - Miles Sanders - PHI/9 - $28
RB - Latavius Murray - NO/6 - $12
RB - Chris Thompson - JAX/7 - $5
RB - Benny Snell - PIT/8 - $4
WR - Amari Cooper - DAL/10 - $23
WR - DK Metcalf - SEA/6 - $18
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/7 - $17
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/8 - $13
WR - Jalen Reagor - PHI/9 - $10
WR - Danny Amendola - DET/5 - $5
WR - K.J. Hamler - DEN/8 - $4
TE - Mike Gesicki - MIA/11 - $12
TE - Blake Jarwin - DAL/10 - $9
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/7 - $6
TE - Jordan Akins - HOU/8 - $3
PK - Mike Badgley - LAC/10 - $3
PK - Greg Joseph - TEN/7 - $2
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/8 - $2
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $3
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/7 - $2
TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/8 - $2

Total value: 250

 

As with last year, heavy on guys I want to watch (Bills and Penn State alums). May work in Singletary and Diggs for the former. Think that Godwin and Robinson are too expensive at WR for the latter. Usually add CAR guys for my third want to watch team but the week 13 Bye is no bueno. 

Good luck to all.  

I am certainly not going to argue with last year's 8th place finisher.  Congrats!!!

[mphtrilogy 2,892]

will probably keep 75% of this

 

QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN/7 - $10
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8
QB - Drew Lock - DEN/8 - $8
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $7
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/9 - $28
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/10 - $27
RB - Ito Smith - ATL/10 - $7
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA/6 - $6
RB - Giovani Bernard - CIN/9 - $6
RB - Anthony McFarland - PIT/8 - $4
RB - DeAndre Washington - KC/10 - $3
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - Calvin Ridley - ATL/10 - $21
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/6 - $18
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Breshad Perriman - NYJ/11 - $10
WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI/8 - $7
WR - Randall Cobb - HOU/8 - $6
WR - Mohamed Sanu - NE/6 - $5
WR - Demarcus Robinson - KC/10 - $4
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/9 - $3
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $14
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Gerald Everett - LAR/9 - $7
PK - Jason Sanders - MIA/11 - $3
PK - Steve Hauschka - BUF/11 - $3
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/7 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/6 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2

[Solomon Grundy 74]

Here's mine: Note my DEF and K picks are based on estimated strength of schedule without replicating Bye weeks:

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA/6 - $17
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/8 - $11
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/11 - $5
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/6 - $21
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/11 - $18
RB - Ronald Jones - TB/13 - $18
RB - Marlon Mack - IND/7 - $14
RB - Jordan Howard - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Sony Michel - NE/6 - $12
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/7 - $21
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/11 - $11
WR - Tyrell Williams - LV/6 - $5
WR - Tee Higgins - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Josh Reynolds - LAR/9 - $5
WR - Russell Gage - ATL/10 - $5
WR - Chris Conley - JAX/7 - $4
WR - Adam Humphries - TEN/7 - $4
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3
WR - Willie Snead - BAL/8 - $3
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Tyler Eifert - JAX/7 - $6
TE - Devin Asiasi - NE/6 - $4
PK - Justin Tucker - BAL/8 - $6
PK - Greg Zuerlein - DAL/10 - $5
PK - Austin Seibert - CLE/9 - $3
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/8 - $6
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $3
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/9 - $3

My Skill position picks were based first on who is listed as a "starter" per the current ESPN depth charts (except Tagovailoa...I had originally included Fitz-Magick also, but bailed on him as having $9 tied up in MIA QBs seemed a reach to me), then comparing the FBG contest values versus position "tiers" to see where, if any, value lay. My throwaway position was WR, because I view that as very deep this year, so I'm expecting to hit a home run with one guy on a weekly basis.

Last year I finished 430th overall, finally losing in week 13 using an almost identical strategy.

thoughts?

Edited August 26, 2020 by Solomon Grundy

[TheWinz 2,923]

1 hour ago, mphtrilogy said:

will probably keep 75% of this

 

QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN/7 - $10
QB - Kirk Cousins - MIN/7 - $8
QB - Drew Lock - DEN/8 - $8
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $7
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/9 - $28
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/10 - $27
RB - Ito Smith - ATL/10 - $7
RB - Carlos Hyde - SEA/6 - $6
RB - Giovani Bernard - CIN/9 - $6
RB - Anthony McFarland - PIT/8 - $4
RB - DeAndre Washington - KC/10 - $3
RB - Frank Gore - NYJ/11 - $3
WR - Calvin Ridley - ATL/10 - $21
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/6 - $18
WR - Marvin Jones - DET/5 - $13
WR - Breshad Perriman - NYJ/11 - $10
WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI/8 - $7
WR - Randall Cobb - HOU/8 - $6
WR - Mohamed Sanu - NE/6 - $5
WR - Demarcus Robinson - KC/10 - $4
WR - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - PHI/9 - $3
TE - T.J. Hockenson - DET/5 - $14
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Gerald Everett - LAR/9 - $7
PK - Jason Sanders - MIA/11 - $3
PK - Steve Hauschka - BUF/11 - $3
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/8 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/7 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/6 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/10 - $2

I see you went with max roster size.  May turn out to be a smart move during the year of COVID.  A couple thoughts:

- Not a fan of week 7 when Tannehill & Cousins are on their bye, and Darnold faces BUF, while Lock plays KC.  Wouldn't expect much from Darnold vs BUF, so you have to hope for a shootout in the mile high city.

- At RB, when you look at the prices and not the names, you think, boy, this guy is really putting all his eggs in one basket by choosing 2 just starters.  Then you read the names and realize he has done some cuffing.  Hope for your sake you don't need those cuffs.

- BUF was one of only 3 teams to draft a kicker this year.  Monitor the competition between Tyler Bass and Stephen Hauschka.

Good luck this year

[mphtrilogy 2,892]

5 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I see you went with max roster size.  May turn out to be a smart move during the year of COVID.  A couple thoughts:

- Not a fan of week 7 when Tannehill & Cousins are on their bye, and Darnold faces BUF, while Lock plays KC.  Wouldn't expect much from Darnold vs BUF, so you have to hope for a shootout in the mile high city.

- At RB, when you look at the prices and not the names, you think, boy, this guy is really putting all his eggs in one basket by choosing 2 just starters.  Then you read the names and realize he has done some cuffing.  Hope for your sake you don't need those cuffs.

- BUF was one of only 3 teams to draft a kicker this year.  Monitor the competition between Tyler Bass and Stephen Hauschka.

Good luck this year

you nailed it, nice job.. agreed I might tweak those Qbs and probably will as I have moved them around a lot, but I like the idea of a few rb pairings at these prices and risks.... thanks for the tip on the kickers, I have not reached that level of analysis yet...

[TheWinz 2,923]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Here's mine: Note my DEF and K picks are based on estimated strength of schedule without replicating Bye weeks:

QB - Russell Wilson - SEA/6 - $17
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT/8 - $11
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/11 - $5
RB - Chris Carson - SEA/6 - $21
RB - Devin Singletary - BUF/11 - $18
RB - Ronald Jones - TB/13 - $18
RB - Marlon Mack - IND/7 - $14
RB - Jordan Howard - MIA/11 - $14
RB - Sony Michel - NE/6 - $12
RB - Adrian Peterson - WAS/8 - $8
WR - Adam Thielen - MIN/7 - $21
WR - Sterling Shepard - NYG/11 - $11
WR - Tyrell Williams - LV/6 - $5
WR - Tee Higgins - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Josh Reynolds - LAR/9 - $5
WR - Russell Gage - ATL/10 - $5
WR - Chris Conley - JAX/7 - $4
WR - Adam Humphries - TEN/7 - $4
WR - TreQuan Smith - NO/6 - $3
WR - Marquez Valdes-Scantling - GB/5 - $3
WR - Willie Snead - BAL/8 - $3
TE - Chris Herndon - NYJ/11 - $7
TE - Tyler Eifert - JAX/7 - $6
TE - Devin Asiasi - NE/6 - $4
PK - Justin Tucker - BAL/8 - $6
PK - Greg Zuerlein - DAL/10 - $5
PK - Austin Seibert - CLE/9 - $3
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/8 - $6
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/10 - $3
TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/9 - $3

My Skill position picks were based first on who is listed as a "starter" per the current ESPN depth charts (except Tagovailoa...I had originally included Fitz-Magick also, but bailed on him as having $9 tied up in MIA QBs seemed a reach to me), then comparing the FBG contest values versus position "tiers" to see where, if any, value lay. My throwaway position was WR, because I view that as very deep this year, so I'm expecting to hit a home run with one guy on a weekly basis.

Last year I finished 430th overall, finally losing in week 13 using an almost identical strategy.

thoughts?

$26 wrapped up in K's and D's is too much for me, but what do I know?  You made it twice as far as me last year!

[Solomon Grundy 74]

4 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

$26 wrapped up in K's and D's is too much for me, but what do I know?  You made it twice as far as me last year!

After doing this for many years, three at each of those positions is ideal IMHO. I went a touch more expensive than usual at them this year, as I shifted from a cheap to strength-of-schedule tactic.

[TheWinz 2,923]

1 minute ago, mphtrilogy said:

you nailed it, nice job.. agreed I might tweak those Qbs and probably will as I have moved them around a lot, but I like the idea of a few rb pairings at these prices and risks.... thanks for the tip on the kickers, I have not reached that level of analysis yet...

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/sports/2020/08/25/bills-camp-blitz--rookie-wrs-shining

This is the most recent blurb I could find.  My guess is it's Hauschka's job to lose, but teams don't normally draft kickers.  As a matter of fact, only 7 kickers were drafted from 2017 through 2019, and all 7 are currently starters.

[TheWinz 2,923]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

After doing this for many years, three at each of those positions is ideal IMHO. I went a touch more expensive than usual at them this year, as I shifted from a cheap to strength-of-schedule tactic.

I am a nut when it comes to SoS.  I have to ask - are you using the FBG one created by Clayton Gray?

[Solomon Grundy 74]

6 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I am a nut when it comes to SoS.  I have to ask - are you using the FBG one created by Clayton Gray?

No, I am using ESPNs I think...Don't actually recall as I did it originally like the day this contest went up. Decided to stick with it just for the heck of it.

[TheWinz 2,923]

6 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

No, I am using ESPNs I think...Don't actually recall as I did it originally like the day this contest went up. Decided to stick with it just for the heck of it.

I forgot to ask you a follow-up question - do you recall if you compared weekly matchups, or were you simply using a team's overall yearly SoS?

[Hot Sauce Guy 8,910]

6 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

After doing this for many years, three at each of those positions is ideal IMHO. I went a touch more expensive than usual at them this year, as I shifted from a cheap to strength-of-schedule tactic.

Probably a good idea. When I got knocked out last season it was mostly due to having a hurt Engram & another TE on the BYE. I’ll never have less than 3 at a position now. 

[Hot Sauce Guy 8,910]

6 hours ago, TheWinz said:

$26 wrapped up in K's and D's is too much for me, but what do I know?  You made it twice as far as me last year!

I got away with $18, but I’ll a little nervous about it. I’d love to invest in a better defense but I really like what I’ve put together. To get an “elite” D I have to go with 2 defenses instead of 3. 

i still may do this. On the fence. 

[TheWinz 2,923]

1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I got away with $18, but I’ll a little nervous about it. I’d love to invest in a better defense but I really like what I’ve put together. To get an “elite” D I have to go with 2 defenses instead of 3. 

i still may do this. On the fence. 

Data shows multiple cheap D's are better than a lesser amount of expensive ones

[Hot Sauce Guy 8,910]

Just now, TheWinz said:

Data shows multiple cheap D's are better than a lesser amount of expensive ones

I’ve read that a few times now. It’s such a temptation. 

but I have to ask with team D/ST (a format I haven’t played in 6 years) how much is luck & how much is talent. 

is a pick-6 the result of good D/ST play or bad QB play?  Are sacks the result of brilliant pass rushers or poor OL protection?

probably a bit of both, so in a best ball format it’s probably best to diversify. 

i so want the homer pick of the Niners D though.  

[TheWinz 2,923]

2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’ve read that a few times now. It’s such a temptation. 

but I have to ask with team D/ST (a format I haven’t played in 6 years) how much is luck & how much is talent. 

is a pick-6 the result of good D/ST play or bad QB play?  Are sacks the result of brilliant pass rushers or poor OL protection?

probably a bit of both, so in a best ball format it’s probably best to diversify. 

i so want the homer pick of the Niners D though.  

I can provide numbers if you wish...

[Hot Sauce Guy 8,910]

10 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

I can provide numbers if you wish...

Oh no need. I agree with you. It’s just hard to resist the elite. 

but it’s pretty simple: even the best defenses have bad games & even the worst have flukey huge games. So I’m a best ball format diversity is sensible. 

[TheWinz 2,923]

2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

i so want the homer pick of the Niners D though.  

Sad facts...

2019 - Chicago Bears were the highest priced D.  They finished tied for 24th with only 77 points.
2018 - Jacksonville Jaguars were the highest priced D.  They finished tied for 24th with only 81 points.

I can go on...

[Solomon Grundy 74]

15 hours ago, TheWinz said:

I forgot to ask you a follow-up question - do you recall if you compared weekly matchups, or were you simply using a team's overall yearly SoS?

Overall yearly...

[Stray Doug 41]

I bet Chris Thompson's ownership share just went up... I'm definitely looking at adding him to my squad now

[ConstruxBoy 1,137]

Some of us already had him. 

[Stray Doug 41]

I had him on the brain because I considered him earlier in my roster constructions... but actually Armstead may be the bigger beneficiary here.