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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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He refuses to comply with the legitimate oversight powers of congress tipping the balance of checks and balances. He appoints "acting" department heads and other key positions that are supposed to be

I appreciate all the kind posts, really enjoyed the Poll Chat in here. Let’s do it again in 2022.  In what is probably our final poll of the cycle, we have a survey of Pinellas county, FL. Pinella

@caustic Want to thank you for keeping this thread so updated and useful. Now it is time to watch the only poll that really matters. 

5 hours ago, TripItUp said:

CNN just put this out today.

Looks like Trump is closing on Biden....perhaps that Kamala pick isn't cracked up to what liberals were hoping for...or maybe the country is tired of the liberals stance on Covid?

 

And what stance would that be?

I didn't realize the science had a political stance.

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9 hours ago, Don't Noonan said:

I am very confident Trump will win again in November.  

The way its set up, he can still win the electoral votes while losing the popular vote by a few percent.

He's also doing whatever he can to cheat which will probably buy him at least another few percent.

Without Biden having an actual margin of better than 6%, I think we're looking at another 4 years of Trump... or however much longer the country lasts.

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The most important poll to me will be the one after the first debate...Biden could surprise but I will be shocked if he doesn't scare the hell out of people once he is out of the basement and not in a tightly controlled environment.

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15 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Cute, but not helpful for a real discussion. 

I am sorry.  What exactly is the discussion about in this thread?

Is this where we post all the 2020 election polls?

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16 minutes ago, Boston said:

The most important poll to me will be the one after the first debate...Biden could surprise but I will be shocked if he doesn't scare the hell out of people once he is out of the basement and not in a tightly controlled environment.

Listen to Trump speak on any given day...that should scare the hell out of people.

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10 hours ago, TripItUp said:

CNN just put this out today.

Looks like Trump is closing on Biden....perhaps that Kamala pick isn't cracked up to what liberals were hoping for...or maybe the country is tired of the liberals stance on Covid?

 

Also...reading the polling seems Kamala has a pretty favorable view in this poll.

 

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9 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

Listen to Trump speak on any given day...that should scare the hell out of people.

You make that point about 500 times a day...great deflection...what you should be responding to with my post is whether you feel Biden has the mental capacity to be President.

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41 minutes ago, Lehigh98 said:

The way its set up, he can still win the electoral votes while losing the popular vote by a few percent.

He's also doing whatever he can to cheat which will probably buy him at least another few percent.

Without Biden having an actual margin of better than 6%, I think we're looking at another 4 years of Trump... or however much longer the country lasts.

This simply isn't true.  Democrats know their only chance to win is through cheating.  Why do you think Pelosi is pulling the troops back to try and rig the mail in balloting?  Helping the American people with a stimulus bill wasn't urgent but rigging the election was.

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Just now, Boston said:

You make that point about 500 times a day...great deflection...what you should be responding to with my post is whether you feel Biden has the mental capacity to be President.

Its a comparison...not a deflection.  Anyone thinking that Biden is just locked away hiding in his basement wasn't making much of a point in the fist place.   Yes...Biden has the mental capacity to be President.  Yes...IMO he has a better mental capacity than the current occupant of the White House and listening to Trump speak is what confirms that to me.

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2 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

This simply isn't true.  Democrats know their only chance to win is through cheating.  Why do you think Pelosi is pulling the troops back to try and rig the mail in balloting?  Helping the American people with a stimulus bill wasn't urgent but rigging the election was.

Getting more people to vote isn't cheating...except in the eyes of Trump and apparently some of his supporters.  Rig mail in voting?  There is literally zero evidence of such a thing.

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Just now, sho nuff said:

Its a comparison...not a deflection.  Anyone thinking that Biden is just locked away hiding in his basement wasn't making much of a point in the fist place.   Yes...Biden has the mental capacity to be President.  Yes...IMO he has a better mental capacity than the current occupant of the White House and listening to Trump speak is what confirms that to me.

Nice to stay focused...as stated in my first post...I'll believe it when I see it...IMO there is a reason he is not taking many questions and has yet to be in a non-controlled media session...if he does well in the debate or ventures out of the bubble I will then be convinced...yet, as of today listening to him I have serious doubts he is mentally fit and that has nothing to do with his politics.

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28 minutes ago, Don't Noonan said:

This simply isn't true.  Democrats know their only chance to win is through cheating.  Why do you think Pelosi is pulling the troops back to try and rig the mail in balloting?  Helping the American people with a stimulus bill wasn't urgent but rigging the election was.

:popcorn:

Oh my, the intrigue is beyond unsettling.

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We have entered the phase where even though a bunch of other polls show massive leads every time one poll shows Trump doing a little better it's going to be posted to show us liberals how stupid we are

This country is super tired of 170,000 dead.  I can hardly wait to be tired of 200,000 dead.

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2 hours ago, Mile High said:

I don't know how anyone can read these threads, watch the country,  and think the United States of America isn't dead man walking. 

I'm more or less expecting some kind of rioting fallout no matter which of the two wins. What a terrible situation all around.

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4 minutes ago, JIslander said:

I'm actually glad to see this to keep folks on the left from being complacent, but hoping its a poll anomaly.

That said, funny all the wailing on polls in here from the Trump side last election; funnier that this fake news CNN poll is being held up here as legit--

There are new ones out today saying Biden holds a double digit lead

By Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin

August 17, 2020 at 6:00 AM EDT

As the two major political parties prepare to open their national conventions, the race for the White House tilts toward the Democrats, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally over President Trump amid continuing disapproval of the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-poll-shows-biden-harris-hold-double-digit-lead-over-trump-pence/2020/08/16/d5c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

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8 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

Time to take a big sip of coffee and see how the most electable ticket in history is doing:

@ppollingnumbers

CNN Poll In 15 battleground states:

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 48%

Hard to see the value in aggregating 15 battleground states into one metric when each state's outcome is what matters.

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2 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Hard to see the value in aggregating 15 battleground states into one metric when each state's outcome is what matters.

Having trouble finding which states are included in that 15 also. I think some of those included probably weren't battleground states in 2016.

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5 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Having trouble finding which states are included in that 15 also. I think some of those included probably weren't battleground states in 2016.

Not sure this is even remotely accurate but it is 15 states.

Exactly. The Electoral College is not going to come down to close races in 15 states. Tell me OH, FL, PA, WI, and MI. Maybe NV, AZ & NH, IA, CO. NC and GA? Texas? Since when is TX a battleground? ME & MN are a stretch, too.

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8 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Having trouble finding which states are included in that 15 also. I think some of those included probably weren't battleground states in 2016.

From poll details:

including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin)

 

So - 305 people polled would make for a pretty large MOE - need a real stats guy/gal in here to discuss that.

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Just now, The Gator said:

From poll details:

including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin)

 

So - 305 people polled would make for a pretty large MOE - need a real stats guy/gal in here to discuss that.

This gets a little fuzzier - but later in the details:

 

Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. For the sample of 987 registered voters, it is +/- 4.0 percentage points. For the subset of 636 adults living in the 15 battleground states, it is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

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33 minutes ago, The Gator said:

From poll details:

including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin)

 

So - 305 people polled would make for a pretty large MOE - need a real stats guy/gal in here to discuss that.

I don't consider many of those battleground states. If some of those states are really in play (i.e. battleground) Trump's in big trouble - if some other of those states are really in play then Biden's in big trouble. I'd like to see the focus narrowed to Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I used to include Ohio in that group, but I think Ohio is now firmly Republican for the foreseeable future. The rest are reaches or basically of little consequence.

Edited by Gr00vus
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4 hours ago, Mile High said:

I don't know how anyone can read these threads, watch the country,  and think the United States of America isn't dead man walking. 

I think the Trump whitelash is a temporary step backward in a more overarching march toward justice and equality.  Trump's support largely lies in older white people and younger uneducated whites. Among everyone else, Trump is largely seen as the unmitigated disaster that he is. Future generations will look back at this time as an aberration because as those older whites who still harbor racial resentment largely die off, they are being replaced by the least racist and most progressive generation of voters in history.  

We will get through this and come out stronger in the long run.  

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