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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)

I am very confident Trump will win again in November.  
The way its set up, he can still win the electoral votes while losing the popular vote by a few percent.

He's also doing whatever he can to cheat which will probably buy him at least another few percent.

Without Biden having an actual margin of better than 6%, I think we're looking at another 4 years of Trump... or however much longer the country lasts.

 
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The most important poll to me will be the one after the first debate...Biden could surprise but I will be shocked if he doesn't scare the hell out of people once he is out of the basement and not in a tightly controlled environment.

 
Listen to Trump speak on any given day...that should scare the hell out of people.
You make that point about 500 times a day...great deflection...what you should be responding to with my post is whether you feel Biden has the mental capacity to be President.

 
The way its set up, he can still win the electoral votes while losing the popular vote by a few percent.

He's also doing whatever he can to cheat which will probably buy him at least another few percent.

Without Biden having an actual margin of better than 6%, I think we're looking at another 4 years of Trump... or however much longer the country lasts.
This simply isn't true.  Democrats know their only chance to win is through cheating.  Why do you think Pelosi is pulling the troops back to try and rig the mail in balloting?  Helping the American people with a stimulus bill wasn't urgent but rigging the election was.

 
You make that point about 500 times a day...great deflection...what you should be responding to with my post is whether you feel Biden has the mental capacity to be President.
Its a comparison...not a deflection.  Anyone thinking that Biden is just locked away hiding in his basement wasn't making much of a point in the fist place.   Yes...Biden has the mental capacity to be President.  Yes...IMO he has a better mental capacity than the current occupant of the White House and listening to Trump speak is what confirms that to me.

 
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This simply isn't true.  Democrats know their only chance to win is through cheating.  Why do you think Pelosi is pulling the troops back to try and rig the mail in balloting?  Helping the American people with a stimulus bill wasn't urgent but rigging the election was.
Getting more people to vote isn't cheating...except in the eyes of Trump and apparently some of his supporters.  Rig mail in voting?  There is literally zero evidence of such a thing.

 
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Its a comparison...not a deflection.  Anyone thinking that Biden is just locked away hiding in his basement wasn't making much of a point in the fist place.   Yes...Biden has the mental capacity to be President.  Yes...IMO he has a better mental capacity than the current occupant of the White House and listening to Trump speak is what confirms that to me.
Nice to stay focused...as stated in my first post...I'll believe it when I see it...IMO there is a reason he is not taking many questions and has yet to be in a non-controlled media session...if he does well in the debate or ventures out of the bubble I will then be convinced...yet, as of today listening to him I have serious doubts he is mentally fit and that has nothing to do with his politics.

 
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I think 538 has Biden about an 8.4% lead. Which would be almost exactly between the two polls from yesterday. Seems about right.

 
This simply isn't true.  Democrats know their only chance to win is through cheating.  Why do you think Pelosi is pulling the troops back to try and rig the mail in balloting?  Helping the American people with a stimulus bill wasn't urgent but rigging the election was.
:popcorn:

Oh my, the intrigue is beyond unsettling.

 
We have entered the phase where even though a bunch of other polls show massive leads every time one poll shows Trump doing a little better it's going to be posted to show us liberals how stupid we are

This country is super tired of 170,000 dead.  I can hardly wait to be tired of 200,000 dead.

 
I don't know how anyone can read these threads, watch the country,  and think the United States of America isn't dead man walking. 
I'm more or less expecting some kind of rioting fallout no matter which of the two wins. What a terrible situation all around.

 
I'm actually glad to see this to keep folks on the left from being complacent, but hoping its a poll anomaly.

That said, funny all the wailing on polls in here from the Trump side last election; funnier that this fake news CNN poll is being held up here as legit--
There are new ones out today saying Biden holds a double digit lead

By Dan Balz, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin

August 17, 2020 at 6:00 AM EDT

As the two major political parties prepare to open their national conventions, the race for the White House tilts toward the Democrats, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally over President Trump amid continuing disapproval of the president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/post-abc-poll-shows-biden-harris-hold-double-digit-lead-over-trump-pence/2020/08/16/d5c9c312-dfe6-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

 
Having trouble finding which states are included in that 15 also. I think some of those included probably weren't battleground states in 2016.
Not sure this is even remotely accurate but it is 15 states.

Exactly. The Electoral College is not going to come down to close races in 15 states. Tell me OH, FL, PA, WI, and MI. Maybe NV, AZ & NH, IA, CO. NC and GA? Texas? Since when is TX a battleground? ME & MN are a stretch, too.

 
Having trouble finding which states are included in that 15 also. I think some of those included probably weren't battleground states in 2016.
From poll details:

including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin)

So - 305 people polled would make for a pretty large MOE - need a real stats guy/gal in here to discuss that.

 
From poll details:

including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin)

So - 305 people polled would make for a pretty large MOE - need a real stats guy/gal in here to discuss that.
This gets a little fuzzier - but later in the details:

Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. For the sample of 987 registered voters, it is +/- 4.0 percentage points. For the subset of 636 adults living in the 15 battleground states, it is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

 
Even the President doesn't believe the CNN poll.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

·

51m

What’s with

@CNN

POLLS increasing me by 10 points in a short period of time. Maybe they want to take over from

@FoxNews

!

 
From poll details:

including an oversample of 305 adults living in 15 battleground states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin)

So - 305 people polled would make for a pretty large MOE - need a real stats guy/gal in here to discuss that.
I don't consider many of those battleground states. If some of those states are really in play (i.e. battleground) Trump's in big trouble - if some other of those states are really in play then Biden's in big trouble. I'd like to see the focus narrowed to Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. I used to include Ohio in that group, but I think Ohio is now firmly Republican for the foreseeable future. The rest are reaches or basically of little consequence.

 
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Turned on the northshore tea party RW am radio this morning and this was the first thing they said, about this poll, and boyo were they excited. Polls are great again of course.

 
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I don't know how anyone can read these threads, watch the country,  and think the United States of America isn't dead man walking. 
I think the Trump whitelash is a temporary step backward in a more overarching march toward justice and equality.  Trump's support largely lies in older white people and younger uneducated whites. Among everyone else, Trump is largely seen as the unmitigated disaster that he is. Future generations will look back at this time as an aberration because as those older whites who still harbor racial resentment largely die off, they are being replaced by the least racist and most progressive generation of voters in history.  

We will get through this and come out stronger in the long run.  

 

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