Fo the life of me, I can't figure out why Graham is locked into a tight race.
Obviously Trump should be able to drag Graham across the finish line here - but weird that he doesn't mirror Trump's lead.
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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Obviously Trump should be able to drag Graham across the finish line here - but weird that he doesn't mirror Trump's lead.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn · 23m
Biden leads Trump in Nebraska's Second District, 48 to 41, according to new NYT/Siena poll
Nebraska and Maine award Electoral College votes according to congressional district - this is one of those districts that comes into play in a 269-269 scenario.
Biden leads Trump in Nebraska's Second District, 48 to 41, according to new NYT/Siena poll
Nebraska and Maine award Electoral College votes according to congressional district - this is one of those districts that comes into play in a 269-269 scenario.
Not polling specific, but:
Medium Buying @MediumBuying
The Trump campaign is again canceling TV ad schedules that had been booked in Iowa (9/29-10/5 flight)
I don't know if this is simply a cash crunch that has been reported on, or a re-direction of funds to bigger states. Either way, it feels a little like the Clinton campaign ignoring states they thought they were going to win comfortably.
And with Ernst in a tight Senate battle also - this is an odd move.
Medium Buying @MediumBuying
The Trump campaign is again canceling TV ad schedules that had been booked in Iowa (9/29-10/5 flight)
I don't know if this is simply a cash crunch that has been reported on, or a re-direction of funds to bigger states. Either way, it feels a little like the Clinton campaign ignoring states they thought they were going to win comfortably.
And with Ernst in a tight Senate battle also - this is an odd move.
Quick note from Wasserman:
Between this and private surveys, I don’t really view #NE02’s lone Electoral vote as competitive. It’s Biden’s.
ETA - this was a district Trump carried 47-45 in 2016.
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squistion
Footballguy
Ahead of the first debate with Biden on Tuesday night, the latest NBC News/Marist battleground state polls shows Biden with leads in battleground states Michigan and Wisconsin.
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/biden-leads-before-debate-up-in-michigan-wisconsin-92651077833?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_mtp
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/biden-leads-before-debate-up-in-michigan-wisconsin-92651077833?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_mtp
The Z Machine
Footballguy
It would be pretty damning of the EC system if Trump lost the popular vote by 10+ points, but won the EC.
I don't know how one could talk about "the will of the people" or any sort of mandate stemming from such a discrepancy between the two.
Furthermore, if this referendum is partially about filling SCOTUS seats, then a 10+ point popular vote loss likely means that the majority of the population doesn't want Trump selecting SCOTUS nominees.
I don't know how one could talk about "the will of the people" or any sort of mandate stemming from such a discrepancy between the two.
Furthermore, if this referendum is partially about filling SCOTUS seats, then a 10+ point popular vote loss likely means that the majority of the population doesn't want Trump selecting SCOTUS nominees.
I think this could lead to troubling consequences.
You would move very quickly from rural states being concerned about not getting a voice in national politics, to very populous states/cities who will feel their concerns are being ignored.
Normally It is a minority group that feels disenfranchised, but if that happens to a majority of Americans - on top of the minority views winning the SC - I am not sure how that plays out.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
Medium Buying @MediumBuying
SOURCES: The Biden campaign is expected to move forward with huge TV ad outlay in OHIO Current start date for statewide TV ad spending in OH is 10/6; could start sooner
7:59 AM · Sep 28, 2020
Medium Buying @MediumBuying
The Trump campaign is also canceling TV ad schedules that had been booked in Ohio for 9/29-10/5
10:46 AM · Sep 28, 2020
Sammy3469
Footballguy
I mean their only best realistic path involves Florida, PA, and AZ, so I'm not too surprised. If they cancel ad buys in any of those states, then they have real issues. Even IA and OH is understandable since if they can't get PA, OH and IA are meaningless wins anyway.
Right - but as I mentioned before - if you go hard after rural north-east Ohio - it bleeds into Western Pennsylvania - that's an area Trump has to win, and win big.
Maybe they are taking the reverse track - spending heavy in Western PA, and letting that bleed over into Ohio.
If Biden flips Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania - Trump has to flip a Clinton state to win.
I don't see where that flip would come from. Given the likelihood that Neb02 will also flip to Biden - Trump needs to hold Arizona, and flip Minnesota to force a 269-269 tie.
Right now Biden is +9.4 in Minnesota per RCP.
And, Trump can't lose Florida, North Carolina or Ohio - all states that are close enough that he has to defend very rigorously.
I don't see where that flip would come from. Given the likelihood that Neb02 will also flip to Biden - Trump needs to hold Arizona, and flip Minnesota to force a 269-269 tie.
Right now Biden is +9.4 in Minnesota per RCP.
And, Trump can't lose Florida, North Carolina or Ohio - all states that are close enough that he has to defend very rigorously.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Whether you look at consensus forecasts or individual states polling, it’s hard to see a path to 270 for Trump unless he sweeps these 6:
FL GA NC OH PA TX
If he loses any of those six, it’s likely he’s not getting to 270.
Put another way, there are currently 10 different combinations of swing states that get Biden to 270. Trump has no more than 4 paths and almost all of them involve a clean sweep or close to it in most of the “in play“ states.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
That's why Tim was pretty spot on when it said it would come down to PA. I think all of us could easily see Trump winning any or all of those other 5.
I think the fact that Texas is even on this list is a strong indication of the state of the race.
Trump is closer to losing Texas than he is to winning Pennsylvania right now.
He needs to pull something out of his back pocket to get back in that race. If Biden stands tall tomorrow night it could be lights out.
RCP Averages Battleground states:
Minnesota - Biden + 9.4
Wisconsin - Biden +6.3
Pennsylvania - Biden +5.3
Michigan - Biden +5.2
Arizona - Biden +3.4
Ohio - Biden +3.3
Florida - Biden +1.3
North Carolina - Biden +0.8
Georgia - Trump +1.3
Texas - Trump +3.6
WI, PA, MI -> Biden = 269
Trump has to sweep the rest (including Minnesota) to be re-elected in the House, and probably serve with Kamala Harris as VP.
Minnesota - Biden + 9.4
Wisconsin - Biden +6.3
Pennsylvania - Biden +5.3
Michigan - Biden +5.2
Arizona - Biden +3.4
Ohio - Biden +3.3
Florida - Biden +1.3
North Carolina - Biden +0.8
Georgia - Trump +1.3
Texas - Trump +3.6
WI, PA, MI -> Biden = 269
Trump has to sweep the rest (including Minnesota) to be re-elected in the House, and probably serve with Kamala Harris as VP.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
IDK man
Hillary was a 7:1 mortal lock - everyone was wrong
Less Third Party votes will help but turnout (& by extension, counting mail in ballots) will be everything
upthread (or maybe it was a different thread) @SaintsInDome2006 was saying it’s coming down to these states (listing 8 or so), so 500 countries. well, no...because 450 of those counties are rural or small towns who historically always vote R. The race will come down to 12-15 urban counties in a half dozen states, and how big they go for Biden. Historically, that is always always always a function of turnout.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Thanks. Fwiw I was thinking of counties/parishes that might have substantial populations of persuadable voters who might be choosing between Trump and Biden in states which could go either way themselves.IDK man
Hillary was a 7:1 mortal lock - everyone was wrong
Less Third Party votes will help but turnout (& by extension, counting mail in ballots) will be everything
upthread (or maybe it was a different thread) @SaintsInDome2006 was saying it’s coming down to these states (listing 8 or so), so 500 countries. well, no...because 450 of those counties are rural or small towns who historically always vote R. The race will come down to 12-15 urban counties in a half dozen states, and how big they go for Biden. Historically, that is always always always a function of turnout.
I agree about your point overall - Milwaukee, Detroit, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Philly could save the country IMO.
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Clinton was +1.7 in the final RCP average for Pennsylvania. Trump won by +0.7 - a swing of 2.4 in the polling.
Final Ohio - Trump +3.5
Michigan was Clinton +3.4, Trump won with +0.3
Really the only big miss of 2016 - Wisconsin was Clinton +6.5, and Trump won by +0.7
Trump was not facing these deficits in 2016. And, to be fair, he is not facing these deficits this year in the week before the election. Except - we see a lot of people already voting.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
Wow. That’s the best PA poll for Biden in some time, and from an A+ pollster no less. ABC/WaPo (another A+ firm) is releasing its own PA poll tonight — will be interesting to see how that one compares.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
So, what can those of us that are out of state do to help this turnout? I'm 2 hours from Philly and 1.5 to Harrisburg. I'm willing to take the day before and the day of election to put my labor to work.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Not sure to be honest. I tried to Google “give rides to polling sites” and “volunteer to shuttle voters”, a half dozen local results showed up for me. But there’s zero chance NYS won’t go blue.
I tried a few different searches specific to the City of Brotherly Love and came up empty.
McBokonon
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
TheMagus
Footballguy
Here's my PA polling data not based in science. I drove around my Main Line township (wealthy suburbs of Philadelphia) today for a while. I counted yard signs about 7 to 1 for Biden. (22 to 3). There were another dozen or so houses with signs supporting BLM and there have been dozens of signs up on lawns since the initial Muslim ban years ago saying "Hate has no home here." I live in a very Jewish area and I had presumed that these signs were coming from the Jewish community or temples in the area.
While this is unscientific and yard signs were a big joke in 2016 which I probably piled on about, I can say this is very rare. I've lived in this area for a while and have never seen political signs before. This is telling me that people in the burbs, in at least my area of PA, are very motivated to the point they are putting cardboard signs on the lawns of their multi-million dollar homes.
Also this isn't a humble brag. My house is one of the most modest in a quarter mile radius. I'm just surrounded by rich folk.
ETA: I should clarify that the "Hate has no home here" signs are in support of diversity and the Muslim community.
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TheMagus
Footballguy
I don't know man and I live here. My original plan in the beforetimes was to volunteer on all the college campuses in my area to register voters, but given the circumstances (global pandemic) I don't know if that is an option.
I am starting to do some research on volunteering and I can PM you on what I find.
Also if Philly pulls this off for the sake of the nation, will everyone stop giving our city crap?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
My brother lives in Merion Station. I know he's interested in helping out too.I don't know man and I live here. My original plan in the beforetimes was to volunteer on all the college campuses in my area to register voters, but given the circumstances (global pandemic) I don't know if that is an option.
I am starting to do some research on volunteering and I can PM you on what I find.
Also if Philly pulls this off for the sake of the nation, will everyone stop giving our city crap?
McBokonon
Footballguy
Phone bank or text bank. If there’s a Congressional candidate that can use help. Even state-level. Or go straight to the Biden camp. You can do it all virtually.
If you want to go there, lit drops are easy. Just going to targeted houses and dropping off candidate literature, or voting information.
Or go here and adopt Pennsylvania.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Alaska poll released today has Trump only +1. Looks like there hasn’t been much polling there. Interesting.
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TheMagus
Footballguy
I think around here it is more about getting out the vote than changing minds. If people get to the polls in record numbers in Philly and the surrounding areas, I think Biden wins PA handily. In these crazy times, I'm just not sure how to do that. I also think it needs to be decisive and getting low risk people to vote in person is going to be key so the vote is decisive and there are not shenanigans with calling the election illegitimate (vote by mail fraud garbage). I am certain it will be safe given I haven't seen a single person around here without a mask on and taking the pandemic seriously in 6 months and I'm sure the poling places will have all necessary safety precautions in play.
I really wanted to volunteer on college campuses in a get out the vote effort, but I'm pretty sure Villanova and others aren't allowing that, understandably.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Ballot chasing is done by phone/text, too. You tell them their closest voting location, etc.
I am nervous about Minnesota despite this poll. Trump campaign signs are everywhere in rural Mn and enthusiasm is at a fever r pitch with Trump boat parades on lakes all over the state. This is encouraging though
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/minnesota-sees-absolute-shattering-record-absentee-ballot-requests/story?id=73101334
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caustic
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
So with the recent Fox poll included, we have two +9s and a +7 in PA. All rated A- or better by FiveThirtyEight. Things are looking good for Biden without a doubt. Maybe I don’t need to worry about Florida as much.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Dude, Florida gonna Florida. Don't count on that state.Juxtatarot said:
Sea Duck
Footballguy
This is VERY misleading. Pre-debate polls don't mean much. In 2016, Trump gained ground in several polls after the first debate.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
But there are so few undecideds this year. And polarization is so high. Do you honestly think the debates are going to change many minds? I expect the Trump supporters to think Trump won and the Biden supporters to think Biden won.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Sea Duck
Footballguy
The polarization is NOT as high as people might think. Don't forget that some of Biden's support comes from former Trump voters. It won't take nearly as much to convince those people to switch back to Trump. If "Old Joe" makes a fool of himself tonight, Trump will EASILY close the gap.
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