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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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18 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

This is VERY misleading. Pre-debate polls don't mean much. In 2016, Trump gained ground in several polls after the first debate.

Nationally, Hillary gained a couple points after the first debate in 2016. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-first-presidential-debate-shake-up-the-race/

Quote

...Not to mention, both Democrats and Republicans are solidly behind their candidate this year, so there’s less room for party members to “come home” to the base.

I’ll also point out that the first debate in 2016 actually seemed to help Hillary Clinton (who was a member of the incumbent party). Clinton led in our national polling average by 1.4 points on the day of the first debate; a week later, her lead was up to 3.7 points.

And while polls do get more accurate the closer we get to November, the difference between labor day polls and election day polls is smaller than you might think. 

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3 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:
29 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

In 2016, Trump gained ground in several polls after the first debate.

Fact check

FACT CHECK:

MICHIGAN: Trump gained 1.1 points in the poll average between the first debate and Election Day

FLORIDA: Trump gained 1.0 points

PENNSYLVANIA: Trump gained 0.3 points

AND, Trump gained EVEN MORE points on Election Day, winning all three states. If Biden makes the slightest stumble, Trump WILL gain ground in all of these states AGAIN. The only question is whether Biden's current "lead" can hold.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

FACT CHECK:

MICHIGAN: Trump gained 1.1 points in the poll average between the first debate and Election Day

FLORIDA: Trump gained 1.0 points

PENNSYLVANIA: Trump gained 0.3 points

AND, Trump gained EVEN MORE points on Election Day, winning all three states. If Biden makes the slightest stumble, Trump WILL gain ground in all of these states AGAIN. The only question is whether Biden's current "lead" can hold.

 

 

Why should any swing voter care about the “slightest stumble”?

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3 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:
16 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:
42 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

In 2016, Trump gained ground in several polls after the first debate.

Fact check

FACT CHECK:

MICHIGAN: Trump gained 1.1 points in the poll average between the first debate and Election Day

FLORIDA: Trump gained 1.0 points

PENNSYLVANIA: Trump gained 0.3 points

AND, Trump gained EVEN MORE points on Election Day, winning all three states. If Biden makes the slightest stumble, Trump WILL gain ground in all of these states AGAIN. The only question is whether Biden's current "lead" can hold.

Oh. State polls.

The first of the 2016 presidential debates took place on September 26, 2016. The second debate took place on October 9, and the third took place on October 19.

The September 16 polling average of 5 polls in the link I provided was Clinton 42.8%, Trump 40.2%.

After the first debate:

The October 4 polling average of the same 5 showed Clinton 44.8%, Trump 40.8%.

Each "gained in several polls after the first debate" - three of the five for each candidate. The Democratic candidate had a significantly larger bounce, though.

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6 minutes ago, Sea Duck said:

FACT CHECK:

MICHIGAN: Trump gained 1.1 points in the poll average between the first debate and Election Day

FLORIDA: Trump gained 1.0 points

PENNSYLVANIA: Trump gained 0.3 points

So this is actually pretty consistent with the graph I just posted, showing national polls getting about 1 point more accurate between labor day and election day. I hardly think this demonstrates the uselessness of pre-debate polling.

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2 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

Why should any swing voter care about the “slightest stumble”?

He's whistling past the graveyard.  This race is over.  In 2016 people, especially a certain kind of people (white, male, no college degree), were looking for any excuse not to vote for Hillary.  She was that obnoxious.  Consequently her numbers were always soft, and "undecideds" broke hard for the iconoclast Trump.

4 years later, and Iconoclast Trump is just an ####### after all, and Joe is not obnoxiously unlikeable like the harpy Hillary.  Joe's numbers are much harder.  Trump is done.

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Trump's approval rating among likely/registered voters is hanging pretty steady at 44.3% right now. The B or higher rated pollsters have it closer to 45% or 46%. I don't think the poll cycles have caught up with the tax return info yet though. Of course there's a debate tonight, so it may be difficult to gauge the impact of the tax info on the polls (or vice versa).

Edited by Gr00vus
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4 hours ago, Sea Duck said:

The polarization is NOT as high as people might think. Don't forget that some of Biden's support comes from former Trump voters. It won't take nearly as much to convince those people to switch back to Trump. If "Old Joe" makes a fool of himself tonight, Trump will EASILY close the gap.

Based on what?  95% of probable voters claim to have their minds made up.  "The gap" here is miniscule compared to other years where it's 20-25% undecided.  

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1 hour ago, proteus126 said:

He's whistling past the graveyard.  This race is over.  In 2016 people, especially a certain kind of people (white, male, no college degree), were looking for any excuse not to vote for Hillary.  She was that obnoxious.  Consequently her numbers were always soft, and "undecideds" broke hard for the iconoclast Trump.

4 years later, and Iconoclast Trump is just an ####### after all, and Joe is not obnoxiously unlikeable like the harpy Hillary.  Joe's numbers are much harder.  Trump is done.

I've tried to explain this numerous times to the hardcore trumpers in my circle. They don't seem to buy into the Hillary hatred, but it was the main cause of where we are now IMO. And now, on top of Joe not having that hatred stigma to him, I believe the Trump hatred crowd is by far greater this go around and will show up on election day. 

My only basis is based on my close family/gf family voting this year compared to 2016. All minds are made up and the debate isn't changing any minds. 

2016: 2 Hillary, 6 Trump, 5 non votes

2020: 8 Biden, 3 Trump, 2 non votes

And I know we've put the yard signage debate to rest, but for reference of the crowd above we have 1 giant Trump flag flying high in a front yard compared to 0 Biden signs.

The polls in OH have showed it all along that it's going to be much tighter than 2016 but nobody really has believed that until recently. I can't believe the 2 family breakdowns above of 2 very typical Ohio families is an outlier. 

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3 minutes ago, Widbil83 said:

President Trump leads MI in new poll.

Trump 46.7

Biden 46.0

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-0920/

That's from a week ago, and it's actually a bad sign for Trump. Trafalgar consistently overestimated Trump's support in their 2016 polling — they were over by 2.8 points in Florida, over by 1.4 points in North Carolina, and over by 1.7 points in Michigan.

So if they're only showing Trump with a zero-point-seven lead in Michigan, after all of their double secret probationary unskewing, then it means that Biden is in good shape.

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5 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

That's from a week ago, and it's actually a bad sign for Trump. Trafalgar consistently overestimated Trump's support in their 2016 polling — they were over by 2.8 points in Florida, over by 1.4 points in North Carolina, and over by 1.7 points in Michigan.

So if they're only showing Trump with a zero-point-seven lead in Michigan, after all of their double secret probationary unskewing, then it means that Biden is in good shape.

That same Trafalgar poll was 46.6% Trump 45.2% Biden in August (14-23).  I wouldn't see this September poll as good news if I were a Trump supporter.

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Counting yard signs may not be a good way to conduct a poll, but they do work, increasing a candidate’s vote share by 1.7% on average!

The Effects of Lawn Signs on Voting Outcomes: Evidence from Four Randomized Field Experiments
Although lawn signs rank among the most widely used campaign tactics, little scholarly attention has been paid to the question of whether they actually generate votes. Working in collaboration with a congressional candidate, a mayoral candidate, an independent expenditure campaign directed against a gubernatorial candidate, and a candidate for county commissioner, we tested the effects of lawn signs by planting them in randomly selected voting precincts. Electoral results pooled over all four studies suggest that signs increased advertising candidates’ vote shares. Results also provide some evidence that the effects of lawn signs spill over into adjacent untreated voting precincts.

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2 minutes ago, caustic said:

Rasmussen national poll:

Biden 51%
Trump 43%

:unsure:

Whoa Nellie. RASMUSSEN had Biden up by 8? That’s so very, very bad for Trump.

Here’s hoping to an absolute blowout, to avoid Trump saying he doesn’t accept the results. Let’s hit 400.

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32 minutes ago, caustic said:

Quinnipiac (B+):

SOUTH CAROLINA
Trump 48%
Biden 47%

Quinnipiac has a bit of a Dem house effect, but that is...something. Trump won by 14 points in ‘16.

I think Harrison has a slugger's chance here, and is driving some of this result (bringing more supporters into the tent, so to speak).

Turnout, turnout, turnout (and it still might not be enough).

 

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On 9/29/2020 at 2:31 PM, Widbil83 said:

President Trump leads MI in new poll.

Trump 46.7

Biden 46.0

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-0920/

 

On 9/29/2020 at 2:44 PM, Joe Summer said:

That's from a week ago, and it's actually a bad sign for Trump. Trafalgar consistently overestimated Trump's support in their 2016 polling — they were over by 2.8 points in Florida, over by 1.4 points in North Carolina, and over by 1.7 points in Michigan.

So if they're only showing Trump with a zero-point-seven lead in Michigan, after all of their double secret probationary unskewing, then it means that Biden is in good shape.

 

On 9/29/2020 at 2:52 PM, Gr00vus said:

That same Trafalgar poll was 46.6% Trump 45.2% Biden in August (14-23).  I wouldn't see this September poll as good news if I were a Trump supporter.

 

That same Trafalgar poll is now (Sep 26-28) Biden 49% Trump 47%. Fivethirtyeight gives Trafalgar a C- rating.

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Our first post-debate national poll comes from Change Research (C-), showing Biden with a 13-point, 54-41 lead. Their last national poll had Biden up 9. Obviously not a great pollster though, so we need to wait for some more data.

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Some big early numbers for early Florida voting for the Dems. 
 

Link

 

Quote:

Wow. Look at these returned vote by mail numbers in Florida. @FlaDems +91,340 vote advantage.

DEM: 184,552 (7.6% return rate)
GOP: 93,212 (5.6%)
N/3/I: 64,119

Total: 341,877

In 2016, this far out from E-Day, GOP held +1,304 advantage with only 7,487 mail ballots returned.

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2 hours ago, Yo Mama said:

Some big early numbers for early Florida voting for the Dems. 
 

Link

 

Quote:

Wow. Look at these returned vote by mail numbers in Florida. @FlaDems +91,340 vote advantage.

DEM: 184,552 (7.6% return rate)
GOP: 93,212 (5.6%)
N/3/I: 64,119

Total: 341,877

In 2016, this far out from E-Day, GOP held +1,304 advantage with only 7,487 mail ballots returned.

If Trump is waylaid by COVID, in person  turnout for the GOP will plummet.  That means the mail-in advantage of the Dems el m may carry some races that would have otherwise gone GOP.

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More I've thought about it more open I've gotten to voting Biden and GOP down ticket assuming Barrett is confirmed

I don't see how a country can take 4 more years of this and I don't see what's left of the Republican Party after 8 years of Trump

I'd probably oppose Biden soon after he's elected but still: overall...

An endorsement from George W Bush, Romney or Paul Ryan would probably clinch my vote

Court packing and gun rights still scare me though

Edited by KChusker
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1 hour ago, KChusker said:

More I've thought about it more open I've gotten to voting Biden and GOP down ticket assuming Barrett is confirmed

I don't see how a country can take 4 more years of this and I don't see what's left of the Republican Party after 8 years of Trump

I'd probably oppose Biden soon after he's elected but still: overall...

An endorsement from George W Bush, Romney or Paul Ryan would probably clinch my vote

Court packing and gun rights still scare me though

I'm in the same boat, to some extent.  Get Trump out - he's awful - but I'm not comfortable voting Blue into office up and down the ticket.  And that's OK.

I will absolutely vote for Biden.  However from 1988 to 2018 I was a registered Republican.  That means that I have a very long history of not appreciating the Democrat "you're a victim and I'm your daddy" message and their general attempted balkanization of the electorate.  The perpetual hand-wringing over every topic under the sun, saying how awful it all is.  Very little optimism - there is always some injustice we must all care about with all our being.  It is always existential!  Maybe I don't want all that in my face all the time.  Tell me something good once in a while!  Lie to me!  🙂

I switched to Democrat in early 2019 (wifey did same this year).  I wanted to have a voice.  The specific issue was the government shutdown, which was just so dumb and so needlessly (even gleefully) harmful.  My switch had been coming for a while, however.  I know, I know, nobody cares about your fantasy team or your personal political story.

Once Biden is in office I'll probably be unhappy with him and his party.  If the Republicans can somehow turn back the clock to GHWB I'll VERY happily return.  If they remain negative, xenophobic, and know-nothing (my opinion, maybe not someone else's) at the core I won't.  A little of that around the periphery, well, they've always had a little.  Perfection is unattainable.

Best to all on each of your political journeys!

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14 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

NYT/Siena

Florida

Biden - 47 +5
Trump - 42

Pennsylvania 

Biden - 49 +7
Trump - 42

Only 21% of voters said that Trump won the debate. Meanwhile, 65% disapproved of his conduct and 48% said they supported Trump less afterwards.

Also:

“The surveys began Wednesday, before the early Friday announcement that President Trump had contracted the coronavirus. There was modest evidence of a shift in favor of Mr. Biden in interviews on Friday, including in Arizona where a Times/Siena survey is in progress, after controlling for the demographic and political characteristics of the respondents.

One day of interviews is not enough to evaluate the consequences of a major political development, though, and it may be several days or longer before even the initial effects of Mr. Trump’s diagnosis can be ascertained by pollsters.”

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I live in a well educated upper middle class city between Detroit and Ann Arbor thats has almost no diversity. Historically it’s been a GOP strong spot. The educated white, well employed, economy first suburban voters. Trump is going to get his butt handed to him here. There’s 5x more BLM signs than there are Trump signs. There’s actually less Trump signs now than there were a month ago. Tons of Biden/down ballot Dems signs. I’ve had Dems come to my door and hand out flyers with who to vote for. I haven’t seen any GOP ground game. I suspect Trump is still doing ok in more rural and working class areas of the State but I think the white collar suburbs that the GOP typically relies on is a lost cause for him in Michigan.

 

Thats my unofficial local polling.

Edited by Ilov80s
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6 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

USC tracking poll shows a narrowing race

14-day

Biden 51
Trump 44

7-day

Biden 49
Trump 46

As with many polls, this has been both panned and praised by both sides.  :shrug:

Nate Cohn@Nate_Cohn · 5m

USC updated its tracker--fixing a technical error--and now shows Biden gaining, rather than steadily losing his lead. He's up by 10 instead of 7 this AM

https://election.usc.edu

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On 10/2/2020 at 5:01 PM, Yo Mama said:

Some big early numbers for early Florida voting for the Dems. 
 

Link

 

Quote:

Wow. Look at these returned vote by mail numbers in Florida. @FlaDems +91,340 vote advantage.

DEM: 184,552 (7.6% return rate)
GOP: 93,212 (5.6%)
N/3/I: 64,119

Total: 341,877

In 2016, this far out from E-Day, GOP held +1,304 advantage with only 7,487 mail ballots returned.

I am not an election honk, I don't follow this stuff very well.

The above seems pretty massive to me. 

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More:

2. Voters, by a 2-1 margin, say Biden did a better job at the debate

Biden better 49%
Trump better 24%
Neither better 17%

 

3. 73% of voters say the debate make no difference in their vote
 

More likely to support Trump after debate 6%
More likely to support Biden 19%
Made no difference 73%

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Most reliable voting bloc (in terms of participation %):

 

Holy wow: NBC/WSJ poll finds Biden up 27 (!) among SENIORS.

“The biggest declines for Trump in the poll come from seniors who are now backing Biden by a 62 percent-to-35 percent margin”

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9 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Most reliable voting bloc (in terms of participation %):

 

Holy wow: NBC/WSJ poll finds Biden up 27 (!) among SENIORS.

“The biggest declines for Trump in the poll come from seniors who are now backing Biden by a 62 percent-to-35 percent margin”

Insert gif of wrestling guy flying off top turnbuckle

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Reuter’s/Ipsos poll was taken Friday and yesterday (post Trump COVID) and Biden was plus 10. It contains this nugget:
 

Quote

 the poll found that 65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that “if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected

 

Edited by Juxtatarot
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9 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Reuter’s/Ipsos poll was taken Friday and yesterday (post Trump COVID) and Biden was plus 10. It contains this nugget:

Quote

the poll found that 65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that “if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected

 

Only 5 in 10?  :no: 

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