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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread


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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Most reliable voting bloc (in terms of participation %):

 

Holy wow: NBC/WSJ poll finds Biden up 27 (!) among SENIORS.

“The biggest declines for Trump in the poll come from seniors who are now backing Biden by a 62 percent-to-35 percent margin”

Even if remotely accurate, this will make it a landslide of historic proportions. What is the worst loss ever for an incumbent?

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Headlines from new NBC/WSJ poll (conducted after the debate, 9/30-10/1)

1. Biden's national lead among registered voters expands from 8pts to 14pts

Biden 53%
Trump 39%
 

(Was Biden 51%, Trump 43% in Sept poll before debate)

Link to WSJ article that discusses the poll in more detail.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-scores-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-poll-after-debate-11601816400?st=imfkpjbykmrdr34

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54 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

Even if remotely accurate, this will make it a landslide of historic proportions. What is the worst loss ever for an incumbent?

There are still many states that are a lock for Trump; at least 125 electoral votes at a minimum. Most likely scenarios have him at 163-187, with a best case scenario being 203. He needs to flip AZ/FL/GA/NC or OH/PA/WI won’t matter, though.

Needs a perfect storm and that seems highly unlikely.

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2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

There are still many states that are a lock for Trump; at least 125 electoral votes at a minimum. Most likely scenarios have him at 163-187, with a best case scenario being 203. He needs to flip AZ/FL/GA/NC or OH/PA/WI won’t matter, though.

Needs a perfect storm and that seems highly unlikely.

The most frequent outcome in the 538 model has Trump around 125. Still not that likely, but realistic.

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6 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

The most frequent outcome in the 538 model has Trump around 125. Still not that likely, but realistic.

270 to win has about 9 predictive models. Some are polling, some are consensus (they’ll come into alignment more as we get closer to the election.)

The one thing I’m worried about the most is turnout and especially mail-in ballots. Pollsters claim they’ve corrected the modeling to account for the underreported Trump support in the last election. I’m dubious. And I figure they’ll pull any shenanigans they can think of to suppress votes in Atlanta, Charlotte, Philly, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee.

Its seemingly the same story in many close states. Large urban areas with a good turnout will swing to powder blue; if they don’t have a cushion from that, those states could all turn pink.

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4 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

270 to win has about 9 predictive models. Some are polling, some are consensus (they’ll come into alignment more as we get closer to the election.)

The one thing I’m worried about the most is turnout and especially mail-in ballots. Pollsters claim they’ve corrected the modeling to account for the underreported Trump support in the last election. I’m dubious. And I figure they’ll pull any shenanigans they can think of to suppress votes in Atlanta, Charlotte, Philly, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee.

Its seemingly the same story in many close states. Large urban areas with a good turnout will swing to powder blue; if they don’t have a cushion from that, those states could all turn pink.

I suspect the corrections for 2016 turnout are an overreaction. I think they are underestimating the Biden lead.

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29 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

 And I figure they’ll pull any shenanigans they can think of to suppress votes in Atlanta, Charlotte, Philly, Cleveland, Detroit, Milwaukee.

 

As we get closer to the election in the next few weeks and it becomes clearer to most folks how this is going to turn out, I think there will be less talk of shenanigans in general. People aren’t going to put themselves on the line for a Trump win if it’s not going to happen. 

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3 minutes ago, Drunken Cowboy said:

That is a big result for Biden. There had been some evidence of a tightening race there. 

That was pre-debate, this is now.

If this is accurate I don't think Trump can make up the 8 point difference is less than a month before election day.

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Just now, squistion said:

That was pre-debate, this is now.

If this is accurate I don't think Trump can make up the 8 point difference is less than a month before election day.

FWIW, their pre-debate survey of AZ had Biden up 9, which was also much better than the average poll. For one reason or another, NYT/Siena has been pretty favorable for Biden in AZ this cycle.

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8 minutes ago, squistion said:

That was pre-debate, this is now.

If this is accurate I don't think Trump can make up the 8 point difference is less than a month before election day.

Cook has Arizona as lean D, but if another high quality pool backs this up, I think they move to likely D.

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10 minutes ago, caustic said:

FWIW, their pre-debate survey of AZ had Biden up 9, which was also much better than the average poll. For one reason or another, NYT/Siena has been pretty favorable for Biden in AZ this cycle.

Looking at what fivethirtyeight is tracking for this race,  it seems like this NYT/Siena poll is the first they've had on the race for a week or so. It'll be interesting to see if / how the other polls change, but Biden +1 to +4 was where things seemed to be.

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WDIV/Detroit News (B/C):

MICHIGAN
Biden 48%
Trump 39%

Looking under the hood, this jumps out: 

“There has been a major shift among voters over the age of 65 towards Joe Biden. Older voters now support Biden over Trump by a margin of 59.1%-29.2% — a nearly 30-point lead for Joe Biden. Biden led senior voters by 7.5% in the post-convention survey. Senior voters have shifted by 22 points since early September.”

Normal caveats w/r/t margin of error on crosstabs apply here, but that is a pretty awful result for Trump.

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According to data from the last month or so, what swing states is Trump actually winning in?

It appears Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina are all very close, but most of these are states a Republican (including Trump in 16) should be winning. States like Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan all seem to be solidly in the Biden camp. 

Even if the polling is wrong in the state polling again in some of these states, he may be too far down for it to matter.

Questions on the polling data:

- Is there a secret Trump vote that's even more pronounced than currently thought? I would say that I have had conversations with some people who believe this, but that's enough to claim any large polling errors.

- Most polling show Democrats are being sampled higher than Republicans. For example, I think the NBC/WSJ poll showed 45% Democrats and 36% Republicans. Why are these samples tilted to this degree? Does this suggest that pollsters believe there are more Democrats than Republicans, and sample more of them as a result? If not, what is the reasoning for this?

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35 minutes ago, cubd8 said:

Questions on the polling data:

- Is there a secret Trump vote that's even more pronounced than currently thought? I would say that I have had conversations with some people who believe this, but that's enough to claim any large polling errors.

- Most polling show Democrats are being sampled higher than Republicans. For example, I think the NBC/WSJ poll showed 45% Democrats and 36% Republicans. Why are these samples tilted to this degree? Does this suggest that pollsters believe there are more Democrats than Republicans, and sample more of them as a result? If not, what is the reasoning for this?

1.) The strongest form of the "shy Trump voter" theory -- that Trump voters are afraid to express their intentions to pollsters for fear of being judged -- seems to be wrong. If it was true, we'd expect Trump to perform better in automated/online polls in which respondents don't have to talk to a live person, but we don't actually see much of a gap between live-caller and non-live-caller polls.

That's not to say the polls can't be underestimating Trump support, though. If they are, the main reason is probably non-response bias. White people with low levels of social trust and no college degree are much less likely to answer the phone when an unknown number is calling, and that's a very pro-Trump demographic. Undersampling these people was the main source of polling error in 2016. To correct this, lots of pollsters now weight their samples by educational attainment -- this fixes some (but not all) of the problem. And even if white/non-college voters are undersampled again this year, it probably won't result in quite as much error, because Biden is doing much better with that demographic relative to Clinton.

2.) Based on the General Social Survey and American National Election Survey, two gold-standard nonpartisan surveys, there are in fact more people who identify as Democrats -- and there have been for decades. The most recent figures where D+8 (GSS) and D+7 (ANES).  Different pollsters have different methods of handling partisanship. For example, when polling states that have party-based registration, NYT/Siena uses a quota. In their recently released poll of AZ they purposefully collected a sample that was R+4 in registration. 

You can't do that in national polls, though, since you don't actually register by party in 19 states. You can ask for party ID, as they did in that NBC/WSJ poll, but most pollsters don't weight by it because it's fairly volatile (and is often just a lagging indicator of voting intent). National pollsters will typically weight by more reliable variables like age, race, sex, etc. and sometimes that results in a sample that has a strange partisan skew. I wouldn't worry about it much though, because the national polls are some of the best we have. Even in 2016, the national polls were very accurate despite the state polls having some issues. Usually when folks begin to pick apart the partisan composition of a poll, it means they're trying to discredit some bad results for their preferred candidate.

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53 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn · 27m

Biden leads Trump by 16 points, 57 to 41 percent, in a new CNN/SSRS poll...

Obviously we're probably in outlier territory up here, though NBC/WSJ had Biden+14 this weekend and the sample is D+5

That is a crazy number. :eek:

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2 minutes ago, Hugh Jass said:

That is a crazy number. :eek:

yeah - Polls have been moving in that direction, but still a little early to completely buy into it.

 

But, elections are often a confidence game, where voters tend to flock to the candidate they think is going to win.  And, if there are a few more post-debate polls in this range, the Trump Party is in real trouble up and down the ballot.  These polls will become a self-fulling prophecy.

And, for the down-ballot candidates - most are already pot committed to a Trump strategy - so this has to be very scary for them to see, knowing its too late to reconsider their election strategy.

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Silver's thoughts:

 

Nate Silver@NateSilver538

Now, it's pretty clear that Biden has gained ground, from +7 before to +8 or probably more like +9 once we've thrown today's polls into our average, but with a +8 or a +9 you're going to get your occasional +3s (TIPP) or +16s (CNN) and that's OK.

 

In fact, it's good! It's good that pollsters are publishing these results instead of sitting on them. And this is one of those times when a large movement in the race is *plausible*. But we have a lot of polling at it mostly suggests more modest gains for Biden.

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

yeah - Polls have been moving in that direction, but still a little early to completely buy into it.

 

But, elections are often a confidence game, where voters tend to flock to the candidate they think is going to win.  And, if there are a few more post-debate polls in this range, the Trump Party is in real trouble up and down the ballot.  These polls will become a self-fulling prophecy.

And, for the down-ballot candidates - most are already pot committed to a Trump strategy - so this has to be very scary for them to see, knowing its too late to reconsider their election strategy.

The 65+ percentages are just eye popping in the last two polls.  Trump's support with that group has simply fallen off a cliff and to have any chance he has to stop that bleeding.

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West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.

:lol:

 

Presidential vote
choice: 
Early October

              RV.      HLT.    LLT               
Biden    54%    54%    53%
Trump    42%    43%    45%
                
Late August               
Biden    49%    49%    48%
Trump    45%    46%    47%
                
Mid July               
Biden    53%    52%    51%
Trump    40%    42%    44%

 

RV - registered voters
HLT - High Likely Turnout
LLT - Low Likely Turnout

 

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_100620/

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.

:lol:

              RV.      HLT.    LLT               
Biden    54%    54%    53%
Trump    42%    43%    45%
              

A+ pollster -- that's disastrous for Trump. Monmouth consistently produced some of his best polls last month.

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It's just really, really hard to see Trump winning at this point even with possible sampling error and his Electoral College advantage.  Even if there is another "surprise" type event, movement in the polls have been modest this season.  Trump is running out of time and people are already voting.

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4 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

It's just really, really hard to see Trump winning at this point even with possible sampling error and his Electoral College advantage.  Even if there is another "surprise" type event, movement in the polls have been modest this season.  Trump is running out of time and people are already voting.

Don't count chickens, boys.

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1 minute ago, Juxtatarot said:

It's just really, really hard to see Trump winning at this point even with possible sampling error and his Electoral College advantage.  Even if there is another "surprise" type event, movement in the polls have been modest this season.  Trump is running out of time and people are already voting.

Setting aside the Electoral College for a moment - Trump is on pace to have the highest national vote deficit of any incumbent president.

 

Carter lost the national vote by 8.4M

Hoover - 7M

GHWB - 5.8M

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3 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Setting aside the Electoral College for a moment - Trump is on pace to have the highest national vote deficit of any incumbent president.

 

Carter lost the national vote by 8.4M

Hoover - 7M

GHWB - 5.8M

Yeah, but you have to divide by 330m, or 7.8b to scale it properly.  Your choice which denominator to choose, really.

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25 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Approval with likely voters still hanging steady at a 43.8% adjusted average at fivethirtyeight.

That said, today's Rassmussen total approval rating of 45% is the lowest it's been in their poll since late July.

 

 

One of the things I've found odd is FiveThirtyEight has Trump's approval trending up but his polling number haven't.

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8 minutes ago, caustic said:

SurveyUSA (A)

NATIONAL
Biden 53%
Trump 43%

Interviews conducted after Trump was hospitalized were Biden +16.

It will be interesting to see the long-term ramifications here - is this a permanent shift in voter thinking, or a temporary move only while he was physically in the hospital?

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1 hour ago, The Z Machine said:

Don't count chickens, boys.

Definitely not. Here's the 538 breakdown for 2016. It can't be apples to apples obviously, but Clinton was at 78% chance to win 4 years ago. She spiked way up after the Access Hollywood tapes, which were released on October 7. Trump closed a ton of ground after the Comey announcement on October 28. There's still basically a lifetime to go at this point.

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Some other nuggets from the surveyUSA poll:

13% of Trump voters say they will protest the outcome of the election if Biden wins, 5% say they will take to the streets. 77%, though, say they will accept President-elect Biden.

Of those familiar with Roe v. Wade (81% of respondents), 62% say it should remain the law of the land while only 23% want it overturned. A plurality of Trump supporters (40%) want it to be upheld.

Among "very conservative" voters, 26% say "the law is what the President of the United States says it is." This is up from 6% in October 2019. 72% say "no person is above the law," down from 90% a year ago.

Biden leads suburban *men* 51-44. He has a 21-point lead with suburban women, 58-37.

Voters were asked whether, financially, they were "falling behind," "just getting by," "making ends meet," "setting aside some for a rainy day," or "prospering." Trump leads only among those who say they are prospering.

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1 minute ago, Rirruto said:

Definitely not. Here's the 538 breakdown for 2016. It can't be apples to apples obviously, but Clinton was at 78% chance to win 4 years ago. She spiked way up after the Access Hollywood tapes, which were released on October 7. Trump closed a ton of ground after the Comey announcement on October 28. There's still basically a lifetime to go at this point.

All valid points, of course.

But I would posit this year is different for three reasons:

1.  Most polls have adjusted their methodology in 2020 to account for a shift in voters who are more favorable towards Trump - meaning there is unlikely to be another "hidden" shift.

2.  In 2016, voters were voting on the promise of what a Trump presidency might look like - now everyone knows what a Trump presidency looks like, and you either like it, or you don't.  Nobody is really voting on potential any more.

3.  There is a lot of early voting going on this year - those votes are already cast.

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43 minutes ago, caustic said:

Over the last ~2 weeks, we've gotten five A-A+ polls of PA:

Biden +10
Biden +7
Biden +9
Biden +9
Biden +7

Averages out to Biden +8.4. On election day 2016, Clinton had an average lead of 2.3% in PA polls.

The spread isn't as eye-popping as the fact that Biden is over 50%. Hillary's average was 46.8% on Election Day. Plus, there were 2 polls in early November 2016 that were favorable to Trump....but he hasn't had a favorable poll in PA in 2020 since August.

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38 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

One of the things I've found odd is FiveThirtyEight has Trump's approval trending up but his polling number haven't.

I've noticed that too. It seemed like approval rating had a good correlation with results in 2016, I'm following this number this year to see if that is the case in this election too. It makes me temper expectations in regard to what the other polling numbers indicate.

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1 minute ago, Joe Summer said:

The spread isn't as eye-popping as the fact that Biden is over 50%. Hillary's average was 46.8% on Election Day. Plus, there were 2 polls in early November 2016 that were favorable to Trump....but he hasn't had a favorable poll in PA in 2020 since August.

I feel reasonably confident now saying Biden is going to get over 50% of the total popular vote. Even in states Trump is still likely to carry easily it won't be by the margins he did in 2016, and large states like Texas and Georgia will be tighter. That combined with fewer votes going to third parties should easily tip Biden 2-3% points above Clinton's 48.5%. 

 

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On 10/4/2020 at 9:37 AM, Sinn Fein said:

Most reliable voting bloc (in terms of participation %):

 

Holy wow: NBC/WSJ poll finds Biden up 27 (!) among SENIORS.

“The biggest declines for Trump in the poll come from seniors who are now backing Biden by a 62 percent-to-35 percent margin”

Might have something to do with the fact his SS approach would have it completely bankrupted in a mere 2-3 years.  Just spitballin' here.

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For those that put stock and faith in 538's model (which is certainly open for debate), they have Biden sitting at 82% to win. On a state by state basis, here are the states where they have him 80% or better to win . . .

DC - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 75.5 in polls
MA - 11 delegates - 99% to win - Up 36.3 in polls
MD - 10 delegates - 99% to win - Up 31.7 in polls
VT - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 31.2 in polls
CA - 55 delegates - 99% to win - Up 30.8 in polls
NY - 29 delegates - 99% to win - Up 29.8 in polls
HI - 4 delegates - 99% to win - Up 29.6 in polls
WA - 12 delegates - 99% to win - Up 26.8 in polls
DE - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 24.1 in polls
CT - 7 delegates - 99% to win - Up 23.6 in polls
RI - 3 delegates - 99% to win - Up 23.2 in polls
IL - 20 delegates - 99% to win - Up 17.4 in polls
NJ - 14 delegates - 98% to win - Up 30.0 in polls
VA - 13 delegates - 98% to win - Up 11.8 in polls
ME1 - 1 delegate - 97% to win - Up 24.6 in polls
OR - 7 delegates - 96% to win - Up 18.4 in polls
NM - 5 delegates - 96% to win - Up 13.1 in polls
CO - 9 delegates - 92% to win - Up 12.3 in polls
MN - 10 delegates - 90% to win - Up 9.1 in polls
MI - 16 delegates - 90% to win - Up 7.3 in polls
ME - 2 delegates - 89% to win - Up 15.2 in polls
NV - 6 delegates - 84% to win - Up 6.6 in polls
PA - 20 delegates - 84% to win - Up 6.6 in polls
WI - 10 delegates - 83% to win - Up 6.9 in polls
NH - 4 delegates - 80% to win - Up 9.7 in polls
TOTAL - 278 delegates

Also currently leading in:
NE2 - 1 delegate - 70% to win - Up 6.2 in polls
AZ - 11 delegates - 66% to win - Up 4.4 in polls
FL - 29 delegates - 65% to win - Up 3.3 in polls
NC - 15 delegates - 58% to win - Up 2.0 in polls
ME2 - 1 delegate - 53% to win - Up 3.9 in polls
OH - 18 delegates - 51% to win - Up 0.5 in polls

I won't bother listing the other states that Trump is leading in ( a couple of which could go either way). Even if Trump won all the ones I didn't list AND all the ones on that short list above including OH and FL, Trump still would need to break into that longer list to win to get to 270 delegates. That would mean Trump would have to win one or two states on that list to pull off the victory. Maybe the polls are off (certainly possible), maybe something happens that swings the polls some (also a possibility), but Trump certainly looks like he is running out of paths to win the election if the polls are accurate (which is always open to debate). Of course, Trump could also run interference to challenge the results and claim fraud, but he seemingly is far enough behind that even allegations and recounts may not come into play (again, if the polls are close to accurate).

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21 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Might have something to do with the fact his SS approach would have it completely bankrupted in a mere 2-3 years.  Just spitballin' here.

Might also have something to do with the fact that this pandemic has the biggest impact among the elderly and Trump has done worse than nothing about it.

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