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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
whoknew
Footballguy
PennStater77
Footballguy
Poor Joe don’t even remember Mitt Romney.
https://twitter.com/realjameswoods/status/1315709797212196864?s=21
or that is he is running for President
https://twitter.com/steveguest/status/1315736587586674688?s=21
https://twitter.com/realjameswoods/status/1315709797212196864?s=21
or that is he is running for President
https://twitter.com/steveguest/status/1315736587586674688?s=21
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
What does this have to do with polling?PennStater77 said:
caustic
Footballguy
Morning Consult (B/C) released a ton of state polls today:
ARIZONA Biden +3 (49-46)
COLORADO Biden +14 (54-40)
FLORIDA Biden +5 (51-46)
GEORGIA Trump +2 (47-49)
MICHIGAN Biden +7 (51-44)
MINNESOTA Biden +6 (50-44)
NORTH CAROLINA Biden +4 (50-46)
OHIO Trump +3 (46-49)
PENNSYLVANIA Biden +8 (52-44)
SOUTH CAROLINA Trump +12 (42-54)
TEXAS Trump +2 (47-49)
WISCONSIN Biden +7 (51-44)
Nothing too spectacular. Like other state polls, these point to more of an ~8 point national lead for Biden rather than the >10 point lead he has in most national polling averages.
ARIZONA Biden +3 (49-46)
COLORADO Biden +14 (54-40)
FLORIDA Biden +5 (51-46)
GEORGIA Trump +2 (47-49)
MICHIGAN Biden +7 (51-44)
MINNESOTA Biden +6 (50-44)
NORTH CAROLINA Biden +4 (50-46)
OHIO Trump +3 (46-49)
PENNSYLVANIA Biden +8 (52-44)
SOUTH CAROLINA Trump +12 (42-54)
TEXAS Trump +2 (47-49)
WISCONSIN Biden +7 (51-44)
Nothing too spectacular. Like other state polls, these point to more of an ~8 point national lead for Biden rather than the >10 point lead he has in most national polling averages.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
This plus the Graham +6 poll tells me that Harrison is a long-shot at best. His fundraising is fantastic but unfortunately it won't unseat Graham this go-round.
massraider
Footballguy
Florida numbers should be in early, and if it goes Biden, we might see a 2nd round TKO at president, and everyone spending rest of night focusing on the undercard (majority race).
McBokonon
Footballguy
They’ll have to allow for some coverage of Trump handcuffing himself to his White House tanning bed.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I'd much rather point to Florida as proof of a Biden victory than the vote counting cluster#### that PA, WI and MI will be. You may be right that it might not end up mattering to him but I think it will for other Republicans.As if that matters that he said something before and was expected to be held to it
Van Dyman
Footballguy
What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/
Agreed. This is ok to talk about assuming the video is real but put it in the correct thread talking about Biden.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Well, Clinton's highest chances of winning down the stretch was 88.1% on 10/17/2016. That was between the 2nd and 3rd debates. By 11/4, she was down to 64.5%. I don't remember what caused that big a drop off in a little more than 2 weeks.
On 10/17/2016, 538 had the electoral votes projected at 346 to 192 in favor of Clinton. As of today, they have things projected at 346 to 192 in favor of Biden. Biden right now is listed as having an 86% chance to win. On this day in 2016, Clinton was given a 86% to win. That has to be a pretty ominous coincidence.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Comey: I was sure Clinton would win election when I reopened email inquiry
Kind of a big deal 11 days before the election
Marauder
Footballguy
My recollection is that Nate Silver adjusted his model a week or two before the election in 2016 because he felt he was not properly accounting for the potential variance due to the large number of undecideds. That moved it down from the 80's to about 70%. That's why I think it's apples to oranges comparing it to the same date in 2016. Two different models.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
EZD222
Footballguy
This. I've been listening to all the 538 podcasts. He consistently reiterates that you can't compare the two models because of refinements. The major difference is the 20% of votes in 2016 that were being tracked as undecided or independents. Those folks in the end broke heavily for Trump. That population is much smaller this time around and have broken more evenly or for Biden. So even if Republicans have more registrations this time around it doesn't make up for the solidification of the 20%.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
My concern is that 538 is not accounting for voter suppression tactics in swing states (Florida, Pennsylvania, even Texas), nor is it accounting for issues involving heavy use of absentee ballots (higher likelihood of ballot rejection, higher likelihood of USPS failure, etc.).
I also don't think that any of the pollsters are accounting for the high level of enthusiasm of Trump's base.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
@Football Jones and I have a $50 bet with even money with him picking Trump. He might want in on this action.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Sorry if not clear. Just saying there are ways for Trump fans to make money betting thru legit legitimate sports books.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It could be one of those things where one hopes to lose but is happy to pay the ransom.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
The Senate control odds are even more surprising than the Presidential odds to me.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Most of the sites are relatively similar . . .
Election Betting Odds sit - Dems 61% to control the Senate, 87% to control the House.
538 - Dems 69% to control the Senate, 95% to control the House.
RealClear - Dems favored to hold 51 Senate seats, Dems ahead 214-186 with 34 toss ups in the House.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
It's a lot tougher (in my case impossible) to follow the various senate races well enough to have a solid overview of where things stand nationally, so I hadn't been paying attention. I had just been assuming the Democrats couldn't make enough inroads without also losing some seats to flip things. Seeing the lean, and the consensus about it is surprising for me.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Cook Political Report will give you a good idea at a glance. Democrats will probably lose Alabama but look good elsewhere (maybe MI will be a problem but I don’t think so). Meanwhile, Republicans have a ton of contested races including beingl behind in Arizona and Colorado.
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![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
I fully expect Trump to get an Election Day bump similar to what he got in 2016. Maybe it won't be enough to win Michigan or Wisconsin, but I think he wins Florida easily and I think Pennsylvania is very much in play.
EZD222
Footballguy
I also think the polling margin of error is going to extremely favor Trump in all those potential tipping point states, but even if that's 3-4% (ie max) Biden still pulls this out. Still terrified, but for an odd reason feel more comfortable about Dems pulling this out in 2020 than what I saw/felt in 2016.
I grew up blue collared, but now live in SF so I had direct visibility in my network of that rising Trump tide that most people in their own bubble didn't see.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
I honestly never know what to think with these polls but why do you think the bolded?
[scooter]
Footballguy
1. incumbents tend to get a bump. (Because voters decide that they'd rather stick with the devil they know)
2. Republicans tend to get a bump. (Close races tend to go to Republicans these days.)
3. Donald Trump tends to get a bump. I still don't think the pollsters have accounted for all of the shy Trump voters.
4. Trump's seemingly quick recovery from COVID will allow him to campaign hard and heavy in swing states.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
1. I think most undecided voters this year will not vote. The undecideds I have heard basically are lifelong Republicans who want Trump out.
2. I am not sure there is evidence for this.
3. I do not believe there are shy Trump voters.
4. As a general rule, across Trump's time in office, his approval goes down the more visible he is.
I think a lot of #1 will become ‘shy Biden voters’. Vote for Biden because they want to make sure Trump doesn’t get another 4 years but will never admit they did it.
jm192
Footballguy
I do think people are "shy" or scared to acknowledge they are going to vote for Trump.
You see the "It's ok to punch Nazi" memes. And then the "nazi" is a Trump supporter. You see people punching old men in MAGA hats. I live in Kentucky, which will almost certainly go red. But a lot of people aren't putting signs up this year. Not like they were in 2016. Why? I've had conversations with people that have expressed their concern about the trouble that comes from wearing a MAGA hat or having a Trump sign.
Whether or not that will make up for the poll gaps, eh.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Reports of huge amounts of early voting in Texas: Tweet link
Wow. Polls still haven’t closed because of long lines in Harris County (#Houston), but with 128,000 voters and counting we have surpassed the entire state of Georgia’s first-day turnout yesterday. Our old record was 68k. Just remarkable.
Wow. Polls still haven’t closed because of long lines in Harris County (#Houston), but with 128,000 voters and counting we have surpassed the entire state of Georgia’s first-day turnout yesterday. Our old record was 68k. Just remarkable.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Saw similar reports from Austin and also continued high numbers of new/early voters in Florida.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Speaking of which: Nate Silver
Gallup has a net +53 on whether voters are more enthusiastic or less enthusiastic than usual to vote, which I believe is the largest spread ever recorded on that question. This is a pretty reliable predictor of turnout.
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